Did Littlefinger influece Joffrey in executing Ned?

[HoodedCrow]

While Joffrey is impulsive and violent all on his lonesome, it would be easy to manipulate him. Say, “Your father, The Great King Robert”,was a real man, a strong king, and he would have had an acknowledged traitor beheaded, despite all that womanly oversoftness.”

[Ygrain]

8 hours ago, Lady Dacey said:

Has this quote been brought up? 

Varys seems to think someone influenced Joffrey, I wonder who that might be 

It hasn't! A good catch - when Joffrey pulled his stunt, Varys must have figured out. LF's nonreaction while everyone else was fussing would have been telling in retrospect, and a remark like the one below would also click in its place.

5 hours ago, HoodedCrow said:

While Joffrey is impulsive and violent all on his lonesome, it would be easy to manipulate him. Say, “Your father, The Great King Robert”,was a real man, a strong king, and he would have had an acknowledged traitor beheaded, despite all that womanly oversoftness.”

Lol, can't help getting back to that crackpot of mine - if LF played on Joff's daddy issues, convincing him to try some whoring  would be easy peasy.

- On a more reasonable note:

The boy gave his grandfather a defiant look. “A strong king acts boldly, he doesn’t just talk.”

...

“There is a long league’s worth of difference between willful and stupid. ‘A strong king acts boldly?’ Who told him that?”
“Not me, I promise you,” said Cersei. “Most like it was something he heard Robert say...”
“The part about you hiding under Casterly Rock does sound like Robert.” Tyrion didn’t want Lord Tywin forgetting that bit.
“Yes, I recall now,” Cersei said, “Robert often told Joff that a king must be bold.”

Now... did Cersei really remember Robert saying such a thing, or did she just want to shrug the blame ASAP? What if this was LF again? Now, that would be "hidden influence" alright, molding the boy right under his family's noses! It has been discussed many times who Joffrey turned out the way he was, and natural disposition as well as parenting negligence definitely played a role, but the right whispering at a right time might also have contributed. Hm. LF, the mastermind of everything. I am so looking forward to his demise!

[Lost Melnibonean]

9 hours ago, Ygrain said:

It hasn't! A good catch - when Joffrey pulled his stunt, Varys must have figured out. LF's nonreaction while everyone else was fussing would have been telling in retrospect, and a remark like the one below would also click in its place.

Lol, can't help getting back to that crackpot of mine - if LF played on Joff's daddy issues, convincing him to try some whoring  would be easy peasy.

- On a more reasonable note:

The boy gave his grandfather a defiant look. “A strong king acts boldly, he doesn’t just talk.”

...

“There is a long league’s worth of difference between willful and stupid. ‘A strong king acts boldly?’ Who told him that?”
“Not me, I promise you,” said Cersei. “Most like it was something he heard Robert say...”
“The part about you hiding under Casterly Rock does sound like Robert.” Tyrion didn’t want Lord Tywin forgetting that bit.
“Yes, I recall now,” Cersei said, “Robert often told Joff that a king must be bold.”

Now... did Cersei really remember Robert saying such a thing, or did she just want to shrug the blame ASAP? What if this was LF again? Now, that would be "hidden influence" alright, molding the boy right under his family's noses! It has been discussed many times who Joffrey turned out the way he was, and natural disposition as well as parenting negligence definitely played a role, but the right whispering at a right time might also have contributed. Hm. LF, the mastermind of everything. I am so looking forward to his demise!

Nice. 

[Lollygag]

19 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Both of those quotes are long after both Joffrey and Tywin are dead. With Joffrey as king and Tywin as hand, LF would have plenty of chaos within the halls of government and among House Lannister, with Tywin there to prevent anything completely outrageous from happening. We've already seen how LF is one of the few people on the planet who knows how to manipulate Joff, which gives him far more control over his actions than Tommen's, who would be controlled by Tywin.

In what way is Joffrey a threat to Sansa that Cersei is not? Joff only gave her a few beatings; Cersei wants her head.

Sorry, but you cannot have chaos for your intended results and on your timetable. That runs counter to the very definition of chaos.

Yes, I'm well aware that those quotes are well after AGOT. They speak to how LF thinks and operates. I'm not going to explain to you the difference between Joff and Cersei where Sansa's safety is concerned. Either you need to reread the books for both character and plot or you're being intentionally and arbitrarily difficult. 

I don't even understand how your last sentence even relates to book LF. Show LF, maybe. 

[Lord Varys]

The main clue as to why Littlefinger has to have been involved in Ned's execution is the speed in which Slynt executed the command (Payne not so much - he is a Lannister man, and may be as naturally inclined to do Joff's bidding as, say, the Hound is).

We have to keep in mind that this is a regency government threatened from all sides - Renly (backed by the Reach), Stannis, the Starks and Tullys, and possibly even the Dornishmen and the Vale - and King Joffrey doesn't rule in his own right. His mother controls the king's government as the Queen Regent, and her policy - in which she was at least officially supported by the Small Council - was to pardon Eddard Stark and send him to the Wall.

Were Joffrey and adult king ruling in his own right - and completely in control of his own court - it would make sense that his word alone would have caused Slynt and his men to act as quickly as they did.

But he is not.

Cersei's people apparently briefed the High Septon and the Most Devout that Ned would be pardoned - that's why they agreed to allow Ned to make his confession in front of the Great Sept, after all - and the same people should also have briefed Slynt, etc. that Ned would be pardoned, too.

In that sense, Joff's actual command should have caused confusion and irritation not only among the people at the dais but also the men executing the command. But that didn't happen. That means that Slynt likely knew what was coming.

Joffrey wouldn't have been able to set this up all by himself - not without Cersei and Varys realizing what was going. That would have been Littlefinger's doing.

However, the idea that we are talking subtle manipulation here is not very likely. Something like that has to be carefully preplanned. Littlefinger has to make sure that Joff is going to sentence Ned to death. He also has to be sure that the men are going to execute the royal command without delay.

Littlefinger must have convinced Joff that it was the right thing to execute Ned, something everybody - including his own mother - secretly expected him to do because it was something a real/strong king would do. And that's not something the boy would have understood if Littlefinger had just given him a few lines.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The main clue as to why Littlefinger has to have been involved in Ned's execution is the speed in which Slynt executed the command (Payne not so much - he is a Lannister man, and may be as naturally inclined to do Joff's bidding as, say, the Hound is).

The involvement of Payne intrigues me. It’s implied that he did it in exchange for Ice (though never confirmed), but then the sword is taken away from him.

Jaime believes Payne was simply Tywin’s man, and no-one else’s, but I’m not so certain. If LF or someone else had found a way to get him into their camp then it adds a whole new level of intrigue, given his proximity to Jaime currently and the court historically. I’m currently using the working assumption that he’s Littlefinger’s creature, purely on the basis of his role in the execution which I’m convinced LF was behind. Though to what end and in what way I have no idea.

Another reason he behaved like that, of course, is he’s just a nutter who loves cutting off people’s heads, and will jump at the chance given any excuse.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

The involvement of Payne intrigues me. It’s implied that he did it in exchange for Ice (though never confirmed), but then the sword is taken away from him.

The text implies Cersei allowed Payne to keep the sword. There was likely no plan to any of that, nor any reason to believe that Payne actually coveted Ice.

1 hour ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Jaime believes Payne was simply Tywin’s man, and no-one else’s, but I’m not so certain. If LF or someone else had found a way to get him into their camp then it adds a whole new level of intrigue, given his proximity to Jaime currently and the court historically. I’m currently using the working assumption that he’s Littlefinger’s creature, purely on the basis of his role in the execution which I’m convinced LF was behind. Though to what end and in what way I have no idea.

In light of the fact how Payne is revealed to live - or rather: exist - in AFfC does not make it very likely that a man like him so much as acknowledged Littlefinger's existence. The man cannot speak. And he cannot write, either. Communication with him would be rather one-sided.

Littlefinger isn't the type of person a man like Payne - who, as commander of Tywin's personal guard during the Aerys' reign, would have been a very trusted and loyal Lannister retainer - would gravitate towards, even if we assume Littlefinger had something to offer him.

Considering that Payne keeps his sword in good shape - unlike himself or the place he lives - strongly indicates that he indeed lives to kill people.

And he had personal issues with Lord Eddard after the man decided to send Dondarrion instead of him - the King's Justice - to deal with Gregor Clegane.

Those could have been enough for him to react as quickly as he did.

But, sure, Littlefinger/Slynt could also have sent men to Payne informing him of what was about to happen, giving him the impression there was a change of plans.

[John Suburbs]

7 hours ago, Lollygag said:

Yes, I'm well aware that those quotes are well after AGOT. They speak to how LF thinks and operates. I'm not going to explain to you the difference between Joff and Cersei where Sansa's safety is concerned. Either you need to reread the books for both character and plot or you're being intentionally and arbitrarily difficult. 

I don't even understand how your last sentence even relates to book LF. Show LF, maybe. 

At the time of your quotes, Cersei is a much more serious threat to Sansa than Joffrey ever was. Joffrey had Sansa beaten with the flats of swords, but he had no intention of killing her. Cersei will torture Sansa mercilessly and then take her head in a big public event.

Your quotes speak to how LF was thinking and operating at the time they were said; that he didn't expect Cersei to foul things up so quickly. They can in no way be used to justify the notion that he wanted Tommen on the throne in the interests of peace and stability. LF has shown his ability to manipulate Joff to do all kinds of things that he (Joff) was too stupid to realize were contrary to his interests. There is absolutely no reason why he would give up that kind of influence over the most powerful person in the kingdom just to "keep his foes confused."

Book Littlefinger makes it very clear that he thrives on chaos, as your own quote attests, literally:

Quote

. . . it is a good thing that I thrive on chaos.

By definition, chaos is uncontrollable, so your contention that Littlefinger only wants chaos "on his own timetable with certain results intended" is simply not possible. With Joffrey, LF can influence events for his own purposes, but with Tommen he has no influence at all. Tommen's actions will be directed by Tywin, who most certainly will not foment chaos for Littlefinger's benefit.

[Fire Eater]

I agree with this theory completely. Littlefinger likely knew how to manipulate Joffrey, and GRRM said he had a certain influence over the boy. 

I am also reminded of this quote from ADwD Cersei II: 

Quote

It came to her suddenly that she had stood in this very spot before, on the day Lord Eddard Stark had lost his head. That was not supposed to happen. Joff was supposed to spare his life and send him to the Wall. Stark's eldest son would have followed him as Lord of Winterfell, but Sansa would have stayed at court, a hostage. Varys and Littlefinger had worked out the terms, and Ned Stark had swallowed his precious honor and confessed his treason to save his daughter's empty little head. I would have made Sansa a good marriage. A Lannister marriage. Not Joff, of course, but Lancel might have suited, or one of his younger brothers. Petyr Baelish had offered to wed the girl himself, she recalled, but of course that was impossible; he was much too lowborn. If Joff had only done as he was told, Winterfell would never have gone to war, and Father would have dealt with Robert's brothers.

Thinking about how Ned's execution wasn't supposed to happen, and Joffrey was supposed to spare him. One detail she mentions that she misses is that Littlefinger offered to marry Sansa, but Cersei rejected his request. He likely was expecting Sansa as his reward for helping Cersei with her coup, but then in another of her many political miscalculations, rejected it, pissing him off. Littlefinger's history shows that he has never taken rejection well, especially if it involves Stark women, and he has a vindictive streak. He likely manipulated Joffrey into executing Ned to screw Cersei, and get back at her for rejecting his offer. 

[Lord Wraith]

On 1/31/2018 at 0:20 AM, Gwindor said:

This is of course possible, but I don't think it is the case.

First, there is no need for any influence on Joffrey for him to decide to execute Ned on a whim, and second, I personally think it really makes a better story without Littlefinger's involvement.

I imagine Joffrey standing there, in front of a huge crowd, having just been crowned, seeing a man he hates powerless and humiliated, and realizing he can actually do anything he wants with his prisoner. He is the king, it is for him to decide such matters, he doesn't need anyone's briefing on what to do. He bathes in his newly acquired feeling of power and everyone's attention, and wants to make a glorious impression in the beginning of his reign, and what better way to do it, in this sadistic little mind of his, than to show everyone he is not to be messed with? Yes, he's been told by his mother and Varys to spare Ned's life, and Sansa begged for it, but he's the king, isn't he? He can rule in his own right, and he'll show them just how he intends to rule: "Ser Ilyn, bring me his head!"

It's an exercise of his new power, like cutting at the air with a new sword, or putting a new horse to a gallop.

If the execution of Eddard Stark is indeed Joffrey's impulsive decision, then this episode demonstrates a point: a smart plan, carefully constructed by a mastermind player (Varys), can go awry not only because of a rival mastermind's (Littlefinger's) meddling, but because even the greatest player of the Game cannot foresee all the intricate workings of the mysterious thing called Power. "Power resides where men believe it resides" - this whole riddle of Varys and his own answer to it is, essentially, his musings on this accident. He had a plan on how to deal with a dangerous situation and keep it under as much control as possible, and it all breaks down not because someone outsmarted him, but simply because of a whim of a teenage king who at the moment appeared to the people to wield real power. A usual pawn momentarily becomes a player.

If, on the other hand, we assume that Littlefinger convinced Joffrey to execute Ned, then all the thematic brilliance outlined in the previous paragraph is lost. Varys' plan failed because Littlefinger worked against it. Players remain players, and pawns remain pawns. To me it seems boring in comparison, because it removes Joffrey from the list of people directly responsible for the War of the Five Kings, making him instead merely a pawn of Littlefinger. In my opinion, the brilliance of this war's story lies to a great extent in the complexity and diversity of reasons leading to it, and this version of events simplifies it.

As to the idea that Littlefinger prudently got rid of Ned to ensure his safety because the truth about the dagger might have come out. While it might be tempting to assume Littlefinger's scheming in a lot of things that end up working in his favor, such an approach ignores an important aspect of his character. He is not one to carefully construct elaborate plans and think of all the details like Varys or Doran Martell. He relies much more on his ability to thrive on chaos, to see opportunities and use them. His modus operandi seems to be 'break the current order of things and strive for as good a position as possible in the new order that will be built', not 'make specific steps to achieve a specific goal'. He's a gambler, an improviser. We've seen numerous examples of his playing with fire, counting that in the chaos that ensues he'll be able to spontaneously come up with a solution and find himself on top. In other words, not everything that happens is a plan of Littlefinger, and putting himself into a situation he doesn't currently know how to handle is a normal practice for him, I even suspect he enjoys this and finds excitement in such dangerous situations.

In short:

• at first glance, it looks like Joffrey decided to execute Ned on his own;
• there is no reason to think it is implausible or uncharacteristic of Joffrey;
• assuming Littlefinger's influence, while plausible, adds nothing valuable to the story, and, most importantly:
• it actually takes quite a bit of complexity away from the story, making it less interesting (IMHO, of course). If an assumption (which, importantly, the text does not in any way compel us to make) makes the story poorer, I say to hell with the assumption

I agree with most of this. Joffrey is the chaos element that not even the greatest players can predict. While Baelish has an impressive reach he isn't behind everything bad that happens to the Starks.

On 1/31/2018 at 2:33 AM, Lollygag said:

I don't have any real proof for this, but I'm always on the lookout for proof that Varys and LF are frenemies and that their relationship may be more like reality-show contestants who will use each other as needed in the game but all bets are off for the end result. This would allow each to further each other's game by pooling resources, it would allow for more info to figure each other out, and I think both are confident enough in themselves and their game-playing to believe that they can play this close together yet still properly cloak their own real intentions.

With the dagger, Varys aids LF in his game and furthers LF's ends, but it also allows Varys a window into what LF is doing. LF is confident enough to think he can expose himself to a certain degree and still leave Varys more or less in the dark about the big picture. Varys is doing the same with LF. I admit some bias here. LF's and Varys' relationship is a lot more interesting to me if they operate in this fashion rather than being straight up enemies.

This may be a hint as to this relationship.Tyrion notes that Varys can't be trusted. He asks Varys about LF's plans and Varys gives the dumbest answer ever: maybe he had an accident. This just really sounds like Varys is covering for LF to me, probably because LF's doings were useful to Varys in some way and he didn't want Tyrion to interfere.

ACOK Tyrion IX

Out on the river, Bold Wind unshipped her oars and glided downstream in the wake of Seaswift. Last came King Robert's Hammer, the might of the royal fleet . . . or at least that portion that had not fled to Dragonstone last year with Stannis. Tyrion had chosen the ships with care, avoiding any whose captains might be of doubtful loyalty, according to Varys . . . but as Varys himself was of doubtful loyalty, a certain amount of apprehension remained. I rely too much on Varys, he reflected. I need my own informers. Not that I'd trust them either. Trust would get you killed.

He wondered again about Littlefinger. There had been no word from Petyr Baelish since he had ridden off for Bitterbridge. That might mean nothing—or everything. Even Varys could not say. The eunuch had suggested that perhaps Littlefinger had met some misfortune on the roads. He might even be slain. Tyrion had snorted in derision. "If Littlefinger is dead, then I'm a giant." More likely, the Tyrells were balking at the proposed marriage. Tyrion could scarcely blame them. If I were Mace Tyrell, I would sooner have Joffrey's head on a pike than his cock in my daughter.

 

As I hold this view, I doubt Varys is being completely forthcoming with Illyrio.

If Varys' intentions to save Ned are genuine, then Illyrio must be in the dark about this otherwise he'd not have cavalierly offered to just knock Ned off and Varys would have replied to the effect that Ned could be useful or somesuch. Instead, Varys says more or less, "it's complicated".

AGOT Arya III

"If one Hand can die, why not a second?" replied the man with the accent and the forked yellow beard. "You have danced the dance before, my friend." He was no one Arya had ever seen before, she was certain of it. Grossly fat, yet he seemed to walk lightly, carrying his weight on the balls of his feet as a water dancer might. His rings glimmered in the torchlight, red-gold and pale silver, crusted with rubies, sapphires, slitted yellow tiger eyes. Every finger wore a ring; some had two.

"Before is not now, and this Hand is not the other," the scarred man said as they stepped out into the hall. Still as stone, Arya told herself, quiet as a shadow. Blinded by the blaze of their own torch, they did not see her pressed flat against the stone, only a few feet away.

If Varys is keeping things from Illyrio, then this may also not be true:

Littlefinger … the gods only know what game Littlefinger is playing.

AGOT Arya III

The one in the steel cap, he had the torch, he said that they had to hurry. I think he was a wizard."

"A wizard," said Ned, unsmiling. "Did he have a long white beard and tall pointed hat speckled with stars?"

"No! It wasn't like Old Nan's stories. He didn't look like a wizard, but the fat one said he was."

Varys said gods only know what game LF is playing and then Arya notes that Varys is a wizard. Perhaps a hint that Varys does know more than he’s telling.

Indeed it is curious. The show has played up the rivalry between Baelish and Varys. Part of me wonders if they are simply running a brilliant two man con on Westeros. Probably not, but I don't seem them as antagonistic. Baelish in particular seems to be willing to work with anyone as long as it improves his position.

Also I think his betrayal of the Starks was not part of some Master plan. He just didn't want Stannis on the throne which Ned insisted on. Which is why he sold them out after Renly had left and Ned was alone.

On 1/31/2018 at 4:31 PM, Lady Dacey said:

Has this quote been brought up? 

Varys seems to think someone influenced Joffrey, I wonder who that might be 

True but Varys is trying to get Tyrion on his side against Baelish at this time. Baelish and Varys are both well versed in deceit. Just because someone is trying to discredit a rival doesn't make it true.

[Ygrain]

2 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

One detail she mentions that she misses is that Littlefinger offered to marry Sansa, but Cersei rejected his request. He likely was expecting Sansa as his reward for helping Cersei with her coup, but then in another of her many political miscalculations, rejected it, pissing him off. Littlefinger's history shows that he has never taken rejection well, especially if it involves Stark women, and he has a vindictive streak. He likely manipulated Joffrey into executing Ned to screw Cersei, and get back at her for rejecting his offer. 

I agree that LF didn't take the rejection well but I believe that Ned's execution was the plan the whole time, even if she had agreed. What it might have prompted was the murder of Joffrey, because that hit Cersei hard and because at that time, Joffrey was the one supposed to marry Sansa.

[Lollygag]

3 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Indeed it is curious. The show has played up the rivalry between Baelish and Varys. Part of me wonders if they are simply running a brilliant two man con on Westeros. Probably not, but I don't seem them as antagonistic. Baelish in particular seems to be willing to work with anyone as long as it improves his position.

Sometimes I wonder if some of the show content isn’t really intended as a red herring for book plots. Or maybe it's lazy writing and they just sometimes roll with the general consensus of how most expect the plot to go.

I think there's some basis to speculate that they're running a two-man con.

Varys talks of the common folk and LF has been held down by his low birth. Varys claims rather altruist purposes and LF is unapologetically selfish (evil?), but their ends may really not be that far apart. LF is collecting high-born bastards and disenfranchised true-borns and Varys has a Targ who was raised outside of Westeros’ system as a commoner, albeit a very educated one.

Put someone raised outside of Westeros’ traditions and establishment mentality (modelled after Egg’s experiences?)  on the IT and LF installs bastards (screwed by Westeros’ system or raised ignorant of it as was Mya who didn’t understand why she couldn’t be with Mychel) or “bastardized” true-borns who are also raised outside of Westeros’ traditions and systems (the Stark kids, Tyrek maybe) as heads of the major houses and you have the makings of really shaking up Westeros and beginning a deconstruction the power stranglehold of the major houses in favor of the lower classes.

 

[Lollygag]

9 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

At the time of your quotes, Cersei is a much more serious threat to Sansa than Joffrey ever was. Joffrey had Sansa beaten with the flats of swords, but he had no intention of killing her. Cersei will torture Sansa mercilessly and then take her head in a big public event.

Your quotes speak to how LF was thinking and operating at the time they were said; that he didn't expect Cersei to foul things up so quickly. They can in no way be used to justify the notion that he wanted Tommen on the throne in the interests of peace and stability. LF has shown his ability to manipulate Joff to do all kinds of things that he (Joff) was too stupid to realize were contrary to his interests. There is absolutely no reason why he would give up that kind of influence over the most powerful person in the kingdom just to "keep his foes confused."

Book Littlefinger makes it very clear that he thrives on chaos, as your own quote attests, literally:

By definition, chaos is uncontrollable, so your contention that Littlefinger only wants chaos "on his own timetable with certain results intended" is simply not possible. With Joffrey, LF can influence events for his own purposes, but with Tommen he has no influence at all. Tommen's actions will be directed by Tywin, who most certainly will not foment chaos for Littlefinger's benefit.

Maybe I'm tired but I feel like you're speaking another language. 

I don't know what you're doing with comparing Joff and Cersei here. Joff is dead at the time of the quotes in AFFC. And Cersei has no intention of hurting Sansa until LF frames Sansa for Joff's murder so Cersei hurting Sansa can't be a reason for LF's favoring Joff. 

And LF was complicit and arguably was the mastermind of Joff's murder so I don't get you saying he had no reason to kill him when he actually was a part of exactly that. Do you have some other theory here or something?

And how much influence can he have over Joff from the Vale? Ravens aren't that awesome. And never mind an assertion that Joff can be controlled by LF or anyone. That's a gross misread of plot and character. Convincing a homicidal nut like Joff to murder someone is about as challenging as convincing a child to eat candy and LF's convincing Joff to execute Ned isn't even canon, it's only theory. GRRM only said LF only had "a certain influence" IIRC. And where do you get this idea that LF cares about Tommen? LF is talking about the 3 Queens, not Tommen who at present rules only kittens.

Yeah, the chaos quote. You've tossed out everything except that phrase and superglued your own meaning on it. It's actually a great example of how one can get into trouble in this series when you pull a sentence (or in this case part of a sentence) out of context. Context determines interpretation and GRRM often leaves really nice clues as to how to interpret things before and after a statement. Again, what you're talking about sounds like that nonsense character Show LF grafted onto Book LF's arc.

You made contradictory statements here: "By definition, chaos is uncontrollable, so your contention that Littlefinger only wants chaos "on his own timetable with certain results intended" is simply not possible" and "With Joffrey, LF can influence events for his own purposes, but with Tommen he has no influence at all. Tommen's actions will be directed by Tywin, who most certainly will not foment chaos for Littlefinger's benefit." Chaos is uncontrollable and can't be used with certain results intended but LF's use of Joff and Tommen can influence events to his benefit? 

You said chaos is uncontrollable. LF uses the word "plan". It's another way of saying trying to control something. And not only is he planning, he's planning at least four or five years in advance. Multiple things, too. He uses the word "seeds" which is plural. 

plan

[plan]

NOUN

1. a detailed proposal for doing or achieving something:

   "the UN peace plan"

   synonyms: procedure · scheme · strategy · idea · proposal ·

   [more]
2. (plans)

   an intention or decision about what one is going to do:

   "I have no plans to retire"

   synonyms: intention · aim · idea · intent · objective · object · goal ·

   [more]
3. a detailed diagram, drawing, or program, in particular.

VERB

1. decide on and arrange in advance:

   "they were planning a trip to Egypt" ·

   [more]

   synonyms: organize · arrange · work out · design · outline · map out ·

   [more]
2. design or make a plan of (something to be made or built):

   "they were planning a garden"

   synonyms: design · draw up · sketch out · map out

AFFC Alayne I

"—I might have to remove her from the game sooner than I'd planned. Provided she does not remove herself first." Petyr teased her with a little smile. "In the game of thrones, even the humblest pieces can have wills of their own. Sometimes they refuse to make the moves you've planned for them. Mark that well, Alayne. It's a lesson that Cersei Lannister still has yet to learn. Now, don't you have some duties to perform?"

AFFC Alayne II

He did not hold her kiss against her. "You would not believe half of what is happening in King's Landing, sweetling. Cersei stumbles from one idiocy to the next, helped along by her council of the deaf, the dim, and the blind. I always anticipated that she would beggar the realm and destroy herself, but I never expected she would do it quite so fast. It is quite vexing. I had hoped to have four or five quiet years to plant some seeds and allow some fruits to ripen, but now . . . it is a good thing that I thrive on chaos. What little peace and order the five kings left us will not long survive the three queens, I fear."

 

This statement isn’t specific to AFFC (see planting seeds (notice the plural) and the planning four or five years down the road part). It’s a modus operandi. He’s not a kid throwing spitballs in the back of class making “chaos” because he’s bored and has no goals. His off-the-cuff improv with the dagger was intended to have a certain outcome. Your definition of chaos sounds like the Tasmanian Devil. LF’s stunt with the dagger is the proper use of “chaos” here. LF has the ability to turn unexpected happenings and even setbacks to his advantage (which is another way of saying "with certain results intended". 

This is very important and you need the whole sentence.

Note that he says “...BUT now...it is a good thing that I thrive on chaos.” LF’s default is to plan things out. But he’s flexible if those plans to whatever ends don’t pan out or even work against him. He also considers whether new occurrences can’t somehow become useful so he’s resourceful. But that's not what he's actually talking about here but it's a source of the confusion over the passage.  Chaos in this passage refers to what LF has had inflicted upon him (he can’t wait four or five years as he’d hoped), not chaos inflicted by LF onto others. 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In light of the fact how Payne is revealed to live - or rather: exist - in AFfC does not make it very likely that a man like him so much as acknowledged Littlefinger's existence. The man cannot speak. And he cannot write, either. Communication with him would be rather one-sided.

Yeah, communication would be difficult, as an informant he would leave a lot to be desired. We don't know he can't read or write though, only that people think he can't (I'm not advancing a "Payne can actually read and write" theory here or anything, the thought just occurred to me). However, if he can communicate in some way, and people don't know it, his usefulness as an informant suddenly sky-rockets. 

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Littlefinger isn't the type of person a man like Payne - who, as commander of Tywin's personal guard during the Aerys' reign, would have been a very trusted and loyal Lannister retainer - would gravitate towards, even if we assume Littlefinger had something to offer him.

I don't think we know enough about Payne to be certain of that. We know he is generally considered to be a loyal Lannister retainer, but that doesn't mean he is one. 

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Considering that Payne keeps his sword in good shape - unlike himself or the place he lives - strongly indicates that he indeed lives to kill people.

This is certainly the most plausible idea, granted.

 

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And he had personal issues with Lord Eddard after the man decided to send Dondarrion instead of him - the King's Justice - to deal with Gregor Clegane.

I'd forgotten about that. Excellent point. And Littlefinger warned Ned that he'd made an enemy by doing that. 

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, Ygrain said:

I agree that LF didn't take the rejection well but I believe that Ned's execution was the plan the whole time, even if she had agreed. What it might have prompted was the murder of Joffrey, because that hit Cersei hard and because at that time, Joffrey was the one supposed to marry Sansa.

It is pretty clear that Littlefinger didn't want to kill Ned until the point came he had to. He didn't even want to betray him considering that he was giving him sound advice as to how to stay in power when Robert was dying.

Varys later tells Ned that he should have listened to Littlefinger. Had he done that, he would have been confirmed as Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm.

If Ned had listened to Littlefinger's advice, Littlefinger would eventually have asked Ned for Sansa's hand. After they had put down Stannis and were making preparations to replace Joffrey with Renly.

And it is pretty clear that Littlefinger asking Cersei for Sansa's hand was supposed to be his great reward for his part in the succession crisis.

When Cersei refused to grant him that, he ensured that she and Joffrey would not thrive. Which, in turn, allowed him to help them make the necessary alliances to prevail in the end. He had all the options in his hand. He could help them with Lysa and the Vale, he could help them with the Tyrells, he could have possibly also have helped them with the Tullys and the Starks if push had come to shove.

As to the general sequence of events, one has to keep certain points in mind:

It is Slynt who first gets Harrenhal, not Littlefinger, indicating that Littlefinger's part in securing the City Watch for Cersei was either irrelevant - or seen as irrelevant by Cersei and Slynt. After all, Cersei is a Lannister of Casterly Rock. She controls much more money than Master of Coin of a broke king could ever hope to control. Slynt may have already been inclined to side with Cersei before Littlefinger even approached him. In fact, that's what Tyrion concludes when he questions Slynt in ACoK. The man knows that Lord Eddard tried to bribe him - but how can he know that unless Littlefinger actually told him that this was the case?

Do we imagine Littlefinger actually told Slynt that Ned was trying to recruit him to his cause while also relaying Cersei's offer to him?

That doesn't make a lot of sense, does it?

Cersei isn't under the impression, either, that Littlefinger saved her ass. She credits Sansa with that, which makes little sense if we keep in mind that Littlefinger talked to Ned in the middle of the night while Sansa only went to Cersei on the next morning. If Littlefinger had sold out Ned to Cersei immediately after his talk with him, then Cersei should have known everything about Ned's plans before Sansa ever got to her. But that is apparently not the case.

One way to make sense of that is that Littlefinger actually tried to recruit Slynt to Ned's side but failed at that, because the man was already on Cersei's payroll - something she might have seen all by herself in preparation for the aftermath of Robert's successful murder.

2 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Yeah, communication would be difficult, as an informant he would leave a lot to be desired. We don't know he can't read or write though, only that people think he can't (I'm not advancing a "Payne can actually read and write" theory here or anything, the thought just occurred to me). However, if he can communicate in some way, and people don't know it, his usefulness as an informant suddenly sky-rockets. 

Littlefinger doesn't actually have a great network of informants, he just has a small group of cronies he can rely on which are mostly no-names and humble nobodies like he himself once was (Oswell Kettleblack, Lothor Brune, possibly Mandon Moore, etc.).

Payne doesn't fit that profile at all. He was a pretty important person during the reign of Aerys II, and he was given an even more prestigious position by King Robert.

You have also to keep in mind that Littlefinger's hold over men rising through the ranks lessens considerably, as he himself admits in relation to Ser Osmund Kettleblack after the man joined the Kingsguard.

In that sense it is also quite likely that Mandon Moore only tried to kill Tyrion because he himself agreed with Littlefinger that Tyrion had become a danger to his king. If he had seen Tyrion as a loyal friend/servant of Joffrey's, he may have not done what he tried to do on the Blackwater.

But, in the end, Payne would be the worst informer imaginable, even if he secretly could read and write. He is a very conspicuous man, and while he attends court during formal events, it is not likely that he can eavesdrop on people unnoticed. He is neither Mushroom nor Moon Boy, after all. He is a headsman who has a very strong tendency to inspire fear in other people.

2 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I don't think we know enough about Payne to be certain of that. We know he is generally considered to be a loyal Lannister retainer, but that doesn't mean he is one. 

Well, while we have no evidence to suspect anything else, we should go by appearances here. Kevan and Tywin seem to be pretty loyal to Ser Ilyn, too. It is the Payne name that saves Podrick from certain death, resulting in him becoming Tyrion's squire.

Chances are not that high that Kevan would have done that for Podrick if didn't have really fond memories of Ser Ilyn Payne.

And as I said above - if Payne was a loyal Lannister man then the command of his king might have been actually enough to cause him to act immediately. Nobody might have cared to brief him that Ned was not supposed to be executed. In fact, not briefing many people may have been Cersei's crucial mistake.

2 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I'd forgotten about that. Excellent point. And Littlefinger warned Ned that he'd made an enemy by doing that. 

That was actually Varys. And even Jeyne Poole later mentions that Ned should have sent Ser Ilyn because doing stuff like that was actually his duty. The whole thing apparently was a significant slight to Payne's honor. And considering how little time passed between that audience, Robert's death, and Ned's downfall Payne didn't really have a lot of time to get over the whole thing.

In combination with the fact that Payne would also have seen Ned as a filthy traitor, trying to prevent the true king's coronation and ascension, we have enough of a motivation to explain his actions.

With Slynt it is different. He is confirmed to be crooked and corrupt. Payne not so much.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

54 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

It is pretty clear that Littlefinger didn't want to kill Ned until the point came he had to. He didn't even want to betray him considering that he was giving him sound advice as to how to stay in power when Robert was dying.

Given the mischief with the dagger, and the letter Lysa sent from Jon Arryn, I think we can conclude that Littlefinger’s plan all along was war between the Lannisters and the Starks, or at the very least animosity between them. This could have been part of a deeper plot to destroy the Tullys and the Starks, or just a simple attempt to stir trouble out of which he can make gains himself. Perhaps both.

Perhaps Littlefinger’s offer to Ned was genuine, and he only made the final turn to Cersei when Ned rejected his plans. However, Littlefinger would probably have recognised that a coup against Cersei would lead to war with the West in any case, or at the very least stirred up the trouble he desired. That being said, Littlefinger must have known that the oh-so-honourable Ned wasn’t likely to go down that route, so he was probably banking on having to side with the Lannisters anyhow.

57 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

As to the general sequence of events, one has to keep certain points in mind:

It is Slynt who first gets Harrenhal, not Littlefinger, indicating that Littlefinger's part in securing the City Watch for Cersei was either irrelevant - or seen as irrelevant by Cersei and Slynt. After all, Cersei is a Lannister of Casterly Rock. She controls much more money than Master of Coin of a broke king could ever hope to control. Slynt may have already been inclined to side with Cersei before Littlefinger even approached him. In fact, that's what Tyrion concludes when he questions Slynt in ACoK. The man knows that Lord Eddard tried to bribe him - but how can he know that unless Littlefinger actually told him that this was the case?

Do we imagine Littlefinger actually told Slynt that Ned was trying to recruit him to his cause while also relaying Cersei's offer to him?

That doesn't make a lot of sense, does it?

Cersei isn't under the impression, either, that Littlefinger saved her ass. She credits Sansa with that, which makes little sense if we keep in mind that Littlefinger talked to Ned in the middle of the night while Sansa only went to Cersei on the next morning. If Littlefinger had sold out Ned to Cersei immediately after his talk with him, then Cersei should have known everything about Ned's plans before Sansa ever got to her. But that is apparently not the case.

One way to make sense of that is that Littlefinger actually tried to recruit Slynt to Ned's side but failed at that, because the man was already on Cersei's payroll - something she might have seen all by herself in preparation for the aftermath of Robert's successful murder.

Slynt may have been approached by Cersei independently, but it’s heavily hinted in the text that Littlefinger was despatched by Ned to bribe Slynt, and instead he bribed them on behalf of Cersei. It’s possible that Littlefinger just knew which way the wind was blowing, and backed the winner, and Slynt did the same thing, but I suspect at least some cahooting between them. There’s no indication that he actually tried to convince Slynt to join Ned’s team – Littlefinger surely knew Eddard was toast if he continued down the path he’d chosen.

58 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Cersei isn't under the impression, either, that Littlefinger saved her ass.

I think in one of their squabbles, Tyrion said about Littlefinger “…and delivered you Ned Stark, I know”. Or something to that effect. So Tyrion is under the impression that Cersei is under the impression that he was instrumental in defeating Ned. And Cersei doesn’t contradict him.

 

59 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But, in the end, Payne would be the worst informer imaginable, even if he secretly could read and write. He is a very conspicuous man, and while he attends court during formal events, it is not likely that he can eavesdrop on people unnoticed. He is neither Mushroom nor Moon Boy, after all. He is a headsman who has a very strong tendency to inspire fear in other people.

Yeah, you've pretty much convinced me of that. Also, Littlefinger seems to be at pains to point out all his spies and accomplises to Sansa to prove how clever he is. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

With Slynt it is different. He is confirmed to be crooked and corrupt. Payne not so much.

Just had a thought...there's a tale behind those coins...

[Damon_Tor]

On 1/29/2018 at 5:14 PM, Pride of Driftmark said:

GRRM once enigmatically admitted to Petyr's "hidden influence over Joff"

Twice. Not once. There are actually two references to this issue, and the second one, less enigmatic, doesn't seem to be getting any attention in this thread. The first, for completeness, comes from an interview with Martin and is collected in the "So Spake Martin" section of this website:

Quote

[Did Littlefinger influence Joffrey to try and kill Bran?]

Well, Littlefinger did have a certain hidden inflouence over Joff... but he was not at Winterfell, and that needs to be remembered.

That's the one everyone seems to be talking about. But the second more directly addresses this point, and it an annotation found in the "Enhanced Edition" of A Storm of Swords:

Quote

Littlefinger's secret influence on the king may provide an answer as to who whispered in Joffery's ear and convinced him to execute Eddard Stark.

Much more concrete.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Given the mischief with the dagger, and the letter Lysa sent from Jon Arryn, I think we can conclude that Littlefinger’s plan all along was war between the Lannisters and the Starks, or at the very least animosity between them. This could have been part of a deeper plot to destroy the Tullys and the Starks, or just a simple attempt to stir trouble out of which he can make gains himself. Perhaps both.

Actually, we have to separate the dagger from the letter, and keep the context of each of those things in mind.

Lysa went to Petyr when she found out that Jon intended to make Robert Stannis' ward, sending him to Dragonstone. She asked him for help and he told her to poison Jon. Considering Lysa's anxious nature it is not unlikely she needed some sort of assurance that nobody would ever suspect her (and Petyr). Hence Littlefinger's advice to write the letter to Cat, blaming the Lannisters - who had a much better motive than she did (at least without close inspection - Cat nearly figured out that Lysa killed her husband; she gets some key pieces of information throughout AGoT but is not able to put everything together).

Littlefinger's goal in ensuring Ned became Hand likely was to rekindle his affair with Cat (like he possibly rekindled his affair with Lysa after he came to court). Jon had Lysa with him at court, too, making it not unlikely Ned would bring Catelyn, too.

Within that plan Ned would have to go eventually, just like Jon had to go. But that whole died when Cat came to court and showed no interest in making out with Littlefinger.

And then Sansa came - and the game for Littlefinger changed completely. If Sansa is a big part of his end game - and it is pretty clear that she is - then the way to Sansa's hand can lead just as well through Ned as it can lead over his dead body.

It turned out to be his dead body, but that wasn't a given from the start. If Ned had reacted differently - not telling Cersei that he knew about the incest, say - things could have gone very differently.

The dagger is completely different from that thing. Here Littlefinger certainly deepened the suspicion Ned and Cat of the Lannisters thanks to the letter, but telling them the truth would have meant that he (and Varys) would have accused King Robert himself of murder - something that could have led to a much more explosive situation than the whole Tyrion thing.

The Tyrion thing only becomes relevant because Cat meets him on the road and decides to abduct him. If that hadn't happened, things would have taken a completely different turn.

1 hour ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Perhaps Littlefinger’s offer to Ned was genuine, and he only made the final turn to Cersei when Ned rejected his plans. However, Littlefinger would probably have recognised that a coup against Cersei would lead to war with the West in any case, or at the very least stirred up the trouble he desired. That being said, Littlefinger must have known that the oh-so-honourable Ned wasn’t likely to go down that route, so he was probably banking on having to side with the Lannisters anyhow.

Oh, the plan wasn't a coup against Cersei. Littlefinger was urging Ned to go along with the idea of a King Joffrey for the time being, making peace with Cersei and the Lannister until they had dealt with Stannis. Then they could together deal with Cersei's children by revealing the incest, and make Renly king.

It would have been a pragmatic plan, but it would have been doable. Cersei herself was willing to work with Ned.

1 hour ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Slynt may have been approached by Cersei independently, but it’s heavily hinted in the text that Littlefinger was despatched by Ned to bribe Slynt, and instead he bribed them on behalf of Cersei. It’s possible that Littlefinger just knew which way the wind was blowing, and backed the winner, and Slynt did the same thing, but I suspect at least some cahooting between them. There’s no indication that he actually tried to convince Slynt to join Ned’s team – Littlefinger surely knew Eddard was toast if he continued down the path he’d chosen.

I'm referring to this stuff here:

Quote

“So this Lord Slynt, he was part of it [Ned's execution], was he? Tell me, whose fine notion was it to grant him Harrenhal and name him to the council?”
“Littlefinger made the arrangements. We needed Slynt’s gold cloaks. Eddard Stark was plotting with Renly and he’d written to Lord Stannis, offering him the throne. We might have lost all. Even so, it was a close thing. If Sansa hadn’t come to me and told me all her father’s plans . . .”
Tyrion was surprised. “Truly? His own daughter?” Sansa had always seemed such a sweet child, tender and courteous.
“The girl was wet with love. She would have done anything for Joffrey, until he cut off her father’s head and called it mercy. That put an end to that.”

Tell me, my lord, did you drive the spear into the man’s back yourself, or did you only give the command?”
“I gave the command, and I’d give it again. Lord Stark was a traitor.” The bald spot in the middle of Slynt’s head was beet-red, and his cloth-of-gold cape had slithered off his shoulders onto the floor. “The man tried to buy me.”
“Little dreaming that you had already been sold.”
Slynt slammed down his wine cup. “Are you drunk? If you think I will sit here and have my honor questioned . . .”

Cersei credits Littlefinger with giving Slynt what he wanted - Harrenhal and a seat on the council as a reward - but she doesn't credit him with actually bribing Slynt and saving her ass. Which is pretty odd.

Tyrion eventually figures out that Slynt was Littlefinger's man, but that doesn't mean Slynt wasn't - more or less - his own man during the succession crisis. He held the power to back either Cersei or Ned during that power vacuum. And that could help explain why Slynt and not Littlefinger was made Lord of Harrenhal. Slynt really gets the big price here while Petyr gets pretty much nothing. 

1 hour ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I think in one of their squabbles, Tyrion said about Littlefinger “…and delivered you Ned Stark, I know”. Or something to that effect. So Tyrion is under the impression that Cersei is under the impression that he was instrumental in defeating Ned. And Cersei doesn’t contradict him.

He clearly sided with the Lannisters. But nobody says Littlefinger was the crucial betrayer in the whole thing. Sansa was, according to Cersei.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Actually, we have to separate the dagger from the letter, and keep the context of each of those things in mind.

Lysa went to Petyr when she found out that Jon intended to make Robert Stannis' ward, sending him to Dragonstone. She asked him for help and he told her to poison Jon. Considering Lysa's anxious nature it is not unlikely she needed some sort of assurance that nobody would ever suspect her (and Petyr). Hence Littlefinger's advice to write the letter to Cat, blaming the Lannisters - who had a much better motive than she did (at least without close inspection - Cat nearly figured out that Lysa killed her husband; she gets some key pieces of information throughout AGoT but is not able to put everything together).

Littlefinger's goal in ensuring Ned became Hand likely was to rekindle his affair with Cat (like he possibly rekindled his affair with Lysa after he came to court). Jon had Lysa with him at court, too, making it not unlikely Ned would bring Catelyn, too.

Within that plan Ned would have to go eventually, just like Jon had to go. But that whole died when Cat came to court and showed no interest in making out with Littlefinger.

And then Sansa came - and the game for Littlefinger changed completely. If Sansa is a big part of his end game - and it is pretty clear that she is - then the way to Sansa's hand can lead just as well through Ned as it can lead over his dead body.

It turned out to be his dead body, but that wasn't a given from the start. If Ned had reacted differently - not telling Cersei that he knew about the incest, say - things could have gone very differently.

The dagger is completely different from that thing. Here Littlefinger certainly deepened the suspicion Ned and Cat of the Lannisters thanks to the letter, but telling them the truth would have meant that he (and Varys) would have accused King Robert himself of murder - something that could have led to a much more explosive situation than the whole Tyrion thing.

The Tyrion thing only becomes relevant because Cat meets him on the road and decides to abduct him. If that hadn't happened, things would have taken a completely different turn.

A lot of what you say there is reasonable, but given both those moves - the letter and the dagger - brought about serious antagonism between the Starks and the Lannisters, I think it shouldn't be dismissed that bringing about that conflict was a key goal for Littlefinger from the beginning. It was the most likely outcome of both tricks, and Littlefinger would have known that.

I don't think his motives can be summed up as primarily being to get with Cat/Sansa. He's clearly at the very least trying to get as much power as possible for himself. Whether he's doing so using a long-game, or merely acting opportunistically, is up for debate. 

12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, the plan wasn't a coup against Cersei. Littlefinger was urging Ned to go along with the idea of a King Joffrey for the time being, making peace with Cersei and the Lannister until they had dealt with Stannis. Then they could together deal with Cersei's children by revealing the incest, and make Renly king.

It would have been a pragmatic plan, but it would have been doable. Cersei herself was willing to work with Ned.

What I meant was that war between the Starks and Lannisters would have been inevitable if they wanted to deal with Cersei later on, which was the second phase of his very sound plan. 

Also, we should acknowledge the possibility that Littlefinger's full plan wasn't revealed to Ned. By which I mean, he floated this idea, while always planning to stir between Stark and Lannister at some future date. He would have been installed as Ned's right hand man - a step up. He could then use that position to sow discord in the future, or just remove Ned/Cersei/Renly/Joffery one by one, or as the mood took him. 

16 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Tyrion eventually figures out that Slynt was Littlefinger's man, but that doesn't mean Slynt wasn't - more or less - his own man during the succession crisis. He held the power to back either Cersei or Ned during that power vacuum. And that could help explain why Slynt and not Littlefinger was made Lord of Harrenhal. Slynt really gets the big price here while Petyr gets pretty much nothing

Granted. Of course, being "Littlefinger's man" can mean many different things. I doubt Slynt considered himself Littlefinger's man, but rather partner in crime or useful mate. Littlefinger was a fixer. Part of his strength is that he's helpful, and everyone thinks he's just helping them wheel and deal, while he's actually pulling all the strings. 

18 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

He clearly sided with the Lannisters. But nobody says Littlefinger was the crucial betrayer in the whole thing. Sansa was, according to Cersei.

Again, granted. However, I always thought Cersei's belief that Sansa's betrayal of Ned was central is quite odd. Sure, in a close run thing like the coup, such information might be crucial, but would have been useless without so many other factors, the goldcloaks being the most obvious of those. 

As I said, part of Littlefinger's strength is by downplaying his own role, which will probably mean he never gets full credit for everything. For instance, I wouldn't be surprised if the Queen of Thorns thought that she was the key mover and shaker in the plot to kill Joffery, and Littlefinger was just someone she convinced to help. We see a similar dynamic with Ned, who thinks he's a useful man who he keeps at arms length, and never notices the degree to which he's being played. 

[Ygrain]

2 hours ago, Damon_Tor said:

That's the one everyone seems to be talking about. But the second more directly addresses this point, and it an annotation found in the "Enhanced Edition" of A Storm of Swords:

That is the first time I see this referenced, and an internet search doesn't turn up the quote that you provide. Can you make a scan of the page?