Littlefinger hired a Faceless Man to kill the Ned

[Bael's Bastard]

4 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Especially with help from Varys (or Littlefinger), Ned had already signed the paperwork to send three prisoners with Yoren to the Wall, so on the day of the execution (or right before) a faceless man switches places with one. This leaves him poised to go north with Ned, and explains why Biter and Rorge are so scared of him. All that making bodies disappear in the Red Keep dungeons is just icing on the cake for this theory... since it explains away the body of the prisoner he switched with.

 

18 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Yep, that's what I was proposing, as well.

 

With that, the idea of Littlefinger hiring a FM to kill Ned, and Jaquen intentionally ending up in the black cells to kill Ned on the way to the Wall, is the most compelling theory I've heard to explain Jaquen's presence in the black cells, and the reason he is on his way to the Wall. Good stuff.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

I don't know, do common nobodies ever volunteer for the Wall? Whereas, with the background of a Black Cells prisoner, no-one would ever suspect a secret motive. - But, I do agree that it's somewhat convoluted.

I haven't the vaguest clue.

But something just dawned on me. Every time the kindly man sends Arya out, she has to come back with three new things she learned. 

[LiveFirstDieLater]

7 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

I haven't the vaguest clue.

But something just dawned on me. Every time the kindly man sends Arya out, she has to come back with three new things she learned. 

This is actually a nice catch, I think.

(Also @Ygrain no-one, lol) 

It seems to me that the Faceless men are up to more than just mercenary assasination. They seem to go to great lengths to gather information, be it as a customs agent or by breaking into the citadel (maybe even using little birds/mice/cat of the canals). To what end? That’s the question

[A Ghost of Someone]

4 hours ago, Ygrain said:

 

That is a very valid point. Ned was doomed since the very beginning. But what if Joffrey didn't take the hint at executing Ned, what if someone came up with something to dissuade him? It was not a 100% certain that Ned would die that day, so what then? Arrange an assassination or an ambush along the way. And while you don't need an insider to do so, it is the safest way if the death is travelling along. Especially when Eddard's injury was not healing well (which I think would have killed him, anyway, and Pycelle might have had a hand in that just like with Jon Arryn).

The problem is: was the FM really waiting in the Black Cells the whole time, ever since before Yoren was allowed to recruit there? Or was there, at some point, a real Lorathi who was disposed of so that the FM could impersonate him, once it was decided that Ned would be sent to the Wall? Or did Yoren recruit more than once? Say, he took Rorge and Biter, and when he came to colect them, the jailor offered him a new guy? I don't recall if  the number of prisoners he recruited is mentioned anywhere.

Is it possible to hire a FM and keep him waiting until an opportunity presents itself?

An insurance policy to make sure he never arrived anywhere to tell about his betrayal, especially Cat or someone whom would have gone to or come to see him.

[Nevets]

Ned has minimal security.  Any bodyguards he has are his men from Winterfell.  He doesn't employ a food taster.  He presumably meets with lots of people in his capacity as Hand.  Littlefinger has ready access to exotic poisons such as the Tears of Lys and the Strangler, and I would guess has plenty of reasons to meet Ned.  You're telling me he has to employ a Faceless Man to kill this guy?  Especially when Ned is doing such a good job hanging himself with the rope Littlefinger has given him.  

Kings Landing is a capital city and a commercial center.  As such, it is likely a place with plenty of people who have rivals or impatient heirs who have lots of cash and little skill at murder.  In other words, the kind of people who would hire a FM.

I cannot see any reason for Littlefinger to need Ned dead badly enough to hire the FM, not do i see any reason he couldn't arrange it himself without the FM's involvement.

As to what Jaqen was doing in the black cells, GRRM put him there to advance Arya's story, and probably never thought anybody would care why, or if they did, would be able to tell a few thousand strangers about it.

[Ygrain]

40 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Littlefinger has ready access to exotic poisons such as the Tears of Lys and the Strangler, and I would guess has plenty of reasons to meet Ned.

1) It might be a wee bit suspicious if a man in his prime and in perfect health died all of a sudden, so soon after the death of the previous Hand

2) always keep your hands clean. Meaning, LF would never do the job on his own, just like he had Lysa poison Jon Arryn or presumably move Joffrey into having Ned executed (or perhaps even made sure Jaime found out about the visit to the brothel).

 

43 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Especially when Ned is doing such a good job hanging himself with the rope Littlefinger has given him.  

But as we can see, it was no sure thing that the Lannisters would kill him - he would have been a valuable hostage and his death caused a great deal of trouble that had best be avoided. The suicide Ned committed was only political.

 

45 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I cannot see any reason for Littlefinger to need Ned dead badly enough to hire the FM, not do i see any reason he couldn't arrange it himself without the FM's involvement.

Ned is the man who stole Cat, Brandon's brother and the head of House Stark - that's your motive for LF to want him dead more than anything else. Does it require hiring a FM? I don't know. Given the way LF operates, I think it plausible that it might.

[Ygrain]

3 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

But something just dawned on me. Every time the kindly man sends Arya out, she has to come back with three new things she learned. 

Yeah, it seem like there is some secret spying agenda going.

5 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Nothing comes to mind. "Littlefinger loves Littlefinger".

The post above sparkled some light: information. LF values information. Could the FM require information, or access to information, as a payment? - Gosh, I'd pay in gold to see that: a master schemer and liar questioned by guys who can tell that he is lying!

[Lost Melnibonean]

5 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Do you mean Jaquen might have contrived to get himself thrown into the black cells to be sent to the Wall once he discovered Ned was supposed to be sent to the Wall? If so, I think that would make a lot of sense. 

 

5 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Yep, that's what I was proposing, as well.

 

4 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Especially with help from Varys (or Littlefinger), Ned had already signed the paperwork to send three prisoners with Yoren to the Wall, so on the day of the execution (or right before) a faceless man switches places with one. This leaves him poised to go north with Ned, and explains why Biter and Rorge are so scared of him. All that making bodies disappear in the Red Keep dungeons is just icing on the cake for this theory... since it explains away the body of the prisoner he switched with.

That's one leg for this theory--Petyr's access to the dungeons. And there's a reason Rorge and Biter were wary of Jaqen H'ghar. 

[Northern_Star]

I think the FM in the black cells was a back up plan, in case Littlefinger wasn't able to get Ned executed.

I believe that Littlefinger s a FM himself!

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

I don't think the faceless man was a backup plan. I think he was THE plan. Petyr just got lucky on the steps of Baelor. 

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

17 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

With that, the idea of Littlefinger hiring a FM to kill Ned, and Jaquen intentionally ending up in the black cells to kill Ned on the way to the Wall, is the most compelling theory I've heard to explain Jaquen's presence in the black cells, and the reason he is on his way to the Wall. Good stuff.

I can think of less conspicuous and more convenient ways of traveling to the Wall than as dangerous criminal locked in a cage (out of which, BTW, he couldn't get out of his own, hence Arya's involvement). Hell, if Jaqen had wanted to go with Yoren's party as a crow wannabe, he could've just straight out volunteered.

So, not a fan.

[aryagonnakill#2]

On ‎1‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 11:31 AM, Lost Melnibonean said:

We been down this road before

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/89914-littlefinger-hired-a-faceless-man-to-kill-ned/&do=findComment&comment=6980461

Ya I know lol.  I was wondering.  Have you considered the possibility that LF enquired about hiring a FM to kill Ned, then balked at the price?

[Lost Melnibonean]

5 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Ya I know lol.  I was wondering.  Have you considered the possibility that LF enquired about hiring a FM to kill Ned, then balked at the price?

It's possible, but that wouldn't explain why a faceless man was in the black cells. 

[Bael's Bastard]

1 hour ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

I can think of less conspicuous and more convenient ways of traveling to the Wall than as dangerous criminal locked in a cage (out of which, BTW, he couldn't get out of his own, hence Arya's involvement). Hell, if Jaqen had wanted to go with Yoren's party as a crow wannabe, he could've just straight out volunteered.

I don't see how volunteering for the Night's Watch would have been less conspicuous. Volunteering would have made Jaquen stand out, as Yoren didn't actually get any volunteers, which is why Ned gave him the pick of the dungeons. And any harm to Ned at or on the way to the Wall and disappearance on Jaquen's part afterward, would have stood out much more as a possible assassination as a volunteer than as a dangerous criminal from the black cells who was being sent to the Wall in the first place because Ned gave Yoren his pick. And if he actually was hired by LF, it is possible that it was meant to be carried out after the public show but before they left for the Wall. Haven't really thought it through that much, though. Obviously there are aspects of the theory that need to be tied up, including the timing of everything, but I think it is plausible in general, especially since the person hiring a FM is in a position to provide pertinent information and access.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

Just now, Bael's Bastard said:

I don't see how volunteering for the Night's Watch would have been less conspicuous. Volunteering would have made Jaquen stand out, as Yoren didn't actually get any volunteers, which is why Ned gave him the pick of the dungeons.

This is false. The adult volunteers are so non-descript and under the radar, that nobody remembers neither their names nor even their number without looking in the appendix (where one finally finds "PRAED, CUTJACK, WOTH, REYSEN, QYLE, recruits bound for the Wall"). It would be the easiest, simplest thing in the world to add "JAQEN" to that list, and he wouldn't be any more conspicuous than Reysen (remember Reysen? I honestly don't).

The three men locked in a cage, on the other hand, are both conspicuous and memorable. Not only among all the recruits, but even among the involuntary criminal recruits, the three stand out (for the record, impressed from the royal dungeons there were also Koss, Gerren, Dobber, Kurz, but we don't remember those, either). Nope, I don't buy an assassin deliberately choosing maximum exposure and severely limited freedom of movement. That's exactly the opposite from what he'd want and need to do the job. That doesn't make any sense.

[Bael's Bastard]

1 hour ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

This is false. The adult volunteers are so non-descript and under the radar, that nobody remembers neither their names nor even their number without looking in the appendix (where one finally finds "PRAED, CUTJACK, WOTH, REYSEN, QYLE, recruits bound for the Wall"). It would be the easiest, simplest thing in the world to add "JAQEN" to that list, and he wouldn't be any more conspicuous than Reysen (remember Reysen? I honestly don't).

The three men locked in a cage, on the other hand, are both conspicuous and memorable. Not only among all the recruits, but even among the involuntary criminal recruits, the three stand out (for the record, impressed from the royal dungeons there were also Koss, Gerren, Dobber, Kurz, but we don't remember those, either). Nope, I don't buy an assassin deliberately choosing maximum exposure and severely limited freedom of movement. That's exactly the opposite from what he'd want and need to do the job. That doesn't make any sense.

LMAO! I just can't take these criticisms seriously. All three of those dangerous criminals had no trouble immediately turning up in the service of Ser Amory Lorch and the Lannisters. Had Ned actually been along for the trek, it would have been much less suspicious for him to turn up dead with one of those dangerous criminals missing than for him to turn up dead with one of those volunteers missing. Anyway, I have yet to see a plausible explanation for Jaquen being in the black cells, and "because Arya" just doesn't cut it at an attempted explanation. This at least is a plausible attempt at an actual explanation, whether it turns out to be correct or not.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

Just now, Bael's Bastard said:

LMAO! I just can't take these criticisms seriously.

OK then.

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

This is false. The adult volunteers are so non-descript and under the radar, that nobody remembers neither their names nor even their number without looking in the appendix (where one finally finds "PRAED, CUTJACK, WOTH, REYSEN, QYLE, recruits bound for the Wall"). It would be the easiest, simplest thing in the world to add "JAQEN" to that list, and he wouldn't be any more conspicuous than Reysen (remember Reysen? I honestly don't).

The three men locked in a cage, on the other hand, are both conspicuous and memorable. Not only among all the recruits, but even among the involuntary criminal recruits, the three stand out (for the record, impressed from the royal dungeons there were also Koss, Gerren, Dobber, Kurz, but we don't remember those, either). Nope, I don't buy an assassin deliberately choosing maximum exposure and severely limited freedom of movement. That's exactly the opposite from what he'd want and need to do the job. That doesn't make any sense.

It might have made sense if his target had been in that cage with him...

Quote

"Here's something you don't know. It wasn't supposed to happen like it did. I was set to leave, wagons bought and loaded, and a man comes with a boy for me, and a purse of coin, and a message, never mind who it's from. Lord Eddard's to take the black, he says to me, wait, he'll be going with you. Why d'you think I was there? Only something went queer."

Arya I, Clash 1

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

16 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

It might have made sense if his target had been in that cage with him...

Even then (assuming that Yoren was going to put Lord Eddard in one cage with Biter), being on the outside seems more beneficial, assassination-wise. Poison, arrow, crossbow bolt, and go away, without the annoying problem of being locked in a cage with a dead body and two witnesses.

[Megorova]

On 12.01.2018 at 3:28 AM, Lost Melnibonean said:

why a Faceless Man was in chains on the way to the Wall. After he was released by Arya, and then paying her debt to the Red God he moved on. He did not continue on to help Arya, and he did not continue on to the Wall.

it seemed too odd to have a character like the Faceless Man who paid Arya’s debt just sitting in the Black Cells with no back story.

I had a theory that Faceless Men and Iron Bank, are two sides of the same coin.

So that Faceless Man, that was imprisoned in the Black Cells, was sent there by Iron Bank, to spy after Lannisters, and to find out why they don't pay to IB. Whether they plan to ditch IB, or to eventually pay them back what they own to them. Other prisoners were afraid of him, because they saw him changing his appearance, and that he was disguising himself as one of guards. He was freely going all over Red Keep, listening to what people were talking about. And he let himself to be brought out of Red Keep, because he already found out everything that he needed. Though he still needed to spy after Tywin Lannister. At that time Tywin was away from KL. So knowing that Brother of Night's Watch, will be passing thru those lands, where Tywin is, he just let them to take him there. He was planning to ditch them half-way to The Wall. But after Arya's intervention, his escape became unnecessary. Furthermore shortly after that, Tywin arrived to Harrenhal, and thus that FM was able to get needed to him information. After that he went to Oldtown. There he met with Tycho Nestoris, reported to him that Lannisters are not going to pay to IB. So Tycho went to The Wall, to negotiate with Jon Snow and with Stannis. And that FM, after Oldtown, sailed to Braavos. So by the time Arya came to the House of Black and White, he was already back home.