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What if timeline: Renly and Robb


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King's Landing gets sacked by Renly. The Lannisters in KL are captured. With Balon, Robb and Renly attacking him, Tywin would have to surrender. Stannis would become LP of the Stormlands. Sometime in the future, there is a mega war with Renly,Stannis and Mace on one side and Robb,Edmure and Balon on the other( don't know which side Tywin,Robert Arryn and Doran would take. Tywin has hostages on both sides of the war while Lysa is too frightful and Doran is busy in his Fire and Blood thing)

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KL gets sacked by Stannis and he either captures or kills all the Lannisters in the Redkeep and is left with a tough decision to either defend or retreat from the capital since Renlys forces are on the way. Tywin losing all hope of keeping KL under Lannister control retreats to the Westerlands and allows the remaining houses to fight over the thrown and bend the knee to the victor at the end. With Cersie, and at the very least Joffrey dead and the Lannisters losing the Iron Throne I think Robb demands an public apology from Tywin and some gold as reperations for the loss of the Ned and forms a strong line of defense on the Riverland/Reach boarder and SL boarder and plays a defensive war where he allows the Iron Born to reave the Reach and even support them by building ships to help replenish the ships the Iron Born lose. Renly sues for peace because Robb is in way to strong a position to bend the knee maybe an arrangment can be reached between these two young kings maybe not. 

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Well if we assume that Renly doesn’t get assassinated, it means that Melisandre can’t exist. So we would have to try and figure out what Stannis would have done without her. Sure, he’s still got the Royal Fleet, but only five thousand men besides that. Stannis might decide to attack King’s Landing with his small force, if he was an idiot, or more likely he would sit and wait to see what would happen. Meanwhile Renly would starve out King’s Landing and slowly roll his army north. Balon siding with Robb is a huge stretch, but what the hell. He attacks the Westerlands, which means Tywin has to decide to either dig in at Harrenhal, retreat west, or retreat south. Either way, he’s on the losing side. Catelyn either makes a deal with Renly or she doesn’t. Robb will have the Riverlands and the Ironborn, the Boltons have no chance to destroy Winterfell, and Ramsay is a prisoner (assuming the Hornwood issue happens the same way).

Tywin would either stay and fight Robb and his allies, or he marches down to fight Renly, but either way, the Lannisters are defeated and their lands overrun and raided by Robb. Casterly Rock endures, but likely that the main Lannister branch are either prisoners or killed. Renly becomes king and either he makes war on Robb or he doesn’t, though he likely ends up as king as long as he isn’t killed. Robb marries a Frey and goes north when the fighting is done, unless he’s killed.

Stannis meanwhile either strikes somewhere, or he’s left alone on Dragonstone, but if Renly lives, there’s no happy ending for Stannis.

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I am going to assume that Renly doesn't get assassinated because he and Stanis reach an agreement and Stanis supports Renly's claim. 

In that situation, Renly marches his forces onto KL while Stannis controls the harbor with a blockade.  Renly is cautious and has no reason to try to take the city immediately because he is able to divert some of his forces to watch the West for Tywin.  So he sends terms to KL, digs in and watches his back in case Tywin tries to save the city which he won't, because he now has to contend with Balon attacking Lannisport and Robb heading towards the Rock. 

There is no sack of Winterfell, so Bran and Rickon are safe and therefore Jamie still rots in a dungeon in Riverrun and  the Freys and Boltons stay loyal to Robb.

The only real questions are: whether Tywin sues for peace before Casterly Rock and Lannisport are attacked and whether Kings Landing is taken by force or if Cersie decides to surrender.  My guess is Tywin is never able to get his army back in time and is caught in the Riverlands between Renly's forces in the East and Robb in the West, and KL riots and  Cersie is betrayed during a siege.

 

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  • 1 month later...
On 2/11/2018 at 5:32 AM, The South Forgets said:

King's Landing gets sacked by Renly. The Lannisters in KL are captured. With Balon, Robb and Renly attacking him, Tywin would have to surrender. Stannis would become LP of the Stormlands. Sometime in the future, there is a mega war with Renly,Stannis and Mace on one side and Robb,Edmure and Balon on the other( don't know which side Tywin,Robert Arryn and Doran would take. Tywin has hostages on both sides of the war while Lysa is too frightful and Doran is busy in his Fire and Blood thing)

Renly never makes it to KL as he gets gay married to Loras and they move to Tyrosh 

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On 2/11/2018 at 7:23 AM, Stormking902 said:

KL gets sacked by Stannis and he either captures or kills all the Lannisters in the Redkeep and is left with a tough decision to either defend or retreat from the capital since Renlys forces are on the way. Tywin losing all hope of keeping KL under Lannister control retreats to the Westerlands and allows the remaining houses to fight over the thrown and bend the knee to the victor at the end. With Cersie, and at the very least Joffrey dead and the Lannisters losing the Iron Throne I think Robb demands an public apology from Tywin and some gold as reperations for the loss of the Ned and forms a strong line of defense on the Riverland/Reach boarder and SL boarder and plays a defensive war where he allows the Iron Born to reave the Reach and even support them by building ships to help replenish the ships the Iron Born lose. Renly sues for peace because Robb is in way to strong a position to bend the knee maybe an arrangment can be reached between these two young kings maybe not. 

Stannis gets killed by renly 

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6 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

So what happens to Sansa in all of this? Does Ser Ilyn kill the ladies at court when Renly comes to call?

It really depends on how King's Landing falls. If Stannis attacks with everything he has in a forlorn hope to gain the throne, likely Cersei does have Sansa and anyone else important killed. If Renly begins a slow and methodical siege that probably takes him months to even cross the Blackwater, much less surround the city, I could actually see Tyrion coming to some sort of arrangement with Renly to surrender the city in exchange for their lives.

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On 2/13/2018 at 0:42 AM, Chris Mormont said:

What would be the cause of this "mega war"?

 

The independence of the North,Riverlands and Iron Islands from the Iron Throne. Robb is KitN and the Riverlands have sworn fealty to him. Balon has declared himself Iron King. Although maybe Renly would give a Dornish deal to both of them. Or they could negotiate peace. Renly would give Stannis the Stormlands if he became the king. The Reach and the Stormlands together can raise 100k men which would be enough to defeat Robb and Balon. Although there would be the problem of feeding them anywhere outside the Reach. And if Lysa( or Harry, which would be more likely) joins them or Theon gains the West, all bets are off

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