NFL Offseason '18: Our American Cousins

[Iskaral Pust]

On 3/8/2018 at 7:53 AM, Red Tiger said:

Can somebody explain to me what's going on with Seattle? It seems that every star (not named Russel Wilson) is either getting traded or wants to leave.

 

14 minutes ago, Rhom said:

ESPN is reporting that Seattle will release Richard Sherman.

They’ve decided it’s time to rebuild the defense.  The Legion of Boom is aging out, Kam and Cliff Avril may have career-ending neck injuries, the pass rush was less effective than expected last year after they traded to add Sheldon Richardson, Malik McDowell’s stupid ATV accident wasted a first round pick spent on pass rush. 

Since their last Super Bowl appearance they’ve spent big money on keeping the defense intact while praying that Wilson would be enough to offset going cheap on the offense.  It didn’t work out.  They’ve fallen backward each season as the low cost OL and RBs held back the running game, while the low cost OL and receiving unit (other than the god-like Baldwin) limit the passing game no matter how much Wilson scrambles.  The old adage is that defense wins championships, except it didn’t.  Last season was supposed to be a conference-dominating, over-powering defense and it never came close. 

I hate to see this great generation of players depart but it’s probably the right call.  They left themselves in a terrible salary cap position as they chased a title shot last year before the defense aged out.  It didn’t work and they have little room for upgrading problem areas unless they make serious changes to high cost players.  Bennett and Sherman are gone, Jimmy Graham will probably be gone, Lacy definitely won’t get renewed, Earl Thomas looks shaky, Kam and Avril will draw on salary cap even while injured, Sheldon Richardson will probably go elsewhere as a free agent.  

So long as they get some draft picks in trades or compensation for free agents, they can go back to the draft blitz strategy that built this generation of players in the first place: young, hungry under-rated players in the later rounds with chips on shoulders and points to prove.  Wilson is the key.  He’s a top-5 QB and he’s still young.  That’s the hardest thing to find and all their competitors with top tier QBs will soon find them to be even more expensive than Wilson.  Seahawks have enough time to build a new team around their QB and be contenders again.

NFC West could be surprisingly open next year with the Rams in good shape, the 49ers emerging with Garrapolo, Cardinals a mystery after their collapse and Seattle rebuilding. 

[sperry]

Bennett should be an interesting test of the Colin Kaepernick theory. Because Bennett is a guy who has been extremely outspoken politically, yet there is zero doubt he can play. If he doesn't land somewhere, that's a pretty obvious blackballing. On the other hand, if Kaepernick was blackballed, you'd expect Bennett to be as well.

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, sperry said:

Bennett should be an interesting test of the Colin Kaepernick theory. Because Bennett is a guy who has been extremely outspoken politically, yet there is zero doubt he can play. If he doesn't land somewhere, that's a pretty obvious blackballing. On the other hand, if Kaepernick was blackballed, you'd expect Bennett to be as well.

Bennett may be extremely outspoken, but he isn't the face of the movement, Kaepernick is.  If you asked me to name NFL players that were involved in the protests, I'm not even sure I would have remembered Bennett, and I followed the issue a lot more closely than most people.  If he can still play, a team will sign him. 

[aceluby]

25 minutes ago, Iskaral Pust said:

So long as they get some draft picks in trades or compensation for free agents, they can go back to the draft blitz strategy that built this generation of players in the first place: young, hungry under-rated players in the later rounds with chips on shoulders and points to prove.  Wilson is the key.  He’s a top-5 QB and he’s still young.  That’s the hardest thing to find and all their competitors with top tier QBs will soon find them to be even more expensive than Wilson.  Seahawks have enough time to build a new team around their QB and be contenders again.

He's really not though.  He's an above average QB that relies on scrambling and throwing on the move to be successful; which is hard to keep going into your 30's.  He's good, but nowhere near elite status like you have with guys like Brady, Rodgers, or Brees.  I mean you said it yourself that when it's up to him to elevate the offense, he wasn't able to step it up.  He's good, and you can certainly build an offense around him, but you can't expect him to be the offense like you would for a top 5 QB.

[Red Tiger]

1 hour ago, Iskaral Pust said:

 

They’ve decided it’s time to rebuild the defense.  The Legion of Boom is aging out, Kam and Cliff Avril may have career-ending neck injuries, the pass rush was less effective than expected last year after they traded to add Sheldon Richardson, Malik McDowell’s stupid ATV accident wasted a first round pick spent on pass rush. 

Since their last Super Bowl appearance they’ve spent big money on keeping the defense intact while praying that Wilson would be enough to offset going cheap on the offense.  It didn’t work out.  They’ve fallen backward each season as the low cost OL and RBs held back the running game, while the low cost OL and receiving unit (other than the god-like Baldwin) limit the passing game no matter how much Wilson scrambles.  The old adage is that defense wins championships, except it didn’t.  Last season was supposed to be a conference-dominating, over-powering defense and it never came close. 

I hate to see this great generation of players depart but it’s probably the right call.  They left themselves in a terrible salary cap position as they chased a title shot last year before the defense aged out.  It didn’t work and they have little room for upgrading problem areas unless they make serious changes to high cost players.  Bennett and Sherman are gone, Jimmy Graham will probably be gone, Lacy definitely won’t get renewed, Earl Thomas looks shaky, Kam and Avril will draw on salary cap even while injured, Sheldon Richardson will probably go elsewhere as a free agent.  

So long as they get some draft picks in trades or compensation for free agents, they can go back to the draft blitz strategy that built this generation of players in the first place: young, hungry under-rated players in the later rounds with chips on shoulders and points to prove.  Wilson is the key.  He’s a top-5 QB and he’s still young.  That’s the hardest thing to find and all their competitors with top tier QBs will soon find them to be even more expensive than Wilson.  Seahawks have enough time to build a new team around their QB and be contenders again.

NFC West could be surprisingly open next year with the Rams in good shape, the 49ers emerging with Garrapolo, Cardinals a mystery after their collapse and Seattle rebuilding. 

This makes a ton of sense. I keep forgetting that 29 is actually old as fuck for a DB. Bennett is a defensive lineman, but he is 32 years of age.

[Maithanet]

18 minutes ago, Red Tiger said:

This makes a ton of sense. I keep forgetting that 29 is actually old as fuck for a DB. Bennett is a defensive lineman, but he is 32 years of age.

That is overstating it a bit.  Plenty of great cornerbacks were still very good in their early thirties.  Champ Bailey was an All-Pro in 2012 at 32.  Charles Woodson was a Pro Bowler in 2011 at age 34, and was second team all-pro in 2015 season at 38. 

So 29 isn't so old - Revis might have another 3-4 very good years in him.  Of course, he might not. 

EDIT:  Fixed year for Charles Woodson.

[Jace, Extat]

14 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

That is overstating it a bit.  Plenty of great cornerbacks were still very good in their early thirties.  Champ Bailey was an All-Pro in 2012 at 32.  Charles Woodson was a Pro Bowler in 2011 at age 34, and was second team all-pro in 2015 season at 38. 

So 29 isn't so old - Revis might have another 3-4 very good years in him.  Of course, he might not. 

EDIT:  Fixed year for Charles Woodson.

Terrance Newman is a perfectly fine starter at 39

[Rhom]

3 hours ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

Jace is reporting that Rhom gets his news by a  man on horseback.      

He was going to hold one lantern if it was Sherman getting canned, two lanterns if Chancellor.

[Iskaral Pust]

2 hours ago, aceluby said:

He's really not though.  He's an above average QB that relies on scrambling and throwing on the move to be successful; which is hard to keep going into your 30's.  He's good, but nowhere near elite status like you have with guys like Brady, Rodgers, or Brees.  I mean you said it yourself that when it's up to him to elevate the offense, he wasn't able to step it up.  He's good, and you can certainly build an offense around him, but you can't expect him to be the offense like you would for a top 5 QB.

I don't think Wilson is quite at the level of those three in a conventional offense, but I doubt any of them would have succeeded with the OL, receiving unit and run support that Wilson has seen in recent years.  When you put Wilson in an offense that suits his ability, then he moves into the top tier.  Definitely a step below Rodgers, but in that top tier.  Similarly, Brady is only really great in an offense that suits his ability.  There are plenty of systems where his production would drop.

[Iskaral Pust]

3 hours ago, Iskaral Pust said:

So long as they get some draft picks in trades or compensation for free agents, they can go back to the draft blitz strategy that built this generation of players in the first place: young, hungry under-rated players in the later rounds with chips on shoulders and points to prove.

By the way, I don't want to sound over-confident of this strategy.  Seahawks were draft gods in 2012 but they've mostly whiffed since.  That's partially because their early success left no playing time for new players and their success pushed their new picks later in the draft, but they also haven't picked very well for a long time.  There's no guarantee that they'll suddenly reverse that slump.  And they'll never again have a situation where they have so much success from low paid rookies (Wilson, Sherman, Wagner, Thomas, Chancellor, etc) while being able to retain expensive established players.  Other than the Patriots, football seems to have a lot of mean reversion because of the system design and the inherent uncertainty/randomness in drafting players.

[briantw]

Browns traded for Landry, apparently.  Gave up two picks, although no word on which picks yet.

[Bronn Stone]

19 minutes ago, briantw said:

Browns traded for Landry, apparently.  Gave up two picks, although no word on which picks yet.

Rhom - keep an ear out for hoofbeats on Monday.

[Red Tiger]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

That is overstating it a bit.  Plenty of great cornerbacks were still very good in their early thirties.  Champ Bailey was an All-Pro in 2012 at 32.  Charles Woodson was a Pro Bowler in 2011 at age 34, and was second team all-pro in 2015 season at 38. 

So 29 isn't so old - Revis might have another 3-4 very good years in him.  Of course, he might not. 

EDIT:  Fixed year for Charles Woodson.

The last time Revis was a pro-bowler, he was 29 and he was released by the Chiefs after six games.

The examples you gave are some very, very, very rare outliers and those guys were known for being ageless wonders.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

8 hours ago, Maithanet said:

No, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson are better than Cousins.  They are not comparable.  There are about 4 guys who are more or less as good as Cousins, guys like Matt Stafford, Derek Carr and Philip Rivers.  They are comparable. 

I feel like you left out several QBs that are clearly better than Cousins, but that's the nature of these lists. They're subjective. For example, I think four of the top five Qbs, when healthy, are Rodgers, Luck, Newton and Wilson. I know most people will disagree with that list, but the reason I am so high on them is because I think they are the only four guys right now who could succeed anywhere, no matter the system, coaches and surrounding players. Maybe that's not the best way to approach ranking QBs, but I think they provide the most value (Brady is the fifth guy in case anyone is wondering). I also don't think Cousins is in the same tier as Stafford, Rivers, Ryan and Watson (albeit small sample size) to name a few guys. Carr is a good comparison though. The analyst I used to trust most (before he got fired) was Cian Fahey, and he did a deep dive on these two and said they were basically the same guy. Great stats, but a lot of mechanical flaws and bad tendencies that will make it difficult for them to be consistent top 10 QBs. He was pretty down on both of them.

Quote

Once again, the $18 million price point for a starter doesn't exist.  Alex Smith just got $23.5 million a year for the next 4 years, and he's worse than Cousins and past his prime.  Case Keenum will get $20 million/year this offseason (probably from Denver). 

You're right, but it should exist. Teams that overpay their QBs tend to fail to win championships. That's why winning with guys on their rookie contracts is the way to go.

Quote

Ok, name these 8 or so guys who are comparable to Cousins in this 10-20 range.  Because i'm pretty confident they are going to fall dramatically short of Cousins in one of two really important ways:  Availability/health and consistency season to season.  Cousins has both. 

Well you got me there. The point is the QBs who fall into that range can easily move around within it.Right now Cousins is on the higher end of it, but he could easily have a bad year next season and go from 12th best to 18th best. That's the point I'm trying to make.

Quote

Honestly I never heard Keenum discussed for MVP this year, so your comment really comes from left field for me.  The MVP contenders this year were Wentz , Brady and Gurley. 

He was never going to win it, but I regularly heard him being mentioned as the 5th guy on list, so to speak.

Quote

There's been a lot of finger pointing like "I wanted to sign Cousins, but THAT guy said it wasn't worth it."  Nobody has gone on record to say they actually objected to making Cousins a serious offer after the 2015 or the 2016 seasons.  Everybody knows they screwed up, this organization is totally dysfunctional.

Hmm, interesting to know.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Iskaral Pust said:

I don't think Wilson is quite at the level of those three in a conventional offense, but I doubt any of them would have succeeded with the OL, receiving unit and run support that Wilson has seen in recent years.  When you put Wilson in an offense that suits his ability, then he moves into the top tier.  Definitely a step below Rodgers, but in that top tier.  Similarly, Brady is only really great in an offense that suits his ability.  There are plenty of systems where his production would drop.

This.

Same goes for Brees. Brady and Brees are obviously all time greats, but currently they need specific systems to make them still look really good. They'd both probably struggle if they were in Seattle or Green Bay. 

[Rhom]

Holy Shit!  Three lanterns!

The Browns have traded a third rounder for Tyrod Taylor... because of course the Browns did.

[briantw]

13 minutes ago, Rhom said:

Holy Shit!  Three lanterns!

The Browns have traded a third rounder for Tyrod Taylor... because of course the Browns did.

Actually doesn't seem like a bad move considering they still have five picks in the first two rounds.  Now they can draft a QB high without pressuring him to step in and start on day one, and instead can do what the Chiefs did last year.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

6 minutes ago, briantw said:

Actually doesn't seem like a bad move considering they still have five picks in the first two rounds.  Now they can draft a QB high without pressuring him to step in and start on day one, and instead can do what the Chiefs did last year.

It also signals they're probably taking Barkley first, and they don't even have to use the fourth pick on a QB.They can grab someone like Chubb and pair him with Garrett. That could turn into a frightening pair of pass rushers. 

[briantw]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

It also signals they're probably taking Barkley first, and they don't even have to use the fourth pick on a QB.They can grab someone like Chubb and pair him with Garrett. That could turn into a frightening pair of pass rushers. 

I'd still be shocked if one of those first two picks they have isn't used on a QB.  

[Jace, Extat]

10 minutes ago, briantw said:

I'd still be shocked if one of those first two picks they have isn't used on a QB.  

We've said that for 2 years.