NFL Offseason '18: Our American Cousins

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

But he could replace Brees right now with this specific offense. Brees only threw 23 TDs this year. Cousins would throw more than that if he was in this offense, which doesn’t require the QB to do a whole lot. That’s why I said I wouldn’t expect much of a drop off if you swapped the two QBs.

Yeah I still agree with Maith - would rather take Brees this past year and even this coming year at 39.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Here are Brees and Cousins stats for this year.  Brees is better in every way except tds thrown:  yards, int, comp %, first downs, td/int ratio.  And Brees' touchdown number was low largely because the Saints having a rushing attack that led the league in touchdowns this year (23), well ahead of the Redskins (10).  You might come back with "but Cousins would benefit from that run game too!" which is true to some extent, but teams are way more afraid of Brees than they are of Cousins, so there's every reason to think Kamara might have a little less room with Captain Kirk in the backfield.

Brees' touchdown figures have been very high for his whole career, so if anything, this year is likely an aberration.  In 2016, he had 37 tds on a very mediocre Saints team.  Hell, the last time Brees had only 23 tds was 2003. 

Really the only way that you can say that Brees and Cousins are "maybe kinda" comparable is if you think Brees' play is going to fall off a cliff in his old age.  Last year saw no signs of that, and I don't expect it this year either. 

I said last week that Brees was better in basically every statistical category outside of TDs, but I also highlighted that Cousins wasn't all that far behind him. If memory serves me correctly, Brees was 1st in accuracy and Cousins was 9th. Brees was 4th in yards and Cousins was 7th. The point is Cousins isn't that far back statistically, and Brees has more talent around him, so it's not some absurd hot take to argue that Cousins could replicate what Brees achieved to some extent. Another thing to keep in mind is that NO's O-Line was great this year while Washington's was bad. That would also vastly improve Cousins' ability to perform. 

As far as Brees' decline goes, yes, I expect it to kick in sooner than later. What Brees and Brady are doing is highly atypical, and it would seem to me that the safer bet is that they'll both decline drastically over the next two seasons. You can already see it with both of them when it comes to the deep ball, and that's usually one of the first things to go once a QB hits the decline phase of their career arc. A stat I couldn't find though is what is the average velocity on their passes and how does that compare to 5 and 10 years ago. I'd guess it's dropped quite a bit.

6 hours ago, dmc515 said:

Yeah I still agree with Maith - would rather take Brees this past year and even this coming year at 39.

I don't believe I've disagreed with this. In fact, I've said before in these threads that I'd be cool with the Vikings signing Brees for two years at $30m a year while I've repeatedly said I do not want them to sign Cousins for the same amount. My argument is that the Saints could still be successful with Cousins, and that's probably true with a lot of the middle of the road QBs. Just look at Case Keenum. He was an undrafted journeyman QB who never looked very good, but he was a top 10 QB this year because he found himself surrounded by top tier skill position players and a decent O-Line. I think you could take a lot of middle of the road QBs and put them in Minny and they'd look good too. Just like with the Saints.  

[Jace, Extat]

My main man Ty is right.

NO ONE is saying that Cousins is better than Breez.

But he's a better option at this point because he is younger. The Saints don't need a great QB to succeed, a moderate one will do just fine.

Seriously, the days of air raid NO is over. Payton openly salivated at Kyle Shannahan's use of RB's because he stole a bunch of his tendencies (not really the concepts) last year.

Any QB can throw for 5000 yards in a losing effort. Matt Stafford almost looks good sometimes. The Saints are transitioning to a balanced team because at the end of the day Brese was only great, for all the yards and TD's and pretty numbers he lacked the ability to simply drag a team to the postseason every year like a Brady or Manning.

[Maithanet]

So some part of me is hoping the Redskins do franchise tag Cousins.

1.  It will make them look like assholes, and they are, so that works out nicely. 

2.  It will almost assuredly blow up in their faces.  Even if Cousins doesn't win arbitration, he could still just sign the tag and say "I'm not negotiating or signing a long term deal with anyone.  I am going to be a free agent in 2019."  Guess what happens then?  The Redskins get to pay their backup quarterback $33 million dollars!  Wouldn't that be fun?  Then the Redskins would need to find a team to take on Cousin's $33 million salary for a one year rental.  Can't imagine there'll be a lot of takers there.  And if they can't, they'll have to make a Brock Osweiler deal to get that $33 million off the books!  Just imagine it:  Redskins trade Kirk Cousins and a 4th round pick to the Cleveland Browns for a 7th round pick. 

Oh man, I'd laugh my ass off. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 hours ago, Maithanet said:

So some part of me is hoping the Redskins do franchise tag Cousins.

1.  It will make them look like assholes, and they are, so that works out nicely. 

2.  It will almost assuredly blow up in their faces.  Even if Cousins doesn't win arbitration, he could still just sign the tag and say "I'm not negotiating or signing a long term deal with anyone.  I am going to be a free agent in 2019."  Guess what happens then?  The Redskins get to pay their backup quarterback $33 million dollars!  Wouldn't that be fun?  Then the Redskins would need to find a team to take on Cousin's $33 million salary for a one year rental.  Can't imagine there'll be a lot of takers there.  And if they can't, they'll have to make a Brock Osweiler deal to get that $33 million off the books!  Just imagine it:  Redskins trade Kirk Cousins and a 4th round pick to the Cleveland Browns for a 7th round pick. 

Oh man, I'd laugh my ass off. 

I thought you couldn't trade a franchised player unless there was clear evidence that both sides engaged in good faith negotiations on a long term contract after the player had been franchised. Is that not the case?

Also, I'd totally be down for the Vikings trading a mid round pick for a one year rental at that price. It's the length of what he wants that should make teams nervous.  

[Jace, Extat]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

I thought you couldn't trade a franchised player unless there was clear evidence that both sides engaged in good faith negotiations on a long term contract after the player had been franchised. Is that not the case?

Also, I'd totally be down for the Vikings trading a mid round pick for a one year rental at that price. It's the length of what he wants that should make teams nervous.  

The league does not follow 'rules'

[Jace, Extat]

Mike Florio's reporting that less-than-new Colts DC Matt Eberflus wants to return to the days of the Cover 2 because in his words 'It's just been good throughout time'.

So we should settle for that.

While thinking about the comically overhyped Malik Hooker (that's what they'll say in 3 years when he becomes the best FA pickup of all time) whiling away covering token 9 routes from the 6th string WR every play I looked up some old Bob Sanders highlights (also done a disservice by the Cover 2).

Remember Vince Young? Shit, right?

[Maithanet]

15 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I thought you couldn't trade a franchised player unless there was clear evidence that both sides engaged in good faith negotiations on a long term contract after the player had been franchised. Is that not the case?

Also, I'd totally be down for the Vikings trading a mid round pick for a one year rental at that price. It's the length of what he wants that should make teams nervous.  

Officially yes, but that rule has not really been enforced.  The Patriots franchised Matt Cassell and then immediately traded him to the Chiefs. 

[Rhom]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Officially yes, but that rule has not really been enforced.  The Patriots franchised Matt Cassell and then immediately traded him to the Chiefs. 

Wait... the Patriots broke a rule?!!?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

8 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Officially yes, but that rule has not really been enforced.  The Patriots franchised Matt Cassell and then immediately traded him to the Chiefs. 

Didn't remember that. Darn those sneaky Pats. 

[Jace, Extat]

3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Didn't remember that. Darn those sneaky Pats. 

Homeboi

Florio has been pretty interested in the idea of BRees to Minn.

As a 2nd rate fan, let me throw an idea at you.

What if they could get Breesus for a fair 25-28 mil AND keep Teddy so he can continue to rehab?

[Fiddler]

32 minutes ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

Homeboi

Florio has been pretty interested in the idea of BRees to Minn.

As a 2nd rate fan, let me throw an idea at you.

What if they could get Breesus for a fair 25-28 mil AND keep Teddy so he can continue to rehab?

God please no.  As a Lions fan, Brees to Minnesota would be horrible.  2 games a season against Rogers and 2 against Brees.  Damn that would suck.

[Jace, Extat]

1 minute ago, Fiddler said:

God please no.  As a Lions fan, Brees to Minnesota would be horrible.  2 games a season against Rogers and 2 against Brees.  Damn that would suck.

Right? It would be like Brett Favre 2.0 except without the Christian Ponder thing afterwards and all the dick pics.

[Jace, Extat]

Charles Tillman is now an FBI Agent.

No word yet on whether he has joined either the Meuller team or the investigation into the death of Freddie Lounds.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

13 hours ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

Homeboi

Florio has been pretty interested in the idea of BRees to Minn.

As a 2nd rate fan, let me throw an idea at you.

What if they could get Breesus for a fair 25-28 mil AND keep Teddy so he can continue to rehab?

First, you’re not second rate.

Second, I’d be fine with it, but I see no reason why he’d leave NO. The situations are relatively the same, so why leave a good thing? I think the Saints should be the favorite in the NFC next year, and I also think it’s going to be Brees’ last high end season, so why hurt your legacy by going elsewhere?

[Red Tiger]

https://78.media.tumblr.com/ade6b1a2b1be6b7e5892773ce4918493/tumblr_p4m96yg7k91rk0k4co1_1280.png

Not my edit.

[Jace, Extat]

On 2/23/2018 at 9:46 AM, Tywin et al. said:

First, you’re not second rate.

Second, I’d be fine with it, but I see no reason why he’d leave NO. The situations are relatively the same, so why leave a good thing? I think the Saints should be the favorite in the NFC next year, and I also think it’s going to be Brees’ last high end season, so why hurt your legacy by going elsewhere?

There's always been beef between Brees and NO, and he's squeezed them for money in the past.

If the Vikings could get him in the building at about 27-30 a year while working out a deal with Teddy to let him backup for 1 year? I think that could work out for everyone. I don't think Brees is going to try to play forever.

Meanwhile, the Jags have extended Blake Bortles until 2020 at 18mil a year.

[dbunting]

4 hours ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

Meanwhile, the Jags have extended Blake Bortles until 2020 at 18mil a year.

You know, at first glance that's really not a bad deal for either side. I mean, Bortles who has been turnover prone gets around 25 mill guaranteed, should be set for life now, and the Jags lock up their QB 10+ mill a year below market rate (or at least below the recent FA starting QB signings).

[Jace, Extat]

40 minutes ago, dbunting said:

You know, at first glance that's really not a bad deal for either side. I mean, Bortles who has been turnover prone gets around 25 mill guaranteed, should be set for life now, and the Jags lock up their QB 10+ mill a year below market rate (or at least below the recent FA starting QB signings).

In the context of the Glennon deal it looks rational. But for a few mil more they could have had Case Keenum or trade a 3rd for Nick Foles.

[Bronn Stone]

The passing numbers for Drew Brees in 2017 were drastically inflated by RB YAC. Kamara and Ingram combined for over 1200. The decline is further along than this thread suggests.