HexMachina Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 41 minutes ago, Fez said: I think proof that Trump was a beta cuck would hurt his image among his supporters. It's almost the only thing that would. More likely he just calls her a whore and a slut, divorces her and declares that the hussy can leave with not a cent, and his supporters cheer him as a strong man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Fez said: Q-polls have been more favorable than most others post-2016; doesn't mean they're wrong, but they are an outlier. On the other hand, it is another point in a trend showing things ticking back towards Democrats. The RCP average has moved from +6.6 to +7.6 for Democrats over the past three weeks; which isn't a huge amount, but is certainly better than the +12.8 to +6.6 decline that occurred over January. It's also getting closer, though not quite all the way yet, to where things were for most of 2017 before Republican support collapsed in December. Trump's job approval may be ticking back down again too, but there's too few recent data points to be sure. Gallup has gone from -17 to -22 over the past week though, and even Ras has gone from -1 to -7. I really hope January, with the afterglow of Christmas and the tax cuts, was the high water mark for Republicans; but there's a lot of time left until the midterms. I thought I saw a poll that said Trump's numbers have been improving among Democrats, from single digits to mid teens (something like 7% to 14%) mainly because of the impact of tax changes and bigger pay checks. 21 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Say it ain't so!: https://globalnews.ca/news/4032224/jared-kushner-could-lose-security-clearance/ How's Jared suppose to foster peace in the Middle East, improve relations with Canada, Mexico and China and beat up Godzilla if he can't get a security clearance? I believe Kelly has said there will be an exception for Jared - he'll still see all the secret stuff he wants to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denstorebog Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Dems flip Kentucky HD-49 by a 86-point swing (not a typo). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukle Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 2 hours ago, mormont said: At this point in time, I'm not sure I believe a pee tape would be a bombshell for Trump. His personal conduct is already so bad that most, if not all, of the damage that would do is already factored in, or at least, that's the impression I get. The sex scandal that would really damage Trump would be if Melania was proven to be cheating on him. I am completely certain this would boost his standing. The narrative would change from denying that he cheated on his wife to saying that she clearly deserved it because she was unfaithful, too. I do agree that releasing the pee tape will be unremarkable, other than Trump would feel embarrassed. The fallout might be funny but his supporters will simply turn on Putin for a while then not care. The only sex scandal that could have Trump unstuck is if it was homosexual, paedophilic or incestuous. Those would see him burn, and the latter two quite rightly. The former because his base are bigots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 3 hours ago, Fez said: I think proof that Trump was a beta cuck would hurt his image among his supporters. It's almost the only thing that would. Isn't the fact that there is significant cross over between his supporters and raving misogynists an indication that the ire and hatred would be all directed at Melania, and they would find a way to turn it into sympathy for Trump? No man is safe from the evil machinations of the vagina cultists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrimTuesday Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 I just noticed that Dennis Kucinich is running for Governor of Ohio. I doubt he will win, but it will force the conversation, namely whether he and Jeff Sessions are two halves of the same conciousness that have been split, one of goodness and light, and the other of evil, and darkness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 4 hours ago, Tywin et al. said: You're right to say that Obama was able to sell his story to a larger audience than Trump, but I'm not sure he did it more effectively in the sense that he created as a deep an emotional connection as Trump did. Obama appealed to people's intellect and aspirations. Trump appealed to people's anger, fear and in securities. Given that negative emotions are stronger than positive ones, I think Trump has been an extremely effective orator, if you consider who he is targeting. He could never get as many people to support him as Obama could, but he got the people he needed to support him to buy in 100%. Did he? Obama is still more popular then Trump afaik. I don't think Trump has ever been more popular then Obama was at any point. Trump couldn't even win the popular vote. Trump got a small contingent of white supremacists to buy in hardcore. The rest is the same kind of shit Obama ran on: change. And even there he didn't succeed as Obama did. Obama sold a story of change but he sold it in a positive way, whereas Trump's vision is always "everything sucks". And Obama's worked way better then Trump's ever has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
all swedes are racist Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said: Isn't the fact that there is significant cross over between his supporters and raving misogynists an indication that the ire and hatred would be all directed at Melania, and they would find a way to turn it into sympathy for Trump? No man is safe from the evil machinations of the vagina cultists. yeah, if there is one thing the trumpenized anti social nihilists can rally around its being spurned by a woman eta: plus, if you think these fucking chuds give a shit about any of that kind of stuff i’ve got a whole warehouses of bridges to sell you. these addled egg brains think most of the major mass shootings are false flag operations carried out by crisis actors, that fluoride in the water turns frogs gay, jack prilosec trying to cheat on his wife on bumble was some sort of hack, qanon, pizzagate, etc. the only thing that would even remotely move the needle is trump going on periscope live and claiming anime is for virgins and calling barron “little homey gay ass” for playing “games for babies” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, Triskele said: So Dennis Kucinich is running for Governor of Ohio as a Dem but has been acting like a Republican a bit lately and going on Fox a lot. And Rob Cordray of Consumer Financial Protection Bureau fame is also running. And that Sanders group Our Revolution is backing Kucinich. WTF. At what point did Sanders' people ever strike you as lacking in a desire to engage ye old circular firing squad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 I am just watching the repeat of Anderson Cooper on CNN and he did a great piece on Trump and Russia. Remember when he repeatedly criticized Obama for not using the phrase, radical Muslim terrorist? Over and over and over? Trump said a person who refused to name the enemy didn't deserve to be president. My how his words come back to bite him in the ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Also. Florida's state legislature only meets for two months of the year? WTF? Is that how state houses act everywhere? 2 friggin' months a year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
all swedes are racist Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 39 minutes ago, Triskele said: So Dennis Kucinich is running for Governor of Ohio as a Dem but has been acting like a Republican a bit lately and going on Fox a lot. And Rob Cordray of Consumer Financial Protection Bureau fame is also running. And that Sanders group Our Revolution is backing Kucinich. WTF. lmao, jesus fuck. going after the key pro-assad tankie vote in ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukle Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said: Also. Florida's state legislature only meets for two months of the year? WTF? Is that how state houses act everywhere? 2 friggin' months a year? The other ten months they just send thoughts and prayers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 11 hours ago, Tywin et al. said: You're right to say that Obama was able to sell his story to a larger audience than Trump, but I'm not sure he did it more effectively in the sense that he created as a deep an emotional connection as Trump did. Obama appealed to people's intellect and aspirations. Trump appealed to people's anger, fear and in securities. Given that negative emotions are stronger than positive ones, I think Trump has been an extremely effective orator, if you consider who he is targeting. He could never get as many people to support him as Obama could, but he got the people he needed to support him to buy in 100%. Again, I'm going to disagree. The number of people who really, really loved and trusted Obama, and still do, is enormous. I know they're not the people everyone for some reason loves to talk about, but they exist. The black community somehow never seem to count in this sort of conversation, but they absolutely do love Obama every bit as much as some sections of the white community love Trump: it isn't some sort of high-falutin' intellectual appeal. There are more of them than there are fanatical Trump supporters. I see this as one more example of excessive focus on Trump and his supporters - not from you, specifically, but it's a general trend. Trump and his supporters stand out to us so we think of them as more exceptional than they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seli Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 On 20/02/2018 at 9:26 AM, dmc515 said: ... In theory, sure, but please identify a PR system (or really any other major country) that doesn't have its head of government as the head of parliament. ... Your wording is a bit strange. But The Netherlands, yes our head of government leads a coalition that has a majority in parliament. But none of the government members keep their seats in parliament (which is easier with the party-system that the country runs on in practice). Another slight but I feel there is another huge difference between the USA and many other countries, the political nature of the executive bureaucracy. I think (but am not sure) that in most of the western world the executive is balanced by long-serving bureaucrats, which act as an additional counterbalance against radical change. A process which seems weaker in the USA, with its political appointments every new government makes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 5 hours ago, Fragile Bird said: Also. Florida's state legislature only meets for two months of the year? WTF? 2 months seems exceptionally short, but State legislature is really a part-time job. It shouldn't be, as the majority of our States are comparable in size to modern Nation States, but there it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 7 hours ago, Fragile Bird said: Also. Florida's state legislature only meets for two months of the year? WTF? Is that how state houses act everywhere? 2 friggin' months a year? Most of them, yeah. Florida is a bit shorter than most, because it's straight up 2 calendar months, rather than 60 legislative days spread out over a longer period of time. But there's only 11 states that don't constitutionally mandate short legislative sessions, and even most of them aren't always in session. Legislatures meet for a little while to pass the state budget and handle any other legislation, and only go into special session if they fail to pass the budget, have to deal with any vetoes, or the governor summons them to handle an immediate issue. It dates back to the idea that being a state legislator should be a part-time job that anyone can do, and the salaries are generally matching that. There's only 10 states where they make more than $50k annually, another 5 that make more than $40k, and another 5 that make more than $30k annually. Though things don't always match up fully. There are states where being a legislator is a full-time job but the salary is not (e.g. Rhode Island, where they make $15k per year) and states were legislator is part-time but they get paid well (e.g. Hawaii, where they make $61k). Florida is kinda in the middle. They get $29,697 for 2 months of work. Which is a real nice rate if it covered the whole year, but is hard to get by on if there's no income sources for the other 10 months. And it can be tricky holding a job while being a state legislator (except for ones like, "partner in a law firm" where you can set your own hours), since you're gone from it for a few months each year, you may be gone additional time for special sessions without much advance warning, and you need to spend time on fundraising, campaigning, and constitutient duties. The whole part-time idea is extremely flawed and helps continue the trend of only the independently wealthy being able to run for office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkynJay Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 12 hours ago, Yukle said: The only sex scandal that could have Trump unstuck is if it was homosexual, paedophilic or incestuous. Those would see him burn, and the latter two quite rightly. The former because his base are bigots. There are already accusations from an underage girl though she ultimately didnt press charges. Paedophilia would only stick if it was truly a child; even then his trolls would dig up selfies from social media and start their slut smear campaign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 21 minutes ago, SkynJay said: There are already accusations from an underage girl though she ultimately didnt press charges. Paedophilia would only stick if it was truly a child; even then his trolls would dig up selfies from social media and start their slut smear campaign. Agreed. As we saw with Roy Moore, plenty of Republicans will defend a pedophile from their side (Doug Jones' pollsters claim the race was basically tied before the accusations, and that they didn't move the needle). And even if it was a pre-teen child, I think a lot of Republicans would still stand by Trump unless there was some sort of visual proof. Otherwise, "it's just baseless accusations." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Queen Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 13 hours ago, denstorebog said: Dems flip Kentucky HD-49 by a 86-point swing (not a typo). And depending on what poll you use, Conor Lamb is within the margin of error to take PA-18. THAT would be something. We in this district haven't elected a Democrat since forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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