U.S. Politics: Gunnin' From The Long Arm of the Law

[Kalbear]

1 minute ago, dmc515 said:

Again, nobody really knows what they'll do.  I sincerely doubt Trump knows what he's going to do at this point.  Is this possible?  Sure.  It's also possible Trump decides to give Congress more time.  It's also possible he allows more DACA applications to come in until the court order is overturned.  And, sure, it's possible the brownshirts will move in quick in a couple weeks time.  The only thing we do know is this uncertainty already hurts DACA recipients.

I can say this with some confidence because this is already what they've been doing. Trump isn't in charge of this plan anyway - it's Kelly and the folks at ICE. And they know perfectly well what they want to do. They've already moved on a number of older, peaceful members, but never in force for a given community, and not a whole lot at once. They've specifically gone after those who have had prior issues of some kind (even if they were 20-30 years ago) and had shown up recently in some fashion, often as part of work snitching and reporting. 

I think that's going to continue, because it's been successful as far as Trump's goals go and hasn't caused too much negative press. 

As to the court, I think they're going to decide quickly along partisan lines that the ban on DACA is perfectly fine, with major dissenting opinions that will be ignored.

[Kalbear]

8 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Not sure this is entirely true. I think this might be true in sanctuary cities, but if DACA fails to be sorted out and these people are officially illegal, ICE will be at their doors when they can. They've already been doing it this past year and have gotten even more aggressive in 2018. There is almost no chance that ICE will just let them be if they're legally allowed to arrest, hold and deport. This is the kind of shit these guys live for.

As for Kelly, don't think he gives a fuck. ICE wasn't very quite when Kelly ran the DHS.

Eh. ICE could be at their doors now, but they haven't been. They've been going after a lot more targets of opportunity like El Salvadorans and Haitians who were here as pseudo-refugees. There still hasn't been the kind of mass deportation and capture that people feared. In that way it is significantly quieter, and much quieter than Bannon's idiotic travel ban rollout.

And Kelly does  care about that, because he wants to do it reasonably quietly. They are going after them more, but that still isn't an incredibly fast pace. A lot depends on the amount of manpower they have to bear, honestly. Right now they simply can't process and hold that many. That will likely change soon. 

[Shryke]

ICE is waiting for the go ahead. ICE is chomping at the bit over this. They are the literal jack-booted fascist thugs of America's white supremacist right-wing that has taken over the Republican party.

You are talking about an organization that was furious Obama told them to prioritize criminals for deportation.

[Mexal]

33 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Eh. ICE could be at their doors now, but they haven't been. They've been going after a lot more targets of opportunity like El Salvadorans and Haitians who were here as pseudo-refugees. There still hasn't been the kind of mass deportation and capture that people feared. In that way it is significantly quieter, and much quieter than Bannon's idiotic travel ban rollout.

And Kelly does  care about that, because he wants to do it reasonably quietly. They are going after them more, but that still isn't an incredibly fast pace. A lot depends on the amount of manpower they have to bear, honestly. Right now they simply can't process and hold that many. That will likely change soon. 

Well, not really. Trump set a March 5th deadline for the expiration of DACA and two courts have already blocked the ending of the program so not sure ICE can legally arrest and deport DACA recipients unless they fit any of the criteria that allows ICE to revoke their status. While they may not be a priority today, they may be if the courts allow the program to end because ICE already has their information and can easily show up and take care of them which is their goal. As you said, manpower (agents and judges) will be the driving force behind how fast they're able to deport people but it won't be for lack of trying. 

[Kalbear]

4 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Well, not really. Trump set a March 5th deadline for the expiration of DACA and two courts have already blocked the ending of the program so not sure ICE can legally arrest and deport DACA recipients unless they fit any of the criteria that allows ICE to revoke their status. While they may not be a priority today, they may be if the courts allow the program to end because ICE already has their information and can easily show up and take care of them which is their goal. As you said, manpower (agents and judges) will be the driving force behind how fast they're able to deport people but it won't be for lack of trying. 

Those court cases are going to be heard by SCOTUS as early as Monday. Chances are good it'll be denied. 

[Zorral]

USians should think very very very hard and carefully from where they think their social security payments, medicare, medicaid and all the other many benefits the middle class in particular have received via tax dollars, when all the immigrants are gone gone gone away, beyond the wall.

I am thinking of many among my acquaintance such as a retired Army JAG, who is now a lobbyist doing extraordinarily lucrative work 'mediating' among the Pentagon, Veterans Hospitals and Big Pharma.  He has an autistic son, all of whose care and benefits are paid for via federally funded programs -- which, among other things, allows retired JAG and wife to leave on long vacations to their second home in London and attend the theater to their hearts' content.  He went to war with everyone to get every penny and caregiver out of those programs he could squeeze, and he's proud of it.  Also the home and school caregivers are -- well, they are either from Mexico or Central America -- who hardly if at all, receive minimum wage, but they do do pay taxes.  he thinks 'these people' have no right to be here . . . .

[Mexal]

 

[lokisnow]

58 minutes ago, Mexal said:

 

Certainly an improvement, but still looks unfairly compact. Lets start a gerrymandering movement that ensures there are never more than 250,000 non urban residents per district ( in states with urban areas.)  chop up some of those big rural blockades with good philly voters. Dilute the rural vote!  

(Note silliness )

[Mexal]

6 minutes ago, lokisnow said:

Certainly an improvement, but still looks unfairly compact. Lets start a gerrymandering movement that ensures there are never more than 250,000 non urban residents per district ( in states with urban areas.)  chop up some of those big rural blockades with good philly voters. Dilute the rural vote!  

(Note silliness )

It’s the best Democrats were going to get and very nonpartisan. From what others are saying, it’s better than House Dems submitted. At best, in a wave, Dems could be looking at a 11-7 advantage. That’s pretty good. Just looks like a fair map.

[Kalbear]

The best way to beat gerrymandering is to make it so that the maps allow for local officials to be elected but also allow balancing based on total party vote. 

[Ice Queen]

1 hour ago, lokisnow said:

Certainly an improvement, but still looks unfairly compact. Lets start a gerrymandering movement that ensures there are never more than 250,000 non urban residents per district ( in states with urban areas.)  chop up some of those big rural blockades with good philly voters. Dilute the rural vote!  

(Note silliness )

It's better than it was. Central PA is a whole lot of nothing with not a lot of people,  hence the big districts. Allegheny County is still split, but it looks fairer than the old map.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

On 2/16/2018 at 9:58 PM, Pony Queen Jace said:

I'm just sayin', I said there might be Ruskies on this board.

Well CNN says that there are probably Ruskies on places like this board.

Just fucking saying.

 

On 2/16/2018 at 10:01 PM, Fragile Bird said:

I've always thought that.

There are at least two posters here who do nothing but regurgitate RT talking points and prop up Putin, so yeah, they're here alright.

On 2/16/2018 at 10:38 PM, dmc515 said:

I'm worried about you making money in the future.

Well she did use to have a scheme to "take all the monies in the world." No reports though if she's given this up or not. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

On 2/17/2018 at 0:21 PM, Fragile Bird said:

Maybe it was done on a Friday to give Trump something to think about over a long weekend? 

It's hard to know if this was the motivation, but it sure did cause that effect. Trump was going nuts on Twitter. It was like watching a person have a full mental breakdown in real time. 

[Yukle]

Oh my goodness!

Reports are emerging that Chinese "persons" tried to take possession of the nuclear football case during Trump's visit to Beijing. I'm guessing his photos showing people posing with the case at Mar-a-Lago, and therefore allowed close contact with it, proved wonderful for security.

This is alongside another story that Trump apparently went off his nut complaining that he couldn't play golf because it would be seen as insensitive to have come to Florida for that reason.

[Zorral]

Can he not be removed from office on the grounds that he's entirely incapable of doing any single little bit of the job of keeping the US safe?  He can't even read security briefings.

[IamMe90]

7 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Can he not be removed from office on the grounds that he's entirely incapable of doing any single little bit of the job of keeping the US safe?  He can't even read security briefings.

Of course he can. Then issue is that no one with the ability to do so will. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

18 minutes ago, Yukle said:

Oh my goodness!

Reports are emerging that Chinese "persons" tried to take possession of the nuclear football case during Trump's visit to Beijing. I'm guessing his photos showing people posing with the case at Mar-a-Lago, and therefore allowed close contact with it, proved wonderful for security.

This is alongside another story that Trump apparently went off his nut complaining that he couldn't play golf because it would be seen as insensitive to have come to Florida for that reason.

Nothing in this post is shocking, which is in a way shocking. How we sunk this low this fast? 

What a wonderful time to be alive in America.....

[Yukle]

11 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Can he not be removed from office on the grounds that he's entirely incapable of doing any single little bit of the job of keeping the US safe?  He can't even read security briefings.

There are two means, if we want to get legal.

Impeachment is one. The idea is meant to be that if the Senate convicts, then it's correct in its decision. Better yet, after impeachment, a president can be charged as a private citizen for his conduct.

The oft-quoted 25th amendment is also possible. Section 4 says that the Vice President and a "majority of the principal officers of the executive departments" can write to Congress to say that the President is not capable of discharging his duties. After this, the Vice President immediately take office. Congress must be notified within four days.

This would prevent Trump from being able to simply refuse to step down - he wouldn't be president any more. BUT he can still take the office back because Congress must decide on the matter within 21 days. A two-thirds majority is needed is needed to confirm the appointment of Vice-President to acting President thereafter.

Pence has no doubt considered this - he'd have to be the most naive person on Earth for this not to have occurred to him - but he may not want to take power this way. More likely, he hasn't secured the 18 defecting senators and 100 or so defecting reps to pull it off. That's not to say he wouldn't keep his ear to the ground on the matter.

Pence is no fool - if he deposed Trump he wouldn't be a surety for losing the next election. He'd simply have to run on his normal platform, as well as a mix of "anti-Russia" and he'd woo plenty of independents. And, as Trump proved, most Republicans will vote for anyone who is running for their party no matter the baggage.

[Larry of the Lawn]

30 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Can he not be removed from office on the grounds that he's entirely incapable of doing any single little bit of the job of keeping the US safe?  He can't even read security briefings.

At some point we have suspected that politics would be a race to the bottom, eventually the President is going to be a person like the President of the Universe.  It won't be a straight decline to idiot celebrity, but look at 3/4 of the last Republican presidents.  Would have loved to hear the conversation between Ryan, McConnell and Trump where Trump is pushing to create a Department of Professional Wrestling and TV and TV Shows.

[The Anti-Targ]

Are you sure the Democrats would necessarily see President Pence as preferable to President Trump?

Seems to me a possible scenario is that most Republicans may come around to wanting to be rid of Trump and that they will need to convince enough Democrats of the benefits of dumping Trump and installing Pence. I think Democrats are very interested in getting rid of Trump, but I think they would prefer to do it in a way that does not involve handing the crown to Pence. Arguably the course of action for Democrats is to hamstring Trump by getting a majority in the House or Senate (or both) in 2018, and then kicking him out off office in the 2020 Presidential election.