U.S. Politics: Girthers Vs. Anti-Girthers

[Jace, Extat]

1 minute ago, Fragile Bird said:

Seven shot at a school in Kentucky. One reported death.

i wonder if this will get more than a moment of attention.

What exactly do you want to happen?

What exactly do you think will happen?

[Mexal]

3 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Seven shot at a school in Kentucky. One reported death.

i wonder if this will get more than a moment of attention.

You know it won't. America is desensitized to gun violence. It won't change. Ever.

[Gorn]

1 hour ago, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

I have to comment on this. I live in PA-18 (Murphy's district). If only the maps would be ready by the special election in March. This district is so gerrymandered that Democrats cannot win it, despite outnumbering Republicans by over 70,000. 

This might be a dumb question, but: why? If there are 70 000 Democrats more within the district, your problem is turnout, not gerrymandering. If the Democratic and Republican turnouts are the same, and all Democrats vote for a Democratic candidate, the Democratic candidate will win.

[Maithanet]

Just now, Gorn said:

This might be a dumb question, but: why? If there are 70 000 Democrats more within the district, your problem is turnout, not gerrymandering. If the Democratic and Republican turnouts are the same, and all Democrats vote for a Democratic candidate, the Democratic candidate will win.

Presumably this is one of those areas where there are a lot of people who call themselves Democrats but consistently vote Republican.  Often areas with large union and former union populations do this.  Or where the "independents" are very Republican leaning.  Sometimes both of those groups can still be reached and won in a good Democratic year.  Sometimes they cannot, and the numbers hide that this district is in fact very unfriendly territory.

But I don't know anything about the specifics of this district. 

[OldGimletEye]

Yes, the Republican Party will continue to talk about it's "pro growth market based solutions" and then be completely clueless why everyone else snickers, horse laughs, and rolls their eyes, at their buffoonery.

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/01/theres-no-such-thing-as-populist-conservative-economic-policy/

Quote

Over at National Review, Peter Spiliakos writes that Sen. Tom Cotton’s sterling hardline performance in the immigration standoff has strengthened his chance of being president someday:

He was the most effective Trump surrogate and has earned the “fighter” reputation that Cruz wanted so desperately. He needs a broader populist economic policy to go along with his support for transitioning to a system of high-skill immigration. He should work with Senator Mike Lee on pro-parent tax policy and with James Capretta on health care. A populism that is only about immigration isn’t populist.

This is a real question, not snark: what “populist” economic policies could a Republican nominee for president possibly support? “

 

See for instance:

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/01/the-gops-biggest-charter-school-experiment-just-imploded/

Quote

The west side of Columbus, Ohio, is a flat expanse of one-story houses, grimy convenience stores, and dark barrooms, and William Lager, in his business wear, cut an unusual figure at the Waffle House on Wilson Road. Every day, almost without fail, he took a seat in a booth, ordered his bottomless coffee, and set to work. Some days he sat for hours, so long that he’d outlast waitress Chandra Filichia’s seven-hour shift and stay on long into the night, making plans and scribbling them down on napkins.

 

[Jace, Extat]

Has everyone heard about how Susanne Colins and her talking stick ended the shutdown!?!

I remember when I was in the second grade too.

[DMC]

53 minutes ago, Gorn said:

This might be a dumb question, but: why? If there are 70 000 Democrats more within the district, your problem is turnout, not gerrymandering. If the Democratic and Republican turnouts are the same, and all Democrats vote for a Democratic candidate, the Democratic candidate will win.

The district is SW Pennsylvania then kind of cups around the bottom of Pittsburgh hitting its predominately white suburbs.  It is overwhelmingly white (96%) and skews very old leading to an R+11 spread.  Compare that with its neighboring 14th district, which is all of the city of Pittsburgh and its black and Democratic suburbs, that is only 74% white and D+17.  The party registration discrepancy is similar to neighboring West Virginia - which is still 49% Democrat and only 30% Republican, but obviously votes for the latter.  As Maith said, these are old-school Democrats that actually embody Trump voters these days.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

Seven shot at a school in Kentucky. One reported death.

i wonder if this will get more than a moment of attention.

HAHAHAHA.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

No. I posted about a school shooting like a month or two ago and then was told that it had actually happened a few days before I had even heard about it. As a society, we don’t care anymore. Freedom isn’t free, and sometimes innocent kids have to die so we can keep our peashooters.

[DMC]

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Freedom isn’t free, and sometimes innocent kids have to die so we can keep our peashooters.

Nope, freedom costs a buck o' five.  When you can buy 4 or 5 rounds instead, where's the comparison?

[Jace, Extat]

Quote

 

14 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

HAHAHAHA.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

No. I posted about a school shooting like a month or two ago and then was told that it had actually happened a few days before I had even heard about it. As a society, we don’t care anymore. Freedom isn’t free, and sometimes innocent kids have to die so we can keep our peashooters.

A school got shot up in Texas yesterday dude.

And I knew hours later too

[Maithanet]

WaPo article on the Future of the Republican Party post-Trump (whenever that is).

Quote

The Trump era will end, and a Republican Party that has been subsumed to the president’s personality, temper and raucous base will need to figure out a path forward.

What will that look like? Will it simply slip back into the Republican Party we had under George W. Bush? The one we had when Mitt Romney was the party’s presidential nominee candidate in 2012, when the underlying frictions of class and demography were still just emerging? Or will it look like something new, reshaped by Trump permanently?

We asked five Republicans who’ve been skeptical of Trump’s presidency for their thoughts in in-person interviews and over email. We focused on two questions: Will the Republican Party simply revert to the party we saw a decade ago? If not, what will it look like?

I would like to note that I really disliked this article.  I am very interested in the topic, but I think that a sample of 5 Never Trumpers is a terrible choice to answer the question of the future of the Republican Party.  Of COURSE they think that Trump was a misstep and that the Republican party is doomed if they follow that path.  What else are they gonna say? 

So I ask my fellow boarders, where do you think the Republican party is going, and how will it look once Trump is gone?

My thoughts:  

 - The post-2012 plan of moderating on immigration and reaching out to Latinos is dead.  Trump killed it.  The Republican party may be able to hold on to a segment of Republican identifying Latinos in Texas and Florida, but they've poisoned the well on winning the Latino vote.

 - Republicans will become even more the party of Rural America.  That means global isolationism, white nationalism and appealing to white working class voters at the expense of everyone else.  This strategy gives them significant power in the Senate, where holding 50 seats remains possible/likely for decades.  In the House and the Electoral College, geographic sorting helps them some, but this advantage only goes so far. 

- It is possible to combat them that Trump's dalliances with authoritarianism will only grow.  I fear the day that any President pulls an Andrew Jackson and says "why do I have to listen to the Supreme Court?"  I have little doubt that Fox News and the Republican Senate would provide cover, so impeachment might be off the table.  And if so, that's prettymuch the end of democracy. 

[Sivin]

Majority Whip in the House just said that the Senate promises mean nothing to him and they won't bring up any "amnesty"

 

We are FUCKED

[Ice Queen]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Presumably this is one of those areas where there are a lot of people who call themselves Democrats but consistently vote Republican.  Often areas with large union and former union populations do this.  Or where the "independents" are very Republican leaning.  Sometimes both of those groups can still be reached and won in a good Democratic year.  Sometimes they cannot, and the numbers hide that this district is in fact very unfriendly territory.

But I don't know anything about the specifics of this district. 

Turnout is part of it, to be sure. When you know you're vote doesn't count, it's easy to stay home. But the way the lines are drawn makes no sense. Your next door neighbor could be in a different district. It also includes a lot of rural areas and the median age is old. Berks County is even worse. And in one part of Philly, you can cross a street and go through 3 different congressional districts. It's insane. Edit: The PA Constitution states that municipalities should not be broken up unless absolutely necessary. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-pennsylvania/pennsylvania-court-orders-new-congressional-map-due-to-gerrymandering-idUSKBN1FB2N8

Out of 18 seats at the state level, Republicans hold 13 despite there being many more registered Democrats than Republicans. About 900,000 more. If the lines were drawn fairly, that would never happen, even with low Democratic turnout. 

The blue collar Dems got suckered by Trump's "we're going to open coal mines and steel mills". Nobody around here younger than 50 ever worked in a mill or a mine. Those jobs are NEVER coming back. I truly hope they don't make that mistake again. We have a young guy running up against an old man who makes Roy Moore look mainstream. 

It does beg the question, though, of why white middle class men are so deserving of someone handing them a job, while low income people are lazy and just waiting for a handout. 

They have 3 weeks to redraw that map, which means that it should be done in time for the special election (hopefully). Dems might not win it, but they're going to give the Reeps a run for their money this time. 

Quote

Experts have held up Pennsylvania as one of the most extreme examples of gerrymandering, pointing to bizarrely shaped districts that have earned nicknames like “Goofy kicking Donald Duck.” The Republican-controlled legislature created the current map in 2011, after the 2010 U.S. census.

The gerrymandered lines have been worth two or three additional seats to Pennsylvania Republicans, according to Michael Li, a redistricting expert at New York University.[/quote]

[Ice Queen]

3 hours ago, dmc515 said:

Hey, don't count Lamb out yet.  He was within 3 in the most recent poll with 21% undecided.  

They have 3 weeks to redraw the map. I think we have a chance. 

[Sivin]

6 minutes ago, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

Turnout is part of it, to be sure. When you know you're vote doesn't count, it's easy to stay home. But the way the lines are drawn makes no sense. Your next door neighbor could be in a different district. It also includes a lot of rural areas and the median age is old. Berks County is even worse. And in one part of Philly, you can cross a street and go through 3 different congressional districts. It's insane. Edit: The PA Constitution states that municipalities should not be broken up unless absolutely necessary. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-pennsylvania/pennsylvania-court-orders-new-congressional-map-due-to-gerrymandering-idUSKBN1FB2N8

Out of 18 seats at the state level, Republicans hold 13 despite there being many more registered Democrats than Republicans. About 900,000 more. If the lines were drawn fairly, that would never happen, even with low Democratic turnout. 

The blue collar Dems got suckered by Trump's "we're going to open coal mines and steel mills". Nobody around here younger than 50 ever worked in a mill or a mine. Those jobs are NEVER coming back. I truly hope they don't make that mistake again. We have a young guy running up against an old man who makes Roy Moore look mainstream. 

It does beg the question, though, of why white middle class men are so deserving of someone handing them a job, while low income people are lazy and just waiting for a handout. 

They have 3 weeks to redraw that map, which means that it should be done in time for the special election (hopefully). Dems might not win it, but they're going to give the Reeps a run for their money this time. 

Yeah, Gerrymandering gets straight wacky. I live in the nice part of town (for weird reasons, not because I'm wealthy) and I am part of one of three districts that take bites out of the city on the outskirts where I live, snaking their way around pockets of "urban" centers that are clustered together while the rest of the surrounding counties get a bite at the population apple in ways that won't compromise their white votes. 

It's really kind of interesting. In a "How did the Nazis kill 12 billion million people?" kind of way. 

ETA: Damn, not even Hitler hit the coveted tres comas mark. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

37 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

Nope, freedom costs a buck o' five.  When you can buy 4 or 5 rounds instead, where's the comparison?

Four or five rounds of freedom costs the same as this grapefruit IPA I’ve been on lately. When do I get IPA freedom? When will the Eurocommiefication of IPAs be put to a stop for good?

31 minutes ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

A school got shot up in Texas yesterday dude.

And I knew hours later too

Case in point, this is the first I’m hearing of that and I watch a lot of news (although last night I was watching Wiggins curb stomp the Clippers).

[OldGimletEye]

23 hours ago, Maithanet said:

WaPo article on the Future of the Republican Party post-Trump (whenever that is).

I would like to note that I really disliked this article.  I am very interested in the topic, but I think that a sample of 5 Never Trumpers is a terrible choice to answer the question of the future of the Republican Party.  Of COURSE they think that Trump was a misstep and that the Republican party is doomed if they follow that path.  What else are they gonna say? 

So I ask my fellow boarders, where do you think the Republican party is going, and how will it look once Trump is gone?

My thoughts:  

 - The post-2012 plan of moderating on immigration and reaching out to Latinos is dead.  Trump killed it.  The Republican party may be able to hold on to a segment of Republican identifying Latinos in Texas and Florida, but they've poisoned the well on winning the Latino vote.

 - Republicans will become even more the party of Rural America.  That means global isolationism, white nationalism and appealing to white working class voters at the expense of everyone else.  This strategy gives them significant power in the Senate, where holding 50 seats remains possible/likely for decades.  In the House and the Electoral College, geographic sorting helps them some, but this advantage only goes so far. 

- It is possible to combat them that Trump's dalliances with authoritarianism will only grow.  I fear the day that any President pulls an Andrew Jackson and says "why do I have to listen to the Supreme Court?"  I have little doubt that Fox News and the Republican Senate would provide cover, so impeachment might be off the table.  And if so, that's prettymuch the end of democracy. 

There was always the pro business corporate wing of the Republican Party. These people, were likely more moderate on social issues than the base, like for instance see Edward Conard's comments, which were essentially, "well it looks all the anti-abortion people are dying out. Guess we'll have to find new allies, to keep the profits high." But, they were always willing to footsie with the white nationalist and social conservative crowd, to get their way. I guess they thought they could control them, and then Trump happened and they lost control. In short they played with matches and a can of gasoline and their fingers got burned in the process.

I don't think they will be able to re assert the control they usually had. And now the Republican Party will likely go full blown white nationalist.

Of course this presents an interesting question of where does the more socially moderate Republican Business wing go? Guys like say Mark Cuban or Bloomberg have become become uncomfortable with the Republican Party's rhetoric, though they probably prefer the Republican Party's economic policies. It will be interesting what happens to people like them, as they are seemingly without a party.

[DMC]

5 minutes ago, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

They have 3 weeks to redraw the map. I think we have a chance. 

I think Lamb has a chance without the redraw.  And the decision won't affect the special election.  The last sentence of your Reuters link above:

Quote

The March special election for a vacant U.S. House seat in western Pennsylvania is not affected, the court said.

 

[Maithanet]

3 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

I think Lamb has a chance without the redraw.  And the decision won't affect the special election.  The last sentence of your Reuters link above:

It won't, but if Lamb loses the special election narrowly, he might get another shot at it in November, but this time with a more favorable map. 

[Ice Queen]

1 minute ago, dmc515 said:

I think Lamb has a chance without the redraw.  And the decision won't affect the special election.  The last sentence of your Reuters link above:

 

Yeah, I saw that after I posted. 

I'm obviously very pessimistic, but I'm trying to maintain a little optimism. I've watched my vote not count for anything despite being surrounded by fellow Democrats, and not all of them old. Of course, I live in a municipality that has all of 1,000 residents that borders Beaver County to the north and surrounded by a lot of very wealthy communities. I used to live in one of them, and it was the same there. (Note: Keith Rothfus is the biggest dork you will ever meet. LOL)