U.S. Politics: Gunnin' From The Long Arm of the Law

[DMC]

9 minutes ago, WinterFox said:

If you think that in 3 weeks there won't be ICE agents burning rubber to round up newly designated fair targets, you're a fool.

I mean that. I like you, you're really knowledgeable and add a lot to this forum. But give me a break man, they'll take any excuse not to give them permanent status. 

I'm emphasizing that what happens on March 6, including if the administration starts giving ICE the greenlight to deport, remains entirely unclear.  

[Fragile Bird]

As far as I can tell, what Florida is going to do to help the victims of gun violence is not pass laws but pay for funerals.

I watched the Florida Attorney General, a woman named Pam Bondi, praise the work of police and first responders and then explain Florida would pay for the funerals. She is graded A+ by the NRA and praised as true supporter of the 2nd amendment. She was given kudos for by the NRA for supporting the changes made to Florida law to allow 18 to 21 year-olds to own guns.

The largest groups of murderers in Florida are the 18 to 21 age bracket.

[Shryke]

1 hour ago, Triskele said:

Starting to look like deporting them was always the goal and they were just slow-playing it and acting publicly like they wanted to find a deal.

I'm not sure it was a goal, they (as in Congressional Republican leadership) just don't give a shit.

Like, it might have been a goal for Trump but it might just have been his standard operating procedure of undoing anything anyone tells him Obama did because Trump is literally just the racist blacklash to the election of a black President. I suspect it's more the later given his comments up until Kelly and Miller got to whispering in his ear.

Ryan and McConnell would have just done nothing about the issue. They aren't jumping at the opportunity to deport Dreamers. They just don't care.

But now that it's here they don't care the other way either and don't wanna do anything about the issue. McConnell is willing to use it to fuck with Democrats because he lacks morals of any sort or any sense of decency. And fundamentally the big hurdle is that any DACA fix bill is probably never getting past the House because Ryan would have to both violate the Pedophile/Hastert Rule to do it and open up the debate on immigration, both of which would likely end his Speakership.

The white supremacists (ie - the GOP) are just looking to use it as leverage to try and curb legal immigration and keep america great/white. Without that they don't give a shit about the issue.

[Shryke]

4 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

As far as I can tell, what Florida is going to do to help the victims of gun violence is not pass laws but pay for funerals.

I watched the Florida Attorney General, a woman named Pam Bondi, praise the work of police and first responders and then explain Florida would pay for the funerals. She is graded A+ by the NRA and praised as true supporter of the 2nd amendment. She was given kudos for by the NRA for supporting the changes made to Florida law to allow 18 to 21 year-olds to own guns.

The largest groups of murderers in Florida are the 18 to 21 age bracket.

She's also the person who dropped the suit against Trump University after Trump bribed her with donations.

[Sivin]

Just now, dmc515 said:

I'm emphasizing that what happens on March 6, including if the administration starts giving ICE the greenlight to deport, remains entirely unclear.  

Let me clear it up for you.

As Der Tag approaches we will see a lot of angry buzzing from Democrats that R's will shrug off by (I expect) claiming other pressing business. Democrats ceded any and all leverage by agreeing to the budget deal the other day.

Around the first or second of next month we will start to see the R wing start to demand that their president maintain his promise to "get rid of 'em". 

By the fourth, Democrats will be begging for R's to fuck them without lube in exchange for 600k getting to stay. 

On the sixth, Trump will announce that Democrats refused to deal in good faith and that ICE is doing their jobs.

 

Funny thing about federal judges, you can always find another one willing to do R bidding. And the Supreme Court is... OH! It's owned by racists and partisans! 

[all swedes are racist]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/house-passes-changes-to-americans-with-disabilities-act-over-activists-objections/2018/02/15/c812c9ea-125b-11e8-9065-e55346f6de81_story.html?utm_term=.c2b2c33ca130

wow, cool cool, very good. also extremely cool of 12 democrats to vote in favor of this.

27 minutes ago, goomba said:

in Russia, people don't own guns, instead guns own people 

wow, what a fresh and well thought out joke  

[Fragile Bird]

Back to what I just posted.

I watched the governor of Florida give a press conference (was it this morning? Everything is just so compressed), when Bondi came on, first giving her praise to all those who responded to the tragic events, and then launching into the fact Florida would pay for the funerals.

it was just so surreal. She didn’t add anything to what the governor was saying about ‘these shootings need to stop!’ (what has he done since the attack on the nightclub last year?), she kept saying Flotida would pay for the funerals. It was...bizarre. I couldn’t quite believe what I was watching.

To all of you here with children, or who have siblings at school, or who know children who go to school, you must take great comfort in knowing that if this happened where you live, your state will probably pay for the funerals. Right?

[DMC]

15 minutes ago, WinterFox said:

As Der Tag approaches we will see a lot of angry buzzing from Democrats that R's will shrug off by (I expect) claiming other pressing business. Democrats ceded any and all leverage by agreeing to the budget deal the other day.

Around the first or second of next month we will start to see the R wing start to demand that their president maintain his promise to "get rid of 'em". 

By the fourth, Democrats will be begging for R's to fuck them without lube in exchange for 600k getting to stay. 

On the sixth, Trump will announce that Democrats refused to deal in good faith and that ICE is doing their jobs.

We'll see.  But Trump's equivocation and the lack of preparation on behalf of the Justice and HS departments have given no indication of such efforts.  Plus only SCOTUS can stay the 9th Circuit's injunction, and (as that Vox piece points out) they're unlikely to do anything unless the administration convinces them ending DACA is an urgent matter.  Plus Congressional GOP leadership knows how unpopular ending DACA is, and are world experts at delaying unpopular decisions.  You're assuming quite a bit with very little basis.

[TheKitttenGuard]

50 minutes ago, goomba said:

in Russia, people don't own guns, instead guns own people 

That is the U.S.

[all swedes are racist]

27 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

We'll see.  But Trump's equivocation and the lack of preparation on behalf of the Justice and HS departments have given no indication of such efforts.  Plus only SCOTUS can stay the 9th Circuit's injunction, and (as that Vox piece points out) they're unlikely to do anything unless the administration convinces them ending DACA is an urgent matter.  Plus Congressional GOP leadership knows how unpopular ending DACA is, and are world experts at delaying unpopular decisions.  You're assuming quite a bit with very little basis.

you may seem to have more faith in scotus (especially the current make up) than i do, but i will say thank satan for trumps lack of fuckin object permanence and his inability to consider either his own past or future actions, when it comes to brings cases to federal courts

arbitrary and capricious, baby!

[DMC]

Just now, unpaid comintern said:

you may seem to have more faith in scotus (especially the current make up) than i do, but i will say thank satan for trumps lack of fuckin object permanence and his inability to consider either his own past or future actions, when it comes to brings cases to federal courts

Well, I have faith in them wanting to stay out of immediate political controversies if possible - that's a large part of how they try to maintain their legitimacy.  And yeah, it's hard for the Trump administration to argue ending DACA is an urgent matter when essentially keeping DACA is one of Trump's "four pillars."  

[Kalbear]

How unpopular is ending DACA, exactly? 

I get people don't like it - but they don't like school shootings either, and yet that seems to happen fairly regularly without anything changing. I get that it would be upsetting, but would it actually change people's vote?

I doubt it.

[Sivin]

1 minute ago, Kalbear said:

How unpopular is ending DACA, exactly? 

I get people don't like it - but they don't like school shootings either, and yet that seems to happen fairly regularly without anything changing. I get that it would be upsetting, but would it actually change people's vote?

I doubt it.

Huh. I was still trying to figure out the wording, but this has it. 

Well done Bear. 

I was getting caught up in things like SCOTUS anointing Bush II, or Citizens United, or Gerrymandering, or basic human decency. 

[DMC]

7 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

How unpopular is ending DACA, exactly? 

Polling is pretty clear:

Quote

The incredibly useful polling aggregator Polling Report has a rundown of recent surveys asking Americans if they’d support a bill “allowing undocumented immigrants who were brought to the U.S. as children to remain in the United States and eventually apply for citizenship,” to quote Quinnipiac’s exact wording. The phrasing differs from poll to poll, but the findings are remarkably consistent and overwhelming:

• Quinnipiac, February 2-5, 2018: 81 percent support such a bill, 14 percent oppose it.
• Monmouth University, January 28-30, 2018: 73 percent support “allowing people who illegally immigrated when they were children to automatically become U.S. citizens, as long as they don’t have a criminal record,” 25 percent oppose that.
• ABC News/Washington Post, January 15-18, 2018: 87 percent support a “program that allows undocumented immigrants to stay in the United States if they arrived here as a child, completed high school or military service and have not been convicted of a serious crime”; only 11 percent oppose.
• CNN, January 14-15 and 17-18, 2018: 84 percent want to continue Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program (“a U.S. government program allows some immigrants who were brought to the U.S. illegally as children to remain in the U.S. without risk of deportation. To qualify, immigrants had to be under the age of 30 as of 2012, have no criminal record, and be a student, in the military, or have earned a high school diploma.”); 11 percent want to end it.
• CBS News, January 13-16, 2018: 87 percent favor “allowing young immigrants who were brought to the U.S. illegally as children to remain in the country if they meet certain requirements such as going to school or joining the military, and not having a criminal record”; only 11 percent oppose.
• Pew Research Center, January 10-15, 2018: 74 percent favor a law granting “permanent legal status” to “immigrants who came illegally to the U.S. when they were children”; 21 percent oppose.
• NBC News/Wall Street Journal, December 13-15, 2017: 62 percent support continuing DACA; 19 percent supporting ending it.
• Marist, December 4-7, 2017: 58 percent want to let DREAMers become citizens, 23 percent want to let them stay not as citizens, 15 percent want to deport them.

 

9 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

I get people don't like it - but they don't like school shootings either, and yet that seems to happen fairly regularly without anything changing. I get that it would be upsetting, but would it actually change people's vote?

Issue salience is always an important question.  Best way to raise the issue salience of Dreamers?  Start deporting them.

[Kalbear]

So...you don't know. Cool beans. 

Again, I know most everyone likes the idea of continuing DACA. And doesn't like ending it. Is it enough to change their vote at all? Or their support of Trump? I doubt it seriously. 

My suspicion is that they won't come in with jackboots. They'll instead go after the dreamer's families first, which thanks to having all that info they have a good idea of who they are and where they are. They'll rely on that fear to cause more to self-deport, and say that it's their choice.

[all swedes are racist]

3 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

Polling is pretty clear:

 

Issue salience is always an important question.  Best way to raise the issue salience of Dreamers?  Start deporting them.

you mean like killing school children?

[Sivin]

1 minute ago, dmc515 said:

Polling is pretty clear:

 

Issue salience is always an important question.  Best way to raise the issue salience of Dreamers?  Start deporting them.

Yeah and when they're gone? Do you think Democrats should waste political capitol trying to unfuck that situation? I don't. And I'd slit my fucking throat to keep those people in this country. 

Our best hope is that these low creatures are too fucking dumb to understand that if they don't want to outright engage in despotism then they have 3 years to make a mess so bad (again) that the party of sanity won't be able to clean it up (again) before they retake power (again). 

[all swedes are racist]

2 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

So...you don't know. Cool beans. 

Again, I know most everyone likes the idea of continuing DACA. And doesn't like ending it. Is it enough to change their vote at all? Or their support of Trump? I doubt it seriously. 

My suspicion is that they won't come in with jackboots. They'll instead go after the dreamer's families first, which thanks to having all that info they have a good idea of who they are and where they are. They'll rely on that fear to cause more to self-deport, and say that it's their choice.

1) sorry, what kind of boots do you think ice is wearing?

2) not just families, but they are going to (and already) going after public and notable immigration activists, to help silence protest/activism

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Kalbear said:

So...you don't know. Cool beans. 

Again, I know most everyone likes the idea of continuing DACA. And doesn't like ending it. Is it enough to change their vote at all? Or their support of Trump? I doubt it seriously. 

How the hell would anyone know the effect of ending a program that's hasn't ended yet - let alone its effect on vote choice?  You have an annoying habit of asking for impossible evidence then acting like the absence of such supports your point.

5 minutes ago, unpaid comintern said:

you mean like killing school children?

Responsibility attribution would be much clearer on who ended DACA than who is responsible for school shootings in many voters minds.

[DMC]

6 minutes ago, WinterFox said:

Yeah and when they're gone? Do you think Democrats should waste political capitol trying to unfuck that situation?

No, they should not.