U.S. Politics: And a Happy "Shithole" Year

[Sivin]

I would say in their defense that Trump's comment is incredibly relevant to DACA because it proves he and his base are negotiating from a racist core position. The media failed to keep that clear, but I've seen it mentioned in every hour of broadcast I've watched. It's difficult when Republicans are doing the things they're doing. Which is why we have to stay calm and look inward to find new ways to keep the truth above the river of shit flowing from the mouths of a horrifically misguided minority. 

[Paladin of Ice]

42 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Trump's approval over 40% on 538 for the first time since the middle of May.  Nothing particularly good for Trump has happened in January.  It feels to me just like it did in the campaign, where if Trump manages to not have a huge gaffe/screwup for a couple weeks, his popularity increases several points.  (Note: I do not consider "shithole" to be a problem for him at all).  It almost feels like in today's hyperpartisan society, it takes real work for Trump to stay as unpopular as he's been.

 

A key factor that may point in the other direction: some polling groups like Gallup have stopped doing daily approval polls on Trump, so that gives more weight to all the others that still are doing those polls, such as Rasmussen (which is pretty notably pro-Republican) and McLaughlin. (Republican pollster that predicted Eric Cantor was going to win his primary by 34 points when Cantor lost by 12.)

So I'd say to take it with a grain of salt, even though I agree that Trump's shithole comment is not by any means a problem for his base or those who are close to his base.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Trump's approval over 40% on 538 for the first time since the middle of May.  Nothing particularly good for Trump has happened in January.  It feels to me just like it did in the campaign, where if Trump manages to not have a huge gaffe/screwup for a couple weeks, his popularity increases several points.  (Note: I do not consider "shithole" to be a problem for him at all).  It almost feels like in today's hyperpartisan society, it takes real work for Trump to stay as unpopular as he's been.

Looks like Republicans and Republican leaning independents are clearly becoming inoculated to his many outrages, and it has become normal for them.  Trump is going to be hard to defeat in 2020.

I’ve seen a few moderate conservatives who’ve left the party suggest that the overwhelmingly negative coverage of Trump combined with the Russia investigation is causing Republicans to rally around Trump. That could be partly responsible for the uptick in his approval ratings.

46 minutes ago, Ormond said:

Teddy Roosevelt was not a "psychopath of sorts." The speculation is that he had Bipolar Disorder (what used to be called Manic-Depression), and if he did, he would surely have been diagnosed with the less severe form of that, Bipolar II, where the "high" periods are hypomania with increased energy and insomnia, but don't work up to the full blown irrationality of the manic states seen in Bipolar I.

What would you call someone who enjoys killing people? Because Ken Burns’ documentary on the Roosevelts made it pretty apparent that Teddy had a blood lust.

[Maithanet]

6 minutes ago, Paladin of Ice said:

A key factor that may point in the other direction: some polling groups like Gallup have stopped doing daily approval polls on Trump, so that gives more weight to all the others that still are doing those polls, such as Rasmussen (which is pretty notably pro-Republican) and McLaughlin. (Republican pollster that predicted Eric Cantor was going to win his primary by 34 points when Cantor lost by 12.)

So I'd say to take it with a grain of salt, even though I agree that Trump's shithole comment is not by any means a problem for his base or those who are close to his base.

Don't delude yourself that this is just biased pollsters. 

Ipsos is a good pollster, and they've have 4 weekly polls in a row with Trump at or above 40%.  Prior to that, he hadn't been able to manage 40% since September with them. 

The YouGov poll has Trump at 42%, you have to go all the way back to April before he got a result that good with them.  Zogby has him at 46%, his highest poll since February. 

Sure, he's still only around 40%, and some quality pollsters have found recent results below that, but it's pretty inarguable that he's been getting better polling in January than he has for many months. 

[S John]

21 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

I’d agree that people that focused on the profanity, rather the actual meaning and important of his words, missed the main issue.

One might describe Ireland in the 1840s as a “real shithole” as many Irish starved to death during the potato famine. It’s understandable why many of them started to emigrant to the US.

During the 1840s one might describe the countries of central europe as “shit holes”, particularly after the revolutionaries of 48 failed to bring about reforms. It’s understandable why many Germans and other Central Europeans left and emigrated to the US during that time.

After Trump and the Republican Party gets done, one might describe the US as a shithole.

I personally don’t really care all that much if the POTUS says the word “shit” or drops f-bombs during private meetings. Really I could care less.

States fail for a variety of reasons. Of course, one should have pity for the people that happened to be unlucky to be born there. And understand why they seek to leave.

The problem here is Trump followed up his comment with wondering why good Aryan Scandavians weren’t interested in coming here. Well, probably because they developed into relative decent places to live. People typically don’t emigrate when things are going well. They leave when things are going bad.

It’s Trump’s barely subtle racism that is the problem here and focusing on the profanity misses the bigger issue.

Yea the Norwegian part, IMO, is where he (possibly unintentionally, because he’s a complete idiot) showed his true colors.  IE ‘why are all these brown folks moving here instead of white people?!’  If he hadn’t tacked that on I wouldn’t think there’d be any story here at all.  And furthermore I don’t think Trump even registers that as an inappropriate sentiment.

But instead the focus has mainly been on the use of the word shithole.  Maybe the American public’s knowledge of geography is so abysmal that they can’t be expected to read between the lines on Norway vs. Africa / Central America.  Or perhaps it’s been masterful damage control on the part of conservatives, making the debate about whether it was shithole or shithouse, and pointing out that Obama once said Libya was a shitshow, rather than confronting what the actual problem with the alleged statement was which is the obvious preference of the president of white European immigrants over darker skinned ones from elsewhere.  The use of the word shithole in private, IMO, is a non-story but that’s what the focus has been.

[Fez]

What's interesting though about Trump's relatively improved job rating is that it doesn't seem to be changing the electoral facts on the ground. Democrats' over-performance in the special elections last night was right in line with where it was throughout 2017. Maybe that's a lagging indicator, but I'd find that surprising.

The next Federal special election is PA-18 on March 13, Tim Murphy's old district, and we'll learn more then. Trump won by 19.6 points and Murphy was unopposed in 2016. So it's yet another extremely Republican district.

[Maithanet]

12 minutes ago, Fez said:

What's interesting though about Trump's relatively improved job rating is that it doesn't seem to be changing the electoral facts on the ground. Democrats' over-performance in the special elections last night was right in line with where it was throughout 2017. Maybe that's a lagging indicator, but I'd find that surprising.

The next Federal special election is PA-18 on March 13, Tim Murphy's old district, and we'll learn more then. Trump won by 19.6 points and Murphy was unopposed in 2016. So it's yet another extremely Republican district.

I agree it doesn't make a lot of sense that voting would be a lagging indicator.  After all, that's the whole point of polling most of the time, is to get an idea of how people feel about politics and how those feelings will impact their vote. 

Basically what I am seeing is that since the tax cut was passed, a few Republicans who were unhappy with Trump have come back into the fold.  It is easy to believe that these aren't the kind of people who vote in special elections anyway.  Special elections of state legislature seats are for high intensity voters.  Right now the Democrats have a big advantage there. 

Nonetheless, this improvement of standing helps Trump further bully Congress, and if it persists will help him in 2020.  

[aceluby]

19 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I agree it doesn't make a lot of sense that voting would be a lagging indicator.  After all, that's the whole point of polling most of the time, is to get an idea of how people feel about politics and how those feelings will impact their vote. 

Basically what I am seeing is that since the tax cut was passed, a few Republicans who were unhappy with Trump have come back into the fold.  It is easy to believe that these aren't the kind of people who vote in special elections anyway.  Special elections of state legislature seats are for high intensity voters.  Right now the Democrats have a big advantage there. 

Nonetheless, this improvement of standing helps Trump further bully Congress, and if it persists will help him in 2020.  

Yeah, I've seen this with conservative sorts of people online.  Along the lines of "who cares if Trump's a racist, isn't your 401k doing awesome?!?".

[Mexal]

39 minutes ago, Fez said:

What's interesting though about Trump's relatively improved job rating is that it doesn't seem to be changing the electoral facts on the ground. Democrats' over-performance in the special elections last night was right in line with where it was throughout 2017. Maybe that's a lagging indicator, but I'd find that surprising.

The next Federal special election is PA-18 on March 13, Tim Murphy's old district, and we'll learn more then. Trump won by 19.6 points and Murphy was unopposed in 2016. So it's yet another extremely Republican district.

And Trump is going there soon to start campaigning. Should be interesting.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

It’s going to be fun watching social conservatives attempts at defending this upcoming story:

Quote

Porn star Stormy Daniels told a magazine six years ago that she had an affair with Donald Trump starting right after his wife Melania gave birth to their son, Barron — adding that the business magnate was nothing special in the sack.

“[The sex] was textbook generic,” Daniels — whose real name is Stephanie Clifford — told InTouch magazine in 2011. It “was nothing crazy. It was one position, what you would expect someone his age to do.”

The interview — which is being published for the first time in the mag’s Jan. 29 edition — surfaced Wednesday.

Daniels now denies the pair had any relationship — although the Wall Street Journal recently reported that that’s because she was paid a reported $130,000 in hush money in October 2016. Daniels also denies being paid.

But the “Good Will Humping” star had already spilled the dirty details to the magazine years ago, according to InTouch, which also confirmed the account with her friends and had her sit for a polygraph test, which it says she passed.

She and Trump met at a celebrity golf tournament in Nevada in 2006 — after Trump had married Melania and when their son, Barron, was 3 months old, she told the magazine.

Daniels posted a photo of herself smiling next to a beaming Trump on her Myspace page in mid-July 2006.

She agreed to go back to his hotel room, where she says she teased him about his hair and he evaded her questions about Melania.

“He goes, ‘Oh, don’t worry about her,’ ” she told the mag.

Eventually, Trump made his move, she said.

“He was sitting on the bed, and he was like, ‘Come here.’ And I was like, ‘Ugh, here we go,’ and we started kissing,” she said.

“I actually don’t even remember why I did it, but I do remember while we were having sex, I was like, ‘Please don’t try to pay me.’ And then I remember thinking, ‘But I bet if he did, it would be a lot,”’ she said, according to the mag.

Afterward, he asked her to sign a copy of her X-rated film “3 Wishes,” Daniels said.

Trump then became “smitten” and started calling her every 10 days, promising to get her on “The Apprentice” and referring to her as “honeybunch,” she said.

She also recalls Trump comparing her to his daughter, Ivanka.

“He told me once that I was someone to be reckoned with, beautiful and smart just like his daughter,” Daniels said

https://nypost.com/2018/01/17/porn-star-detailed-alleged-affair-with-trump-in-2011-interview/

[Maithanet]

11 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

It’s going to be fun watching social conservatives attempts at defending this upcoming story:

https://nypost.com/2018/01/17/porn-star-detailed-alleged-affair-with-trump-in-2011-interview/

What about this story makes you think that it will be a problem for Trump?  No one, including social conservatives, believe that Trump has been faithful to his wives.  I mean, he was caught on tape bragging about trying to have an affair back in 2005. 

 

[aceluby]

5 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

What about this story makes you think that it will be a problem for Trump?  No one, including social conservatives, believe that Trump has been faithful to his wives.  I mean, he was caught on tape bragging about trying to have an affair back in 2005. 

 

It was just too much for me to handle when conservatives went crazy about Al Fraken when this is the behavior they support for President.  It's just disgusting.  Social conservatives have to be the most hypocritical people in this country.

[DanteGabriel]

15 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

What about this story makes you think that it will be a problem for Trump?  No one, including social conservatives, believe that Trump has been faithful to his wives.  I mean, he was caught on tape bragging about trying to have an affair back in 2005. 

 

Word is that In Touch is going to publish the 2011 story and there might be some, uh, physical descriptions shared. If there's anything unflattering, imagine how difficult it would be for him to avoid responding or lashing out.

[Ormond]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

What would you call someone who enjoys killing people? Because Ken Burns’ documentary on the Roosevelts made it pretty apparent that Teddy had a blood lust.

I haven't seen Burns' documentary but I just went and read several reviews of it and can't find anything that suggests Burns was saying TR had a "blood lust". One review mentions that he "romanticized war", but that doesn't seem to be the same thing to me. One can romanticize battle without "enjoying killing people." Cultures around the world have encouraged their young men to "romanticize" war and battle as a way to distract them from the fact that they are actually killing people in the process. 

[Fez]

14 minutes ago, aceluby said:

It was just too much for me to handle when conservatives went crazy about Al Fraken when this is the behavior they support for President.  It's just disgusting.  Social conservatives have to be the most hypocritical people in this country.

I haven't followed the details closely. But if Stormy Daniels was fine with everything that was happening, than that is a different situation than the Al Franken stuff. Consent is important.

SoCons are incredibly hypocritical and are about this very topic, but the right comparison is Bill Clinton, not Al Franken (and even that isn't perfect, because the US President-Intern power divide is much bigger than TV Host-Porn Star power divide).

Seems like SoCons have figured out their stance. They really are despicable.

[Ormond]

2 minutes ago, Fez said:

I haven't followed the details closely. But if Stormy Daniels was fine with everything that was happening, than that is a different situation than the Al Franken stuff. Consent is important.

SoCons are incredibly hypocritical and are about this very topic, but the right comparison is Bill Clinton, not Al Franken (and even that isn't perfect, because the US President-Intern power divide is much bigger than TV Host-Porn Star power divide).

Seems like SoCons have figured out their stance. They really are despicable.

I can't resist a Biblical comeback to that one. In David's case, God sent the prophet Nathan to him to point out his sin, and David repented. Anyone think that's likely to happen with Trump? 

[IamMe90]

6 minutes ago, Fez said:

I haven't followed the details closely. But if Stormy Daniels was fine with everything that was happening, than that is a different situation than the Al Franken stuff. Consent is important.

SoCons are incredibly hypocritical and are about this very topic, but the right comparison is Bill Clinton, not Al Franken (and even that isn't perfect, because the US President-Intern power divide is much bigger than TV Host-Porn Star power divide).

I think he was probably referring to pussy gate, and the various allegations of sexual assault against Trump, rather than this specific story. 

[DanteGabriel]

5 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I can't resist a Biblical comeback to that one. In David's case, God sent the prophet Nathan to him to point out his sin, and David repented. Anyone think that's likely to happen with Trump? 

As I recall, it went pretty badly for King David's eldest kids too, so not sure that should be the desired comparison.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

53 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I haven't seen Burns' documentary but I just went and read several reviews of it and can't find anything that suggests Burns was saying TR had a "blood lust". One review mentions that he "romanticized war", but that doesn't seem to be the same thing to me. One can romanticize battle without "enjoying killing people." Cultures around the world have encouraged their young men to "romanticize" war and battle as a way to distract them from the fact that they are actually killing people in the process. 

First, I highly recommend checking it out if the history of the Roosevelt family peaks your interests. Just know that it’s a large time investment. Second, what did you Google search, cause I found this near the top of the page:

Quote

During the first installment of PBS's The Roosevelts: An Intimate History on Sunday, historian Clay Jenkinson and former Newsweek editor turned historian Evan Thomas slammed Theodore Roosevelt as a bloodthirsty "imperialist" who promoted the "glorification of war" and built up a "cult" of personality. [Listen to the audio]

Speaking on Roosevelt's command of the Rough Riders during the Spanish-American War, Jenkinson proclaimed: "There's no question that Roosevelt is an imperialist. Apologists like to try to play this down. But the fact is he's probably the most significant imperialist in American history." Jenkinson seemed troubled by Roosevelt's call for the United States to "take our place in the world's arena."

Minutes later, Jenkinson launched a more pointed attack against the nation's 26th president: "This is really important. There is a blood lust in Theodore Roosevelt. He was a killer. You can't – you can't sanitize that."

https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/kyle-drennen/2014/09/16/pbs-doc-teddy-roosevelt-imperialist-killer-who-glorified-war

Ken Burns didn’t specifically say it, but historians in his documentary did. I also found some other historians who used similar language when discussing this aspect of Roosevelt’s life and personality. I probably should have phrased it better in my initial post though.

Also, dude killed A LOT of animals, both as a youth and as an adult. When did psychologists start using that as a sign of antisocial behavior?

[Fragile Bird]

I guess Bob Dole is expected to die soon, right? Why wait till a guy is 94 before you give him the Congressional Gold Medal?