Is Jon Snow going to go mad?

[Megorova]

It's possible that Jon will have psychological trauma after that experience, whether he will really die, or even if he will survive somehow. But going mad is a bit exaggerated. Based on Jon's previous experiences of physically and psychologically damaging events, I don't think that he is prone to Targaryen madness.

He didn't became insane after hearing news that Ned is dead, Robb is dead, Bran and Rickon are dead, and Arya probably also dead; Winterfell got burned; Lord Commander Mormont got killed; uncle Benjet disappeared; Ygritte was killed, and Jon even had to bury her himself; he had to kill Halfhand, to deceive wildlings that he is a turncloak, and later to convince Black Brothers not to execute him, for everything he had to do alongside wildlings; had to go on false negotiations with Mance, which was actually supposed to be an assassination attempt, and was one-way ticket for Jon, etc.

Add to that physical aspects of his experiences during great ranging and until his death - hunger, cold, pain, wounds, no time to rest, constant danger, exhaustion and constant problems, etc. And after all of it, he not only didn't became mentally unstable, on the contrary - he was able to think clearly, and he made very wise decisions (marrying Alys Karstark with Magnar of Thenn; borrowing money from Iron Bank; letting wildlings to cross on this side, and not to become soldiers in Undead Army; taking from wildlings their valuables, to buy food to sustain Night's Watch thru winter), and he was ready to go and fight in a gruesome battle agains Boltons. 

He lived thru all of those hard experiences and didn't get mad, so it's unlikely that one small death can seriously damage his mind.

42 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

Inside the tent the shapes were dancing, circling the brazier and the bloody bath, dark against the sandsilk, and some did not look human. She glimpsed the shadow of a great wolf, and another like a man wreathed in flames.

In that vision there was wolf, flaming man, but there were also other shadows - those that looked human. Wolf - Old Gods, flaming man - R'hllor, and others could be Seven Gods (or Mother, and the Great Shepherd). That's if Mirri's ritual summoned to her deities to cure Drogo. Or maybe the ritual that she performed had totally different purpose.

Also could be that the wolf was Jon, and the flaming man was Rhaego - two heads of the dragon in addition to Dany.

[Varysblackfyre321]

6 minutes ago, divica said:

He will certainly pay more atention to possible betrayals. And don t trust in people so easily. Basically pay more atention to potential schemers against him.

I wonder if he'll take the wrong lesson from that and isolate himself even more. 

[divica]

1 minute ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I wonder if he'll take the wrong lesson from that and isolate himself even more

That is a very interesting point. He created a rift between him and some of his friends in the watch because he was their lord and had to be able to judge them or something like that. And it was the brothers in high positions that stabed him.

I think he will either spend time with whoever he likes and trusts no matter what ned taught him or start trusting no one... However as someone has to protect his body while he is in ghost I don t think he can go "I don t trust anyone" all the way.

[Varysblackfyre321]

7 minutes ago, Megorova said:

It's possible that Jon will have psychological trauma after that experience, whether he will really die, or even if he will survive somehow. But going mad is a bit exaggerated. Based on Jon's previous experiences of physically and psychologically damaging events, I don't think that he is prone to Targaryen madness.

He didn't became insane after hearing news that Ned is dead, Robb is dead, Bran and Rickon are dead, and Arya probably also dead; Winterfell got burned; Lord Commander Mormont got killed; uncle Benjet disappeared; Ygritte was killed, and Jon even had to bury her himself; he had to kill Halfhand, to deceive wildlings that he is a turncloak, and later to convince Black Brothers not to execute him, for everything he had to do alongside wildlings; had to go on false negotiations with Mance, which was actually supposed to be an assassination attempt, and was one-way ticket for Jon, etc.

Add to that physical aspects of his experiences during great ranging and until his death - hunger, cold, pain, wounds, no time to rest, constant danger, exhaustion and constant problems, etc. And after all of it, he not only didn't became mentally unstable, on the contrary - he was able to think clearly, and he made very wise decisions (marrying Alys Karstark with Magnar of Thenn; borrowing money from Iron Bank; letting wildlings to cross on this side, and not to become soldiers in Undead Army; taking from wildlings their valuables, to buy food to sustain Night's Watch thru winter), and he was ready to go and fight in a gruesome battle agains Boltons. 

He lived thru all of those hard experiences and didn't get mad, so it's unlikely that one small death can seriously damage his mind.

In that vision there was wolf, flaming man, but there were also other shadows - those that looked human. Wolf - Old Gods, flaming man - R'hllor, and others could be Seven Gods (or Mother, and the Great Shepherd). That's if Mirri's ritual summoned to her deities to cure Drogo. Or maybe the ritual that she performed had totally different purpose.

Also could be that the wolf was Jon, and the flaming man was Rhaego - two heads of the dragon in addition to Dany.

Targaryen madness isn't a really thing in general. Count how many "mad kings" thereve been in all there times as kings in Westeroes you'll get what 5 at most. None-monarch Targaryians not that much either. If he had simply died.I would concur with your argument. Beric died and although getting a little more hollow each time he was brought back he was perfectly sane.  But Jon may have also warged into ghost befor he died. The consequence of his resurrection and the effects on him are likely going to be diffrent no? But, yeah, I concur with your sentiment. I don't see Jon going mad in the way Aerys was but I think it will have a permnent effect on his psyce. 

[The Fattest Leech]

3 hours ago, divica said:

Mostly because bran's vision of all warmth leaving him and him only feeling the cold in the last chapter. In adition there are a lot of hints about jon going into ghost.

But keep in mind that the wall holds as long as the brothers stand strong. Well, because of the mutiny, the Wall did not stand strong and is in the process of falling (literately speaking as well as soon physically).

There are two kinds of cold, and what Jon felt was the cold that the Others bring.

3 hours ago, divica said:

However you might be right. He doesn t die but gets stuck on ghost because he doesn t know how to get out? If the mountain survived a spear to the stomach for a couple of days jon should be able to survive some stabbings for a while lol.

People often use the idea that "blood welled" from the neck wound to mean that blood somehow gushed from Jon to the point that he was bleeding out and dying.

Not true in the way the author uses the term. GRRM describes blood welling in no less than eight cases I can find, and none of them are lethal wounds. The character may soon die, but it is always of something else entirely, and not a "blood welling" wound.

3 hours ago, divica said:

In adition, grrm has to have a plan to get jon out of the wall. Unless the idea is to use robbs will... But as jon sworn to be in the NW to the old gods I don t think robbs will will be enough...

Yeah, I don't see Jon being dead at all. Dead by story's end? Quite possibly. Severely wounded now at the end of ADWD? Yes. Having his first conscious warg in to Ghost (all other times were not intentional and confusing)? Yes. The proverbial "killing" the boy to let the man be born? Yes. I figure Jon will be "out" for either 3, 9, or 12 days, and all for different possible reasons.

To the bold about the Wall, maybe this? This main idea is brought up a few times. Here is one of them:

A Storm of Swords - Samwell II

"We never knew . . ."

"We never knew! But we must have known once. The Night's Watch has forgotten its true purpose, Tarly. You don't build a wall seven hundred feet high to keep savages in skins from stealing women. The Wall was made to guard the realms of men . . . and not against other men, which is all the wildlings are when you come right down to it. Too many years, Tarly, too many hundreds and thousands of years. We lost sight of the true enemy. And now he's here, but we don't know how to fight him. Is dragonglass made by dragons, as the smallfolk like to say?"

"The m-maesters think not," Sam stammered. "The maesters say it comes from the fires of the earth. They call it obsidian."

 

- And we all know this... these are all things that will happen when the real watch starts... and not from just one man, but from the many who stand together, not just certified^R Night's Watch brothers...

 

"Night gathers, and now my watch begins. It shall not end until my death. I shall take no wife, hold no lands, father no children. I shall wear no crowns and win no glory. I shall live and die at my post. I am the sword in the darkness. I am the watcher on the walls. I am the fire that burns against the cold, the light that brings the dawn, the horn that wakes the sleepers, the shield that guards the realms of men. I pledge my life and honor to the Night's Watch, for this night and all the nights to come."

 

A Storm of Swords - Bran III

I won't be afraid. He was the Prince of Winterfell, Eddard Stark's son, almost a man grown and a warg too, not some little baby boy like Rickon. Summer would not be afraid. "Most like they're just some Umbers," he said. "Or they could be Knotts or Norreys or Flints come down from the mountains, or even brothers from the Night's Watch. Were they wearing black cloaks, Jojen?"

"By night all cloaks are black, Your Grace. And the flash came and went too fast for me to tell what they were wearing."

 

-And there is a reason why the select few in the story are the chosen ones, they know what to do based on some sort of "instinct", and something older and truer than these empty words in-world people fight about now, as Marsh shows in this scene.

A Dance with Dragons - Jon XI

Jon's anger flared. "No, my lord, I mean to set them to sewing lacy smallclothes. Of course they shall be trained at arms. They shall also churn butter, hew firewood, muck stables, empty chamber pots, and run messages … and in between they will be drilled with spear and sword and longbow."

Marsh flushed a deeper shade of red. "The lord commander must pardon my bluntness, but I have no softer way to say this. What you propose is nothing less than treason. For eight thousand years the men of the Night's Watch have stood upon the Wall and fought these wildlings.[<<<BIG clue that Marsh does not know the meaning of the vows. He has "forgotten" as Mormont says] Now you mean to let them pass, to shelter them in our castles, to feed them and clothe them and teach them how to fight. Lord Snow, must I remind you? You swore an oath."

"I know what I swore." Jon said the words. "I am the sword in the darkness. I am the watcher on the walls. I am the fire that burns against the cold, the light that brings the dawn, the horn that wakes the sleepers, the shield that guards the realms of men. Were those the same words you said when you took your vows?"

[Varysblackfyre321]

3 hours ago, divica said:

However you might be right. He doesn t die but gets stuck on ghost because he doesn t know how to get out? If the mountain survived a spear to the stomach for a couple of days jon should be able to survive some stabbings for a while lol.

 

That's kinda a leap man. Oberyn's one stab could have missed the vital organs and Gregore immediately go medical attention  to prevent him from just bleeding out right there. Jon was not so lucky.

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

How things go after Jon's death is a tough call. If I were Marsh my men would already control the wildlings hostages. That way I'd have them by their balls. Those who'll survive the burning of and or in the Shieldhall, that is. Butchering scores of men shouldn't be that easy if they are drunk and your men are the only ones armed with good steel (as Lord Steward, Marsh should also be able to control the access to the armory).

Do you think they'll try to expel the free folk from NW land?

[Skahaz mo Kandaq]

6 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

This is not a troll thread people. 

I know some people like theorize that Dany is going mad (because of the misconception Targaryians are prone to madness),but I feel people don't really consider whether or not his death and his possible warging into ghost will effect him mentally

IF Jon is a Targaryen, then he has just as much of a chance of going mad as any Targaryen.  There was an excellent piece written on the subject of Targaryen madness and exaggeration last year.  I suggest doing a search and looking it up. 

I will say, many already consider Jon's behavior during his last few chapters of aDwD to signs of madness.  Sending the suicide mission to Hardhome can rightly be seen as an act of madness.  His attempts to "divorce" his sister from Ramsay, knowing all of the implications that such a move creates, is not only treason but can be viewed as an act of madness.  His constant preoccupation with Arya is disturbing to say the least, perhaps OCD obsessive. 

[Curled Finger]

I don't see how having a consciousness within a bonded creature could hurt any human, particularly wargs. Arya, Bran and Jon all dream in their wolves.  This is a nightly thing.  Bran has spent dangerous amounts of living and aware time in Summer.  Has it injured him?  

My greatest concern for Jon is any treatment, magic or otherwise, that Melisandre might try to administer.   Let's hope the woods witch gets him 1st.   

[Varysblackfyre321]

10 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

I don't see how having a consciousness within a bonded creature could hurt any human, particularly wargs. Arya, Bran and Jon all dream in their wolves.  This is a nightly thing.  Bran has spent dangerous amounts of living and aware time in Summer.  Has it injured him?  

My greatest concern for Jon is any treatment, magic or otherwise, that Melisandre might try to administer.   Let's hope the woods witch gets him 1st.   

But there is a still a link to them when they warg back no? A connection. And Jojen warns Bran he can not warg into summer for such long stretches else he become less and less human(or wanting to be).

[bemused]

OK, I can't resist .

I think there are distinct signs that Jon is not dead and that he will not go mad, but will more fully display the battle madness of a GRRM version of an Úlfhéðinn (Ulfhedinn) - a wolf berserker, when he truly bonds with Ghost ... an event which I suspect will be sudden and is imminent. Early signs have been shown throughout the books, getting stronger as the story progresses and as Jon grows closer to Ghost.

I laid  my thoughts out (including a dissection of the assassination attempt) and had helpful discussion with others in this archived thread :

If it turns out I'm right, it's quite possible Jon's Targaryen blood nudges his Stark/wolf blood more strongly in this direction.

ETA: And if I'm right, it may been a good thing that Jon has avoided a full bond with Ghost until he became mature enough to handle it and had access to wildling knowledge and experience close at hand.

[WildlingWitch]

7 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

He's doing that because he wants find out their weaknesses. Because you know knowledge is power and the less you know of your enemy the less power you have over them.

 

I agree that's what I say in my post

We as readers know that Jon is doing what's right, 'To defeat your enemy you have to know your enemy' Jons enemy just happens to be dead. That doesn't change the fact that there are characters in the book that won't understand that and see Jon as going slightly mad.  Remember his conversation with Septon Cellador
 

Quote

 

Septon Cellador paled. "Seven save us." Wine dribbled down his chin in a red line. "Lord Commander, wights are monstrous, unnatural creatures. Abominations before the eyes of the gods. You … you cannot mean to try to talk with them?"

"Can they talk?" asked Jon Snow. "I think not, but I cannot claim to know. Monsters they may be, but they were men before they died. How much remains? The one I slew was intent on killing Lord Commander Mormont. Plainly it remembered who he was and where to find him." Maester Aemon would have grasped his purpose, Jon did not doubt; Sam Tarly would have been terrified, but he would have understood as well. "My lord father used to tell me that a man must know his enemies. We understand little of the wights and less about the Others. We need to learn."

 

 

[Lord Varys]

10 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Do you think they'll try to expel the free folk from NW land?

It really depends. Marsh's tears and him killing Jon 'for the Watch' strongly indicate that the final nail in Jon's coffin was his reaction to the Pink Letter. Clydas likely gave the letter to Marsh's gang before Jon read it, and they made their preparations to kill him should he indeed answer Ramsay's provocation the way he did.

But that is essentially an internal Night's Watch matter. Marsh and his gang do not like the wildlings, but now they are there. They have to deal with them. If they are not complete morons - which they aren't - they won't attack them unless they have to. So a possible smart approach would be to secure the hostages so that they have the upper hand and then offer Tormund and the other wildlings some kind of terms or a pretty good deal.

What that could be would depend on what they want to do. They could offer Tormund to go along with Hardhome expedition - that way they get him beyond the Wall again where he'll most likely die. They could offer them to continue to remain at the Wall under the terms Jon gave them - help in the defense of the Wall.

My personal guess is that the majority of the wildlings will see Jon's death as a 'you get out of jail' free card - their loyalty is strictly personal. They made a deal with Jon - with Jon gone, there is no longer a deal. So they are free to do whatever they want again. And now that they are south of the Wall they are really free to go down farther south. And that's what they wanted all along. They followed Mance because Mance promised them to lead them across the Wall, to safety. That was the purpose that tied them together. Now they are finally there, and nobody can force them to continue the (futile) fight against the Others.

Some of them might also want to avenge Jon Snow - and perhaps even succeed at that. But once that's done then they will have no reason to remain at the Wall. Those people have no discipline and no common purpose aside from the desire to leave their lands and run away from the Others. So that's what they are likely to do.

I mean, the very idea that the wildlings would suddenly become disciplined fighters, taking the place of Night's Watch after they are gone is pretty ridiculous. Even the average man of the Seven Kingdoms has to swear a solemn vow and fear very severe repercussions when breaking to summon up the determination/conviction to serve at the Wall. Why on earth should the wildlings do that when they are now in relative safety and their entire culture is pretty much anti-authoritarian. Even if they wanted to continue the fight against the Others they would not be able to organize the whole thing.

People usually think a resurrected Jon is going to pull off that miracle - but quite frankly - what would the point be of killing him if the man just continued to do the thing he did while he was still alive? Prior to his death Jon was able to get the wildlings and the Watch to work together. He was making progress there. The author would only kill Jon for the purpose of dramatically changing the story at the Wall.

Even if Jon came back very quickly after his death - which I don't think is likely going to happen - he is not likely going to be in a condition or mindset to continue where he left of. Not to mention that the whole experience with the wights is not making it likely that Jon's return from death is going to be seen as a positive miracle by the people who have firsthand experiences with the Others and wights. Who is to say that a resurrected Jon Snow is going to be seen as a good guy? Perhaps he can hide his blue eyes somehow?

I mean, just take a look at board discussion on Melisandre prior to ADwD. Back then, when we didn't have her POV yet, many people suspected her of being an evil agent of the Others, deliberately leading Stannis astray, etc. If the readers could have such ideas about her, then people in the books could also have severe doubts about the allegiances and 'magical nature' of a resurrected Jon Snow...

[Free Northman Reborn]

15 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

It really depends. Marsh's tears and him killing Jon 'for the Watch' strongly indicate that the final nail in Jon's coffin was his reaction to the Pink Letter. Clydas likely gave the letter to Marsh's gang before Jon read it, and they made their preparations to kill him should he indeed answer Ramsay's provocation the way he did.

But that is essentially an internal Night's Watch matter. Marsh and his gang do not like the wildlings, but now they are there. They have to deal with them. If they are not complete morons - which they aren't - they won't attack them unless they have to. So a possible smart approach would be to secure the hostages so that they have the upper hand and then offer Tormund and the other wildlings some kind of terms or a pretty good deal.

What that could be would depend on what they want to do. They could offer Tormund to go along with Hardhome expedition - that way they get him beyond the Wall again where he'll most likely die. They could offer them to continue to remain at the Wall under the terms Jon gave them - help in the defense of the Wall.

My personal guess is that the majority of the wildlings will see Jon's death as a 'you get out of jail' free card - their loyalty is strictly personal. They made a deal with Jon - with Jon gone, there is no longer a deal. So they are free to do whatever they want again. And now that they are south of the Wall they are really free to go down farther south. And that's what they wanted all along. They followed Mance because Mance promised them to lead them across the Wall, to safety. That was the purpose that tied them together. Now they are finally there, and nobody can force them to continue the (futile) fight against the Others.

Some of them might also want to avenge Jon Snow - and perhaps even succeed at that. But once that's done then they will have no reason to remain at the Wall. Those people have no discipline and no common purpose aside from the desire to leave their lands and run away from the Others. So that's what they are likely to do.

I mean, the very idea that the wildlings would suddenly become disciplined fighters, taking the place of Night's Watch after they are gone is pretty ridiculous. Even the average man of the Seven Kingdoms has to swear a solemn vow and fear very severe repercussions when breaking to summon up the determination/conviction to serve at the Wall. Why on earth should the wildlings do that when they are now in relative safety and their entire culture is pretty much anti-authoritarian. Even if they wanted to continue the fight against the Others they would not be able to organize the whole thing.

People usually think a resurrected Jon is going to pull off that miracle - but quite frankly - what would the point be of killing him if the man just continued to do the thing he did while he was still alive? Prior to his death Jon was able to get the wildlings and the Watch to work together. He was making progress there. The author would only kill Jon for the purpose of dramatically changing the story at the Wall.

Even if Jon came back very quickly after his death - which I don't think is likely going to happen - he is not likely going to be in a condition or mindset to continue where he left of. Not to mention that the whole experience with the wights is not making it likely that Jon's return from death is going to be seen as a positive miracle by the people who have firsthand experiences with the Others and wights. Who is to say that a resurrected Jon Snow is going to be seen as a good guy? Perhaps he can hide his blue eyes somehow?

I mean, just take a look at board discussion on Melisandre prior to ADwD. Back then, when we didn't have her POV yet, many people suspected her of being an evil agent of the Others, deliberately leading Stannis astray, etc. If the readers could have such ideas about her, then people in the books could also have severe doubts about the allegiances and 'magical nature' of a resurrected Jon Snow...

Well, why would you assume that a resurrected Jon would continue doing what he was doing before? He can be resurrected and have had an epiphany about the radical new course of action he has to follow to save the world, and that this does not consist of sitting around on a block of Ice at the edge of the world, with less than 500 remaining rapists, murderers and thieves clad in black.

Of COURSE the story at the Wall is going to change dramatically after Jon awakes. But that does not mean that the wildlings just scatter into Westeros, leaving the full book spent on getting them South of the Wall as a meaningless dead end. Far more likely is that a resurrected Jon Snow is seen as some kind of god in their eyes, they become his "Fremen/Aiel", Davos brings Rickon with 5000 Skagosi at his back to Castle Black just in time to join them, and Jon starts building his army for the War of the Dawn. By the end of Winds the entire North, and perhaps the 20k sellswords Massey is bringing back is added to Jon's force, with the Riverlords regaining their lands and together with Sansa and the Vale joining him.

By the conclusion of the series we then have two powerblocs in Westeros, with Jon leading the Northern half and a victorious but battle scarred Daenerys ruling the Southern half. With them then having to join forces - brokered by Tyrion - to face the Others together.

Hmmm...sound familiar?

[Corvo the Crow]

It is not being a Targ that makes you go mad. Unless Joffrey is some secret Targaryen(which I think is more likely than Tyrion being one), it is the incest and even then it has a 50/50 chance for the tossed coin to show the mad side. Worth mentioning though, is that Jon also has some sort of "madness" on his maternal ancestors too.

12 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

That's kinda a leap man. Oberyn's one stab could have missed the vital organs and Gregore immediately go medical attention  to prevent him from just bleeding out right there. Jon was not so lucky.

Jon is in a very cold area, which would help him survive. Lower the temperature slower the metabolism. Operating rooms are below room temperature just for that reason.

[Megorova]

19 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Targaryen madness isn't a really thing in general. Count how many "mad kings" thereve been in all there times as kings in Westeroes you'll get what 5 at most. None-monarch Targaryians not that much either.

Actually there were more crazy Targaryens than readers think. The thing is, Targaryens had several kinds of madness, and it were all sorts of mental instability, obsessions, intellectual or emotional inferiority, not just agressive behavior. Also those Targaryens that were described as meak or simple minded.

1. Maegor I.
2. Aegon II.
3. Jaehaera, daughter of Aegon II.
4. Aemond One-eye, Kinslayer.
5. Gael the Winter child, daughter of Jaehaerys I and Alysanne (and maybe her sister Viserra).
6. Baelor I, the Blessed.
7. Aerys I.
8. Aegon IV.
9. Rhaegel, son of Daeron II.
10. Rhaegels' daughter Aelora.
11. Aerion, brother of Aegon V.
12. Daeron, brother of Aegon V.
13. Vaella, daughter of Daeron.
14. Aerys II.
15. Viserys, son of Aerys II.

Thus out of 17 (16 official, and one claimant - Viserys) Targaryen Kings there was 7 crazy. That's 41%.

As Barristan Selmy said to Dany: "The Targaryens have always danced too close to madness. King Jaehaerys once told me that madness and greatness are two sides of the same coin. Every time a Targaryen is born, the gods toss a coin in the air and the world holds its breath to see how it will land."

For people, furthermore for one of Targaryens, to say something like that, there probably was even more of crazy Targaryens, than those 15 that I listed.

[Dorian Martell's son]

23 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

This is not a troll thread people. 

I know some people like theorize that Dany is going mad (because of the misconception Targaryians are prone to madness),but I feel people don't really consider whether or not his death and his possible warging into ghost will effect him mentally

He is already been dead and heartbroken. So no, he won't go insane, and it isn't a mis-conception. Targ insanity is legendary 

[Tagganaro]

20 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

The wildlings(at least the ones with Tormund) generally do not want to fight. They want to live no?They like Jon but they also liked Mance but when Stannis burned him (who they thought was him*), they didn't do anything.  And Jon was massively unpopular to the point I'd be surprised I'd be surprised if there are any more than a handful of brothers who even like Jon. 

I don't know where you get the impression the wildlings with Tormund don't want to fight- I would guess most of them are the same warriors who were just extremely excited to follow Jon to Winterfell to go risk their lives to rescue Mance/kill Ramsay.  They do want to fight, and badly.  They were not present for Mance's burning and had no say there.  Jon is not "massively unpopular" among the NW brothers either.  He has the support of most, if not all, the rangers throughout ADWD.

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The NW is in no real danger. People constantly forget that Castle Black is not the Watch. Even if the wildlings killed every men there, this would have no effect on the other castles, especially not Eastwatch and the Shadow Tower. It is not as if many sworn brothers are still at Castle Black, anyway. Not after Mormonts ranging, the Battle at the Bridge of Skulls, Styr's attack on Castle Black, and the fight against Mance. And after Jon's decision to man many of the other castles.

It is not that those wildlings have a plan. Some might be willing to avenge Jon, but not all of them. Others will likely jump on the chance to piss on Jon's corpse and the vows they swore him, and make off down south to steal themselves some women and enjoy their life in a warm and sunny place.

How things go after Jon's death is a tough call. If I were Marsh my men would already control the wildlings hostages. That way I'd have them by their balls. Those who'll survive the burning of and or in the Shieldhall, that is. Butchering scores of men shouldn't be that easy if they are drunk and your men are the only ones armed with good steel (as Lord Steward, Marsh should also be able to control the access to the armory).

In any case, the beginning of TWoW will be much more fun if everything goes to hell at the Wall.

Selyse isn't a factor in all that. At least not when it comes to fighting. She has only a very small retinue in addition to the men Stannis left with Melisandre. She might approve of the assassination of Jon - or not. I honestly doubt she'll approve since Marsh isn't likely to protect her and her daughter from the Boltons. Not to mention that Jon was actually killed immediately after he broke his vows to avenge Stannis - and defend both her and her daughter. She may not like him but she must have been aware that he was an ally.

I should have clarified, yes I mean Castle Black and not the Watch in general.  Given that we have never remotely been given any POV insight into Eastwatch and the Shadow Tower, I usually equate the NW with Castle Black or the rangings north of the Wall with brothers from other towers.

I would imagine a good majority of the wildlings would not only be willing, but eager to avenge Jon.  There was a compelling thread a while back about how Jon had essentially become a de facto king of the wildlings, and even if you don't buy that, you can buy that Tormund will be eager to avenge Jon if he can and that Tormund probably has the support of many, if not all of the wildlings there.  Beyond "avenging Jon" though, the wildlings will still be motivated to act through hate of Marsh and the NW, not to mention the attack of Wun Wun (although that's probably pretty minor in the grand scheme of things).  Jon just made a grand speech playing on the wildling soldiers passion to go rescue Mance, from his POV eliciting a load roar of approval and support.  Now you have chief wildling racist hater Bowen Marsh sneak attacking the "general" who was just gonna lead a rescue party to go save your beloved Mance...can't imagine there won't be some very pissed off wildlings out for blood.

I realize Selyse's retinue is small, but I'd still imagine the death of Ser Patrek won't go over too well.  And yes, Bowen Marsh is also the chief Lannister supporter on the NW but I'm not sure Selyse would know that.  In any case, she's gonna be a lot more concerned about Stannis's apparent death and her own safety so yes, I can agree on that.

20 hours ago, divica said:

Don t forget that there are like less than 50 queensmen at castle black and that selise must want to run. I mean, she just heard that stannis died and the boltons want her and her daughter... The last thing in her mind is fighting the watch.

Then mel is either going bananas and try to ressurect stannis, don t believe the PL and hide or appear sudenly and say she can save jon.

The conflict between the wildlings, bowen supporters and jon suporters present at the stabing is the main prob. Either bowen is easily arrested/killed or things could go very bad. And if the wildlings start killing brothers I don t think jon's peace will hold when he awakes.In addition it shows how bad the NW really is. They rebelled against  their last 2 LC... Who would want to be LC?

And jon being dead for a while is a bad idea that became popular. Why would anyone keep jon's body for weeks or months frozen somewhere? And is jon's body supposed to work well after being frozen for so long? I could see him being in a coma/fever dream for a while, but not more than that...

yes, agree on Stannis/Selyse, although 2 major things are still the death of Ser Patrek and Shireen/Val.  There's gotta be some payoff to Val freaking the hell out about Shireen, don't know if she will take this opportunity and the wildlings will take this opportunity to try and kill the "unclean" child.

yeah, I mean this is what I'm saying.  There's no way Tormund and the wildlings don't immediately look to attack/kill Bowen and the conspirators, and I don't see a way where that doesn't lead to all-out conflict.  

Jon being dead/out of commission for a while is just something that makes sense to me.  GRRM doesn't necessarily seem like the kind of writer who would go for a cheap cliffhanger that's resolved immediately...I would think he wants to play this out.  

[Varysblackfyre321]

37 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Actually there were more crazy Targaryens than readers think. The thing is, Targaryens had several kinds of madness, and it were all sorts of mental instability, obsessions, intellectual or emotional inferiority, not just agressive behavior. Also those Targaryens that were described as meak or simple minded.

1. Maegor I.
2. Aegon II.
3. Jaehaera, daughter of Aegon II.
4. Aemond One-eye, Kinslayer.
5. Gael the Winter child, daughter of Jaehaerys I and Alysanne (and maybe her sister Viserra).
6. Baelor I, the Blessed.
7. Aerys I.
8. Aegon IV.
9. Rhaegel, son of Daeron II.
10. Rhaegels' daughter Aelora.
11. Aerion, brother of Aegon V.
12. Daeron, brother of Aegon V.
13. Vaella, daughter of Daeron.
14. Aerys II.
15. Viserys, son of Aerys II.

Thus out of 17 (16 official, and one claimant - Viserys) Targaryen Kings there was 7 crazy. That's 41%.

As Barristan Selmy said to Dany: "The Targaryens have always danced too close to madness. King Jaehaerys once told me that madness and greatness are two sides of the same coin. Every time a Targaryen is born, the gods toss a coin in the air and the world holds its breath to see how it will land."

For people, furthermore for one of Targaryens, to say something like that, there probably was even more of crazy Targaryens, than those 15 that I listed.

Ok first having an obsession, having a feeling of emotional inferioty, intellectual inferioty  are not in themselves madness. Maegor was cruel and ruthless. So is Tywin. Neither is mad because of it. Baelor was extremely devout and only started acting really insane after having bitten a hundred times by snakes. Aegon IV was simply a drunken obese lout on his death bed legitized all his bastards.  He was overly sentimental at the end of his life and wanted to make amends with most of his children, he wasn't  "mad". Viserys was a narchassit and pervert but not really mad. How is Aegon II mad?

[Varysblackfyre321]

2 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

I don't know where you get the impression the wildlings with Tormund don't want to fight- I would guess most of them are the same warriors who were just extremely excited to follow Jon to Winterfell to go risk their lives to rescue Mance/kill Ramsay.  They do want to fight, and badly

Sorry I misspoke- I meant to say "at least not" Tormund's brew follow Tormund and if they won't mind getting their weapons wet with blood-everyone else, the women, children, and old and weak(mind or spirit), they didn't come to risk their lives-they just want to stay alive. Where do you get that he's going to be massively popular with the Rangers even after disclosing he let the turn-coat and mass murderer go apparently to fetch Jon's sister? Also, aren't most of the people among the brothers  who'd be loyal to not at at CB? A lot of their brothers died because of Mance's invasion.