Jon, Mance’s Blue Rose, and the Dayne Heiress. (Updated 1/15)

[PrettyPig]

35 minutes ago, AlaskanSandman said:

Did you notice there was a tournament of singers at Harrenhal as well?

Well now...I had missed that little detail, nice catch!   I might come around to the idea of ol' Mance after all!  

25 minutes ago, AlaskanSandman said:

One was the wife of the dragon prince, who'd brought a dozen lady companions to attend her.

This is pretty sweet too...the wife of the dragon prince and her 12 companions.   In-ter-esting.  

[AlaskanSandman]

5 minutes ago, PrettyPig said:

Well now...I had missed that little detail, nice catch!   I might come around to the idea of ol' Mance after all!  

This is pretty sweet too...the wife of the dragon prince and her 12 companions.   In-ter-esting.  

Oh snap, i didn't even catch the 13 reference!! Nice!! And yeah this all comes originally from a comment from @LynnS i believe that had totally caught my attention and got me thinking and wondering. I, like i imagine alot of people, just heard some theories and thought they sounded legit with out putting much research into it. Now that i am, im beginning to see the events differently.

[AlaskanSandman]

Once you really start comparing Mance to Bael the Bard and considering the Tourney comparison's i've made else where. There is plenty of cause to think that Mance is actually greatly involved in things. He is even mentioned in Eddard's first chapter, so he is not just last min throw away character. 

[AlaskanSandman]

So this is kind of connected to my other threads to so ill update them but i think i've figured out Mance and how he fits. It's all about bastard Starks and their wildling brides.

 

                                        I--------------------------------I

 Wildling ======== Bastard Bro                     Lord Stark                     ======?

                     I           Night's Watch                   Brandon Daughterless      I

                     I            Jon Snow                                                   I---------------------------I

                 Bael the Bard==========================Daughter                 Bastard son=====Alysanne

                                                       I                                                                     Jon Snow           I

                                                       I                                                                                 I-------------------I

                                                 Son who faces Bael 30 years later                Jocelyn Baratheon?      Gael the Winter Child?

 

                                        I-------------------------I

Wildling============Bastard Bro                Lord Stark=======

                           I                                                                        I

                           I                                                                        I------------------------I

                    Mance Rayder ====================Lyanna Stark                Lord Eddard Stark==Ashara Dayne

                                                                I                                                                                              I

                                                                I                                                                                 I--------------------I

                                                          Jon Snow                                                             Daenerys                Val 

                                               faces Mance 15 years later                         Princess       Wildling Princess

This is if i try to merge the two narratives at least and my idea that Queen Alysanne birthed a child or twins at Queens Crown. Plus my idea that Rhaegar and Arthur may have been gay like Loras and Renly. A court secret.

No way to make this more viewable for phones, im sorry :/

[J. Stargaryen]

On 1/10/2018 at 1:31 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

Like i've said before. Mance rose could easily have been written as Mance stood up, Mance hoisted to his feet, Mance boosted to his feet, Mance lifted to his feet, Mance mounted to feet, Mance raised to his standing, Mance climbed to his feet, Mance rocketed to his feet, Mance sprung to his feet, Mance sprouted to the sky as he stood up, Mance got to his feet, but no, he chose Mance rose. 

GRRM could have gone with any thing other than rose symbolism, but he didn't.

On top of the many other clues that clearly parallel Bael and his son.

But ok

 

3

Number of times "rose" appears in each book:

AGoT - 106

ACoK - 154

ASoS - 146

AFfC  - 177

ADwD - 161

---

Rhaegar's known jousting record prior to HH was something like twenty wins and only two losses. He lost one time each to Dayne and Selmy. Falling to the former at Lannisport in 276 and the latter at Storm's End. Both times in the champion's tilt. However, he managed to best both men as well. Defeating Selmy in Lannisport and Dayne at Storm's End. Which means Rhaegar's known record versus each man prior to HH was 1-1.

Rhaegar was "seventeen and new to knighthood" at Lannisport when he overcame Selmy. Which means that, though I refer to Rhaegar's "known" jousting record, it may well be the case that he only ever entered those two tournaments prior to HH. Further, despite the (likely) later setback at SE, his earlier victory over Selmy proved he was capable of beating him. Just as the trips to the finals in both tourneys proved he was a consistently superior jouster to his contemporaries, save Dayne and Selmy with whom he was on equal terms, more or less. 

Perhaps Rhaegar was somewhat lucky at HH, defeating both Dayne and Selmy. I tend to think he was inspired. The Lannisport and SE performances placed him among the very best jousters in Westeros. Which means his victory was not particularly surprising or even remotely suspicious. On the contrary, he was one of the most likely winners. Certainly much more likely to defeat Selmy (again!) than a half-wildling ranger who grew up at the Wall. Actually, Rhaegar was simply much more likely to defeat Selmy (again!) than probably anyone in the 7K besides Dayne.

Rhaegar is occasionally suspected of cheating somehow, someway at HH. But this outcome isn't that much different from Lannisport and SE where he was a finalist on both occasions. We also know that Rhaegar is capable of defeating Selmy which he did as a newly knighted 17-year-old. Though I very much doubt it, it's possible Rhaegar attempted to assure his victory in some way while still tilting himself. Considering his jousting prowess I think it is the only possibility of any funny business from him. But we can rule out things like glamoured body doubles since those only make sense if the double is an upgrade. Rhaegar's only peers at the time were Dayne and Selmy, who I think can be safely ruled out since he defeated one earlier in the day and was set to compete against the other. 

[LynnS]

12 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

Known wandering crows

• Conwy^[1][6]
• Gueren^[6]
• Yoren^[6]
• Dareon^[7]

 

^{So just checking, out of roughly 500 men of the Nights' watch, only about 175ish become Rangers, the people who do the recruiting, and of them, multiple people can be recruiters.} 

^{So, what would you all say those odds just went up to? Well at least 4/175 id say right? These odds just seem to be getting higher.}

That's very interesting.  It's hard to believe that the Watch would only have one recruiter given their needs.  Most tourney's have a tournament of singers.  This is a good way for an apprentice singer to learn his trade.  Perhaps Mance can back up his claim that he knows all the songs north and south of the Wall.  He probably was a green boy at the time of the tourney at Harrenhal, probably hadn't achieved his full height. LOL 

[Tagganaro]

1 hour ago, LynnS said:

That's very interesting.  It's hard to believe that the Watch would only have one recruiter given their needs.  Most tourney's have a tournament of singers.  This is a good way for an apprentice singer to learn his trade.  Perhaps Mance can back up his claim that he knows all the songs north and south of the Wall.  He probably was a green boy at the time of the tourney at Harrenhal, probably hadn't achieved his full height. LOL 

I'm given to understand that there are very few "recruiters" or "wandering crows."  Like I would guess definitely less than 10 if not less than 5.  The NW simply can't spare that kind of man power and like we know for example why Yoren is a recruiter...I think he hurt his shoulder or something and struggled to really fight and wasn't good at anything else.  I can't see the NW wasting Mance's talents on recruiting.  Qhorin Halfhand, who is a major badass himself calls Mance the best of the rangers.  We see this in action- he bested most of the wildling would-be kings in combat and we get to see him beat the living shit out of Jon, no slouch himself as a fighter.  I would think that besides for the few trips south of the Wall, the NW would like to keep him at hand at all times for rangings north of the Wall.  He's no Dareon you know.

[AlaskanSandman]

6 hours ago, LynnS said:

That's very interesting.  It's hard to believe that the Watch would only have one recruiter given their needs.  Most tourney's have a tournament of singers.  This is a good way for an apprentice singer to learn his trade.  Perhaps Mance can back up his claim that he knows all the songs north and south of the Wall.  He probably was a green boy at the time of the tourney at Harrenhal, probably hadn't achieved his full height. LOL 

Exactly, exactly, exactly!!! Kind of hard to argue against sensibly imo when literally the clues are alllll there lol thank you for bringing my attention to something that has led to a full on exploration that has opened up new possibilities  

[AlaskanSandman]

4 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

I'm given to understand that there are very few "recruiters" or "wandering crows."  Like I would guess definitely less than 10 if not less than 5.  The NW simply can't spare that kind of man power and like we know for example why Yoren is a recruiter...I think he hurt his shoulder or something and struggled to really fight and wasn't good at anything else.  I can't see the NW wasting Mance's talents on recruiting.  Qhorin Halfhand, who is a major badass himself calls Mance the best of the rangers.  We see this in action- he bested most of the wildling would-be kings in combat and we get to see him beat the living shit out of Jon, no slouch himself as a fighter.  I would think that besides for the few trips south of the Wall, the NW would like to keep him at hand at all times for rangings north of the Wall.  He's no Dareon you know.

yea but of 500 people, only 175 are rangers who are likely the recruiters. so 5/175 odds right there is 1/35? and if we assume only half of them 175 are good singers than round it up to be nice to 90 possible people. Then the odds are 1/18 that he was there. And remember, this is when Mance would be around Eddards age, before becoming the bad ass ranger he is know for now. And also grown to his full stature. 

[AlaskanSandman]

6 hours ago, J. Stargaryen said:

Number of times "rose" appears in each book:

AGoT - 106

ACoK - 154

ASoS - 146

AFfC  - 177

ADwD - 161

---

Rhaegar's known jousting record prior to HH was something like twenty wins and only two losses. He lost one time each to Dayne and Selmy. Falling to the former at Lannisport in 276 and the latter at Storm's End. Both times in the champion's tilt. However, he managed to best both men as well. Defeating Selmy in Lannisport and Dayne at Storm's End. Which means Rhaegar's known record versus each man prior to HH was 1-1.

Rhaegar was "seventeen and new to knighthood" at Lannisport when he overcame Selmy. Which means that, though I refer to Rhaegar's "known" jousting record, it may well be the case that he only ever entered those two tournaments prior to HH. Further, despite the (likely) later setback at SE, his earlier victory over Selmy proved he was capable of beating him. Just as the trips to the finals in both tourneys proved he was a consistently superior jouster to his contemporaries, save Dayne and Selmy with whom he was on equal terms, more or less. 

Perhaps Rhaegar was somewhat lucky at HH, defeating both Dayne and Selmy. I tend to think he was inspired. The Lannisport and SE performances placed him among the very best jousters in Westeros. Which means his victory was not particularly surprising or even remotely suspicious. On the contrary, he was one of the most likely winners. Certainly much more likely to defeat Selmy (again!) than a half-wildling ranger who grew up at the Wall. Actually, Rhaegar was simply much more likely to defeat Selmy (again!) than probably anyone in the 7K besides Dayne.

Rhaegar is occasionally suspected of cheating somehow, someway at HH. But this outcome isn't that much different from Lannisport and SE where he was a finalist on both occasions. We also know that Rhaegar is capable of defeating Selmy which he did as a newly knighted 17-year-old. Though I very much doubt it, it's possible Rhaegar attempted to assure his victory in some way while still tilting himself. Considering his jousting prowess I think it is the only possibility of any funny business from him. But we can rule out things like glamoured body doubles since those only make sense if the double is an upgrade. Rhaegar's only peers at the time were Dayne and Selmy, who I think can be safely ruled out since he defeated one earlier in the day and was set to compete against the other. 

And you dont think he could have been cheating earlier in those same competitions to get him to those finals? Barristan seems to respect him but in no way considers Rhaegar a great or even a good swords men. At best he seems to see Rhaegar as capable. And aside from a few tourney of jousting in which he may have cheated, we never hear of Rhaegar doing battle and being amazing on the field. 

[Tagganaro]

1 hour ago, AlaskanSandman said:

yea but of 500 people, only 175 are rangers who are likely the recruiters. so 5/175 odds right there is 1/35? and if we assume only half of them 175 are good singers than round it up to be nice to 90 possible people. Then the odds are 1/18 that he was there. And remember, this is when Mance would be around Eddards age, before becoming the bad ass ranger he is know for now. And also grown to his full stature. 

There's nothing that supports the idea that only rangers are recruiters...indeed we can only make the opposite assumption based on the fact that Dareon is made a recruiter.  I don't recall off the top of my head but I can't imagine he was made a ranger, I would guess a steward.  So redo the odds to 1/500 or however many NW men there are, there's very little that supports the idea that Mance was there other than there being mention of black brother and singing...that's a really tenuous connection to Mance was there.  

[J. Stargaryen]

1 hour ago, AlaskanSandman said:

And you dont think he could have been cheating earlier in those same competitions to get him to those finals? Barristan seems to respect him but in no way considers Rhaegar a great or even a good swords men. At best he seems to see Rhaegar as capable. And aside from a few tourney of jousting in which he may have cheated, we never hear of Rhaegar doing battle and being amazing on the field. 

You proposed a theory. I presented data that significantly undermined it. Instead of taking a fresh look at your theory, you're attacking the data. Please, don't confuse fake history with fake news.

I can't prove Rhaegar wasn't cheating his entire jousting career, but I don't have to. If you now want to expand your theory to include an accusation of career-long cheating, the onus will be upon you to support that claim. 

[LynnS]

15 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

Exactly, exactly, exactly!!! Kind of hard to argue against sensibly imo when literally the clues are alllll there lol thank you for bringing my attention to something that has led to a full on exploration that has opened up new possibilities  

As much as it appeals to me to think that Martin would place Mance at the tourney without telling the reader; on balance I have to go with Howland as the KotLT.  I says this because of the shield with the device of the old gods; a laughing red face on a weirwood tree.

There is something not quite right about Meera's tale.  We're told that Howland travelled to the Isle of Faces and took a leather shield, a bronze shirt and his spear with him.  Yet he shows up at the tourney with only his spear.  What of his shield and shirt?  I doubt he left them behind and in the case of the shield at least; I think he concealed it.  If someone at the tourney painted the shield for him; that would have been discovered. So I think the shield already had the device painted on it when he left the God's Eye.  

I don't think Howland needed to skinchange a horse.  All he needed were a few magicked items; a shield and shirt for his defense.  To paraphrase Mormont; he had a grumkin in his pocket to magic up his sword. So why not a magic shirt and shield?  He did just come from the Isle of Grumkins itself.  Unless we believe there is no such thing as a magic sword or magic armor in this story.     

[Ygrain]

7 hours ago, LynnS said:

Unless we believe there is no such thing as a magic sword or magic armor in this story.     

Well, it's not like we have seen abundance of those, and the one magic sword we keep hearing about was definitely not designed for doing stupid shit at tournaments.

[LynnS]

On 1/16/2018 at 0:48 PM, Tagganaro said:

I'm given to understand that there are very few "recruiters" or "wandering crows."  Like I would guess definitely less than 10 if not less than 5.  The NW simply can't spare that kind of man power and like we know for example why Yoren is a recruiter...I think he hurt his shoulder or something and struggled to really fight and wasn't good at anything else.  I can't see the NW wasting Mance's talents on recruiting.  Qhorin Halfhand, who is a major badass himself calls Mance the best of the rangers.  We see this in action- he bested most of the wildling would-be kings in combat and we get to see him beat the living shit out of Jon, no slouch himself as a fighter.  I would think that besides for the few trips south of the Wall, the NW would like to keep him at hand at all times for rangings north of the Wall.  He's no Dareon you know.

Yah, I don't think Mance is as old as I imagined. Ned is 35 and his hair is going grey aging him beyond his years.  Mance is almost all grey but only laugh lines around the eyes.  Hard living in the north and all, I suppose.  Osha tells us that Mance isn't wildling born and hasn't seen a winter beyond the Wall.  The last time Mance can be said to be in the Watch was on his first trip to Winterfell when Jon and Rob were boys.  Further, Jon describes him as a young man of the watch and Mance says that he doubts Ned would remember the young crow he met years ago.  So how old is Mance really?  I'm guessing he's 30 something   Mance has probably only been gone from the Watch for 8 to 10 years if he hasn't lived a winter beyond the Wall.  

[Bloodraven's Spider]

No... Jon is Ned's. 

[AlaskanSandman]

On 1/16/2018 at 4:14 PM, Tagganaro said:

There's nothing that supports the idea that only rangers are recruiters...indeed we can only make the opposite assumption based on the fact that Dareon is made a recruiter.  I don't recall off the top of my head but I can't imagine he was made a ranger, I would guess a steward.  So redo the odds to 1/500 or however many NW men there are, there's very little that supports the idea that Mance was there other than there being mention of black brother and singing...that's a really tenuous connection to Mance was there.  

Well Dareon was actually a steward so you are right there. But still not tenuous at all. Mance was a night's watch member and young at the time, and also familiar with all the songs south of the wall even though he was born north of the wall and raised at the wall. Plus since there was a black brother mentioned to have been there and Benjen didn't join the watch till after the war, the brother being there is likely mentioned simply as a clue for Mance and nothing else. Why else mention him and a tourney of singers? There is much more than that about Mance to that would make this more likely like him mirroring Bael the Bard and even going by Abel when visiting Winterfell. Facing his son 15 years later who like the Og Bael, his son was raised as a Stark even though it was only though the mothers side. Plus alot more clues. Though i know every one has their hearts set on Lyanna being the Knight and Rhaegar and Lyanna being Jon's parents cause the adaptation did it so it must be true.

[AlaskanSandman]

On 1/16/2018 at 4:56 PM, J. Stargaryen said:

You proposed a theory. I presented data that significantly undermined it. Instead of taking a fresh look at your theory, you're attacking the data. Please, don't confuse fake history with fake news.

I can't prove Rhaegar wasn't cheating his entire jousting career, but I don't have to. If you now want to expand your theory to include an accusation of career-long cheating, the onus will be upon you to support that claim. 

No, it doesn't significantly undermine it just cause you think so. No one regards Rhaegar as a great fighter, that' fact. He's good but not on the level of Barristan, or Arthur. I dont need to take a fresh look at my theory. Further im hardly the first to think Rhaegar cheated and isn't that good based on the evidence. And i dont need to prove at any point that Rhaegar cheated as none of my theory is reliant on Rhaegar cheating. 

[AlaskanSandman]

On 1/17/2018 at 5:50 AM, LynnS said:

As much as it appeals to me to think that Martin would place Mance at the tourney without telling the reader; on balance I have to go with Howland as the KotLT.  I says this because of the shield with the device of the old gods; a laughing red face on a weirwood tree.

There is something not quite right about Meera's tale.  We're told that Howland travelled to the Isle of Faces and took a leather shield, a bronze shirt and his spear with him.  Yet he shows up at the tourney with only his spear.  What of his shield and shirt?  I doubt he left them behind and in the case of the shield at least; I think he concealed it.  If someone at the tourney painted the shield for him; that would have been discovered. So I think the shield already had the device painted on it when he left the God's Eye.  

I don't think Howland needed to skinchange a horse.  All he needed were a few magicked items; a shield and shirt for his defense.  To paraphrase Mormont; he had a grumkin in his pocket to magic up his sword. So why not a magic shirt and shield?  He did just come from the Isle of Grumkins itself.  Unless we believe there is no such thing as a magic sword or magic armor in this story.     

Id have to disagree on the grounds that he got beat by a bunch of squires, i doubt he could be the knights they served. And there are no magic swords, not that we've seen. Nor is there any magic shirts or shields lol at best there is valyrian steel which is i guess magic like but no flames or lightening coming from it. Doesnt make the fighter stronger. Mance would also have a connection to the Old Gods and weirwoods so he could have painted it too. But i could be wrong

[AlaskanSandman]

On 1/17/2018 at 1:50 PM, LynnS said:

Yah, I don't think Mance is as old as I imagined. Ned is 35 and his hair is going grey aging him beyond his years.  Mance is almost all grey but only laugh lines around the eyes.  Hard living in the north and all, I suppose.  Osha tells us that Mance isn't wildling born and hasn't seen a winter beyond the Wall.  The last time Mance can be said to be in the Watch was on his first trip to Winterfell when Jon and Rob were boys.  Further, Jon describes him as a young man of the watch and Mance says that he doubts Ned would remember the young crow he met years ago.  So how old is Mance really?  I'm guessing he's 30 something   Mance has probably only been gone from the Watch for 8 to 10 years if he hasn't lived a winter beyond the Wall.  

Well he served under Qhorqyle we're told who died in 288 when Jon was 5. If Benjen had never met Mance then it's likely Benjen hadn't joined by then either. What Mance was doing for all those years after the watch and becoming king beyond the wall is a mystery. Specially with what Osha says. So if he did leave in 288ac then he could have only faced 11 winters north of the wall, yet she says he hasnt seen one winter beyond the wall. I imagine since seasons run funny there may have only been one or two winters since, but still, where was he? 

There is much and more going on with him and the Wildling princess Val who has the grey eyes of a stark and the honey hair worn almost the same as Queen Alsyanne who had blue eyes also. I have my opinions on who Val is