Catalan thread continued

[Meera of Tarth]

4 hours ago, Loge said:

According to German news reports, two members of the Catalan police who had accompanied Puigdemon.

Thanks!

[Tijgy]

18 hours ago, Meera of Tarth said:

@Tijgy is it true that 55 Flemish MP's have written a letter to Rajoy or something like this?

They did. 

https://www.elnacional.cat/ca/politica/diputats-flamencs-rajoy-carta_253164_102.html

 

And Ecuador cut the internet connection of Assange because he said some things on twitter about the situation, because they don't want to endanger their connections to some other countries... 

[Meera of Tarth]

9 hours ago, Tijgy said:

They did. 

https://www.elnacional.cat/ca/politica/diputats-flamencs-rajoy-carta_253164_102.html

Oh thanks! Then it's right!

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And Ecuador cut the internet connection of Assange because he said some things on twitter about the situation, because they don't want to endanger their connections to some other countries... 

Yes, I read about that. It's all about relationships between countries.

BTW in this vdeo Rajoy says that they didn't use Catalan money for the referendum. I don't know if it's true or not, but Rajoy says that as far as he is concerned it is not the case. It has English subtitles.

 

[Tijgy]

15 hours ago, Meera of Tarth said:

BTW in this vdeo Rajoy says that they didn't use Catalan money for the referendum. I don't know if it's true or not, but Rajoy says that as far as he is concerned it is not the case. It has English subtitles.

 

I also saw that. Now he created the situation where several Catalans are being extradited for a criminal fact which the premier of Spain even says didn't happen 

 

[Tijgy]

And he is free! Or he is at least released on bail. And the German judge said he cannot be extradited for rebellion, only corruption. 

Poor Spain ... so much scheming, and still failing. 

What will they do now ? 

[Meera of Tarth]

11 hours ago, Tijgy said:

And he is free! Or he is at least released on bail. And the German judge said he cannot be extradited for rebellion, only corruption. 

Poor Spain ... so much scheming, and still failing. 

What will they do now ? 

He is!!!

Right now only the VicePresident Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría has spoken saying they respect all the justice systems and decisions.

PP is having some problems these days since the President of the Autonomous Community of Madrid is under investigation for the forgery of a Master....although she keeps denying it.....

[Loge]

Well, he isn't really free, just out of jail. The court has ruled that the rebellion charge isn't covered by German law. He could still be extradited on the embezzlement charges.

[Meera of Tarth]

8 hours ago, Loge said:

Well, he isn't really free, just out of jail. The court has ruled that the rebellion charge isn't covered by German law. He could still be extradited on the embezzlement charges.

Yes, we were referring to the rebellion charges. Although in theory if the Spanish Judge decided to annull the EAW maybe he could still be judged for this? I'm not sure, I don't think so, but I don't know the details of these things.

Meanwhile Spanish Jugde Llarena is trying to go to the UE Cort so as that the decision of the German Judge could be rejected...

[Meera of Tarth]

Tomorrow they'll elect the President of Catalonia, Quim Torra, appointed by Puigdemont; since there is no other alternative.

Meanwhile, Judge Llarena will try to make luck with the "secession" charge instead of "rebellion" so as that Puigdemont could be extradited to Spain and go to prison.

[Mentat]

On 5/11/2018 at 10:02 PM, Meera of Tarth said:

Tomorrow they'll elect the President of Catalonia, Quim Torra, appointed by Puigdemont; since there is no other alternative.

Meanwhile, Judge Llarena will try to make luck with the "secession" charge instead of "rebellion" so as that Puigdemont could be extradited to Spain and go to prison.

They'll presumably invest him today, as CUP have announced they will abstain (not surprisingly, as Torra is a hard-line independence supporter, and has been kissing up to them as much as he can). It will still be an extremely close thing (66 for, 65 against and 4 abstentions).

I must say, I'm no fan of Torra. The continuation of the conflict with the Spanish state will be his main agenda, with no attempt to de-escalate. I truly thought Rajoy was offering a (modest) olive branch by not appealing the delegated vote of Puigdemont and Comín and assuring that he would cease the intervention of Catalan autonomy the moment a government was elected, regardless of what he thought of said government (and resisting pressure from Ciudadanos to do otherwise, despite the polls saying they're poaching their electorate).

Anyway, Torra has announced that his presidency will be an interim affair until the restitution of Puigdemont as the legitimate president (God knows if this is feasible). It leaves Catalan politics in a continuing state of flux and instability, but I guess a perception that things have settled down and returned to 'business as usual' would be a death knell to the independence movement, so they're trying to avoid it at all costs.

[Meera of Tarth]

On 5/14/2018 at 8:59 AM, Mentat said:

They'll presumably invest him today, as CUP have announced they will abstain (not surprisingly, as Torra is a hard-line independence supporter, and has been kissing up to them as much as he can). It will still be an extremely close thing (66 for, 65 against and 4 abstentions).

I must say, I'm no fan of Torra. The continuation of the conflict with the Spanish state will be his main agenda, with no attempt to de-escalate, will be his agenda. I truly thought Rajoy was offering a (modest) olive branch by not appealing the delegated vote of Puigdemont and Comín and assuring that he would cease the intervention of Catalan autonomy the moment a government was elected, regardless of what he thought of said government (and resisting pressure from Ciudadanos to do otherwise, despite the polls saying they're poaching their electorate).

I am not fan of Torra either, since he is talking about implementing a Republic that has not been voted in normal conditions so as it to be implemented (legal referendum and telling people both the positive and negative things of that sceneario)..

But I don't agree on Rajoy wanting to deescalate the situation. I don't think he has ever wanted in fact. The whole thing started more than ten years ago and his party and him had a lot to do with that and on what the current situation is now. Now it's just a clash of trains, who is the one that will resist, and just criticising the others emphasizing things that should not be as much emphasized (a lost of perspective....from both sides).

 Regardless if people like Puigdemont or Comín or not, I think the lines were crossed in terms of the Constitutional Court when they quickly decided at that weekend that Puigdemont could  not cross the bordier. In fact, the whole thing of the prisoners is quite sensitive to me and Spain doesn't want to deescalate it at all, which is a pitty.

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Anyway, Torra has announced that his presidency will be an interim affair until the restitution of Puigdemont as the legitimate president (God knows if this is feasible). It leaves Catalan politics in a continuing state of flux and instability, but I guess a perception that things have settled down and returned to 'business as usual' would be a death knell to the independence movement, so they're trying to avoid it at all costs.

I'm clueless of what will happen. At this point of the story is everything so messed up?

So from the one hand there is Citizens wanting to mantain or extending the 155 instead of stopping it, wanting to talk with Rajoy about that issue....while at the same time CUP says they don't like today's offer for dialogue from Torra and Puigdemont to Rajoy.....

[Mentat]

9 hours ago, Meera of Tarth said:

But I don't agree on Rajoy wanting to deescalate the situation. I don't think he has ever wanted in fact. The whole thing started more than ten years ago and his party and him had a lot to do with that and on what the current situation is now. Now it's just a clash of trains, who is the one that will resist, and just criticising the others emphasizing things that should not be as much emphasized (a lost of perspective....from both sides).

 Regardless if people like Puigdemont or Comín or not, I think the lines were crossed in terms of the Constitutional Court when they quickly decided at that weekend that Puigdemont could  not cross the bordier. In fact, the whole thing of the prisoners is quite sensitive to me and Spain doesn't want to deescalate it at all, which is a pitty.

I'm clueless of what will happen. At this point of the story is everything so messed up?

So from the one hand there is Citizens wanting to mantain or extending the 155 instead of stopping it, wanting to talk with Rajoy about that issue....while at the same time CUP says they don't like today's offer for dialogue from Torra and Puigdemont to Rajoy.....

Well, I can't read Rajoy's mind, so I may be wrong, but to me, right now, the unionists want a de-escalation of the conflict (it would be seen as a victory), while the independence side wants to ratchet up the tension (as I said before, I think business as usual would be their death knell). If we're talking ten years ago, then you're absolutely right. Zapatero and the Catalan government were trying to find a negotiated solution to the conflict, while Rajoy was trying to ratchet up the tension, attacking both Zapatero and the Catalans. Now, however, Rajoy is president, so he has been forced to moderate his positions substantially, which Ciudadanos has taken advantage of to steal Rajoy's anti-Catalan thunder. I really don't think Rajoy wants a continuation of Catalan government intervention by the Spanish state, which is an exceptional situation which leads to complaints by the Catalan institutions and media and problems for Rajoy if he wants to reach some kind of deal with the Basque nationalist party PNV (which he currently needs if he wants a majority in Spanish parliament), hence him not appealing Puigdemont and Comín's delegated vote and his insistence that intervention will end once there's a government in Catalonia. I won't argue that most if not all of this is done out of self-interest, but it's what I think he's doing.

The Constitutional Court didn't say Puigdemont can't cross the border, they just said that a candidate to president must stand before parliament and debate their program in order to be elected. Puigdemont (and any citizen of the EU, really...) can cross the Spanish border anytime they like. I generally agree with you that the criminal charges being levied against Catalan politicians seem mostly unfounded (some of the lesser ones, like disobeying a court mandate, may well end up sticking though), and that their imprisonment is excessive and unjust, but I insist that that's not really up to the Spanish government, but to overzealous judges/courts. That these judges/courts are puppets of the government is something I don't believe, and I think there's plenty of evidence against it.

 

[Meera of Tarth]

On 5/16/2018 at 8:46 AM, Mentat said:

Well, I can't read Rajoy's mind, so I may be wrong, but to me, right now, the unionists want a de-escalation of the conflict (it would be seen as a victory), while the independence side wants to ratchet up the tension (as I said before, I think business as usual would be their death knell).

Well, I'd say that the ones who really want to deescalate it are the Catalan Socialists (especially) and also En Comú-Podem, from the unionist side. At least, having listened to the general tones of their speeches (one can also argue if that is related to gaining votes though).

PP and Ciudadanos don't want to de-escalate it, they just one to take advantage from the situation (especially Ciudadanos, with PP is more a matter of showing they still have the control over Catalonia and Spain) and this means taking  advantage of both gaining votes and actually dismantling the status of Catalonia as it is today; making it less autonomous, and more like a region with less of that "nationality" status that the Constitution states.

You said it below,that Ciudadanos want to steal the anti-catalan thunder from PP. This can't be about deescalating, especially considering that nearly half of the population wants or thinks that wants an independent State, and 70% of the votes from December were to parties than want Catalonia to be recognized as a Nation, or having a little bit more of autonomy (whilst other total independence from this group). This 70% or around in favour of more recognisition is the same that people had voted more than years ago in a legal referendum, and as the Spanish Parliament voted favourably as well... . 

The best example of this is the reunion between Ciudadanos and Rajoy, in which Ribera said that he'd like to extend the 155 to the Public Catalan TV and radio, and of course it to be continued with the Catalan Police, Finances, External Politics, etc. And let's not talk about Citizen's view on the indoctrination in the Catalan schools...

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If we're talking ten years ago, then you're absolutely right. Zapatero and the Catalan government were trying to find a negotiated solution to the conflict, while Rajoy was trying to ratchet up the tension, attacking both Zapatero and the Catalans. Now, however, Rajoy is president, so he has been forced to moderate his positions substantially, which Ciudadanos has taken advantage of to steal Rajoy's anti-Catalan thunder. I really don't think Rajoy wants a continuation of Catalan government intervention by the Spanish state, which is an exceptional situation which leads to complaints by the Catalan institutions and media and problems for Rajoy if he wants to reach some kind of deal with the Basque nationalist party PNV (which he currently needs if he wants a majority in Spanish parliament), hence him not appealing Puigdemont and Comín's delegated vote and his insistence that intervention will end once there's a government in Catalonia. I won't argue that most if not all of this is done out of self-interest, but it's what I think he's doing.

Yeah, I agree with that. He has been forced to moderate a little bit his position, but it's clear what they like or they don't.

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The Constitutional Court didn't say Puigdemont can't cross the border, they just said that a candidate to president must stand before parliament and debate their program in order to be elected. Puigdemont (and any citizen of the EU, really...) can cross the Spanish border anytime they like. I generally agree with you that the criminal charges being levied against Catalan politicians seem mostly unfounded (some of the lesser ones, like disobeying a court mandate, may well end up sticking though), and that their imprisonment is excessive and unjust, but I insist that that's not really up to the Spanish government, but to overzealous judges/courts. That these judges/courts are puppets of the government is something I don't believe, and I think there's plenty of evidence against it.

But they were pushed by the Government to make a resolution before that Monday. In normal circumstances, they could not have technically answered so quickly. That was really messy and....problematic.

And having overzealous judges it's also a great problem, I'd say. I don't want to generalise, but these days we only get news of what type of judges have become judges in this country (in this case for an even worse subject). Again, maybe they are just a minority....but still. Even if just some, it's somewhat problematic.

[Mentat]

6 hours ago, Meera of Tarth said:

Well, I'd say that the ones who really want to deescalate it are the Catalan Socialists (especially) and also En Comú-Podem, from the unionist side. At least, having listened to the general tones of their speeches (one can also argue if that is related to gaining votes though).

PP and Ciudadanos don't want to de-escalate it, they just one to take advantage from the situation (especially Ciudadanos, with PP is more a matter of showing they still have the control over Catalonia and Spain) and this means taking  advantage of both gaining votes and actually dismantling the status of Catalonia as it is today; making it less autonomous, and more like a region with less of that "nationality" status that the Constitution states.

You said it below,that Ciudadanos want to steal the anti-catalan thunder from PP. This can't be about deescalating, especially considering that nearly half of the population wants or thinks that wants an independent State, and 70% of the votes from December were to parties than want Catalonia to be recognized as a Nation, or having a little bit more of autonomy (whilst other total independence from this group). This 70% or around in favour of more recognisition is the same that people had voted more than years ago in a legal referendum, and as the Spanish Parliament voted favourably as well...

I really like the Catalan socialists. If I had my legal residence in Catalonia I would have voted for them. Iceta's intervention in the debate on Monday was by far the best, I thought.

Ciudadanos suck. It's a pity, because their success is due in part to an anti-Catalan reaction in the rest of Spain due to the independence process, but the anti-Catalan sentiment (which PP was championing 10 years ago) is partly to blame for the independence movement too, so I guess it's just a vicious circle of bad sentiment and political polarization

That said... I really don't think the PP wants to dismantle the autonomy of the Spanish regions. It's a fundamental part of our Constitution (and has been protected in numerous occasions by the TC). Even Ciudadanos wouldn't really dare (though you wouldn't believe that by reading their press releases...). It's true that the centralization-decentralization balance shifts depending on having a right or left wing central government or whether the party in power has an absolute majority or not, but these are small shifts. I'm pretty certain of this.

I really think that the PP wants to de-escalate the conflict, because it's just in their best interest to do so. The problem is that in order to de-escalate it effectively it would have to reach some kind of agreement with the pro-independence parties (a federal proposal, some sort of state-wide referendum or something like that), so since it doesn't want to do that it's trying to de-escalate it ineffectively (by just hoping Catalan politicians will be scared of reprisals or relent). That said, I think it's at least trying not to fuel the fire any more (by prolonging the intervention of Catalan autonomy or impeding the election of a radically pro-independence president even if they don't like him) despite Ciudadanos nudging them.

BTW, that 70% of the votes figure is misleading, I think. The three parties that are pro-independence (ERC, JxCAT and CUP) got a 47,32% of the votes between the three of them. If you lump the Comuns with them (which I'm not sure you should...), that goes up to 54,75%. You need to add PSC to reach that 70% figure (and I really think that's cavalier). Though they might all desire a higher degree of self-governance, they disagree very much on what and how that should be. The CUP wouldn't even consider negotiating with the Spanish state as they think Catalonia is already an independent republic, while PSC would oppose any move contrary to the Constitution.

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But they were pushed by the Government to make a resolution before that Monday. In normal circumstances, they could not have technically answered so quickly. That was really messy and....problematic.

And having overzealous judges it's also a great problem, I'd say. I don't want to generalise, but these days we only get news of what type of judges have become judges in this country (in this case for an even worse subject). Again, maybe they are just a minority....but still. Even if just some, it's somewhat problematic.

I'm not sure what exact ruling you're referring to in your first paragraph, but yes, judges are under a lot of different pressures when they're trying a very popular case. Pressure from the media, the government, different political parties or even powerful companies or associations... I'm sure judges and courts in Catalonia also feel pressure when they judge a case related to the independence process as it's such a contentious issue, but I'd never accuse the regional government of trying to unduly interfere with a judge's decision without some kind of hard evidence.

Overzealous judges are indeed a problem. I feel that the Spanish government dumping this issue on them rather than trying to solve it via political means is mainly to blame, though the Catalan politicians clear disregard of the law and the Constitution (and said disregard being part of their political rhetoric) is as well, and was bound to put them at odds with the Spanish judiciary. I'm confident this is an issue that will be solved in the long run (via the ECJ, if nothing else) but that's little consolation to people who are being kept pre-emptively in jail.

[Meera of Tarth]

On 5/18/2018 at 1:29 PM, Mentat said:

I really like the Catalan socialists. If I had my legal residence in Catalonia I would have voted for them. Iceta's intervention in the debate on Monday was by far the best, I thought.

Ciudadanos suck. It's a pity, because their success is due in part to an anti-Catalan reaction in the rest of Spain due to the independence process, but the anti-Catalan sentiment (which PP was championing 10 years ago) is partly to blame for the independence movement too, so I guess it's just a vicious circle of bad sentiment and political polarization

That said... I really don't think the PP wants to dismantle the autonomy of the Spanish regions. It's a fundamental part of our Constitution (and has been protected in numerous occasions by the TC). Even Ciudadanos wouldn't really dare (though you wouldn't believe that by reading their press releases...). It's true that the centralization-decentralization balance shifts depending on having a right or left wing central government or whether the party in power has an absolute majority or not, but these are small shifts. I'm pretty certain of this.

I really think that the PP wants to de-escalate the conflict, because it's just in their best interest to do so. The problem is that in order to de-escalate it effectively it would have to reach some kind of agreement with the pro-independence parties (a federal proposal, some sort of state-wide referendum or something like that), so since it doesn't want to do that it's trying to de-escalate it ineffectively (by just hoping Catalan politicians will be scared of reprisals or relent). That said, I think it's at least trying not to fuel the fire any more (by prolonging the intervention of Catalan autonomy or impeding the election of a radically pro-independence president even if they don't like him) despite Ciudadanos nudging them.

Certainly, Ciudadanos want to "dismantle" it little by little, it's to them who I was referring more to in my last post. The dismantlement is implied as the more they'd get, the more they'd want. There would be more regression on Catalonia's autonomy.

PP (especially some sectors) would just prefer more centralisation, others a complete centralised Government from Madrid, others the status quo. Although let's take the example of education recently. They wanted to dismantle the Catalan immersion system (that has been proved as a great success and as a way of social cohesion) and they said it would be very complicated in legal terms (the only reason why they finally didn't do it).  But PP actually wanted to do that one or two months ago. They didn't care about what Catalan society preferred as a whole.

The bolded: and here lies the problem: due to that they prefer more control+centralisation, it's completely unthinkable they can reach an agreement even if the other part wanted. (And in very very rare occasions -but real ones-even Puigdemont has actuallly asked for dialogue in general, not only in terms of independence, in his words the last months). 

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BTW, that 70% of the votes figure is misleading, I think. The three parties that are pro-independence (ERC, JxCAT and CUP) got a 47,32% of the votes between the three of them. If you lump the Comuns with them (which I'm not sure you should...), that goes up to 54,75%. You need to add PSC to reach that 70% figure (and I really think that's cavalier). Though they might all desire a higher degree of self-governance, they disagree very much on what and how that should be. The CUP wouldn't even consider negotiating with the Spanish state as they think Catalonia is already an independent republic, while PSC would oppose any move contrary to the Constitution.

I don't think they are misleading. See this post of mine in this same thread. Bottom line.

 

More than ten years ago the Catalan Parliament agreed on something in spite of the differences. The fact that in their electoral programs the word Nation appears is something that still happens today.

But of course, I see what your point is  The rest is very different.

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I'm not sure what exact ruling you're referring to in your first paragraph,

We discussed this earlier in this thread.

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but yes, judges are under a lot of different pressures when they're trying a very popular case. Pressure from the media, the government, different political parties or even powerful companies or associations... I'm sure judges and courts in Catalonia also feel pressure when they judge a case related to the independence process as it's such a contentious issue, but I'd never accuse the regional government of trying to unduly interfere with a judge's decision without some kind of hard evidence.

Yes, I'd say not only pressures, but also personal preferences...

 

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Overzealous judges are indeed a problem. I feel that the Spanish government dumping this issue on them rather than trying to solve it via political means is mainly to blame, though the Catalan politicians clear disregard of the law and the Constitution (and said disregard being part of their political rhetoric) is as well, and was bound to put them at odds with the Spanish judiciary. I'm confident this is an issue that will be solved in the long run (via the ECJ, if nothing else) but that's little consolation to people who are being kept pre-emptively in jail.

I'm not sure if all this can be solved.

[Mentat]

On 5/18/2018 at 3:24 PM, Meera of Tarth said:

The bolded: and here lies the problem: due to that they prefer more control+centralisation, it's completely unthinkable they can reach an agreement even if the other part wanted. (And in very very rare occasions -but real ones-even Puigdemont has actuallly asked for dialogue in general, not only in terms of independence, in his words the last months).

I've become quite wary of people saying they want to dialogue as of late. I think sometimes it means "I want you to fold" (as in Rajoy's latest) and other times it's just a straight lie (as in Torrà's latest). I think the last effective agreement (if short lived) was with the Zapatero government and the last attempt at honest dialogue was probably with Artur Más (and I'm sure Rajoy wishes he hadn't slammed the door in his face now...). I agree it's currently impossible. The Catalan government is far too radical and the Spanish government doesn't have anything resembling a peace offering.

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I don't think they are misleading. See this post of mine in this same thread. Bottom line.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one. I think 'recognizes Catalonia as a nation' is just meaningless if it can mean anything from ('considers that Catalonia is an independent nation from Spain as of 21/12/2017' to 'Would support a federal amendment to the Spanish Constitution'). I see where you're coming from, but to me you're lumping together parties that have a far too different agenda, and this gives an idea of unity or consensus that sadly doesn't exist.

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We discussed this earlier in this thread.

I'm sure you're right, but this thread is several months old, and there are a lot of judicial rulings out there. I'll do some digging when I have more time.

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I'm not sure if all this can be solved.

I hope you're wrong... I can basically see two solutions to this: a Catalan republic independent from Spain as a (more or less) fraternal self sovereign nation within the EU or a broad agreement about territorial organization and funding within Spain which most Catalans and Spaniards agree to as an acceptable alternative to independence and is ratified as a modification to the Constitution (the pro-independence parties losing their majority in the Catalan parliament would bring a brief respite to the problem, but I don't think it would really solve anything). The problem is that any of this seems extremely unlikely right now.

In the less rosy real life, Quim Torrà has appointed two people in preventive prison and two self exiled politicians to his regional government, and Rajoy has said he won't stand for it and is refusing to publish said nomination in the official bulletin or to cease regional intervention until Torrà appoints a 'proper' regional government. Meanwhile, PNV, who have to vote on Rajoy's budget next Wednesday are not amused...

If PNV busts the budget, PSOE (who have problems of their own right now) will probably try to topple Rajoy (and they just might succeed, because Ciudadanos like their chances in a general election right now). If PNV supports the budget, it will be seen as the Basque nationalists supporting Rajoy over the Catalan nationalists. It will probably be very unpopular with their voters.

[Meera of Tarth]

On 5/21/2018 at 9:27 AM, Mentat said:

I've become quite wary of people saying they want to dialogue as of late. I think sometimes it means "I want you to fold" (as in Rajoy's latest) and other times it's just a straight lie (as in Torrà's latest). I think the last effective agreement (if short lived) was with the Zapatero government and the last attempt at honest dialogue was probably with Artur Más (and I'm sure Rajoy wishes he hadn't slammed the door in his face now...). I agree it's currently impossible. 

Possibly, but it's never too late for that IMO. Another thing, is that the situation makes it viable or not, of course. It's so difficult.

 

On 5/21/2018 at 9:27 AM, Mentat said:

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one. I think 'recognizes Catalonia as a nation' is just meaningless if it can mean anything from ('considers that Catalonia is an independent nation from Spain as of 21/12/2017' to 'Would support a federal amendment to the Spanish Constitution'). I see where you're coming from, but to me you're lumping together parties that have a far too different agenda, and this gives an idea of unity or consensus that sadly doesn't exist.

Yes, of course it means many things, but it's something they agree with, even with their differences, and something that shares a social consensus in the Catalan society, since a long long time ago. And it's sure not meaningless too many people, since the conflict started in part because the word Nation appeared as an statement in the Preface  of the New Statute IIRC (saying agreed in the Catalan Parliament with vast majority as how people feels or something along these lines), though not even made official in the Statute, but eventhough it was completely dismantled. For many people it is important.

On 5/21/2018 at 9:27 AM, Mentat said:

I'm sure you're right, but this thread is several months old, and there are a lot of judicial rulings out there. I'll do some digging when I have more time.

I hope you're wrong... I can basically see two solutions to this: a Catalan republic independent from Spain as a (more or less) fraternal self sovereign nation within the EU or a broad agreement about territorial organization and funding within Spain which most Catalans and Spaniards agree to as an acceptable alternative to independence and is ratified as a modification to the Constitution (the pro-independence parties losing their majority in the Catalan parliament would bring a brief respite to the problem, but I don't think it would really solve anything). The problem is that any of this seems extremely unlikely right now.

 

 

Yep, There are many possible solutions, the only way is talking and accepting that problems have to be resolved this way, not in the courts.

The other thing is if they'll or if they are willing to do so....

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In the less rosy real life, Quim Torrà has appointed two people in preventive prison and two self exiled politicians to his regional government, and Rajoy has said he won't stand for it and is refusing to publish said nomination in the official bulletin or to cease regional intervention until Torrà appoints a 'proper' regional government. Meanwhile, PNV, who have to vote on Rajoy's budget next Wednesday are not amused...

If PNV busts the budget, PSOE (who have problems of their own right now) will probably try to topple Rajoy (and they just might succeed, because Ciudadanos like their chances in a general election right now). If PNV supports the budget, it will be seen as the Basque nationalists supporting Rajoy over the Catalan nationalists. It will probably be very unpopular with their voters.

Yes, PP and PSOE don't want to take out the 155 and The potential MP of Culture (on Exile) has written a letter to the European Union.

 

[Mentat]

9 hours ago, Meera of Tarth said:

Possibly, but it's never too late for that IMO. Another thing, is that the situation makes it viable or not, of course. It's so difficult.

Right now it just seems ludicrously unlikely. PNV just backed Rajoy's budget (a decision that was extremely criticized this morning in Catalan public radio, as they had promised they wouldn't unless Rajoy ceased the intervention of Catalan regional government, which so far he hasn't done...) so his government is safe for now, at least for the time being.

Rajoy doesn't really have the stomach for any kind of Constitutional amendment right now. He says (and he's not wrong), that there's an utter lack of consensus amongst Spaniards on what Spanish territorial organization should be. Any major modification to the Constitution would require a state-wide referendum, and it would be very tricky. Most importantly, though, there's a lack of political will to do so. It would be unpopular with Conservative voters who favor a more centralized territorial organization and which PP counts on.

On the other side of the fence, the newly elected Catalan government is pretty radical. Quim Torrà has said he wants to dialogue, but his actions speak of confrontation. Every choice he has made so far has been something he knew the Spanish government would strongly object to. Even the choice of someone so unabashedly anti-Spain is a poor start if dialogue was the goal.

So basically, we need a left-wing Spanish government in power in Spain that's willing to modify the Constitution to expand and secure regional government rule (PSOE and Podemos would likely be on board with this) and a Catalan regional government that's willing to play the long game and settle for less than a binding independence referendum in Catalonia. Right now we have neither, and neither seem a likely prospect in the near future. The whole thing would also have to be subject to a referendum, which as I said would be tricky. A strong opposition by conservative parties would make it likely to fail, so they'd pretty much have to let it slide as the lesser of two evils. Since all this is pretty clearly wishful thinking, we'll have to settle for polarisation, radicalism and the aforementioned clash of trains...

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Yes, PP and PSOE don't want to take out the 155 and The potential MP of Culture (on Exile) has written a letter to the European Union.

Letters to the EU are not likely to do much good. The EU as an institution won't touch this issue with a ten foot pole. I'm not even sure they should...

[Meera of Tarth]

6 hours ago, Mentat said:

Right now it just seems ludicrously unlikely. PNV just backed Rajoy's budget (a decision that was extremely criticized this morning in Catalan public radio, as they had promised they wouldn't unless Rajoy ceased the intervention of Catalan regional government, which so far he hasn't done...) so his government is safe for now, at least for the time being.

Oh no....first news about that. I'm very disappointed with that!

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Rajoy doesn't really have the stomach for any kind of Constitutional amendment right now. He says (and he's not wrong), that there's an utter lack of consensus amongst Spaniards on what Spanish territorial organization should be. Any major modification to the Constitution would require a state-wide referendum, and it would be very tricky. Most importantly, though, there's a lack of political will to do so. It would be unpopular with Conservative voters who favor a more centralized territorial organization and which PP counts on.

On the other side of the fence, the newly elected Catalan government is pretty radical. Quim Torrà has said he wants to dialogue, but his actions speak of confrontation. Every choice he has made so far has been something he knew the Spanish government would strongly object to. Even the choice of someone so unabashedly anti-Spain is a poor start if dialogue was the goal.

Yes, I know Rajoy won't, at all, and now even less after the budgets....

And the new Catalan Government (if it is gonna exist, which is doubtful since Rajoy doesn't let it happen bc he is in control) is not gonna make thing easy. Not even easier for those who are still in preventive jail (although not sure that other actions/words could let them go out of preventive jail either......)

However, as I said, sometimes I don't get them either. They say it's all about the Republic and Torra also talks directly to CUP in his speeches, but later offers unconditional dialogue to Rajoy. I don't like the worl "radical", but I know what you mean. Not sure up to which point they'd continue being "so-Republican-direct" if other proposititions from the Spanish Government were to happen. (even if I know they are totally independentists).

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So basically, we need a left-wing Spanish government in power in Spain that's willing to modify the Constitution to expand and secure regional government rule (PSOE and Podemos would likely be on board with this) and a Catalan regional government that's willing to play the long game and settle for less than a binding independence referendum in Catalonia. Right now we have neither, and neither seem a likely prospect in the near future. The whole thing would also have to be subject to a referendum, which as I said would be tricky. A strong opposition by conservative parties would make it likely to fail, so they'd pretty much have to let it slide as the lesser of two evils. Since all this is pretty clearly wishful thinking, we'll have to settle for polarisation, radicalism and the aforementioned clash of trains...

Yes, that could be a solution. However, I do know that an ammendment of the Constitution is not compulsory at all. By talking they could do many things if they wanted. If Spain wanted to de-escalate the conflict. For instance, approve the so-called New Statute from ten+ years ago, basically saying to do it again, new referendum, and this time, approving itagain but not sabotaging it. And the CC not doing anything against it. That could be a beginning. 

Political agreements, like the Basques have.

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Letters to the EU are not likely to do much good. The EU as an institution won't touch this issue with a ten foot pole. I'm not even sure they should...

They won't do anything. Here I should disagree. I'm very disappointed with the EU in general with this conflict.

Maybe other courts could help in the civil rights that are being denied.

@Tijgy are you aware of the current Catalan situation with the election of the new members of the Catalan Government?

[Mentat]

15 hours ago, Meera of Tarth said:

Oh no....first news about that. I'm very disappointed with that!

Yes, I know Rajoy won't, at all, and now even less after the budgets....

There seems to be hope yet. Yesterday the Audiencia Nacional (one of the highest Spanish courts, and also one that has been consistently criticized by Catalan independence supporters for being in cahoots with the Government after the imprisonment of the two Jordis) decreed a devastating sentence against the PP for the Gürtel corruption racket with very long prison sentences and an explicit declaration that the PP was complicit and benefited from it and that it had been running shadow account books. PSOE has said that they'll be moving for a vote of no confidence against Rajoy, and Ciudadanos might just back them (probably on the condition of general elections being held immediately after).

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And the new Catalan Government (if it is gonna exist, which is doubtful since Rajoy doesn't let it happen bc he is in control) is not gonna make thing easy. Not even easier for those who are still in preventive jail (although not sure that other actions/words could let them go out of preventive jail either......)

Rajoy will let the Catalan's form a government provided it's composed of 'clean' candidates. In fact I'd argue Rajoy very much wants the Catalans to form a government and cease regional intervention. It's in his best interest. The problem is Torrà wanted to appoint to people in prison and two people in self-imposed exile with an arrest warrant pending to his government. Rajoy (more or less understandably) put his foot down. To me it's pretty clear that Torrà was looking for this exact outcome. The legal counsel of these politicians appointed to the government have consistently stated that these appointments are unlikely to help their case come the trial.

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However, as I said, sometimes I don't get them either. They say it's all about the Republic and Torra also talks directly to CUP in his speeches, but later offers unconditional dialogue to Rajoy. I don't like the worl "radical", but I know what you mean. Not sure up to which point they'd continue being "so-Republican-direct" if other proposititions from the Spanish Government were to happen. (even if I know they are totally independentists).

As I said as well, I don't give any credence to these offers of dialogue. I think they're political posturing (on both sides) so as not to be seen as intransigent. I'm not even sure how much authority Torrà has to reach some kind of a deal if he really wanted to. Although he is president, it's been made clear that his is an interim government with the main goal of restoring Puigdemont.

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Yes, that could be a solution. However, I do know that an ammendment of the Constitution is not compulsory at all. By talking they could do many things if they wanted. If Spain wanted to de-escalate the conflict. For instance, approve the so-called New Statute from ten+ years ago, basically saying to do it again, new referendum, and this time, approving itagain but not sabotaging it. And the CC not doing anything against it. That could be a beginning. 

The Statute that was repealed by the TC couldn't be passed again without a prior modification of the Constitution (because it would be just as unconstitutional the second time round...). The TC jurisprudence would stand. So just modify the Constitution... I would be totally in favor of that.

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Political agreements, like the Basques have.

The Basque situation is complicated. On the one hand they managed to wangle a privileged economic deal into the Constitution (which almost everyone outside of the Basque agree is unfair, but is a political powder keg that no one dares touch), but on the other they're (currently) pretty lawful. PNV is letting the Catalan conflict play out, giving lip service to the Catalans (but as we just saw, falling short of real support). 

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Maybe other courts could help in the civil rights that are being denied.

The ECJ can certainly help with civil rights issues in an appeal (though this will take some time).