Littlefinger and Tycho Nestoris: A Plot to Win the North

[hedebyhedge]

This is a copy of a theory I posted on r/asoiaf, but I thought you guys might want to read for interest.

In this theory, I will try to prove that Petyr Baelish and the Iron Bank are in concert, with the key goal being to obtain the North. This will happen with Nestoris helping Stannis defeat the Boltons and Freys, but then turning back on him, through the aggregation of debt on Stannis’s part. As Stannis will have no means of paying back the Iron Bank, the Bank will subdue Stannis, and implement Littlefinger as their ruler. The theory can be summarized with these three points.

1. Littlefinger and Tycho Nestoris are extremely similar in nature, both being Braavosi and intimately connected to finance, as well as using debt to gain leverage over others. In fact, both may have been working together from the first book.
2. Tycho Nestoris believing that Stannis can both win the Seven Kingdoms AND pay back his own debts and the Iron Throne’s is ridiculously unlikely, and thus is using him. After Stannis obtains the North, Stannis will not be able to pay the Iron Bank, and so the Iron Bank will have its due.
3. Littlefinger essentially has control of the Vale and the Riverlands. He desires the North, and with Iron Bank’s helping Stannis gain it, Littlefinger will be installed as the Iron Bank’s crony in the North, further solidifying his control and power.

Subjugation through Debt

“The Crown is more than six million gold pieces in debt.” - Eddard IV, AGOT

Littlefinger has placed the crown in debt, 6 million dragons to be precise. He’s bribed people in king’s landing, wasted money on Robert’s excesses, and has left the crown insolvent. In fact, this is BEFORE the War of the Five Kings really came into fruition.

“There’s a moneylender from Braavos… to see the king about payment on some loan.” “Send the man to Littlefinger” (Tyrion IV, ACOK)

Littlefinger knows the Iron Bank will try to collect debts. Baelish’s schemes allow the Iron Bank to gain an immense amount of leverage over the Iron Throne. Because of this, it seems just as likely that the Iron Bank would help Littlefinger for their goals. They’re both master Braavosi financiers, and it is pretty much shown Iron Bank knows who Baelish is.

We furthermore see evidence that the Iron Bank is subduing various houses throughout the story. We know from AFFC that the Iron Bank was calling in in its loans all over Westeros.

“[Cersei] has the Faith arming and the Braavosi calling in loans all over Westeros.” (Jaime V)

A group of merchants appeared before her to beg the throne to intercede for them with the Iron Bank of Braavos. The Braavosi were demanding repayment of their outstanding debts, it seemed, and refusing all new loans. (Cersei VIII)

Now, many people seem to accept the Iron Bank as loyal to Stannis, as Cersei refuses to pay the Braavosi back their loans. However, as I will point out, neither the Iron Throne or Stannis have the capabilities to pay back their debts.

I suspect Baelish and Nestoris are working together, as their cooperation creates a win-win situation. The Iron Bank gains control over kingdoms through debt, and Littlefinger can be installed as the Iron Bank’s accomplice in Westeros as a result.

Weaknesses of Stannis’s Campaign in the North

I’ve always found Tycho Nestoris extremely enigmatic, and wondered why more people don’t look into his ulterior motivations. Do that many people really accept that he’s loyal to Stannis? We already know the Iron Bank is treacherous by nature. Out of all people in the world, does it not seem strange that a Braavosi banker shows up in the North and is willing to put faith into a king, whose chances of succeeding are extremely capricious?

1) Stannis – not the best with money.

Sorry Stannis fans, for all Stannis’s admirable qualities, he’s probably just as bad with money as the Iron Throne.

The key weakness of Stannis is his notion of blood-right and nobility. He has viewed his right to be king undeniable, causing him to ignore many of the problems with finances. We see this throughout the text.

One of the first things to indicate this is that Stannis fails to pay Salladhor Saan, and thinks of capturing House Celtigar’s castle to regain solvency, showing he’s unlikely to be financially stable for his future schemes.

The Iron Bank essentially has control with three different payments Stannis has to pay back.

1) The Iron Throne’s debts 2) His wartime debts (food for his troops, the Night’s watch) 3) His debts to gain a sellsword company in Essos

It is the first and third I want to talk about. If the crown, who control agriculture, gold mines, and tax revenue can’t pay the Iron Bank back, there’s no way in hell that Stannis, whose essentially bankrupt can.

But perhaps one of Stannis’s craziest ideas was to hire Justin Massey to go to Braavos to hire 20,000 sellswords with a loan he’s received from the Bank. This. Is. Insane. The size of the Golden Company, perhaps one of the largest, is half this size, of only 10,000. Assuming Stannis has decided to pay the maximum amount of sellswords he can get, he’s not thinking financially at all. Assuming these troops even make it, the dangers involved with them are extreme. They may die or turn sides.

Point being, there is no way for Stannis to pay back the Iron Bank. He does not have any money to begin with, and really there is no reason why Tycho Nestoris would think Stannis could even possibly pay back the huge amount of debts he owes him.

2) Stannis – unlikely to win the Seven Kingdoms

Stannis may conquer the North. However, no one seems to have thought of his plans after that. In fact, the idea that Stannis is going to conquer all of the Seven Kingdoms (which is what the Iron Bank supposedly wants) is extremely unlikely.

To the direct South, he has the Riverlands. The first has all sorts of madness, from the Freys to the BWB/Stoneheart and further is controlled by Littlefinger, as is the Vale right next to it. In the Reach, Stormlands, and Crownlands, we have even more madness, with the Lannisters, Tyrells, Faith Militant, Young Griff, Euron, and an upcoming Daenerys. Not to mention all the chaos in Dorne.

Just a meta-textual analysis of this mess shows there’s no way Stannis’s story is going to involve all seven kingdoms. There’s simply too many players, and not enough chapters for all of these events to occur.

So what’s going to happen?

I suspect that Stannis will win the Battle of Ice. In the next phase, he’ll probably try to conquer either the Riverlands, or the Vale, both controlled by Littlefinger. Since Tycho Nestoris is likely in league with Baelish, I suspect there’s some trickery he could do to get Stannis and his forces eliminated before the Riverlands-Vale campaign, or Stannis’s forces may simply collapse a result of the attempt.

Or simply, the Iron Bank will try to demand repayment, and Stannis will have no leverage over which he can accomplish his goals. A combination of these problems may occur. However, with all the complexity in political tension going on in the Riverlands and Vale, I don’t see how Stannis will be too much more involved. As for whether Stannis will die, or any other scenarios involving him, I cannot tell.

Littlefinger’s Endgame

What’s Littlefinger’s endgame? We know he wants to marry Sansa and rule, but is that all, and what exactly does he intend to rule? What will he do to gain the kingdoms he desires, and how will he interact with the other players of the Game of Thrones? Surprisingly, I have not seen many concise theories on this issue. (On a side-note, this is honestly why I think Littlefinger is way better character than Varys. Baelish’s schemes are much more enigmatic and sinister, while Varys’s seem to be clear as of ADWD).

He tells Sansa in AFFC that –

“… every knight in the Vale will pledge his sword to win you back your birthright.” (Alayne II)

It seems unlikely to me that Baelish actually plans on going to war – again, unless he knows he can win. There are many possibilities on what could happen.

1. Stannis, the Freys, and the Boltons all fail, and Littlefinger simply marches to Winterfell to occupy the North, with support from the Iron Bank.
2. Littlefinger will defeat a weakened Stannis and then head to the North with IB support.
3. Littlefinger will use his troops to battle the Freys, ultimately win, and then head to the North. 

Either way, in any scenario I suspect that Baelish will prevail, and ultimately head North. It is a common theory that Sansa will slay a savage giant in a castle built of snow Whether or not you believe that this is Littlefinger in Winterfell, there is a strong indication that, perhaps by the end of TWOW, Littlefinger will be in control of the North. Littlefinger using the Iron Bank as his vessel seems to be one of the only ways for him to be there, or else he will have little legitimacy.

So what is Littlefinger’s ultimate fate?

I don’t think he will ultimately win, but to be fair, I don’t for most people. Whether he’ll be defeated again by the Starks, wildlings, white walkers, etc. is unknown. Perhaps the show currently is portraying what the author intended?

However, I think the Littlefinger story is much more complex than people give it credit for. I wonder why very little has been written about Littlefinger's endgame at all, when he's one of the most nefarious and scheming characters in the book. He’s been involved in so many nefarious schemes, and to me, more than most people think. I think he’s responsible for Jon Arryn’s death, Joffrey’s death, multiple attempts at killing Tyrion, the riot of King’s Landing and holding of Tyrek Lannister, and a debt scheme with the Iron Bank. His intellect and Machiavellianism has served him well, I hope we will see his plots in the The Winds of Winter.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

I have a few questions...

Why do you think the Braavosi are interested in ruling Westeros, and not just making a profit? 

I will note that Aerys had his own problems with Braavos, do you believe that the arrival of one or more Targaryens in Westeros will impact the Iron Bank’s allegences?

We don’t even know if the Sealord, Iron Bank and Faceless Men all get along.

Let alone if Littlefinger is associated with any of them.

It seems Maesters and Faceless men both have a history of bringing down dragons, and yet we see a faceless man kill Pate to steal a key to the Citadel, so it is unlikely they are “on the same team”, so to speak.

Littlefinger lacks an endgame, he is seemingly driven purely by self interest, greed, and lust for power. But unlike a Tywin, for instance, he lacks the grander legacy and family objectives. He isn’t even a common man made good, a character type often easy to root for, he was still a noble and a ward of a great house.  He’s an interesting twist on the gallery fool as opposed to Brandon, but Littlefinger seemingly learned his lesson from Brandon and kept to the plots and the books after his taste of swordplay. I don’t see him winning anything long term, and I’m not sure I even think he’s part of a larger conspiracy. It seems to me he’s just good at taking advantage of opportunities provided to him.

[Tagganaro]

I appreciate the effort, but this whole theory basically boils down to "both Nestoris and LF are Braavosi, so they are working together."  There is no evidence otherwise supporting this.  

31 minutes ago, hedebyhedge said:

Subjugation through Debt

“The Crown is more than six million gold pieces in debt.” - Eddard IV, AGOT

Littlefinger has placed the crown in debt, 6 million dragons to be precise. He’s bribed people in king’s landing, wasted money on Robert’s excesses, and has left the crown insolvent. In fact, this is BEFORE the War of the Five Kings really came into fruition.

Littlefinger knows the Iron Bank will try to collect debts. Baelish’s schemes allow the Iron Bank to gain an immense amount of leverage over the Iron Throne. Because of this, it seems just as likely that the Iron Bank would help Littlefinger for their goals. They’re both master Braavosi financiers, and it is pretty much shown Iron Bank knows who Baelish is.

We furthermore see evidence that the Iron Bank is subduing various houses throughout the story. We know from AFFC that the Iron Bank was calling in in its loans all over Westeros.

Now, many people seem to accept the Iron Bank as loyal to Stannis, as Cersei refuses to pay the Braavosi back their loans. However, as I will point out, neither the Iron Throne or Stannis have the capabilities to pay back their debts.

I suspect Baelish and Nestoris are working together, as their cooperation creates a win-win situation. The Iron Bank gains control over kingdoms through debt, and Littlefinger can be installed as the Iron Bank’s accomplice in Westeros as a result.

I'd first say that the Iron Bank is first and foremost concerned with making a profit, not gaining some kind of illusory "control" over the North.  Just because they own debt, doesn't mean the Iron Bank controls things.  I'd think as a bank they'd be more concerned with getting their debts paid off than anything else.  I don't really see a scheme here by LF to help the Iron Bank by overexerting the Crown's finances and creating a boatload of debt that can never be paid off...I don't see why the Iron Bank would like LF for doing so.

I don't think people accept the Iron Bank as loyal to Stannis, they accept the idea that the Iron Bank is interested in seeing its debt paid off, which isn't gonna happen with Cersei, and now they want to make an example of her and see if Stannis would be a better partner to them than Cersei.  There is no "win-win" by the Iron Bank owning debt that will never be paid off.

Quote

 

Weaknesses of Stannis’s Campaign in the North

I’ve always found Tycho Nestoris extremely enigmatic, and wondered why more people don’t look into his ulterior motivations. Do that many people really accept that he’s loyal to Stannis? We already know the Iron Bank is treacherous by nature. Out of all people in the world, does it not seem strange that a Braavosi banker shows up in the North and is willing to put faith into a king, whose chances of succeeding are extremely capricious?

Sorry Stannis fans, for all Stannis’s admirable qualities, he’s probably just as bad with money as the Iron Throne.

The Iron Bank essentially has control with three different payments Stannis has to pay back.

1) The Iron Throne’s debts 2) His wartime debts (food for his troops, the Night’s watch) 3) His debts to gain a sellsword company in Essos

It is the first and third I want to talk about. If the crown, who control agriculture, gold mines, and tax revenue can’t pay the Iron Bank back, there’s no way in hell that Stannis, whose essentially bankrupt can.

Point being, there is no way for Stannis to pay back the Iron Bank. He does not have any money to begin with, and really there is no reason why Tycho Nestoris would think Stannis could even possibly pay back the huge amount of debts he owes him.

 

From what I understand, it's not entirely that the Iron Throne can't pay off the debt to the Iron Bank, it's that they won't.  Cersei has now openly repudiated the debt and is saying she won't pay it off.  The Iron Bank doesn't really care if Stannis is bad at finances, they care that they can make an example of Cersei and put Stannis on the throne on the condition that he promises to eventually pay off the debt.  

Quote

 

2) Stannis – unlikely to win the Seven Kingdoms

Stannis may conquer the North. However, no one seems to have thought of his plans after that. In fact, the idea that Stannis is going to conquer all of the Seven Kingdoms (which is what the Iron Bank supposedly wants) is extremely unlikely.

To the direct South, he has the Riverlands. The first has all sorts of madness, from the Freys to the BWB/Stoneheart and further is controlled by Littlefinger, as is the Vale right next to it. In the Reach, Stormlands, and Crownlands, we have even more madness, with the Lannisters, Tyrells, Faith Militant, Young Griff, Euron, and an upcoming Daenerys. Not to mention all the chaos in Dorne.

Just a meta-textual analysis of this mess shows there’s no way Stannis’s story is going to involve all seven kingdoms. There’s simply too many players, and not enough chapters for all of these events to occur.

So what’s going to happen?

I suspect that Stannis will win the Battle of Ice. In the next phase, he’ll probably try to conquer either the Riverlands, or the Vale, both controlled by Littlefinger. Since Tycho Nestoris is likely in league with Baelish, I suspect there’s some trickery he could do to get Stannis and his forces eliminated before the Riverlands-Vale campaign, or Stannis’s forces may simply collapse a result of the attempt.

Or simply, the Iron Bank will try to demand repayment, and Stannis will have no leverage over which he can accomplish his goals. A combination of these problems may occur. However, with all the complexity in political tension going on in the Riverlands and Vale, I don’t see how Stannis will be too much more involved. As for whether Stannis will die, or any other scenarios involving him, I cannot tell.

 

This may all be true, but the Iron Bank is willing to take a risk on Stannis if it means teaching Cersei a lesson and finding a better partner on the Iron Throne.  They want to recover their debt, they cannot afford to have Cersei sitting on the throne shirking off the debt.  

 

[divica]

10 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

I have a few questions...

Why do you think the Braavosi are interested in ruling Westeros, and not just making a profit? 

I will note that Aerys had his own problems with Braavos, do you believe that the arrival of one or more Targaryens in Westeros will impact the Iron Bank’s allegences?

We don’t even know if the Sealord, Iron Bank and Faceless Men all get along.

Let alone if Littlefinger is associated with any of them.

We know that the factions in braavos don t get along. Arya even had to be hidden to go to braavos...

And I agree with the OP in somethings. We know LF has a debt scheme. We know LF is using Money to buy allainces. So why wouldn t he include the IB in his plot? It simply makes sense that at some time LF would need the IB to help him...

Now, the IB doesn t want to own lands in the seven kingdoms. They are too easy to lose. I think they must be interested in owning businesses and importations and exportations. Things like that...

However the OP is forgeting that the IB will give time to stanis for him to pay his debt. However I agree that they are betting on him to win the north. In addition they have visited white harbor so they might have some information about the northern conspiracy or were there because of debts...

For example, if Lord manderley is in their pockets he might be blackmailed into something...

However we are left with 4 great schemes:

The debt scheme, the faith scheme, the Aegon scheme and the BwB

[Light a wight tonight]

Lot of flaws. LF isn't Braavosi. His great-grandfather was, not the same thing. Tycho Nestoris is no dummy and he more than likely knows that LF is a chiseler and wouldn't trust him.

The Iron Bank isn't trying to get the whole amount of debt the Throne owes back at once. As long as payments are being made on schedule they're happy. Cersei withholding payments to finance her fleet has made them angry.

Similarly, the deal with Stannis is based on payments, not necessarily in money. Braavos needs lumber to maintain its fleet and the North has plenty of that to barter, for example. The North is rich in resources, if not in money. And if Stannis wins the Throne he'd have all the resources of Westeros to draw on for payments.

There are other points, but the last one I'll make is that the Iron Bank finds that some nation owes them money and isn't paying they arrange for a change in government, putting in place someone who will honor the contract. They don't foreclose and take over that nation.