Heresy 205 bats and little green men

[JNR]

3 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

we've been told the Watch's numbers have been dwindling for 10,000 years

Where in canon does it say this?

[Matthew.]

23 minutes ago, PrettyPig said:

Yes, absolutely.   And recall that the HotU is long, low, and windowless, and the face in the Black Gate is blind.    Also the ebony and weirwood doors, the glowing gate in the darkness of the well - black and white, darkness and moonlight.   The Others only come out at night when the sun is gone; the Undying are sealed away in a dark chamber, a "murky gloom" that Dany can barely see in.   The theme here is darkness, and living in a place where seeing with physical eyes is not necessary.   

I'm also reminded of Tobho Mott's establishment on the Street of Steel, and the black and white doors of the entrance.   Tobho Mott is Qohorik,  - Qohor is the "City of Sorcerers", and are the only smiths knowledgeable in working Valyrian steel...the secret said to be an infusion of blood.   So we have darkness balanced out by a "milky" light, black/white, sorcery, and various things that seem to feed on blood.   This is not coincidence.

As just a brief to the ebony/weirwood contrast, that theme is repeated again at the House of Black and White.

And, speaking of that 'ebony' wood that we often see going hand-in-hand with weirwood:

Quote

Long and low, without towers or windows, it coiled like a stone serpent through a grove of black-barked trees whose inky blue leaves made the stuff of the sorcerous drink the Qartheen called shade of the evening. 

Black barked trees with inky blue leaves, contrasted against the white/red of the weirwood; Dany's taste perception journey of the Shade of the Evening is also quite similar to Bran's experience eating the weirwood paste.

Edit:
Dany

Quote

Dany raised the glass to her lips. The first sip tasted like ink and spoiled meat, foul, but when she swallowed it seemed to come to life within her. She could feel tendrils spreading through her chest, like fingers of fire coiling around her heart, and on her tongue was a taste like honey and anise and cream, like mother's milk and Drogo's seed, like red meat and hot blood and molten gold. It was all the tastes she had ever known, and none of them . . . and then the glass was empty.

Bran

Quote

It had a bitter taste, though not so bitter as acorn paste. The first spoonful was the hardest to get down. He almost retched it right back up. The second tasted better. The third was almost sweet. The rest he spooned up eagerly. Why had he thought that it was bitter? It tasted of honey, of new-fallen snow, of pepper and cinnamon and the last kiss his mother ever gave him. The empty bowl slipped from his fingers and clattered on the cavern floor. "I don't feel any different. What happens next?"

 

[Lady Dyanna]

3 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

Absolutely, the obvious examples are the Doom of Valyria and The Long Night.  My question would be whether the Children are/were misusing nature themselves, or whether they were allied with nature in its proper form.

I think that you could also add whatever it was that happened in Ashai at a time similar to that of the long night, whatever it is that happened at Hardhome, the Butterfly illness in Naath, and possibly the Pale Mare and other GI illnesses that seem to strike people that invade the neck. 

In my mind, at least, where I think the dividing line between what nature intends and going beyond that is when any type of sacrifice becomes involved involving either human blood or their soul/spirit. The use of sacrifice seems to be a way of almost supercharging the magic, of getting it to give more of a result than what should be possible in nature. So, I guess the question would be, when did the CotF start the practice of sacrifice in order to fuel their magic? Did they always do that or did the first men bring that idea with them?

3 hours ago, Matthew. said:

In particular, I disagree with Melisandre's point of view that everything can be summed up as a push and pull between Ice and Fire; I don't think Planetos is facing a doom of Ice vs. Fire, I think it's facing a doom of Ice and Fire--'nature' itself is broken, and Planetos exists in a state of disequilibrium, which, among other things, allows for supernatural abuses of the forces of nature.

  And, if the Reed’s oath truly has anything to do with it, it might be the Song of Earth and Water as well, at least to a lesser extent. We’ve seen magic using these sources being abused in our story as well. Yes, it’s more in the background, but I think that it’s there to help inform the reader in a bigger way, just exactly how these Magics all work. 

 

[Matthew.]

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

Magic is the two-sided blade without a hilt. Mankind used and abused it, and the Children tried using it as a weapon against these men, but now somebody has to close this Pandora's box.

Speaking of which, the re-awakening of magic - the return of the Others, all of the Stark gifts activating at the same time, Bran becoming a greenseer - all fits together rather cleanly with the outlier (IMO) being Dany and the dragons.

It's not that she can't fit with the rest of that picture, but is her only place in events as a force of opposition? 'Green' magic and 'ice' magic fit together through the Age of Heroes in Westeros, but Dany and the dragons (and ancient Azor Ahai) are seemingly these weird things happening in the east, that fit primarily because fire can combat ice.

This is something that I've personally found to be a problem in pursuing The Grand Unified Theory of Everything That Fits Together Satisfyingly and Cohesively, but I think we have some potential breadcrumbs: The Last Hero and his dragonsteel, House Dayne with their magic sword and violet eyes, and the usage of dragonglass by both the CotF and the Valyrians.

I suspect that fire magic is going to turn out to fit more closely with the events of the Age of Heroes than it superficially appears.

[PrettyPig]

16 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

As just a brief to the ebony/weirwood contrast, that theme is repeated again at the House of Black and White.

Indeed.  The HoBaw is also windowless, and sports the black and white doors with a carved moon face.   And isn't it interesting that the more important/more sacred the location (like where the faces are stored), the further underground it is?

Sounds a bit like the Stark crypts too, doesn't it?  The old Kings of Winter buried on the lowest levels?  

 

(Fun fact:   I am 100% convinced that GRRM based the HoBaW on the "Black House", the original Church of Satan founded by Anton Lavey.      Relevance to this discussion:  0.)

[Lady Dyanna]

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

The Rhoynar are also known for calling on Mother Rhoyne for help, and I'll need a refresher to remind myself how they were defeated

Dragons....

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

If the Forsaken chapter is anything to go by, we will learn a lot more about the Ironborn and their (frozen) Drowned God

I wonder... I’m not so sure that we will the way that chapter is written. Euron seems a lot more interested in BEING a god as opposed to offering allegiance to one. 

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

I wonder how long he served, and how many years passed before Good Queen Alysanne flew to the Wall? Was their assistance needed?

I would assume that he was long gone before Alysanne flew to the wall as it was another 48 years before Jaehaerys became King. It’s possible he was still around, but I would think highly unlikely. 

 

And while I'm at it, a piece of sparkly tin foil seems to have caught my attention. The Reeds swear by six different things in the oath that they make to the Starks.  Earth and Water, Bronze and Iron, Ice and Fire. I suspect that four of those, Earth, water, fire, and ice are items that can be manipulated to produce or fuel magic.  I think that bronze and iron are the things that can be used to block or protect from magic, specifically sacrificial magic, bronze against blood and iron against the manipulation of the soul/spirit. (Think about Cat’s description of Robb’s crown being metals that protect against the cold.) Ironborn is a rather strange name for a group mostly known as seafaring raiders, even if they do mine on the islands. Are the Ironborn called that because of some innate protection that they are born with? A resistance to manipulating their souls? 

 

[Brad Stark]

45 minutes ago, JNR said:

Where in canon does it say this?

It isn't all spelled out in one place.  From GOT we have:

Quote

 

Ned had his suspicions, but he did not give them voice. “For the joy of my company, surely,” he said lightly. “And there is the Wall. You need to see it, Your Grace, to walk along its battlements and talk to those who man it. The Night’s Watch is a shadow of what it once was. Benjen says—” “No doubt I will hear what your brother says soon enough,” Robert said. “The Wall has stood for what, eight thousand years? 

 

and:

Quote

“Stop it,” Jon Snow said, his face dark with anger. “The Night’s Watch is a noble calling!” Tyrion laughed. “You’re too smart to believe that. The Night’s Watch is a midden heap for all the misfits of the realm. I’ve seen you looking at Yoren and his boys. Those are your new brothers, Jon Snow, how do you like them? Sullen peasants, debtors, poachers, rapers, thieves, and bastards like you all wind up on the Wall, watching for grumkins and snarks and all the other monsters your wet nurse warned you about. The good part is there are no grumkins or snarks, so it’s scarcely dangerous work. 

and

Quote

“You can,” Mormont said bluntly. “Your sister sits beside the king. Your brother is a great knight, and your father the most powerful lord in the Seven Kingdoms. Speak to them for us. Tell them of our need here. You have seen for yourself, my lord. The Night’s Watch is dying. Our strength is less than a thousand now. Six hundred here, two hundred in the Shadow Tower , even fewer at Eastwatch, and a scant third of those fighting men. 

and

Quote

 When Aegon slew Black Harren and claimed his kingdom, Harren’s brother was Lord Commander on the Wall, with ten thousand swords to hand.

So Robert gives 8,000 years as the age of the Wall, but we've all seen different numbers, and it doesn't matter.  Cannon clearly implies the Wall and Watch supposedly stood for several thousands of years. 

We also have passages above to showing the Night's Watch is fewer than 1000 men, and not the finest and most able soldiers either, with the implication this is because no one believes what the Watch and Wall protect against are serious threats.  Contrast this with only 300 years ago, when Harren's brother commanded ten thousand with the implication those 10,000 would be a threat to Aegon and his dragons, and not just misfits, peasants, etc. 

If the timelines are to be believed, what happened in the most recent 300 years to change the seriousness of the Watch, when 300 years ago it was still thousands of years since the Long Night?  300 years ago, there was a much more real and immediate threat, and either that threat persisted for thousands of years, or those thousands of years were made up and never happened.

[Lady Dyanna]

49 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

And, speaking of that 'ebony' wood that we often see going hand-in-hand with weirwood:

Black barked trees with inky blue leaves, contrasted against the white/red of the weirwood; Dany's taste perception journey of the Shade of the Evening is also quite similar to Bran's experience eating the weirwood paste.

Hmm. Also of interest, at least to me, is that as similar as they are, Dany thinks of things like tendrils of fire and hot blood, while Bran thinks of new fallen snow. 

[Melifeather]

12 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Speaking of which, the re-awakening of magic - the return of the Others, all of the Stark gifts activating at the same time, Bran becoming a greenseer - all fits together rather cleanly with the outlier (IMO) being Dany and the dragons.

It's not that she can't fit with the rest of that picture, but is her only place in events as a force of opposition? 'Green' magic and 'ice' magic fit together through the Age of Heroes in Westeros, but Dany and the dragons (and ancient Azor Ahai) are seemingly these weird things happening in the east, that fit primarily because fire can combat ice.

This is something that I've personally found to be a problem in pursuing The Grand Unified Theory of Everything That Fits Together Satisfyingly and Cohesively, but I think we have some potential breadcrumbs: The Last Hero and his dragonsteel, House Dayne with their magic sword and violet eyes, and the usage of dragonglass by both the CotF and the Valyrians.

I suspect that fire magic is going to turn out to fit more closely with the events of the Age of Heroes than it superficially appears.

 

This isn't really a response to your post, but it caused me to think that it's tempting to connect the Starks to ice magic, but I think that may be a mistake. Just because they were once Kings of Winter doesn't necessarily mean that they used ice magic. On the contrary, I think they helped defeat ice magic and were installed as guardians. 

"Winter is Coming" is open to interpretation, but it could be a reminder to stay vigil, and "Winterfell" named in honor of the defeat of the white-walker-creating Ironborn. "Winter fell" is not a new idea, but I think it makes the most sense.

Morbid thought, maybe the dead in the crypts - their Kings of Winter - were skinchanged by the Starks and armed with iron and used as soldiers against the white walkers? 

Maybe it is all a an ouroboros and fire follows ice follows fire follows ice?

[Matthew.]

1 hour ago, Lady Dyanna said:

And, if the Reed’s oath truly has anything to do with it, it might be the Song of Earth and Water as well, at least to a lesser extent. We’ve seen magic using these sources being abused in our story as well. Yes, it’s more in the background, but I think that it’s there to help inform the reader in a bigger way, just exactly how these Magics all work. 

Agreed, and the Reed's oath has played a big role in a premise I'm contemplating, especially in relation to this:
 

Quote

"There they forged the Pact. The First Men were given the coastlands, the high plains and bright meadows, the mountains and bogs, but the deep woods were to remain forever the children's, and no more weirwoods were to be put to the axe anywhere in the realm. So the gods might bear witness to the signing, every tree on the island was given a face, and afterward, the sacred order of green men was formed to keep watch over the Isle of Faces.

This is just gut intuition, but the idea of every tree on the island being given a face is the sort of thing that doesn't seem especially notable when it's raised in aGoT, but as the narrative goes on, certain things - most Godswoods only having one face, contrasted against the grove north of the Wall being noteworthy to Jon for having several faces, and the stuff in ADWD with blood sacrifice to the weirwood - move me increasingly toward the point of view that the addition of a new 'face' was once an extraordinarily important act, and came coupled with blood sacrifice and magical consequence. 

I don't think this is merely describing a verbal agreement that the CotF hoped men would honor, capped off with a bit of wood carving, nor do I think men's only incentive to stick to the Pact was the threat of war with the CotF--the latter facing a serious (IMO) long-term attrition problem, especially with their greenseers.

In other words, I don't think men broke the Pact, and the CotF worked some dire magical ritual (eg, the Long Night) in response--I think the Pact is the dire magical ritual, its participants magically binding themselves to its terms by speaking the words of the Reeds' oath in the eyes of the gods; if men abide by the Pact they acquire the sorcery of the CotF (which has its own unintended consequences), and if they violate it, they do not face the wrath of the CotF, they face the wrath of the gods/nature.

Edit: For clarity, I specifically believe that the "heroes and chiefs of men" - who probably went on to establish the first human godswoods and kingdoms - that were present on the Isle are the ones bound to the Pact, with it extending to their bloodlines and sworn vassals; humans who have sworn nothing to the weirwood are not bound.

[Melifeather]

13 minutes ago, Lady Dyanna said:

Dragons....

I wonder... I’m not so sure that we will the way that chapter is written. Euron seems a lot more interested in BEING a god as opposed to offering allegiance to one. 

I would assume that he was long gone before Alysanne flew to the wall as it was another 48 years before Jaehaerys became King. It’s possible he was still around, but I would think highly unlikely. 

 

And while I'm at it, a piece of sparkly tin foil seems to have caught my attention. The Reeds swear by six different things in the oath that they make to the Starks.  Earth and Water, Bronze and Iron, Ice and Fire. I suspect that four of those, Earth, water, fire, and ice are items that can be manipulated to produce or fuel magic.  I think that bronze and iron are the things that can be used to block or protect from magic, specifically sacrificial magic, bronze against blood and iron against the manipulation of the soul/spirit. (Think about Cat’s description of Robb’s crown being metals that protect against the cold.) Ironborn is a rather strange name for a group mostly known as seafaring raiders, even if they do mine on the islands. Are the Ironborn called that because of some innate protection that they are born with? A resistance to manipulating their souls? 

 

Yes, I agree Euron is interested in being a god following in Harren the Black's footsteps and executing the competition. 

[Melifeather]

28 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

It isn't all spelled out in one place.  From GOT we have:

and:

and

and

So Robert gives 8,000 years as the age of the Wall, but we've all seen different numbers, and it doesn't matter.  Cannon clearly implies the Wall and Watch supposedly stood for several thousands of years. 

We also have passages above to showing the Night's Watch is fewer than 1000 men, and not the finest and most able soldiers either, with the implication this is because no one believes what the Watch and Wall protect against are serious threats.  Contrast this with only 300 years ago, when Harren's brother commanded ten thousand with the implication those 10,000 would be a threat to Aegon and his dragons, and not just misfits, peasants, etc. 

If the timelines are to be believed, what happened in the most recent 300 years to change the seriousness of the Watch, when 300 years ago it was still thousands of years since the Long Night?  300 years ago, there was a much more real and immediate threat, and either that threat persisted for thousands of years, or those thousands of years were made up and never happened.

That is a good question! What happened during the last 300 years for 10,000 men to decline to 1,000? One idea - the infiltration of the Targaryen family by the Faith. Is it possible there was a secret campaign to reduce the strength of the Nights Watch and undermine the quality by only sending criminals and misfits? Why would they do that? Did the Faith think the Watch was a threat?

[Lady Dyanna]

14 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Agreed, and the Reed's oath has played a big role in a premise I'm contemplating, especially in relation to this:
 

This is just gut intuition, but the idea of every tree on the island being given a face is the sort of thing that doesn't seem especially notable when it's raised in aGoT, but as the narrative goes on, certain things - most Godswoods only having one face, contrasted against the grove north of the Wall being noteworthy to Jon for having several faces, and the stuff in ADWD with blood sacrifice to the weirwood - move me increasingly toward the point of view that the addition of a new 'face' was once an extraordinarily important act, and came coupled with blood sacrifice and magical consequence. 

I don't think this is merely describing a verbal agreement that the CotF hoped men would honor, capped off with a bit of wood carving, nor do I think men's only incentive to stick to the Pact was the threat of war with the CotF--the latter facing a serious (IMO) long-term attrition problem, especially with their greenseers.

In other words, I don't think men broke the Pact, and the CotF worked some dire magical ritual (eg, the Long Night) in response--I think the Pact is the dire magical ritual, its participants magically binding themselves to its terms by speaking the words of the Reeds' oath in the eyes of the gods; if men abide by the Pact they acquire the sorcery of the CotF (which has its own unintended consequences), and if they violate it, they do not face the wrath of the CotF, they face the wrath of the gods/nature.

This makes a great deal of sense to me. I was coming at it from a bit of a different perspective, but it basically amounts to the same thing, only you’ve added another layer onto it. I never considered that this was where it all began  

After hearing this, I think this is exactly what happened as far as the God’s Eye. Large amounts of sacrifice bound the humans to the tree creating the faces. And I think that the pact was most definitely broken. But I also suspect that the negative consequences might not have been immediately present. I’ve long suspected that when a Weirwood tree is killed that it releases the soul of anyone that might have been joined to it. It might be completely cracked, but I think that those spirits animate the ww. It’s the body that they are able to construct for themselves out of the atmosphere. The people that broke the pact realized that, in a way, doing this was a path to immortality. After a while, I suspect that they might have been doing it intentionally. 

1. Blood sacrifice to become a skinchanger. 

2. Commit abominations to amass power to become a greenseer. 

3. Join with the tree. 

4. Kill the tree and become immortal. 

Unfortunately magic is nothing but the manipulation of energy. And energy follows the rules of Physics. 

[JNR]

57 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

We also have passages above to showing the Night's Watch is fewer than 1000 men, and not the finest and most able soldiers either, with the implication this is because no one believes what the Watch and Wall protect against are serious threats.  Contrast this with only 300 years ago, when Harren's brother commanded ten thousand

Sure, this shows the Watch has seriously declined in the last 300 years.  

But I don't think it can be shown the Watch has been declining for 33x as long as that (10,000 years)... or even that it existed in any sense that long ago.  

Here's as close as we can get, I think.  We have been told that once, up to seventeen of the castles were in use simultaneously.  Well, that sure sounds like a huge force, but we don't know when that was, or how the Watch has weakened or strengthened since then.  It could have been ups and downs as opposed to a constant decline.

We know after all that the Watch was still using the Nightfort as recently as 200 years ago, which is quite recent compared to the Nightfort's apparent age.

25 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

What happened during the last 300 years for 10,000 men to decline to 1,000?

Yes, this is a good question.

[LynnS]

4 hours ago, JNR said:

Sure, this shows the Watch has seriously declined in the last 300 years.  

But I don't think it can be shown the Watch has been declining for 33x as long as that (10,000 years)... or even that it existed in any sense that long ago.  

Here's as close as we can get, I think.  We have been told that once, up to seventeen of the castles were in use simultaneously.  Well, that sure sounds like a huge force, but we don't know when that was, or how the Watch has weakened or strengthened since then.  It could have been ups and downs as opposed to a constant decline.

We know after all that the Watch was still using the Nightfort as recently as 200 years ago, which is quite recent compared to the Nightfort's apparent age.

Yes, this is a good question.

There must have been very little, if any additional men sent to the NW over 300 years and the force of 10,000 died out. I wonder if Harren was keeping the Watch supplied.  Harrenhal seems to have been the seat of power for all of Westeros before Aegon showed up.  How do the Starks fit into the picture?

[SirArthur]

4 hours ago, JNR said:

Yes, this is a good question.

I don't know. We have the bridge of skulls, the ruined tower in the Gift, the abandoned castles. All indicating that once there was a lot of activity. What strikes me as rather odd is the New Gift. If the Watch was already in need of men, why increase their territory ? Was it an attempt to repopulate the Wall ? And the prisoners are just a last attempt to keep the Wall occupied as a penal colony ? 

Why is an area depopulated ? The climate gets harsher ? The harvest declines ? What we know of is the Doom of Valyria that could have resulted in something similar to our Little Ice Age.  The long night is the logical conclusion for an ever increasing cold period. But what is the cause ? 

 

1 hour ago, LynnS said:

There must have been very little, if any additional men sent to the NW over 300 years and the force of 10,000 died out. I wonder if Harren was keepting the Watch supplied.

With men ? Possible. i mean it's a nice dumping ground for prisoners from all the raids.  

[LynnS]

30 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

With men ? Possible. i mean it's a nice dumping ground for prisoners from all the raids.  

Yes and provender.  I've wondered about the dungeon Bran describes at the Night Fort:

Quote

A Storm of Swords - Bran IV

They spent half the day poking through the castle. Some of the towers had fallen down and others looked unsafe, but they climbed the bell tower (the bells were gone) and the rookery (the birds were gone). Beneath the brewhouse they found a vault of huge oaken casks that boomed hollowly when Hodor knocked on them. They found a library (the shelves and bins had collapsed, the books were gone, and rats were everywhere). They found a dank and dim-lit dungeon with cells enough to hold five hundred captives, but when Bran grabbed hold of one of the rusted bars it broke off in his hand. Only one crumbling wall remained of the great hall, the bathhouse seemed to be sinking into the ground, and a huge thornbush had conquered the practice yard outside the armory where black brothers had once labored with spear and shield and sword. The armory and the forge still stood, however, though cobwebs, rats, and dust had taken the places of blades, bellows, and anvil. Sometimes Summer would hear sounds that Bran seemed deaf to, or bare his teeth at nothing, the fur on the back of his neck bristling . . . but the Rat Cook never put in an appearance, nor the seventy-nine sentinels, nor Mad Axe. Bran was much relieved. Maybe it is only a ruined empty castle.

 

I suppose the dungeons could have held wildlings.  What were the Starks doing during this time and what was their relationship to the NW?  Were the Starks beholden to Aegon for removing Harren?

[SirArthur]

Quote

 

A Storm of Swords - Bran IV

They spent half the day poking through the castle. Some of the towers had fallen down and others looked unsafe, but they climbed the bell tower (the bells were gone) and the rookery (the birds were gone). Beneath the brewhouse they found a vault of huge oaken casks that boomed hollowly when Hodor knocked on them. They found a library (the shelves and bins had collapsed, the books were gone, and rats were everywhere). They found a dank and dim-lit dungeon with cells enough to hold five hundred captives, but when Bran grabbed hold of one of the rusted bars it broke off in his hand. Only one crumbling wall remained of the great hall, the bathhouse seemed to be sinking into the ground, and a huge thornbush had conquered the practice yard outside the armory where black brothers had once labored with spear and shield and sword. The armory and the forge still stood, however, though cobwebs, rats, and dust had taken the places of blades, bellows, and anvil. Sometimes Summer would hear sounds that Bran seemed deaf to, or bare his teeth at nothing, the fur on the back of his neck bristling . . . but the Rat Cook never put in an appearance, nor the seventy-nine sentinels, nor Mad Axe. Bran was much relieved. Maybe it is only a ruined empty castle.

 

Hounds can hear the echolocation from bats. 

[Brad Stark]

9 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

That is a good question! What happened during the last 300 years for 10,000 men to decline to 1,000? One idea - the infiltration of the Targaryen family by the Faith. Is it possible there was a secret campaign to reduce the strength of the Nights Watch and undermine the quality by only sending criminals and misfits? Why would they do that? Did the Faith think the Watch was a threat?

 

9 hours ago, JNR said:

Sure, this shows the Watch has seriously declined in the last 300 years.  

But I don't think it can be shown the Watch has been declining for 33x as long as that (10,000 years)... or even that it existed in any sense that long ago.  

Here's as close as we can get, I think.  We have been told that once, up to seventeen of the castles were in use simultaneously.  Well, that sure sounds like a huge force, but we don't know when that was, or how the Watch has weakened or strengthened since then.  It could have been ups and downs as opposed to a constant decline.

We know after all that the Watch was still using the Nightfort as recently as 200 years ago, which is quite recent compared to the Nightfort's apparent age.

Yes, this is a good question.

The watch has declined because most people see it the way Tyrion does - a useless job to get rid of criminals and misfits.  We see this all the time in our own world - Hurricane defense in New Orleans, buildings that won't withstand Earthquakes built where we know there will be one, houses built where we know mudslides or forest fires will destroy them.  People don't take threats seriously unless they are an immediate threat.  But everything in the story suggests people believe the Watch is not guarding against something that might happen in a generation, but something that either might never happen again, or maybe never happened at all.  There is no way Harren's brother could have had 10,000 fighting men to defend the Wall if we believe people took the threat with as little seriousness in his lifetime.

[SirArthur]

16 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

There is no way Harren's brother could have had 10,000 fighting men to defend the Wall if we believe people took the threat with as little seriousness in his lifetime.

It is incredible hard to supply 10.000 fighting men far in the North. Even when we take the Night's Watch split into builders, stewards and rangers into account. A standing army of 3000 ranger is still incredible ressource heavy.