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Would Rhaegar have stayed with Elia if...


theMADdestScientist_

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She had been able to give him a third child? i don't like to think everything is about prophecy, i really don't, but George writes in a way that i don't really know what to think of, it's so confusing. Rhaegar goes all the way to crown Lyanna the queen of love and beauty for her achievements as the Knight of the Laughing Tree, and then he goes home to have another kid with Elia.

Maester Aemon's speech to Jon Snow tells pretty much what happened in the rebellion: “What is honor compared to a woman’s love? What is duty against the feel of a newborn son in your arms … or the memory of a brother’s smile? Wind and words. Wind and words. We are only human, and the gods have fashioned us for love. That is our great glory, and our great tragedy.

This is so confusing, what i'm trying to understand is: would he have stayed with Elia had she been able to give him a third child? or he would leave her all the same? Rhaegar got himself into deep trouble by going after Lyanna, which makes me think he would have gone after her no matter what, it seems she was very important to him.

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I think that Elia gave birth to Aegon, before Tournament at Harrenhal. So events, that were in the books, happened in this order:

1. Elia and Aegon married. Shortly after their wedding they left KL and went to live to Dragonstone. Next year Rhaenys was born. After that Elia was bedridden for six months. Then the three of them went to KL, and presented Rhaenys to her grandparents. That's when Aerys said that the girl smells Dornish.

2. Some time later Aegon was born. Scene that Dany saw in one of her visions happened then - the one where Rhaegar said to Elia, that dragon has three heads, and that Aegon is TPTWP, and his is the SOIAF.

3. Then during events at Harrenhal Rhaegar has crowned Lyanna, and he knew that she was Knights of Laughting Tree.

4. After tournament Rhaegar didn't went home with Elia. Elia and her children either went to KL or to Dragonstone.

5. A year after that Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna.

It's just doesn't make any sense, if the scene with Elia, Rhaegar and their newborn son happened after the tournament, after Rhaegar crowned Lyanna. It makes more sense if the crowning happened after the baby was born, and after Rhaegar realised that Aegon is not TPTWP. He chose Lyanna only after he knew that Elia won't be mother of TPTWP.

I think that it's possible that Rhaenys and Aegon wasn't children of Rhaegar. Could be that their father (or at least father of Rhaenys) was Elia's brother Oberyn Martell, and Elia was already pregnant when she was getting married with Rhaegar. That's why they left KL, and hidden at Dragonstone immediately after their wedding. To hide from Rhaegar's parents that his bride is already pregnant from some other man. And could be that it was what meant words of Jon Con:

"A bride for our bright prince. Jon Connington remembered Prince Rhaegar’s wedding all too well. Elia was never worthy of him. She was frail and sickly from the first, and childbirth only left her weaker. After the birth of Princess Rhaenys, her mother had been bedridden for half a year, and Prince Aegon’s birth had almost been the death of her. She would bear no more children, the maesters told Prince Rhaegar afterward."

Maybe Elia wasn't worthy of Rhaegar not because of her weakness, but because she wasn't a maiden. "Jon Connington remembered Prince Rhaegar’s wedding all too well." If it was Jon Con, the person, whom according to 7K's wedding tradition, brought the bride into newlyweds chambers, and undressed her, then Jon and Rhaegar were people that found out about Elia's already visible at that time pregnancy.

Though whatever really happened between Elia and Rhaegar, I don't think that he left her just because she wasn't able to give birth to more children. The way he crowned some other woman, and not his wife, in presence of this wife and hundreds of other people, that was something personal. Seems that Rhaegar had a grudge against Elia, and thus he humiliated her in public, on purpose.

Could be that he was Ok with her first pregnancy, and forgave her for giving birth to some other man's child, because she prommised to him to be faithful from then on. But when later he found out that even her second child isn't his, then he separated from her. If Elia's children were Oberyn's children, then most likely Doran Martell knows about it. So when he and fAegon will meet, he may tell him that his father wasn't Rhaegar Targaryen, and that actually he is a 100% Martell.

I think that this sort of plot twist is a typical GRRM's style.

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So long as this doesn't turn into a hate thread I'm willing to venture a guess here.  Rhaegar seems to have been entirely motivated by prophecy.  The old pact of Fire and Ice may have been part of fulfilling prophecy, but I don't know how familiar Rhaegar was with that unsatisfied agreement.   Assuming Elia could have another child I can't see Rhaegar needing to take another lover.   He and Elia appeared to spend time together and I get the feeling he confided in her from Dany's visions in the HOTU.  

However, there was a need for a 3rd child that surely burned in Rhaegar., possibly Elia for all I know.  In reading your OP I wondered if perhaps Rhaegar wasn't clairvoyant or achieved some much greater understanding of the prophecy after the birth of Aegon.   We see in the vision that Rhaegar tells Elia that baby Aegon's song is that of Ice and Fire.   

We are certainly led to believe that Rhaegar had this burning attraction to Lyanna.   I'm not sure I buy that.   It's more than curious that he took Lyanna to Dorne for safe keeping.  There is more to this story than we know.   I wonder if Rhaegar made any declarations about Lyanna's baby?  

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8 minutes ago, Megorova said:

I think that Elia gave birth to Aegon, before Tournament at Harrenhal. So events, that were in the books, happened in this order:

1. Elia and Aegon married. Shortly after their wedding they left KL and went to live to Dragonstone. Next year Rhaenys was born. After that Elia was bedridden for six months. Then the three of them went to KL, and presented Rhaenys to her grandparents. That's when Aerys said that the girl smells Dornish.

2. Some time later Aegon was born. Scene that Dany saw in one of her visions happened then - the one where Rhaegar said to Elia, that dragon has three heads, and that Aegon is TPTWP, and his is the SOIAF.

3. Then during events at Harrenhal Rhaegar has crowned Lyanna, and he knew that she was Knights of Laughting Tree.

4. After tournament Rhaegar didn't went home with Elia. Elia and her children either went to KL or to Dragonstone.

5. A year after that Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna.

It's just doesn't make any sense, if the scene with Elia, Rhaegar and their newborn son happened after the tournament, after Rhaegar crowned Lyanna. It makes more sense if the crowning happened after the baby was born, and after Rhaegar realised that Aegon is not TPTWP. He chose Lyanna only after he knew that Elia won't be mother of TPTWP.

I think that it's possible that Rhaenys and Aegon wasn't children of Rhaegar. Could be that their father (or at least father of Rhaenys) was Elia's brother Oberyn Martell, and Elia was already pregnant when she was getting married with Rhaegar. That's why they left KL, and hidden at Dragonstone immediately after their wedding. To hide from Rhaegar's parents that his bride is already pregnant from some other man. And could be that it was what meant words of Jon Con:

"A bride for our bright prince. Jon Connington remembered Prince Rhaegar’s wedding all too well. Elia was never worthy of him. She was frail and sickly from the first, and childbirth only left her weaker. After the birth of Princess Rhaenys, her mother had been bedridden for half a year, and Prince Aegon’s birth had almost been the death of her. She would bear no more children, the maesters told Prince Rhaegar afterward."

Maybe Elia wasn't worthy of Rhaegar not because of her weakness, but because she wasn't a maiden. "Jon Connington remembered Prince Rhaegar’s wedding all too well." If it was Jon Con, the person, whom according to 7K's wedding tradition, brought the bride into newlyweds chambers, and undressed her, then Jon and Rhaegar were people that found out about Elia's already visible at that time pregnancy.

Though whatever really happened between Elia and Rhaegar, I don't think that he left her just because she wasn't able to give birth to more children. The way he crowned some other woman, and not his wife, in presence of this wife and hundreds of other people, that was something personal. Seems that Rhaegar had a grudge against Elia, and thus he humiliated her in public, on purpose.

Could be that he was Ok with her first pregnancy, and forgave her for giving birth to some other man's child, because she prommised to him to be faithful from then on. But when later he found out that even her second child isn't his, then he separated from her. If Elia's children were Oberyn's children, then most likely Doran Martell knows about it. So when he and fAegon will meet, he may tell him that his father wasn't Rhaegar Targaryen, and that actually he is a 100% Martell.

I think that this sort of plot twist is a typical GRRM's style.

Just finding you recently.   Your posts are interesting.  I was under the impression that Jon Connington was himself in love with his Silver Prince.   If that is the case, Jon Con's assessments of Elia are clouded at the very least.  I know we don't have a lot to go on where Rhaegar and Elia are concerned.   The sparse information we do have is so incomplete.  It's a wicked trick of our author to give us bad information when we have so little.   Just some food for thought.   

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2 hours ago, Megorova said:

<snip>

"A bride for our bright prince. Jon Connington remembered Prince Rhaegar’s wedding all too well. Elia was never worthy of him. She was frail and sickly from the first, and childbirth only left her weaker. After the birth of Princess Rhaenys, her mother had been bedridden for half a year, and Prince Aegon’s birth had almost been the death of her. She would bear no more children, the maesters told Prince Rhaegar afterward."

Maybe Elia wasn't worthy of Rhaegar not because of her weakness, but because she wasn't a maiden. "Jon Connington remembered Prince Rhaegar’s wedding all too well." If it was Jon Con, the person, whom according to 7K's wedding tradition, brought the bride into newlyweds chambers, and undressed her, then Jon and Rhaegar were people that found out about Elia's already visible at that time pregnancy.

Though whatever really happened between Elia and Rhaegar, I don't think that he left her just because she wasn't able to give birth to more children. The way he crowned some other woman, and not his wife, in presence of this wife and hundreds of other people, that was something personal. Seems that Rhaegar had a grudge against Elia, and thus he humiliated her in public, on purpose.

Could be that he was Ok with her first pregnancy, and forgave her for giving birth to some other man's child, because she prommised to him to be faithful from then on. But when later he found out that even her second child isn't his, then he separated from her. If Elia's children were Oberyn's children, then most likely Doran Martell knows about it. So when he and fAegon will meet, he may tell him that his father wasn't Rhaegar Targaryen, and that actually he is a 100% Martell.

I think that this sort of plot twist is a typical GRRM's style.

Very interesting theory that Rhaenys was another man's child, but I can't quite bring myself to think that Aegon was; although Rhaenys looked every bit like a Martell, Aegon was described as looking every bit like a Targaryen. Unless you'e suggesting Aerys II is his true father, I can't think of any other men.

Rhaenys was also most likely conceived at King's Landing, or before the wedding according to your theory, which makes it possible that Rhaegar was not Rhaenys' father. Although Aegon was conceived at King's Landing, there is no evidence that Oberyn was anywhere near Elia at this time. (Plus he looks Targaryen)

Also, why do you think that of all the men in the Seven Kingdoms that could be Rhaenys' true father, it's Oberyn? Elia was the Crown Princess by marriage and I am certain that plenty of men would've found her attractive enough to want to be with her, so why would she choose her brother, of all men?

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Yes, I expect that if Elia had been able to bear a third child he would have been satisfied.

I don’t doubt that Rhaegar fell in love with Lyanna, but he would have known the implications of what he was going to do. No woman is worth such bloodshed.

But Rhaegar was seemingly obsessed with the prophecy of the ‘Prince that was Promised’. He believed that it was his duty to fulfill the prophecy, he first believed that he was the PTWP, but came to believe that it was his son Aegon.

He also believed that a part of the prophecy was that he should bear three children: “There must be one more,” he said...“The dragon has three heads.”

What he did, I don’t believe he did lightly, he believed that the prophecy was more important than his own life, or Elia’s feelings. However he clearly underestimated the ramifications.

Or he was just more of a horndog than we knew and didn’t care about what would happen.

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6 hours ago, Vaedys Targaryen said:

Very interesting theory that Rhaenys was another man's child, but I can't quite bring myself to think that Aegon was; although Rhaenys looked every bit like a Martell, Aegon was described as looking every bit like a Targaryen. Unless you'e suggesting Aerys II is his true father, I can't think of any other men.

Martells have Valyrian blood - Drazenko Rogare husband of Aliandra Martell, and Daenerys Targaryen wife of Maron Martell.

Drazenko's sister Larra Rogare married with Viserys I Targaryen, Aegon IV was her son.

Maron's younger sister Mariah, married with Daeron II Targaryen, she was great grandmother of Aerys. Mariah was dark-haired and dark-eyed, but out of her four sons (Baelor, Maekar, Aerys I, and Rhaegel) only Baelor was like his Dornish mother.

Which means that Mariah was carrier of Bb alleles.

B - dark hair coloring, b - light hair coloring. B is dominant, b is recessive.

Person with BB allele has dark hair, person with bb has light/blond/silver, and person with Bb has dark hair, but can pass to his/her children b allele of light hair coloring. Same thing with eyes coloring.

Brown > Green > Blue.

Brown is dominant over Green and Blue alleles. So if a person is a carrier of Brown/Green or Brown/Blue alleles, then he/she will have brown eyes, but can have green-eyed or blue-eyed children. Person with Green/Blue alleles will have green eyes, because Green allele is dominant over Blue. Person with Blue/Blue alleles will have blue eyes.

Mariah was carrier of Bb Brown/Blue, her Valyrian husband was carrier of bb Blue/Blue, so Baelor got B and Brown alleles from his mother and b and Blue from his father, and being a carrier of Bb Brown/Blue was dark-haired and dark-eyed. And his brothers got from both parents only b and Blue alleles, and thus had light-colored hair and blue/violet/purple eyes, and were carriers of bb Blue/Blue alleles.

Both Elia and Oberyn, even though they had dark hair and dark eyes, were carriers of Bb alleles for hair coloring, and Brown/Blue alleles for eyes coloring. So the two of them together, or with other partners that are carriers of Bb or bb alleles and Brown/Blue or Green/Blue or Blue/Blue alleles can have children with light hair and blue/violet/purple eyes.

So Elia's blond and blue-eyed son Aegon could be son of either blond and blue-eyed Rhaegar, or son of dark-haired and dark-eyed Oberyn. Because both of those men are carriers of light hair b alleles and blue eyes alleles.

Elia (B1b2 Brown1/Blue2) + Rhaegar (b3b4 Blue3/Blue4) = B1b3 Brown1/Blue3, B1b4 Brown1/Blue4, b2b3 Blue2/Blue3, b2b4 Blue2/Blue4 - possible genetic models of Rhaenys, possible genetic models for Aegon.

B1b3 or B1b4 - dark hair, because B allele is dominant.

Brown1/Blue3 or Brown1/Blue4 - brown eyes, because brown allele is dominant and blue is recessive, so a person that has both alleles will have brown eyes.

b2b3 Blue2/Blue3 or b2b4 Blue2/Blue4 - light hair and blue eyes.

Now with Oberyn:

Elia (B1b2 Brown1/Blue2) + Oberyn (B5b6 Brown2/Blue5) = B1B5 Brown1/Brown2, B1b6 Brown1/Blue5, b2B5 Blue2/Brown2, b2b6 Blue2/Blue5 - 25% possibility for Elia's and Oberyn's child to have blond hair and blue eyes, even though both parents are dark-haired and dark-eyed.

The fact that Elia gave birth to light-haired and blue-eyed Aegon, proves that she was carrier of b and Blue alleles. And Oberyn too was Bb Brown/Blue, because he also had blonde and blue-eyed daughter - Tyene Sand.

 

Lots of speculations:

Spoiler

Rhaegar and Elia married in 280. Their daughter was born also in 280 at Dragonstone. For six months after that Elia was supposedly bedridden. So they presented Rhaenys to King and Queen in the end of first quarter of 281, or in the middle of 281. I think that Elia became pregnant several months prior her wedding. So they married in early 280, and she gave birth to her first child not in late 280, but in the middle of 280, and her daughter Rhaenys actually was several months older than her official date of birth. And additional six months were needed to conceal inconsistence between Rhaenys' looks and her official age. Because you can't show to people a several months old baby, and lie to them that it's a newborn. Though it's much easier to show to people a 9 or even 12 months old baby, and tell them that it's a 6 months old baby. Difference between a 6 and 9 months old babyes is not as significant, as between a newborn baby and the baby that is already several months old.

Also in 281 both Rhaegar and Oberyn participated in Tournament at Storm's End.

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Tourney_at_Storm's_End

According to calculation from ASOIAF Wikia, that Tournament happened between 278 and 281. But I'm absolutely sure, for various reasons, that it happened in 281.

One of participants was Simon Toyne. He was killed in 281, some time after that Tournament. He and his gang targeted Elia Martell, when she was traveling thru Kingswood. During that encounter one of Kingswood Brotherhood members, Ulmer, that is currently serving at The Wall, has wounded Gerold Hightower. He also had stolen Elia's jewels, and a chest of golden dragons. After that for brief time the Kingsguards were led by Arthur Dayne. Barristan Selmy killed Simon, and Arthur killed leader of that gang - Smiling Knight.

There are only two possibilities when Elia could have traveled thru Kingswood - 1. on her way from Dorne to King's Landing, going to her wedding, in 280, or 2. after Tournament at Storm's End in 281, or going to that Tournament. Though it's highly unlikely that some gang attacked fiancee of Crown Prince, and they weren't all killed shortly after that. So it's not likely that Elia's encounter with Kingswood Brotherhood happened prior her wedding, in early 280. And after her wedding, that took place in King's Landing, she and Rhaegar went to Dragonstone. They returned to King's Landing only in the middle of 281, or in first quarter of 281. So she was attacked some time after she presented her daughter to King and Queen. So what was she doing in 281, in the middle of Kingswood? The only logical explanation is that she was going back to King's Landing, after her husband Rhaegar and her brother Oberyn, participated in that Tournament at Storm's End. And she also was present there. Or she had that encounter on her way from King's Landing to Storm's End, to attend that Tournament.

"The information about this tourney is problematic because some details in A Storm of Swords conflict. In response, George R. R. Martin suggested that the outlaw Simon Toyne was already dead by this time and the elderly Ser Barristan misremembered.[15] "

So could be that Elia was attacked by Simon Toyne not when she was getting back from Tournament, but when she was going there from King's Landing. And Simon didn't participated in that Tournament, he was killed before that, after his encounter with Elia, that was escorted to Tournament by several members of Kingsguards. And during that confrontation Gerold Hightower was wounded, so Barristan Selmy participated in Tournament instead of him, and won it.

That Tournament at Storm's End couldn't have happened in 278, or 279, or even 280. The only possible time frame for it is early 281, or first half of 281, after Elia and Rhaegar presented Rhaenys to her grandparents, after Tournament at Storm's End but prior Tournament at Harrenhal, that happened in late 281.

Nearly entire year of 280, Rhaegar and Elia has spent at Dragonstone. Prior that Oberyn was in exile in Oldtown, forging his chain, and later in Lys. Though bethrodal between Elia and Rhaegar was decided in early 279. So probably after getting news about it, Oberyn left Essos and went back to Dorne, in middle or late 279. That's when their first child was conceived, several months prior Elia's wedding.

Also most likely that from Dorne and to her wedding at King's Landing, Elia and her family went by the sea route, on a ship, and not by land. So prior her marriage Elia never went thru Kingswood. Also why would Gerold Hightower, Lord Commander of Kingsguards, was escorting Elia Martell, during that encounter with Kingswood Brotherhood, unless she was already wife of Crown Prince?

It doesn't matter whether Simon Toyne participated in that Tournament, or whether he didn't. What matters is that this Tournament could have happened only after wedding of Elia and Rhaegar. Gerold Hightower didn't participated in that Tournament, because he was wounded by Ulmer from Kingswood Brotherhood, when Gerold was escorting Elia. Prior her wedding there was no reason for Elia to travel thru those lands, and no reason for Lord Commander of Kingsguards to escort her. So encounter between them happened when Elia was already married with Rhaegar. Though immediately after her wedding, she and her husband left to Dragonstone, and returned only in 281. And the only reason for Elia to be in the middle of Kingswood, in 281, is to attend that Tournament at Storm's End. And both her husband Rhaegar, and her brother Oberyn, participated in that Tournament.

"“No one ever looked for a girl,” he said. “It was a prince that was promised, not a princess. Rhaegar, I thought . . . the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King’s Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet."

Rhaegar told maester Aemon that on the night when Aegon was conceived, a comet had been seen above King's Landing. But what if some time after Aegon was born, Rhaegar found out that Aegon is not his son, and that he was conceived not on that night in King's Landing, but shortly prior that at Storm's End, where Elia had encounter with her brother Oberyn, that was there because of his participation in Tournament.

And Rhaegar found out about that, during Tournament at Harrenhal, on that night when Oberyn was dancing with Ashara Dayne. On that night Rhaegar found out about Elia's infidelity, and that Knight of the Laughing Tree is Lyanna Stark. So he crowned Lyanna to spite Elia for her betrayal, and after that he has sent Elia and her children away from him.

If Aegon's father is Oberyn Martell, and Aegon was born in late 281, then he was conceived at Tournament at Storm's End; if he was born in 282, then he was conceived during Tournament at Harrenhal. Oberyn was near Elia at both of those events.

Could be that Ashara Dayne saw Elia and Oberyn, and to make her keep quiet about what she saw, Elia has sent her away from court. Or even spread rumors about her, and that's how Ashara was dishonored at Harrenhal. In that vision, that Dany saw, shortly after Aegon's birth, Rhaegar thought that Aegon is his son. But what if after that, Ashara did told Rhaegar about what she saw at Harrenhal, she passed this information thru her brother Arthur Dayne. So after Rhaegar found out that the son isn't his, same as daughter, then he and Arthur went after Lyanna. Probably there was a reason why Rhaegar thought that she could be mother of TPTWP. Though he was disregarding all those signs, until the moment he found out that Elia's son is definitely not TPTWP. So he realised that all those signs were correct, and that he should pursue Lyanna. That's why he acted so rashly, with kidnapping her and so on. He wasn't entirely sane at that moment, because he just found out that his son isn't his, and that his wife is an incestuous whore, that has born two children whose father is her own brother.

So as I said - lots of speculations. Though there are also facts:

1. Oberyn Martell has a blonde and blue-eyed daughter. Which means that theoretically he can be father of light-haired and blue-eyed Aegon. Tyene Sand is a hint from GRRM.

2. Oberyn Martell was near Elia both times when she became pregnant, prior her wedding, and prior both possible dates of conceivement of her second child.

3. Rhaegar has left his wife and children.

4. ASOS, Tyrion IV:

Quote

“You were close to your sister?”

“As children Elia and I were inseparable, much like your own brother and sister.”

Gods, I hope not.

At that time there were already rumors all over 7K, about incest between Cersei and Jaime, and that her children are also his children. Oberyn knew it, Tyrion knew it, readers knew it, but still GRRM has chosen this precise words for Oberyn to describe his relationship with Elia - "like your own brother and sister". Cersei and Jaime had an incestuous affair, behind back of Cersei's husband, and her brother was father of all of her children. So could be that this is also a hint from GRRM, that indicates that Oberyn and Elia had the same sort of relationship as Cersei and Jaime, and that all of Elia's children, same as Cersei's children, were fruits of incest.

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1 hour ago, Megorova said:

Martells have Valyrian blood - Drazenko Rogare husband of Aliandra Martell, and Daenerys Targaryen wife of Maron Martell.

Drazenko's sister Larra Rogare married with Viserys I Targaryen, Aegon IV was her son.

Maron's younger sister Mariah, married with Daeron II Targaryen, she was great grandmother of Aerys. Mariah was dark-haired and dark-eyed, but out of her four sons (Baelor, Maekar, Aerys I, and Rhaegel) only Baelor was like his Dornish mother.

Which means that Mariah was carrier of Bb alleles.

B - dark hair coloring, b - light hair coloring. B is dominant, b is recessive.

Person with BB allele has dark hair, person with bb has light/blond/silver, and person with Bb has dark hair, but can pass to his/her children b allele of light hair coloring. Same thing with eyes coloring.

Brown > Green > Blue.

Brown is dominant over Green and Blue alleles. So if a person is a carrier of Brown/Green or Brown/Blue alleles, then he/she will have brown eyes, but can have green-eyed or blue-eyed children. Person with Green/Blue alleles will have green eyes, because Green allele is dominant over Blue. Person with Blue/Blue alleles will have blue eyes.

Mariah was carrier of Bb Brown/Blue, her Valyrian husband was carrier of bb Blue/Blue, so Baelor got B and Brown alleles from his mother and b and Blue from his father, and being a carrier of Bb Brown/Blue was dark-haired and dark-eyed. And his brothers got from both parents only b and Blue alleles, and thus had light-colored hair and blue/violet/purple eyes, and were carriers of bb Blue/Blue alleles.

Both Elia and Oberyn, even though they had dark hair and dark eyes, were carriers of Bb alleles for hair coloring, and Brown/Blue alleles for eyes coloring. So the two of them together, or with other partners that are carriers of Bb or bb alleles and Brown/Blue or Green/Blue or Blue/Blue alleles can have children with light hair and blue/violet/purple eyes.

So Elia's blond and blue-eyed son Aegon could be son of either blond and blue-eyed Rhaegar, or son of dark-haired and dark-eyed Oberyn. Because both of those men are carriers of light hair b alleles and blue eyes alleles.

Elia (B1b2 Brown1/Blue2) + Rhaegar (b3b4 Blue3/Blue4) = B1b3 Brown1/Blue3, B1b4 Brown1/Blue4, b2b3 Blue2/Blue3, b2b4 Blue2/Blue4 - possible genetic models of Rhaenys, possible genetic models for Aegon.

B1b3 or B1b4 - dark hair, because B allele is dominant.

Brown1/Blue3 or Brown1/Blue4 - brown eyes, because brown allele is dominant and blue is recessive, so a person that has both alleles will have brown eyes.

b2b3 Blue2/Blue3 or b2b4 Blue2/Blue4 - light hair and blue eyes.

Now with Oberyn:

Elia (B1b2 Brown1/Blue2) + Oberyn (B5b6 Brown2/Blue5) = B1B5 Brown1/Brown2, B1b6 Brown1/Blue5, b2B5 Blue2/Brown2, b2b6 Blue2/Blue5 - 25% possibility for Elia's and Oberyn's child to have blond hair and blue eyes, even though both parents are dark-haired and dark-eyed.

The fact that Elia gave birth to light-haired and blue-eyed Aegon, proves that she was carrier of b and Blue alleles. And Oberyn too was Bb Brown/Blue, because he also had blond and blue-eyed daughter - Tyene Sand.

 

Lots of speculations:

  Reveal hidden contents

Rhaegar and Elia married in 280. Their daughter was born also in 280 at Dragonstone. For six months after that Elia was supposedly bedridden. So they presented Rhaenys to King and Queen in the end of first quarter of 281, or in the middle of 281. I think that Elia became pregnant several months prior her wedding. So they married in early 280, and she gave birth to her first child not in late 280, but in the middle of 280, and her daughter Rhaenys actually was several months older than her oficial date of birth. And additional six months were needed to conceal inconsistence between Rhaenys' looks and her official age. Because you can't show to people a several months old baby, and lie to them that it's a newborn. Though it's much easier to show to people a 9 or even 12 months old baby, and tell them that it's a 6 months old baby. Difference between a 6 and 9 months old babyes is not as significant, as between a newborn baby and the baby that is already several months old.

Also in 281 both Rhaegar and Oberyn participated in Tournament at Storm's End.

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Tourney_at_Storm's_End

According to calculation from ASOIAF Wikia, that Tournament happened between 278 and 281. But I'm absolutely sure, for various reasons, that it happened in 281.

One of participants was Simon Toyne. He was killed in 281, some time after that Tournament. He and his gang targeted Elia Martell, when she was traveling thru Kingswood. During that encounter one of Kingswood Brotherhood members, Ulmer, that is currently serving at The Wall, has wounded Gerold Hightower. He also had stolen Elia's jewels, and a chest of golden dragons. After that for brief time the Kingsguards were led by Arthur Dayne. Barristan Selmy killed Simon, and Arthur killed leader of that gang - Smiling Knight.

There are only two possibilities when Elia could have traveled thru Kingswood - 1. on her way from Dorne to King's Landing, going to her wedding, in 280, or 2. after Tournament at Storm's End in 281, or going to that Tournament. Though it's highly unlikely that some gang attacked fiancee of Crown Prince, and they weren't all killed shortly after that. So it's not likely that Elia's encounter with Kingswood Brotherhood happened prior her wedding, in early 280. And after her wedding, that took place in King's Landing, she and Rhaegar went to Dragonstone. They returned to King's Landing only in the middle of 281, or in first quarter of 281. So she was attacked some time after she presented her daughter to King and Queen. So what was she doing in 281, in the middle of Kingswood? The only logical explanation is that she was going back to King's Landing, after her husband Rhaegar and her brother Oberyn, participated in that Tournament at Storm's End. And she also was present there. Or she had that encounter on her way from King's Landing to Storm's End, to attend that Tournament.

"The information about this tourney is problematic because some details in A Storm of Swords conflict. In response, George R. R. Martin suggested that the outlaw Simon Toyne was already dead by this time and the elderly Ser Barristan misremembered.[15] "

So could be that Elia was attacked by Simon Toyne not when she was getting back from Tournament, but when she was going there from King's Landing. And Simon didn't participated in that Tournament, he was killed before that, after his encounter with Elia, that was escorted to Tournament by several members of Kingsguards. And during that confrontation Gerold Hightower was wounded, so Barristan Selmy participated in Tournament instead of him, and won it.

That Tournament at Storm's End couldn't have happened in 278, or 279, or even 280. The only possible time frame for it is early 281, or first half of 281, after Elia and Rhaegar presented Rhaenys to her grandparents, after Tournament at Storm's End but prior Tournament at Harrenhal, that happened in late 281.

Nearly entire year of 280, Rhaegar and Elia has spent at Dragonstone. Prior that Oberyn was in exile in Oldtown, forging his chain, and later in Lys. Though bethrodal between Elia and Rhaegar was decided in early 279. So probably after getting news about it, Oberyn left Essos and went back to Dorne, in middle or late 279. That's when their first child was conceived, several months prior Elia's wedding.

Also most likely that from Dorne and to her wedding at King's Landing, Elia and her family went by the sea route, on a ship, and not by land. So prior her marriage Elia never went thru Kingswood. Also why would Gerold Hightower, Lord Commander of Kingsguards, was escorting Elia Martell, during that encounter with Kingswood Brotherhood, unless she was already wife of Crown Prince?

It doesn't matter whether Simon Toyne participated in that Tournament, or whether he didn't. What matters is that this Tournament could have happened only after wedding of Elia and Rhaegar. Gerold Hightower didn't participated in that Tournament, because he was wounded by Ulmer from Kingswood Brotherhood, when Gerold was escorting Elia. Prior her wedding there was no reason for Elia to travel thru those lands, and no reason for Lord Commander of Kingsguards to escort her. So encounter between them happened when Elia was already married with Rhaegar. Though immediately after her wedding, she and her husband left to Dragonstone, and returned only in 281. And the only reason for Elia to be in the middle of Kingswood, in 281, is to attend that Tournament at Storm's End. And both her husband Rhaegar, and her brother Oberyn, participated in that Tournament.

"“No one ever looked for a girl,” he said. “It was a prince that was promised, not a princess. Rhaegar, I thought . . . the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King’s Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet."

Rhaegar told maester Aemon that on the night when Aegon was conceived, a comet had been seen above King's Landing. But what if some time after Aegon was born, Rhaegar found out that Aegon is not his son, and that he was conceived not on that night in King's Landing, but shortly prior that at Storm's End, where Elia had encounter with her brother Oberyn, that was there because of his participation in Tournament.

And Rhaegar found out about that, during Tournament at Harrenhal, on that night when Oberyn was dancing with Ashara Dayne. On that night Rhaegar found out about Elia's infidelity, and that Knight of the Laughing Tree is Lyanna Stark. So he crowned Lyanna to spite Elia for her betrayal, and after that he has sent Elia and her children away from him.

If Aegon's father is Oberyn Martell, and Aegon was born in late 281, then he was conceived at Tournament at Storm's End; if he was born in 282, then he was conceived during Tournament at Harrenhal. Oberyn was near Elia at both of those events.

Could be that Ashara Dayne saw Elia and Oberyn, and to make her keep quiet about what she saw, Elia has sent her away from court. Or even spread rumors about her, and that's how Ashara was dishonored at Harrenhal. In that vision, that Dany saw, shortly after Aegon's birth, Rhaegar thought that Aegon is his son. But what if after that, Ashara did told Rhaegar about what she saw at Harrenhal, she passed this information thru her brother Arthur Dayne. So after Rhaegar found out that the son isn't his, same as daughter, then he and Arthur went after Lyanna. Probably there was a reason why Rhaegar thought that she could be mother of TPTWP. Though he was disregarding all those signs, until the moment he found out that Elia's son is definitely not TPTWP. So he realised that all those signt were correct, and that he should pursue Lyanna. That's why he acted so rashly, with kidnapping her and so on. He wasn't entirely sane at that moment, because he just found out that his son isn't his, and that his wife is an incestuous whore, that has born two children whose father is her own brother.

So as I said - lots of speculations. Though there are also facts:

1. Oberyn Martell has a blonde and blue-eyed daughter. Which means that theoretically he can be father of light-haired and blue-eyed Aegon. Tyene Sand is a hint from GRRM.

2. Oberyn Martell was near Elia both times when she became pregnant, prior her wedding, and prior both possible dates of conceivement of her second child.

3. Rhaegar has left his wife and children.

4. ASOS, Tyrion IV:

At that time there were already rumors all over 7K, about incest between Cersei and Jaime, and that her children are also his children. Oberyn knew it, Tyrion knew it, readers knew it, but still GRRM has chosen this precise words for Oberyn to describe his relationship with Elia - "like your own brother and sister". Cersei and Jaime had an incestuous affair, behind back of Cersei's husband, and her brother was father of all of her children. So could be that this is also a hint from GRRM, that indicates that Oberyn and Elia had the same sort of relationship as Cersei and Jaime, and that all of Elia's children, same as Cersei's children, were fruits of incest.

You've just given me valuable information about this theory. I shall consider it thoroughly.

Edit: Oh my gosh, I just now realised that Elia and Ellaria are very similar: They both range from beautiful to kind of plain looking, depending on what character is talking, they're both said to be gentle and good women and their names eerily resemble one another.

Considering that their daughter, Elia Sand, was born in 285AC, and Elia Martell was killed in 283AC, that means that Oberyn met Ellaria shortly after Elia's death. Did Oberyn choose Ellaria very specifically because she is very similar to Elia, kind of like how Cersei settled to have Lancel in her bed because he looked a bit like Jaime?

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16 hours ago, Vaedys Targaryen said:

Edit: Oh my gosh, I just now realised that Elia and Ellaria are very similar: They both range from beautiful to kind of plain looking, depending on what character is talking, they're both said to be gentle and good women and their names eerily resemble one another.

Considering that their daughter, Elia Sand, was born in 285AC, and Elia Martell was killed in 283AC, that means that Oberyn met Ellaria shortly after Elia's death. Did Oberyn choose Ellaria very specifically because she is very similar to Elia, kind of like how Cersei settled to have Lancel in her bed because he looked a bit like Jaime?

I also noticed those similarities between Elia and Ellaria.

Add to that that out of all of his lovers (males and females), Oberyn is keeping close to himself only Ellaria, all others he ditched after having fun with them.

Also GRRM likes to sort of repeat events in his books.

ADWTD, Tyrion II:

Quote

Viserys lusted for his father’s throne, but he lusted for Daenerys too, and was loath to give her up. The night before the princess wed he tried to steal into her bed, insisting that if he could not have her hand, he would claim her maidenhead. Had I not taken the precaution of posting guards upon her door, Viserys might have undone years of planning.

Could be that in what Viserys failed to do, Oberyn was more succesful. And unlike in mansion of Illyrio, people at Martell's household didn't suspected, that they should guard Elia from her brother, until she will go to King's Landing.

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1 hour ago, Megorova said:

I also noticed those similarities between Elia and Ellaria.

Add to that that out of all of his lovers (males and females), Oberyn is keeping close to himself only Ellaria, all others he ditched after having fun with them.

Also GRRM likes to sort of repeat events in his books.

ADWTD, Tyrion II:

Could be that in what Viserys failed to do, Oberyn was more succesful. And unlike in mansion of Illyrio, people at Martell's household didn't suspected, that they should guard Elia from her brother, until she will go to King's Landing.

ASoIaF: Incest. Incest Everywhere.

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On 02/01/2018 at 3:48 PM, Megorova said:

The way he crowned some other woman, and not his wife, in presence of this wife and hundreds of other people, that was something personal. Seems that Rhaegar had a grudge against Elia, and thus he humiliated her in public, on purpose.

He doesn't need to have a grudge against her to do that.

I think you missed the point here, you mention the fact that Elia was his "wife", but this was a political marriage. For Rhaegar, Elia was duty, not a wife, that's how Barristan described it. Rhaegar was very fond of her, and that's all. He married her as he had been told to do, he had children with her to cement the alliance with her house. Rhaegar had nothing against her, he was just doing his duty, it was just business, and it seems he wasn't able to grow any romatic feelings towards her, which is something i don't blame him for.

The lack of romantic feelings towards Elia means they were not as close as Ned and Cat for example. This made Rhaegar notice Lyanna much more easily, and in the end, there wasn't much holding him from crowning Lyanna. Elia was only duty after all, and by now we should know: what is duty and honor against love? nothing really.

What makes it all the more complicated is the prophecy. George makes it seems as if Rhaegar left Elia because she couldn't have more children, while Maester Aemon points towards something different.

On 02/01/2018 at 3:48 PM, Megorova said:

I think that Elia gave birth to Aegon, before Tournament at Harrenhal

Impossible, on TWOIAF they made it clear that Rhaegar left Elia not long after she gave birth to Aegon, as he is metioned as their "young son". The tourney happened before Aegon was born, that much is clear.

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She grew up constantly battling illnesses. She travels all the way to Castery Rock to meet Jaime only for Tywin to reject that betrothal idea and offer baby Tyrion instead. She becomes a woman and things improve and she even gets to marry the beautiful Crown Prince. She barely survives giving birth to Rhaenys only for her father in law to mock her babe saying it smells. Her husband goes to great physical lengths to win a tourney only to Crown some other girl QoLaB. She finally gives birth to healthy heir even though it almost kills her, her husband finally seems pleased because he knows a song for baby Aegon. Perhaps she thinks at that point things are finally starting to look up, for good this time? Then her husband leaves her with her crazy father in law then the most brutal human in the universe rapes her with her dead babe's brains still on him. Then she dies after that final painful physical humiliation. 

Elia Martell's life is one of the most depressing arcs a noble born princess can have in this universe. Every good thing that happens to her is followed by something terrible.

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2 hours ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

She barely survives giving birth to Rhaenys only for her father in law to mock her babe saying it smells.

Actually, this was said to Rhaegar, not Elia. It was Rhaegar who presented the girl at court, the first time he went back to the Red Keep after his marriage, and Aerys was hungry, hungry to take a dig at Rhaegar, he was very suspicious of him by that point. The comment was made to mess with Rhaegar, Elia likely never knew that such comment was made, she was bedridden in Dragonstone.

2 hours ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

Then her husband leaves her with her crazy father in law

TWOIAF states that Rhaegar left Elia and their children at Dragonstone, far from Aerys. Aerys took her as a hostage only after the war started. And a brutal civil war couldn't have been foreseen so easily.

2 hours ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

Elia Martell's life is one of the most depressing arcs a noble born princess can have in this universe. Every good thing that happens to her is followed by something terrible.

I fully agree, but i can see the grayness in her marriage though, i try to understand it from Rhaegar's perspective as well. There are things that, while not Elia's fault at all, made it more than a little hard for her to succeed in her marriage.

Elia married Rhaegar at very complicated moment in his life, he had his father against him, his friends constantly pressuring him to do something, and all the burden that was brought on him by his birth and subsequently the prophecies.

Then comes Elia, a kind and gentle woman, but very delicate with a very fragile health. I have no doubt Rhaegar took care of her while they were married, but that's the problem. For a guy who had way too much on his shoulders already, he now had found himself married to a woman he barely knew, and she was a person that needed constant care. I can understand why Rhaegar couldn't find as much joy as he would have wanted while married to Elia.

If he had less responsibilities, less pressure on himself and subsequently on his own life, who knows, things might have happened differently, but that's a long shot.

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2 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

I don't know if anyone has ever read Jon I and Bran II in Game with Meera's Harrenhal story in the back of their minds, but it makes for something really interesting and I think there are answers to some of the questions in these two chapters.

Very very interesting, i hadn't done this before. I was able to spot a few things that was rather funny actually.

"Next had come King Robert himself, with Lady Stark on his arm. The king was a great disappointment to Jon. His father had talked of him often: the peerless Robert Baratheon, demon of the Trident, the fiercest warrior of the realm, a giant among princes. Jon saw only a fat man, red-faced under his beard, sweating through his silks. He walked like a man half in his cups."

Lyanna's son dissapointment after seeing Robert for the first time, even after Ned had made him look like the best men to ever be born in his imagination, as he once did with Lyanna as well. In the end, Robert was doing what he does best, he was drinking a lot, just like he did in Harrenhal. Not a quality a man who is considered "a giant among princes" should have.

"Close behind came Robb, in grey wool trimmed with white, the Stark colors. He had the Princess Myrcella on his arm. She was a wisp of a girl, not quite eight, her hair a cascade of golden curls under a jeweled net. Jon noticed the shy looks she gave Robb as they passed between the tables and the timid way she smiled at him. He decided she was insipid. Robb didn’t even have the sense to realize how stupid she was; he was grinning like a fool."

This was the highlight for me: Robb, just like Rhaegar, breaks his word and go after another woman. While Jon calls Myrcella inspid, just like Cersei called Lyanna inspid. But we know by now that Myrcella is the best and smartest of Cersei's children, while Lyanna was able to realise what Robert Baratheon was when she was merely 12-13, and Ned was only able to see what Robert was in his middle thirties. Both girls were smart.

 

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Personally, based on what we know of Rhaegar, I see no reason why he wouldn't have continued to have children with Elia if she could have given him more children. Of course, this is assuming Dany's vision can be remotely relied on as an accurate vision of the past and all he needed was another child. We don't know whether there was more to his selection of Lyanna had more to do with the prophecy than just wanting more kids. We can argue that she's the ice to his fire but we don't know for certain if that was going through his mind when he nabbed her. If there is one thing Aemon's story made clear it was that Rhaegar could change his mind on how to fulfil prophecy.

Honestly, if Dany's vision is somewhat accurate and Rhaegar had discussed needing "one more" with Elia, it would be interesting if she was in on his plot to take Lyanna and get this third head. Imagine if she was as obsessed with the prophecy as he was. 

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I'm not the biggest fan of the "what if . . ." questions because the story happened as it happened, and I don't think Rhaegar was as consumed with prophecy as the fandom wants him to be. I'll just go with what I think might have happened with the things that we know.

That said, I think the marriage was as good as done by the time Harrenhal came around. 

It just seems to me as though Elia is not expected to survive childbirth. Jaime says (Jaime II, ASOS 11) that Tywin brought Cersei to King's Landing when she was 12, because he was either waiting for Viserys to mature or for Elia to died in child bed. So Tywin had not really given up on the notion of having Cersei become a royal princess. And if he's expecting Elia to die giving birth, then who knows how many people are expecting that, Elia and Rhaegar included in those numbers, I'm assuming.

So Elia survives giving birth to Rhaenys, but she is bedridden for 6 months. The question is what did the maesters tell her after that? Did they tell her that the next pregnancy can leave her barren, or worse, kill her? If they told her that, then that's exactly what happened. She almost died giving birth to Aegon and she can't have anymore children. If they warned her beforehand, then both she and Rhaegar knew what to expect, which makes the situation even more unfair to Elia. But then, I think that the Princess of Dorne marrying her daughter for politics and letting her sons do as they pleased is pretty unfair as well.

In any case, I think Elia's condition would have made it a lot easier for the High Septon to allow Rhaegar a second marriage. 

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4 hours ago, Faera said:

Honestly, if Dany's vision is somewhat accurate and Rhaegar had discussed needing "one more" with Elia, it would be interesting if she was in on his plot to take Lyanna and get this third head.

I find it very unlikely that Elia had a hand on it. If Rhaegar had used Lyanna only to have a third child, i think she would have found out eventually, and so would Ned when he found her.

That Ned has no deep animosity towards Rhaegar, even going as far to consider whether he visited brothels or not, speaks of the fact that Rhaegar and Lyanna were indeed married. "Robert will never keep to one bed" and "Did Rhaegar visited brothels?" are all pretty straightforward quotes.

If Rhaegar married Lyanna, then he wanted more than a third child. This makes me think about various different scenarios. If Elia had given him a third child, would he kept married to her? if Elia proved capable of having another kid, that means Rhaegar would have needed to stay with her a little longer. After giving birth to Aegon she certainly needed time to rest, but after getting pregnant again and eventually giving birth, Rhaegar would have needed to stay with her for at least a year to get his third child. That gives time enough for them to rekindle or rather create the relationship they probably never had and that Elia probably wanted. With Elia aware of Rhaegar's affections for Lyanna, she would probably try to do something about it if she had more time.

 

4 hours ago, Faera said:

Imagine if she was as obsessed with the prophecy as he was. 

If she was, George should have given us some clues, but he didn't. I also don't see Rhaegar as being "obsessed" with prophecy. Obsessed is the word we use for someone who loves something much more than they should, but Rhaegar didn't love prophecy, prophecy only brought sadness to him. His relationship with prophecy looks like someone trying to freed himself from a death sentence they did nothing to deserve.

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12 hours ago, theMADdestScientist_ said:

What makes it all the more complicated is the prophecy. George makes it seems as if Rhaegar left Elia because she couldn't have more children, while Maester Aemon points towards something different.

Unpopular opinion: I don't think the writing suggests Rhaegar went after Lyanna because Elia couldn't have more children, at all. The only thing that links R+L and Elia's poor health is the vision Dany sees, where vision!Rhaegar says "there must be one more". As I've said before, though, some of the things Dany sees in the HOTU are visions, not actual events. The fact that vision!Rhaegar looked straight at Dany as he was talking about the prophecy shows that, that scene was the former. There is far more evidence that R+L was a love affair.

In any case, I see no reason why Elia still being able to have more children would prevent him from straying. It's not like people with children have never had affairs before. Heck, some people do it while pregnant/while their partner is pregnant.

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