Mexal Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Zorral said: So is it the little hands responsible for these stomach drops in the markets? Wasn't it just a week ago he was crowing about well he is handling the economy, so much better than anyone before him? What's he got to say about all this -- beyond it's Obama's, Hillary's Somebody's fault not MINE! Probably is to some extent with the inflation worries but reality is this is a much needed correction. Can't go up indefinitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAROVORKIN Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just now, Mexal said: Probably is to some extent with the inflation worries but reality is this is a much needed correction. Can't go up indefinitely. If it were still going up with no correction , that would be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAROVORKIN Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, Zorral said: So is it the little hands responsible for these stomach drops in the markets? Wasn't it just a week ago he was crowing about well he is handling the economy, so much better than anyone before him? What's he got to say about all this -- beyond it's Obama's, Hillary's Somebody's fault not MINE! He's a businessman , he knows all about market corrections. So what can he really say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, GAROVORKIN said: If it were still going up with no correction , that would be a problem. That was the point I was making 6 minutes ago, GAROVORKIN said: He's a businessman , he knows all about market corrections. So what can he really say? He has no idea at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spockydog Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, GAROVORKIN said: He's a failed businessman , he knows all about market corrections filing for bankruptcy. So what can he really say? Fixed that for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 32 minutes ago, dmc515 said: It's a very strange world we live in when the president sitting at 40% approval is "bad" news for the opposition. I'm more concerned about the generic ballot getting down to about 5 points in the 538 aggregate (RCP still has it at about 6.5, but they use considerably fewer firms). Why is this happening? Could be Trump staying relatively quiet and not dropping a twitter turd that pisses off 2/3s of the electorate, could be natural regression/tightening with GOP leaners coming home, could be the "shutdown" led to public malaise towards both parties that disproportionately hurt Dems, could even be random noise that will even itself out next month. Hell, in the case of a couple polls 538 is using, could even be a post SOTU bump. It's probably a little bit of each, and I think there's some interaction there - i.e. GOP leaners are coming home because Trump has kept his mouth shut. It's a couple weeks old, but Amy Walter at CPR has good analysis on this here. While this is certainly something to keep an eye on, there's still plenty of reasons to remain optimistic: As the election season heats up, Trump saying and tweeting offensive things to dominate news cycles is as good a bet as one could make; the president's party usually loses support as the election approaches; there is still a very large enthusiasm gap favoring the Dems, and enthusiasm matters a great deal in midterms (for turnout); GOP House retirements are already at record levels and we still have a few more months. Plus, there's this was just reported today: It's not exactly bad for the opposition in my mind; it's bad for my personal take on the US. 2 out of every 5 people in the US appear to actively approve of Trump. My suspicion is that they're still happy about him passing taxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 In some good news, Stabenow leadsboth her Republican challengers in Michigan's Senate race by 21 points, and the likely Democratic nominee for governor leads the Republican favorite by 7 points. Quote Stabenow leads GOP foes In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Debbie Stabenow, a Lansing Democrat, holds substantial leads against two top Republican challengers, according to the poll. With the Nov. 6 general election still more than nine months away, the third-term senator leads Republican Grosse Pointe businessman Sandy Pensler 51 percent to 30 percent in a hypothetical match-up, with 18 percent of voters saying they are undecided. Pensler has invested $5 million of his own money so far in the primary campaign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokisnow Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I'm not saying people are panicking after a one day 1200 market loss one day after a one day 666 market loss, but I can't even log into vanguard to check my IRA (which I do every week on sunday or monday, to record the number in my personal spreadsheet). take that back, maybe it does mean people are panicking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAROVORKIN Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, Spockydog said: Fixed that for you. Hm. I don't recall requesting my comment required renovation. No matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokisnow Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said: IDemocrat gubernatorial candidate Gretchen Whitmer leads Republican Bill Schuette the midwesterner in me wants to know, Is that pronouced Bill Shit or Bill Sheeeeee-it? I think it's like Boehner, obviously pronounced Boner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Mexal said: He has no idea at all. Yes, the guy has no idea at all. No president brags about the stock market hitting records Because He Was Elected!!! Markets don't always reflect what's going on in the economy. That's sort of counter-intuitive, but they react to news too. If a war broke out you'd see a drop, even with record-low unemployment and record setting profits. If North Korea bombs Japan, you'll see a big drop. The Dow ended up at 24,345, down 4.65%. All of 2018's gains are gone. My guess is they will drop below the 100 day moving average, drop below 24,000, in the next few days, and maybe settle some place around 23,000, slightly more than 10% down. A correction. A healthy correction. It may drop to 22,000, a 17% correction, which is an average correction. That only brings the market back to August of last year! Now that I've typed that, I wonder if we might in fact have a mini-bear and drop more than 20%, simply because the market went up 25% last year alone, which may have been an over-reaction to Trump's proposed tax changes. An over-reaction to an over-reaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAROVORKIN Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 19 minutes ago, Mexal said: That was the point I was making He has no idea at all. He was smart enough to get himself elected President of the United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, GAROVORKIN said: He was smart enough to get himself elected President of the United States. As we have now determined, this appears to not be a particularly high gauge of intelligence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paladin of Ice Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Trump: response of Democrats to his SOTU speech was unAmerican... "Can we call that treason? Why not?" The sheer fucking gall of this shitstain on the ass of history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, Kalbear said: It's not exactly bad for the opposition in my mind; it's bad for my personal take on the US. 2 out of every 5 people in the US appear to actively approve of Trump. My suspicion is that they're still happy about him passing taxes. Fair enough. I'm not so sure about the taxes thing. His - and the GOP Congress' - numbers looked significantly worse when the bill was passed, which is when it was most salient. I'm not much for the theory that the bill's popularity will increase once voters "realize" they're getting a tax cut, but there is the idea that the tax bill's popularity is strongly linked to Trump's popularity. Even if that is the case though, I think Trump's popularity is the causal factor, i.e. the tax bill's popularity is dependent on Trump's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry of the Lawn Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, lokisnow said: the midwesterner in me wants to know, Is that pronouced Bill Shit or Bill Sheeeeee-it? I think it's like Boehner, obviously pronounced Boner. It's pronounced "Schwett-ee" rhymes with sweaty. Like Schuette balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, GAROVORKIN said: He was smart enough to get himself elected President of the United States. Meh. Terrible argument. What does that have to do with his understanding of market forces? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAROVORKIN Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just now, Kalbear said: As we have now determined, this appears to not be a particularly high gauge of intelligence. If you had access to his level of financial and political resources , do you think you could have could you have gotten yourself elected to that job? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just now, GAROVORKIN said: If you had access to his level of financial and political resources , do you think you could have could you have gotten yourself elected to that job? This presupposes any person with a normal-sized ego would ever want to run for president. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAROVORKIN Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Mexal said: Meh. Terrible argument. What does that have to do with his understanding of market forces? Is it ? as a I just asked Kabear , if you had his financial resources and connections do you think you get yourself elected to that Job? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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