Did Littlefinger influece Joffrey in executing Ned?

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Actually, we have to separate the dagger from the letter, and keep the context of each of those things in mind.

Lysa went to Petyr when she found out that Jon intended to make Robert Stannis' ward, sending him to Dragonstone. She asked him for help and he told her to poison Jon. Considering Lysa's anxious nature it is not unlikely she needed some sort of assurance that nobody would ever suspect her (and Petyr). Hence Littlefinger's advice to write the letter to Cat, blaming the Lannisters - who had a much better motive than she did (at least without close inspection - Cat nearly figured out that Lysa killed her husband; she gets some key pieces of information throughout AGoT but is not able to put everything together).

Littlefinger's goal in ensuring Ned became Hand likely was to rekindle his affair with Cat (like he possibly rekindled his affair with Lysa after he came to court). Jon had Lysa with him at court, too, making it not unlikely Ned would bring Catelyn, too.

Within that plan Ned would have to go eventually, just like Jon had to go. But that whole died when Cat came to court and showed no interest in making out with Littlefinger.

And then Sansa came - and the game for Littlefinger changed completely. If Sansa is a big part of his end game - and it is pretty clear that she is - then the way to Sansa's hand can lead just as well through Ned as it can lead over his dead body.

It turned out to be his dead body, but that wasn't a given from the start. If Ned had reacted differently - not telling Cersei that he knew about the incest, say - things could have gone very differently.

I would agree that Petyr would have been glad to exploit Eddard for a time if Eddard had agreed to his proposal to back Joffrey. But I think Petyr never believed for one minute that Eddard would accept his proposal. Petyr would have had Eddard killed sooner or later anyway. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I don't think his motives can be summed up as primarily being to get with Cat/Sansa. He's clearly at the very least trying to get as much power as possible for himself. Whether he's doing so using a long-game, or merely acting opportunistically, is up for debate. 

I don't think he wanted Catelyn; I think he wanted to get back at Catelyn. After Sansa arrived, he seems to have become infatuated with her. 

[Damon_Tor]

27 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

That is the first time I see this referenced, and an internet search doesn't turn up the quote that you provide. Can you make a scan of the page?

It's an e-book only publication, with mouse-over annotations.

https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/a-storm-of-swords/id1155737622?mt=11

 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

9 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I would agree that Petyr would have been glad to exploit Eddard for a time if Eddard had agreed to his proposal to back Joffrey. But I think Petyr never believed for one minute that Eddard would accept his proposal. Petyr would have had Eddard killed sooner or later anyway.

Exactly.

4 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I don't think he wanted Catelyn; I think he wanted to get back at Catelyn. After Sansa arrived, he seems to have become infatuated with her.

This seems more likely to me. I sincerely doubt that it was his primary motivation though. It seems more likely he incorporated Sansa into his already existing plans. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

54 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I don't think he wanted Catelyn; I think he wanted to get back at Catelyn. After Sansa arrived, he seems to have become infatuated with her. 

I really have to wonder how he felt when he found out Catelyn died at the Red Wedding.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Exactly.

This seems more likely to me. I sincerely doubt that it was his primary motivation though. It seems more likely he incorporated Sansa into his already existing plans. 

I agree, but I think Sansa might end up being the honeycomb he just can't let go of. 

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

A lot of what you say there is reasonable, but given both those moves - the letter and the dagger - brought about serious antagonism between the Starks and the Lannisters, I think it shouldn't be dismissed that bringing about that conflict was a key goal for Littlefinger from the beginning. It was the most likely outcome of both tricks, and Littlefinger would have known that.

Still, if we check the context then what we can safely deduce from Littlefinger's actions is that - after his original move with the letter - he actually took steps to dissuade Ned and Cat from acting rather than pushing them towards moving against the Lannisters.

The entire 'I'm your friend' routine he plays with Cat and Ned has basically one real purpose - to get Cat and Ned to trust him and to perceive him as an ally.

From what we can see in AGoT it seems that Littlefinger was much closer to Ned than he was to the Lannisters at that point. Jaime goes on record at Winterfell that he doesn't trust Littlefinger.

That could indicate that he was trying to groom Ned so that he could work with him during the reign of a King Joffrey.

We have to keep in mind that Littlefinger had nothing to do do with Tyrion's abduction or the hostilities in the Riverlands that broke out after that, nor had he any hand in Ned's comparative weakness as a result of his broken leg.

The idea that Littlefinger had any hand in informing Jaime about Tyrion's abduction is conspiracy theory stuff. Varys had the information of the abduction a day before, Ned got it later that day from Yoren, and Jaime on the next day (presumably through Cersei who may have be informed by Tywin via raven).

Littlefinger is an important player, but he is not perceived as such. And thus very few people would go out of their way to inform him rather than the really important people.

If things had gone slightly different - no Tyrion abduction, Ned not finding out about the incest prior to Robert's death - things could have gone very differently. Nobody had any intention of telling Ned about the incest - if they wanted to do that, Varys or Littlefinger could have done so much sooner. If Robert had died while Ned still believed Joffrey to be his son, Ned wouldn't have turned against King Joffrey.

And it is not that unlikely that this was the kind of setting Littlefinger (and Varys) were actually working towards, intending to use the Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm as a pawn in whatever game they intended to play later on.

Varys would have wanted to recruit Ned to his Targaryen restoration plan, and Littlefinger would have wanted to use Ned as a mount to ride to glory and power - and Sansa.

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I don't think his motives can be summed up as primarily being to get with Cat/Sansa. He's clearly at the very least trying to get as much power as possible for himself. Whether he's doing so using a long-game, or merely acting opportunistically, is up for debate. 

Power is also an important point, but the Tully women figure into this whole thing as important characters. Littlefinger knows Lysa loves him and he believes Cat loves him, too. The main reason he wants power is to be good enough for Catelyn. That is his core motivation following the lost duel.

Whether it is still his main motivation - or whether a lust for power has now completely replaced the other motive - is up for debate. But even if the Tully women are less important now they are not completely irrelevant, either.

And especially his fixation on Sansa actually shows that his more basic needs and desires - romantic/sexual attraction and paternal feelings - are constantly at odds with the whole power agenda.

George himself has gone on record that Littlefinger's feelings for Sansa are very complex. One part of him sees her as the daughter he and Cat never had, another sees her as a younger and more beautiful version of Cat, and a third part sees her only as a pawn in the game of thrones.

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What I meant was that war between the Starks and Lannisters would have been inevitable if they wanted to deal with Cersei later on, which was the second phase of his very sound plan. 

There would have been some sort of conflict, but not necessarily a major war. If Ned had seized power at court, making peace with the Lannisters while at the same time putting his people in key positions in King Joffrey's government, he would have been in a position of strength when he and Littlefinger finally revealed the truth about Cersei's children.

If this was properly prepared, with Renly, the Stormlords, the Tyrells, the Vale, the Riverlands, and the North standing in unison against the West then this whole thing would have been quickly over.

A similar scenario could have happened if there hadn't been the Tyrion abduction and Cat/Ned would have been the ones beginning open hostilities with the Lannisters when they were ready.

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Also, we should acknowledge the possibility that Littlefinger's full plan wasn't revealed to Ned. By which I mean, he floated this idea, while always planning to stir between Stark and Lannister at some future date. He would have been installed as Ned's right hand man - a step up. He could then use that position to sow discord in the future, or just remove Ned/Cersei/Renly/Joffery one by one, or as the mood took him. 

Sure, I don't really think Littlefinger and Ned could have worked together in unison for a long time. But if both of them had, for some reason, realized that they could make up a good team, then it could have worked. There is no reason to believe Littlefinger has some sort of suppressed hatred for Ned and desperately wants him dead.

Littlefinger may have resented Brandon, but Ned is not Brandon.

And his real issues aren't with Cat's betrothed/husband but with the rules of the society he lives in - and, of course, the fact that he wasn't highborn enough to marry a daughter of Lord Hoster Tully. After all, he believes Cat loved him. She didn't reject him because she loved another, she rejected him because of 'Family, Duty, Honor'.

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Again, granted. However, I always thought Cersei's belief that Sansa's betrayal of Ned was central is quite odd. Sure, in a close run thing like the coup, such information might be crucial, but would have been useless without so many other factors, the goldcloaks being the most obvious of those.

Yes, this is an odd thing, and one hopes that George is going to elaborate on that in the future. There is great potential here if we assume Sansa ends up investigating Littlefinger's role in her father's downfall - only then to be finally confronted with her own betrayal of her father. Littlefinger is likely going to twist that knife very hard, telling her that his betrayal of Ned was caused by her betrayal of him. He can claim he sold Ned to Cersei because he had no other choice, thanks to her spilling the beans to Cersei.

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As I said, part of Littlefinger's strength is by downplaying his own role, which will probably mean he never gets full credit for everything. For instance, I wouldn't be surprised if the Queen of Thorns thought that she was the key mover and shaker in the plot to kill Joffery, and Littlefinger was just someone she convinced to help. We see a similar dynamic with Ned, who thinks he's a useful man who he keeps at arms length, and never notices the degree to which he's being played. 

Littlefinger doesn't tell Sansa the whole truth about his involvement in Joffrey's murder. The whole hairnet part of the plot means that Olenna and Littlefinger had very concrete plans how the thing was going to go down, and that means they must have planned the whole thing very intricately. They tried to double-cross each other, of course, but we know when exactly Olenna decided to murder Joffrey - it is when she and Margaery question Sansa about Joff and get the truth from her lips.

At that point Sansa already has the hairnet, but had Sansa painted a completely different picture of Joff the poisoning most definitely would have been canceled. 

Littlefinger may have played Olenna to degree that he was the one setting up the scenario for the kingslaying insofar as he convinced Mace and Loras that Loras should join the Kingsguard - that's what made the thing so explosive. Joffrey is murdered because Olenna does not want Loras to kill him should he ever catch him mistreating Margaery.

3 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I would agree that Petyr would have been glad to exploit Eddard for a time if Eddard had agreed to his proposal to back Joffrey. But I think Petyr never believed for one minute that Eddard would accept his proposal. Petyr would have had Eddard killed sooner or later anyway. 

Littlefinger is surprisingly blunt and open during the conversation with Ned there. He basically tells the man in his way that there is no way he is ever going to support a King Stannis. And he seems genuinely distraught - although he turns it into a joke - that Ned rejects his plan.

In fact, there is actually a pretty good chance that Littlefinger was pretty pissed that his own manipulation came back to haunt him there, when Ned brought up the dagger story.

3 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I don't think he wanted Catelyn; I think he wanted to get back at Catelyn. After Sansa arrived, he seems to have become infatuated with her. 

He tries to hook up with Catelyn when she comes to KL. The advances are pretty subtle but they are there.

There is no indication that Littlefinger personally blames Catelyn for how things went down. That is not a guarantee that he doesn't blame her, of course (I think the chances that he had severe issues with her are actually considerably higher than the idea that he had ever any deep issues with either Brandon or Ned - they just married Cat, but Cat was the one who didn't pick Petyr despite the fact that she loved him (in Littlefinger's mind)) but we have no indication that he does.

The last words to Lysa strongly indicate that we are talking about genuine feelings here. But those feelings were, for the most part, replaced by his feelings for Sansa after he met her.

The man never got over the whole Cat thing. His quest for power is an attempt to be good enough for his great Tully girl. Now he is finally good enough for her - and along comes Sansa, a better version of Catelyn, one that looks like her (and is more beautiful) while at the same time also reminding the man of himself (in her naiveté). That is just far too much to let it pass.

2 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

I really have to wonder how he felt when he found out Catelyn died at the Red Wedding.

I hope we'll get something on that in a future book. Littlefinger and Sansa should talk about this thing at one point in the future, and Littlefinger sure as hell should meet Cat again, one last time. If there is a character who has really figured out how she and her family have been betrayed it is Catelyn, not Sansa.

Sansa knows pretty much nothing at this point. And she actually owes Littlefinger for saving her from the Lannisters.

3 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

This seems more likely to me. I sincerely doubt that it was his primary motivation though. It seems more likely he incorporated Sansa into his already existing plans. 

That is certainly true.

My guess is that the rekindled affair with Cat was plan A when the letter was sent to ensure that Ned became Hand. That way Littlefinger could end up take over the Riverlands.

Lysa and the Vale would have been plan B.

Note that Littlefinger immediately sends Sansa his little note when Tyrion offers him Harrenhal and the Riverlands in exchange for bringing the Vale into the fold and arranging the marriage between Robert and Myrcella.

He wanted to take Sansa with him when he left KL for the Vale in Joff's name in ACoK!

That could have allowed him to become the savior of all his Tully girls, actually. With Sansa at his side, and Lysa doing his bidding, he could have brought the Vale into the war on Robb's side, changing the course of the war.

Robb and Cat would have to be grateful both for the military support as well as the rescue of Sansa. He could very have been rewarded with Sansa's hand, becoming Robb's happy brother-in-law.

He could also have helped them to reach an understanding with Renly, etc.

There is a reason why Littlefinger is as pissed with Tyrion as he is after he learns that he has been fooled. And there is also a reason why he later has Mandon Moore try to kill Tyrion, and why he chooses Tyrion as the scapegoat for Joffrey's murder.

This whole thing is personal.

[Lost Melnibonean]

The George hinted to us through Jeor Mormont as to what would happen...

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"Lord Eddard has been imprisoned. He is charged with treason. It is said he plotted with Robert's brothers to deny the throne to Prince Joffrey."

"No," Jon said at once. "That couldn't be. My father would never betray the king!"

"Be that as it may," said Mormont. "It is not for me to say. Nor for you."

"But it's a lie," Jon insisted. How could they think his father was a traitor, had they all gone mad? Lord Eddard Stark would never dishonor himself . . . would he?

He fathered a bastard, a small voice whispered inside him. Where was the honor in that? And your mother, what of her? He will not even speak her name.

"My lord, what will happen to him? Will they kill him?"

"As to that, I cannot say, lad. I mean to send a letter. I knew some of the king's councillors in my youth. Old Pycelle, Lord Stannis, Ser Barristan . . . Whatever your father has done, or hasn't done, he is a great lord. He must be allowed to take the black and join us here. Gods knows, we need men of Lord Eddard's ability."

Jon knew that other men accused of treason had been allowed to redeem their honor on the Wall in days past. Why not Lord Eddard? His father here. That was a strange thought, and strangely uncomfortable. It would be a monstrous injustice to strip him of Winterfell and force him to take the black, and yet if it meant his life . . .

And would Joffrey allow it? He remembered the prince at Winterfell, the way he'd mocked Robb and Ser Rodrik in the yard. Jon himself he had scarcely even noticed; bastards were beneath even his contempt. "My lord, will the king listen to you?"

The Old Bear shrugged. "A boy king . . . I imagine he'll listen to his mother. A pity the dwarf isn't with them. He's the lad's uncle, and he saw our need when he visited us."

Jon VII, Game 52

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

If things had gone slightly different - no Tyrion abduction, Ned not finding out about the incest prior to Robert's death - things could have gone very differently. Nobody had any intention of telling Ned about the incest - if they wanted to do that, Varys or Littlefinger could have done so much sooner.

Littlefinger was instrumental in Ned discovering the incest - he took him to the brothel to see one of Robert's bastards. Simply telling Ned wasn't his style, helping to nudge him towards discovering it himself was more like him.

 

7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Whether it is still his main motivation - or whether a lust for power has now completely replaced the other motive - is up for debate. But even if the Tully women are less important now they are not completely irrelevant, either.

Very true. I think the two things - power and the Tully women - are completely mixed up in his head.

10 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no reason to believe Littlefinger has some sort of suppressed hatred for Ned and desperately wants him dead.

Well there are reasons to be fair - his history with Brandon and Catelyn. This doesn't mean he definitely hates Ned and wants him dead, but the motive is there. Of course, Ned's not Brandon, but Ned got Catelyn. His hatred doesn't have to be rational, it just has to exist.

 

13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Yes, this is an odd thing, and one hopes that George is going to elaborate on that in the future. There is great potential here if we assume Sansa ends up investigating Littlefinger's role in her father's downfall - only then to be finally confronted with her own betrayal of her father. Littlefinger is likely going to twist that knife very hard, telling her that his betrayal of Ned was caused by her betrayal of him. He can claim he sold Ned to Cersei because he had no other choice, thanks to her spilling the beans to Cersei.

I think Littlefinger may also be able to hold it over her head, or sow division, with any remaining Starks in the future.

 

[ravenous reader]

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I agree, but I think Sansa might end up being the honeycomb he just can't let go of. 

The honeycomb...or carrot...

I love this post by @Mithras in the old thread you once recommended to us:

By the way, are you familiar with this quote, which might bolster your pomegranate theory of Littlefinger as Sweetrobin's father, hinting that Littlefinger's designs surrounding his own 'seed' may be his own downfall (in mythology, the person who partakes of the pomegranate seed is doomed, entering into a devil's bargain)?

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Dolorous Edd had heard the entire exchange. As Bowen Marsh trotted off, he nodded toward his back and said, "Pomegranates. All those seeds. A man could choke to death. I'd sooner have a turnip. Never knew a turnip to do a man any harm."

ADWD Jon V

 

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Littlefinger was instrumental in Ned discovering the incest - he took him to the brothel to see one of Robert's bastards. Simply telling Ned wasn't his style, helping to nudge him towards discovering it himself was more like him.

Could be. But we don't really know what the point of the brothel visits were aside from keeping Ned occupied. I mean, he also led him around the nose with the Hugh thing (and the other servants of Jon Arryn).

Did he want to help Ned to figure it out by himself? Or did he just want to appear to be useful?

2 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Well there are reasons to be fair - his history with Brandon and Catelyn. This doesn't mean he definitely hates Ned and wants him dead, but the motive is there. Of course, Ned's not Brandon, but Ned got Catelyn. His hatred doesn't have to be rational, it just has to exist.

I'd go along with that idea if this was a simple story. But it is actually a very complex situation. This is a world of arranged marriages where love and the wishes of the spouses are pretty much irrelevant. Littlefinger thinks he had Catelyn's love - that is not the problem. Brandon and Ned didn't win her hand because she loved them, they got her because Cat was too much of dutiful Tully to defy her lord father.

The duel was Littlefinger's attempt to allow Catelyn to marry him, honor intact. A man can win a woman's hand in this world, no matter contracts, etc., if he wins a duel over her hand. This is also the reason why Littlefinger would not yield. And it is the reason why never gave up afterwards, why he wants to be better than others from this point on.

The person Littlefinger apparently resented after the duel was Edmure Tully of all people, since the boy chose to serve Brandon as a squire. He saw that as a betrayal.

And perhaps he also felt betrayed by Catelyn. If that's the case we don't know it yet, though.

2 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I think Littlefinger may also be able to hold it over her head, or sow division, with any remaining Starks in the future.

I think that would make more sense if it remained a personal story. Sansa doesn't seem to be aware what she did back then. The idea that anybody would blame an 11-year-old girl for doing what she did is pretty much insane, even if there was proof of this (which there isn't). But Littlefinger telling Sansa that she is the one directly responsible for the butchering of all the Stark guardsmen, the Poole family, Septa Mordane, etc. - and he might not even lie there, if he spins it that way, considering that it seems the Lannister guardsmen were the ones taking the Tower of the Hand, not the City Watch - should have considerable impact on her.

[James Fenimore Cooper XXII]

Did Littlefinger influece Joffrey in executing Ned?

I give this a better than fifty-fifty chance.  LF hated the Starks.

[Lost Melnibonean]

3 hours ago, ravenous reader said:

The honeycomb...or carrot...

I love this post by @Mithras in the old thread you once recommended to us:

By the way, are you familiar with this quote, which might bolster your pomegranate theory of Littlefinger as Sweetrobin's father, hinting that Littlefinger's designs surrounding his own 'seed' may be his own downfall (in mythology, the person who partakes of the pomegranate seed is doomed, entering into a devil's bargain)?

 

Nice. 

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, Lollygag said:

Maybe I'm tired but I feel like you're speaking another language. 

I don't know what you're doing with comparing Joff and Cersei here. Joff is dead at the time of the quotes in AFFC. And Cersei has no intention of hurting Sansa until LF frames Sansa for Joff's murder so Cersei hurting Sansa can't be a reason for LF's favoring Joff. 

You got me. You're the one who brought it up:

On ‎1‎/‎31‎/‎2018 at 2:23 AM, Lollygag said:

This passage below shows that LF wants someone to make a mess of things, but not so quickly as Cersei is moving. Joff wouldn't be a good option and he's a threat to Sansa who could no longer be controlled and just a complete disaster otherwise.

Cersei does not need LF to frame Sansa for the murder. We can see from her POVs that she is firmly convinced that Sansa was complicit, which is a natural assumption to make considering she disappeared that very night. LF is certainly aware of this, and virtually everybody knows that the penalty for regicide is death. So all I'm saying as that at the time of your quotes, Cersei is a far greater threat to Sansa than Joffrey ever was. And at the time of the murder, LF had no idea that Cersei would be calling the shots anyway, unless you contend that he was also planning to murder Tywin as well.

17 hours ago, Lollygag said:

And LF was complicit and arguably was the mastermind of Joff's murder so I don't get you saying he had no reason to kill him when he actually was a part of exactly that. Do you have some other theory here or something?

Yes, Joffrey's death was an accident. The poison was in Tyrion's slice of pie, not Joffrey's wine, therefore the real target was Tyrion. If you want to pursue this, I'd suggest you PM me, as I routinely get accused of hijacking threads even though I'm just answering questions as I get them.

17 hours ago, Lollygag said:

And how much influence can he have over Joff from the Vale? Ravens aren't that awesome. And never mind an assertion that Joff can be controlled by LF or anyone. That's a gross misread of plot and character. Convincing a homicidal nut like Joff to murder someone is about as challenging as convincing a child to eat candy and LF's convincing Joff to execute Ned isn't even canon, it's only theory. GRRM only said LF only had "a certain influence" IIRC. And where do you get this idea that LF cares about Tommen? LF is talking about the 3 Queens, not Tommen who at present rules only kittens.

LF was "in the Vale" in the months prior to the Purple Wedding, yet he still managed to get Joff to agree to the dwarf joust. Controlling Joff is probably overstating it. I would put it more as influencing, cajoling, manipulating; in other words, getting him to do what you want of his own accord.

I don't agree with the interpretation of Joffrey as a homicidal nut, but I admit I am in the minority. Sure, he has killed people, but so has Ned, so has Dany... Joff exercises the rough justice of the times when a king's word is law, and his youth makes him a little more chaotic than most, but he has never hurt or killed people at random and strictly for his own enjoyment -- there has always been a political or military prompt, with Sansa, with the Antler Men, the rioters at the gate, the singer...

If the contention is that LF purposely killed Joffrey, then obviously he prefers Tommen as king. If that is the case, whywould LF think he could influence, cajole, manipulate the new king any better than the old? He has never even spoken to Tommen as far as we can tell, and for the next five years at least, Tommen will be powerless to decide anything without Tywin's approval. Why remove the chaotic king who you know you can manipulate and bring in a new king that you cannot?

17 hours ago, Lollygag said:

Yeah, the chaos quote. You've tossed out everything except that phrase and superglued your own meaning on it. It's actually a great example of how one can get into trouble in this series when you pull a sentence (or in this case part of a sentence) out of context. Context determines interpretation and GRRM often leaves really nice clues as to how to interpret things before and after a statement. Again, what you're talking about sounds like that nonsense character Show LF grafted onto Book LF's arc.

You made contradictory statements here: "By definition, chaos is uncontrollable, so your contention that Littlefinger only wants chaos "on his own timetable with certain results intended" is simply not possible" and "With Joffrey, LF can influence events for his own purposes, but with Tommen he has no influence at all. Tommen's actions will be directed by Tywin, who most certainly will not foment chaos for Littlefinger's benefit." Chaos is uncontrollable and can't be used with certain results intended but LF's use of Joff and Tommen can influence events to his benefit? 

snip

When you can influence the chaotic king, and LF has clearly demonstrated that he can, you have the propensity to cause far more trouble for your enemies than if you have no influence over the docile, more rational king. So regardless of whether you think LF is lying or telling the truth when, in the very same sentence, he alternately claims to want "four or five quiet years" and chaos in which to thrive, the undeniable fact is that he would have greater influence over events and the decisions being made in King's Landing, chaotic as they may be, with Joffrey as king rather than Tommen. Good grief, if he actually wanted "quiet years", and he could have murdered anyone at the Purple Wedding just to confuse his enemies, then the last thing he would want to do is target the most watched person in the room and throw the realm into a succession crisis by elevating an 11yo boy to the throne, delaying the consummation of the royal marriage by half a decade or more and risking the very alliance that offers the only chance of producing this extended period of calm. It's actually kind of funny: in one stroke, LF has managed to jeopardize both the peace and the chaos he says he desires.

[Lollygag]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

You got me. You're the one who brought it up:

Cersei does not need LF to frame Sansa for the murder. We can see from her POVs that she is firmly convinced that Sansa was complicit, which is a natural assumption to make considering she disappeared that very night. LF is certainly aware of this, and virtually everybody knows that the penalty for regicide is death. So all I'm saying as that at the time of your quotes, Cersei is a far greater threat to Sansa than Joffrey ever was. And at the time of the murder, LF had no idea that Cersei would be calling the shots anyway, unless you contend that he was also planning to murder Tywin as well.

Yes, Joffrey's death was an accident. The poison was in Tyrion's slice of pie, not Joffrey's wine, therefore the real target was Tyrion. If you want to pursue this, I'd suggest you PM me, as I routinely get accused of hijacking threads even though I'm just answering questions as I get them.

LF was "in the Vale" in the months prior to the Purple Wedding, yet he still managed to get Joff to agree to the dwarf joust. Controlling Joff is probably overstating it. I would put it more as influencing, cajoling, manipulating; in other words, getting him to do what you want of his own accord.

I don't agree with the interpretation of Joffrey as a homicidal nut, but I admit I am in the minority. Sure, he has killed people, but so has Ned, so has Dany... Joff exercises the rough justice of the times when a king's word is law, and his youth makes him a little more chaotic than most, but he has never hurt or killed people at random and strictly for his own enjoyment -- there has always been a political or military prompt, with Sansa, with the Antler Men, the rioters at the gate, the singer...

If the contention is that LF purposely killed Joffrey, then obviously he prefers Tommen as king. If that is the case, whywould LF think he could influence, cajole, manipulate the new king any better than the old? He has never even spoken to Tommen as far as we can tell, and for the next five years at least, Tommen will be powerless to decide anything without Tywin's approval. Why remove the chaotic king who you know you can manipulate and bring in a new king that you cannot?

When you can influence the chaotic king, and LF has clearly demonstrated that he can, you have the propensity to cause far more trouble for your enemies than if you have no influence over the docile, more rational king. So regardless of whether you think LF is lying or telling the truth when, in the very same sentence, he alternately claims to want "four or five quiet years" and chaos in which to thrive, the undeniable fact is that he would have greater influence over events and the decisions being made in King's Landing, chaotic as they may be, with Joffrey as king rather than Tommen. Good grief, if he actually wanted "quiet years", and he could have murdered anyone at the Purple Wedding just to confuse his enemies, then the last thing he would want to do is target the most watched person in the room and throw the realm into a succession crisis by elevating an 11yo boy to the throne, delaying the consummation of the royal marriage by half a decade or more and risking the very alliance that offers the only chance of producing this extended period of calm. It's actually kind of funny: in one stroke, LF has managed to jeopardize both the peace and the chaos he says he desires.

I'll only reply if you edit the above to show the content of my full post as some of these replies don't work without my words being deleted or edited to look like I said something I really didn't. These piecemeal quote/response, quote/response, quote/response ... taken to an absurd extent too often degrade the quality of the discussion at best and are used by some to be tricksy or even dishonest at worst. Not doing them anymore as it's too much work to really keep straight with so much hacking. 

[Lord Wraith]

I am going to go with no. Joffrey is simply a chaotic element that shows that no matter how good the players are there are simply some elements that can't be predicted. As far as Martin's quote on the issue I think he was referring to the jousting dwarves bit from the Wedding.

For anyone interested in theories on Baelish and his motivations I have complied a list of theories on another site.

http://thelasthearth.com/thread/1601/petyr-baelish-motive-codex

Once I finalized my own thoughts on the issue I was going to repost it here with my conclusions but it is a vast issue and its not ready but its still a good resource on theories about Baelish. 

[Lady Anna]

14 hours ago, ravenous reader said:

The honeycomb...or carrot...

I love this post by @Mithras in the old thread you once recommended to us:

By the way, are you familiar with this quote, which might bolster your pomegranate theory of Littlefinger as Sweetrobin's father, hinting that Littlefinger's designs surrounding his own 'seed' may be his own downfall (in mythology, the person who partakes of the pomegranate seed is doomed, entering into a devil's bargain)?

 

Nice catch on the pomegranates. In Greek mythology Persephone was also tricked into eating the fruit by Hades (after being abducted by him, causing winter to spread) which meant she had to stay a third of the year (winter) in the Underworld, and the rest above it. I think it's interesting that Persephone was also the personification of spring and new crops, post-winter. Anyway, Sansa did not eat the pomegranate, but the similarity of her story to Persephone is interesting. Littlefinger did eat it though so yeah, things are probably not going to go well for him.

[Lady Anna]

9 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I don't agree with the interpretation of Joffrey as a homicidal nut, but I admit I am in the minority. Sure, he has killed people, but so has Ned, so has Dany... Joff exercises the rough justice of the times when a king's word is law, and his youth makes him a little more chaotic than most, but he has never hurt or killed people at random and strictly for his own enjoyment -- there has always been a political or military prompt, with Sansa, with the Antler Men, the rioters at the gate, the singer...

There's a clear difference between Ned & Dany and Joffrey.... And he's never hurts people for his own entertainment??!! Didn't he just randomly killed people over the walls of the Red Keep? And besides, he hunted rabbits (I think it was rabbits), tortured a cat, made others beat Sansa.....he's not just a ''chaotic'' kid.

[Ser Duncan of Flea Bottom]

5 hours ago, Lady Anna said:

There's a clear difference between Ned & Dany and Joffrey.... And he's never hurts people for his own entertainment??!! Didn't he just randomly killed people over the walls of the Red Keep? And besides, he hunted rabbits (I think it was rabbits), tortured a cat, made others beat Sansa.....he's not just a ''chaotic'' kid.

He is a cruel person, but he was still under his mother's regency at the the time, he was underaged and Cersei still had a great influence over him, she had managed to convince him to spare Ned. Varys wanted the same thing, I think he hoped to have Ned's help when the time came to restore the Dragon back to the throne (Red or Black, a dragon's still a dragon). If not Ned, as he was going to the Night's Watch, House Stark would be more tractable to deal with if they allowed Ned to live. When Ned was killed, there was no coming back, Tyrion had said so to his father's bannermen. Ned could even be traded for Jaime, but with him gone, the hopes for peace were shattered.

 

The one profting with chaos is Littlefinger, but as others pointed out earlier, he needs chaos according to his own agenda, having Ned killed would benefit him, not because he wanted Catelyn, at that point I am quite sure he didn't want her anymore, she was after Sansa, it is pretty clear, with Ned gone, who would stop him from marrying Sansa? Also, Joffrey later would marry Margaery, Sansa would be free, nobody would care if Sansa married some minor lord of the Fingers, or at least that was what Littlefinger thought. I think Sansa is his weakness, he seems obsessed with her. But Tywin knew she was still of value, she had a claim on the North, that's why he had Tyrion marry her.

 

Also, someone suggested LF was the one telling Joffrey to use his Kingsguard to beat Sansa, that was to shatter her dreams about true knights, LF didn't want Sansa to keep dreaming of songs and tales. Joffrey said his mother told him it was not fit for a king to strike a lady, I am sure LF then provided him with a solution for that, a solution that would be good for him as well.

[Lady Anna]

 

3 hours ago, Shadow of Asshai said:

He is a cruel person, but he was still under his mother's regency at the the time, he was underaged and Cersei still had a great influence over him, she had managed to convince him to spare Ned. Varys wanted the same thing, I think he hoped to have Ned's help when the time came to restore the Dragon back to the throne (Red or Black, a dragon's still a dragon). If not Ned, as he was going to the Night's Watch, House Stark would be more tractable to deal with if they allowed Ned to live. When Ned was killed, there was no coming back, Tyrion had said so to his father's bannermen. Ned could even be traded for Jaime, but with him gone, the hopes for peace were shattered.

 

The one profting with chaos is Littlefinger, but as others pointed out earlier, he needs chaos according to his own agenda, having Ned killed would benefit him, not because he wanted Catelyn, at that point I am quite sure he didn't want her anymore, she was after Sansa, it is pretty clear, with Ned gone, who would stop him from marrying Sansa? Also, Joffrey later would marry Margaery, Sansa would be free, nobody would care if Sansa married some minor lord of the Fingers, or at least that was what Littlefinger thought. I think Sansa is his weakness, he seems obsessed with her. But Tywin knew she was still of value, she had a claim on the North, that's why he had Tyrion marry her.

 

Also, someone suggested LF was the one telling Joffrey to use his Kingsguard to beat Sansa, that was to shatter her dreams about true knights, LF didn't want Sansa to keep dreaming of songs and tales. Joffrey said his mother told him it was not fit for a king to strike a lady, I am sure LF then provided him with a solution for that, a solution that would be good for him as well.

My post had nothing to do with the fact that Littlefinger may or may not have influenced him to such an extent, it was about the inherent nature and personality of Joffrey, and the absolute ludicrousness of comparing him to Ned and Daenerys.