Heresy 205 bats and little green men

[Black Crow]

3 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

Other than the text saying Harren's brother had 10,000 men do we have anything to suggest more men were sent to the Wall before the conquest?

Yes, as I said, there are the stories of the Kings being sent there - and in golden chains as I recall

[Black Crow]

7 hours ago, Matthew. said:

I suspect you're probably right about the Starks. To use the Storm Kings as an example, they are not associated with wielding storms, they are associated with defying them: Storm's End stands against the assaults of nature, and is also warded against beings of magic; shadows, white walkers, and (IMO) Green Men.

At the least, the Starks appear to have actively feared and warded their own crypts. It's a shame that the WB is the only source for the title "Brandon the Breaker, " as I think there's a lot of potential there. Rather than the Night's King breaking his oaths and the Stark in Winterfell dealing with him, perhaps the situation was just the opposite: the Stark in Winterfell is the Oathbreaker, the NK the Oathkeeper, and the NK only started amassing an army in the first place because Brandon the Breaker broke the Pact. 

As it happens I don't recall any mention of the Nights King amassing an army, but broadly that's how I see it.

As you say, however, there's a lot of potential in here for the histories being mince. The Andal takeover is a classic tale of killing or marrying the ruling families rather than conquering the population at large, and its also tied in with the breaking of the Pact and the massacre of the tree-huggers, which may have been a reaction to their demands for human sacrifice. The Starks, we're told, held the Andals at bay, yet we're also told of how their grip on the North was accomplished by the conquest, amongst others of the Warg King and his inhuman allies, the tree-huggers. We also know that the Wall was manned in the early days by thousands of prisoners from the wars down south. While there's evidence enough in the text for this Brad Stark rightly draws attention to the practical implications. Was this because the Starks, the Storm Kings and the Andal kings were all engaged in the same struggle? This would also, of course explain why the Children of the Forest fleeing the Andal pogroms found no refuge in the North but fled beyond the Wall.

[Brad Stark]

3 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Yes, as I said, there are the stories of the Kings being sent there - and in golden chains as I recall

 

According to the World book:

Quote

No fewer than six conquered kings were sent to the Wall in golden fetters by Nymeria and her prince

I never said no one was sent to the Wall before Aegon, lots of men were sent both before and after.  Pax Targaryena gave us the War of the Conquest, the Dance of Dragons, the War against Dorne, the Blackfire Rebellions, Roberts Rebellion and countless smaller wars and battles in between.  What I said is there is no evidence more men were sent before than after.

[Brad Stark]

3 hours ago, Black Crow said:

As it happens I don't recall any mention of the Nights King amassing an army, but broadly that's how I see it.

As you say, however, there's a lot of potential in here for the histories being mince. The Andal takeover is a classic tale of killing or marrying the ruling families rather than conquering the population at large, and its also tied in with the breaking of the Pact and the massacre of the tree-huggers, which may have been a reaction to their demands for human sacrifice. The Starks, we're told, held the Andals at bay, yet we're also told of how their grip on the North was accomplished by the conquest, amongst others of the Warg King and his inhuman allies, the tree-huggers. We also know that the Wall was manned in the early days by thousands of prisoners from the wars down south. While there's evidence enough in the text for this Brad Stark rightly draws attention to the practical implications. Was this because the Starks, the Storm Kings and the Andal kings were all engaged in the same struggle? This would also, of course explain why the Children of the Forest fleeing the Andal pogroms found no refuge in the North but fled beyond the Wall.

I also believe the Children and wierwoods in the South were around far longer than we are lead to believe.  History was written by the Citadel, which wants not only to eradicate magic, but also want to hide the significance, power and existence of magic - and by the Septons, who want to promote the Faith of the Seven and the Andals.  The First Men only had oral stories and runes on rocks.  Both the Septons and Maesters had means, motive and opportunity to push the Children as far back in history as they could.

[Melifeather]

We've discussed in the past how the Neck was likely the site of the first Wall. All that is left are remnants that look like evidence, and a whole lotta watery bogs. IMO the Trident itself is a demarcation line - another hinge just like the Wall and residual fire magic still exists there. Thoros of Myr said he's given the good god's own kiss before when people have died without a resurrection, but Lord Beric died in the Riverlands, so when Thoros gave him the kiss of life he rose.

“I have no magic, child. Only prayers. That first time, his lordship had a hole right through him and blood in his mouth, I knew there was no hope. So when his poor torn chest stopped moving, I gave him the good god’s own kiss to send him on his way. I filled my mouth with fire and breathed the flames inside him, down his throat to lungs and heart and soul. The last kiss it is called, and many a time I saw the old priests bestow it on the Lord’s servants as they died. I had given it a time or two myself, as all priests must. But never before had I felt a dead man shudder as the fire filled him, nor seen his eyes come open. It was not me who raised him, my lady. It was the Lord. R’hllor is not done with him yet. Life is warmth, and warmth is fire, and fire is God’s and God’s alone.”

 

That wasn't the whole story though, because there was more. Harwin explains to Arya:

…Lord Beric was gravely wounded. Thoros drew a foot of lance from his chest that night, and poured boiling wine into the hole it left. “Every man of us was certain his lordship would be dead by daybreak. But Thoros prayed with him all night beside the fire, and when dawn came, he was still alive, and stronger than he’d been. It was a fortnight before he could mount a horse, but his courage kept us strong.

 

Edited to add: the following comment is actually evidence for a different theory having to do with the wheel of time where I posited that the detachment Aerys sent out to deal with the Kingswood Brotherhood also turned into outlaws.

 

The Brotherhood Without Banners noticed other changes. They were sent to deal with outlaws and then they became the outlaws:

“By then the fighting had passed by us. The Mountain’s men were only the van of Lord Tywin’s host. They crossed the Red Fork in strength and swept up into the riverlands, burning everything in their path. We were so few that all we could do was harry their rear, but we told each other that we’d join up with King Robert when he marched west to crush Lord Tywin’s rebellion. Only then we heard that Robert was dead, and Lord Eddard as well, and Cersei Lannister’s whelp had ascended the Iron Throne. 

“That turned the whole world on its head. We’d been sent out by the King’s Hand to deal with outlaws, you see, but now we were the outlaws, and Lord Tywin was the Hand of the King. There was some wanted to yield then, but Lord Beric wouldn’t hear of it. We were still king’s men, he said, and these were the king’s people the lions were savaging. If we could not fight for Robert, we would fight for them, until every man of us was dead. And so we did, but as we fought something queer happened. For every man we lost, two showed up to take his place. A few were knights or squires, of gentle birth, but most were common men— men— fieldhands and fiddlers and innkeeps, servants and shoemakers, even two septons. Men of all sorts, and women too, children, dogs . . .”

 

[JNR]

5 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

What I said is there is no evidence more men were sent before than after.

Quote

Tell them of our need here. You have seen for yourself, my lord. The Night's Watch is dying.

I think LC Mormont knows what he's talking about.  

Given a 90% headcount decline in only 300 years... and without any reason to suppose the death rate exploded in that time (such as a pandemic)... there really is no other explanation but that fewer men are being sent.

5 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

I also believe the Children and wierwoods in the South were around far longer than we are lead to believe.

If by "South" you mean "south of the Wall," that's certainly possible.  The canon actually never says when the CotF completely relocated beyond the Wall.  

It could have taken thousands of years after the Andal invasion for all we know; the CotF could have found some form of haven in the North below the Wall for many centuries.  We just don't know.

[SirArthur]

1 hour ago, JNR said:

I think LC Mormont knows what he's talking about.  

Given a 90% headcount decline in only 300 years... and without any reason to suppose the death rate exploded in that time (such as a pandemic)... there really is no other explanation but that fewer men are being sent.

Well there is that quote of a Hightower burning woman and children in the harbor of Oldtown because of a plague. Let me search it. 

*snip*

"Ser Jaime, I have seen terrible things in my time," the old man said. "Wars, battles, murders most foul . . . I was a boy in Oldtown when the grey plague took half the city and three-quarters of the Citadel. Lord Hightower burned every ship in port, closed the gates, and commanded his guards to slay all those who tried to flee, be they men, women, or babes in arms. They killed him when the plague had run its course. On the very day he reopened the port, they dragged him from his horse and slit his throat, and his young son's as well. To this day the ignorant in Oldtown will spit at the sound of his name, but Quenton Hightower did what was needed. Your father was that sort of man as well. A man who did what was needed."

Jaime I - AFFC

[Melifeather]

1 hour ago, JNR said:

I think LC Mormont knows what he's talking about.  

Given a 90% headcount decline in only 300 years... and without any reason to suppose the death rate exploded in that time (such as a pandemic)... there really is no other explanation but that fewer men are being sent.

If by "South" you mean "south of the Wall," that's certainly possible.  The canon actually never says when the CotF completely relocated beyond the Wall.  

It could have taken thousands of years after the Andal invasion for all we know; the CotF could have found some form of haven in the North below the Wall for many centuries.  We just don't know.

 

We've debated here on Heresy before about that statement that the "Children fled beyond the Wall" seems like a contradiction of the Pact. They should have been able to remain in the Riverlands, right? So it makes sense that they fled when Harren the Black constructed Harrenhal.

[Black Crow]

33 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

 

We've debated here on Heresy before about that statement that the "Children fled beyond the Wall" seems like a contradiction of the Pact. They should have been able to remain in the Riverlands, right? So it makes sense that they fled when Harren the Black constructed Harrenhal.

More to the point they ought to have found a refuge with the Stark kingdom in the North if they were so "right" with the Old Gods as they at first appear, but they didn't and instead I'm inclined to read the Nights King story rather more broadly; that the Starks were once "right" with the Old Gods but at some point revolted and broke the Pact, not only overthrowing the Nights King and bringing Andal soldiers north to hold the Wall, but locking their dead in the crypts with cold iron.

The Boltons on the other hand have retained their old allegiances and their behaviour gives us a possible insight as to why the Nights King was overthrown and the Pact broken.

[SirArthur]

Non of this explains why the Wildlings flee south from north of the Wall. 

[JNR]

1 hour ago, SirArthur said:

Well there is that quote of a Hightower burning woman and children in the harbor of Oldtown because of a plague.

That's true, and there are similar references in D&E.  I'm just not sure it decimated the Watch, which is literally at the other end of the continent, though of course it might have via incoming men; I don't think we have any references that would be on point.

35 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

More to the point they ought to have found a refuge with the Stark kingdom in the North if they were so "right" with the Old Gods as they at first appear, but they didn't

How do you know?  It was thousands of years ago.  I don't think we can name the chronological point at which the CotF no longer lived south of the Wall.

What we have from canon seems quite ambiguous:

Quote

The Andals burnt out the weirwood groves, hacked down the faces, slaughtered the children where they found them, and everywhere proclaimed the triumph of the Seven over the old gods. So the children fled north—

And there Luwin stops his tale because Summer starts howling.  "North" doesn't necessarily mean "north of the Wall."

[Melifeather]

41 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

More to the point they ought to have found a refuge with the Stark kingdom in the North if they were so "right" with the Old Gods as they at first appear, but they didn't and instead I'm inclined to read the Nights King story rather more broadly; that the Starks were once "right" with the Old Gods but at some point revolted and broke the Pact, not only overthrowing the Nights King and bringing Andal soldiers north to hold the Wall, but locking their dead in the crypts with cold iron.

The Boltons on the other hand have retained their old allegiances and their behaviour gives us a possible insight as to why the Nights King was overthrown and the Pact broken.

Supposedly the Long Night happened thousands of years ago, but Harren the Black's actions took place around 300 years ago, and 300 years ago the Lord of Winterfell was Torrhen Stark who knelt to Aegon the Conqueror. Lately I have been of the mind that Torrhen's kneeling actually protected the small remnant of Children that had fled beyond the Wall. Aegon's burning of Harrenhal was punishment for Harren breaking the Pact. I haven't found any clues yet as to why Torrhen didn't stand up to Harren the Black before the dragons came though.

3 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

Non of this explains why the Wildlings flee south from north of the Wall. 

If my theory that the wildlings are ancestors of the Ironmen, then they're responsible for creating the white walkers and are only pretending to flee. The white walkers very suspiciously look like they are the van clearing the way for Mance and the wildlings.

 

[Brad Stark]

8 hours ago, JNR said:

If by "South" you mean "south of the Wall," that's certainly possible.  The canon actually never says when the CotF completely relocated beyond the Wall.  

It could have taken thousands of years after the Andal invasion for all we know; the CotF could have found some form of haven in the North below the Wall for many centuries.  We just don't know.

I mean the Wolfswood, Rainwood, High Heart and Isle of Faces. 

For example, we are told the early leaders of House Durrandon went to war with the Children, but what if Durrandon was an ally of the Children?  The fading power of Durrandon could have coincided with the Children in the Rainwood either dying, leaving or being killed.  We know there is magic in the walls of Storm's End, similar to the Wall.

We know Harren the Black cut down wierwoods to build Harrenhall, nearby High Heart was clear-cut by the Andals, and the Isle of Faces remains untouched.  But suppose Harren or his grandfather killed the last of the Children or there are even Children still on the Isle of Faces?  I doubt Harren and the Green men were friends, but something powerful would have had to stop Harren from conquering them.

Both of these are histories the Septons and Maesters would want changed.  The Houses in question have died out, and the victors write history.

[Brad Stark]

9 hours ago, JNR said:

I think LC Mormont knows what he's talking about.  

Given a 90% headcount decline in only 300 years... and without any reason to suppose the death rate exploded in that time (such as a pandemic)... there really is no other explanation but that fewer men are being sent.

I don't doubt Mormont is correct, and we are talking about more than 90%.  We do have other explanations, which I suggested:

1) The whole history of the Watch was fabricated at some point in the past.

2) Harren's brother had more men because he was an occupying/conquering army, not because more men were sent to the Watch back then.

3) There was a clear, present and immediate threat the Wall and Watch was defending 300 years ago, with urgency to send men and many more men with personal desire to join.

Any one of these, or any combination, could be true, and to me seem more believable than > 90% reduction in men sent from Pax Targanya.

Pax Targanya being responsible is also at odds with Mormont noticing the decline - it seems the Watch has declined significantly in his lifetime.  If Pax Targanya was responsible, I'd expect him to say the Watch has been understaffed since the Conquest, but numbers have remained the same in the past 250 years.

The death rate is irrelevant over 300 years, no one lives that long, and the men are celibate.  Some break their vows, and bastards do join (e.g. Mance), but this is not a significant percentage.  A 90% mortality event 200 years ago would have no effect on the numbers of people at the watch today.

[SirArthur]

6 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

I don't doubt Mormont is correct, and we are talking about more than 90%.  We do have other explanations, which I suggested:

1) The whole history of the Watch was fabricated at some point in the past.

2) Harren's brother had more men because he was an occupying/conquering army, not because more men were sent to the Watch back then.

3) There was a clear, present and immediate threat the Wall and Watch was defending 300 years ago, with urgency to send men and many more men with personal desire to join.

Any one of these, or any combination, could be true, and to me seem more believable than > 90% reduction in men sent from Pax Targanya.

For me it looks more like the remnants of a once larger and better organized force. A force that has lost all it's past possessions in a war and is now more like the brotherhood without banners. They have their duty and they do what they can. But their past is lost. 

Harren's brother as an occupation force can be closer to the truth than we think: there are no Ironborn in the Watch. (Please correct me if I am wrong)

[Frey family reunion]

7 hours ago, SirArthur said:

For me it looks more like the remnants of a once larger and better organized force. A force that has lost all it's past possessions in a war and is now more like the brotherhood without banners. They have their duty and they do what they can. But their past is lost. 

Harren's brother as an occupation force can be closer to the truth than we think: there are no Ironborn in the Watch. (Please correct me if I am wrong)

Cotter Pyke quickly comes to mind

[JNR]

14 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

I mean the Wolfswood, Rainwood, High Heart and Isle of Faces. 

I'm not sure what these have in common.  

It seems to be a matter of history that with the Andal invasion, the CotF were certainly eliminated from the deep woods south of the Neck.

Only the Isle of Faces is left as a faint possibility.  But the truth is we as readers have no idea what is on the Isle at all, or ever has been.

The wolfswood of the North is a completely different matter.  During the Andal invasion it was obviously in an area controlled by the First Men, who still clung to the old gods, still revered weirwoods, and who were also at war with the Andals.  They were never conquered at any time, and never respected Andal culture or law, and we have no reason to think they decided to attack the CotF.

Luwin says the CotF fled north following the Andal invasion, which is just a matter of common sense after all, but he doesn't say north of the Wall, which is the usual position taken in Heresy.

It seems quite possible that for centuries or millennia, they did maintain some sort of presence in the wolfswood (which even now is the size of Great Britain)... before some point in time when (as Osha notes) they eventually lived solely beyond the Wall, as the giants almost certainly did long before them.

[JNR]

14 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

1) The whole history of the Watch was fabricated at some point in the past.

I think there is far too much evidence it was not.  

For instance, it would be impossible to brainwash all the free folk into believing, as they clearly do, that the Watch had been around for thousands of years.

14 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

Harren's brother had more men because he was an occupying/conquering army, not because more men were sent to the Watch back then.

The concept that the Ironborn would have had some motive to invade and occupy the Wall seems not to have any foundation either in Westeros' history or their own culture.  

14 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

There was a clear, present and immediate threat the Wall and Watch was defending 300 years ago, with urgency to send men and many more men with personal desire to join.

Possible, but if so, we've never heard of such a thing.

What we've heard instead are plausible accounts such as this one:

Quote

 "It was the first castle on the Wall, and the largest." But it had also been the first abandoned, all the way back in the time of the Old King. Even then it had been three-quarters empty and too costly to maintain. 

The fact that even 200 years ago, the Nightfort had become "three-quarters empty and too costly to maintain" -- yet never had been before, going back thousands of years -- strongly suggests to me that the Watch really was short on men... that that was a relatively new development in the Watch's history... and that the new shortage of manpower was part of an ongoing, post-Targ trend that has continued to the present day.

[Melifeather]

30 minutes ago, JNR said:

Luwin says the CotF fled north following the Andal invasion, which is just a matter of common sense after all, but he doesn't say north of the Wall, which is the usual position taken in Heresy.

It is stated that the Pact held through the Andal invasion, so Luwin left out why the Children fled, and whether or not the Pact was eventually broken. This implies that the Children remained in the forests until Harren cut the weirwoods down just 300 short years ago, therefore it seems logical that this would be the time period when they fled. 

It is also during the last third of the 300 year reign of Targaryens that Bloodraven is sent to the Wall and then abandons his LC position to become the "Last" Greenseer - which also seems to support the idea that the Targaryens were summoned to help the Children.

[Black Crow]

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

It is stated that the Pact held through the Andal invasion, so Luwin left out why the Children fled, and whether or not the Pact was eventually broken. This implies that the Children remained in the forests until Harren cut the weirwoods down just 300 short years ago, therefore it seems logical that this would be the time period when they fled. 

 

Aux contraire, he said the Pact held until the Andals came along

"So long as the Kingdoms of the First Men held sway, the Pact endured, all through the Age of Heroes and  the Long Night and the birth of the Seven Kingdoms, yet finally there came a time, many centuries later, when other people crossed the Narrow Sea.

"The Andals were the first... The Andals burnt out the weirwood groves, hacked down the faces, slaughtered the children where they found them, and everywhere proclaimed the triumph of the Seven over the old gods. So the children fled north- 

At this point Summer starts howling because the raven is coming, so we don't know for certain whether they fled straight beyond the Wall as Osha implies or stopped for tea and blinis on the way, but there's absolutely  no doubt that they fled long before Harren turned up.