U.S. Politics: Girthers Vs. Anti-Girthers

[Zorral]

Gary Young reported lengthy, in depth examinations of Muncie, Indiana before the election, in the Guardian.  Now he's gone back to see what if anything in a year has changed.

The old supporters say nothing bad has happened or even happened at all.

Others, well they see it quite differently, particularly those struggling with health care providers an payments, particularly people with special needs children.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/22/trump-great-job-muncie-indiana-year-election

 

[Sivin]

Well, there goes the resistance. I actually think punting was the right play here but dear god did I find new ways to be disappointed by Democrat Senators. 

It's not just that they're cowards, it's the new and innovative ways to squeeze under the bar no matter how low to the ground it is set.

ETA: Well, I'm going to go kill myself i think. Jake Tapper can't even be bothered to refute the lies anymore, he's just got his panel lamenting the meanness of the Trump WH. 

[aeu]

3 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I'm not sure they are.  I think they are too worried about losing the messaging war that they want to get out of this shutdown.

 

Agreed with this.  I don't think they trust McConnell, they are just looking for a way out. At the very least, enough of them are.

I also have to disagree that Democrats were winning the message war.  Republicans' basic message of "Dems are shutting down the government over protection for illegal immigrants" is compelling and also, basically correct (save a potential disagreement about whether Dreamers should be considered illegal immigrants).

Democrats did get rolled, because they tried to support an impossible position.  To me, it was very clear from the beginning that they would not have achieved anything substantial, especially considering they are dealing with comic-book level villains who are literally willing to kill children to score a few political points.

I utterly despise the Republican leadership, and support the Democrats out of principle.  And I do think they have the moral high ground on many (if not all) of the hot-botton issues.  But ultimately many of these things are subjective.  How you prioritize them, and what you are willing to give up to achieve them are even more subjective.  More and more, Democratic party seems to support fight for positions out of principle, even when those issues are not necessarily priorities for the electorate at large (or even for most of the Democratic voters).

There is something to be said for standing on principle (and honestly, I personally applaud the Democrats).  But then, you cannot complain when you find yourself in the minority, with limited to no ability to basically achieve anything. 

[aceluby]

You guys are really blowing this deal out of proportion.  It's 21 days.  I know it feels like a decade in Trump-years, but this is a really good deal for Democrats who get to claim CHIP as a win for their efforts.  Now they can focus on DACA and cash in those 'assurances' or else they don't get votes on any more spending.

[Shryke]

1 hour ago, Morpheus said:

I think the Dems were ahead in messaging. No one was buying that the Republicans and Trump, more importantly, were not to blame. just this morning all i saw was Trump getting slammed for waffling and a lack of leadership. CHIP was always going to get funded, they played right into Republican hands. They demoralized an energized base, they handed McConnell, Ryan, and Trump a win. There is no reason to think they will be more resilient in a few weeks, Republicans act in bad faith and Schumer has not proven himself to be shrewd enough to actually get anything from them. Threating a second shutdown in a few weeks will play much worse for Democrats, “Mitch McConnell is a liar” won’t be enough. Already the narrative is changing from Republican disarry, to Democrats making a stink for nothing.

 

WTF Republican party are you thinking of? They would kill CHIP in a second. Fucking Paul Ryan has sexual fantasies about doing it as he masturbates. They freed the other hostages and the fight is fully able to be continued in another few weeks.

And the Democrats were not winning this messaging war from anything I saw. The Media was all set to swallow the GOP narrative.

[S John]

17 minutes ago, aceluby said:

You guys are really blowing this deal out of proportion.  It's 21 days.  I know it feels like a decade in Trump-years, but this is a really good deal for Democrats who get to claim CHIP as a win for their efforts.  Now they can focus on DACA and cash in those 'assurances' or else they don't get votes on any more spending.

I tend to agree here.  I was actually a little concerned that the Dem's were overplaying their hand a little bit on this current shutdown.  Now they got CHIP out of the way and assurances from the R's that there will be a good faith negotiation on DACA.  Next time around they'll be able to take a firmer stand w/ those assurances in hand.  

[Shryke]

3 minutes ago, S John said:

I tend to agree here.  I was actually a little concerned that the Dem's were overplaying their hand a little bit on this current shutdown.  Now they got CHIP out of the way and assurances from the R's that there will be a good faith negotiation on DACA.  Next time around they'll be able to take a firmer stand w/ those assurances in hand.  

With CHIP gone the focus can switch solely to the DACA issue. You can hammer them with the Graham/Durbin deal and are more likely to win the fight in the media over who is responsible. Make it all about Republican intransigence. "We have a deal right here, but Trump won't sign it!" Makes you look a lot better.

[Ormond]

32 minutes ago, WinterFox said:

 

ETA: Well, I'm going to go kill myself i think. Jake Tapper can't even be bothered to refute the lies anymore, he's just got his panel lamenting the meanness of the Trump WH. 

I know you aren't completely serious, but contemplating suicide because of any one day's performance by any TV newscaster is the definition of overreaction.

[Martell Spy]

Quote

Was this a clever way of ending a shutdown they would have been blamed for while securing children’s health coverage and bringing DACA—a subject on which Democrats have public support when it’s polled in isolation—one step closer to a vote? Or was it an absurdly early capitulation in which the party betrayed its moral obligation to Dreamers in return for nothing more than a flimsy agreement with an unreliable partner so not to look as if they were hurting the military? Progressives online, even some with similar ideological priors who generally tend to agree with each other, are truly split.

Progressives Split on Whether Democrats Made a Savvy Deal or Are Craven, Spineless Failures

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/01/democrats-deal-surrender-or-victory.html

 

[Morpheus]

34 minutes ago, Shryke said:

WTF Republican party are you thinking of? They would kill CHIP in a second. Fucking Paul Ryan has sexual fantasies about doing it as he masturbates. They freed the other hostages and the fight is fully able to be continued in another few weeks.

And the Democrats were not winning this messaging war from anything I saw. The Media was all set to swallow the GOP narrative.

The reason they didn’t put CHIP to vote months ago was precisely so it could be used as an bargaining chip. Paul Ryan wants poor kids to die for sure, but There are plenty of other Republicans who recognize the bad optics. CHIP was on the table last week, so it wasn’t some last minute sweetner. CHIP is not a bitter pill for Republicans to swallow, especially compared to DACA.

From what I saw, the media was hammering Republicans and Trump hard all weekend or at least lamenting disfunction on both sides. I saw very little acceptance of Republican messaging outside of FOX. 

[Sivin]

30 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I know you aren't completely serious, but contemplating suicide because of any one day's performance by any TV newscaster is the definition of overreaction.

Very astute. 

The sentiment stands though. I fully acknowledge the tactical considerations that went into this decision, but it was just proven incontrovertibly that Democrats cannot even hold the line for a week. 

At this time I wonder if the best outcome we could hope for is that the DACA people get deported and that somehow they can be brought home in three years. Doesn't seem likely, and by then what's the point?

I will reiterate, it isn't the striking of a deal that is so damning. It is how limp the stance was from the outset. I was expecting something at least but it looks like the only thing to have been accomplished is hanging Graham and Flake out to dry. They have no reason to ever stick their necks out again, and it would be stupid to ask it of them. 

[Mudguard]

Democrats had to cave because they would have been blamed for an extended government shutdown.  The Republicans were able to round up at least 50 votes, so the only reason there was a shutdown was because Democrats filibustered the budget bill.  I don't see how you can effectively blame Republicans for a shutdown when the cause of the shutdown is a filibuster by Democrats.

This is going to play out the same way on Feb 8th, if the Republicans can once again get enough votes in the House and at least 50 votes in the Senate.  Only thing Democrats can do is negotiate from a position of little power, and filibuster for as long as they can stomach shutting down the government, which isn't going to be for very long.  I don't think Democrats are going to be able to extract much from Republicans.  Just something that already has widespread support like the CHIP program.

Democrats need to take over the House and/or Senate to have any real leverage.

[Sivin]

Ugh, and now Wolf is parading Democrats through the streets to take their licks. Bill Nelson has done everything but clip his own nuts on camera at this point. 

Again, it's fine to withdraw to superior positions. But don't leave all of your equipment behind just because the enemy keeps calling you names. 

[DMC]

It's plainly inaccurate to suggest the Dems "got" CHIP from the weekend shutdown.  This is the same deal the House passed last Thursday, except only funded until Feb 8 instead of Feb 16 - and the exact same deal McConnell offered them on Friday.  All the Dems "got" were McConnell's assurances, so unless you take a lot of stock in McConnell's promises, it's incredibly difficult to say the Dems didn't blink.  And blinking so quickly makes it that much more likely supporters and opponents alike will assume they'll blink again in a couple weeks, which hurts their bargaining position.

As others including have said, including myself, the Dems had the weaker message; or at least the GOP had the simpler message.  Still, I would have preferred the Dems stuck it out at least a few more days to make sure they indeed were losing the blame game with the public.  I don't see how that was clear as of yet.  I suppose they may have internals that are very scary, but I strongly suspect this is just another case of congressional Dems being feckless and skittish.

[LongRider]

On ‎1‎/‎19‎/‎2018 at 11:58 AM, Pony Queen Jace said:

Jace only cares if he paid her with campaign funds that he loaned himself.

That's a crime

Well, well, get your popcorn poppers warmed up.

Quote

A watchdog group filed a pair of complaints on Monday alleging that a $130,000 payment reportedly made to a pornographic film actress who claims to have had an affair with Donald Trump violated campaign finance laws.

In submissions to the Justice Department and the Federal Election Commission, Common Cause said the alleged payment to Stephanie Clifford — who uses the stage name Stormy Daniels — amounted to an in-kind donation to Trump's presidential campaign that should have been publicly disclosed in its official reports.

An attorney for Common Cause, Paul Ryan, said the payment appeared to be hush money. He compared the situation to the series of events that resulted in the prosecution of former Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) over nearly $1 million in payments allegedly made to cover up an affair he had with videographer Rielle Hunter during his 2008 presidential bid.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/22/stormy-daniels-trump-payment-illegal-donation-357250

[Larry of the Lawn]

2 hours ago, aeu said:

Agreed with this.  I don't think they trust McConnell, they are just looking for a way out. At the very least, enough of them are.

I also have to disagree that Democrats were winning the message war.  Republicans' basic message of "Dems are shutting down the government over protection for illegal immigrants" is compelling and also, basically correct (save a potential disagreement about whether Dreamers should be considered illegal immigrants).

Democrats did get rolled, because they tried to support an impossible position.  To me, it was very clear from the beginning that they would not have achieved anything substantial, especially considering they are dealing with comic-book level villains who are literally willing to kill children to score a few political points.

I utterly despise the Republican leadership, and support the Democrats out of principle.  And I do think they have the moral high ground on many (if not all) of the hot-botton issues.  But ultimately many of these things are subjective.  How you prioritize them, and what you are willing to give up to achieve them are even more subjective.  More and more, Democratic party seems to support fight for positions out of principle, even when those issues are not necessarily priorities for the electorate at large (or even for most of the Democratic voters).

There is something to be said for standing on principle (and honestly, I personally applaud the Democrats).  But then, you cannot complain when you find yourself in the minority, with limited to no ability to basically achieve anything. 

Re: bolded:

That may be true in general but not on DACA.  There is broad public support for dreamers here and immigration reform is one of the fronts on which Trump's xenophobic racist war is being fought, so it's a natural place to take a stand.  

 

[Mexal]

 

[Jace, Extat]

27 minutes ago, Nasty LongRider said:

Well, well, get your popcorn poppers warmed up.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/22/stormy-daniels-trump-payment-illegal-donation-357250

Why are we even talking about this still? It doesn't matter. R voters already think that the billionaires should be thinking for them, they don't give a damn about campaign financing laws.

All of this is just a bug splattered against the windshield as a semi-truck carrying undiluted fascism has crossed the median and is in our lane.

Who in god's name is going to be talking about a hooker when the only agency left that wants to do its job is being dismantled brick by brick?

Reopening the government is good, but now Nunes is going to release this memo full of nonsense and that's the last act. Nobody is going to be talking about the B story arc of sharkfucking Time magazines while getting pissed on when the credits roll.

[lokisnow]

The trump admin slapped a 30% tariff on imported solar panels today.

this after gutting tax credits in the big tax scam bill, and rolled back the clean power plan.

estimates are about 23,000 Americans will lose their jobs installing solar as a result of the tariffs, but American panel manufacturers might hire a total of ten or twenty new employees, so it all balances out, amiright?

[LongRider]

11 minutes ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

Who in god's name is going to be talking about a hooker when the only agency left that wants to do its job is being dismantled brick by brick?

Porn actress, get your facts right.  It's the money and the attempt to hush up something no one cared about.  Small things can bring big things down sometimes.  Will this do it?  No, probably not, but if it irritates and bothers Trump then hey, sue him for violation of campaign laws, why not?  Perhaps Daniels will be Trump's emails.