Brienne's Honor in Pennytree

[Curled Finger]

2 hours ago, Lady Dacey said:

Still lurking here... it's amazing to read you guys! 

@LynnS I'm with @Curled Finger, Jaime hasn't broken his vows. At least he believes he hasn't - those vows to Catelyn were certainly very important to him and he did all he could to keep them. Let's take a look: 

Jaime holds the vows he made to Catelyn above the others. Jaime is pragmatic, he sees the world as it is, not as he's learned it should be or how he'd like it to be (that's our lady Brienne!). He knows very well one can't keep as many vows as he's made, he knows it's impossible to keep one oath without forfeiting others at some point. And he chooses. Jaime is choosing honor. He is choosing the one vow it would be easiest to invalidate (it was made at sword point!) because it's the vow that made possible for him to have some honor! It's the vow he made when his life turned upside down, when he was freed from captivity to be his own man for the first time. It's the vow he made together with Brienne... it's precious for him for many reasons. He is content that he hasn't broken it.

UnCat may believe he's broken his vows, but I'm of the opinion that so far he hasn't, and he won't. 

Lady, welcome back.  At the risk of overstepping my bounds here, as that's not my intention, I think it's probable that Jamie is keeping his vows in his own mind.  That doesn't matter in the least to LSH.   She hasn't received the results she demanded.  Jamie's faith may be too late in coming for her taste.   That's where I get hopelessly lost.   How can you prove your heart to someone who doesn't accept it?   Will Jamie's faith cost him his life?  Jamie was her best, maybe only hope for recovering her daughters.  She believed him.  That doesn't stop her from grabbing Brienne by the throat, or hanging her.  I suffer a disconnect here.  Is this really about Jamie and Brienne keeping oaths?  Is this about vengeance?  

[Curled Finger]

2 hours ago, LynnS said:

That's the key qualifier.  Jaime thinks that laying seige to Riverrun isn't taking up arms if here is no violence or personal violence.  I would argue that this is too literal an interpretation.  He's walking a fine line because laying seige is taking up arms or surrounding your opponent with arms. A threat of violence is still an assault and I don't think LSH will be concerned about the finer points. 

You make an excellent point here.   We know Jamie didn't lay the siege.  He does in fact, end it without arms.   A threat is all it took.  LSH must know Jamie wasn't there.   

The quotes this morning regarding LSH's agenda--her children restored to life, etc.  Were enlightening to me.  Could she really be holding Jamie responsible for the RW?    How is it possible to reconcile what LSH thinks with what Jamie and even Brienne think? 

[Curled Finger]

1 hour ago, HelenaExMachina said:

I think there is a good reason Tom o Sevens was in the tent for the trebuchet comment. Regardless of whether we the reader believe the siege is Jaime breaking his vows, or whether we believe his threat was sincere, Tom o Sevens heard it, and can report it back to the Brotherhood

It's a pleasure to have you with us, Helena!  This is an important point.  A threat may be all LSH needed.   I don't know where you stand on the reliability of the timeline.   I assume a variance of  +/- a few days, but not as much as a week.   The problem with where I place my faith, is that Tom is at RR and LSH is between the Red and Blue Forks near the Trident.  I estimate the distance at roughly 100 miles, requiring at least 2 day's fast ride.   LSH is already determined to get Jamie well before the Edmure threat.  Be honest, I realize I may be relying too heavily on this timeline.   

[Curled Finger]

25 minutes ago, divica said:

No. I think varys is saying to every targ supporter is westeros that fAegon is really rhaegar's son. So only him, ilirio and maybe some members of the golden company know the truth about fAegon. In addition we know that varys has some plan since AGoT. And that the BwB is unifying the smallfolk against the lannisters. This can even explain why they chose LSH as their leader. If they want to make the riverlands side with fAegon it is useful to have a tully saying fAegon should be the king.

And I think if Peck is spying it should be for a Lannyster (tywin, kevan or cersei). He is a young man from a house in the westerlands that testifies against tyrion... It seems he is very pro lannyster.

 

Ah, dang it, divica, I've probably screwed up the identity of the young man with Jamie.   It is a Vance boy-he's maybe 15.   They tease him about having a beard or dirt on his face.   Of course, Kevan or Cersei enlisting someone to spy on Jamie is a new one and you know I love new!  Very interesting!

Thank you for clarifying your stance on Vary's plan.   I see what you mean now.   

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

Just dropping by a quick second to say I haven't left, just trying to catch up! 

[Curled Finger]

11 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Just dropping by a quick second to say I haven't left, just trying to catch up! 

It's almost not worth sleeping at this point! 

[Zapho]

1 hour ago, Curled Finger said:

I thought Jamie burning Cersei's letter, not to mention his thoughts, was and indication of Jamie's change in affection if not alliance?   His current mission seems to be very much in Cersei's service.  However, he thinks to himself repeatedly, about how to unravel the siege at Riverrun without breaking his faith with Cat.   I realize the siege itself may be enough to have broken faith.   Perhaps Jamie doesn't understand the extent to which LSH holds the debts owed to her?  

I have a feeling that this is really important. We get Jamie's reasoning that he's not breaking his oath to Cat through his own POV. To be quite honest, I think he is making excuses to himself. Deep down he knows that he is breaking his oath. And there was a BWB witness to his oath-breaking, as HelenaExMachina pointed out. A piece of information Brienne did not have while she defended Jamie before the BWB and LSH. But she would have learned this before she set out to meet Jamie.

This would have an impact on Brienne's choices. I think she loves Jamie, but her sense of duty and honor would sway her if she learned what happened at the siege of Riverrun. Brienne takes her oaths seriously and she swore to kill Jamie if he didn't keep up his own. It wouldn't have been an easy choice for her, but I think she wouldn't have chosen "Sword" if she hadn't meant to deliver on that choice. The choice was very clear: Take the sword and kill the Kingslayer (personally, imo) or the Noose. 

A lot of things might have happened so that Jamie did not die by her hand but I think the possibility that he did can not be ruled out. R. I. P. Jamie is definitely an option. 

The fact that no body was found and news hadn't reached KL a couple of weeks later is not very compelling counter-evidence. Communications are hampered and the BWB are outlaws. There's also the possibility that LSH, the Brotherhood or the FM are planning to use Jamie's 'ghost' or 'face' in a scheme of their own. While Jamie might have been reluctant to help in a Red Wedding 2.0 for example, a FM impersonating him wouldn't be. It's also possible that they want to use the possibility of him still being alive in a manner the Lannisters used fArya: have a fJamie give legitimacy to an attempt to seize Casterly Rock maybe. The possibilities provided by a fake are probably more numerous than the ones the real Jamie would afford. Cause the fake doesn't have real Jamie's annoying loyalties to house Lannister. 

[Curled Finger]

30 minutes ago, Zapho said:

I have a feeling that this is really important. We get Jamie's reasoning that he's not breaking his oath to Cat through his own POV. To be quite honest, I think he is making excuses to himself. Deep down he knows that he is breaking his oath. And there was a BWB witness to his oath-breaking, as HelenaExMachina pointed out. A piece of information Brienne did not have while she defended Jamie before the BWB and LSH. But she would have learned this before she set out to meet Jamie.

This would have an impact on Brienne's choices. I think she loves Jamie, but her sense of duty and honor would sway her if she learned what happened at the siege of Riverrun. Brienne takes her oaths seriously and she swore to kill Jamie if he didn't keep up his own. It wouldn't have been an easy choice for her, but I think she wouldn't have chosen "Sword" if she hadn't meant to deliver on that choice. The choice was very clear: Take the sword and kill the Kingslayer (personally, imo) or the Noose. 

A lot of things might have happened so that Jamie did not die by her hand but I think the possibility that he did can not be ruled out. R. I. P. Jamie is definitely an option. 

The fact that no body was found and news hadn't reached KL a couple of weeks later is not very compelling counter-evidence. Communications are hampered and the BWB are outlaws. There's also the possibility that LSH, the Brotherhood or the FM are planning to use Jamie's 'ghost' or 'face' in a scheme of their own. While Jamie might have been reluctant to help in a Red Wedding 2.0 for example, a FM impersonating him wouldn't be. It's also possible that they want to use the possibility of him still being alive in a manner the Lannisters used fArya: have a fJamie give legitimacy to an attempt to seize Casterly Rock maybe. The possibilities provided by a fake are probably more numerous than the ones the real Jamie would afford. Cause the fake doesn't have real Jamie's annoying loyalties to house Lannister. 

Dang Zapho, what took you so long to jump in?   You've made some great points here.  I think you are the 1st to state that Jamie knows he's breaking his oaths.  That's a new and shiny one.  Sorry, I have gone back to read thrice now.   Let me ask about 1st things 1st.  Do you reject the idea that Jamie is on a redemption arc?  Or do you think his efforts are inadequate? 

Off the top of my head you've got a good grasp on how the Faceless Men could play into this.  Wish you could see the little light switch on over my head. 

Better late than never.  Thanks so much for joining in the discussion.  

[Haus Berlin]

12 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Welcome Haus Berlin, welcome to the discussion.  There are some really interesting posts herein.  You made some interesting statements yourself, Ser.   What is this Jamie only gave Brienne the quest because she was hopeless?  Are you thinking that Jamie didn't take his own part in the vows seriously?   He was no longer bound?  As you read through you will find that I'm not so quick on the uptake.   Not a challenge, I'm just trying to understand.  Never occurred to me Jamie felt his vows forfeit in Catelyn's death.  Or that Brienne had no direction resulting in a loss of identity. (...)

 

@Curled Finger:

Thanks for your warm welcome and your interest to understand my view. Only through your questions I realized that I hadn’t shared my full vision of that situation yet. After answering your questions, I'll return to that.

 

What is this Jamie only gave Brienne the quest because she was hopeless?

Brienne gaped like a cow about to choke on her cud, so it fell to Jaime to draw out the tale of the Red Wedding. “Every great lord has unruly bannermen who envy him his place,” he told her afterward. “My father had the Reynes and Tarbecks, the Tyrells have the Florents, Hoster Tully had Walder Frey. Only strength keeps such men in their place. The moment they smell weakness... during the Age of Heroes, the Boltons used to flay the Starks and wear their skins as cloaks.” She looked so miserable that Jaime almost found himself wanting to comfort her. Since that day Brienne had been like one half-dead. Even calling her “wench” failed to provoke any response. The strength is gone from her. The woman had dropped a rock on Robin Ryger, battled a bear with a tourney sword, bitten off Vargo Float’s ear, and fought Jaime to exhaustion... but she was broken now, done. “I’ll speak to my father about returning you to Tarth, if it please you,” he told her. “Or if you would rather stay, I could perchance find some place for you at court.” “As a lady companion to the queen?” she said dully. Jaime remembered the sight of her in that pink satin gown, and tried not to imagine what his sister might say of such a companion. “Perhaps a post with the City Watch...” “I will not serve with oathbreakers and murderers.” Then why did you ever bother putting on a sword? he might have said, but he bit back the words. “As you will, Brienne.” (ASOS)

Here Jaime understands that Brienne bears no hope for either option: returning to Tarth or staying in KL. Her purpose was serving, but with Renly and Catelyn gone, there’s no one left she had chosen for herself. She would need to move and find someone worthy of her service.

 

Are you thinking that Jamie didn't take his own part in the vows seriously? He was no longer bound?

ASOS: “A sword so fine must bear a name. It would please me if you would call this one Oathkeeper. One more thing. The blade comes with a price.” Her face darkened. “I told you, I will never serve...” “... such foul creatures as us. Yes, I recall. Hear me out, Brienne. Both of us swore oaths concerning Sansa Stark. Cersei means to see that the girl is found and killed, wherever she has gone to ground...” Brienne’s homely face twisted in fury. “If you believe that I would harm my lady’s daughter for a sword, you -” “Just listen,” he snapped, angered by her assumption. “I want you to find Sansa first, and get her somewhere safe. How else are the two of us going to make good our stupid vows to your precious dead Lady Catelyn? The wench blinked. “I... I thought...” “I know what you thought.” Suddenly Jaime was sick of the sight of her. She bleats like a bloody sheep. “When Ned Stark died, his greatsword was given to the King’s justice,” he told her. “But my father felt that such a fine blade was wasted on a mere headsman. He gave Ser Ilyn a new sword, and had Ice melted down and reforged. There was enough metal for two new blades. You’re holding one. So you’ll be defending Ned Stark’s daughter with Ned Stark’s own steel, if that makes any difference to you.” “Ser, I... I owe you an apolo...” He cut her off. “Take the bloody sword and go, before I change my mind. There’s a bay mare in the stables, as homely as you are but somewhat better trained. Chase after Steelshanks, search for Sansa, or ride home to your isle of sapphires, it’s naught to me. I don’t want to look at you anymore.”

Of course, this is only how I read it, but Jaime seems to pass his part of the vow here completely to Brienne. Only much later in the books he begins to wonder if Sansa is safe and how to spare Tullys. Like the real half-deads in this series, Brienne won’t come up with interests of her own, so Jaime gives her his cause to get her moving.

 

 

It was speculated whether a trial or a mission awaits Jaime, when he is off with Brienne. I opt for a (well-hidden) mission, since everything concerning the Kingslayer would make terribly good news and spread fast. I also don’t think that GRRM withholds an interesting story only to give us flashbacks of it. So I guess that nothing big happened yet; Jaime is really just in the woods with Brienne, as was reported to Cersei.

Only that I’m sure, that Brienne died together with Pod and Hyle on Lem’s hand, but was “lucky” to receive the dubious mercy of being revived by LSH’s kiss, so to take her vows more seriously. Not that she knows what became of her: Brienne never lived so much as to miss much in life. To her, LSH is simply gone and Brienne tries to make the best of a leaderless BwB, who still despises her. The best for her would be, that the Lannister army retreats, so that Riverrun is free to be transformed into a place safe for Sansa. (Who would ever seek shelter in Riverland’s chaos?) To achieve this, Brienne isolates the army from its Lord Commander, Jaime, who really cares more for Brienne the moment he sees her again, than for the quest. Pod’s and Hyle’s deaths made it clear to Brienne, that Lem “the hound” would kill “the girl”, the Maid of Tarth, gladly. She would need to present the BwB something big to survive the Brotherhood's struggle for a post-LSH-order.

Waiting for a leaderless Lannister army to retreat shouldn't take long, now Cersei is disappointed by Jaime, who was no help during her trial and now  Vary’s well-placed murders turn KL into a frightful place. Riverrun freed without bloodshed is quite something to (re-)introduce yourself with to the BwB. And Jaime might come up with something too. How about supplies from Highgarden and political recognition by the king in exchange for freedom? Jaime might offer the Tyrells cooperation as Lord Commander and he might plot Tommen’s kidnapping to lure Cersei out of KL’s danger into Casterly Rock’s isolation, where she beliefs to meet Jaime and her son again. In return for such political easing, Jaime can ask to provide the Riverlands with supplies and neutrality. (Ah, of course this plan wouldn’t work out. Without any Lannister left in KL Varys has free way to annul Tommen’s marriage and marry Aegon to Margaery.)

[Curled Finger]

32 minutes ago, Haus Berlin said:

 

@Curled Finger:

Thanks for your warm welcome and your interest to understand my view. Only through your questions I realized that I hadn’t shared my full vision of that situation yet. After answering your questions, I'll return to that.

 

What is this Jamie only gave Brienne the quest because she was hopeless?

Brienne gaped like a cow about to choke on her cud, so it fell to Jaime to draw out the tale of the Red Wedding. “Every great lord has unruly bannermen who envy him his place,” he told her afterward. “My father had the Reynes and Tarbecks, the Tyrells have the Florents, Hoster Tully had Walder Frey. Only strength keeps such men in their place. The moment they smell weakness... during the Age of Heroes, the Boltons used to flay the Starks and wear their skins as cloaks.” She looked so miserable that Jaime almost found himself wanting to comfort her. Since that day Brienne had been like one half-dead. Even calling her “wench” failed to provoke any response. The strength is gone from her. The woman had dropped a rock on Robin Ryger, battled a bear with a tourney sword, bitten off Vargo Float’s ear, and fought Jaime to exhaustion... but she was broken now, done. “I’ll speak to my father about returning you to Tarth, if it please you,” he told her. “Or if you would rather stay, I could perchance find some place for you at court.” “As a lady companion to the queen?” she said dully. Jaime remembered the sight of her in that pink satin gown, and tried not to imagine what his sister might say of such a companion. “Perhaps a post with the City Watch...” “I will not serve with oathbreakers and murderers.” Then why did you ever bother putting on a sword? he might have said, but he bit back the words. “As you will, Brienne.” (ASOS)

Here Jaime understands that Brienne bears no hope for either option: returning to Tarth or staying in KL. Her purpose was serving, but with Renly and Catelyn gone, there’s no one left she had chosen for herself. She would need to move and find someone worthy of her service.

 

Are you thinking that Jamie didn't take his own part in the vows seriously? He was no longer bound?

ASOS: “A sword so fine must bear a name. It would please me if you would call this one Oathkeeper. One more thing. The blade comes with a price.” Her face darkened. “I told you, I will never serve...” “... such foul creatures as us. Yes, I recall. Hear me out, Brienne. Both of us swore oaths concerning Sansa Stark. Cersei means to see that the girl is found and killed, wherever she has gone to ground...” Brienne’s homely face twisted in fury. “If you believe that I would harm my lady’s daughter for a sword, you -” “Just listen,” he snapped, angered by her assumption. “I want you to find Sansa first, and get her somewhere safe. How else are the two of us going to make good our stupid vows to your precious dead Lady Catelyn? The wench blinked. “I... I thought...” “I know what you thought.” Suddenly Jaime was sick of the sight of her. She bleats like a bloody sheep. “When Ned Stark died, his greatsword was given to the King’s justice,” he told her. “But my father felt that such a fine blade was wasted on a mere headsman. He gave Ser Ilyn a new sword, and had Ice melted down and reforged. There was enough metal for two new blades. You’re holding one. So you’ll be defending Ned Stark’s daughter with Ned Stark’s own steel, if that makes any difference to you.” “Ser, I... I owe you an apolo...” He cut her off. “Take the bloody sword and go, before I change my mind. There’s a bay mare in the stables, as homely as you are but somewhat better trained. Chase after Steelshanks, search for Sansa, or ride home to your isle of sapphires, it’s naught to me. I don’t want to look at you anymore.”

Of course, this is only how I read it, but Jaime seems to pass his part of the vow here completely to Brienne. Only much later in the books he begins to wonder if Sansa is safe and how to spare Tullys. Like the real half-deads in this series, Brienne won’t come up with interests of her own, so Jaime gives her his cause to get her moving.

 

 

It was speculated whether a trial or a mission awaits Jaime, when he is off with Brienne. I opt for a (well-hidden) mission, since everything concerning the Kingslayer would make terribly good news and spread fast. I also don’t think that GRRM withholds an interesting story only to give us flashbacks of it. So I guess that nothing big happened yet; Jaime is really just in the woods with Brienne, as was reported to Cersei.

Only that I’m sure, that Brienne died together with Pod and Hyle on Lem’s hand, but was “lucky” to receive the dubious mercy of being revived by LSH’s kiss, so to take her vows more seriously. Not that she knows what became of her: Brienne never lived so much as to miss much in life. To her, LSH is simply gone and Brienne tries to make the best of a leaderless BwB, who still despises her. The best for her would be, that the Lannister army retreats, so that Riverrun is free to be transformed into a place safe for Sansa. (Who would ever seek shelter in Riverland’s chaos?) To achieve this, Brienne isolates the army from its Lord Commander, Jaime, who really cares more for Brienne the moment he sees her again, than for the quest. Pod’s and Hyle’s deaths made it clear to Brienne, that Lem “the hound” would kill “the girl”, the Maid of Tarth, gladly. She would need to present the BwB something big to survive the Brotherhood's struggle for a post-LSH-order.

Waiting for a leaderless Lannister army to retreat shouldn't take long, now Cersei is disappointed by Jaime, who was no help during her trial and now  Vary’s well-placed murders turn KL into a frightful place. Riverrun freed without bloodshed is quite something to (re-)introduce yourself with to the BwB. And Jaime might come up with something too. How about supplies from Highgarden and political recognition by the king in exchange for freedom? Jaime might offer the Tyrells cooperation as Lord Commander and he might plot Tommen’s kidnapping to lure Cersei out of KL’s danger into Casterly Rock’s isolation, where she beliefs to meet Jaime and her son again. In return for such political easing, Jaime can ask to provide the Riverlands with supplies and neutrality. (Ah, of course this plan wouldn’t work out. Without any Lannister left in KL Varys has free way to annul Tommen’s marriage and marry Aegon to Margaery.)

It's a rare thing to receive the gift of a complete explanation in a single post, Ser.  Holy cow!  Thank you!  Wow.  I completely see where you're coming from now.  

You've given fine evidence of Jamie transferring his vows to Brienne as well as her utter despondence over Catelyn's death.  Because I've just completed reading the last 4 Jamie chapters I have to ask if you discount his repeated thoughts about keeping his vows?  Could it be that at the time Jamie gifted Brienne with Oathkeeper he had to take a stern and perhaps deceptive approach with her?  Perhaps to refocus her?  (Or even perhaps was reminded simply by being back in the place the vows were made? He does not make a straight line for Riverrun, which I find curious.) 

I do enjoy the idea that Brienne may have died in her hanging...ghastly as it is. That LSH would revive her is so interesting.   We have so many folks here who will find other parts of your position interesting I think it would be greedy of me to go down the line.  You've offered quite a scenario of you own here and I'm very eager to see what our other participants see here.  

Have you had a chance to take a look at our timeline of events?   I think there is a summary back on page 12 that I posted for the sake of brevity.  May ask for your appraisal since you've proven to have a very keen eye for detail? 

[aryagonnakill#2]

Is there a thread to discuss the timeline?  I would like to point out an error.

[Curled Finger]

6 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Is there a thread to discuss the timeline?  I would like to point out an error.

Please, if it's regarding Jamie & Brienne, lay it on us.  @kissdbyfire was kind enough to share this timeline with us early in this topic.   I am not aware of a topic specific to the timeline.  

[aryagonnakill#2]

It's not.

[Clegane'sPup]

19 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Is there a thread to discuss the timeline?  I would like to point out an error.

Is this what you are looking for?

 

[Curled Finger]

@aryagonnakill#2Looks like our favorite Pup was right there with the answer.  

[Nittanian]

On 12/30/2017 at 8:21 PM, kissdbyfire said:

I didn't remember that. She leaves KL on horseback, so what we don't know here is where they decided it was too risky to let her be seen. I think there's a good chance she only took the wheelhouse to go from Barrowtown to Winterfell.

Since Jeyne leaves KL on a horse and Theon sees her in a wagon at Moat Cailin, she probably boards the wagon at the Twins.

Quote

Nage raised his peace banner, and the northmen formed a column as ragged as their fur cloaks and trotted out the castle gate. The thin girl on the grey mare looked small and forlorn in their midst. (ASOS Jaime IX)

No crannogman will slay Roose Bolton with a poisoned arrow, Reek thought when he first saw him. An enclosed wagon groaned along behind him, drawn by six heavy draft horses and defended by crossbowmen, front and rear. Curtains of dark blue velvet concealed the wagon's occupants from watching eyes. (ADWD Reek III)

 

On 12/31/2017 at 2:22 PM, Curled Finger said:

I bet you were horrified to see Hyle and Pod and Brienne hung.

"Hanged, Ami. Your father was not a tapestry." 

[Clegane'sPup]

3 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

@aryagonnakill#2Looks like our favorite Pup was right there with the answer.  

Just wanted to say I've been reading an most excellent thread.

[Curled Finger]

14 minutes ago, Nittanian said:

Since Jeyne leaves KL on a horse and Theon sees her in a wagon at Moat Cailin, she probably boards the wagon at the Twins.

 

"Hanged, Ami. Your father was not a tapestry." 

Ah HAPPY New Year, Nittanian.   I just read this passage over the weekend.  GREAT CATCH Stannis!   Well done!

[Curled Finger]

15 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Just wanted to say I've been reading an most excellent thread.

There was a time I believed you were shy.   A long long time ago.   I bet you've already got quotes ready and an amazing hypothesis brewing.   Bring it on when you're ready.   

Thanks for that.   I was just telling an old Riverlands Web friend that this discussion felt so much like the old chats we enjoyed.   It's a completely different experience having many wonderful people willing to jump in and talk to each other keeping the topic alive and buzzing.   Your thoughts are always welcome.  But you knew that! 

[Wizz-The-Smith]

Hey there @Curled Finger I hope you're well, and thanks for an awesome thread. 

I am late to the party and still have to catch up, so forgive me if I am repeating things already covered here, but I thought I would jump in and give my two dragons worth.  

Some things that jumped out at me when reading the first page are as follows.........

Is Brienne lying?  IMO yes.......But I think it is out of necessity due to her precarious situation.  The last time we saw her she was being hanged by the BWB after discussing her ties with Jaime and how he is a reformed character with the aim of finding the Stark girls etc.  The BWB and LSH were very suspicious and not at all happy!  Would they simply let her walk away?  I personally don't think so.  She is in a tonne of trouble, she has a Lannister sword and they don't trust her, plus she's also looking out for Pod [who is probably still their hostage]

The BWB and the river lords are watching Jaime at RR with a load of spies and schemes in action.  They would love to get him alone/speak to him/use him/kill him etc......So how best to do this?  It seems to me it wouldn't escape their attention that having taken Brienne, she is the tool they need to best do this via some sort of communication.  However, they can't just send her to rock up at RR, Jaime is surrounded by his army and advisors, they need to box clever.  If only there was a way to isolate Jaime and make this potential meeting easier........well I think that's exactly what they've done.

Lords Piper & Vance have been helping the Beric & co/BWB since AGOT, and the Vance maester is a confirmed BWB spy, and the Brotherhood can communicate with these river lords even though they're at RR.  Whether it be Tom, the whores or signal fires, I think there was a plan made to isolate Jaime away from RR so Brienne could speak to him and lure him to LSH.  Notice how in this bit of text Karyl Vance manipulates Jaime's actions and convinces him to leave the relative safety of RR to attend the siege at Raventree with a far smaller retinue, therefore weakening his position......... 

Quote

Wolves or no, Ser Dermot took fresh horses and more men and went out again the next morning, to resume the search for Brynden Tully. That same afternoon, the lords of the Trident came to Jaime asking his leave to return to their own lands. He granted it. Lord Piper also wanted to know about his son Marq. "All the captives will be ransomed," Jaime promised. As the riverlords took their leave, Lord Karyl Vance lingered to say, "Lord Jaime, you must go to Raventree. So long as it is Jonos at his gates Tytos will never yield, but I know he will bend his knee for you." Jaime thanked him for his counsel. 

Once Jaime has sorted out the siege at Raventree he confirms that he is headed back to Riverrun......

Quote

 

Lord Tytos got to his feet. "Will you do me the honor of taking supper with me?"

"Some other time, my lord." The castle was starving; no good would be served by Jaime stealing food from their mouths. "I cannot linger. Riverrun awaits."

 

"Riverrun? Or King's Landing?"

 

''Both''

 

 

I found it odd that Tytos wanted absolute confirmation of Jaime's movements [maybe he was just curious?]  But again this gives the river lords and BWB confirmation of his exact destination/path/position in the RL's with spies and informants everywhere.  Then suddenly Brienne appears and just happens to be in this same area looking for the man that the BWB know to be with a smaller retinue.  I don't think it's a coincidence that the one person Jaime would trust/listen to found him so easily, and this one person has the ability to convince Jaime that's it a good idea to leave his men and hostages. 

With Jaime holding hostages and making it very clear to Tytos that any BWB colluding or meddling would result in Hoster losing his head [the same can be said for the other hostages] any scheming/plan would have to be executed with great care.  The only way I see this being avoided while still putting plans into action is to remove Jaime from the position of power enabling him to make such a call.  Using Brienne to separate Jaime from his men is the only way to ensure relative safety for the hostages while still scheming, he's the only one who would make the call to behead hostages, his men wouldn't dare kill one of the river lords flesh and blood when the siege of RR seems to have come to a fruitful conclusion.      

So yes I think Brienne is lying, but it's the only way she can get out of the sticky situation she finds herself in.  Do I think she's betraying Jaime?  No.  I reckon she is hoping for a solution to this problem and to perhaps convince the sceptical LSH and crew that he is a changed man and that she is working with him to find the Stark girls.  But essentially she has no choice, I think it's a case of help the BWB with their plans to get to Jaime or hang. 

As for the girls and the time line......Arya is in Braavos, so it can't be her.  Sansa is in the Vale, has been in the Vale for ages with many eyes on her movements, and is seemingly set to stay in the Vale for a while yet as the Tourney is yet to happen and there is a wedding on the horizon.  Surely her leaving the Vale would be a strange turn of events.  But it's the only line Brienne can use to entice Jaime away.

@Lady Dacey made a good point up thread about Ned saying 'not all lies are without honour', I feel this is one of those occasions whereby it's impossible to say Brienne lacks honour because she is lying, she has no choice and is probably praying Jaime will come to understand once things play out, and praying there can be a somewhat positive outcome to this most precarious of situations.

This topic is so complex I am probably [definitely] missing some info in my thoughts/explanation, George has spun a detailed 'Web' in the RL's and everything seems to be linked at some level.  But basically I think Brienne is having her hand forced, is being watched, and is hoping to dodge a crossbow. 

I shall catch up with the thread asap, and hope to contribute further to the chat.  I love everything Riverlands!!