Littlefinger hired a Faceless Man to kill the Ned

[Ygrain]

5 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Yet, nothing. So it simply is not a part of the story GRRM is telling.

But again: what if the price was not money? Do we know about anything that is dear to LF, except Cat?

[Lost Melnibonean]

17 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

There is also the major detail that Varys littlerally changes his face... Ned only recognizes him by his voice, and after feeling his face believes Varys used magic...

Varys is a Eunuch we believe, and we know Arya was told:

 

And Arya recognizes Jaqen’s voice when she first meets him:

To my mind, Varys is Varys (with a drop of dragonblood), Syrio was Syrio, and Jaqen H'ghar was the faceless man that paid Arya’s debt to the Red God. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

10 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

But not from the author himself, I hope. So he'd have found a way to indicate somehow that the Littlefinger estate took a hit. Some brothels he owned, but does not anymore. Recent mortgage on his lands. Personal retinue smaller than only a year ago. Jewelry he no longer wears. Anything.

Yet, nothing. So it simply is not a part of the story GRRM is telling.

I think the point @Faera was getting after was that the embezzled funds were never deposited into Petyr's pocket, but parked off-shore, so to speak. In other words, he didn't lose it because he never had it. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

10 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

A good hypothesis, too, but it doesn't explain how he wound up in the Black Cells. That's the place for the worst criminals, so what crime did he commit (and how come he was so stupid as to get caught)?

But let us follow your theory a wee bit: what if the guy ended up in the Black Cells because he knew Yoren would be recruiting there, and the Wall was the place where he wanted to reach, to mine some information from the library or Maester Aemon himself?  Then, perhaps, he found something at HH that made the trip to the Wall no longer necessary, and so he went to Oldtown instead -  for example, he learned that the book he knew, or thought to be at Castle Black, could also be found at Oldtown, which would be easier to infiltrate.

If the Wall was his destination, why not just turn up at the Wall, like he turned up at the Citadel? 

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

15 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

But again: what if the price was not money? Do we know about anything that is dear to LF, except Cat?

Nothing comes to mind. "Littlefinger loves Littlefinger".

9 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I think the point @Faera was getting after was that the embezzled funds were never deposited into Petyr's pocket, but parked off-shore, so to speak. In other words, he didn't lose it because he never had it. 

And GRRM wouldn't find a way to hint at that?

As a general rule, I just dismiss theories based on "X happened, you can't prove it didn't", instead of "X happened, here's passages A, B, C where the author points in that direction".

[Widow's Watch]

12 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Nothing that someone says before the word "but" really counts. Welcome aboard! 

I think he's back in Braavos by the time of The Ugly Little Girl, Dance 64...

Just to be sure. Do you think the man with the sores is Jaqen?

I'd think that Sam arriving at Oldtown would correspond with the final chapters of Dance, no?

9 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

A good hypothesis, too, but it doesn't explain how he wound up in the Black Cells. That's the place for the worst criminals, so what crime did he commit (and how come he was so stupid as to get caught)?

As far as this goes, is it possible that he used the wrong face?

14 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

But let us follow your theory a wee bit: what if the guy ended up in the Black Cells because he knew Yoren would be recruiting there, and the Wall was the place where he wanted to reach, to mine some information from the library or Maester Aemon himself?  Then, perhaps, he found something at HH that made the trip to the Wall no longer necessary, and so he went to Oldtown instead -  for example, he learned that the book he knew, or thought to be at Castle Black, could also be found at Oldtown, which would be easier to infiltrate.

It's possible. I'm not sure his destination was ever the Wall. 

I think we can surmise that he was in the Black Cells before Yoren showed up. And there's really an easier way for him to go north with Yoren than to contrive a massive plan of being thrown in the Black Cells to be taken up there. He could have either gone on his own after he completed his mission in the Red Keep, or gone to Yoren on his volition and told him he wanted to take the black. Then all he has to do is wait around for Yoren and march with him.

This is my hiccup with the speculation that he wanted to go to the Wall.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

17 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

To my mind, Varys is Varys (with a drop of dragonblood), Syrio was Syrio, and Jaqen H'ghar was the faceless man that paid Arya’s debt to the Red God. 

Fair enough, I just see a whole lot more there than there is pointing to Littlefinger. After all Petyr succeeds in betraying Ned and having him executed without needing an expensive assassin. More importantly, it doesn’t seem his style, I always see him as more of the serpent whispering poison in other’s ears. Brandon taught him not to fight his own battles. Hopefully time will tell though! Pleasure as always.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 minute ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Nothing comes to mind. "Littlefinger loves Littlefinger".

And GRRM wouldn't find a way to hint at that?

As a general rule, I just dismiss theories based on "X happened, you can't prove it didn't", instead of "X happened, here's passages A, B, C where the author points in that direction".

Ok, so you don't see explicit or implicit evidence in the text, yet, that Petyr paid a large sum of money to the faceless men. Does that rule out the theory? I understand you are not persuaded, but I am interested to know if you have any other specific criticisms. And why do you think the faceless man that paid Arya's debt to the Red God was in the black cells? 

[Ygrain]

2 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

Then all he has to do is wait around for Yoren and march with him.

I don't know, do common nobodies ever volunteer for the Wall? Whereas, with the background of a Black Cells prisoner, no-one would ever suspect a secret motive. - But, I do agree that it's somewhat convoluted.

18 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

If the Wall was his destination, why not just turn up at the Wall, like he turned up at the Citadel? 

Because the Citadel is a big place, with lots of people who don't really know each other well. Castle Black, on the other hand, is a closely knit community where people know one another's quirks and habits, so it might be difficult to impersonate someone, and strangers come there very rarely. Plus, surviving on one's own in the wilderness doesn't seem to be a FM skill, they look pretty much like towners to me, so travelling on his own that far North might be problematic for him.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

4 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

Just to be sure. Do you think the man with the sores is Jaqen?

Yeap.

4 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

I'd think that Sam arriving at Oldtown would correspond with the final chapters of Dance, no?

Nope. I'd say about a month later. There is sufficient time between Samwell V, Feast and The Ugly Little Girl for the Faceless Man that paid Arya's debt to the Red God to get from Oldtown to Braavos by sea and to assume the identity of the plague "victim," whom Arya meets after serving at table for the large gathering of Faceless Men in the House of Black and White, when Arya gets her first contract assignment. I'm thinking (just speculating really) that he did his business and got outta Dodge after doing whatever (or whomever--there's always someone needing mortality) needed doing in Oldtown... Perhaps we'll see some clues in Samwell's chapters or in Daenerys's or Barristan's chapters after Marwyn arrives in the east...

[Lost Melnibonean]

10 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Fair enough, I just see a whole lot more there than there is pointing to Littlefinger. After all Petyr succeeds in betraying Ned and having him executed without needing an expensive assassin. More importantly, it doesn’t seem his style, I always see him as more of the serpent whispering poison in other’s ears. Brandon taught him not to fight his own battles. Hopefully time will tell though! Pleasure as always.

All fair points, to be sure. 

[divica]

5 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Yeap.

Nope. I'd say about a month later. There is sufficient time between Samwell V, Feast and The Ugly Little Girl for the Faceless Man that paid Arya's debt to the Red God to get from Oldtown to Braavos by sea and to assume the identity of the plague "victim," whom Arya meets after serving at table for the large gathering of Faceless Men in the House of Black and White, when Arya gets her first contract assignment. I'm thinking (just speculating really) that he did his business and got outta Dodge after doing whatever (or whomever--there's always someone needing mortality) needed doing in Oldtown... Perhaps we'll see some clues in Samwell's chapters or in Daenerys's or Barristan's chapters after Marwyn arrives in the east...

In the timeline I have seen the last chapters of dance happen months after the last chapters of feast...

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

25 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Ok, so you don't see explicit or implicit evidence in the text, yet, that Petyr paid a large sum of money to the faceless men. Does that rule out the theory? I understand you are not persuaded, but I am interested to know if you have any other specific criticisms. And why do you think the faceless man that paid Arya's debt to the Red God was in the black cells? 

Frankly, because GRRM gives Arya anything she requires, not bothering much with the "how did we get there" part.

Needle is a bravo's sword. Why not a scaled down Westerosi longsword? Where, when, how did Mikken learned the know-how? Don't know. Never explained. Never even asked. And, surprise surprise, to go with the sword, Ned somehow found the First Sword of Braavos for her dance tutor. Talk about convenient coincidences! Explanation? Nope, let's just go with it.

In the same vein, Arya needed her own Faceless Man, so she simply got one.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

11 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Frankly, because GRRM gives Arya anything she requires, not bothering much with the "how did we get there" part.

Maybe...

Quote

Needle is a bravo's sword. Why not a scaled down Westerosi longsword? Where, when, how did Mikken learned the know-how?

What do we know of Mikken’s life? Why would we expect him to be unable to make a rapier? Presumably Jon thought it would be the right kind of blade for Arya.

Its not even like Braavos is that far from the North. Or we are talking about some non-western style blade.

Quote

Don't know. Never explained. Never even asked.

Sorry too busy asking about Valyrian Steel, Dragon steel, and Other blades... but of course you are right, how did that dastardly blacksmith learn to make a little sword! And out of castle forged steel no less!

Quote

And, surprise surprise, to go with the sword, Ned somehow found the First Sword of Braavos for her dance tutor. Talk about convenient coincidences! Explanation? Nope, let's just go with it.

The only explanation is that he came with a great reputation... but if Syrio was just a disguise then you are jumping the gun on this one. Especially if we meet another Forrell...

Quote

In the same vein, Arya needed her own Faceless Man, so she simply got one.

Unless he was there to kill Ned, and ended up with Yoren because Ned was supposed to go with Yoren, and Yoren found Arya in the crowd... so maybe not a coincidence at all, except for Yoren and Arya running into each other.

Edited January 12 by LiveFirstDieLater

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

11 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Why not a scaled down Westerosi longsword? Where, when, how did Mikken learned the know-how?

I can picture the hypotheses being typed up now... 

[Lost Melnibonean]

13 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Frankly, because GRRM gives Arya anything she requires, not bothering much with the "how did we get there" part.

Needle is a bravo's sword. Why not a scaled down Westerosi longsword? Where, when, how did Mikken learned the know-how? Don't know. Never explained. Never even asked. And, surprise surprise, to go with the sword, Ned somehow found the First Sword of Braavos for her dance tutor. Talk about convenient coincidences! Explanation? Nope, let's just go with it.

In the same vein, Arya needed her own Faceless Man, so she simply got one.

In the Asshai.com interview mentioned in the OP, the George pretty much confirms that Syrio has not other backstory than what we are told in the books. He was conveniently in King's Landing for some unspecified reason we can only guess at, but it's not impossible or even improbable. Plot devices are a necessary aspect of fiction. 

As to Mikken's ability to craft a bravo's blade, he was the smith/armorer of one of the principle houses in Westeros. And it was Jon who commissioned the blade. Presumably, Jon who was trained my a master-at-arms and educated by a maester of the Citadel would have knowledge of the bravos of the Free Cities, their fighting styles, and their weapons of choice. Or not. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

11 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Maybe...

What do we know of Mikken’s life? Why would we expect him to be unable to make a rapier? Presumably Jon thought it would be the right kind of blade for Arya.

Its not even like Braavos is that far from the North. Or we are talking about some non-western style blade.

Sorry too busy asking about Valyrian Steel, Dragon steel, and Other blades... but of course you are right, how did that dastardly blacksmith learn to make a little sword! And out of castle forged steel no less!

The only explanation is that he came with a great reputation... but if Syrio was just a disguise then you are jumping the gun on this one. Especially if we meet another Forrell...

Unless he was there to kill Ned, and ended up with Yoren because Ned was supposed to go with Yoren, and Yoren found Arya in the crowd... so maybe not a coincidence at all, except for Yoren and Arya running into each other.

What he said. 

[Bael's Bastard]

20 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Unless he was there to kill Ned, and ended up with Yoren because Ned was supposed to go with Yoren

Do you mean Jaquen might have contrived to get himself thrown into the black cells to be sent to the Wall once he discovered Ned was supposed to be sent to the Wall? If so, I think that would make a lot of sense. 

[Ygrain]

10 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Do you mean Jaquen might have contrived to get himself thrown into the black cells to be sent to the Wall once he discovered Ned was supposed to be sent to the Wall? If so, I think that would make a lot of sense. 

Yep, that's what I was proposing, as well.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

24 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Do you mean Jaquen might have contrived to get himself thrown into the black cells to be sent to the Wall once he discovered Ned was supposed to be sent to the Wall? If so, I think that would make a lot of sense. 

Especially with help from Varys (or Littlefinger), Ned had already signed the paperwork to send three prisoners with Yoren to the Wall, so on the day of the execution (or right before) a faceless man switches places with one. This leaves him poised to go north with Ned, and explains why Biter and Rorge are so scared of him. All that making bodies disappear in the Red Keep dungeons is just icing on the cake for this theory... since it explains away the body of the prisoner he switched with.

Edited January 12 by LiveFirstDieLater