The Dornish Letter

[Lost Melnibonean]

9 minutes ago, Kandrax said:

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CLEGANEBOWL!!! FUCKING CONFIRMED!!!

This was written in the letter.

[Fire Eater]

On 1/29/2018 at 5:45 PM, Myrish Lace said:

And again - how would this change Dornish position against Targaryens? The ashes a home; time to burn Dorne some more.

 

The letter could be written by Rhaenys, informing her brother that she is in good health and has proper amount of fingers. And if Aegon doesn't want her to arrive home piecemeal, he has to stop burning everything. Aegon was pissed because he just lost his favorite wife forever and couldn't claim vengeance. He burned the letter because he was pissed and marched off to Dragonstone to tell Visenya.

As for why Martells didn't do it sooner, there are two options. First, in the post-burning Dorne Martells would emerge untouched, their every internal rival weakened, so the entire war was not without a benefit to Martells - strengthening them internally and uniting Dorne against the merciless murderous Other to the North. Second, Martells might have been waiting for a pause in active warfare to send the message. After all, if Aegon burned entiure towns, he could have just as easily burned some Martell cavalcade galloping north without questioning whys and hows of the situation.

 

It is gesture of goodwill. Aegon already burned Dorne for Rhaenys's death, why would he need to burn it a second time? You missed that an enemy returning the remains of someone on the other side is considered a sign of respect, hence why Jon Arryn went with Elia's bones to Dorne. 

As I clearly explained, that theory has so many problems. Why didn't the Dornish use Rhaenys when they first knew they had her? Saying he went to tell Visenya is a bad theory given it was stated clearly Visenya was at King's Landing given she was overlooking the Red Keep's construction, and she (along with Rhaenys before she died) helped run the seven kingdoms. If Aegon was pissed, why the hell did he agree to a peace immediately? That makes no sense. Does Aegon look like the kind of guy who would accept a peace based on a threat? He celebrated the tenth anniversary of the peace with the Martells, which would be really strange if what you described is the case. 

Waiting for a pause in active warfare? I don't recall there being a pause in the war. It makes sense to get delegation sent soon rather than let Dorne suffer until there is a pause. Aegon isn't known to be the kind of guy to burn a peace delegation. 

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Fire Eater, you make really good points. These are the best ideas I've seen.

On 1/28/2018 at 9:36 PM, Fire Eater said:

How can you change Aegon's mind with water magic? 

Only water quenches fire. It is the natural enemy to a man whose power is based in fire. Don't forget it was the Hammer of the Waters that broke Dorne's arm. As to what they would do with the water magic, I couldn't say, but it's not a bad idea that they could threaten something like drowning all of Dorne because they'd rather sink than burn.

9 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

<snip

Visenya managed the problem in his own way: through dark magic. He took Aegon's "DNA" and made a copy of him inside her body. It was only too late that she realized that Aegon's "clone" had the same problem as the original: he could not sire children. But that's another story.

This theory explains why Aegon got so angry when receiving the letter, and also why he immediately went to to Dragonstone to investigate the matter by questioning the people who had surrounded Rhaenys (Rhaenys would have ensured that the real father was of Valyrian stock, so the candidates would be among the Valyrian families living in the Dragonstone court). It would also explain why Aegon and Visenya grew distant after the Dornish war (Aegon thought Visenya had also cheated on him).

Except that Maegor could and did. He just never had any who lived. And that was the work of Tyanna of Pentos, because she wanted to be the wife to give him an heir. I'm sure we all remember how that turned out. 

There no longer was a Dragonstone court, assuming that there ever was. King's Landing was where Aegon held court. That's where he and Rhaenys and Visenya lived. If Rhaenys was going to choose a Valyrian-looking lover, she probably would have gone with a Velaryon (which brings up the interesting question of whether Aenys then married his own sister). Rhaenys couldn't just fly off to Dragonstone for X number of weeks, come back and suddenly be pregnant, and not have anyone get suspicious...especially Visenya. And if Visenya knew about it, she would have told Aegon and made sure her own son was named heir over Aenys.

Still, unless she was using magic, the only way to even come close to guaranteeing a pregnancy would be to choose a man known to be fertile, and be sleeping with this alleged lover just about every day/night for a period of two weeks and there is zero chance that she would have been able to do so without getting caught. We could narrow it down to one week if she really knew her cycles well, but even that would have been impossible. Look at how Margaery is always surrounded by people yet she's arrested on charges of adultery. People would notice if Queen Rhaenys and Randomys Valyrius disappeared together regularly, and Aegon certainly would have noticed another man having been in the bed, or coming to it while he was still in it. Even if the guy weren't seen in her bed, he'd be seen near her bedchamber at highly inappropriate times. It's extremely unlikely. Cersei only got away with her cheating because she was screwing family members and no one expected that.

[The hairy bear]

14 hours ago, Myrish Lace said:

That's an interesting one.

However it doesn't explain why would Aegon leave the Dornishmen alone after that. It's not like they could perform Aenys' paternity test on live TV for all Westeros to see. So while it can change family dynamic, it doesn't provide Dorne with leverage.

And again - how would this change Dornish position against Targaryens? The ashes a home; time to burn Dorne some more.

I think a secret like this could explain why Dorne was left alone.

We shouldn't discard the possibility that the Dornish had some kind of evidence: some witness that saw something, some prisoner willing to confess, some letter that Rhaenys had on her when he died,...

But even without evidence, such an open accusation would do a lot of harm to the newly established Targaryen dynasty. Provided it was true, of course, Aegon could do nothing to disprove it. If this rumours was widespread, he would be expected to refute it with more children. Not only it would give the antiTarg factions new impulse, but it would ensure a civil war after his death (Maegor would use it to usurp Aenys throne). It would also tarnish his figure and legacy for future generations.

8 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Except that Maegor could and did. He just never had any who lived. And that was the work of Tyanna of Pentos, because she wanted to be the wife to give him an heir. I'm sure we all remember how that turned out.

Maegor was married to Ceryse for a decade without offspring. Then he married Alys Harroway, with no luck. Tyanna was only his third wife. Commonfolk, singers and maesters found a very nice scapegoat in Tyana, who was a foreigner with no links to local nobility. Some of Maegor's blackest sins (such as the murders of Viserys and Alys) are attributed to her. But its not like we should give any credit to her confessions obtained under torture,

But anyway, this is only collateral to the theory. Maegor could just be from Visenya and another man, and he just inherited the fertility problems of her father.

8 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

There no longer was a Dragonstone court, assuming that there ever was. King's Landing was where Aegon held court. That's where he and Rhaenys and Visenya lived.

Precisely. If Rhaenys wanted to have an affair without Aegon knowing, and he needed someone of Valyrian race as the father, the place to do it wouldn't be among the new court in KL, but in the old court at Dragonstone.

No one would wonder why she spent her free time there. It was her birthplace, and her dragon's. And it was an actual castle, not a crude wooden fortification like the Aegonfort.

8 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Rhaenys couldn't just fly off to Dragonstone for X number of weeks, come back and suddenly be pregnant, and not have anyone get suspicious...

Aenys was conceived in year 6, in the middle of the Dornish war. Orys was a prisoner, and the three Targ sibling had to get hold of a huge kingdom by themselves. Surely, they spent more time on the battlefield or on royal progresses than on King's Landing. And they were not together for lengthy periods of time.

It has also been established that Rhaenys loved flying on dragonback, and that the flight between KL and Dragonstone is just a matter of a few hours. Rhaenys could go to visit her lover every night and still be back by sunrise.

But most importantly... people got suspicious indeed! It is said that Rhaenys entertained the company of singers and bards. It is suggested that Aenys may not be Aegon's son by contemporaries. The rumors were already there. Taking into account that everyone who repeated this kind of talk would be killed on sight, the fact that they have actually persisted through generations proves that they were relatively widespread.

[Jon Fossoway]

That fourth explanation sounds clean. I wonder, if that was the case, if Rhaenys somehow persuaded Aegon from staying off Dorne during his reign. She could appealed to good will, although I doubt that, considering how tense was politics between Dorne and the Throne. The Targaryens were, for one, burning Dorne people and stuff like Doom's imps on a binge roll, for Brian's sake. That's why I believe the fourth explanation fails a bit. Aegon wasn't going for peace after a 'good will' Martell treat. Good will couldn't have settled this. Other possibility is that Rhaenys herself, while his stay in Hellholt (or Sunspear) sealed peace somehow. She was Queen after all. All in all, that 4th theory sounds good.

[Universal Sword Donor]

10 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Fire Eater, you make really good points. These are the best ideas I've seen.

Only water quenches fire. It is the natural enemy to a man whose power is based in fire. Don't forget it was the Hammer of the Waters that broke Dorne's arm. As to what they would do with the water magic, I couldn't say, but it's not a bad idea that they could threaten something like drowning all of Dorne because they'd rather sink than burn.

Sand and dirt quench fire just as well as water. But for some reason, that line of thinking evoked the Barristan quote about Quentin:

“She wants fire, and Dorne sent her mud.
You could make a poultice out of mud to cool a fever. You could plant seeds in mud and grow a crop to feed your children. Mud would nourish you, where fire would only consume you, but fools and children and young girls would choose fire every time.”

 

[Lord Varys]

The idea that Rhaenys' words meant much in context as to Aenys' parentage makes overall little sense in this entire thing, simply because she could (and most likely would) have been tortured by the Dornishmen to reveal that information. Which would also mean they might have forced her to confess nonsense.

The idea that Rhaenys may have had any actual 'evidence' on her body when her dragon crashed makes even less sense - why on earth should Rhaenys carry letters around on dragonback when flying to war?

The idea of Rhaenys surviving and being treated friendly by the Dornishmen makes also not much sense considering the fact to what degree the war had escalated at that point. The Ullers are famed for their madness and cruelty, making it very unlikely that they would have treated her friendly. And Meria Martell herself likely would also have enjoyed listening to the mad screams of the woman who once presumed to rule her land, rather than granting her a comfy tower cell.

Not to mention that Meraxes fall and death would likely have led to some serious injuries, too.

If Rhaenys had become a Dornish prisoner/hostage then it is indeed very odd that the Martells never publicly revealed that fact - or officially used it as a means to end the war.

If Aegon had received a letter written in Rhaenys' handwriting indicating that she was (or recently had been) alive and well then there would have been little reason for him to clench the letter as hard as he did. Hearing anything positive from Rhaenys would have been a cause for joy, not for anger. In that sense it seems pretty obvious that the letter contained something Aegon did not want to hear, something that was unpleasant for him. Perhaps even something that directly threatened him.

If Rhaenys had been dead at that point (and her ashes/remains) been clearly identifiable, then it is also odd that Deria did only bring Meraxes skull to KL and not also Rhaenys' remains.

Overall, one should assume that the main reason for the end of the hostilities had less to do with the contents of the letter and more with the situation the Targaryens found themselves in at that point. Yes, they were most likely able to continue the dragon warfare, but their ability to continue the war with conventional means may have reached a point where it would be unwise to continue. After all, the Lords of the Riverlands, Vale, Westerlands, North, etc. wouldn't be all that interested in sacrificing their sons and brothers for a stupid war in Dorne for the Conqueror's mad ambitions.

The letter certainly had a strong impact on Aegon, but whatever it contained, it is unlikely that this could force him to end a war. Especially if it contained unpleasant things about Rhaenys - if that had been the case it would have added more reasons to continue the war than reasons to end it, especially if the letter had contained evidence that Rhaenys had been tortured/mistreated by the Dornishmen in the past and/or present.

The Faceless Men scenario would have nothing to do with the Targaryens being able to outbid the Martells. The House of Black and White takes all contracts. If Prince Nymor had sacrificed enough to have the Faceless Men kill Aenys (and Maegor, Visenya, and Aegon himself) then this would have happened, never mind the fact that Aegon may have tried to contact the Faceless Men to outbid Nymor or to make contracts to kill the Martells instead.

The fact simply is that we have no way to resolve this whole thing. We don't have the information to do, nor do I see a good way to come up with an explanation for Aegon's decision.

The whole water magic angle doesn't seem to lead anywhere, but the idea that Princess Meria may have had some old magical artifacts from the dragonlords, bought from the Lyseni, could actually be a hint that the Martells may have had the means to even counter the Targaryen dragons in a meaningful manner. That, in combination with the threat to emplay the Faceless Men, certainly could have been enough for Aegon to reconsider his position.

[Free Northman Reborn]

It seems clear that whatever the contents of the letter was, it alluded to something that Aegon had to go and confirm on Dragonstone in person. Hence his overnight flight there and back, with resulting decision immediately thereafter.

Could Rhaenys have had some Dragon Dreams while in her delerium from torture or from her injuries? Could she have prophecied something which Aegon had to go and check on Dragonstone to confirm?

Perhaps the letter had an immediate prophecy which could be validated on Dragonstone, and a longer term prophecy/warning, which, based on the confirmed validity of the first, had to be taken seriously by Aegon.

[Seams]

22 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

My favorite theory about the Dornish letter is one that hasn't been listed so far.

The Dornish had discovered (perhaps through a dying Rhaenys, but most likely through another way) a very valuable piece of information: that Aenys wasn't Aegon's son.

The important corollary might be that, if Aegon's sons were fathered by someone else, yet they were dragonriders, then it was not necessary to be a Targaryen to hatch and ride a dragon. Of course the mothers were Targaryens, but the family dynasty held power entirely because they had used dragons to conquer everyone else. At that early stage, if the general public realized that you needed only half-Targ blood to be a dragonrider - or that anyone could hatch and ride a dragon - the dynasty might never have been established. All three Targs would have reason to keep bastard paternity of the heirs a secret.

So the Seven Kingdoms / Dorne pact would be, "Leave us alone and we promise we will never reveal the secret of your weapons of mass destruction."

Later, of course, we do see dragonseeds and Targs with one non-Targ parent riding dragons. But the danger is less at that point because the Targaryen hold on the throne has been established.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

... the idea that Princess Meria may have had some old magical artifacts from the dragonlords, bought from the Lyseni, could actually be a hint that the Martells may have had the means to even counter the Targaryen dragons in a meaningful manner. That, in combination with the threat to emplay the Faceless Men, certainly could have been enough for Aegon to reconsider his position.

What if Dorne had dragon eggs? Or even hatchling dragons? Maybe eggs were found in the body of Meraxes (or maybe they were expelled from the dragon's body as it died - sort of like the mother direwolf in AGoT). Or, as you surmise, brought over from Essos at an earlier point and kept in reserve in Dorne.

If Dorne hadn't yet hatched the eggs, maybe the letter told Aegon that they had a book that explained how to hatch and tame dragons, so it was just a matter of time before they could match him in weaponry.

Prince Doran seems to have a little background knowledge about dragons:

Prince Doran shared his secret smile with her. “From Lys. A great fleet has put in there to take on water. Volantene ships chiefly, carrying an army. No word as to who they are, or where they might be bound. There was talk of elephants.”

“No dragons?”

“Elephants. Easy enough to hide a young dragon in a big cog’s hold, though. Daenerys is most vulnerable at sea. If I were her, I would keep myself and my intentions hidden as long as I could, so I might take King’s Landing unawares.”

(ADwD, Hotah I)

Dorne just wants to remain isolated and peaceful - they don't want an arms race with the Iron Throne.

Of course, this theory is weakened by the later invasion of Dorne by Daeron I Targaryen.  By that time, though, the basis for the pact may have been forgotten (if anyone besides Aegon I and Visenya ever knew what was behind it) and no one on either side still had any dragons.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

What if Rhaenys didn’t die at the Hellholt but was injured (10 AC).

Rumors always existed about her fidelity, what if she got pregnant and had a child/children? Perhaps even dying in childbirth. Rhaenys appears to have tried to knit the Seven Kingdoms together with marriage in the past.

On Meria the yellow toad’s death (23 AC), Nymor the prince of Dorne (wife never mentioned) sends his daughter Deria Martell to offer the letter, dragon skull, and peace.

What if the letter said Deria was the daughter of Rhaenys? And Aegon went to Dragonstone to get an egg... for his niece.

This might help explain why Targaryens have been so willing to marry the Martells, also it may contribute towards the Dornish opinions on fidelity and bastards being different from the rest of Westeros.

It also might help explain why Aegon didn’t burn Sunspear when he torched the rest of he Dornish strongholds.

Anyway, it’s just an idea I’ve toyed with...

Prince Qoren: “Dorne has danced with dragons before. I would sooner sleep with scorpions.”

[Jon Fossoway]

Oh, didn't catch that Aenys not being Aegon's son. Maybe Rhaenys had a dornishman dear? Right there in the balls, poor ol' Aegon!

[Lady Blizzardborn]

8 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

Maegor was married to Ceryse for a decade without offspring. Then he married Alys Harroway, with no luck. Tyanna was only his third wife. Commonfolk, singers and maesters found a very nice scapegoat in Tyana, who was a foreigner with no links to local nobility. Some of Maegor's blackest sins (such as the murders of Viserys and Alys) are attributed to her. But its not like we should give any credit to her confessions obtained under torture,

Yes, Maegor and Ceryse's lack of offspring could well be because she was infertile.

Alys Harroway, did give birth to a stillborn and deformed child. After which her entire family was killed. Nice guy, that Maegor.

If I recall correctly, Tyanna was not tortured until after she had told Maegor what she did. The torture was her punishment.

 

8 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

Precisely. If Rhaenys wanted to have an affair without Aegon knowing, and he needed someone of Valyrian race as the father, the place to do it wouldn't be among the new court in KL, but in the old court at Dragonstone.

We've never heard that there was a court at Dragonstone. That's my point.

If there was one, then people there would have known Rhaenys was showing up an awful lot, and that one guy went missing during her visits. Given how connected the few Valyrian families in Westeros are, there is no way that info doesn't get back to Aegon. Unless she did this with his blessing--now THAT would be a scandal--it's extremely unlikely.

8 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

Aenys was conceived in year 6, in the middle of the Dornish war. Orys was a prisoner, and the three Targ sibling had to get hold of a huge kingdom by themselves. Surely, they spent more time on the battlefield or on royal progresses than on King's Landing. And they were not together for lengthy periods of time.

Which makes it far less likely that Rhaenys could fly off to Dragonstone unnoticed. If she was in the middle of a war, there would have been soldiers and lords who noted that she kept leaving. If she had a lover during this period, he'd have to be nearby during the active fighting, which means Dragonstone is less likely.

And even a Velaryon would be unlikely as they would be assaulting the coasts and it would be difficult to have an assignation on a ship, with a dragon hovering overhead, and no one knowing about it. A Celtigar or a Bar Emmon in the land army might make sense though.

8 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

It has also been established that Rhaenys loved flying on dragonback, and that the flight between KL and Dragonstone is just a matter of a few hours. Rhaenys could go to visit her lover every night and still be back by sunrise.

Yes, I know. I've proposed that the heat from dragonback flying might make for potential fertility issues unless countered effectively. Depends on how much GRRM knows about pregnancies, and how much he might have wanted to include. On the flip side, that same heat could pose a problem in the male dragonriders as it could lower sperm count.

Sure it's a short-ish flight. But how much longer is it from Dorne to Dragonstone?

And don't you think there would be a ton of people who not only whispered about, but downright knew for a fact that Rhaenys would take her dragon out and not return until morning on a regular basis? Even without being in the midst of a war, which arguably makes it even less likely that she could pull it off.

8 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

But most importantly... people got suspicious indeed! It is said that Rhaenys entertained the company of singers and bards. It is suggested that Aenys may not be Aegon's son by contemporaries. The rumors were already there. Taking into account that everyone who repeated this kind of talk would be killed on sight, the fact that they have actually persisted through generations proves that they were relatively widespread.

People always get suspicious. My point was that it would be worse, and the rumors more pronounced if there was actually reason for it.

Entertaining the company of someone is not the same as sleeping with them. She was a queen. She had attendants. She would not have been entertaining them alone.

If you're going to cite the existing rumors, your argument would be stronger if one of the bards or singers was the father. Since Rhaenys herself was inclined toward the arts, no one would ever know that Aenys got his artistic sensibilities from both sides. After all, the rumors were about the guys she had at KL, not about her disappearing and possibly having lovers stashed away on islands. If rumors are evidence (and I disagree on that point) then they can only be evidence for what they state.

People would only be killed if they discussed it openly, or took it to Aegon and/or Visenya. No one's suspicions were strong enough to make an actual case, or it would have been reported and ended as you suggest. Then Lord Whosit's execution would have been remarked on, and the rumors would have grown.

As to the point that the idea of infidelity has persisted, one need only look at the real world to see how rumors spread, and persist--even in spite of evidence to the contrary--to realize that this alone is not grounds for taking them seriously. How many people still think President Ulysses Grant had a drinking problem? What he actually had was migraines, but the rumors persist because they are more fun. A few years ago it was going around that Abe Lincoln was gay. George Washington is still thought to have had wooden teeth, and been able to lie to his father about chopping down a cherry tree. Outside the US there's Catherine the Great and that horse--ridiculous, but it keeps getting repeated. There are countless other examples, but I can't think of any more at the moment.

There are ALWAYS rumors about celebrated people in history. The George is on record talking about mysteries in history that we will never have the answers to, and how he wanted to use that in the series to make it more realistic. In the name of realism, it would be exactly his style to put in rumors just for the sake of rumors, and not tell us whether or not they are true.

 

 

[Lady Blizzardborn]

7 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Sand and dirt quench fire just as well as water. But for some reason, that line of thinking evoked the Barristan quote about Quentin:

“She wants fire, and Dorne sent her mud.
You could make a poultice out of mud to cool a fever. You could plant seeds in mud and grow a crop to feed your children. Mud would nourish you, where fire would only consume you, but fools and children and young girls would choose fire every time.”

 

True, but not everyone knows that, and we have not seen sand magic referenced in the series. Dirt magic is arguably the same as earth/green magic. The Dornish only have a known connection to water magic, through Nymeria and the Rhoynar. Unless the Daynes or somebody like them still keep the Old Gods, there's not much point in threatening Aegon with green magic.

Good call on the mud. Mix earth magic with water magic, and Mud Magic (or Magic Mud) should be the result. 

Barry's not much of a gardener. Only some seeds will grow in mud. Most need a drier environment than that.

[Universal Sword Donor]

30 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

True, but not everyone knows that, and we have not seen sand magic referenced in the series. Dirt magic is arguably the same as earth/green magic. The Dornish only have a known connection to water magic, through Nymeria and the Rhoynar. Unless the Daynes or somebody like them still keep the Old Gods, there's not much point in threatening Aegon with green magic.

Good call on the mud. Mix earth magic with water magic, and Mud Magic (or Magic Mud) should be the result. 

Barry's not much of a gardener. Only some seeds will grow in mud. Most need a drier environment than that.

I absolutely lost it at 'Dirt magic.' It's a good thing I worked fmor home today.

[Fire Eater]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that Rhaenys may have had any actual 'evidence' on her body when her dragon crashed makes even less sense - why on earth should Rhaenys carry letters around on dragonback when flying to war?

The idea of Rhaenys surviving and being treated friendly by the Dornishmen makes also not much sense considering the fact to what degree the war had escalated at that point. The Ullers are famed for their madness and cruelty, making it very unlikely that they would have treated her friendly. And Meria Martell herself likely would also have enjoyed listening to the mad screams of the woman who once presumed to rule her land, rather than granting her a comfy tower cell.

Not to mention that Meraxes fall and death would likely have led to some serious injuries, too.

If Rhaenys had become a Dornish prisoner/hostage then it is indeed very odd that the Martells never publicly revealed that fact - or officially used it as a means to end the war.

Next time please read more carefully, I said "she asked for a parchment and quill" not that she had one on her whilst she was flying. 

Except, it goes with GRRM's habits of creating and forming readers' expectations just to surprise them. Torturing her is exactly what the reader easily accepts and expects them to do. Also, Meria Martell wasn't at Hellholt, but Sunspear (which was untouched). Meria was smart, and she would know the huge potential value of Rhaenys as a hostage. 

I clearly said she was badly injured in the OP. Again, read carefully. 

The Martells didn't publicly reveal it, because she died shortly after her fall. There is also the not unlikely scenario that one of the towers destroyed at Hellholt was the maester's tower, and all the ravens inside were killed. Hellholt wouldn't be able to send a raven to anywhere, even Sunspear. Any message without a raven would have taken weeks to reach Sunspear. 

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If Aegon had received a letter written in Rhaenys' handwriting indicating that she was (or recently had been) alive and well then there would have been little reason for him to clench the letter as hard as he did. Hearing anything positive from Rhaenys would have been a cause for joy, not for anger. In that sense it seems pretty obvious that the letter contained something Aegon did not want to hear, something that was unpleasant for him. Perhaps even something that directly threatened him.

If Rhaenys had been dead at that point (and her ashes/remains) been clearly identifiable, then it is also odd that Deria did only bring Meraxes skull to KL and not also Rhaenys' remains.

Overall, one should assume that the main reason for the end of the hostilities had less to do with the contents of the letter and more with the situation the Targaryens found themselves in at that point. Yes, they were most likely able to continue the dragon warfare, but their ability to continue the war with conventional means may have reached a point where it would be unwise to continue. After all, the Lords of the Riverlands, Vale, Westerlands, North, etc. wouldn't be all that interested in sacrificing their sons and brothers for a stupid war in Dorne for the Conqueror's mad ambitions.

The letter certainly had a strong impact on Aegon, but whatever it contained, it is unlikely that this could force him to end a war. Especially if it contained unpleasant things about Rhaenys - if that had been the case it would have added more reasons to continue the war than reasons to end it, especially if the letter had contained evidence that Rhaenys had been tortured/mistreated by the Dornishmen in the past and/or present.

Who knows how who would respond to such a letter? Aegon's response would have been appropriate since it involved his late sister-wife. 

Rhaenys's remains were being sent to Dragonstone, her childhood home. I explained that was at her request. 

The problem with you argument in the paragraph quoted above is that Aegon is clearly described as "determined to refuse" the offer of peace. He was for continuing the war, and Rhaenys's death would have hardened his resolve. Something in the letter changed his mind. 

It has nothing to do with force, but with convincing and moving him to end the war. 

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Faceless Men scenario would have nothing to do with the Targaryens being able to outbid the Martells. The House of Black and White takes all contracts. If Prince Nymor had sacrificed enough to have the Faceless Men kill Aenys (and Maegor, Visenya, and Aegon himself) then this would have happened, never mind the fact that Aegon may have tried to contact the Faceless Men to outbid Nymor or to make contracts to kill the Martells instead.

The fact simply is that we have no way to resolve this whole thing. We don't have the information to do, nor do I see a good way to come up with an explanation for Aegon's decision.

The whole water magic angle doesn't seem to lead anywhere, but the idea that Princess Meria may have had some old magical artifacts from the dragonlords, bought from the Lyseni, could actually be a hint that the Martells may have had the means to even counter the Targaryen dragons in a meaningful manner. That, in combination with the threat to emplay the Faceless Men, certainly could have been enough for Aegon to reconsider his position.

Except the whole point behind hiring assassins is to kill someone off without getting caught, or essentially, the client who hires the assassins doesn't get implicated. So that scenario makes it clear the Nymor would hire FM to kill Aenys, and if Aenys died, Aegon would clearly know who was responsible. That itself brings the risk of an even more brutal campaign with more dragons, and possibly even Sunspear being burned this time. 

If the Martells had dragonkilling weapons the whole time, why didn't they first use them when the Targaryens starting using their dragons? Also, Aegon doesn't sound like the kind of man who could be cowed by such threats. Finally, why would Aegon bring his own son to celebrate a peace deal with the same people who got the deal by threatening to kill that exact same son?

Yes, we're not being given any info regarding the letter, and the chances are it will be revealed later on in the series I think.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

I find this mystery intriguing, and can’t help thinking we’re missing an important piece of the puzzle. It seems likely that the resolution of this will be a part of the wider story, as otherwise it seems like too big a mystery to leave unanswered, or to have an answer completely independent of anything else.

The idea that the Dornish still had Rhaenys, and they offered to put her out of her misery, or the idea that she herself wrote to Aegon, are good self-contained theories, in that they make sense as a resolution to that specific mystery; but I fail to see how they impact on the wider story.

I don’t really have any theories of my own, but I think there is more to this than is immediately apparent, and we’ll hear more about it in the future.

[Lord Varys]

6 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

Next time please read more carefully, I said "she asked for a parchment and quill" not that she had one on her whilst she was flying. 

I wasn't referring to anything you wrote there - which would be obvious to you if you had carefully read all the other postings in this thread - I was commenting on the idea that Rhaenys may have incriminating evidence proving that Aenys was not Aegon's son - in the form of letters or other written documents - on her body when Meraxes crashed.

The idea that the Martells could use Rhaenys - and anything she might have known - as a weapon to seriously harm the Targaryens is simply not very likely. Everything Rhaenys may have said, every 'proof' they may have, could be easily enough dismissed as forced confessions under torture or enemy propaganda.

6 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

Except, it goes with GRRM's habits of creating and forming readers' expectations just to surprise them. Torturing her is exactly what the reader easily accepts and expects them to do. Also, Meria Martell wasn't at Hellholt, but Sunspear (which was untouched). Meria was smart, and she would know the huge potential value of Rhaenys as a hostage. 

How do you know where Meria Martell throughout the war between the Targaryens and Dorne? We have no information on her movements and whereabouts. But we do know she clearly wasn't at Sunspear when the Targaryens took it. She returned for the Defenestration of Sunspear, though.

This isn't the main point, though. The point is that the Ullers would have been the ones to capture Rhaenys after her fall, and while the Martells may have wanted to treat her more kindly (or not) they likely were not the first ones to get to her.

Eventually the Martells would have gotten hold of her, of course. Else Nymor couldn't have sent Aegon a letter containing information on Rhaenys (or offered to do something with her or her remains).

6 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

The Martells didn't publicly reveal it, because she died shortly after her fall. There is also the not unlikely scenario that one of the towers destroyed at Hellholt was the maester's tower, and all the ravens inside were killed. Hellholt wouldn't be able to send a raven to anywhere, even Sunspear. Any message without a raven would have taken weeks to reach Sunspear. 

That is crude speculation. For all we know there could have been multiple Dornish houses assembled at Hellholt to defend the castle against the dragons. Not to mention that the kind of warfare the Dornishmen were employing most definitely is not raven-based. There would be messengers and riders going back and forth between the various castles, camps, and Sunspear to an insane degree.

You also do realize that Meraxes fell in 10 AC, and Deria only went to King's Landing in 14 AC, four years later, right?

Any letter of Rhaenys' written shortly before her death - if said death occurred days or weeks after the fall - would have had little or no impact on Aegon in relation to the continuation of the war. This voice of Rhaenys would have been a distant and dead voice, not one relevant to the present-day politics.

One could make the case if Aegon had wept instead of clenching the letter as hard as he did.

If one wants to go with the idea that the letter referred to Rhaenys then the best guess would be that she may have indeed been badly injured and was later on nursed back to health, etc. only to be now threatened with the worst torture imaginable for the remainder of her long, long life should Aegon not back that.

The whole thing makes most sense as a successful attempt of blackmail than anything else.

6 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

Who knows how who would respond to such a letter? Aegon's response would have been appropriate since it involved his late sister-wife. 

Nope. Basic human understanding and character-building necessitates that a man who loved his sister and wife as much as Aegon supposedly did wouldn't react with barely suppressed rage/anger but rather with grief, relief, and perhaps even joy (over receiving one last message from the beloved from beyond the grave).

The idea that Aegon reacted the way he did because he received a positive message from Rhaenys simply makes no sense.

6 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

Rhaenys's remains were being sent to Dragonstone, her childhood home. I explained that was at her request.

You explained nothing. There would be no reason for the Martells to make a secret about that, or the letter. Princess Deria could have come to KL to bring both the dragon skull and the remains of Rhaenys (Aegon could then inter them on Dragonstone or wherever he saw fit). And if the letter had been written by Rhaenys - or contained sections written by Rhaenys - Deria could have made a public show out of that, having the voice of Queen Rhaenys urge her brother and sister to work for peace in front of the entire court.

That would have made a much stronger impact than a private letter - after all, private letters can be ignored, can't they? And why on earth would Aegon immediately burn a letter written by his beloved Rhaenys? It makes no sense.

6 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

The problem with you argument in the paragraph quoted above is that Aegon is clearly described as "determined to refuse" the offer of peace. He was for continuing the war, and Rhaenys's death would have hardened his resolve. Something in the letter changed his mind. 

The correct phrasing is that 'it was said, King Aegon was determined to refuse the offer'. It is not said that this was an undisputed fact. Be that as it may, it is pretty clear that the best way to interpret the letter is that it was some kind of successful blackmail.

6 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

Except the whole point behind hiring assassins is to kill someone off without getting caught, or essentially, the client who hires the assassins doesn't get implicated. So that scenario makes it clear the Nymor would hire FM to kill Aenys, and if Aenys died, Aegon would clearly know who was responsible. That itself brings the risk of an even more brutal campaign with more dragons, and possibly even Sunspear being burned this time. 

Sure, but Prince Nymor was ailing old man. He, personally, had nothing to live for, so why not go down knowing that the Faceless Men would eradicate the Targaryen line for him? Dorne would no longer burn if there were no longer any dragonriders to ride those beasts...

It would also have been successful blackmail - Aegon caring more about Aenys than about subduing Dorne. And that's not far-fetched at all.

6 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

If the Martells had dragonkilling weapons the whole time, why didn't they first use them when the Targaryens starting using their dragons? Also, Aegon doesn't sound like the kind of man who could be cowed by such threats. Finally, why would Aegon bring his own son to celebrate a peace deal with the same people who got the deal by threatening to kill that exact same son?

Because it might have been risky doing that? It could have been a horn like Dragonbinder (or something similar), involving blood magic/sacrifices to make it work, with success not being guaranteed. Not to mention, you know, that Meria reserved the weapon to defend Sunspear against a dragon attack - which then could explain why the Targaryens did not, in fact, attack Sunspear with their dragons.

The letter pretty much indicates that Aegon can be blackmailed, yes.

The peace treaty turned out to be a success. It was Prince Nymor who would have threatened to assassinate Aenys, not Deria. And this was during war times. Both the Targaryens and the Martells put bounties on the heads of each other and their lords, resulting in many assassinations during the course of the war, including multiple attempts to murder Aegon and Visenya. Yet Aegon still received Deria's party later on, just as Deria later on received Aegon and Aenys.

Politicians can differentiate between war and peace, you know.

6 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

Yes, we're not being given any info regarding the letter, and the chances are it will be revealed later on in the series I think.

I'd not bet on that. Why on earth should George care to do that? This is a trivial issue in the history of Westeros, something pretty much nobody in the present should be interested in. Bran technically could watch Aegon while he was reading the letter (or watch Nymor writing it) but why on earth should the author focus on this stuff? Where is the relevance for the plot of ASoIaF?

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

39 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I'd not bet on that. Why on earth should George care to do that? This is a trivial issue in the history of Westeros, something pretty much nobody in the present should be interested in. Bran technically could watch Aegon while he was reading the letter (or watch Nymor writing it) but why on earth should the author focus on this stuff? Where is the relevance for the plot of ASoIaF?

This is the point though – we don’t know if it has relevance to ASOIAF series. If the contents of the letter are simply that the Dornish are blackmailing Aegon in some way (which seems the most logical explanation right now), then sure, it would be irrelevant.

However, and I’m just wildly speculating now, if it has relevance to TPTWP in some manner, or the magic of the Targaryens, or any number of other important issues, then it would be relevant.

That’s actually why this is one of the few issues that I don’t mind people wildly speculating on. It’s a legitimate mystery, which may in fact have relevance to the story. Or it may not, we don't know. 

[Seams]

I don't expect GRRM will spell out for us the contents of the historic letter, but I expect it does have relevance to the story unfolding in ASOIAF. Because of the way he uses the history and legends of the various cultures to foreshadow contemporary events, an historic event like the letter from Dorne - that made it into TWOIAF - will probably have an echo in the stories we are following now.

My guess about relevance was partially outlined in my earlier comment on this thread. The delegation from Dorne delivering the dragon skull to Aegon seems parallel to the delivery of Ser Gregor's skull to Dorne in the modern events - both are violent monsters. However, the dragon skull is not accompanied by the bones of the beloved sister in the historic incident. Why those bones were not returned is a key part of the mystery. In the modern incident, Elia's bones were returned long before Gregor Clegane's skull was sent to Dorne.

Also in the contemporary story we have the missing bones of Ned Stark. Is there a parallel here? The important letter in the Stark story might be Robb's will or it might be the pink letter recently received by Jon Snow. We think we know the contents of both of these documents, but both are attached to mysteries: will Robb's will be revealed in time to put Jon Snow in a position of power in the north and/or is the pink letter legitimate and true?

Or the important letter in the Stark story might be the one received by Catelyn in the early chapters of AGoT, telling her that the Lannisters had killed Jon Arryn. The reader has been led to believe that letter was false. Like Aegon, Catelyn burned the letter and she soon had blood on her palm (because of the dagger cut from the mysterious catspaw). If this parallel is true, it might imply that the contents of the historic Dornish letter were fake - somehow Dorne knew how to deflect Aegon's resolve away from attacks on Dorne and to redirect his attention elsewhere.

The monster skull in the Stark story might be the head of the direwolf Grey Wind, reportedly sewn onto the body of the decapitated Robb Stark. Joffrey demanded that Robb Stark's head be brought to King's Landing, iirc, and he was going to make Sansa see it or eat it or something awful. Or maybe the monster skull was the head of Ned or of Septa Mordane, both displayed on the walls of Maegor's Holdfast.

There is a more literal "monster" skull in the Stark story - Rattleshirt wears the skull of a giant as a helmet. I share the opinion that Rattleshirt is a symbolic version of Ned Stark, but that is a subject for another thread.

To me, the top secret Dornish letter represents the way that Prince Doran and the Martells play the game of thrones: very close to the vest with their strategy and very patiently with the pieces moved into place very slowly over a long period of time. People think that Dorne isn't even playing the game, they are so stealthy and secretive in their approach. Just as the contents of the letter were secret, Doran kept his strategy secret even from his heir, Arianne. Over a period of many weeks, he allowed her to realize that he wanted her to play cyvasse and that this game was a symbol of his long-term, grass-and-snake strategy for upholding Dorne's interests and avenging the death of Elia. But there is a second game in Dorne, played in the water garden. A small child sits on the shoulders of the older child and tries to knock over another pair of children similarly situated. Even if people catch onto Doran quietly playing his cyvasse-like game of thrones, they may not realize that he can also play this water garden game of shoving.

If we are supposed to compare the monster skull / unknown letter from the Aegon the Conqueror incident to contemporary events, it does seem as if there is an inversion: Aegon's sister died in Dorne; Doran's sister died in King's Landing. The Martells sent the dragon skull back to Aegon; the Lannisters sent Ser Gregor's skull to Doran. So maybe we should be looking at Prince Doran in the Aegon role (roughly - the echo of historic or legendary events is never an exact match for the old story). We know that he would like to obtain control of a dragon. Perhaps he will be the one to receive a mysterious letter of some kind.

Or, again, the letter may have already been received: the betrothal pact promising Arianne and Viserys would wed. This was a secret document that could have been a game changer if Viserys had lived. Maybe the parallel between the historic Dornish letter and contemporary events ended when Quentyn presented the letter to Dany and everyone laughed at the now-worthless document.

So the letter is trivial only if you don't want to mine the subtext of the novels. I realize that many people want only the plot and that is a perfectly legitimate way to enjoy the books. The parallels between the history and current events are there, though, if people want to sort them out.

 

 

[Fire Eater]

On 1/31/2018 at 6:14 AM, Lord Varys said:

I wasn't referring to anything you wrote there - which would be obvious to you if you had carefully read all the other postings in this thread - I was commenting on the idea that Rhaenys may have incriminating evidence proving that Aenys was not Aegon's son - in the form of letters or other written documents - on her body when Meraxes crashed.

The idea that the Martells could use Rhaenys - and anything she might have known - as a weapon to seriously harm the Targaryens is simply not very likely. Everything Rhaenys may have said, every 'proof' they may have, could be easily enough dismissed as forced confessions under torture or enemy propaganda.

My mistake. 

Rhaenys was Aegon's co-Queen. One would have a to be an idiot not to see her immediate value. She could be used as leverage to bring Aegon to the negotiating table. 

On 1/31/2018 at 6:14 AM, Lord Varys said:

How do you know where Meria Martell throughout the war between the Targaryens and Dorne? We have no information on her movements and whereabouts. But we do know she clearly wasn't at Sunspear when the Targaryens took it. She returned for the Defenestration of Sunspear, though.

This isn't the main point, though. The point is that the Ullers would have been the ones to capture Rhaenys after her fall, and while the Martells may have wanted to treat her more kindly (or not) they likely were not the first ones to get to her.

Eventually the Martells would have gotten hold of her, of course. Else Nymor couldn't have sent Aegon a letter containing information on Rhaenys (or offered to do something with her or her remains).

Meria would be at Sunspear since I doubt she would be in the field leading given she is blind and old. She would need to stay at Sunspear, at one spot to serve as a command center. 

The Ullers would likely go to their overlords regarding what to do with her first, as Greenbeard said "a peasant may skin a common squirrel for his pot, but if he finds a gold squirrel in his tree he takes it to his lord, or he will wish he did."

On 1/31/2018 at 6:14 AM, Lord Varys said:

That is crude speculation. For all we know there could have been multiple Dornish houses assembled at Hellholt to defend the castle against the dragons. Not to mention that the kind of warfare the Dornishmen were employing most definitely is not raven-based. There would be messengers and riders going back and forth between the various castles, camps, and Sunspear to an insane degree.

You also do realize that Meraxes fell in 10 AC, and Deria only went to King's Landing in 14 AC, four years later, right?

Any letter of Rhaenys' written shortly before her death - if said death occurred days or weeks after the fall - would have had little or no impact on Aegon in relation to the continuation of the war. This voice of Rhaenys would have been a distant and dead voice, not one relevant to the present-day politics.

One could make the case if Aegon had wept instead of clenching the letter as hard as he did.

If one wants to go with the idea that the letter referred to Rhaenys then the best guess would be that she may have indeed been badly injured and was later on nursed back to health, etc. only to be now threatened with the worst torture imaginable for the remainder of her long, long life should Aegon not back that.

The whole thing makes most sense as a successful attempt of blackmail than anything else.

Such a communication system would still be horse-based, and on horseback it would still take a message at the very least a week to reach Sunspear, and another to send a message back. 

Of course, I know the timeline. 

Aegon dearly loved his wife, and you think a letter containing her last words wouldn't mean anything to him? He was hardened to keep the war going largely as a result of her death, so she still had some effect on him. 

Why couldn't Aegon just demand his wife back? He undoubtedly would have if he knew she was still alive. He had the leverage as Deria was in his power, he had the dragons and the larger army. A threat like that wouldn't have swayed him, but more likely enraged him. It also undoes the gesture of goodwill by returning Meraxes's skull. There is also another issue your blackmail theory overlooks: if Nymor sent an offer of peace with a threat like that, why would he send his daughter and heir, since he would be putting her life at risk? She would be at risk of being a target for Aegon's wrath. He'd also have essentially just handed Aegon a valuable hostage he could use to counter Nymor's threats against Rhaenys. 

On 1/31/2018 at 6:14 AM, Lord Varys said:

Nope. Basic human understanding and character-building necessitates that a man who loved his sister and wife as much as Aegon supposedly did wouldn't react with barely suppressed rage/anger but rather with grief, relief, and perhaps even joy (over receiving one last message from the beloved from beyond the grave).

The idea that Aegon reacted the way he did because he received a positive message from Rhaenys simply makes no sense.

His hand was around the letter. He was clearly giving an emotional response as it was a letter from his late wife that he missed, and it also depends what was in it that she wrote. It does make sense. He would have felt a complex mixture of grief, love, sadness, and maybe some anger and relief. We don't get much about Aegon given the man is described as an enigmatic, and so we don't really know for certainty much of his heart or how he would respond. 

On 1/31/2018 at 6:14 AM, Lord Varys said:

You explained nothing. There would be no reason for the Martells to make a secret about that, or the letter. Princess Deria could have come to KL to bring both the dragon skull and the remains of Rhaenys (Aegon could then inter them on Dragonstone or wherever he saw fit). And if the letter had been written by Rhaenys - or contained sections written by Rhaenys - Deria could have made a public show out of that, having the voice of Queen Rhaenys urge her brother and sister to work for peace in front of the entire court.

That would have made a much stronger impact than a private letter - after all, private letters can be ignored, can't they? And why on earth would Aegon immediately burn a letter written by his beloved Rhaenys? It makes no sense.

The correct phrasing is that 'it was said, King Aegon was determined to refuse the offer'. It is not said that this was an undisputed fact. Be that as it may, it is pretty clear that the best way to interpret the letter is that it was some kind of successful blackmail.

Yes, she could have. I think Deria handed Aegon the letter simply because it was privately addressed to him. Why would Aegon burn a letter to Rhaenys? Why did Martha Washington burn all her letters to her husband, George, after he died? Aegon usually kept to himself, and was a pretty private person. 

Aegon would seem determined to refuse to offer given he lost his wife, his Hand lost his hand and he lost a number of bannermen. Again, the blackmail theory falls apart with the presence of Deria amongst other things. 

On 1/31/2018 at 6:14 AM, Lord Varys said:

Sure, but Prince Nymor was ailing old man. He, personally, had nothing to live for, so why not go down knowing that the Faceless Men would eradicate the Targaryen line for him? Dorne would no longer burn if there were no longer any dragonriders to ride those beasts...

It would also have been successful blackmail - Aegon caring more about Aenys than about subduing Dorne. And that's not far-fetched at all.

But what about Nymor's people? You think he didn't take the suffering from Aegon's wroth into account? Also, you're forgetting Aegon still had another son besides Aenys: Maegor (who was around 2). Killing Aenys wouldn't extinguish the Targaryen line. 

 

On 1/31/2018 at 6:14 AM, Lord Varys said:

Because it might have been risky doing that? It could have been a horn like Dragonbinder (or something similar), involving blood magic/sacrifices to make it work, with success not being guaranteed. Not to mention, you know, that Meria reserved the weapon to defend Sunspear against a dragon attack - which then could explain why the Targaryens did not, in fact, attack Sunspear with their dragons.

The letter pretty much indicates that Aegon can be blackmailed, yes.

The peace treaty turned out to be a success. It was Prince Nymor who would have threatened to assassinate Aenys, not Deria. And this was during war times. Both the Targaryens and the Martells put bounties on the heads of each other and their lords, resulting in many assassinations during the course of the war, including multiple attempts to murder Aegon and Visenya. Yet Aegon still received Deria's party later on, just as Deria later on received Aegon and Aenys.

Politicians can differentiate between war and peace, you know.

Or as the letters they sent to the Dornish lords suggest, they were avoiding Sunspear to drive a wedge between them and their bannermen? It also would still have left the rest of Dorne at risk. 

Unless we are given details explicitly saying so, I don't think that is a confirmation. I still doubt blackmail would have moved Aegon. 

You're saying Deria had no idea what was in the letter she handed to Aegon? That Nymor never confided in her his plans? That she wasn't in on her father's plans doesn't make sense. Of course, she would have been in on it. I doubt Aegon would have wanted to celebrate with her with his son that was threatened. Killing Aegon's son would have risked a very bloody retribution.