Shadow of Asshai

Aegon is Faegon

105 posts in this topic

3 hours ago, Paxter Redwyne said:

I think he might insert his own ideology to the books. I know some authors who lately have begun to do it, like Rick Riordan for example. And no, Dany suffers almost none repercussions. She is alive and well and according to Winds of Winter sample chapters she is already going to win this war. And I don't get what problem do you have with feminism. You understand that you don't need to be feminist to support gender equality? Most people do not indentify as feminists anyways:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/16/feminism-poll_n_3094917.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/life/only-7-per-cent-of-britons-consider-themselves-feminists/

 

Anyway I really think it is funny how you accuse me of invading this forum, since I am on it longer than you and I still have no idea why you brought up reddit to this discussion.

Anyways, if you want to accuse me of something do it at least do it on private. This is not the place for it.

I think you are being influenced by danny fanatics that think danny shits gold and trumples over all wrongs in the world.

In the actual story in the books danny basically lost. She had to marry someone she didn t like, open the figting pits and see slavery just outside meereen. The only thing that should have happened to her and didn t is the unsillied and supporters she shamed into helping the sick havent gotten sick yet.

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11 hours ago, Crona said:

I am pretty sure Aegon is not a targ but I have doubts in him being a Blackfyre too. The clothed dragon, if it was meant to be Aegon, then a clothed dragon is actually not a dragon at all, and Blackfyres are dragons. The rusted dragon is a black dragon that turns into a red dragon, but it’s still a dragon. I don’t know, I get a feeling that Aegon being a Blackfyre is just a red herring.

My personal theory is that varys is a blackfyre and was castrated because of that.

So when young castrated varys and young ilirio met each other they noticed they looked like each other (valyrian  features). So varys and ilirio decided to change their parents (ilirio becomes the son of varys parents) and decide to lie to the golden company and convince them ilirio is a blackfyre. So aegon can be illirio's son and don t be a blacfyre

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52 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

That has less to do with "ideologies" and "agendas" than with the simple fact that main characters are, well, main characters. Tyrion, Jon, Dany, Bran, Arya, Sansa will all make it into the final book. Furthermore, Dany must reach Westeros and make some sort of impact there, and not because GRRM is "male feminist" (ye gods!), but because her 30+ chapters (and counting) would be perfectly pointless otherwise.

And as for her "almost none repercussions", then why does the Slaver's Bay ADWD plot read like "the sequence of things that bite Dany on the ass one after another"?

You my be right in the end, after all it's just what I think. But personally I never felt that Dany in ADWD was ever in any real danger. 

22 minutes ago, divica said:

I think you are being influenced by danny fanatics that think danny shits gold and trumples over all wrongs in the world.

In the actual story in the books danny basically lost. She had to marry someone she didn t like, open the figting pits and see slavery just outside meereen. The only thing that should have happened to her and didn t is the unsillied and supporters she shamed into helping the sick havent gotten sick yet.

I would be glad if my assumptions will be proven to be false. I really don't like Dany. Maybe I just became paranoid from waiting for Winds of Winter.

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1 hour ago, divica said:

My personal theory is that varys is a blackfyre and was castrated because of that.

So when young castrated varys and young ilirio met each other they noticed they looked like each other (valyrian  features). So varys and ilirio decided to change their parents (ilirio becomes the son of varys parents) and decide to lie to the golden company and convince them ilirio is a blackfyre. So aegon can be illirio's son and don t be a blacfyre

That can work too, I don’t see how Varys can’t lie about Aegon being a Blackfyre too. There are clues that Aegon is not who he is, but him being a Blackfyre also doesn’t to me fit perfectly. Also, targs are not the only ones that have their own coloring in the book, many families are not related to targs still have their coloring. 

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I don't think Daenerys is GRRM's favourite, in the past most pointed out his favourite was Tyrion and that Sam was based on him.

People are mixing Show Daenerys with Book Daenerys. Show Daenerys is D&D's favourite, that's clear. But the same cannot be said of Book Daenerys and GRRM.

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7 minutes ago, Shadow of Asshai said:

I don't think Daenerys is GRRM's favourite, in the past most pointed out his favourite was Tyrion and that Sam was based on him.

People are mixing Show Daenerys with Book Daenerys. Show Daenerys is D&D's favourite, that's clear. But the same cannot be said of Book Daenerys and GRRM.

At 2:18 in linked video (when asked who his second favorite is after Tyrion) 

https://youtu.be/EHFOepy7rJw?t=2m18s

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2 minutes ago, TheSlayerofLies said:

At 2:18 in linked video (when asked who his second favorite is after Tyrion) 

https://youtu.be/EHFOepy7rJw?t=2m18s

He said Arya or Dany, but he said he likes all of them in general. Even though he has his favourites, it didn't mean they will be alive in the end of the story. I am working on a fantasy saga, a story I want to write and I have my favourite characters, but I don't know who will be alive by the end of the story, because like GRRM, I like how every action has a consequence.

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15 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Why would a Pentoshi magister seek to replace Robert with Viserys in the early days of Robert’s reign? 

They weren't planning to replace Robert in early days of his reign. They needed time to prepare for their invasion, and also for Viserys to grow up, and lead their army to Westeros. Not that they needed specifically Viserys, to be their commander, it's just that they needed a Targaryen, any Targaryen, for them to have a formal right/execuse to claim Iron Throne.

Even by the time when Robert died, they were still unready to launch their invasion.

They were slowly preparing for their invasion, from the time even before Robert's Rebellion. I think Blackfyres planned to invade Westeros, in early 280s. That's why Varys was installed into Targaryen court, and was badmouthing Rhaegar, and whispering to Aerys about Rhaegar's treason. They planned to begin with a civil war between Targaryens, and then to crush the winner with an attack of Golden Company.

When Viserys and Dany were evacuated to Braavos, Varys and Illyrio arranged that marriage agreement to be signed between Willem Darry and Martells, because they planned that several years later, when Viserys will marry with Arianne, Martells will support Targaryens with their army. This is exactly what they want to do now - same thing as they planned to do before - arranged marriage, and then for united army of Martells and Golden Company to march towards King's Landing.

And about Illyrio - he and Varys (maybe) are brothers-in-law, thus even though Illyrio himself isn't a Blackfyre, nevertheless he is still strongly connected with them and their goals.

15 hours ago, Euron Lannister said:

you give a good point against your opinion; Mummer's dragon means a Illyrio's and Varys' dragon, they are mummers, but not the dragon, otherwise he would habe been a mummer dragon or a dragon mummer.

and even then it could refer to his cotume chest and the possible lie about him being a blackfyre to get the golden company.

 

not saying he is in fact a targaryen, im totally uncertain, but your arguement doesn't really work

It does work.

They say to people that he is son of Rhaegar Targaryen, and that is the lie. He may be a dragon, but he is not a Targaryen dragon, like Rhaegar was, like Dany and Rhaego are. If he is a Blackfyre, then he is still a dragon, but he is not Dany's nephew. And Varys with Illyrio doesn't introduce fAegon to Westerosian general public, as just a dragonblood, they pose him specifically as Rhaegar's son, Aegon, the one that is actually dead, and has been dead for the last 17 years.

14 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

4. Varys warns Aerys not to open the gates to Tywin despite Pycelle's advice. Trying to protect the Targaryens.

Trying to protect his investments, not lives of Targaryens.

He already has spent a few years in Targaryen court, he already installed many of his spies all over 7K (people that worked for Blackfyres), and he was planning to seize Iron Throne, by ruining Targaryens from within. Thus their death from hands of Lannisters, or Robert Baratheon, and then establishment of Robert as new King of 7K, was against Varys' plans. He wanted to put his own King on Iron Throne, not Robert.

It's the same kind of thing, when the wolf saves the rabbit from the fox, only to be able to eat it later by himself. Though the wolf saved the rabbit from the fox, doesn't mean that he's wishing him well, or cares for his life. He cares for wellbeing of his own stomach. He protects his own game from being taken by other predators.

14 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

5. Varys possibly warns Aerys of Rhaegar's Harrenhal plot. Trying to avoid war. 

Trying to start a civil war between father and son, and when one of them will die, and the other will be dealing with ruined 7K, then Blackfyres/Varys were going to launch their attack on KL by Golden Company.

14 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

So, if Aegon is a Blackfyre, then why did Varys come to Westeros before Aegon was born.

Because Varys (who is himself a Blackfyre) had his own goals and plans to seize Iron Throne, maybe since he was still a child. So when he grew up, he went to Westeros, and was in the middle of arranging Sixths Rebellion of Blackfyres, when Robert's Rebellion unexpectedly happened. At that time project fAegon wasn't even in the making.

So yes, Varys came to Westeros, even before Aegon was born. Because those two things are totally unconnected.

14 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

Mummer's Dragon- Not Mummers Dragon. This is possessive. Meaning the Mummer possesses the Dragon. Not, the Fake Dragon. Dany interprets wrong, we as the readers on the other hand are given the printed word. Mummer's.

The Mummer, is Varys. Aegon is his Dragon.

Doesn't matter whether he is mummers dragon or mummer's dragon. The overall idea of it is still the same - theater/performarce/makeup/camouflage + the dragon, thus - the dragon is FAKE. He is not who they claim he is.

Furtermore Dany didn't interpreted it wrong. We, as readers, may be unsure (or just don't remember) whether correct version is mummers or mummer's, but she SAW it.

Quote

Then phantoms shivered through the murk, images in indigo.

A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd.

It doesn't matter what she called him, the poin is after seeing that scene, this is what she said to Jorah:

Quote

A mummer’s dragon, you said. What is a mummer’s dragon, pray?”

A cloth dragon on poles,” Dany explained. “Mummers use them in their follies, to give the heroes something to fight.

Jorah said mummer's. Dany said that mummers use them. Whether it's mummer's or mummers, the dragon is a FAKE. That's the point of a vision. Because the Undying said to Dany, while they were simultaneously showing to her those visions - "mother of dragons, slayer of lies". Thus mummer's dragon is one of lies that she will slay.

By the way, slaying lies doesn't mean to kill liars, it means to reveal that lie, to unmask liars, to find out truth.

P.S. My mistake writing mummers dragon, instead of mummer's dragon. Though it doesn't change the overall idea. The point is - fAegon is a fake.

Edited by Megorova

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On 2/9/2018 at 8:55 PM, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Because there, she isn't especially likeable, and after the Meereen clusterfuck there aren't many readers left who'd think "Yeah, let's put her on the Iron Throne, that should end well".

Nor are Tyrion, or Arya at that point; George often times plays with his "treasures" and gives them hell, only for them to bounce back as we willl see if he ever finish the books lol

The one thing I am sure is that our mains and POVs have a much greater chance to get Casterly or Wintefell or the Red Keep that absolute, one liners new comers such as Rickon and Aegon...

Whereas there have been characters introduced later, such as ser Davos, Jorah, etc they appear to have at least substance, both Aegon or FAegon and Rickon are flatter than a pancake; or totally unknown... If he makes the winners characters we have not been able to explore until book 6 I would be pissed indeed.  Okay, my own preference but I doubt I am alone on this...

Edited by Morgana Lannister

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7 hours ago, Megorova said:

Furtermore Dany didn't interpreted it wrong. We, as readers, may be unsure (or just don't remember) whether correct version is mummers or mummer's, but she SAW it.

Well i get you have different interpretations that id have to mostly disagree with. This i will say. Dany didn't see anything, Quiathe told her this warning. Nothing to see. She heard a word. You read the word. Dany can be forgiven. 

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On 2/10/2018 at 3:01 AM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Why would a Pentoshi magister seek to replace Robert with Viserys in the early days of Robert’s reign? 

to make room for his own son???

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11 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

Well i get you have different interpretations that id have to mostly disagree with. This i will say. Dany didn't see anything, Quiathe told her this warning. Nothing to see. She heard a word. You read the word.

She did saw, and many of those things already happened: Prince Rhaegar with Elia, naming their son; Rhaegar's death; Jon's birth; Jon's life in Winterfell; War of Five Kings; Red Wedding; Stannis Baratheon, the fake Azor Ahai. Some things Dany may have already known from other sources, even before going into the House of Undying, but some things there was no way for her to know. For example about Red Wedding, that didn't even happened at the time of her visit to the Undying. Or that Stannis has blue eyes, or that he has a fake Lightbringer, or that his shadow is missing, because it went to kill Renly and didn't returned (^_^ just kidding). Those visions were real, and what they said to Dany, also did already partially happened: first treason the one for blood (kidnapping of Rhaego by Dothraki), first fire the one for life (Drogo's funeral pyre, on which dragon eggs hatched), first mount to ride the one to bed (Daario Naharis), second mount the one to dread (Hizdahr zo Loraq).

Some things were said to her, the others were shown. She saw video, not only heard audio. Audio, video:

Quote

Then phantoms shivered through the murk, images in indigo. Viserys screamed as the molten gold ran down his cheeks and filled his mouth. A tall lord with copper skin and silver-gold hair stood beneath the banner of a fiery stallion, a burning city behind him. Rubies flew like drops of blood from the chest of a dying prince, and he sank to his knees in the water and with his last breath murmured a woman’s name. . . . mother of dragons, daughter of death . . . Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow. A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd. From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire. . . . mother of dragons, slayer of lies . . . Her silver was trotting through the grass, to a darkling stream beneath a sea of stars. A corpse stood at the prow of a ship, eyes bright in his dead face, grey lips smiling sadly. A blue flower grew from a chink in a wall of ice, and filled the air with sweetness. . . . mother of dragons, bride of fire . . .

Faster and faster the visions came, one after the other, until it seemed as if the very air had come alive. Shadows whirled and danced inside a tent, boneless and terrible. A little girl ran barefoot toward a big house with a red door. Mirri Maz Duur shrieked in the flames, a dragon bursting from her brow. Behind a silver horse the bloody corpse of a naked man bounced and dragged. A white lion ran through grass taller than a man. Beneath the Mother of Mountains, a line of naked crones crept from a great lake and knelt shivering before her, their grey heads bowed. Ten thousand slaves lifted bloodstained hands as she raced by on her silver, riding like the wind. “Mother!” they cried. “Mother, mother!” They were reaching for her, touching her, tugging at her cloak, the hem of her skirt, her foot, her leg, her breast. They wanted her, needed her, the fire, the life, and Dany gasped and opened her arms to give herself to them . . .

Dany SAW that cloth dragon, and all those other things.

And Quaithe said to Dany, not to mind what she has experienced in THOU, because she wanted Dany to follow a different path, to listen to Quaithe's guidance, and not the prophecies of the Undying. Because those events will still happen, whether Dany will know about them beforehand, or won't. But if she will be in constant dread, waiting for those things to happen, then this will only make her life more problematic. For example, because of what the Undying said, she's weary of everyone around her, she's constantly waiting for those betrayals to happen, and doesn't trust anyone. She's suspicious of everyone, even royal to her people, like Barristan and Missandei. So it will be better for her, to forget about those prophecies, and live her life without minding them. She can't change the future, those things will still happen, which doesn't mean that she should spent the rest of her life, while waiting for them to happen.

I'm sure that the Undying weren't lying, and that they did know the future. You may have different opinion. We'll just have to wait for the next book, and then we will see.

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6 hours ago, Megorova said:

She did saw, and many of those things already happened: Prince Rhaegar with Elia, naming their son; Rhaegar's death; Jon's birth; Jon's life in Winterfell; War of Five Kings; Red Wedding; Stannis Baratheon, the fake Azor Ahai. Some things Dany may have already known from other sources, even before going into the House of Undying, but some things there was no way for her to know. For example about Red Wedding, that didn't even happened at the time of her visit to the Undying. Or that Stannis has blue eyes, or that he has a fake Lightbringer, or that his shadow is missing, because it went to kill Renly and didn't returned (^_^ just kidding). Those visions were real, and what they said to Dany, also did already partially happened: first treason the one for blood (kidnapping of Rhaego by Dothraki), first fire the one for life (Drogo's funeral pyre, on which dragon eggs hatched), first mount to ride the one to bed (Daario Naharis), second mount the one to dread (Hizdahr zo Loraq).

Some things were said to her, the others were shown. She saw video, not only heard audio. Audio, video:

Dany SAW that cloth dragon, and all those other things.

And Quaithe said to Dany, not to mind what she has experienced in THOU, because she wanted Dany to follow a different path, to listen to Quaithe's guidance, and not the prophecies of the Undying. Because those events will still happen, whether Dany will know about them beforehand, or won't. But if she will be in constant dread, waiting for those things to happen, then this will only make her life more problematic. For example, because of what the Undying said, she's weary of everyone around her, she's constantly waiting for those betrayals to happen, and doesn't trust anyone. She's suspicious of everyone, even royal to her people, like Barristan and Missandei. So it will be better for her, to forget about those prophecies, and live her life without minding them. She can't change the future, those things will still happen, which doesn't mean that she should spent the rest of her life, while waiting for them to happen.

I'm sure that the Undying weren't lying, and that they did know the future. You may have different opinion. We'll just have to wait for the next book, and then we will see.

No, just no lol This is told to Dany by Quiathe with no connection to visions in the HOTU. Not a one stated.

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I actually believe he's fake.  I don't think Tywin will be sloppy.  He wanted Cersei to be queen, he would make sure any threats will be eliminated.  If Elia and her daughter are dead, they would make sure the son is dead too.  He would be perceived as more of a threat than his mother and sister. 

 

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11 hours ago, goldenmaps said:

I actually believe he's fake.  I don't think Tywin will be sloppy.  He wanted Cersei to be queen, he would make sure any threats will be eliminated.  If Elia and her daughter are dead, they would make sure the son is dead too.  He would be perceived as more of a threat than his mother and sister. 

 

Tywin tells Tyrion when Tyrion lays the claim at his feet, that he did not indeed give that order. That the Mountain and Armory took that upon them selves. That he knew the Mountain was a brute and good for battle, but never knew he was quite so monstrous. Tywin does not feel overtly bad about it though mind you as it still achieved the desired task. 

A Storm of Swords - Tyrion VI

It might serve, Tyrion had to concede, but the snake will not be happy. "Far be it from me to question your cunning, Father, but in your place I do believe I'd have let Robert Baratheon bloody his own hands."
Lord Tywin stared at him as if he had lost his wits. "You deserve that motley, then. We had come late to Robert's cause. It was necessary to demonstrate our loyalty. When I laid those bodies before the throne, no man could doubt that we had forsaken House Targaryen forever. And Robert's relief was palpable. As stupid as he was, even he knew that Rhaegar's children had to die if his throne was ever to be secure. Yet he saw himself as a hero, and heroes do not kill children." His father shrugged. "I grant you, it was done too brutally. Elia need not have been harmed at all, that was sheer folly. By herself she was nothing."
"Then why did the Mountain kill her?"
"Because I did not tell him to spare her. I doubt I mentioned her at all. I had more pressing concerns. Ned Stark's van was rushing south from the Trident, and I feared it might come to swords between us. And it was in Aerys to murder Jaime, with no more cause than spite. That was the thing I feared most. That, and what Jaime himself might do." He closed a fist. "Nor did I yet grasp what I had in Gregor Clegane, only that he was huge and terrible in battle. The rape . . . even you will not accuse me of giving that command, I would hope. Ser Amory was almost as bestial with Rhaenys. I asked him afterward why it had required half a hundred thrusts to kill a girl of . . . two? Three? He said she'd kicked him and would not stop screaming. If Lorch had half the wits the gods gave a turnip, he would have calmed her with a few sweet words and used a soft silk pillow." His mouth twisted in distaste. "The blood was in him."
 
Now whether or not we believe him is a debate. His mouth twist in distaste when Tywin wont feign emotions if he doesn't feel them. 
Though he hopes Tyrion wouldn't accuse him of ordering her rape. So, did Tywin order the rape of Tysha or no? Jamie kind of backs up the story that Tywin did. 
Though, i doubt Tywin ordered Cat's murder either, probably just Robb's to end the war.

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On 2/10/2018 at 1:49 PM, Megorova said:

They weren't planning to replace Robert in early days of his reign. They needed time to prepare for their invasion, and also for Viserys to grow up, and lead their army to Westeros. Not that they needed specifically Viserys, to be their commander, it's just that they needed a Targaryen, any Targaryen, for them to have a formal right/execuse to claim Iron Throne.

Even by the time when Robert died, they were still unready to launch their invasion.

They were slowly preparing for their invasion, from the time even before Robert's Rebellion. I think Blackfyres planned to invade Westeros, in early 280s. That's why Varys was installed into Targaryen court, and was badmouthing Rhaegar, and whispering to Aerys about Rhaegar's treason. They planned to begin with a civil war between Targaryens, and then to crush the winner with an attack of Golden Company.

When Viserys and Dany were evacuated to Braavos, Varys and Illyrio arranged that marriage agreement to be signed between Willem Darry and Martells, because they planned that several years later, when Viserys will marry with Arianne, Martells will support Targaryens with their army. This is exactly what they want to do now - same thing as they planned to do before - arranged marriage, and then for united army of Martells and Golden Company to march towards King's Landing.

And about Illyrio - he and Varys (maybe) are brothers-in-law, thus even though Illyrio himself isn't a Blackfyre, nevertheless he is still strongly connected with them and their goals.

It does work.

They say to people that he is son of Rhaegar Targaryen, and that is the lie. He may be a dragon, but he is not a Targaryen dragon, like Rhaegar was, like Dany and Rhaego are. If he is a Blackfyre, then he is still a dragon, but he is not Dany's nephew. And Varys with Illyrio doesn't introduce fAegon to Westerosian general public, as just a dragonblood, they pose him specifically as Rhaegar's son, Aegon, the one that is actually dead, and has been dead for the last 17 years.

Trying to protect his investments, not lives of Targaryens.

He already has spent a few years in Targaryen court, he already installed many of his spies all over 7K (people that worked for Blackfyres), and he was planning to seize Iron Throne, by ruining Targaryens from within. Thus their death from hands of Lannisters, or Robert Baratheon, and then establishment of Robert as new King of 7K, was against Varys' plans. He wanted to put his own King on Iron Throne, not Robert.

It's the same kind of thing, when the wolf saves the rabbit from the fox, only to be able to eat it later by himself. Though the wolf saved the rabbit from the fox, doesn't mean that he's wishing him well, or cares for his life. He cares for wellbeing of his own stomach. He protects his own game from being taken by other predators.

Trying to start a civil war between father and son, and when one of them will die, and the other will be dealing with ruined 7K, then Blackfyres/Varys were going to launch their attack on KL by Golden Company.

Because Varys (who is himself a Blackfyre) had his own goals and plans to seize Iron Throne, maybe since he was still a child. So when he grew up, he went to Westeros, and was in the middle of arranging Sixths Rebellion of Blackfyres, when Robert's Rebellion unexpectedly happened. At that time project fAegon wasn't even in the making.

So yes, Varys came to Westeros, even before Aegon was born. Because those two things are totally unconnected.

Doesn't matter whether he is mummers dragon or mummer's dragon. The overall idea of it is still the same - theater/performarce/makeup/camouflage + the dragon, thus - the dragon is FAKE. He is not who they claim he is.

Furtermore Dany didn't interpreted it wrong. We, as readers, may be unsure (or just don't remember) whether correct version is mummers or mummer's, but she SAW it.

It doesn't matter what she called him, the poin is after seeing that scene, this is what she said to Jorah:

Jorah said mummer's. Dany said that mummers use them. Whether it's mummer's or mummers, the dragon is a FAKE. That's the point of a vision. Because the Undying said to Dany, while they were simultaneously showing to her those visions - "mother of dragons, slayer of lies". Thus mummer's dragon is one of lies that she will slay.

By the way, slaying lies doesn't mean to kill liars, it means to reveal that lie, to unmask liars, to find out truth.

P.S. My mistake writing mummers dragon, instead of mummer's dragon. Though it doesn't change the overall idea. The point is - fAegon is a fake.

You miss my point...

Why would a Pentoshi magister begin planning to replace Robert with Viserys in the early days of Robert’s reign? What was his motivation a year into Robert’s glorious reign? 

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On 2/10/2018 at 10:09 PM, Morgana Lannister said:

to make room for his own son???

Yes, that could explain it. But @Megorova thinks that Illyrio’s initial plan from the begining was "to put Viserys on Iron Throne. They also helped Martells to get in contact with surviving Targaryens. They arranged agreement of marriage between Viserys and Arianne. Five years later, Viserys was 13 years old. By that time it was already obvious that he has a shitty personality, and that he is not a good leader, and he's going to be even a worse king."

So, my question to anyome who believes that Illyrio and Varys wanted to put Viserys on the throne, at least in the beginning, is why would a Pentoshi magister beginning to restore Viserys in the early years of Robert's glorious reign? 

Oh, and it should be noted that the George said in an SSM that Varys and Illyrio did not know of the secret Arianne-Viserys betrothal. 

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2 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

Tywin tells Tyrion when Tyrion lays the claim at his feet, that he did not indeed give that order. That the Mountain and Armory took that upon them selves. That he knew the Mountain was a brute and good for battle, but never knew he was quite so monstrous. Tywin does not feel overtly bad about it though mind you as it still achieved the desired task. 

A Storm of Swords - Tyrion VI

It might serve, Tyrion had to concede, but the snake will not be happy. "Far be it from me to question your cunning, Father, but in your place I do believe I'd have let Robert Baratheon bloody his own hands."
Lord Tywin stared at him as if he had lost his wits. "You deserve that motley, then. We had come late to Robert's cause. It was necessary to demonstrate our loyalty. When I laid those bodies before the throne, no man could doubt that we had forsaken House Targaryen forever. And Robert's relief was palpable. As stupid as he was, even he knew that Rhaegar's children had to die if his throne was ever to be secure. Yet he saw himself as a hero, and heroes do not kill children." His father shrugged. "I grant you, it was done too brutally. Elia need not have been harmed at all, that was sheer folly. By herself she was nothing."
"Then why did the Mountain kill her?"
"Because I did not tell him to spare her. I doubt I mentioned her at all. I had more pressing concerns. Ned Stark's van was rushing south from the Trident, and I feared it might come to swords between us. And it was in Aerys to murder Jaime, with no more cause than spite. That was the thing I feared most. That, and what Jaime himself might do." He closed a fist. "Nor did I yet grasp what I had in Gregor Clegane, only that he was huge and terrible in battle. The rape . . . even you will not accuse me of giving that command, I would hope. Ser Amory was almost as bestial with Rhaenys. I asked him afterward why it had required half a hundred thrusts to kill a girl of . . . two? Three? He said she'd kicked him and would not stop screaming. If Lorch had half the wits the gods gave a turnip, he would have calmed her with a few sweet words and used a soft silk pillow." His mouth twisted in distaste. "The blood was in him."
 
Now whether or not we believe him is a debate. His mouth twist in distaste when Tywin wont feign emotions if he doesn't feel them. 
Though he hopes Tyrion wouldn't accuse him of ordering her rape. So, did Tywin order the rape of Tysha or no? Jamie kind of backs up the story that Tywin did. 
Though, i doubt Tywin ordered Cat's murder either, probably just Robb's to end the war.

The thing that makes me think that Tywin did intend for Aegon, Rhaenys, and Elia to be murdered is that we are told in TWOIAF that Tywin handpicked Gregor and Amory to go it the Red Keep. We also know that Tywin was slighted by Rhaegar's marriage to Elia rather than Cersei. 

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7 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Oh, and it should be noted that the George said in an SSM that Varys and Illyrio did not know of the secret Arianne-Viserys betrothal. 

Ok, sure. But it's a logical course of actions, that eventually they (Blackfyres) would have planned to arrange a marriage alliance of Targaryens with Martells, to get for themselves assistance from Dorne, during their invasion. Or to marry Viserys with Arianne, and Dany with some khal, and to get for Golden Company help from both Martells and Dothraki.

7 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

You miss my point...

Why would a Pentoshi magister begin planning to replace Robert with Viserys in the early days of Robert’s reign? What was his motivation a year into Robert’s glorious reign? 

Short answer - Blackfyres wanted to return to Westeros. Furthermore they wanted to rule over 7K, for which they needed to plant their own King on Iron Throne. Not necessary Viserys. And Robert had nothing to do with their plans, it's just happened that Robert became King of 7K, and thus became an obstacle for Blackfyres. Same as before Robert, were Aerys and Rhaegar.

Long answer:

You're also missing my point. They - Blackfyres - planned to seize 7K even before Robert's Rebellion. Varys, who is one of their leaders, infiltrated court of Targaryens in 270's. For several years after his arrival to Westeros, he was preparing political ground for Sixth Blackfyre Rebellion. Varys was planting or bying spies/supporters all over 7K. He was creating political and military support and leverage, for an upcoming invasion of Blackfyres. First he planned to clash Targaryens together, and start a civil war in 7K, between supporters of King Aerys and prince Rhaegar. And then, after death of one of them, he was going to attack King's Landing with Golden Company. But planned by him conspiracy at Harrenhal, didn't went like he wanted it to go. Prince Rhaegar didn't had even a slightest inclinations to go against his father. Furthermore after Harrenhal, Rhaegar has deviated even farther away from Varys' plans, and then he kidnapped Lyanna, and caused Robert's Rebellion. Blackfyres did planned to overthrow Targaryens, but they planned in the course of it, to plant on Iron Throne their own King. When Robert and with him Stormlands, and The Vale, and the North, opposed Targaryens, whatever control and leverage Varys managed to create in 7K, during years of his undercover work, were lost. Balance of power in 7K completely shifted because of Robert. Thus Blackfyres became unable to attack 7K. Maybe out of those royal Houses, that got involved into confrontation between Robert and Aerys, some of them were supposed to help Blackfyres, during their invasion. For example to supply them with food and ammunition, or provide them with intel needed for attack. Maybe some of those Houses were anixilated in course of Robert's Rebellion. Or they changed their mind, and didn't wanted anymore to support Blackfyres. Could be that some of them, originally agreed to become traitors of Crown, because they didn't wanted to serve to Mad King. But when Mad King was killed, and Iron Throne became Robert's, they were content to have him as their King (at least in the beginning). Blackfyres are better than Mad King, but Robert as a King, is better than Blackfyres. The point of all of it, is that the invasion was postponed for later, for unknown amount of time. And they (Blackfyres/Varys) had to start everything from the very beginning.  

Thus back to your post - as I already said before, they were not planning, or beginning to plan, to overthrow Robert in early days of his reign. Their planning began long before that, probably when Robert wasn't even Lord of Stormlands. They were unable to launch their attack at that time, or prior Robert's Rebellion, or after Robert's crowning, or in early years of Robert's reign. Preparations for invasion took many years, and they finally launched their attack only recently, in 300 AC. Among things that they did in those years, were - "saving" Viserys and Dany from Dragonstone; bringing them to Braavos, where they lived for five years in a house with red door (which I think was a mark, made by spies of Blackfyres, that in this house live Red Dragons/Targaryens); making JonCon to join Golden Company; maybe poisoning Willem Darry; bringing fAegon to JonCon; making Targaryens to be on constant run from imaginary assassins; arranging Dany's marriage with Khal Drogo, etc.

Thus Illyrio's and Varys' plans had nothing to do with Robert, or for how long was he sitting on Iron Throne. They planned to invade 7K even before Robert was born. Blackfyres always wanted to return to Westeros. To do that, they planned their invasion for many years - years before Robert's Rebellion, and years after it.

So his motivation a year into Robert’s glorious reign, was the same as 1 year before that, same as 5 years before that, same as 10 or 20 years before that, and 15 years after beginning of Robert's reign - to return Blackfyres and their supporters to Westeros, and to seize Iron Throne fo them. That's what they always wanted, so time is irrelevant.

Edited by Megorova

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28 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Ok, sure. But it's a logical course of actions, that eventually they (Blackfyres) would have planned to arrange a marriage alliance of Targaryens with Martells, to get for themselves assistance from Dorne, during their invasion. Or to marry Viserys with Arianne, and Dany with some khal, and to get for Golden Company help from both Martells and Dothraki.

Perhaps, but they had not taken that step yet. They might have had their eye on Margaery. A key to the fAegon plot would have been counting on the late Elia’s family in Sunspear backing her presumed son. 

29 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Short answer - Blackfyres wanted to return to Westeros. Furthermore they wanted to rule over 7K, for which they needed to plant their own King on Iron Throne. Not necessary Viserys. And Robert had nothing to do with their plans, it's just happened that Robert became King of 7K, and thus became an obstacle for Blackfyres. Same as before Robert, were Aerys and Rhaegar.

Long answer:

You're also missing my point. They - Blackfyres - planned to seize 7K even before Robert's Rebellion. Varys, who is one of their leaders, infiltrated court of Targaryens in 270's. For several years after his arrival to Westeros, he was preparing political ground for Sixth Blackfyre Rebellion. Varys was planting or bying spies/supporters all over 7K. He was creating political and military support and leverage, for an upcoming invasion of Blackfyres. First he planned to clash Targaryens together, and start a civil war in 7K, between supporters of King Aerys and prince Rhaegar. And then, after death of one of them, he was going to attack King's Landing with Golden Company. But planned by him conspiracy at Harrenhal, didn't went like he wanted it to go. Prince Rhaegar didn't had even a slightest inclinations to go against his father. Furthermore after Harrenhal, Rhaegar has deviated even farther away from Varys' plans, and then he kidnapped Lyanna, and caused Robert's Rebellion. Blackfyres did planned to overthrow Targaryens, but they planned in the course of it, to plant on Iron Throne their own King. When Robert and with him Stormlands, and The Vale, and the North, opposed Targaryens, whatever control and leverage Varys managed to create in 7K, during years of his undercover work, were lost. Balance of power in 7K completely shifted because of Robert. Thus Blackfyres became unable to attack 7K. Maybe out of those royal Houses, that got involved into confrontation between Robert and Aerys, some of them were supposed to help Blackfyres, during their invasion. For example to supply them with food and ammunition, or provide them with intel needed for attack. Maybe some of those Houses were anixilated in course of Robert's Rebellion. Or they changed their mind, and didn't wanted anymore to support Blackfyres. Could be that some of them, originally agreed to become traitors of Crown, because they didn't wanted to serve to Mad King. But when Mad King was killed, and Iron Throne became Robert's, they were content to have him as their King (at least in the beginning). Blackfyres are better than Mad King, but Robert as a King, is better than Blackfyres. The point of all of it, is that the invasion was postponed for later, for unknown amount of time. And they (Blackfyres/Varys) had to start everything from the very beginning.  

Thus back to your post - as I already said before, they were not planning, or beginning to plan, to overthrow Robert in early days of his reign. Their planning began long before that, probably when Robert wasn't even Lord of Stormlands. They were unable to launch their attack at that time, or prior Robert's Rebellion, or after Robert's crowning, or in early years of Robert's reign. Preparations for invasion took many years, and they finally launched their attack only recently, in 300 AC. Among things that they did in those years, were - "saving" Viserys and Dany from Dragonstone; bringing them to Braavos, where they lived for five years in a house with red door (which I think was a mark, made by spies of Blackfyres, that in this house live Red Dragons/Targaryens); making JonCon to join Golden Company; maybe poisoning Willem Darry; bringing fAegon to JonCon; making Targaryens to be on constant run from imaginary assassins; arranging Dany's marriage with Khal Drogo, etc.

Thus Illyrio's and Varys' plans had nothing to do with Robert, or for how long was he sitting on Iron Throne. They planned to invade 7K even before Robert was born. Blackfyres always wanted to return to Westeros. To do that, they planned their invasion for many years - years before Robert's Rebellion, and years after it.

So his motivation a year into Robert’s glorious reign, was the same as 1 year before that, same as 5 years before that, same as 10 or 20 years before that, and 15 years after beginning of Robert's reign - to return Blackfyres and their supporters to Westeros, and to seize Iron Throne fo them. That's what they always wanted, so time is irrelevant.

That would explain Varys's motivation to bring down Aerys and then Robert. But what was Illyrio's motivation back then? 

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