NFL Offseason '18: Our American Cousins

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 hours ago, aceluby said:

How can you ignore health?  We spent $18M for him to sit the bench last year.  Is saving that $12M worth it knowing that a backup will have to start anywhere from 2-15 games?

Sam is a super risky investment that was worth it 2 years ago, but has passed its expiration date.

 

4 hours ago, Maithanet said:

So any "when healthy" what if is meaningless for Bradford.  And regardless, Cousins is better than Bradford. 

You can't ignore health, hence why it's just a hypothetical question. The larger point I was getting at is that it's hard to justify that Kirk is worth $12m more than Bradford or whatever more he's going to be worth than Case? Case is hard to rank, but Cousins, and to a lesser extent Bradford, are both probably in the middle of the pack QB tier where there might be 12 interchangeable guys. 

[dbunting]

7 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

 

You can't ignore health, hence why it's just a hypothetical question. The larger point I was getting at is that it's hard to justify that Kirk is worth $12m more than Bradford or whatever more he's going to be worth than Case? Case is hard to rank, but Cousins, and to a lesser extent Bradford, are both probably in the middle of the pack QB tier where there might be 12 interchangeable guys. 

The problem is Cousins' stats look like top 1/3 or better QB, not middle of the road and he is a free agent, unlike those other middling QB's. This is why teams never let QB's get to this point. Washington totally f'd this thing up. Had they paid him 18-19 mill per year for on a 6 year contract two years ago like he asked for he would seem like a bargain now.

[Red Tiger]

Can somebody explain to me what's going on with Seattle? It seems that every star (not named Russel Wilson) is either getting traded or wants to leave.

[Maithanet]

15 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

 

You can't ignore health, hence why it's just a hypothetical question. The larger point I was getting at is that it's hard to justify that Kirk is worth $12m more than Bradford or whatever more he's going to be worth than Case? Case is hard to rank, but Cousins, and to a lesser extent Bradford, are both probably in the middle of the pack QB tier where there might be 12 interchangeable guys. 

There aren't even close to 12 quarterbacks comparable to Cousins.  There are about 8 guys who are better than him, maybe 4 guys as good, and 4 guys who might become as good or better but aren't yet.  That's it.  And none of those guys are on the open market.  If you think Case Keenum is as good as Cousins, maybe you should check their career stats again.  It's not close - Cousins is significantly better in qb rating, td/int ratio, completion percentage, really any metric that matters. 

30 minutes ago, Red Tiger said:

Can somebody explain to me what's going on with Seattle? It seems that every star (not named Russel Wilson) is either getting traded or wants to leave.

They seem to be really aggressive about not letting their team age into irrelevance.  I get the impression it's causing locker room problems, because a lot of people believe that no matter how well they play, they will get replaced with someone younger. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

There aren't even close to 12 quarterbacks comparable to Cousins.  There are about 8 guys who are better than him, maybe 4 guys as good, and 4 guys who might become as good or better but aren't yet.  That's it.  And none of those guys are on the open market.  If you think Case Keenum is as good as Cousins, maybe you should check their career stats again.  It's not close - Cousins is significantly better in qb rating, td/int ratio, completion percentage, really any metric that matters. r. 

Maith, we’ve had this conversation several times. I firmly believe Cousins’ stats are misleading, and when you watch him play he is thoroughly average IMO. He can hit guys who are wide open, but he doesn’t make his skill position players better. He’s as good as what’s around him, which you can say the same for about a dozen QBs. There are really only a handful a QBs that matter. The rest are either muddled in the middle and can change places year to year based on the season they had and the rest which are just varying levels of garbage. And as far as comparing Case and Cousins goes, who was the one that was considered a MVP candidate this year? Has Cousins ever been considered one? No, of course not. That’s why you can say they’re in the same group of meh.

But here’s the most telling thing, if Cousins was really a franchise QB, there’s a zero percent chance that Washington would have let him leave. That should be a red flag for every team thinking about making him the highest paid player in the league.

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They seem to be really aggressive about not letting their team age into irrelevance.  I get the impression it's causing locker room problems, because a lot of people believe that no matter how well they play, they will get replaced with someone younge

Now on this I agree. The only thing I’d add is that the Seattle locker room has a lot of big personalities, and they’re primarily on the defensive side and it would appear that they’re increasingly growing resentful of Wilson and the offense for letting a historically great defense go to waste.

[Maithanet]

12 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Maith, we’ve had this conversation several times. I firmly believe Cousins’ stats are misleading, and when you watch him play he is thoroughly average IMO. He can hit guys who are wide open, but he doesn’t make his skill position players better. He’s as good as what’s around him, which you can say the same for about a dozen QBs. There are really only a handful a QBs that matter. The rest are either muddled in the middle and can change places year to year based on the season they had and the rest which are just varying levels of garbage.

I know you think Cousin's stats are misleading, but you're wrong about two things. 

1.  The offense in Washington around Cousins this past year was garbage, and he still put up decent numbers.  That isn't "reflecting the talent back" that's making things significantly better.  The O line was all injured, so his pass pro was unreliable and the run blocking was horrible.  We had 7 different running backs and none were good.  The wide receivers were a pretty good slot guy in Crowder and nothing much else.  WR1 Pryor was a complete bust and got benched because he wasn't running the right routes and kept dropping the ball.  WR2 is Doctson who is essentially a rookie and also struggled with route running and drops.  The only truly dynamic player on the offense, Jordan Reed, was injured for almost the entire year. 

2. You are dramatically overstating how many average to somewhat above average quarterbacks there are in the league.  Fully half the league would be improved with Cousins. 

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And as far as comparing Case and Cousins goes, who was the one that was considered a MVP candidate this year? Has Cousins ever been considered one? No, of course not. That’s why you can say they’re in the same group of meh.

Keenum had by far the best year of his career this year, and still his stats for the year are nowhere close to league MVP.  Maybe he had a few good games in a row, but that's just a quirk of timing.  If you only look at the second half of Cousins 2015 campaign, he would absolutely have been considered for MVP.  

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But here’s the most telling thing, if Cousins was really a franchise QB, there’s a zero percent chance that Washington would have let him leave. That should be a red flag for every team thinking about making him the highest paid player in the league.

Washington DID NOT want to let Cousins leave.  Nobody in the organization is happy that they screwed this up so badly.  They can put a brave face on it and talk up Alex Smith all they want, but nobody is buying that crap. 

[Jace, Extat]

So some team asked a kid if he was a gay at the scouting combine.

Again

DeMaurice Smith says that since this keeps happening that teams should be banned from next year's combine.

I agree.

[Rhom]

7 minutes ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

So some team asked a kid if he was a gay at the scouting combine.

Again

DeMaurice Smith says that since this keeps happening that teams should be banned from next year's combine.

I agree.

Believe they also asked if his mom was a prostitute.  

 

[Bronn Stone]

1 hour ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

So some team asked a kid if he was a gay at the scouting combine.

Again

DeMaurice Smith says that since this keeps happening that teams should be banned from next year's combine.

I agree.

I think they should lose draft picks over it, this year.  The CBA expressly prohibits questions of this sort.

[Jace, Extat]

8 minutes ago, Bronn Stone said:

I think they should lose draft picks over it, this year.  The CBA expressly prohibits questions of this sort.

Federal law (used to) prohibit these questions.

Meanwhile, I was visited by a dream. Wrapped in chains and barbs, it was. As I trembled, unable to flee the horrifying visage. It asked what my heart would bear should Lamaarr Jackson be drafted by the Ravens or a similarly despicable franchise.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

6 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I know you think Cousin's stats are misleading, but you're wrong about two things. 

1.  The offense in Washington around Cousins this past year was garbage, and he still put up decent numbers.  That isn't "reflecting the talent back" that's making things significantly better.  The O line was all injured, so his pass pro was unreliable and the run blocking was horrible.  We had 7 different running backs and none were good.  The wide receivers were a pretty good slot guy in Crowder and nothing much else.  WR1 Pryor was a complete bust and got benched because he wasn't running the right routes and kept dropping the ball.  WR2 is Doctson who is essentially a rookie and also struggled with route running and drops.  The only truly dynamic player on the offense, Jordan Reed, was injured for almost the entire year. 

 

I've discussed in the past that Cousins didn't have the greatest supporting cast this season. Hence why I argued before that the Saints would still be a really strong team if you replaced Brees with Cousins. Look, I'm not trying to argue that Cousins is trash. I just think he's a middle of the road QB that has a high usage rate so his stats are a little over inflated. I basically look at it like this. Can you win with Cousins?  Yes. Can he be the reason why you win? Sometimes, but not always. Can he be the reason why you win a championship? No. As @dbunting pointed out, if you could get him for $18-19m a year, you'd have him at decent to good value. But he's not value at $30m, and having good players at good value is a huge key to winning. I'd rather have Keenum and the cap space to keep a Pro Bowl defensive player than Cousins. 

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2. You are dramatically overstating how many average to somewhat above average quarterbacks there are in the league.  Fully half the league would be improved with Cousins. 

I'm not really sure that I am. I think there's a couple guys you can win with no matter what's around them. I think there are half a dozen or so guys in the next tier that are really good, but not great. Then there are the guys who are in the 10-20 range, and I think they can all change places year to year. I have Cousins in that group, albeit usually in the higher end of it.

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Keenum had by far the best year of his career this year, and still his stats for the year are nowhere close to league MVP.  Maybe he had a few good games in a row, but that's just a quirk of timing.  If you only look at the second half of Cousins 2015 campaign, he would absolutely have been considered for MVP.

MVP doesn't always have to be about your raw stats. It's your value to the team, and we would probably not have been a contender without Keenum's play this year. Were his stats amazing? No, but they were still really good. I'd argue better than Kirk's, which is why it's hard to swallow the idea of breaking the bank for him when we could probably have kept Case for a lot less, or at least franchised him to see if 2017 was a fluke or a sign of what he can do when he's surrounded by good players.

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Washington DID NOT want to let Cousins leave.  Nobody in the organization is happy that they screwed this up so badly.  They can put a brave face on it and talk up Alex Smith all they want, but nobody is buying that crap. 

Really? From afar it looked like they liked him, but didn't love him, which is why they were unwilling to give him a high paying long term deal. Is that not the case?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 hours ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

Federal law (used to) prohibit these questions.

Meanwhile, I was visited by a dream. Wrapped in chains and barbs, it was. As I trembled, unable to flee the horrifying visage. It asked what my heart would bear should Lamaarr Jackson be drafted by the Ravens or a similarly despicable franchise.

The Ravens won't pick him that high. Most of the mock drafts have him going in the late first or early to mid second. I am unhappy with all of the mock drafts that have him going at 28 to the Steelers (which makes a lot of sense), because I still don't believe the Vikings would pass on him at 30 unless they sign Cousins.

Also, speaking of the Ravens, has any QB had a more confusing career than Joe Flacco? 

[Jace, Extat]

54 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

The Ravens won't pick him that high. Most of the mock drafts have him going in the late first or early to mid second. I am unhappy with all of the mock drafts that have him going at 28 to the Steelers (which makes a lot of sense), because I still don't believe the Vikings would pass on him at 30 unless they sign Cousins.

Also, speaking of the Ravens, has any QB had a more confusing career than Joe Flacco? 

Brad Johnson gets a $100 contract.

What's confusing?

[Trebla]

So after already acquiring Marcus Peters, the Rams have just traded for Aqib Talib for a 5th rounder. http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22695501/denver-broncos-trade-aqib-talib-los-angeles-rams-2018-fifth-round-draft-pick

Man the NFC is becoming stacked. 

[dbunting]

So Aqib Talib traded from Broncos to the Rams for 2018  pick...clearing cap room for a big FA signing?

 

Also as to the combine questions. As far as I know it's illegal to ask questions in a job interview about sexual orientation, which this cleary was. I have interviewed a lot of people and we are not even allowed to ask if they are married or have kids let alone who they are attracted to or if their moms a hooker! Just another black eye to a league that can't seem to get out of it's own way.

11 hours ago, Maithanet said:

There aren't even close to 12 quarterbacks comparable to Cousins.  There are about 8 guys who are better than him, maybe 4 guys as good, and 4 guys who might become as good or better but aren't yet.  That's it.  And none of those guys are on the open market.  If you think Case Keenum is as good as Cousins, maybe you should check their career stats again.  It's not close - Cousins is significantly better in qb rating, td/int ratio, completion percentage, really any metric that matters. 

They seem to be really aggressive about not letting their team age into irrelevance.  I get the impression it's causing locker room problems, because a lot of people believe that no matter how well they play, they will get replaced with someone younger. 

I have no dog in this arguement / discussion, but my simple math tells me you are mistaken or I don't understand your meaning. You say there aren't even close to 12 QB's comparable to Cousins..then you say their are 8 better, and 4 as good; so literally 12 comparable? Sorry had to post after I saw it!

[Rhom]

49 minutes ago, dbunting said:

So Aqib Talib traded from Broncos to the Rams for 2018  pick...clearing cap room for a big FA signing?

 

Also as to the combine questions. As far as I know it's illegal to ask questions in a job interview about sexual orientation, which this cleary was. I have interviewed a lot of people and we are not even allowed to ask if they are married or have kids let alone who they are attracted to or if their moms a hooker!

I find a simple “What’s your favorite letter of the alphabet?” will often sniff out the kid question.  The response 9/10 times from young mothers is some variation on “S... because my daughters name is Sally.”

Failing that, “My office hours are XXX.  Do you foresee any conflicts with that schedule?” will generally get “Oh no... my kids are picked up before then” or something like that.

But no... I’ve never had to straight up ask “Who do you like to do it with?”

[Maithanet]

12 hours ago, dbunting said:

I have no dog in this arguement / discussion, but my simple math tells me you are mistaken or I don't understand your meaning. You say there aren't even close to 12 QB's comparable to Cousins..then you say their are 8 better, and 4 as good; so literally 12 comparable? Sorry had to post after I saw it!

No, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson are better than Cousins.  They are not comparable.  There are about 4 guys who are more or less as good as Cousins, guys like Matt Stafford, Derek Carr and Philip Rivers.  They are comparable.

Teams that would be better with Cousins than what they have now (12):  Buffalo, Miami, NYJ, Cincy, Cleveland, Baltimore, Jax, Chicago, Minnesota, NYG, WAS, Arizona.

Teams that would be better with Cousins right now, but maybe their young guy can develop (5):  TEN, HOU, KC, DAL, TB, LAR

15 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

As @dbunting pointed out, if you could get him for $18-19m a year, you'd have him at decent to good value. But he's not value at $30m, and having good players at good value is a huge key to winning. I'd rather have Keenum and the cap space to keep a Pro Bowl defensive player than Cousins. 

Once again, the $18 million price point for a starter doesn't exist.  Alex Smith just got $23.5 million a year for the next 4 years, and he's worse than Cousins and past his prime.  Case Keenum will get $20 million/year this offseason (probably from Denver). 

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I'm not really sure that I am. I think there's a couple guys you can win with no matter what's around them. I think there are half a dozen or so guys in the next tier that are really good, but not great. Then there are the guys who are in the 10-20 range, and I think they can all change places year to year. I have Cousins in that group, albeit usually in the higher end of it.

Ok, name these 8 or so guys who are comparable to Cousins in this 10-20 range.  Because i'm pretty confident they are going to fall dramatically short of Cousins in one of two really important ways:  Availability/health and consistency season to season.  Cousins has both. 

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MVP doesn't always have to be about your raw stats. It's your value to the team, and we would probably not have been a contender without Keenum's play this year.

Honestly I never heard Keenum discussed for MVP this year, so your comment really comes from left field for me.  The MVP contenders this year were Wentz , Brady and Gurley. 

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Really? From afar it looked like they liked him, but didn't love him, which is why they were unwilling to give him a high paying long term deal. Is that not the case?

There's been a lot of finger pointing like "I wanted to sign Cousins, but THAT guy said it wasn't worth it."  Nobody has gone on record to say they actually objected to making Cousins a serious offer after the 2015 or the 2016 seasons.  Everybody knows they screwed up, this organization is totally dysfunctional. 

[Rhom]

ESPN is reporting that Seattle will release Richard Sherman.

[Jace, Extat]

18 minutes ago, Rhom said:

ESPN is reporting that Seattle will release Richard Sherman.

Jace is reporting that Rhom gets his news by a  man on horseback.      

[Kalbear]

Seattle can't afford to have Sherman and Bennett and keep most of the rest of their team. It's that simple. And Sherman's performance hasn't been stellar. Bennett knew he'd be leaving. 

Philly and LA are following the 'we have a cheap, good QB right now and can stock the rest of the team with awesome and go for it all' strategy that was used well by...uh...Seattle, actually. And the 49ers before that. Basically any team not the Pats.