U.S. Politics: And a Happy "Shithole" Year

[Kalbear]

As to what I'm pinning MY hopes on, it's the somewhat reasonable thought (at least now) that Trump will be facing a democratic congress in at least one chamber and virtually nothing is going to get done for the next two years. And that, hopefully, will be combined with a whole lot of change at the state and local level, which is where things actually tend to get done. 

The damage to the judiciary is almost certainly done, and done for the next 20 years. The damage to foreign relations and the state department will take 10 years to remedy. The environmental damage is likely permanent. And America has been fundamentally damaged as a democratic regime, and that damage will likely require massive overhaul to fix if it ever does - there aren't a whole lot of examples in history of democratic nations going autocratic and then going back. The US is very likely not going to be the preeminent world power, and that'll have a lot of interesting and bad consequences. 

But realistically, Mueller's investigation was never going to cause Trump to fall, and his firing wouldn't either.

[Sivin]

Stop adding conditions. 

All we need is two Republicans to say that if Trump fires Muller they will no longer vote on any legislation until the new Congress is sworn in. 

That's it. 

And they don't even have to go that hardline. All they have to do is make it absolutely clear that they will take on no issues that do not directly relate to the continued functioning of the Government until the new Congress is sworn in and the American people are able to make their voices heard for continued investigation in the House. 

It's that simple, Bear. 

Even if Trump fires Mueller, that's not the end of our democracy. As long as we have a free and fair election next November then the process worked. And every indication we have that isn't wildly depressive in the extreme is that we've got a shot to retake the House. So why do you need to keep lamenting endlessly that we're doomed because Republicans won't do exactly what you want. They're in a really bad position, the fact that it's of their own making doesn't cancel that fact out. So instead of screaming that men and women who do not even claim to try to represent Kalbear or his values aren't going to do "ANYTHING" with the only proof being the fallacy of "well they haven't done it yet!" 

Let me tell you a story. 

One time it was permissible in this country to own a human being. And then one day it was not. 

And no matter the fact that all of our world problems weren't instantly solved, we got better. It's hard, it's painful, and frankly it's embarrassing. But instead of feeling betrayed that people who do not claim any personal commitment to you outside of service of their state are failing at their job and calling it impossible, acknowledge that Donald Trump has not been ratified as the Supreme Asshat of the Universe yet. And just because most of our 'representatives' have abandoned us to bootlick a petty strongman to get their thieving agenda passed does not mean they will abandon the law utterly in it's hour of most desperate need. 

For all of the awful and disingenuous things they've done. What laws have the majority of Republicans broken? When did McConnel actually kneel and pledge undying fealty to Master Trump? 

Your judgement is being impaired by how disgusting their actions have been, which is perfectly natural. But they haven't broken the law yet. They treated the congress like a goddamn frathouse brothers' meeting and it's appalling. But they at least did the absolute bare minimum. And until they cross that line you have every right to be concerned and share your concern, but you have no solid footing to declare difinitively that the Republic is lost. 

[Martini Sigil]

As absurd as every individual, almost hourly White House dumpster fire is, herein lies the problem.... the tether to socio/economic reality continues to attenuate... evidence acquiesces to inclinations...  and as those of us who possess even a basic political literacy attempt to reason with bigoted mouth breathers.... there remains 40% of the country who is so cognitively compromised that they believe this gelatinous lummox is actually 239 lbs.

[Morpheus]

He ain’t heavy, he’s mein fuhrer

[ants]

On 16/01/2018 at 4:37 AM, Martell Spy said:

How's Democracy Holding Up After Trump's First Year?
It’s not dying, but alarm bells are ringing.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/01/trump-democracy-ziblatt-levitsky/550340/

I drove from one of the healthiest counties in the country to the least-healthy, both in the same state. Here’s what I learned about work, well-being, and happiness.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2015/01/life-in-the-sickest-town-in-america/384718/

What I didn’t understand is why these people weren’t claiming worker’s Comp/employers liability. Seemed pretty clear that the injuries were caused by the workplace. 

[Martell Spy]

4 hours ago, Kalbear said:

As to what I'm pinning MY hopes on, it's the somewhat reasonable thought (at least now) that Trump will be facing a democratic congress in at least one chamber and virtually nothing is going to get done for the next two years. And that, hopefully, will be combined with a whole lot of change at the state and local level, which is where things actually tend to get done. 

The damage to the judiciary is almost certainly done, and done for the next 20 years. The damage to foreign relations and the state department will take 10 years to remedy. The environmental damage is likely permanent. And America has been fundamentally damaged as a democratic regime, and that damage will likely require massive overhaul to fix if it ever does - there aren't a whole lot of examples in history of democratic nations going autocratic and then going back. The US is very likely not going to be the preeminent world power, and that'll have a lot of interesting and bad consequences. 

But realistically, Mueller's investigation was never going to cause Trump to fall, and his firing wouldn't either.

They could refuse to seat a conservative SC justice, assuming a vacancy came up. I don't think they are going to do that though. They'd face great pressure from their party and it's very possible their numbers would drop like Flake. (Of course numbers no longer matter for McCain or Corker)

If Sessions is fired by Trump they could refuse to seat a new AG. That's a scenario that could actually happen.

I'm pretty pessimistic on any Republicans doing the right thing in the next year or three though. Things like, "I'm against skinny repeal, but for it if it's in a tax bill" does not inspire confidence. Same with the lack of action on the FBI investigation of the Clinton Foundation.

Why Is James O’Keefe Going After Twitter?

https://slate.com/technology/2018/01/project-veritass-twitter-stings-are-part-of-a-larger-conservative-campaign-against-tech.html

[Martell Spy]

Steve Bannon Will Tell All to Robert Mueller, Source Says
Trump’s one-time chief strategist and current frenemy may have been tight-lipped with Congress. He won’t be that way with the special counsel.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/steve-bannon-will-tell-all-to-robert-mueller-source-says?ref=home

[LongRider]

1 hour ago, Martell Spy said:

Steve Bannon Will Tell All to Robert Mueller, Source Says
Trump’s one-time chief strategist and current frenemy may have been tight-lipped with Congress. He won’t be that way with the special counsel.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/steve-bannon-will-tell-all-to-robert-mueller-source-says?ref=home

Seems everybody is getting into the act.

Quote

WASHINGTON — Steve Bannon told lawmakers investigating Russian interference in the 2016 election that the White House instructed him not to answer questions related to his tenure as a top White House adviser, prompting a rare subpoena to compel testimony, multiple congressional sources tell NBC News.

The former Breitbart executive and now-spurned Trump confidante spent more than 11 hours on Capitol Hill to testify before the House Intelligence Committee on Tuesday, the first of three high-profile witnesses expected before the panel this week.

Rep. Mike Conway, R-Texas, who is overseeing the panel’s Russia probe, said they expect additional testimony from Bannon after further discussions with the White House over what lawmakers in both parties considered an overly broad claim of executive privilege.~~~snip~~~  

But there was rare bipartisan agreement Tuesday. When Bannon told lawmakers he was willing to answer questions about his time in the White House but the Trump administration had instructed him not to, the committee issued a subpoena on the spot to compel him to cooperate.

The committee chairman, Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Calif., who was not participating in the interview, personally came to the secure room in the Capitol to sign off on the subpoena.

Good grief, subpoena while testimony is process, did 45 essentially issue Bannon a gag order?  Really, I'm kinda confused here.

[Sivin]

So I was up all night due to a changing schedule, so I am having a bit of fun watching you guys post some stuff I saw break live hours ago  

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

This is great:

 

[Sivin]

CNN reporting that Bannon has struck some kind of deal with Mueller and will therefore not appear before the Grand Jury. 

Now don't let hope run unchecked, but Bannon is the kind of crazy that could think Trump has betrayed him and is now a member of the 'political elite'. 

Life often is ironic, and wouldn't it be ironic if Bannon took down his own sick creation out of wounded pride at his own self inflated disgusting image?

Again, caution against optimism unchecked. But this is big. 

[Sivin]

Thank you Jeff Flake. Whatever sins your silence enabled before, thank you for speaking the truth today. 

[Zorral]

16 hours ago, dmc515 said:

Ha, no.  First of all, there is no default "USian lens" on Castro.  It's one of the very few topics left that is not rigidly aligned through partisanship.  There are many business interests throughout the country that want an open Cuba, and subsequently take a more generous view on Castro.  Granted, the GOP scooped up the most rabid anti-Castro vote - but those weren't coming from an ethnocentric "US lens" but rather political (and otherwise) refugees from Cuba in South Florida.  This unique constituency is dying off though.  I've befriended and taught their children and grandchildren, and to a person they really don't give a shit about Castro, nor the near 60-year embargo.

Second of all, you're assuming a "USian lens" based on criticism of Trudeau's comments (in turn, I'm assuming you're referring to me in the quoted.  If not, I apologize).  That's just silly.  There is a clear middle ground between the extremes of demonizing Castro as a monster in the same circle of hell as Stalin and Mao, and celebrating Castro as a counter-culture hero of the downtrodden.  Both gravely misjudge the reality of the man (see below).

First, Trudeau's comments came long before Trump and his shittyness, so let's thankfully put the latter aside.  And yes, Castro was a remarkable leader.  He was perhaps the greatest speechmaker of the 20th century (his only real rival being Churchill).  He was a resolute leader that steadfastly fought for what he believed in, which included many outstanding and egalitarian policy advancements for the Cuban people.  I have no problem recognizing that - which means I have no problem with the first part of Trudeau's quote:  “Fidel Castro was a larger than life leader who served his people for almost half a century."  That's inarguable.

Yes, this is the problem.  For all Castro's merits, he still tortured and killed a lot of people.  A lot of his own people.  It's the same reason why seeing a hipster with a Che Guevara poster or t-shirt is eye-rolling at best and violently offensive at worst.  No matter how much good - in my own view - each figure did to raise awareness of how the West oppressed the third world during the Cold War (and continues to oppress, make no mistake); no matter how admirable it is that they fought against asymmetric odds to retain the sovereignty of their people; no matter how hypocritical it is for US leaders to criticize them for their tactics when our hands are much dirtier; it does not wipe away the fact they tortured and murdered political dissidents, and in Castro's case continued to oppress any political opposition for half a century.

So, when Trudeau says "both Mr. Castro’s supporters and detractors recognized his tremendous dedication and love for the Cuban people who had a deep and lasting affection for ‘el Comandante," it is an incredibly naive statement.  It also is a slap in the face to the large group of Cubans Castro killed, tortured, or exiled.  Further, it suggests a naivete that will be seized upon by oppressive regimes throughout the world - in a similar fashion to how Putin is brazenly gaming Trump.  In short, it makes Trudeau look like one of those dumb hipsters wearing a Che Guevara t-shirt that I laugh at on the street.

Finally, as an aside, I can't complete an entire post on Castro without mentioning the Cuban Missile Crisis.  There were many heroes during that tumultuous fortnight.  But if there was any villain, it is decidedly Castro.  Castro urged Khrushchev to strike first against the US.  To strike first with nuclear weapons.  Which he unquestionably knew would lead to the absolute destruction of his country and people.  How anyone can celebrate such a man is beyond me.

Why not tell me what I don't know instead of this screed?  Moreover, the general kindness and sweetness and dignity of the Cuban population to each other -- and others too -- can't be matched anywhere I have ever spent time -- especially by the US.  So something must be going on in Cuba that is really right, in contrast where everywhere else it seems something is going on that is really wrong.

Making judgments about Fidel and about Cuba and the Cuban way of life cannot be valid without having ever spent time there, over a long span of time, as well as knowing well many Cubans from all the strata of the society, including those who were imprisoned for, well, things like refusing to join the army -- which you, like everyone else who pronounces, have not and do not.  So it's impossible to trust anything such ilks pronounce, since so generally such pronouncements are not correct, particularly since the benchmark of the pronouncements is the 1970's, and Cuba's government, as well as Fidel and so much else, has changed constantly throughout. 

And even so, in the 1970's, Cuba stopped South African and the US from turning Angola's independence movement and battle into annexing Angola for apartheid and all the test.  People such as you do not balance these matters in your judgments or even factor in all these other matters as to why Fidel and Cuba's government did what was done in that period -- much less factoring in what the US was trying to do to Cuba and many other countries -- and actually did to many other countries (including killing Fidel, as the US did do with Lumumba -- all justified, of course, as Lumumba was the independence leader of a $hithole country in Africa).

[Maithanet]

Trump's approval over 40% on 538 for the first time since the middle of May.  Nothing particularly good for Trump has happened in January.  It feels to me just like it did in the campaign, where if Trump manages to not have a huge gaffe/screwup for a couple weeks, his popularity increases several points.  (Note: I do not consider "shithole" to be a problem for him at all).  It almost feels like in today's hyperpartisan society, it takes real work for Trump to stay as unpopular as he's been.

Looks like Republicans and Republican leaning independents are clearly becoming inoculated to his many outrages, and it has become normal for them.  Trump is going to be hard to defeat in 2020.

[Fez]

6 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Trump's approval over 40% on 538 for the first time since the middle of May.  Nothing particularly good for Trump has happened in January.  It feels to me just like it did in the campaign, where if Trump manages to not have a huge gaffe/screwup for a couple weeks, his popularity increases several points.  (Note: I do not consider "shithole" to be a problem for him at all).  It almost feels like in today's hyperpartisan society, it takes real work for Trump to stay as unpopular as he's been.

Looks like Republicans and Republican leaning independents are clearly becoming inoculated to his many outrages, and it has become normal for them.  Trump is going to be hard to defeat in 2020.

Public perception of the tax bill has improved as people realized they were getting a tax cut this year (opposition has not been clear that the tax hikes are in future years). Also, all these corporations claiming that various raises/bonuses are due to the corporate tax cut (even though most were announced months/a year ago) is helping its image as well.

[OldGimletEye]

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/17/16898496/blackrock-larry-fink

Quote

The man at the helm of the world’s largest investment company raised eyebrows on Tuesday with a letter to the CEOs of the biggest public companies on the globe: Be good with your business decisions, or else.

Larry Fink, the founder and chief executive of investment firm BlackRock, penned a letter to the CEOs of the companies in which his more than $6 trillion firm invests encouraging them to consider the societal implications of their business decisions and to focus on their long-term plans. “Indeed, the public expectations of your company has never been greater,” he wrote, continuing:

Exactly what BlackRock will be looking for when it comes to “social purpose” or “benefit” for all stakeholders, or what it will do about investing in companies that aren’t living up to those standards, isn’t yet clear from the letter.

A very short suggested list.

1. Take a very strong and uncompromising stand against Nazism and white nationalism, even if it means you don’t get the corporate tax cuts you’d like.

2. Before pontificating on a matter of public policy or public interest, please do your homework or don’t be a bullshit artist, so you won’t run around saying things like “Oh my god there is a skills gap!”

3. Just don’t say, “Golly, that’s anti business!”. Explain why it’s bad and don’t rely on your own personal experience to justify your preferred policy. Looking at you Bernie Marcus and Jamie Dimon. Because the alleged “anti business” policy might just have very good support both empirically and theoretically. For instance Jamie Dimon might say, “golly higher equity capital requirements are anti-business” except there are good reasons to believe it is the right way to go.

4. If you’d like globalization to continue, try to do something about international tax arbitrage games.

5. Don’t lie about raising wages because of corporate tax cuts.

6. Don’t run around Davos saying, “Golly, what can we do? We just don’t know what to do? Well, I guess we can just give tax cuts for ourselves!”

Quote

BlackRock has urged oil giant Exxon to be more open about the effects of climate change on its business and criticized its board members’ lack of engagement with shareholders. 

Well this is good, if a tad late.

[Ormond]

16 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I believe I heard one presidential historian say that at least 40% of U.S. President had a diagnosable mental or physical disorder. And oddly enough, a lot of the most popular ones did. Lincoln had severe depression. Teddy Roosevelt was a psychopath of sorts. FDR and JFK's health issues are well known. And Reagan possibly had Alzheimer's while still in office. 

Trump has said that he's 6'2 for most of his adult life. Logic leads me to believe that he's shrunken over time, not grown. And it's really fishy how they got him just below the obesity line. So yeah, I agree something's not right. 

Teddy Roosevelt was not a "psychopath of sorts." The speculation is that he had Bipolar Disorder (what used to be called Manic-Depression), and if he did, he would surely have been diagnosed with the less severe form of that, Bipolar II, where the "high" periods are hypomania with increased energy and insomnia, but don't work up to the full blown irrationality of the manic states seen in Bipolar I.

And I really doubt if Reagan had Alzheimer's while in office. He may well have been going in to the precursor, Mild Cognitive Impairment, at the end of his term, but you don't diagnose it as "dementia" at that stage. (And of course, Alzheimer's itself can only be reliably diagnosed postmortem from looking at the brain, as there are many other possible causes of dementia.)

(I agree about Trump's height, though. At age 71 he certainly should have started getting shorter, not taller.)

[S John]

13 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Trump's approval over 40% on 538 for the first time since the middle of May.  Nothing particularly good for Trump has happened in January.  It feels to me just like it did in the campaign, where if Trump manages to not have a huge gaffe/screwup for a couple weeks, his popularity increases several points.  (Note: I do not consider "shithole" to be a problem for him at all).  It almost feels like in today's hyperpartisan society, it takes real work for Trump to stay as unpopular as he's been.

Looks like Republicans and Republican leaning independents are clearly becoming inoculated to his many outrages, and it has become normal for them.  Trump is going to be hard to defeat in 2020.

I agree it is not a problem for him in the least. 

I think Dem's pulled the classic 'overplay your hand' move with this one.  It was clearly an inappropriate thing to say.  But this is a closed door meeting, right?  Trump says something crappy, but not the worst thing he's ever said by far, and congresspeople who were in the meeting can't wait to get out and tattle to the media that Trump used a bad word.  Ok, whatever, fine, it gives us a little more insight into his character and line of thinking but it's nothing we do not already know about the man - but then to beat it to death in the media for 5 days.  I mean, come on.  Does anyone really think that this is the thing that we're going to finally nail Trump on?  I mean, I certainly could not put my hand on a Bible and swear that I've never referred to anything up to and including an entire country as a 'shithole' in a private remark.  I just think it's way blown out of proportion, and that plays right into Trump's hands about the unfair media and leftist snowflakes.    

[Maithanet]

10 minutes ago, S John said:

I think Dem's pulled the classic 'overplay your hand' move with this one.  It was clearly an inappropriate thing to say.  But this is a closed door meeting, right?  Trump says something crappy, but not the worst thing he's ever said by far, and congresspeople who were in the meeting can't wait to get out and tattle to the media that Trump used a bad word.  Ok, whatever, fine, it gives us a little more insight into his character and line of thinking but it's nothing we do not already know about the man - but then to beat it to death in the media for 5 days.  I mean, come on.  Does anyone really think that this is the thing that we're going to finally nail Trump on?  I mean, I certainly could not put my hand on a Bible and swear that I've never referred to anything up to and including an entire country as a 'shithole' in a private remark.  I just think it's way blown out of proportion, and that plays right into Trump's hands about the unfair media and leftist snowflakes.    

I agree.  The only thing that made the shithole thing unique was the responses from countries around the world, and that was still like a one-day thing.  I have no idea why the media ate this story up to such an extent.  There is plenty of really important stuff happening right now wrt the budget negotiations, DACA, CHIP, etc.  But those stories are much more complicated than "Trump is a racist OMG!"

[OldGimletEye]

23 hours ago, S John said:

I agree it is not a problem for him in the least. 

I think Dem's pulled the classic 'overplay your hand' move with this one.  It was clearly an inappropriate thing to say.  But this is a closed door meeting, right?  Trump says something crappy, but not the worst thing he's ever said by far, and congresspeople who were in the meeting can't wait to get out and tattle to the media that Trump used a bad word.  Ok, whatever, fine, it gives us a little more insight into his character and line of thinking but it's nothing we do not already know about the man - but then to beat it to death in the media for 5 days.  I mean, come on.  Does anyone really think that this is the thing that we're going to finally nail Trump on?  I mean, I certainly could not put my hand on a Bible and swear that I've never referred to anything up to and including an entire country as a 'shithole' in a private remark.  I just think it's way blown out of proportion, and that plays right into Trump's hands about the unfair media and leftist snowflakes.    

I’d agree that people that focused on the profanity, rather the actual meaning and important of his words, missed the main issue.

One might describe Ireland in the 1840s as a “real shithole” as many Irish starved to death during the potato famine. It’s understandable why many of them started to emigrant to the US.

During the 1840s one might describe the countries of central europe as “shit holes”, particularly after the revolutionaries of 48 failed to bring about reforms. It’s understandable why many Germans and other Central Europeans left and emigrated to the US during that time.

After Trump and the Republican Party gets done, one might describe the US as a shithole.

I personally don’t really care all that much if the POTUS says the word “shit” or drops f-bombs during private meetings. Really I could care less.

States fail for a variety of reasons. Of course, one should have pity for the people that happened to be unlucky to be born there. And understand why they seek to leave.

The problem here is Trump followed up his comment with wondering why good Aryan Scandavians weren’t interested in coming here. Well, probably because they developed into relative decent places to live. People typically don’t emigrate when things are going well. They leave when things are going bad.

It’s Trump’s barely subtle racism that is the problem here and focusing on the profanity misses the bigger issue.