Question Does Varys knows who Jon Snow really is?

[Light a wight tonight]

20 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

You've hit on one of the things which doesn't really work for me about ASOIAF. I don't really understand how the communication works in a world where nearly everyone is illiterate and information must travel great distances. But it does apparently as we see with LF and Varys.

Just guessing, but Pyp maybe doesn't need to read, just to report to someone else who reports from there and on it goes. It's possible the information to travel by land or ship and not be written down at all.  Not being able to read at all might be a hindrance to a mummer. All lines would have to memorized orally. Also, if I was a paid informant, I would probably would choose to avoid any unnecessary suspicion by saying I couldn't read. 

ASOS Daenerys V

 

Lord Varys reported every move Viserys made, for years. Whilst I sat on the small council, I heard a hundred such reports. And since the day you wed Khal Drogo, there has been an informer by your side selling your secrets, trading whispers to the Spider for gold and promises."

 

If Varys and LF can manage situations like above and the other times they knew something which took place over great distances, then I assume they could manage the Wall without a problem. I don't really get how, but maybe that would be spoilery for the reader. I just go with it.  

 

 

Varys has a spy network that brings information on topics he finds important. Plus he's partners with Illyrio in whatever Targ/Blackfyre restoration scheme they're doing, and Illyirio is in Essos with contacts everywhere (a merchant of his importance just does). There's no mystery how Varys gets his info on the Targ kids. Later Jorah is sending reports back to Varys, betraying Dany for money.

It's just my opinion, but Varys probably isn't interested in what's going on in the North, which is too far from the seat of power, so he hasn't wasted resources spying up there.

Littlefinger has commercial interests all over, so his contacts are certainly reporting back on various situations. 

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, Sophia [email protected] said:

I believe the show is going a different path and they cut the plot of Aegon Targaryen/Young Griff from the show version. Varys having a plot going on with Young Griff on books Does that mean Varys knows about Jon Snow and his birth?

This one's a bit of a puzzle. On the one hand, it seems inconceivable that a man who has spies and informants across the land, and across the seas, would not be tracking the development of a Targaryen son, bastard or not, if he knew his true identity. And while there certainly is no evidence to suggest that Varys has any inkling about Jon, we can't be certain that he doesn't either.

But assuming that Varys does not have Jon on his radar, the question is why not? Like virtually everybody else in Westeros, the damage that Targ bastards can cause the realm are well known. They had just finished off the last of the Blackfyre pretenders not 20 years before, so when word got around that Rhaegar had kidnapped Lyanna and was holding her in secret for however many months, virtually everybody, and certainly someone like Varys, should have been terrified (or overjoyed, depending on their POV) that a whole new generation of rival claimants to the throne is on the way. So when Ned returns to KL and reports that Lyanna is dead and that's the end of it, the fact that she did not produce a child should come as a huge relief/disappointment. But then Ned returns to Winterfell and news trickles out that the most honorable man in the kingdom fathered a bastard during the war, well, a supposedly smart man like Varys should be expected to put two and two together.

So IMO, it was a pretty big blunder by Varys either way. If he knew of Jon's origins, then it was hugely derelict of him just to blow it off, since he has no idea whether Ned or anyone else plans to use him someday to take the throne. If he didn't, then that means he was outwitted by someone who later proves to be utterly inept when it comes to political intrigue and the game of thrones. 

[Ygrain]

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

But then Ned returns to Winterfell and news trickles out that the most honorable man in the kingdom fathered a bastard during the war

Thing is, did this particular piece of news travel South? Cersei probably did hear (her comment about raping a Dornish woman while her home was burning), but did Varys?

Also: the honorable Ned Stark slipping once sounds way more probable than the paragon of honour lying to his BF and king.

 

[Lollygag]

17 minutes ago, Light a wight tonight said:

Varys has a spy network that brings information on topics he finds important. Plus he's partners with Illyrio in whatever Targ/Blackfyre restoration scheme they're doing, and Illyirio is in Essos with contacts everywhere (a merchant of his importance just does). There's no mystery how Varys gets his info on the Targ kids. Later Jorah is sending reports back to Varys, betraying Dany for money.

It's just my opinion, but Varys probably isn't interested in what's going on in the North, which is too far from the seat of power, so he hasn't wasted resources spying up there.

Littlefinger has commercial interests all over, so his contacts are certainly reporting back on various situations. 

Pulling stuff about Viserys and Dany was just one example.

AGOT Tyrion IX (Tywin speaking)

Oh, Varys hears his whispers. Stannis is building ships, Stannis is hiring sellswords, Stannis is bringing a shadowbinder from Asshai. What does it mean? Is any of it true?" He gave an irritated shrug. "Kevan, bring us the map."

…

The faintest flicker of distaste played across Lord Tywin's thin lips. "Nothing … yet. My grandson still sits the Iron Throne, but the eunuch has heard whispers from the south. Renly Baratheon wed Margaery Tyrell at Highgarden this fortnight past, and now he has claimed the crown. The bride's father and brothers have bent the knee and sworn him their swords." 

 

In general, I’d agree and this was my impression for a long time, but if Varys believes Jon is Rhaegar’s and Lyanna’s and Ned the bff of Robert is hiding him, then Varys would really be dropping the ball in not keeping track. Just me, but if I’d been planning the Aegon plot for ~15 years, I’d want to err on the side of caution and try to avoid any unpleasant surprises.

 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

The information coming down from the Wall is likely coming from the trading ships that visit Eastwatch. These ships travel to King's Landing and Oldtown and Essos. Arya found out about Jon being named Lord Commander when she heard talk of him in the taverns and brothels of Ragman's Harbor. 

It's at the docks that Aurane Waters and Qyburn hear talk of dragons. One of Illyrio's ships is seized near Dragonstone by Salla. It's from the captain of the Myraham that Robb gets the news that Balon Greyjoy was dead, of the kingsmoot and starts making plans to take Moat Cailin. The news of Robert's death comes to Dany from Quhuru Mo of the Cinnamon Wind, and in AFFC, he confirms the news of the dragons to Maester Aemon because he saw them.

Varys has the docks of King's Landing as did Littlefinger, and in the Vale, Littlefinger can have people at Gulltown collecting information for him.

These are not ravens, but trading ships have been a rather important source of information throughout the story. Anything to do with Jon, like his freak out on Alliser Thorne, the burning of the wight, his "trial", him holding the Wall during the attack on Castle Black and other things he has done is being passed through Eastwatch, I think.

If Varys knows Jon is Rhaegar's son, then it wouldn't be difficult for him to follow what Jon has been up to.

[Megorova]

On 17.02.2018 at 9:45 PM, Sophia [email protected] said:

I believe the show is going a different path and they cut the plot of Aegon Targaryen/Young Griff from the show version. Varys having a plot going on with Young Griff on books Does that mean Varys knows about Jon Snow and his birth?

I think that they cut out from the show everything related to Blackfyres. Thus Varys there and Varys from the books are totally different people, with different background and different future. Thus absence of Young Griff there, doesn't mean that Varys from here knows about Jon's identity. I think that the only people that knew, who were Jon's real parents, was Ned Stark and maybe - Howland Reed, Ashara Dayne/Jyana Reed (this is my speculation, that she's alive and married with Howland), and wet nurse Wylla from Starfall (because she was also Jon's wet nurse).

Though could be that even Wylla didn't knew who were baby's parents. She was just a wet nurse, thus they just brought her beforehand to the Tower of Joy, just in case. Or maybe because Lyanna wasn't intending to breastfeed her child, and instead was going to give him to be cared by wet nurse. Which was a normal practice for highborn ladies. So most likely Wylla came to TofJ already after Rhaegar has left, and thus she never met him. Could be that she was given the child, only after Lyanna has died. So could be that Wylla wasn't even aware who was Jon's mother. Could be that after Eddard Stark came to TofJ, and took her and the baby with him to Winterfell, she thought that he is the baby's father, and that the mother died, even though she didn't even knew who the mother was. She never saw her.

If Howland Reed didn't went into the Tower together with Ned (and I think that he didn't), and if afterwards Ned didn't told him that Lyanna gave birth to a child and then died, then in this case, even Howland may not know who are Jon's parents. Howland Reed was badly wounded during that fight with Kingsguards. He even had to remain at TofJ, after Ned left. So could be that Howland was unconscious, when Ned went into the Tower, and for some time after that. Could be that he was brought into the Tower, to recuperate from his wounds, but he and Lyanna's body, and the newborn baby with Wylla, were in separate rooms/floors.

Thus if Ashara Dayne was at the TofJ together with Arthur and Lyanna, and she was the one who brought Wylla from Starfall, then currently only Ashara knows identities of Jon's parents. Maybe she told this secret to her husband Howland Reed, or maybe she kept it even from him.

And I doubt that Ned ever told anyone about who Jon really is. Thus the only people that may know, or may not know who were Jon's parents, are Howland Reed and/or Ashara Dayne/Jyana Reed.

Or maybe no one knows.

If Jyana Reed is not Ashara Dayne. If Howland Reed was badly wounded and unconscious. If Wylla was brought to the TofJ after Rhaegar's departure, wasn't told by anyone about mother's identity, and wasn't present there in Lyanna's final moments, when Lyanna told everything to Ned, then Wylla also knew nothing. And Ned died. Thus no one knows.

And Bran is the only one who can find out about it, if he will see that in one of his visions from the past.

[Free Northman Reborn]

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

See above. Jon looks like a Stark. He is of no use in a Targaryen restoration scheme since his looks do not give his identity away. It won't be easy to convince people that Eddard Stark's bastard is actually a Targaryen prince - never mind, how good the evidence is.

Still beating that old drum, are you?

[Lord Varys]

19 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Still beating that old drum, are you?

Varys knows that power resides where people believe power resides. That's the entire point of his scheme. People are going to want to believe that his Aegon is Rhaegar's son.

But nobody in their right mind would conceive a scheme for a Targaryen restoration with boy in the middle of it who doesn't look the part of the Targaryen prince, whose very existence has been concealed from the public, and who has been raised as a bastard.

That is just common sense. And it doesn't just extend to Jon. Nobody would parade around a Princess Rhaenys as a pretender, even if people had reason to believe she was still alive. Because she doesn't look Targaryen. It would be the same if Baelor Breakspear was believed to be dead as a child - nobody would give a fig about a prince who looks Dornish, either.

[Free Northman Reborn]

23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Varys knows that power resides where people believe power resides. That's the entire point of his scheme. People are going to want to believe that his Aegon is Rhaegar's son.

But nobody in their right mind would conceive a scheme for a Targaryen restoration with boy in the middle of it who doesn't look the part of the Targaryen prince, whose very existence has been concealed from the public, and who has been raised as a bastard.

That is just common sense. And it doesn't just extend to Jon. Nobody would parade around a Princess Rhaenys as a pretender, even if people had reason to believe she was still alive. Because she doesn't look Targaryen. It would be the same if Baelor Breakspear was believed to be dead as a child - nobody would give a fig about a prince who looks Dornish, either.

Your obsession with Targ looks means they could grab any Lyseni whore's boy and proclaim him Rhaegar's long lost son. It's not about looks, since the looks don't distinguish you from a thousand Lyseni street urchins. It's about who vouches for the child.

Anyway, I don't believe Varys knows anything whatsoever about Jon's true identity. But I certainly don't buy into the convenient false argument that a lack of Targ looks means Jon is not able to take his father's throne. That's just what the Daenerys fans want to believe.

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Your obsession with Targ looks means they could grab any Lyseni whore's boy and proclaim him Rhaegar's long lost son. It's not about looks, since the looks don't distinguish you from a thousand Lyseni street urchins. It's about who vouches for the child.

Who cares about that? Most Westerosi have never been to Essos, and many of them might not even know how the people of Lys and Volantis look.

People would also have to vouch for such a person, of course (as Jon Connington does), but the crucial thing to convince people that this whole fairy-tale story might be true is that the pretender looks the part. If he doesn't, then the guy isn't the right material to play the role in the game.

No person in their right mind would work with somebody with the looks of Jon in the kind of game Varys and Illyrio are playing. Just as nobody would be using a black-haired boy as a Lannister pretender, a golden-haired child as Baratheon pretender, etc.

4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Anyway, I don't believe Varys knows anything whatsoever about Jon's true identity. But I certainly don't buy into the convenient false argument that a lack of Targ looks means Jon is not able to take his father's throne. That's just what the Daenerys fans want to believe.

You have not been reading what I've written. I said that Varys might know who Jon actually is - and that if he does, he simply doesn't give shit about him because he looks the way he looks. He is of no use in Varys' game. Varys wants his plan to succeed, not invest a lot of time, money, and effort into a doomed pretender.

And Jon would have been a doomed pretender if anybody had put him forth as a pretender to the Iron Throne.

Whether he can take the throne on the basis of his own merits, deeds, heroics, connections to his aunt, etc. is a completely separate issue.

[Free Northman Reborn]

14 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Who cares about that? Most Westerosi have never been to Essos, and many of them might not even know how the people of Lys and Volantis look.

People would also have to vouch for such a person, of course (as Jon Connington does), but the crucial thing to convince people that this whole fairy-tale story might be true is that the pretender looks the part. If he doesn't, then the guy isn't the right material to play the role in the game.

No person in their right mind would work with somebody with the looks of Jon in the kind of game Varys and Illyrio are playing. Just as nobody would be using a black-haired boy as a Lannister pretender, a golden-haired child as Baratheon pretender, etc.

You have not been reading what I've written. I said that Varys might know who Jon actually is - and that if he does, he simply doesn't give shit about him because he looks the way he looks. He is of no use in Varys' game. Varys wants his plan to succeed, not invest a lot of time, money, and effort into a doomed pretender.

And Jon would have been a doomed pretender if anybody had put him forth as a pretender to the Iron Throne.

Whether he can take the throne on the basis of his own merits, deeds, heroics, connections to his aunt, etc. is a completely separate issue.

I disagree with both the messages you are conveying. First I disagree with your high esteem for Varys's omniscience. Varys does not know as much as some like to believe. There is no reason why he should know anything about Jon's true identity. Martin himself has been quoted that while Varys and Littlefinger both know compromising secrets about one another, Littlefinger knows more about Varys's true motivations than Varys knows about Littlefinger's. Already putting a nice dampener on the Varys worship that some tend to display.

And secondly, the strength of an heir's claim depends on who vouches for him. If more prominent lords vouch for a plain faced peasant boy than for a silver haired Lyseni orphan, then the plain faced peasant boy will win the throne.

Currently, Faegon hasn't won a single thing thanks to his looks. He has won part of the Stormlands due to Connington and the Golden Company, and he has apparently won Storm's End thanks to his guile. He will next win Dorne's allegiance thanks to Daenerys burning Quentyn Martell, forcing Doran to his side.

The looks aren't the determining factor. They are just a bonus. The looks mean nothing if he doesn't take the Throne by force of arms first, which he seems on his way to doing.

[Bloodraven's Spider]

3 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Ned very apparently not only where to go but also what to expect there, or else he wouldn't need to travel only with closest friends. That, however, doesn't mean that his source of information was Varys.

To my best knowledge, there has been zero indication whatsoever that Varys might know or suspect a thing. He knows a lot but unless he is a god, he cannot be omniscient, and having the character considered too stupid to play the game pull the wool over his eyes would be pure gold.

Yes you are right. Ned could have gotten the information from another source. The only possible one I could think of would be Pycelle who was in KL when it fall. Though I think Varys is a more likely candidate. He knew Aery's was going down in flames and needed a new start. He got that chance with Aegon. Aegon is the son of Lyanna and Rhaehar. Ned swapped Aegon for Jon when he got to Starfall. Varys knows.

[Lord Varys]

19 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I disagree with both the messages you are conveying. First I disagree with your high esteem for Varys's omniscience. Varys does not know as much as some like to believe. There is no reason why he should know anything about Jon's true identity. Martin himself has been quoted that while Varys and Littlefinger both know compromising secrets about one another, Littlefinger knows more about Varys's true motivations than Varys knows about Littlefinger's. Already putting a nice dampener on the Varys worship that some tend to display.

Varys was around during Robert's Rebellion. He would have kept his eye on Rhaegar and Lyanna. It is not all that difficult to figure this great mystery out. All Varys needed to do was to what the average reader does. Is it likely that Eddard Stark had a bastard? Were Rhaegar and Lyanna married? How did Lyanna Stark die? Why on earth were those Kingsguard there? And so on.

Varys would be pretty stupid to not suspect something. And that doesn't just extend to Varys but to many other contemporaries in crucial positions during the war.

19 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And secondly, the strength of an heir's claim depends on who vouches for him. If more prominent lords vouch for a plain faced peasant boy than for a silver haired Lyseni orphan, then the plain faced peasant boy will win the throne.

How do you know that? I say the strength of a claim depends on how many people declare for him, not how many prominent lords vouch for him. Having prominent lords helps you, too, but lords alone do not make kings. Swords and soldiers do. A successful pretender needs the people on his side, not just the lords.

19 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Currently, Faegon hasn't won a single thing thanks to his looks. He has won part of the Stormlands due to Connington and the Golden Company, and he has apparently won Storm's End thanks to his guile. He will next win Dorne's allegiance thanks to Daenerys burning Quentyn Martell, forcing Doran to his side.

Aegon will make use of his looks. He has announced that he'll wash his hair and declare himself and his intentions at Storm's End. And that will be the big tipping point.

19 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The looks aren't the determining factor. They are just a bonus. The looks mean nothing if he doesn't take the Throne by force of arms first, which he seems on his way to doing.

The people will take up their arms, rally to his banner, and shove him on the throne. He won't have to take anything. They will give it to him because they will worship him as a their savior. Because he is Rhaegar's son, and looks like his father.

[Free Northman Reborn]

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Varys was around during Robert's Rebellion. He would have kept his eye on Rhaegar and Lyanna. It is not all that difficult to figure this great mystery out. All Varys needed to do was to what the average reader does. Is it likely that Eddard Stark had a bastard? Were Rhaegar and Lyanna married? How did Lyanna Stark die? Why on earth were those Kingsguard there? And so on.

Varys would be pretty stupid to not suspect something. And that doesn't just extend to Varys but to many other contemporaries in crucial positions during the war.

How do you know that? I say the strength of a claim depends on how many people declare for him, not how many prominent lords vouch for him. Having prominent lords helps you, too, but lords alone do not make kings. Swords and soldiers do. A successful pretender needs the people on his side, not just the lords.

Aegon will make use of his looks. He has announced that he'll wash his hair and declare himself and his intentions at Storm's End. And that will be the big tipping point.

The people will take up their arms, rally to his banner, and shove him on the throne. He won't have to take anything. They will give it to him because they will worship him as a their savior. Because he is Rhaegar's son, and looks like his father.

What people? The peasants don't matter. It is the lords who matter.

[Nevets]

I expect Varys (and others) suspect, but they have no proof, and Ned isn't giving them anything to work with.  If you look carefully enough, it becomes apparent.  Make a time-line of events between Harrenhal and Robert's coronation, and it practically jumps out at you.

However, without some sort of proof, nobody is going to do anything.  Ned doesn't seem interested in a Targaryen restoration (just the opposite, in fact), Jon is ignorant of his heritage, and likely to stay that way, and they are all isolated in the North.  And when Jon joins the Night's watch, it no longer really matters.

[Lord Varys]

16 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

What people? The peasants don't matter. It is the lords who matter.

Not when we are talking about kings in the kind of scheme Varys has created here. Aegon is supposed to be worshiped as the savior of the people and the Seven Kingdoms because he represents everything that is good and great in this world. He is going to make things as they once were, in the idealized golden (Targaryen era) past.

He is not some kind of goon propped up to make common cause with some corrupt lords. He is set up to be loved by the people, and when the people love you they will die for you.

They will all bend their knees when they see Aegon's silver-golden hair and look into his purple eyes.

And the lords will follow the lead of their men. Or they will be swept away like leaves. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

Just now, Lord Varys said:

Not when we are talking about kings in the kind of scheme Varys has created here. Aegon is supposed to be worshiped as the savior of the people and the Seven Kingdoms because he represents everything that is good and great in this world. He is going to make things as they once were, in the idealized golden (Targaryen era) past.

He is not some kind of goon propped up to make common cause with some corrupt lords. He is set up to be loved by the people, and when the people love you they will die for you.

They will all bend their knees when they see Aegon's silver-golden hair and look into his purple eyes.

And the lords will follow the lead of their men. Or they will be swept away like leaves. 

Sorry, but that was laughable. Do you actually believe that, or were you trying to explain Varys's delusional hopes?

The lords being swept away by the commoners "like leaves" is not in the future of this story.

[Megorova]

23 hours ago, Bloodraven's Spider said:

Yes. Varys most likely told Ned where Lyanna was and knew why. You don't just stumble across the Tower of Joy it's In the middle of no where. 

Could be that when Rhaegar didn't returned after several months of absence, Lyanna sent raven to Winterfell. Could be that at that time Howland Reed was there. And when they got Lyanna's message, Howland went south to find Ned, and then they went to TofJ.

Could be that Howland has found Lyanna on his own. Maybe while Ned was fighting, Howland were looking for any threads to find Lyanna. Maybe he found out that amongst people, that supposedly participated in Lyanna's kidnapping, was Arthur Dayne. Thus Howland went to Starfall, and maybe spied after them from afar. Could be that people at Starfall were either receiving messages from Arthur, or they were sending food and other supplies to TofJ. Either way Howland followed that thread and that way found out Lyanna's whereabouts, and informed Ned.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

See above. Jon looks like a Stark. He is of no use in a Targaryen restoration scheme since his looks do not give his identity away. It won't be easy to convince people that Eddard Stark's bastard is actually a Targaryen prince - never mind, how good the evidence is.

Dragons can prove that Jon is Targaryen. If they will acknowledge him, then no one will doubt that he is dragonseed. Half-dragonseed and, based on his looks, half-Stark. Thus who may be his parents? A real mystery

People would have noticed, if in the middle of Robert's Rebellion, Eddard Stark sailed away from 7K to visit Essos and Lys, where was a lot of women with Valyrian blood. Thus he didn't. And the only woman with dragonblood, that lived in Westeros was Queen Rhaella Targaryen. At the time when Jon was conceived, she was still in Red Keep, guarded day and night by two Kingsguards (and on nights that she didn't spent with her husband, two handmaids were lying in her bed on both sides of her). And then she was sent to Dragonstone, also under guard. By the time when Jon was born, she was still at Dragonstone, furthermore - still pregnant. At both locations - Red Keep and Dragonstone, there was no male Starks near Queen Rhaella.

Thus possibility that Jon's mother is a dragonseed = 0.

Then the only option is that the one with dragonblood was his father, and the one with wolf's blood was his mother. In that generation there was only one female with Stark blood - Lyanna Stark (by the time of Robert's Rebellion, Lyanna's mother was already dead). And she was supposedly kidnapped by prince Rhaegar Targaryen, who was one of three male dragonseeds, that at that time lived in 7K. One of those three (Viserys) was to young to have children. The other one (King Aerys) was nowhere near Lyanna Stark, not at the time when Jon was conceived. Thus his father could be only Rhaegar Targaryen.

If dragons recognized as their kin, even Ben Plumm, even though he had in him maybe just a few insignificant percents of dragonblood, then they will definitely recognize Jon, who is 50% Targaryen, and share half of his genes with mother of those dragons.

If Jon will be accepted by dragons, then no further evidence will be needed. While fAegon is just a blond dude with blue eyes, and his only prove - JonCon - is not a prove at all. Many people in Essos have blond, golden, platinum-white, silver-gold or silver hair, and blue, indigo, purple, violet, or lilac eyes. And in Lys even beggars and bums have that coloring. Thus fAegon's looks alone can prove NOTHING.

So what is more reliable - testimony of JonCon, who met fAegon, when the boy was already five years old, or a dragon-DNA-test?

[Lord Varys]

44 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Sorry, but that was laughable. Do you actually believe that, or were you trying to explain Varys's delusional hopes?

The lords being swept away by the commoners "like leaves" is not in the future of this story.

You do not what a public movement is, right? There would be nobles and knights in such a movement, too, of course, but Aegon doesn't need a majority of them to take his throne. A broad enough public movement is all he needs. And he'll get that.

21 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Dragons can prove that Jon is Targaryen. If they will acknowledge him, then no one will doubt that he is dragonseed. Half-dragonseed and, based on his looks, half-Stark. Thus who may be his parents? A real mystery

That is an irrelevant point. Dragons were never part of Varys' plan, and I was talking about the reason why Varys - if he knows or suspects who Jon Snow is - completely ignores the boy in his schemes.

As to your general point:

Dragons don't prove anything. Imagine the likes of Brown Ben Plumm, Tyrion, Victarion, or Euron gaining one of Dany's dragons. Will all of them afterwards be seen as Targaryens? Most likely not. Brown Ben has Targaryen ancestors, and Tyrion might be Aerys' son, but them becoming dragonriders is not going to make them royal or members of the royal family.

A dragonriding Jon Snow could claim a dragon as a skinchanger (who may or may not have the ability to master dragons) not because he has dragonlord blood. Or people could believe he used spells and magic to accomplish that, as they most likely will do should Victarion or Euron - thanks to the magical horn Dragonbinder - ever become dragonriders.

But finally, there simply is the fact that Jon Snow could be nothing but another Brown Ben Plumm. Through his unknown mother he could be a descendant of Aegon the Unworthy or some other fertile Targaryen. Hell, that could even be the case through his Stark ancestry, considering that we don't have a complete family tree through the various female lines - not to mention the possibility that the legal father might not always be the biological father in all those family trees.

Vice versa, Prince Aegon becoming a dragonrider would also not prove his specific Targaryen ancestry. If he happened to be the (illegitimate) descendant of some Blackfyre through the female line he should have just as much potential to claim a dragon as Prince Rhaegar's trueborn son.

[zandru]

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Your obsession with Targ looks means they could grab any Lyseni whore's boy and proclaim him Rhaegar's long lost son. It's not about looks, since the looks don't distinguish you from a thousand Lyseni street urchins. It's about who vouches for the child.

An excellent point. Note that nobody questioned that Robert's golden haired, green-eyed children were actually black Baratheons.

41 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Dragons can prove that Jon is Targaryen. If they will acknowledge him, then no one will doubt that he is dragonseed.

That is, IF Jon has the "dragon gene." There's no certainty of that. The fact that he has the warging gene is probably irrelevant, because the Valyrians (and Targaryens) didn't "warg" their dragons. Bringing up Ben Plumm isn't at all definitive. Who would put Ben Plumm on the Iron Throne, on that basis?