Question Does Varys knows who Jon Snow really is?

[Lord Varys]

27 minutes ago, zandru said:

An excellent point. Note that nobody questioned that Robert's golden haired, green-eyed children were actually black Baratheons.

Because they were the children of Cersei Lannister, the queen at Robert's side. Nobody had any reason to assume they were not Robert's seed.

Just as nobody would suspect that Jon Snow and Aegon were the children of their respective parents (Rhaegar and Elia/Lyanna) if there was no reason to doubt they are who they (most likely) happen to be.

But the scenario we are talking about doesn't have Jon or Aegon as the children of their true parents, running around with them, do we?

27 minutes ago, zandru said:

That is, IF Jon has the "dragon gene." There's no certainty of that. The fact that he has the warging gene is probably irrelevant, because the Valyrians (and Targaryens) didn't "warg" their dragons. Bringing up Ben Plumm isn't at all definitive. Who would put Ben Plumm on the Iron Throne, on that basis?

Who would Eddard Stark's bastard on the Iron Throne on the basis of him being a dragonrider?

Jon being a skinchanger could most definitely play into him becoming a dragonrider. The fact that the Valyrian dragonlords bonded with their dragons with other magics doesn't mean that skinchangers can't use their mojo to do the same (or a similar) trick.

[Bloodraven's Spider]

You dont need Targaryen blood to be able to ride dragons. You need the blood of old valryia (it has mingled with the blood of the first men. Valyrian are part of the first men)

[Megorova]

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So when Ned returns to KL and reports that Lyanna is dead and that's the end of it, the fact that she did not produce a child should come as a huge relief/disappointment. But then Ned returns to Winterfell and news trickles out that the most honorable man in the kingdom fathered a bastard during the war, well, a supposedly smart man like Varys should be expected to put two and two together.

The thing is - prior Robert's Rebellion, Eddard Stark was no one. Second son of Warden of the North. There was four Wardens in 7K. And the other three were more significant than Rickard Stark.

Warden of the East - Arryns: 1. tree times intermarried with Targaryens, 2. Jeyne Arryn was one of sever regents of young King Aegon III, 3. first Warden of the East, young Ronnel Arryn, even flew together with Queen Visenya Targaryen on her dragon Vhagar. And The Vale is much closer to King's Landing than The North, and they even have international harbor, and frequently trade with Essos.

Warden of the South - Tyrells, Lords Paramounts of the richest and the most prosperous region of 7K.

Warden of the West - Lannisters: Tywin Lannister was King's Hand for a longer period of time, than any other Hand before him. And Lannisters have gold.

While the only significant post in Targaryen court, that Starks ever had, was King's Hand (Cregan Stark) for ONE day. And the only resource that northerners have in abundance is snow.

So back to Eddard Stark - second son of Rickard Stark, the least significant out of four Wardens of 7K. There was no reason for Varys to mind Ned, and even less reasons to spy after him. Prior Robert's Rebellion, probably only northerners, and some people at The Vale and Stormlands, personally knew Ned. He was a quiet guy, he was boring and insignificant. I doubt that any people were interested in analysing his personality, what is typical for him, and what is not. Thus after the war, when he has brought his bastard to Winterfell, no one was overthinking whether fathering a bastard is typical for Ned, or whether it means that something more is going on. Furthermore, Ned could have told in court, that Lyanna died long ago, shortly after Rhaegar kidnapped her. We don't know whether people in 7K knew that Lyanna died near the end of 283, or whether they think that she died in 282, or whether Rhaegar killed her in 283, prior going to participate in the war.

So basically there was no two and two for Varys to put them together. He doesn't know what we know. For him, prior Robert's Rebellion, Eddard Stark was too insignificant to be on Varys' radar. In span of rebellion, Ned was fighting in the war, and it's unlikely that Varys and his spies had an abbility to spy after every action of every person on the battlefield, and what they do in their free time. If Ned said to Robert, that Lyanna was long dead, then there was no reason for Varys to connect Lyanna's death, with appearance of Ned's bastard at Winterfell.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Varys was around during Robert's Rebellion. He would have kept his eye on Rhaegar and Lyanna. It is not all that difficult to figure this great mystery out. All Varys needed to do was to what the average reader does. Is it likely that Eddard Stark had a bastard? Were Rhaegar and Lyanna married? How did Lyanna Stark die? Why on earth were those Kingsguard there? And so on.

Varys can't do what the average reader does - we literally know what Eddard Stark was thinking, and what he was feeling. So Varys knows about Eddard, much lesser than we do. He knows about Eddard, not much more than other characters. And out of all characters, including his wife Catelyn, his brother Benjen, his heir Robb, and his best friend Robert, and Jon Snow himself, no one ever suspected, not even for a second, that Jon isn't Ned's son. So from where would Varys get those ideas, that Jon may be a secret Targaryen prince?

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The people will take up their arms, rally to his banner, and shove him on the throne. He won't have to take anything. They will give it to him because they will worship him as a their savior. Because he is Rhaegar's son, and looks like his father.

And then Dany will arrive to Westeros. Her dragons will instantly sniff out fAegon's fakeness, and then they will roast and eat him. Probably together with Varys.

[Megorova]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Imagine the likes of Brown Ben Plumm, Tyrion, Victarion, or Euron gaining one of Dany's dragons. Will all of them afterwards be seen as Targaryens? Most likely not.

That's because their mothers weren't crowned by Targaryen prince as Queens of Love and Beauty, and weren't kidnapped by him, prior date of their birth.

3 hours ago, zandru said:

Bringing up Ben Plumm isn't at all definitive. Who would put Ben Plumm on the Iron Throne, on that basis?

Ben's father wasn't Crown Prince of 7K, while Jon's father was. Which is what makes Jon a viable claimant of Iron Throne, and crown of 7K.

Quote

Dragons don't prove anything.

Dragons don't need to prove anything. If they will acknowledge Jon as dragonblood, and submit to him, then he can conquer Westeros, just like his ancestor did it 300 years ago.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Brown Ben has Targaryen ancestors, and Tyrion might be Aerys' son, but them becoming dragonriders is not going to make them royal or members of the royal family.

Probably you missed part, where Dany thought, that somewhere in this world, there are two men, to whom she can trust, those that will become her family, and probably her husbands.

3 hours ago, zandru said:

That is, IF Jon has the "dragon gene." There's no certainty of that.

There is.

1. He had prophetic/"dragon" dream - about him in black ice armor, with blazing Lightbringer, fighting against white walkers on The Wall.

2. When Melisandre asked R'hllor, to show her the Prince that was promised, the fire showed her Jon Snow. The woods witch said in her prophecy, that TPTWP will be born from Jaehaerys' line. And Jon, son of Rhaegar, is a descendant of Jaehaerys.

Jon's dragon-dream and Melisandre's fire-vision prove that Jon is dragonblood.

[Ygrain]

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Martin himself has been quoted that while Varys and Littlefinger both know compromising secrets about one another, Littlefinger knows more about Varys's true motivations than Varys knows about Littlefinger's.

I recall this one only vaguely, don't you happen to have  a link?

 

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And secondly, the strength of an heir's claim depends on who vouches for him. If more prominent lords vouch for a plain faced peasant boy than for a silver haired Lyseni orphan, then the plain faced peasant boy will win the throne.

Agreed. That's why fooling JonCon is crucial for Varys' plan.

9 hours ago, Bloodraven's Spider said:

Yes you are right. Ned could have gotten the information from another source. The only possible one I could think of would be Pycelle who was in KL when it fall. Though I think Varys is a more likely candidate. He knew Aery's was going down in flames and needed a new start. He got that chance with Aegon. Aegon is the son of Lyanna and Rhaehar. Ned swapped Aegon for Jon when he got to Starfall. Varys knows.

Unless Pycelle sniffed something out from his tampering with correspondence, he wouldn't have known. I think Ned's knowledge must have come from another source - Lyanna herself might have initiated some communication after Rhaegar's death, which made her position very precarious. The mysterious Ashara Dayne may have played a role. Ethan Glover, who somehow survived Aerys' killing spree and accompanied Ned to ToJ for some reason, may have been used as Rhaegar's contingency plan to help Lyanna. Or yet someone/ something else.

Thinking about Varys: aside from there being no indication of such an action on his part, there are a couple more problems. If Varys wants to protect the Targaryens, why tell Ned at all? Can he be sure that Ned will play along? Wouldn't it be better to arrange the safety of Lyanna's child with the known Targ loyalists? And if Varys doesn't care about the Targs, then why tell Ned and not Robert? It is the new king that Varys needs to curry favour with, not a lord who has just had a huge falling out with the said king. (yet, no such thing is ever mentioned, because Robert would have mentioned how he should have gone with Ned to see Lyanna one last time). And finally, what has already been mentioned upthread: if Varys does have the knowledge, then he shows remarkably little action, or even interest, in this department. What does he do when he needs to coerce Ned into cooperation? Threatens him with Sansa's execution (which others PoVs never show as a plan), instead of bringing up that one big secret which would have broken Ned's neck. That, IMHO, shows that Varys has absolutely no idea, or else he would have played this ace.

[Free Northman Reborn]

17 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

I recall this one only vaguely, don't you happen to have  a link?

 

Yeah. I read it fairly recently, but it doesn't come up with a casual google search. It's definitely a SSM quote, though. I'll try to search some more and will post it if I find it.

[Back door hodor]

Hi all...some really good analysis in this thread and I'm just going to reiterate before I add that I agree that even we the reader don't know for sure who Jons parents are, and I have no reason to believe any other than Ned and howland know.

I honestly base this on Varys's interactions with Ned in agot, nothing specific just a feeling

[Shmedricko]

35 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

I recall this one only vaguely, don't you happen to have  a link?

17 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Yeah. I read it fairly recently, but it doesn't come up with a casual google search. It's definitely a SSM quote, though. I'll try to search some more and will post it if I find it.

Here it is:

INTERVIEWER: How would you describe Littlefinger and Varys' relationship?

GRRM: Adversarial. Both of them know a lot about the other one, including some very damaging things. So they're in, essentially, a stalemate, because each one knows that if he revealed what he knew about the other one, then the other one would reciprocate and they could both be destroyed. So they're kind of locked in a certain stalemate. I think Littlefinger has a better idea of what Varys wants than Varys has an idea of what Littlefinger wants. Littlefinger is an agent of chaos who likes to be unpredictable and succeeds in that.

-JUEGOS DE TRONOS de George R.R Martin en la FIL de Guadalajara 2016 (11:12)

[Varysblackfyre321]

If R+L= J is true and he does(which is unlikely),  he'd pay it no mind. I honestly think given they'd already to convince the world this Targyen looking boy is Aegon-what suddenly there's another secret orphan prince who doesn't even  look Targ? Hell, Jon's claim (if true) about being a long lost prince would possibly make people more dubious of Aegon's.

If Pyp is one of Vary's little birds as some suspect, maybe the boy was tasked into getting close to Jon and making sure he stays in the watch

[AlaskanSandman]

13 minutes ago, Shmedricko said:

Here it is:

INTERVIEWER: How would you describe Littlefinger and Varys' relationship?

GRRM: Adversarial. Both of them know a lot about the other one, including some very damaging things. So they're in, essentially, a stalemate, because each one knows that if he revealed what he knew about the other one, then the other one would reciprocate and they could both be destroyed. So they're kind of locked in a certain stalemate. I think Littlefinger has a better idea of what Varys wants than Varys has an idea of what Littlefinger wants. Littlefinger is an agent of chaos who likes to be unpredictable and succeeds in that.

-JUEGOS DE TRONOS de George R.R Martin en la FIL de Guadalajara 2016 (11:12)

This could be it's own thread, just saying.

What do they know about each other? What could they know? Easiest thing Varys could have on LF is that LF killed Jon Arryn with Lysa Tully, though to what end Varys doesn't know. Other than it throws off his plans.

What could LF have on Varys? Only thing we really know of Varys doing that would be viewed as bad and something to kill him over is his protecting Aegon Targaryen. LF can't know of a fake hidden in Essos imo so it has to be that he knows Varys got out the real Aegon. 

Or not. Like i said, this could easily be a thread of it's own. People may have way different ideas or more thought into this.

Why is what Varys want's easier to figure out than what LF wants. Varys want's to put some one on the throne as far as we know. LF wants the throne. I dont see what's so hard off hand. So definitely would love others thoughts into this. 

[AlaskanSandman]

5 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

If R+L= J is true and he does(which is unlikely),  he'd pay it no mind. I honestly think given they'd already to convince the world this Targyen looking boy is Aegon-what suddenly there's another secret orphan prince who doesn't even  look Targ? Hell, Jon's claim (if true) about being a long lost prince would possibly make people more dubious of Aegon's.

Why would Jon even stake his claim? Why would Jon feel adequate at ruling a kingdom when his own men murdered him? Why would Jon care when everything he has known and loved is in the North. There is no reason Jon would care about the southern kingdoms enough to go rival Aegon. No matter who is who.

[Varysblackfyre321]

11 minutes ago, AlaskanSandman said:

Why would Jon even stake his claim? Why would Jon feel adequate at ruling a kingdom when his own men murdered him? Why would Jon care when everything he has known and loved is in the North. There is no reason Jon would care about the southern kingdoms enough to go rival Aegon. No matter who is who.

Why are you acting as though Varys could know any of that?  He hasn't read Jon's Pov chapters in ASOIAF. He'd no certainty on what the boy truly wants or feels. What he'd most likely see is that Jon could  add needless scrutiny to Aegon's claim and ultimately isn't someone he could use.

Not everyone would settle for Jon's current position in the north and the north-some(a lot) of people would be more motivated to move up and get more if they knew they were royalty.

[AlaskanSandman]

1 minute ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Why are you acting as though Varys could know any of that?  He hasn't read Jon's Pov chapters in ASOIAF. He'd no certainty on what the boy truly wants or feels. What he'd most likely see is that Jon could  add needless scrutiny to Aegon's claim and ultimately isn't someone he could use. 

Huh? What did i say about Varys having anything to do with Jon Snow? Or needing information from Jon pov's? To know that LF killed Jon Arryn? 

[AlaskanSandman]

2 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Why are you acting as though Varys could know any of that?  He hasn't read Jon's Pov chapters in ASOIAF. He'd no certainty on what the boy truly wants or feels. What he'd most likely see is that Jon could  add needless scrutiny to Aegon's claim and ultimately isn't someone he could use. 

Oh never, sorry i though you were responding to the other quote hahah my bad. 

As far as what Varys would assume about Jon had he known who Jon is? Believing that crap Rhaegar theory? Id imagine nothing. Jons sworn to the Watch. There is nothing for him to do. He'll be murdered by his own men for even trying to go against Aegon.

[Free Northman Reborn]

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Not when we are talking about kings in the kind of scheme Varys has created here. Aegon is supposed to be worshiped as the savior of the people and the Seven Kingdoms because he represents everything that is good and great in this world. He is going to make things as they once were, in the idealized golden (Targaryen era) past.

He is not some kind of goon propped up to make common cause with some corrupt lords. He is set up to be loved by the people, and when the people love you they will die for you.

They will all bend their knees when they see Aegon's silver-golden hair and look into his purple eyes.

And the lords will follow the lead of their men. Or they will be swep away like leaves. 

Talking about Varys, I'm not actually clear on what his motivations are. We suspect we know why Illyrio is supporting fAegon. But with Varys things don't seem to tie up.

Why would he want to bring a fake Targaryen back? He doesn't believe that things were better under the Targaryens. Based on his monologue to the dying Kevan, he claims that he wants greater social justice. But why do you need a Targ for this, rather than say a pliable young Tommen, or Edrick Storm?

I don't think Varys really gives two hoots about the Targaryen dynasty as such. Particularly not its connection with sorcery, which he professes to hate. And if that is the case, then if he really wants a better life for the common folk, I don't see what made Robert's reign any worse than that of Aerys.

So why the elobrate plan to destabilize the realm, leading to wars and famine killing hundreds of thousands of common folk, just to replace one dynasty with another? It doesn't make sense.

[1000th Lord Commander]

Most people tend to assume Varys is omniscient, but in the end, he is only human. His informants would focus on Dany and Viserys, The Citadel, Dorne. Areas where rebellion or subverting the rule of the Crown is more likely. I don't believe he knows about Jon, because he, like the rest of Westeros, has never doubted the story of Jon's parentage. There is no reason to suspect anything

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Talking about Varys, I'm not actually clear on what his motivations are. We suspect we know why Illyrio is supporting fAegon. But with Varys things don't seem to tie up.

Why would he want to bring a fake Targaryen back? He doesn't believe that things were better under the Targaryens. Based on his monologue to the dying Kevan, he claims that he wants greater social justice. But why do you need a Targ for this, rather than say a pliable young Tommen, or Edrick Storm?

I don't think Varys really gives two hoots about the Targaryen dynasty as such. Particularly not its connection with sorcery, which he professes to hate. And if that is the case, then if he really wants a better life for the common folk, I don't see what made Robert's reign any worse than that of Aerys.

So why the elobrate plan to destabilize the realm, leading to wars and famine killing hundreds of thousands of common folk, just to replace one dynasty with another? It doesn't make sense.

Maybe given he's actively tried to bring instability in the country-he's just bullshiting when he's saying he's doing it for the realm -saying what suits his interests. I'm in agreement with the idea of Viserys having Blackfyre lineage.

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, Megorova said:

Varys can't do what the average reader does - we literally know what Eddard Stark was thinking, and what he was feeling. So Varys knows about Eddard, much lesser than we do. He knows about Eddard, not much more than other characters. And out of all characters, including his wife Catelyn, his brother Benjen, his heir Robb, and his best friend Robert, and Jon Snow himself, no one ever suspected, not even for a second, that Jon isn't Ned's son. So from where would Varys get those ideas, that Jon may be a secret Targaryen prince?

We don't need Ned's thoughts to figure out - or suspect - the truth of Jon Snow's parentage. All we need is the circumstantial evidence Varys has access to in much greater detail. He was King Aerys II's Master of Whisperers. He would have known what Aerys and Rhaella knew about Rhaegar and Lyanna. He may have known that they were married, he may have learned that Lyanna was pregnant when Rhaegar returned to court.

From there it is not all that far to conclude the cause of Lyanna Stark's death. And then this awfully convenient motherless bastard son of Eddard Stark's shows up. It is not difficult to connect the dots, especially if you have more information on the events happening at the tower of joy than we do at this moment. Ned would have had to tell a story about his sister's death, and the fate of the Kingsguard there.

This is not exactly a super secret or anything. It is easy to figure out what was going on there, even if you don't have proof that this is the case. And Varys is one of the people who might have been able to figure it out from the start. He most definitely would have had he decided to investigate Ned's story later on - say, by having agents of his investigate what happened at Starfall.

And by the way: While we do know that Cat, Robb, and Jon don't suspect that Jon isn't Ned's son, we have no clue whatsoever what Benjen or Robert thought on the matter, nor do we know what other people think of his parentage. It never comes up. But that doesn't mean all people buy Ned's story.

8 hours ago, Megorova said:

And then Dany will arrive to Westeros. Her dragons will instantly sniff out fAegon's fakeness, and then they will roast and eat him. Probably together with Varys.

LOL, no.

Or rather: Not if the idea that Varys himself and Aegon, too, are Targaryen descendants through the Blackfyre side of the family is true. If Aegon happened to be Illyrio's son by this Serra woman - and Illyrio himself happened to be a Blackfyre descendant through the female line (or the Serra woman) - and if Varys, too, was castrated by this sorcerer because he was a legitimate or illegitimate Blackfyre descendant, then both Varys and Aegon should be as popular with Dany's dragons as Brown Ben Plumm is.

Dragons prove nothing in this regard. Nothing at all.

But then - people in their stupidity might interpret Aegon becoming a dragonrider as 'proof' that he is Rhaegar's son when he in fact is nothing but a very distant cousin of Prince Rhaegar's. After all, Aegon looks like Rhaegar. Jon doesn't.

8 hours ago, Megorova said:

That's because their mothers weren't crowned by Targaryen prince as Queens of Love and Beauty, and weren't kidnapped by him, prior date of their birth.

Newsflash: There is no proof that Lyanna Stark is Jon Snow's mother, is there? We are talking about why Varys would completely ignore Jon in his Targaryen schemes. The reason is that he doesn't look the part - and, perhaps even more importantly, that Ned Stark destroyed his worth as a pretender immediately after his birth by disguising him as his bastard son.

If the Realm at large had learned and come to accept the fact that there was another Targaryen pretender out there in Rhaegar Targaryen's son by his second wife Lyanna Stark, then said child could have had the potential to become a pawn in a game like Varys'. But that never happened. And it would have been exceedingly difficult to make it happen after Ned made Jon his son.

There are some hints that Varys may have intended to recruit Ned to his Aegon/Targaryen plan in AGoT, but since Jon was already at the Wall at that time - and quite superfluous in light of the fact that Varys and Illyrio were building up their Aegon - chances are not that great that he was interested in including Jon in his plans.

But then - who knows? It might happen in the future. Aegon claims to be Rhaegar's son. If he still rules and lives by the time the news about Jon's parentage are revealed those two half-brothers might reach out to each other.

8 hours ago, Megorova said:

Dragons don't need to prove anything. If they will acknowledge Jon as dragonblood, and submit to him, then he can conquer Westeros, just like his ancestor did it 300 years ago.

Or the men he wants to fight with slay or poison him because they see him as a bastard upstart. Just look at the fate of the Two Betrayers.

8 hours ago, Megorova said:

Probably you missed part, where Dany thought, that somewhere in this world, there are two men, to whom she can trust, those that will become her family, and probably her husbands.

Sure, but that would mean that Dany ends up marrying the men who are going to claim the other two dragons in the near future - which do include Brown Ben, Tyrion, and Victarion. Jon Snow isn't part of that list. And should one of those dragonriders betray Dany and die, so that Jon can eventually claim one of her dragons, she is not likely going to be in all that much of a trusting mood. If one dragonrider can betray her, so can another, right?

Besides, this is a completely irrelevant point. Being a dragonrider doesn't prove anything aside from the fact that you are, most likely, some dragonlord's distant descendant. It doesn't mean you are Rhaegar's son or a royal prince.

4 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Agreed. That's why fooling JonCon is crucial for Varys' plan.

He is crucial for the plan, but the difference between Aegon and Jon is that Aegon looks like Rhaegar's son and actually claims to be a son of Rhaegar's the people of Westeros actually knew existed. Nobody even knows the name of the son Rhaegar and Lyanna may have had.

4 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Unless Pycelle sniffed something out from his tampering with correspondence, he wouldn't have known. I think Ned's knowledge must have come from another source - Lyanna herself might have initiated some communication after Rhaegar's death, which made her position very precarious. The mysterious Ashara Dayne may have played a role. Ethan Glover, who somehow survived Aerys' killing spree and accompanied Ned to ToJ for some reason, may have been used as Rhaegar's contingency plan to help Lyanna. Or yet someone/ something else.

There is no need for conspiracy theory or vast theorizing here since there is no need to assume that the whereabouts of Lyanna Stark and the Kingsguard protecting her were a secret at court after Rhaegar's return.

Ned could have learned where Lyanna was from pretty much anyone.

4 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Thinking about Varys: aside from there being no indication of such an action on his part, there are a couple more problems. If Varys wants to protect the Targaryens, why tell Ned at all?

There is no reason to believe that Varys wants to protect the Targaryens. He cares about them - or perhaps only about the Targaryen name - as means to an end. 

And you also do recall that Ned wouldn't have been asking Varys about the whereabouts of some Targaryens, but rather the whereabouts of the Lady Lyanna Stark, his own beloved sister... There is little reason for him to keep that a secret, especially not since he already has Aegon at that point, right? Or made the plan to create his own Aegon.

4 hours ago, Ygrain said:

And if Varys doesn't care about the Targs, then why tell Ned and not Robert? It is the new king that Varys needs to curry favour with, not a lord who has just had a huge falling out with the said king. (yet, no such thing is ever mentioned, because Robert would have mentioned how he should have gone with Ned to see Lyanna one last time).

It may have been Robert who also talked to Varys about Lyanna's whereabouts. You do recall that the man was injured at the Trident, and thus perhaps not exactly in the shape to travel to Dorne? But then - perhaps he wanted to go along but Ned made it clear that he wouldn't suffer him coming with him after their falling out.

This was no insignificant fallout - we don't know what would have happened had Lyanna lived. Perhaps Ned would have taken her and the child to Sunspear or Dragonstone, declaring for the Targaryens in the process of that?

It is only Lyanna's death and the shared grief that restores Ned and Robert's friendship.

4 hours ago, Ygrain said:

And finally, what has already been mentioned upthread: if Varys does have the knowledge, then he shows remarkably little action, or even interest, in this department. What does he do when he needs to coerce Ned into cooperation? Threatens him with Sansa's execution (which others PoVs never show as a plan), instead of bringing up that one big secret which would have broken Ned's neck. That, IMHO, shows that Varys has absolutely no idea, or else he would have played this ace.

How could have used that secret at that point? Jon Snow is at the Wall, as politically insignificant as Maester Aemon. Up there he is pretty much safe - threatening Sansa who is there, in KL, is much safer.

And besides - you also do recall that we never witness Varys' final conversation with our dear Ned. His last chapter ends with the threat to Sansa's life, then we cut to his execution from Arya's POV. We don't know what Varys and Ned talked about when Ned finally gave in to the threat and agreed to confess his treason. They would have talked about something.

There is also a reason why George had Ned bring up that whole thing about writing a letter in that chapter. It might turn out to lead nowhere, but the potential that Ned told (or confirmed) crucial things in his conversations with Varys is by no means far-fetched.

George didn't intend to give us very big clues - or outright revelations - on the Jon Snow thing in AGoT. But he certainly could have put some subtle seeds in those chapters, seeds that will carry fruit later down the road.

3 hours ago, Shmedricko said:

Here it is:

INTERVIEWER: How would you describe Littlefinger and Varys' relationship?

GRRM: Adversarial. Both of them know a lot about the other one, including some very damaging things. So they're in, essentially, a stalemate, because each one knows that if he revealed what he knew about the other one, then the other one would reciprocate and they could both be destroyed. So they're kind of locked in a certain stalemate. I think Littlefinger has a better idea of what Varys wants than Varys has an idea of what Littlefinger wants. Littlefinger is an agent of chaos who likes to be unpredictable and succeeds in that.

-JUEGOS DE TRONOS de George R.R Martin en la FIL de Guadalajara 2016 (11:12)

The context one should consider here is that Varys is more transparent insofar as he actually wants to keep/restore peace and order in the Seven Kingdoms. That's his ultimate goal, and that's not that difficult to figure out. But that doesn't mean we should assume Littlefinger knows about the Aegon plan, etc.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Why would he want to bring a fake Targaryen back? He doesn't believe that things were better under the Targaryens. Based on his monologue to the dying Kevan, he claims that he wants greater social justice. But why do you need a Targ for this, rather than say a pliable young Tommen, or Edrick Storm?

The idea is that Varys and/or Illyrio are Blackfyre descendants through the female line. Illyrio is Aegon's true father, and they want their blood on the Iron Throne. They have a personal motivation there.

They use the Targaryen name because it is the royal name of the Seven Kingdoms, the name that can unite the Realm again. The Blackfyre cause is dead and gone, and they can only succeed if they hide behind the red dragon.

The idea that material like Tommen or Edric Storm can do the same thing is pretty much insane. Those are bastards and pretenders, without the royal looks or the royal name.

Varys knows how the Westerosi people think. That's why he has come up with the Aegon plan. When all goes to hell people want to believe that King Arthur is going to come back from Avalon to save them all. That's what he is giving them.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I don't think Varys really gives two hoots about the Targaryen dynasty as such. Particularly not its connection with sorcery, which he professes to hate. And if that is the case, then if he really wants a better life for the common folk, I don't see what made Robert's reign any worse than that of Aerys.

Well, a King Aegon VI may be set up to continue the reforms of his famous ancestor and predecessor, Aegon V.

Robert's reign was a corrupt madhouse. The smallfolk and the Realm were way better off during (most of) the reign of Aerys II - not due to that man's competence, of course, but Tywin's, but people still credit the king with everything good, not his officials.

We see it from ACoK on how the people start to idealize the good old days of the old king - Aerys II, not Robert Baratheon.

If Varys himself is a Targaryen descendant, then the Targaryen connection to sorcery and magic would be his own. He might hate magic and those who practice it, but that doesn't mean he hates himself or his family.

2 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So why the elobrate plan to destabilize the realm, leading to wars and famine killing hundreds of thousands of common folk, just to replace one dynasty with another? It doesn't make sense.

It makes, if you compare it to the approach of Ozymandias in 'Watchmen'. Robert's Rebellion destabilized the kingdom, moving Westeros closer to the days of the warring Seven Kingdoms of old than they have been in centuries. We see this happening when Robert dies - Varys doesn't cause the War of the Five Kings, in fact, he tries to prevent or at least postpone it. It happens on its own, because the men in charge are all overly ambitious, and care only about their personal agendas.

By allowing a kingdom to descend into chaos while having a cure up his sleeve Varys can create a lasting peace if he plays his cards right. Prince Aegon is set up to become another Jaehaerys the Conciliator, creating a peace that might last for a hundred years. 

The idea that this could have worked with a men like Stannis or Renly, or some children with dubious claims or ancestry simply doesn't hold much water.

[Free Northman Reborn]

28 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We don't need Ned's thoughts to figure out - or suspect - the truth of Jon Snow's parentage. All we need is the circumstantial evidence Varys has access to in much greater detail. He was King Aerys II's Master of Whisperers. He would have known what Aerys and Rhaella knew about Rhaegar and Lyanna. He may have known that they were married, he may have learned that Lyanna was pregnant when Rhaegar returned to court.

From there it is not all that far to conclude the cause of Lyanna Stark's death. And then this awfully convenient motherless bastard son of Eddard Stark's shows up. It is not difficult to connect the dots, especially if you have more information on the events happening at the tower of joy than we do at this moment. Ned would have had to tell a story about his sister's death, and the fate of the Kingsguard there.

This is not exactly a super secret or anything. It is easy to figure out what was going on there, even if you don't have proof that this is the case. And Varys is one of the people who might have been able to figure it out from the start. He most definitely would have had he decided to investigate Ned's story later on - say, by having agents of his investigate what happened at Starfall.

And by the way: While we do know that Cat, Robb, and Jon don't suspect that Jon isn't Ned's son, we have no clue whatsoever what Benjen or Robert thought on the matter, nor do we know what other people think of his parentage. It never comes up. But that doesn't mean all people buy Ned's story.

LOL, no.

Or rather: Not if the idea that Varys himself and Aegon, too, are Targaryen descendants through the Blackfyre side of the family is true. If Aegon happened to be Illyrio's son by this Serra woman - and Illyrio himself happened to be a Blackfyre descendant through the female line (or the Serra woman) - and if Varys, too, was castrated by this sorcerer because he was a legitimate or illegitimate Blackfyre descendant, then both Varys and Aegon should be as popular with Dany's dragons as Brown Ben Plumm is.

Dragons prove nothing in this regard. Nothing at all.

But then - people in their stupidity might interpret Aegon becoming a dragonrider as 'proof' that he is Rhaegar's son when he in fact is nothing but a very distant cousin of Prince Rhaegar's. After all, Aegon looks like Rhaegar. Jon doesn't.

Newsflash: There is no proof that Lyanna Stark is Jon Snow's mother, is there? We are talking about why Varys would completely ignore Jon in his Targaryen schemes. The reason is that he doesn't look the part - and, perhaps even more importantly, that Ned Stark destroyed his worth as a pretender immediately after his birth by disguising him as his bastard son.

If the Realm at large had learned and come to accept the fact that there was another Targaryen pretender out there in Rhaegar Targaryen's son by his second wife Lyanna Stark, then said child could have had the potential to become a pawn in a game like Varys'. But that never happened. And it would have been exceedingly difficult to make it happen after Ned made Jon his son.

There are some hints that Varys may have intended to recruit Ned to his Aegon/Targaryen plan in AGoT, but since Jon was already at the Wall at that time - and quite superfluous in light of the fact that Varys and Illyrio were building up their Aegon - chances are not that great that he was interested in including Jon in his plans.

But then - who knows? It might happen in the future. Aegon claims to be Rhaegar's son. If he still rules and lives by the time the news about Jon's parentage are revealed those two half-brothers might reach out to each other.

Or the men he wants to fight with slay or poison him because they see him as a bastard upstart. Just look at the fate of the Two Betrayers.

Sure, but that would mean that Dany ends up marrying the men who are going to claim the other two dragons in the near future - which do include Brown Ben, Tyrion, and Victarion. Jon Snow isn't part of that list. And should one of those dragonriders betray Dany and die, so that Jon can eventually claim one of her dragons, she is not likely going to be in all that much of a trusting mood. If one dragonrider can betray her, so can another, right?

Besides, this is a completely irrelevant point. Being a dragonrider doesn't prove anything aside from the fact that you are, most likely, some dragonlord's distant descendant. It doesn't mean you are Rhaegar's son or a royal prince.

He is crucial for the plan, but the difference between Aegon and Jon is that Aegon looks like Rhaegar's son and actually claims to be a son of Rhaegar's the people of Westeros actually knew existed. Nobody even knows the name of the son Rhaegar and Lyanna may have had.

There is no need for conspiracy theory or vast theorizing here since there is no need to assume that the whereabouts of Lyanna Stark and the Kingsguard protecting her were a secret at court after Rhaegar's return.

Ned could have learned where Lyanna was from pretty much anyone.

There is no reason to believe that Varys wants to protect the Targaryens. He cares about them - or perhaps only about the Targaryen name - as means to an end. 

And you also do recall that Ned wouldn't have been asking Varys about the whereabouts of some Targaryens, but rather the whereabouts of the Lady Lyanna Stark, his own beloved sister... There is little reason for him to keep that a secret, especially not since he already has Aegon at that point, right? Or made the plan to create his own Aegon.

It may have been Robert who also talked to Varys about Lyanna's whereabouts. You do recall that the man was injured at the Trident, and thus perhaps not exactly in the shape to travel to Dorne? But then - perhaps he wanted to go along but Ned made it clear that he wouldn't suffer him coming with him after their falling out.

This was no insignificant fallout - we don't know what would have happened had Lyanna lived. Perhaps Ned would have taken her and the child to Sunspear or Dragonstone, declaring for the Targaryens in the process of that?

It is only Lyanna's death and the shared grief that restores Ned and Robert's friendship.

How could have used that secret at that point? Jon Snow is at the Wall, as politically insignificant as Maester Aemon. Up there he is pretty much safe - threatening Sansa who is there, in KL, is much safer.

And besides - you also do recall that we never witness Varys' final conversation with our dear Ned. His last chapter ends with the threat to Sansa's life, then we cut to his execution from Arya's POV. We don't know what Varys and Ned talked about when Ned finally gave in to the threat and agreed to confess his treason. They would have talked about something.

There is also a reason why George had Ned bring up that whole thing about writing a letter in that chapter. It might turn out to lead nowhere, but the potential that Ned told (or confirmed) crucial things in his conversations with Varys is by no means far-fetched.

George didn't intend to give us very big clues - or outright revelations - on the Jon Snow thing in AGoT. But he certainly could have put some subtle seeds in those chapters, seeds that will carry fruit later down the road.

The context one should consider here is that Varys is more transparent insofar as he actually wants to keep/restore peace and order in the Seven Kingdoms. That's his ultimate goal, and that's not that difficult to figure out. But that doesn't mean we should assume Littlefinger knows about the Aegon plan, etc.

The idea is that Varys and/or Illyrio are Blackfyre descendants through the female line. Illyrio is Aegon's true father, and they want their blood on the Iron Throne. They have a personal motivation there.

They use the Targaryen name because it is the royal name of the Seven Kingdoms, the name that can unite the Realm again. The Blackfyre cause is dead and gone, and they can only succeed if they hide behind the red dragon.

The idea that material like Tommen or Edric Storm can do the same thing is pretty much insane. Those are bastards and pretenders, without the royal looks or the royal name.

Varys knows how the Westerosi people think. That's why he has come up with the Aegon plan. When all goes to hell people want to believe that King Arthur is going to come back from Avalon to save them all. That's what he is giving them.

Well, a King Aegon VI may be set up to continue the reforms of his famous ancestor and predecessor, Aegon V.

Robert's reign was a corrupt madhouse. The smallfolk and the Realm were way better off during (most of) the reign of Aerys II - not due to that man's competence, of course, but Tywin's, but people still credit the king with everything good, not his officials.

We see it from ACoK on how the people start to idealize the good old days of the old king - Aerys II, not Robert Baratheon.

If Varys himself is a Targaryen descendant, then the Targaryen connection to sorcery and magic would be his own. He might hate magic and those who practice it, but that doesn't mean he hates himself or his family.

It makes, if you compare it to the approach of Ozymandias in 'Watchmen'. Robert's Rebellion destabilized the kingdom, moving Westeros closer to the days of the warring Seven Kingdoms of old than they have been in centuries. We see this happening when Robert dies - Varys doesn't cause the War of the Five Kings, in fact, he tries to prevent or at least postpone it. It happens on its own, because the men in charge are all overly ambitious, and care only about their personal agendas.

By allowing a kingdom to descend into chaos while having a cure up his sleeve Varys can create a lasting peace if he plays his cards right. Prince Aegon is set up to become another Jaehaerys the Conciliator, creating a peace that might last for a hundred years. 

The idea that this could have worked with a men like Stannis or Renly, or some children with dubious claims or ancestry simply doesn't hold much water.

The idea that Varys is of Blackfyre descent is new to me, and would of course explain his motivation. I must admit I am not aware of any evidence to that effect, however.

In the absence of such a selfish motivation (a personal blood link to fAegon), I don't see any reason why fAegon would be a better option to achieve Varys's professed social justice goals as shared with Kevan. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

3 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The idea that Varys is of Blackfyre descent is new to me, and would of course explain his motivation. I must admit I am not aware of any evidence to that effect, however.

In the absence of such a selfish motivation (a personal blood link to fAegon), I don't see any reason why fAegon would be a better option to achieve Varys's professed social justice goals as shared with Kevan. 

Really? Have you ever read the "Dunk and Egg" stories? Aegon V who'd shaved his head to blend in looks pretty much a pint sized version of Varys and the whole story comes on the immediate aftermath of the first Blackfyre rebellion.

Varys doesn't care about justice-he can say he's doing this for some grand purpose-from his actual actions we could extrapolate he's most likely lying.