hardhome

[divica]

So is there some kind of consensus about what will happen at hardhome?

Like if mel's vision about fires freezing in caves and skulls remaining means that the others will attack hardhome?

Or mother mole vision about the wildlings being rescued by ships that will take them across the narrow sea? Do you guys think it refers to slavers or that there will be a storm and the NW ships will have to make a detour and go to braavos first?

And do the 3 ships that went to skane be important? like they will see daavos and maybe manderley's ships and convince them to go rescue wildlings and then all of them end up going to bravos because of the weather? And that is why mel thinks the ships are lost?

[Curled Finger]

I'm pretty sure Mother Mole's vision is of slavers--why should her interpretations be any better than Mel's?  I can't begin to imagine what this is Mel sees?   Maybe a horse race in Volantis?   IIRC there is a shipwrecked cog off the coast of Skane or Skaggos.  Any ship headed that way might have an opportunity to run into Davos.  

[divica]

2 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

I'm pretty sure Mother Mole's vision is of slavers--why should her interpretations be any better than Mel's?  I can't begin to imagine what this is Mel sees?   Maybe a horse race in Volantis?   IIRC there is a shipwrecked cog off the coast of Skane or Skaggos.  Any ship headed that way might have an opportunity to run into Davos.  

 This is mel's vision

Quote

Snowflakes swirled from a dark sky and ashes rose to meet them, the grey and the white whirling around each other as flaming arrows arced above a wooden wall and dead things shambled silent through the cold, beneath a great grey cliff where fires burned inside a hundred caves. Then the wind rose and the white mist came sweeping in, impossibly cold, and one by one the fires went out. Afterward only the skulls remained.

This are several quotes about hardhome

Quote

Jon flexed the fingers of his sword hand. "Cotter Pyke's galleys sail past Hardhome from time to time. He tells me there is no shelter there but the caves. The screaming caves, his men call them. Mother Mole and those who followed her will perish there, of cold and starvation. Hundreds of them. Thousands."

Quote

Traders reported finding only nightmarish devastation where Hardhome had stood, a landscape of charred trees and burned bones, waters choked with swollen corpses, blood-chilling shrieks echoing from the cave mouths that pocked the great cliff that loomed above the settlement.

I think it is pretty clear that mel's vision should be about hardhome. It fits incridibly well.

However at the same time I find it very dificult to believe mother mole's vision can be so wrong and that BR or even bran wouldn t send a dream to the wildlings to get away from there.

In adition the caves seem to be full of people and there aren t boats in the vision. However we know that there are 6 boats there and possible more boats around.

[Tagganaro]

3 hours ago, divica said:

 This is mel's vision

This are several quotes about hardhome

I think it is pretty clear that mel's vision should be about hardhome. It fits incridibly well.

However at the same time I find it very dificult to believe mother mole's vision can be so wrong and that BR or even bran wouldn t send a dream to the wildlings to get away from there.

In adition the caves seem to be full of people and there aren t boats in the vision. However we know that there are 6 boats there and possible more boats around.

I think both Mother Mole and Melisandre are partially correct.  

Arya reports to the Kindly Man that 2 Lyseni slaving ships went to Hardhome and took hundreds of women and children away.  She also reported that the plan was for more ships to return and take ALL of the women and children since the price of slaves was rising.

However, I don't think the remaining ships will make it.  Or perhaps they will and only take the women and children.  Either way, while the ships arrived to "save" a portion of the wildlings at Hardhome, the majority of wildlings there will probably perish per Mel's vision at the hands of the Others.  

So both visions are sort of correct in that way.

[Ralphis Baratheon]

6 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

I can't begin to imagine what this is Mel sees?   Maybe a horse race in Volantis?   

LOL Probably not far off. Mel basically misses as much or more then she actually get's right.

[Lost Melnibonean]

14 hours ago, divica said:

So is there some kind of consensus about what will happen at hardhome?

Like if mel's vision about fires freezing in caves and skulls remaining means that the others will attack hardhome?

Or mother mole vision about the wildlings being rescued by ships that will take them across the narrow sea? Do you guys think it refers to slavers or that there will be a storm and the NW ships will have to make a detour and go to braavos first?

And do the 3 ships that went to skane be important? like they will see daavos and maybe manderley's ships and convince them to go rescue wildlings and then all of them end up going to bravos because of the weather? And that is why mel thinks the ships are lost?

 

[divica]

 

Hey there could be! There are visions and hints from several characters about what might happen...

[divica]

9 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

I think both Mother Mole and Melisandre are partially correct.  

Arya reports to the Kindly Man that 2 Lyseni slaving ships went to Hardhome and took hundreds of women and children away.  She also reported that the plan was for more ships to return and take ALL of the women and children since the price of slaves was rising.

However, I don't think the remaining ships will make it.  Or perhaps they will and only take the women and children.  Either way, while the ships arrived to "save" a portion of the wildlings at Hardhome, the majority of wildlings there will probably perish per Mel's vision at the hands of the Others.  

So both visions are sort of correct in that way.

But do you think the 6 NW ships will save thousands of wildlings? Because mel believes that the ships are doomed and the others are coming...

So they need to get out of there asap. Or do you think ot will be like in the show but without jon?

And davos and the other 3 ships???

Do you think they will bring either skagosi or wildlings? And to where? And wyman's fleet?

[the trees have eyes]

On 08/01/2018 at 3:15 PM, divica said:

But do you think the 6 NW ships will save thousands of wildlings? Because mel believes that the ships are doomed and the others are coming...

Cotter Pyke's letter to Jon was bleak and dreadfully ominous.

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Jon XII

At Hardhome, with six ships. Wild seas. Blackbird lost with all hands, two Lyseni ships driven aground on Skane, Talon taking water. Very bad here. Wildlings eating their own dead. Dead things in the woods. Braavosi captains will only take women, children on their ships. Witch women call us slavers. Attempt to take Storm Crow defeated, six crew dead, many wildlings. Eight ravens left. Dead things in the water. Send help by land, seas wracked by storms. From Talon, by hand of Maester Harmune.

It looks to me like they are all toast but what we can postulate is 1) at least two Lyseni slave ships ships ran aground so they are coming back for more, perhaps successfully, perhaps not as we do not know how many ships were sent and whether any took on more refugees, 2) The Wildlings at Hardhome now believe any kneelers sending ships are slavers, do not trust them and will not board any more, whether Lyseni, Braavosi or Westerosi and so they will stay put or end up destroying the ships in an attempt to seize them, 3) the trap is closing around them - dead things in the woods, dead things in the water is truly chilling, and 4) any successful rescue ships are likely to be heavily laden and to be wrecked in turn as the Lyseni ships were - Cotter Pyke specifically says to send help by land as the sea route is closed or too risky.

I would love for the Braavosi and NW to rescue a lot of these helpless people but I fear we are about to see GRRM at his bleakest.  So both visions will prove to be partially correct: the Others will destroy everyone left at Hardhome and Mother Mole was right to see ships coming to take people away but sadly therse were eiher the Lyseni slavers or unsuccessful in their aim.  Those left are all doomed.

On 08/01/2018 at 3:15 PM, divica said:

So they need to get out of there asap. Or do you think ot will be like in the show but without jon?

Don't mention the s word....

On 08/01/2018 at 3:15 PM, divica said:

And davos and the other 3 ships???

Do you think they will bring either skagosi or wildlings? And to where? And wyman's fleet?

I don't think Davos will go anywhere near Hardhome.  He is Stannis's man and on a mission for Manderly to secure his backing for Stannis's claim.  Heading from Skagos to Hardhome risks ruining his mission and given the storms, the distance and the uncertain reception is not a wise decision to make: getting Rickon drowned, taken hostage or wightified does not achieve what he has set out to do.

I can't imagine the Skagosi will leave their homes until or unless they are truly desparate.  If they are, they likely can't fit on Davos's ships any more than the thousands of wildings at Hardhome can fit on the NW and Braavosi galleys.  They look trapped though they may not realise their positon is as bad as those at Hardhome.  I can't imagine GRRM has anything good in store for them though.

Wyman's fleet is primarily defensive if I understood him and more designed for sailing upriver or through coastal waters than long sea voyages - hence Davos getting the winning ticket to go and fetch Rickon.  I'm afraid I don't see the Northern fleet being risked at Hardhome either.

[divica]

15 minutes ago, the trees have eyes said:

Cotter Pyke's letter to Jon was bleak and dreadfully ominous.

It looks to me like they are all toast but what we can postulate is 1) at least two Lyseni slave ships ships ran aground so they are coming back for more, perhaps successfully, perhaps not as we do not know how many ships were sent and whether any took on more refugees, 2) The Wildlings at Hardhome now believe any kneelers sending ships are slavers, do not trust them and will not board any more, whether Lyseni, Braavosi or Westerosi and so they will stay put or end up destroying the ships in an attempt to seize them, 3) the trap is closing around them - dead things in the woods, dead things in the water is truly chilling, and 4) any successful rescue ships are likely to be heavily laden and to be wrecked in turn as the Lyseni ships were - Cotter Pyke specifically says to send help by land as the sea route is closed or too risky.

I would love for the Braavosi and NW to rescue a lot of these helpless people but I fear we are about to see GRRM at his bleakest.  So both visions will prove to be partially correct: the Others will destroy everyone left at Hardhome and Mother Mole was right to see ships coming to take people away but sadly therse were eiher the Lyseni slavers or unsuccessful in their aim.  Those left are all doomed.

Don't mention the s word....

I don't think Davos will go anywhere near Hardhome.  He is Stannis's man and on a mission for Manderly to secure his backing for Stannis's claim.  Heading from Skagos to Hardhome risks ruining his mission and given the storms, the distance and the uncertain reception is not a wise decision to make: getting Rickon drowned, taken hostage or wightified does not achieve what he has set out to do.

I can't imagine the Skagosi will leave their homes until or unless they are truly desparate.  If they are, they likely can't fit on Davos's ships any more than the thousands of wildings at Hardhome can fit on the NW and Braavosi galleys.  They look trapped though they may not realise their positon is as bad as those at Hardhome.  I can't imagine GRRM has anything good in store for them though.

Wyman's fleet is primarily defensive if I understood him and more designed for sailing upriver or through coastal waters than long sea voyages - hence Davos getting the winning ticket to go and fetch Rickon.  I'm afraid I don't see the Northern fleet being risked at Hardhome either.

You described such a bleak scenario...

If the wights attack I think the wildlings will run to the boats as happened in the show. it makes sense!

I can t believe that 100K wildlings will just die. I know we still have the weeper's group but I think a few thousand wildlings will have to come on boats. In the end we will end up with at least 15 to 20K wildlings.

But skagos is part of the north. Kind of... Don t you think they might want to take part in the war in the north?

What do you think the northern fleet will be used for?

[Dorian Martell's son]

On 1/7/2018 at 4:47 PM, divica said:

So is there some kind of consensus about what will happen at hardhome?

Like if mel's vision about fires freezing in caves and skulls remaining means that the others will attack hardhome?

Or mother mole vision about the wildlings being rescued by ships that will take them across the narrow sea? Do you guys think it refers to slavers or that there will be a storm and the NW ships will have to make a detour and go to braavos first?

And do the 3 ships that went to skane be important? like they will see daavos and maybe manderley's ships and convince them to go rescue wildlings and then all of them end up going to bravos because of the weather? And that is why mel thinks the ships are lost?

We get a direct telling of hardhome. Dead things in the forest, dead things in the water. There is an Other attack there at the end of dance that Jon reads about 

[the trees have eyes]

11 hours ago, divica said:

You described such a bleak scenario...

If the wights attack I think the wildlings will run to the boats as happened in the show. it makes sense!

I can t believe that 100K wildlings will just die. I know we still have the weeper's group but I think a few thousand wildlings will have to come on boats. In the end we will end up with at least 15 to 20K wildlings.

But skagos is part of the north. Kind of... Don t you think they might want to take part in the war in the north?

What do you think the northern fleet will be used for?

Yeah, GRRM has said TWOW will have a lot of dark chapters now winter has finally arrived.  I think AFFC was as dark as it needed to get but he looks to have more (and some real) horror in mind so it fits.

You know you're not suposed to mention the show, right?  It has diverged from the books and it is not supposed to be brought up in the book forum though as time passes it happens more and more often as it is now ahead of the books.  Don't watch it myself but I still try to avoid any potential spoilers or even clues as to what might happen in the novels.

I don't think there are anything like those numbers at Hardhome but, yes it does look like a few thousand will die.  That is a human catastrophe but those there do look trapped.  Maybe some ships will make it out, though heavily laden on stormy seas they are in for a terrible time.  Some will likely make it down the coast and maybe some of the Braavosi galleys will make it back across the Narrow Sea but we know winter storms are bad and we saw how the Iron Fleet was almost wrecked Spanish Armada style on the way to Meereen (half the ships lost).

From what I remember the Skagosi don't really have ships and are only nominally part of the North (I don't remember any Skagosi joining Robb in the Wot5K) and though they might give Rickon refuge I doubt they can launch an invasion or a rescue mission.  They'll fight to protect themselves but they seem fairly isloated and disconnected from things in general.

The Northern Fleet seems a bit of a white elephant to me.  If anyone attempted to invade the North Manderly might be able to oppose them but would it ever be a match for the Royal / Iron / Redwyne Fleet?  Looks like it would get blown out of the water to me.  Still, it has some defensive value and if Manderly has managed to keep it secret it could launch an effective surprise attack but where are his seasoned sailors or naval commanders to man and lead it?  He doesn't have any.  Moving troops around and protecting White Harbour and its environs seems it's remit.  Even if it was sent on a rescue mission to Hardhome could it arrive in time?  We know the wildilngs are already cannibalising their dead and the seas are rough enough that ships are already being lost.  Plus building the fleet only to lose it (or risk losing it) and all its sailors miles away seems a bad chance to take.

[LindsayLohan]

It would be insane AND awesome if the Walkers could summon a wight kracken(s). 

[Lucius Lovejoy]

On ‎1‎/‎9‎/‎2018 at 8:06 PM, the trees have eyes said:

Cotter Pyke's letter to Jon was bleak and dreadfully ominous.

It looks to me like they are all toast but what we can postulate is 1) at least two Lyseni slave ships ships ran aground so they are coming back for more, perhaps successfully, perhaps not as we do not know how many ships were sent and whether any took on more refugees, 2) The Wildlings at Hardhome now believe any kneelers sending ships are slavers, do not trust them and will not board any more, whether Lyseni, Braavosi or Westerosi and so they will stay put or end up destroying the ships in an attempt to seize them, 3) the trap is closing around them - dead things in the woods, dead things in the water is truly chilling, and 4) any successful rescue ships are likely to be heavily laden and to be wrecked in turn as the Lyseni ships were - Cotter Pyke specifically says to send help by land as the sea route is closed or too risky.

I would love for the Braavosi and NW to rescue a lot of these helpless people but I fear we are about to see GRRM at his bleakest.  So both visions will prove to be partially correct: the Others will destroy everyone left at Hardhome and Mother Mole was right to see ships coming to take people away but sadly therse were eiher the Lyseni slavers or unsuccessful in their aim.  Those left are all doomed.

Don't mention the s word....

I don't think Davos will go anywhere near Hardhome.  He is Stannis's man and on a mission for Manderly to secure his backing for Stannis's claim.  Heading from Skagos to Hardhome risks ruining his mission and given the storms, the distance and the uncertain reception is not a wise decision to make: getting Rickon drowned, taken hostage or wightified does not achieve what he has set out to do.

I can't imagine the Skagosi will leave their homes until or unless they are truly desparate.  If they are, they likely can't fit on Davos's ships any more than the thousands of wildings at Hardhome can fit on the NW and Braavosi galleys.  They look trapped though they may not realise their positon is as bad as those at Hardhome.  I can't imagine GRRM has anything good in store for them though.

Wyman's fleet is primarily defensive if I understood him and more designed for sailing upriver or through coastal waters than long sea voyages - hence Davos getting the winning ticket to go and fetch Rickon.  I'm afraid I don't see the Northern fleet being risked at Hardhome either.

Great post, thanks for including the book quotes.  I believe there will be a one more letter at most, likely none, and no survivors from Hardhome.  I believe we could get a prologue or epilogue POV rescue mission attempt OR Bran or Meera eventually leave the cave and somehow stop by there so we can see the aftermath of what happened, but I think it is more chilling and disturbing to have less information, and so if we heard nothing more than we already have that would be okay by me.

[divica]

7 hours ago, Lucius Lovejoy said:

Great post, thanks for including the book quotes.  I believe there will be a one more letter at most, likely none, and no survivors from Hardhome.  I believe we could get a prologue or epilogue POV rescue mission attempt OR Bran or Meera eventually leave the cave and somehow stop by there so we can see the aftermath of what happened, but I think it is more chilling and disturbing to have less information, and so if we heard nothing more than we already have that would be okay by me.

I think some boats will escape. In mel's vision there aren t boats in hardhome and mother mole's vision is probably related to BR/bran. Would they really send the wildlings there just to die? I think at worst case scenario they will cross paths with davos in skaagos.

[divica]

15 hours ago, LindsayLohan said:

It would be insane AND awesome if the Walkers could summon a wight kracken(s). 

That would be make sea travel impossible! Hell how do you even kill a dead kraken?

[Lucius Lovejoy]

2 hours ago, divica said:

I think some boats will escape. In mel's vision there aren t boats in hardhome and mother mole's vision is probably related to BR/bran. Would they really send the wildlings there just to die? I think at worst case scenario they will cross paths with davos in skaagos.

I hear you there - would they really send the wildlings there just to die?  I think the answer may be yes because it would be a surprisingly dark turn for GRRM (which he's know to do) and really signal folks are not safe and winter is here.  Also it means fewer pages he has to dedicate to narratively covering Hardhome (which means sooner for TWOW to come out).

[LindsayLohan]

7 hours ago, divica said:

That would be make sea travel impossible! Hell how do you even kill a dead kraken?

What is dead may never die, but rises...