Black Crow

Heresy 204; of cabbages, prophecies and kings

402 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, PrettyPig said:

Acutally, I think they are the inversions to them - I touched on that in the TOJ/Mirri's tent comparison.    The bloodrider parallels to the KG are DROGO's bloodriders Haggo, Qotho, and Cohollo.

You must know that I am a big fan of your analysis of the blood magic tent scene, and I can see how Drogo's blood riders would parallel the three Kingsguard, because I agree Khal Drogo is the parallel to King Aerys, however, I don't think this discounts the idea that Dany can also parallel Drogo and Aerys with her three blood riders. Repeating multiples upon multiples. 

What I thought should be investigated is how Dany's blood riders went in different directions,  so couldn't that be an alternate parallel to having the three Kingsguard at the tower of joy, which is only "remembered" in Ned's fever dream? Maybe the men at the tower were only ordinary men and the Kingsguard were actually sent out in separate directions to look for help? I think there is symbolism in what Dany's three blood riders found.

Edited to strike out the parallel of the blood riders - in just this instance - as to why they went in different directions. The tower of joy/magical tent scene would be after they went in different directions. 

Edited by Feather Crystal

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18 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Had the White Bull and the other two been there, let alone at the Trident, they would have kept the gates shut, made a proper fight of it

Well, it's possible, but it wouldn't have been the Kingsguard who made the decision to open the gates or keep them closed.  

It would have been King Aerys, just as it was in the canonical reality.

Now, we know Aerys was explicitly counseled to keep the gates closed by Varys, his spymaster:

Quote

Pycelle convinced the king that his Warden of the West had come to defend him, so he opened the gates. The one time he should have heeded Varys, and he ignored him.

This was a question of whether Tywin could be trusted.  Varys, as spymaster, was a primary source of intel -- it was his basic job and area of expertise, as spymaster -- and Aerys still ignored him.  

The KG had nothing to do with intel or analysis, and would not have been better positioned than Varys to report on Tywin's trustworthiness.  

So I think odds are high Aerys would still have decided to open the gates, whether the three KG were there or not.   

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1 hour ago, PrettyPig said:

However, I definitely like the catch of Dany's bloodriders heading out in different directions to find salvation!   As this happens AFTER her dragons have hatched

What if the Red Waste is a parallel to the Battle at the Trident? I guess it depends how far into the battle Rhaegar's death happened. Was it a bloody mess - a huge bloody defeat? Then the "Red Waste" could be a reference - I'm just spitballing here in case the people on this thread aren't used to how I work through a problem - don't get yer undies in a bind! Anyways, I think it's eerie how one of the blood riders (Aggo) was sent to repair the gate.

Edited by Feather Crystal

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19 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Had the White Bull and the other two been there, let alone at the Trident, they would have kept the gates shut, made a proper fight of it and if the worst came to the worst hustled the King away to safety whether he wanted to go or not.

This is how I took their comments as well--straightforwardly, it's less likely that Jaime is given an opportunity to slay Aerys if those three are present, but I had also taken it that, though Ned's specific question was about the Sack, their answer has broader implications; had they not been "far away," this all would have turned out differently.

Particularly with the Trident, that might be an arrogant point of view, but I don't think it's entirely unfounded; if Arthur Dayne is present, maybe Robert is slain before he ever has a chance to clash with Rhaegar, and the whole momentum and morale of the battle is shifted.

Edited by Matthew.

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20 hours ago, Black Crow said:

I think the straightforward answer is that Jaime Lannister, the youngest and most inexperienced member of the Kings Guard was left in charge of the shop and not only failed to defend the city but was [apparently] complicit in letting his father's army in and then murdering the king himself.

Had the White Bull and the other two been there, let alone at the Trident, they would have kept the gates shut, made a proper fight of it and if the worst came to the worst hustled the King away to safety whether he wanted to go or not.

Except we can't ignore what Aerys' plan was, a plan that the Kingsguards would have been duty bound to have carried out.  Presumably if the three Kingsguards were present in King's Landing, they would have kept Jaime from both killing both Aerys and Rossart which would have allowed Aerys' Plan B to unfold, which was to ignite all of King's Landing with wildfire if it looked like the city was about to be taken. 

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1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

Except we can't ignore what Aerys' plan was, a plan that the Kingsguards would have been duty bound to have carried out.  Presumably if the three Kingsguards were present in King's Landing, they would have kept Jaime from both killing both Aerys and Rossart which would have allowed Aerys' Plan B to unfold, which was to ignite all of King's Landing with wildfire if it looked like the city was about to be taken. 

Ahhh, exactly.    I have been saying for years that the important word in that "Far away" passage is YET - "Aerys would YET sit the Iron Throne" - implying "still" but in a pejorative sense.   They removed themselves from the equation because they wanted/expected/needed Aerys to die, and their oath-bound presence meant that couldn't happen.      

There's a bit of irony here too, IMO - the "false brother" statement could be interpreted to mean that they mistrusted Jaime as Tywin's son, loyal to Lannister over (Rhaegar) Targaryen, yet it seems from Jaime's POV that at the time, in that first year of so of his KG position, probably held an equal amount of loyalty to Rhaegar as the others did, and possibly even more regard for his KG oath in general.     The white cloak soiled HIM, as he says.   I believe this is why we get the hint of sarcasm as he is describing Gerold Hightower as "loyal to the end and a better man than me, all agree", after telling Catelyn the story of Hightower reminding Jaime of his vows as Rickard Stark burned.    This seems to be a clue that the White Bull may not have been loyal at all, and the dig about the vows was hypocrisy at best, but of course no one would know this except Jaime.  

Anyway, totally agree - had the KG Three not been far away, they would have protected Aerys as their white cloaks would require, and Jaime would have died in the blaze of glory that came from the king's ripe 'fruits'. 

Edited by PrettyPig

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1 hour ago, PrettyPig said:

Ahhh, exactly.    I have been saying for years that the important word in that "Far away" passage is YET - "Aerys would YET sit the Iron Throne" - implying "still" but in a pejorative sense.   They removed themselves from the equation because they wanted/expected/needed Aerys to die, and their oath-bound presence meant that couldn't happen.    

This would require a fair amount of knowledge of what was about to go down. How would they know?

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7 hours ago, JNR said:

Well, it's possible, but it wouldn't have been the Kingsguard who made the decision to open the gates or keep them closed.  

It would have been King Aerys, just as it was in the canonical reality.

Now, we know Aerys was explicitly counseled to keep the gates closed by Varys, his spymaster:

This was a question of whether Tywin could be trusted.  Varys, as spymaster, was a primary source of intel -- it was his basic job and area of expertise, as spymaster -- and Aerys still ignored him.  

The KG had nothing to do with intel or analysis, and would not have been better positioned than Varys to report on Tywin's trustworthiness.  

So I think odds are high Aerys would still have decided to open the gates, whether the three KG were there or not.   

The issue I'm suggesting is that Aerys had no choice but to trust to dodgy advice and extreme measures because Hightower and the others weren't there. The King's Guard don't just stand around the throne looking decorative, they lead the King's armies and while his biggest and best one had been smashed at the Trident, Hightower could still be trusted to make a fight of it - but he wasn't there.

There is an intriguing side issue to this. On the one hand Pycelle advised Aerys to open the gates to Tywin, while Jaime by his own account was at the same time killing off the pyromancers. 

Did Aerys know Tywin was going to betray him and far from opening the gates to a friendly army did he intend the Lannisters to perish in his trap?

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9 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Did Aerys know Tywin was going to betray him and far from opening the gates to a friendly army did he intend the Lannisters to perish in his trap?

How long had Aerys been stockpiling wildfire and did the KG know about it?

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1 hour ago, LynnS said:

How long had Aerys been stockpiling wildfire and did the KG know about it?

Presumably he had been doing so for some time since it sounds like there was more of it than Tyrion had, even with the inexplicable ease of production.

As for the King's Guard, Jaime appears to have been the only one who knew, unless you're suggesting that Hightower deliberately removed himself from harms way, although I'd have thought that goes far beyond his sworn duty.

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51 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

Presumably he had been doing so for some time since it sounds like there was more of it than Tyrion had, even with the inexplicable ease of production.

As for the King's Guard, Jaime appears to have been the only one who knew, unless you're suggesting that Hightower deliberately removed himself from harms way, although I'd have thought that goes far beyond his sworn duty.

I don't know what Hightower thought but this is probably one of the secrets that Hightower was privy to and meant to keep.

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15 hours ago, Black Crow said:

The King's Guard don't just stand around the throne looking decorative, they lead the King's armies and while his biggest and best one had been smashed at the Trident, Hightower could still be trusted to make a fight of it - but he wasn't there.

Sure.  However, the thing is that this wasn't a military issue of how best to defend King's Landing.

It was an analysis issue, of figuring out, based on intel, whether Tywin was loyal or not.  

Varys said no; Pycelle said yes.   But I'm doubtful that any of the missing KG would have been seen by Aerys as skilled and well-informed analysts of Tywin's loyalty.  

Varys in particular, thanks to his network of little birds, should probably have been trusted, rather than ignored, as Jaime points out.

6 hours ago, LynnS said:

How long had Aerys been stockpiling wildfire and did the KG know about it?

If you mean Hightower, Dayne, and Whent, it appears none of them knew.  Because:

Quote

Prince Rhaegar returned from the south and persuaded his father to swallow his pride and summon my father. But no raven returned from Casterly Rock, and that made the king even more afraid. He saw traitors everywhere, and Varys was always there to point out any he might have missed. So His Grace commanded his alchemists to place caches of wildfire all over King's Landing. Beneath Baelor's Sept and the hovels of Flea Bottom, under stables and storehouses, at all seven gates, even in the cellars of the Red Keep itself.

This was quite late in the Rebellion, after Rhaegar had returned, Aerys had been been persuaded to ask Tywin for help, and ravens had been sent, yet none had returned.

Ergo, months after the Battle of the Bells.

So we have to ask ourselves what Hightower -- based on the information in his head when he met Ned -- would have been thinking, in claiming that the three KGs' presence in King's Landing prior to the Sack would have resulted in Aerys still remaining King over Westeros.  

I don't believe he or the other two knew a thing about the wildfire plot.

Edited by JNR

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1 hour ago, JNR said:

Sure.  However, the thing is that this wasn't a military issue of how best to defend King's Landing.

It was an analysis issue, of figuring out, based on intel, whether Tywin was loyal or not.  

Varys said no; Pycelle said yes.   But I'm doubtful that any of the missing KG would have been seen by Aerys as skilled and well-informed analysts of Tywin's loyalty.  

Yes and no. The two go together and lacking another or at least better alternative Aerys listened to Pycelle because there was no alternative. Varys may well have counselled keeping the gates shut, but the White Bull was far away and there was nobody else close enough at hand - hence perhaps the real reason for Aerys' insurance. Was he really as made as those who profited by his death claimed?

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An alternative strategy. By a combination of birds and messengers Hightower learns of the disaster on the Trident and rushes back to King's Landing bringing the Tyrells and the Tarlys and everybody else besieging Storm's End. Even the knowledge he was coming would have made a difference. Aerys could withstand a siege long enough.

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9 hours ago, Black Crow said:

The two go together and lacking another or at least better alternative Aerys listened to Pycelle because there was no alternative. Varys may well have counselled keeping the gates shut, but the White Bull was far away

But see, I'm not sure Aerys would have believed anybody who was known as "the white Bull."

Gotta wonder how many lies he told to earn that nickname...

Edited by JNR

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"far away" was in reference to the Trident, not King' Landing.   If they were at the battle of the Trident,  Rhaegar beats Robert.

This is odd if you believe Rhaegar wanted to replace his father, as these 3 would certainly have known.  But Ned did not, and I doubt this conversation actually took place.   Ned is just imagining what they would have said.

Edited by Brad Stark

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19 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

"far away" was in reference to the Trident, not King' Landing.   If they were at the battle of the Trident,  Rhaegar beats Robert.

This is odd if you believe Rhaegar wanted to replace his father, as these 3 would certainly have known.  But Ned did not, and I doubt this conversation actually took place.   Ned is just imagining what they would have said.

The "far away" really has a broader context which encompasses the Trident, King's Landing and Storms End and perhaps other places where Targaryen armies and supporters might be found. Whether they were far away from the tower as well is moot, but they weren't in any of the places Ned expected to find them.

There is of course another "nuclear" option that Aerys wanted them there to keep a possible Targaryen heir "far away" from danger while he himself went out with a bang and the decoys ran for dragonstone. He is alleged to have been mad, you know

Edited by Black Crow
silly spelling mistake

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On 1/24/2018 at 0:58 PM, LynnS said:

I wanted to revisit Whitetree since there is a question about Bran's tree dreams.  I've always assumed it was Bloodraven who is coming to Bran as a tree but I've had second thoughts.

 

The twisted mouth and repeatedly tasting blood puts Whitetree on the table.  Most trees just have a slash for a mouth. Bran says it is like the tree in Winterfell.  That tree is described as a great wierwood, ancient, at least 10,000 years .

Whitetree is the biggest weirwood Jon has ever seen, so larger and older than the Winterfell tree.

This is the one tree that is described with a 'twisted' mouth and we know that is has received if not blood but burnt offerings recently. 

Bran is afraid of the tree dreams.  Could it be this face that he sees? 

Both trees at Winterfell and Whitetree are old, but I read this as Winterfell's being much older and Whitetree's being bigger have been better fed recently.  As mentioned,  people were a little freaked out by Whitetree, whose villagers disappeared with human bones sacrificed to the tree.  Very different from how people feel about the Winterfell tree.  Winterfell's tree may feed off humans too, such as a Ned executing the deserter at the start, but it eats much less and less often.

Edited by Brad Stark

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51 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

The "far away" really has a broader context which encompasses the Trident, King's Landing and Storms End and perhaps other places where Targaryen armies and supporters might be found. Whether they were far away from the tower as well is moot, but they weren't in any of the places Ned expected to find them.

There is of course another "nuclear" option that Aerys wanted them there to keep a possible Targaryen heir "far away" from danger while he himself went out with a bang and the decoys ran for dragonstone. He is alleged to have been mad, you know

This quote is a reply to why Ned didn't see them at the Trident.   Had they been at the Trident,  either they would have won or would have died there.  Either way, the events at Kings Landing don't play out the same way.  Discussions have been about what would happen if Rhaear still lost at the Trident and the Kingsguard were in King's Landing,  which is not a scenario supported by the conversation.

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1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

Both trees at Winterfell and Whitetree are old, but I read this as Winterfell's being much older and Whitetree's being bigger have been better fed recently.  As mentioned,  people were a little freaked out by Whitetree, whose villagers disappeared with human bones sacrificed to the tree.  Very different from how people feel about the Winterfell tree.  Winterfell's tree may feed off humans too, such as a Ned executing the deserter at the start, but it eats much less and less often.

Well, I never considered that the tree was bigger as a result of being fed on flesh and bones.  It's the reaction to it that makes me think it's older as though the Andals cut down the trees because they were like Whitetree.  I still think it's the tree connected to the Black Gate and just as old. But that's all speculation on my part.   The other tree with a hole for a mouth is at Harrenhal.

A Clash of Kings - Arya IX

Arya climbed. Up in the kingdom of the leaves, she unsheathed and for a time forgot them all, Ser Amory and the Mummers and her father's men alike, losing herself in the feel of rough wood beneath the soles of her feet and the swish of sword through air. A broken branch became Joffrey. She struck at it until it fell away. The queen and Ser Ilyn and Ser Meryn and the Hound were only leaves, but she killed them all as well, slashing them to wet green ribbons. When her arm grew weary, she sat with her legs over a high limb to catch her breath in the cool dark air, listening to the squeak of bats as they hunted. Through the leafy canopy she could see the bone-white branches of the heart tree. It looks just like the one in Winterfell from here. If only it had been . . . then when she climbed down she would have been home again, and maybe find her father sitting under the weirwood where he always sat.
Shoving her sword through her belt, she slipped down branch to branch until she was back on the ground. The light of the moon painted the limbs of the weirwood silvery white as she made her way toward it, but the five-pointed red leaves turned black by night. Arya stared at the face carved into its trunk. It was a terrible face, its mouth twisted, its eyes flaring and full of hate. Is that what a god looked like? Could gods be hurt, the same as people? I should pray, she thought suddenly.
Arya went to her knees. She wasn't sure how she should begin. She clasped her hands together. Help me, you old gods, she prayed silently. Help me get those men out of the dungeon so we can kill Ser Amory, and bring me home to Winterfell. Make me a water dancer and a wolf and not afraid again, ever.

A Clash of Kings - Arya IX

"Swear it," Arya said. "Swear it by the gods."
"By all the gods of sea and air, and even him of fire, I swear it." He placed a hand in the mouth of the weirwood. "By the seven new gods and the old gods beyond count, I swear it."
He has sworn. "Even if I named the king . . ."

 

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