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1 hour ago, Week said:

The United States' standing in the world continues to improve thanks to Trump's strong, reasonable, and reliable leadership on the world stage. Nobody here laughing at us.

https://www.vox.com/world/2017/12/21/16802604/un-jerusalem-trump-israel-haley

A few stalwart allies voted against the resolution -- voting in support of the US -- who were:

  1. Guatemala
  2. Honduras
  3. Israel
  4. Marshall Islands
  5. Micronesia
  6. Nauru
  7. Palau
  8. Togo
  9. United States

/smh

Pretty sweet COW that Trump has. Is he going into Iran with them?

 

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3 hours ago, Maithanet said:

They released a picture of the contested ballot in VA delegate race, and it really is far more ambiguous that I'd initially imagined.

It doesn't look definitive at all.  If you look at the voter's choice for governor, you see Gilispee with a shading + linethrough, and there's no question there.  Are they saying that if the box for Northam was also shaded, that would be a clear vote for Northam, and that Gilispee was chosen in error? 

I feel like the Republicans really pulled a fast on here.  Very disappointing. 

Yeah, that is 100% a spoiled vote.

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A gross GDP of about 19.5 Trillion Dollars and yet we can't seem to cough up about 12 billion dollars a year for kid's health insurance coverage.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/21/16803312/chip-extension-congress-tax-cuts-obamacare-repeal

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Congress is preparing to go home for the holidays having delivered a historic tax cut for corporations — and having done only the absolute minimum to stave off disaster for the Children’s Health Insurance Program.

 

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The United States' standing in the world continues to improve thanks to Trump's strong, reasonable, and reliable leadership on the world stage. Nobody here laughing at us.

 

Yes. Weirdly, the world is not jumping when a nation representing less than 4.3% of the world's population tells them to. And the problem is that the USA's empty threats are not going to help. The US pulls its funding from countries and then watches as they all shrug and go to China and Russia instead, or perhaps risk to internal dissent, neither of which helps the USA at all.

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4 hours ago, Maithanet said:

They released a picture of the contested ballot in VA delegate race, and it really is far more ambiguous that I'd initially imagined.

It doesn't look definitive at all.  If you look at the voter's choice for governor, you see Gilispee with a shading + linethrough, and there's no question there.  Are they saying that if the box for Northam was also shaded, that would be a clear vote for Northam, and that Gilispee was chosen in error? 

I feel like the Republicans really pulled a fast on here.  Very disappointing. 

Virginia actually has a detailed list of examples and guidelines for how to hand recount a ballot.  The vote for Gillispee likely falls under paragraph 6:

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(6) Any ballot that has any other mark or marks in the target area or candidate area for one candidate only, including circling the target area and/or the candidate's name or making a mark through the target area or candidate's name, provided no other candidate for that office is similarly marked, shall be counted as a vote for that candidate

And the vote for Yancey probably falls under paragraph 8:

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(8) Any ballot that has any mark, as above, in the target area or candidate area for one candidate, and on which other marks in the target areas or candidate areas for any other candidates have been partially erased, scratched out, or otherwise obliterated, shall be counted as a vote for the candidate for which the mark was not erased, scratched out, or otherwise obliterated, provided no other candidate is similarly marked.

To count the vote for Yancey, the vote for Simonds would have to be considered "scratched out", which doesn't seem that unreasonable of a position to take.  

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5 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

Virginia actually has a detailed list of examples and guidelines for how to hand recount a ballot.  The vote for Gillispee likely falls under paragraph 6:

And the vote for Yancey probably falls under paragraph 8:

To count the vote for Yancey, the vote for Simonds would have to be considered "scratched out", which doesn't seem that unreasonable of a position to take.  

That's an interesting document, and does make me feel (a little) better.  Obviously they've taken pains to outline the standards for what is and is not an acceptable ballot.  I agree that it seems like section 8 is the relevant section:

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(8) Any ballot that has any mark, as above, in the target area or candidate area for one candidate, and on which other marks in the target areas or candidate areas for any other candidates have been partially erased, scratched out, or otherwise obliterated, shall be counted as a vote for the candidate for which the mark was not erased, scratched out, or otherwise obliterated, provided no other candidate is similarly marked.

However, I find this particular example to be more ambiguous than any of the examples for #8.  I feel the mark by Simonds doesn't exactly qualify as "scratched out or otherwise obliterated", although I'll admit that is open to interpretation.  Unfortunate that #8 doesn't have an examples of ballots that do not meet that standard, as many of the other numbers do, because that would be clarifying in this case.

But still, this means that whether the ballot should be counted comes down to a question of whether that ballot counts as scratched out.  I understand that is a judgement call, and I'm less upset about the ruling the judges made.   

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23 hours ago, WinterFox said:

It would be pretty goddamn interesting if the US basically dumped the UN. 

I think that’s been the goal of at least some conservative lunatics like John “It’s not my fault I’m a chicken hawk. The liberals made me do it.” Bolton.

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18 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

I think that’s been the goal of at least some conservative lunatics like John “It’s not my fault I’m a chicken hawk. The liberals made me do it.” Bolton.

If I'm being honest, I would support such an endeavor 

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28 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

That's an interesting document, and does make me feel (a little) better.  Obviously they've taken pains to outline the standards for what is and is not an acceptable ballot.  I agree that it seems like section 8 is the relevant section:

However, I find this particular example to be more ambiguous than any of the examples for #8.  I feel the mark by Simonds doesn't exactly qualify as "scratched out or otherwise obliterated", although I'll admit that is open to interpretation.  Unfortunate that #8 doesn't have an examples of ballots that do not meet that standard, as many of the other numbers do, because that would be clarifying in this case.

But still, this means that whether the ballot should be counted comes down to a question of whether that ballot counts as scratched out.  I understand that is a judgement call, and I'm less upset about the ruling the judges made.   

IMO section 5 applies just as much as 8

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If there are identical marks for two or more candidates, clarified by an additional mark or marks that appear to indicate support, the ballot shall be counted as a vote for the candidate with the additional, clarifying marks

With the ambiguous nature of how to fill out a check box it could go either way. Was the strike an attempt to show support for one candidate? Or was it an attempt to scratch out the support? Seem like just throwing out the vote is the best option.

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23 hours ago, WinterFox said:

If I'm being honest, I would support such an endeavor 

In Bolton’s case it was because, being the chicken hawk that he is, he’d like for the United States to conduct militarily interventions into whatever cockamamie hare brained neocon chickenhawk scheme he came up with, without restraint from world opinion or international law.

I’m certainly no fan of interventionism and can’t stand people like Bolton, or for that matter Susan Powers.

But, I think it’s still important to try to establish some system of international law and cooperation and not go completely isolationist.

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Well, Trump is an idiot. He's failed to actually destroy Obamacare. Yet, he is taking credit for destroying it, which means he can easily blamed for anything that goes wrong with the markets. There's a good chance Dems can clean this mess up, where as we'll likely being paying the tax bill for the next 20 years.

It Looks Like Trump Failed to Sabotage Obamacare This Year

https://slate.com/business/2017/12/obamacare-lives-despite-trump.html

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People who want the US out of the UN forget why it’s there in the first place.  Over the decades America has allowed the narrative to become toxic with regard to the UN, that it’s a New World Order organization bent on destroying US sovereignty nevermind the role of the United States in the creation of the UN and its League of Nations predecessor.  These organizations were not concocted out of thin air to concentrate power in the hands of the global elite, they were designed to help prevent things like WW1 and WW2 from happening again.  In the age of ICBMs that remains an extremely important goal.  

I would hate to see the US pull out of the UN.  At minimum it signals that we’ve fully surrendered our role as an active global leader.  It may seem a pretty harmless short term move, but down the road, there are a lot of question marks.  The US could find itself on more adversarial footing towards the rest of the world, or the organization could disintegrate altogether and we should know better than to cheerlead the idea of all nations skipping along on their own nationalist paths.  We really should know better, and the boomer generation largely in charge today should especially know better as it was their parents who suffered through world wars.  Boomers really are the Worst Generation Ever (as a group, yes I know there are plenty of individual exceptions).

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5 hours ago, dmc515 said:

My point is the the congressional ballot is highly predictive:

A double digit lead in the ballot, as we've seen recently, would strongly suggest the Dems will attain the high-single digit victory we know they will need to take back the House.  Fenno's paradox is instructive to keep in mind when looking at individual races, but it doesn't have much relationship to explaining well-founded, consistent aggregate indicators of election results.  Rather, it explains why Congress as a whole has had a < 20 percent approval for at least a decade now and incumbents aren't swept out every two years.  Of course healthy skepticism is always useful, but there is absolutely no reason to be particularly skeptical of the generic ballot. 

Interesting. Have you seen any polls that are being broken down by region, states and/or districts? The polls I've seen have been national polls as far as I can tell. 

5 hours ago, WinterFox said:

Personal gain isn't enough?

I had been under the impression that, somewhat surprisingly, the bill would actually hurt the Wall Street types (the ones who put in the long hours to steal money) and pass the savings on to the already wealthy (the ones who we all think we'll be one day) 

I think it depends on a lot of factors and is probably a case by case scenario. I can't believe Fox didn't cut this dude's mic"

 

5 hours ago, Week said:

The United States' standing in the world continues to improve thanks to Trump's strong, reasonable, and reliable leadership on the world stage. Nobody here laughing at us.

https://www.vox.com/world/2017/12/21/16802604/un-jerusalem-trump-israel-haley

A few stalwart allies voted against the resolution -- voting in support of the US -- who were:

  1. Guatemala
  2. Honduras
  3. Israel
  4. Marshall Islands
  5. Micronesia
  6. Nauru
  7. Palau
  8. Togo
  9. United States

/smh

How dare you besmirch the fine country of Nauru and it's representatives at the U.N. How freaking dare you Week! 

Now will somebody please tell me where Nauru is and what it is! I sounds like a fancy candy bar! 

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But today Mitch McConnell seems to be closing off even that avenue to a Season of Entitlement Reform for Ryan:

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell threw cold water Thursday on the idea of doing welfare and entitlement reform on a partisan basis next year. He told Axios’ Mike Allen that he “would not expect to see” welfare reform on the agenda in 2018.

“We have to have Democratic involvement. So things like infrastructure … to do something in that area we’re going to have to have Democratic participation.”

This is Washington-speak (McConnell’s native tongue) for an edict that the Senate leadership is ruling out the use of the budget reconciliation process — the procedure used successfully on tax cuts and unsuccessfully on health care this year — for an attack even on the less popular entitlements, in part because it would poison the well for any deals with Democrats on pleasant preelection goodies like infrastructure spending.

 

McConnell Says No to Ryan’s Dream of Cutting Entitlements in 2018

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/12/mcconnell-says-no-to-ryans-dream-of-cutting-entitlements.html

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