Catalan thread continued

[Sophelia]

As the previous thread was closed and some people might be wanting to follow the elections today, here's a new thread.  I'm watching English language live feeds (because my Spanish is rubbish and I only know Catalan words for food):

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/dec/21/catalonia-voters-results-regional-election-spain-live

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2017-12-19/catalan-regional-election-results

Current predictions are that the independence parties will just scrape a majority, though that would be split between three parties...

Sophie

[Meera of Tarth]

ok feedback of the elections: 135 seats, in red the MPs that each party loses, in green the ones its party gains compared to September 2015

 

• 1) Citizens (Branch of Ciudadanos in Catalonia, don't like nationalism, have zero mayors in Catalonia): 37/135 seats (+13)  ------ 25,47% of votes

 

• 2) Junts x Catalunya: Puigdemont 34/135 seats  ------21,7% of votes

 

• 3)ERC (the classical independentists of the centre left): 32/135 seats-------- 21,49% of votes

(JuntsxCat and ERC were together last election, overall +4)

 

• 4) PSC (Catalan Socialists, recognise Catalonia as a nation, more self-government, infrastructures and better finances, talked about reaching agreements with Spain but always in the legality,  calm, Catalonia to become a Federal State): 17/135    (+1) --------   13,93% of votes

 

• 5)En Comú Podem (antiausterity, pro-referendum, recognise Catalonia as a nation): 8/135-------3) 7,48% of votes

 

• 6) CUP: anticapitalists, independentists 4/135 seats (-6)-------- 4,47% of votes

 

• 7) PP) Rajoy's branch in Catalonia: 3/135seats  (-8) ---------   4,25%

 

In percentage of votes:

Citizens: 25,47% of votes

 JuntsxCat: 21,7% of votes

ERC: 21,49% of votes

PSC: 13,93% of votes

En Comú/Podem: 7,78% of votes

CUP: 4,47% of votes

PP: 4,25% of votes

 

 

PRO-INDEPENDENCE: (JuntsxCat, ERC and CUP): 70/135 seats; 52% of seats (47,5% IN VOTES)

CATALANANIST not independentistS (PSC AND comú-Podem): 25/135; (18,5%of seats)

CATALANS THAT VOTED PARTIES THAT RECOGNISE CATALONIA AS A NATION: (all those above): 95/135 (70,4% of seats)

CATALANS WHO VOTED PARTIES THAT DON'T THINK THAT CATALONIA IS A NATION: (Citizens and PP): 29,6% of seats

 

The winners: Citizens and Puigdemont.

The losers: Rajoy and CUP.

[Meera of Tarth]

This is funny, from the article above:

Mariano Rajoy, 62: The Spanish prime minister gambled that the chaos unleashed by October’s push for independence would persuade moderate Catalans to abandon the separatists. He’s skeptical of so-called solutions to the Catalan problem and more concerned about shoring up his conservative base in the rest of Spain, which is clamoring for the rebels to be taught a lesson

skeptical! Just skeptical? lol

[Tijgy]

Haha.

I might be wrong but the elections didn't solve anything I think? It only made Rajoy  and Guy and his Cit Friends .

[Tijgy]

Message from our Minister-President (Flanders)

KRLS is Puigdemont

[ants]

So isn’t this a win for the status quo? Independents win parliament (want to run things locally) but lose popular vote (most don’t want independence)?

[mormont]

3 minutes ago, ants said:

So isn’t this a win for the status quo? Independents win parliament (want to run things locally) but lose popular vote (most don’t want independence)?

This is only true if you assume that everyone in the 9% who voted for the CCP, a party that is not aligned with either side on the question of independence, don't want independence. Which would be an odd assumption to make. 

As it stands, it appears that more people support parties that back independence than support parties who oppose it. 

[Tijgy]

I just read there might be a problem with the majority of the independentists: 8 of the elected people (like Puigdemont) don't have any right to vote because they are been prosecuted for rebellion. 

This is of course the legal view 

More political view: politicians who were elected for their separatist views are being prosecuted for their separatist actions and have been now reelected because by the people of Catalonia for those actions. I am starting to get a headache. 

[Meera of Tarth]

Just now, Tijgy said:

Haha.

I might be wrong but the elections didn't solve anything I think? It only made Rajoy  and Guy and his Cit Friends .

Exactly.

[Meera of Tarth]

5 hours ago, ants said:

So isn’t thislostwin for the status quo? Independents win parliament (want to run things locally) but lose popular vote (most don’t want independence)?

For independentists, It is a maintenance. I think they lost Like 0.1x100 of votes, I think now was 47,5% (although they  won more votes yesterday because the turnout was about 80x100) and unionists from the most Pro-Spanish side changed their view their from rajoy to citizens, that are very similar but more "modern" in physical appearance . That might be because nobody stands Rajoy as a leader or for the useful vote.

But this is not a win for the status quo at all. PSC wants more self-government for Catalonia, better infrastructures, better finances, Catalonia recognised as a Nation and like 40 proposals that Puigdemont had for Rajoy (except the referndum one), so as to become a Federal State (Catalonia is an Autonomous Community now with the status of "nationality"). En Comú/POdem want also more self-government and recognise Catalonia as a nation, and want a referndum.

Comuns lost votes for polarisation but PSC won one Due to useful vote, despite having a deescalation PrOgram and solutions. So the side of the middle term is approximately equally the same, just like the pro-independence one.

Cup Lost more than half of their representarion.... that might soften the situation (another udi less possible) but with them you never know.

So, overall, only 29% of Catalans voted for parties that want the status quo (Citiens and PP) but even them had small proposals for better finances for Catalonia (we would have to see if that would be better or not because Citizens is not pro-Catalan, though; they could want less self.government, who knows, they didn't precise in detail about what they wanted, they just said a  new model of finances and that competences between State and Autonomous Communities are more clarified), or infrastructures (that's something all the parties wanted, even PP of Catalonia). So the photo is almost the same with less power for CUP that went to the other indep parties and less votes for PP that  went to Citizens, but  what catalans voted It's not maintenance of the status quo at all.

[Meera of Tarth]

5 hours ago, mormont said:

This is only true if you assume that everyone in the 9% who voted for the CCP, a party that is not aligned with either side on the question of independence, don't want independence. Which would be an odd assumption to make. 

As it stands, it appears that more people support parties that back independence than support parties who oppose it. 

We can't assume that the parties' voters represent the whole view on independence though. Overall, I'd say yes, but there are parties from the independentist side that have voters that don't want indep or that are not sure, and even in the unionist side we can see the opposite, with small percentages of course. I read that in a newspaper not so long ago.

And let's take into account that these elections also called for being against the 155 and freedom of political prisoners.

En Comú/Podem is pro-referendum, their leaders are not independentists in general but voters, who knows, I'd say less than half, but could be more, we can't know.

That's what could happen (October) if negotiations started with the State of Spain, independentism would not be as high.

The real important thing is that catalans voted for either independence or more self-government, except the ones of Citiens who might be the winners but with PP are not even 30% of the votes. More than 70% want the other thing, but Rajoy is ruling in Catalonia with around 4% of votes right now. These percentatges of 70+% have been in Catalonia for decades, 11 years ago with the Statute, the consensus is clear: Catalonia is a Nation, at least.

[Meera of Tarth]

2 hours ago, Tijgy said:

I just read there might be a problem with the majority of the independentists: 8 of the elected people (like Puigdemont) don't have any right to vote because they are been prosecuted for rebellion. 

This is of course the legal view 

More political view: politicians who were elected for their separatist views are being prosecuted for their separatist actions and have been now reelected because by the people of Catalonia for those actions. I am starting to get a headache. 

And now they are saying that the demonstrations of the 11th of September of several years are proof of the rebellion charges for these politicians and others that will start being investigated. They adoctrinated the masses, apparently, with hatred towards the Spanish State and instiutions, apparently, and calling for disobedience according to Guardia Civil.

And if CUP finally absteined for the election of Puigdemont as President (not clear since they say they want to start implementing the Republic and disobedience in an unilateral way) he'd very likely be arrested, possibly before arriving to the Parliament, unlesss he hided very well when trying to return by car.

[Tijgy]

40 minutes ago, Meera of Tarth said:

And now they are saying that the demonstrations of the 11th of September of several years are proof of the rebellion charges for these politicians and others that will start being investigated. They adoctrinated the masses, apparently, with hatred towards the Spanish State and instiutions, apparently, and calling for disobedience according to Guardia Civil.

And if CUP finally absteined for the election of Puigdemont as President (not clear since they say they want to start implementing the Republic and disobedience in an unilateral way) he'd very likely be arrested, possibly before arriving to the Parliament, unlesss he hided very well when trying to return by car.

I heared the Spanish are planning to prevent Puigdemont from entering Catalonia. 

I am still of the opinion the EU have been and are making huge mistakes during the last years regarding the crisis in Catalonia. 

You either interfere in all MS or you don't. You don't make that decision dependant on which European Political Party the government leader belongs to. Otherwise you might show the moral bankruptcy of the Union and that it is time to return the Nobel Prize of Peace. 

Some days ago our EU Commissionar Marianne Thyssen said the Catalan Leaders deserves to be in prison because they broke the law. (Of course excluding Catalans I think) nobody on the world expect people in Flanders complains about this. 

First, this person represents the EU which itself claims to be a beacon of liberty. Second, I kind of felt sick when I heard this. Third, it is very hilarious to hear a Belgian politician saying politicians should be prosecuted because they acted against the law. It is almost a national sport and several Belgian state reforms (which were under the leadership of her party IIRC) were unconstitutional . Four, is she now actually not offending her own constituants, the Flemish people ? Five, Her party's position - the only Flemish one standing clearly on Rajoy's side. Long live the EPP! - ensured her party is been reduced to a low 14% which is kind of a disgrace for a christendemocrat party in the traditional catholic Flanders. Congrats ... Her party certainly lost one vote. And I actually voted for someone who didn't became Premier because Thyssen had to become member of the EU Commission. Ugh.  I hate all that behind doors politics. 

[maarsen]

7 hours ago, mormont said:

This is only true if you assume that everyone in the 9% who voted for the CCP, a party that is not aligned with either side on the question of independence, don't want independence. Which would be an odd assumption to make. 

As it stands, it appears that more people support parties that back independence than support parties who oppose it. 

I look back on the history of the Quebec independence movement as a guide for other region's independence aspirations. The Parti Quebecois won the provincial elections, campaigning on holding a referendum on independence at some point during their mandate. A significant majority of people did vote for the PQ  but when the time came for the actual referendum, Quebec voted to stay in Canada.  People in Catalonia may have voted for parties that are in favour of independence but the voters are more likely to have voted with the idea of choosing the most competent party to actually run Catalonia. Would you think the same holds true in Scotland?

[Meera of Tarth]

6 hours ago, Tijgy said:

I heared the Spanish are planning to prevent Puigdemont from entering Catalonia. 

I am still of the opinion the EU have been and are making huge mistakes during the last years regarding the crisis in Catalonia. 

You either interfere in all MS or you don't. You don't make that decision dependant on which European Political Party the government leader belongs to. Otherwise you might show the moral bankruptcy of the Union and that it is time to return the Nobel Prize of Peace. 

Some days ago our EU Commissionar Marianne Thyssen said the Catalan Leaders deserves to be in prison because they broke the law. (Of course excluding Catalans I think) nobody on the world expect people in Flanders complains about this. 

He will be arrested apparently, yes.

What they are doing makes no sense. One can argue if they deserve fines, to cease them from politics or even jail if there is a trial What people find extraordinarily incredible is that they are prosecuted for crimes that involve violence that could lead to 30 years of prison, as if they were Tejero and had entered the Parliament with guns, or worse things. (And preventive jail still now for Oriol Junquers, Joaquim Forn, why?)

And what it's worse, they retired the EAW once they noticed that those charges do not exist in Belgium. It's quite pathetic. The State has the right to what they think they should do in those cases but this prosecution is exaggerated.

Did I tell you that they "punish" the Jordis by changing his partner in jail? SO apparently Oriol Junqueras and Jordi Sänchez recorded some things for the campaign and now Junqueras' punishment will be to stay alone in the cell this Christmas days....

And now they are using the demonstrations of the 11th September of several years as proof of the rebellion chrges, apparently they encouraged the masses to hate the State.

6 hours ago, Tijgy said:

 

. Four, is she now actually not offending her own constituants, the Flemish people ? Five, Her party's position - the only Flemish one standing clearly on Rajoy's side. Long live the EPP! - ensured her party is been reduced to a low 14% which is kind of a disgrace for a christendemocrat party in the traditional catholic Flanders. Congrats ... Her party certainly lost one vote. And I actually voted for someone who didn't became Premier because Thyssen had to become member of the EU Commission. Ugh.  I hate all that behind doors politics. 

14% is not bad! Rajoy had 8% and now has 4% in Catalonia

[Meera of Tarth]

oh Rajoy has spoken:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/22/deposed-catalan-president-carles-puigdemont-offers-to-meet-rajoy-but-not-in-spain

Spain’s prime minister has defended his handling of the Catalan crisis after the snap election he called in an attempt to settle the secessionist challenge resulted in pro-independence parties holding on to their absolute majority in parliament.

Speaking the day after the three Catalan separatist parties won a total of 70 seats in the 135-seat regional parliament, Mariano Rajoy stood by his strategy of taking control of the region in response to an illegal independence referendum and subsequent declaration of independence.

Asked whether he accepted responsibility for the disastrous poll showing of his conservative People’s party, whose presence in the Catalan parliament was reduced from 11 seats to three, Rajoy replied: “The prime minister accepts responsibility for anything that happens to the People’s party, just as all members of the People’s party across Spain do.”

He shrugged off suggestions that his use of article 155 of the Spanish constitution to suspend Catalan autonomy had proved costly and counterproductive.

“I think article 155 was applied as it needed to be,” he said. “It was not applied when the Catalan government took the first of its decisions that were against the law. We were prudent. It was applied with the agreement of an enormous majority in the senate and it was applied intelligently.

He pointed out that the centre-right Citizens party, which strongly supported his actions, won the largest share of the Catalan vote and the greatest number of seats.

“The negative thing about these results, from my point of view, is that those of us who wanted change haven’t won enough seats to bring that to a successful conclusion,” he said at a press conference in Madrid.

He said the separatist bloc had lost two seats since the last regional election and had taken a combined 47.6% of the vote, and thus could not claim to represent all Catalans.

“Yesterday’s results also make it plain that no one can speak for Catalonia who doesn’t include all of Catalonia,” Rajoy said. “What’s clear after the vote is that Catalonia is not monolithic; Catalonia is plural and we all need to nurture that plurality as a virtue and a source or riches.”

With speculation mounting that Together for Catalonia, the party of the deposed Catalan president, Carles Puigdemont, will attempt to reassemble its previous coalition with the Catalan Republican Left party (ERC) and the anti-capitalist Popular Unity Candidacy, Rajoy called for a new direction in Catalan politics.

“Elections always offer the possibility of a new democratic beginning, an opportunity to embark on a new phase,” he said. “I trust that from now, Catalonia will enter a phase based on dialogue and not confrontation, in cooperation and not imposition, in plurality and not unilateralism.”

He said the Spanish government would be prepared to collaborate with any Catalan government that observed the law and worked to restore stability, security and social harmony to the region.

“Without respect for the law, and without a responsible Catalan government that respects it, it won’t be possible to guarantee security and certainty,” he said.

Earlier on Friday, Puigdemont, who fled to Brussels at the end of October, said he was ready to meet Rajoy to find a way out of the crisis, but stipulated that the meeting could not take place in Spain, where he faces arrest on possible charges of sedition, rebellion and misuse of public funds.

“I am willing to meet Mr Rajoy in Brussels or in any other location in the EU, so long as it is not in the Spanish state, for obvious reasons,” he said. “Catalonia wants to be an independent state, but the next step is to talk with Mariano Rajoy.”

Calling the election results a “slap in the face” for Rajoy, Puigdemont said: “We must completely change the recipe because it doesn’t work any more.”

He said Rajoy’s strategy of taking control of the region to try to head off the independence movement had failed. “All I ask is that he listens to us,” he said. “We have the right to restore that which the Spanish government changed so abruptly.”

Rajoy gave short shrift to Puigdemont’s offer, pointedly saying the leader he should meet was Inés Arrimadas, of the Catalan Citizens party, which won 37 seats and 25.4% of the vote.

“The person I need to sit down with is the person who won the election and that’s Arrimadas,” he said.

He refused to speculate on whether Puigdemont’s legal situation could complicate his return to the Catalan presidency, saying it was a matter for the courts.

Madrid’s direct rule over Catalonia is due to expire when a new Catalan government is formed. Pressed on whether article 155 could be used if the next regional administration pushed on with a unilateral quest for independence, Rajoy said he would not focus on the “worst possible situation” but added that the law had to be obeyed.

Despite the political upheaval, Barcelona was calm on Friday morning, with people finishing off their Christmas shopping or sitting glued to the TV to find out how they had fared in the annual Christmas lottery, El Gordo.

The coming weeks will see a return to the politicking as coalition talks begin, Puigdemont and his allies seek a return to power and the Spanish government looks on and weighs up its options.

[Tijgy]

1 hour ago, Meera of Tarth said:

14% is not bad! Rajoy had 8% and now has 4% in Catalonia

The weirdest thing is that they still the second biggest party IIRC. The first one (Flemish Nationalists Party N-VA had 29 %. 

What is happening during the polls. Vote from the Flemish Nationalists Party are going back to the Extreme Right Party who were been decimated but now have again 10 % (the more radical Flemish Nationalists are going back to the Extreme Right Party because they think N-VA is too soft on Flemish issues). But they are gaining more than the N-VA are loosing. So the N-VA are now getting (even more) votes which used to go to the Christen-Democrats. 

The Christen-Democrats used to fight for Flemish interests - which why I voted for them in 2014 - but now not anymore. Supporting Rajoy really doesn't get you the support of flemish nationalist voters. 

1 hour ago, Meera of Tarth said:

What they are doing makes no sense. One can argue if they deserve fines, to cease them from politics or even jail if there is a trial

I still don't understand why they should be punished. 

For example: http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/catalonia-referendum-election-pep-guardiola-manchester-city-investigation-spanish-police-support-a8123906.html

In my eyes it is a witch hunt. This is prosecuting people for their political opinion. Nothing more. 

I think I said it before: 1984!

[Meera of Tarth]

2 hours ago, Tijgy said:

The weirdest thing is that they still the second biggest party IIRC. The first one (Flemish Nationalists Party N-VA had 29 %. 

What is happening during the polls. Vote from the Flemish Nationalists Party are going back to the Extreme Right Party who were been decimated but now have again 10 % (the more radical Flemish Nationalists are going back to the Extreme Right Party because they think N-VA is too soft on Flemish issues). But they are gaining more than the N-VA are loosing. So the N-VA are now getting (even more) votes which used to go to the Christen-Democrats. 

The Christen-Democrats used to fight for Flemish interests - which why I voted for them in 2014 - but now not anymore. Supporting Rajoy really doesn't get you the support of flemish nationalist voters. 

What a pitty that parties from the far sides of the spectrum have more protagonism just because political leaders are not able to deal with nationalistic realities.

Quote

I still don't understand why they should be punished. 

That's subject of debate. While the UDI was not implemented nor made official (not published) there could be argued they embezzdled funds on ballot boxes, for instance. I'm not an expert on this matter, but they say that Puigdemont measured a lot his words when he proclaimed the UDI...there could be legal mtters there. What I don't understand is why are they accused of rebellion if that involves violence AFAIK

Quote

For example: http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/catalonia-referendum-election-pep-guardiola-manchester-city-investigation-spanish-police-support-a8123906.html

In my eyes it is a witch hunt. This is prosecuting people for their political opinion. Nothing more. 

I think I said it before: 1984!

Pep!

Oh, I didn't know....

well, it's indeed a wight hunt. They are investigating Trapero as well.

Ok there are two things here:

1)A report investigating the imprisoned activists Jordi Sanchez and Jordi Cuixart over the Catalonian referendum last October has mentioned Guardiola, according to reports in Spain, and the documents will now be passed onto the Supreme Court judge Pablo Llaren.

2)According to a police report seen by Spanish newspaper El Nacional, Guardiola is one of a number of high-profile figures being investigated for trying to sway public opinion on the referendum, with the report citing that a “manifesto was read by Josep Guardiola and intended to mobilise all supporters of independence”.

Whatever role he could have had, trying to say that they instigated masses into independence/sedition as proof of their charge of rebellion is so pathetic. People can be manipulated, and in fact, many people are, from both sides, but that's their OPINION on a matter that only concerns them. If the civilians who want independence or whatever that is legitimate and moral are persuaded into believing this it's their own issue. This is like treating people like children. Seriously. Why aren't all the demonstrators of the last years being investigated as well? Oh please. And this case it's even worse because ANC is an independentist association so it's normal that it encourages people to join the cause. They are not politicians....

And speaking of documents, the police ceased a notebook of a secretary of ERC where he wrote everything related to the Catalan Process to theReferendum, names, events, what was discussed in which reunion, and now more politicians that participated there but were not from the Government, will be investigated (including a CUP member as well). SO it doesn't surprise me that they are trying to  fabricate their version of the events saying they are all rebels, instigators, etc.

It's like independetisnm woke up with the sun of Japan, and Spanish State woke up in America, they just go hours, months, years late. But they all see the same sun every day at the same hour?How is it possible?And they keep with their only solution: prosecution. The more prosecution, more indepdentists. That's being incompetent from an State perspective. Either stop it before eating things you might not want, or at least "stop" the Process before it ever gets worse. DOing it now it's just so out of place, and stupid. And they are only increasing the situation.

Might I say that indeps as well, although trying to defense themselves from the State,  so they can't lose their supporters so they say from time to time that Catalonia is a Republic in a perpetual victimhood. Nobody knows if they will do another UDI after Rajoy says No again, or they will win their supporters only bc of the "exhaustion" provoked by Rajoy's Government in Catlonia. That's legitimate to say and try (if not now, when?) but I don't think it's fair either. Gaining independence bc the other doesn't like you should not be the way. Couldn't they wait a few years maybe with another , less hostile, Government in Spain? But I suppose now any side can't seat to talk like real persons...at least Puigdemont tried and he is trying again (while saying Republic....) but Rajoy has other priorities, like watching football and who knows what. He has almost disappeared in Catalonia but he won't accept the problem nor talk about it.  Why should he? He is the President with rumours of being a corrupt.

Meanqhile, Catalonia is losing every day with the 155 decree.

[Tijgy]

2 hours ago, Meera of Tarth said:

.at least Puigdemont tried and he is trying again (while saying Republic....) but Rajoy has other priorities, like watching football and who knows what. He has almost disappeared in Catalonia but he won't accept the problem nor talk about it.  Why should he? He is the President with rumours of being a corrupt.

And saying the Spanish State lost ... doesn't sound that conciliatory.

 

[Meera of Tarth]

20 minutes ago, Tijgy said:

And saying the Spanish State lost ... doesn't sound that conciliatory.

 

I refer to the fact that voters should know beforehand if their vote is gonna be for an implementation of the Republic, another UDI or trying to reach agreements that seem impossible/middle term independence. Since the two forces have been ambiguous in these lections so as not to to lose voters, nobody really knows what's gonna happen, although post declarations seem to indicate that it's more the "pact" thing; but some messages are still ambiguous: "this is the Republic" (does it mean you will agree with CUP on another UDI?) but at the same time leaders of ERc aso saying they are wanting to "make Republic" with Comú/Podem (how can they do Republic? is it figurative, meaning ruling in the country of Catalonia? Comú won't vote for Puigdemont and ERC can't rule without him, and they know that. Comú won't vote for a government that goes the unilateral way...(while CUP says it's the only way they are gonna be there to support)

These are wways of talking, but in circumstances like this, people should know what's gonna happen....

I don't think that they should be saying that the Spanish State lost....indeed it  would not be conciliatory either; although they said that Rajoy lost, which is like saying that the Government of Spain lst, and that's true statistically speaking and Rajoy should know.

Btw....statistics of the results in maps of Catalonia