Question Does Varys knows who Jon Snow really is?

[Ygrain]

7 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The idea that Varys is of Blackfyre descent is new to me, and would of course explain his motivation. I must admit I am not aware of any evidence to that effect, however.

Try to search the forums for some older threads on this - it's not a 100% conclusive but it could be correct. There is quite some infodump on the Blackfyres in the text, the very specific mention of them being extinct in male line... the theory does have some substance and as an explanation of Varys' motivation it is plausible.

[Free Northman Reborn]

4 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Try to search the forums for some older threads on this - it's not a 100% conclusive but it could be correct. There is quite some infodump on the Blackfyres in the text, the very specific mention of them being extinct in male line... the theory does have some substance and as an explanation of Varys' motivation it is plausible.

Sure. I thought that was to allow for Ilyrio's concubine (fAegon's mother), to be a Blackfyre. Not sure where the evidence for Varys being related to them comes from. Aegon shaving his head for a while is really a flimsy link at best.

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The idea that Varys is of Blackfyre descent is new to me, and would of course explain his motivation. I must admit I am not aware of any evidence to that effect, however.

You can keep that tidbit out of the whole thing. He could also be some other Targaryen descendant. But he has to have a personal motivation as to why he is working with Illyrio of all people - and, much more importantly, why the hell he took it upon himself to risk his life daily at the court of Aerys II (and later Robert Baratheon) when he could just as well have enjoyed the remainder of his life at some vast estate in Pentos.

Varys isn't even Westerosi by birth, as far as we know. Why is focusing on the Seven Kingdoms and not, say, the unification of the Free Cities and his and Illyrio's rule?

The best way to explain this kind of thing is to assume he has a deep personal - likely a family - connection to the Seven Kingdoms.

4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

In the absence of such a selfish motivation (a personal blood link to fAegon), I don't see any reason why fAegon would be a better option to achieve Varys's professed social justice goals as shared with Kevan. 

Illyrio's own personal motivation would be enough as to why they use Aegon. If the boy isn't Rhaegar's son it is very likely that he is Illyrio's son. And Illyrio would only use him in this game of his if Westeros and the Iron Throne would matter to him - which they are only likely to do if he thinks he and his ancestors (the Blackfyres) had anything to do with all that.

But with Varys we have to keep in mind that Aegon is also a means to an end. He wants him to be this great king he paints for the dying Kevan. Illyrio might be very much invested in his son becoming king - but Varys might turn against Aegon should he ever reach the conclusion that the lad isn't going to do what he is supposed to do.

That's when Varys could actually work rather well with either Daenerys or Jon Snow, or both. After all, in the very long run these two are likely to be the people who might bring real social change to Westeros.

[Lord Varys]

Just now, Free Northman Reborn said:

Sure. I thought that was to allow for Ilyrio's concubine (fAegon's) mother, to be a Blackfyre. Not sure where the evidence for Varys being related to them comes from. Aegon shaving his head for a while is really a flimsy link at best.

Varys has been theorized to have Targaryen ancestry since, well, forever. Since we realized that he was the guy Illyrio spoke with in AGoT.

The idea that the Serra woman has Blackfyre ancestors isn't exactly favored by me. She was a whore, and the Lysene whores all have Valyrian features. She may have been used only to ensure that Illyrio produce a son looking like Prince Rhaegar's son - and I think she wouldn't have been the only woman Illyrio impregnated. Just the one who gave him a son he could use for the plan.

Illyrio is the one who has arranged a pact written in blood with the Golden Company. He controls and directs their every move. It makes no sense that he could do that if he is just some guy who was married to a Blackfyre-turned-whore.

But if Illyrio himself was a Blackfyre descendant then this all makes a lot of sense. It could also work with Serra but then he and Varys would do stuff basically for the sake of a dead woman - not all that believable, especially since Illyrio could also just raise Aegon as his own son, actually being a father for the boy.

The crucial hint as to where the Blackfyre link comes in her is, in my opinion, the apparent marriage between Daemon Blackfyre's eldest daughter Calla and Bittersteel. They were betrothed, and if they married and had children then I think Illyrio is descended from one of their daughters - most likely through a succession of daughters, very much obscuring the bloodline, and explaining why nobody knows (not Viserys III, not Jorah, not Aerys II in the past, nor Robert) who the hell this Illyrio Mopatis fellow actually is.

Illyrio being descended from Bittersteel and Calla Blackfyre could also explain his sway over the Golden Company. Bittersteel was the legendary and founder and worshiped longterm captain-general of the company. If a great-grandson of his approached the company, the officers would have to listen.

Varys could be pretty much everything. A Targaryen/Blackfyre bastard, or the child of a daughter or sister of one of the last Blackfyre pretenders. Daemon Blackfyre had seven sons, two of which are as of yet nameless, and an unknown number of grandchildren and great-grandchildren.

[Varysblackfyre321]

36 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Sure. I thought that was to allow for Ilyrio's concubine (fAegon's mother), to be a Blackfyre. Not sure where the evidence for Varys being related to them comes from. Aegon shaving his head for a while is really a flimsy link at best.

Meh, Martin likes repeats. A person with Targyen anchestery hides in plain sight It's a pretty big hint at least  having some deeper connection to the Targyen other than what he's disclosed. No certianties of course but it'd fit better with what we've seen him doing than his stated motivation of "I'm a warrior for social justice, I'm just doing this for the realm" spill he goes on occasion. I mean how is bringing a dothraki horde over to Westeroes  with the head of a madman for anyone's good? Aegon was being prepped to rule benignly but he's not being endowed with political philosophy that would revolutionize the country.

[bent branch]

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Talking about Varys, I'm not actually clear on what his motivations are. We suspect we know why Illyrio is supporting fAegon. But with Varys things don't seem to tie up.

Why would he want to bring a fake Targaryen back? He doesn't believe that things were better under the Targaryens. Based on his monologue to the dying Kevan, he claims that he wants greater social justice. But why do you need a Targ for this, rather than say a pliable young Tommen, or Edrick Storm?

I don't think Varys really gives two hoots about the Targaryen dynasty as such. Particularly not its connection with sorcery, which he professes to hate. And if that is the case, then if he really wants a better life for the common folk, I don't see what made Robert's reign any worse than that of Aerys.

So why the elobrate plan to destabilize the realm, leading to wars and famine killing hundreds of thousands of common folk, just to replace one dynasty with another? It doesn't make sense.

One answer is that Varys and Illyrio are motivated by the prophecy of Azor Ahai. GRRM makes the effort to point out that both Dany and Tyrion could hear the red priests at their night prayers from Illyrio's manse. As two Essosi men, both Varys and Illyrio would be familiar with the Azor Ahai presented by Benerro (which is actually different than the Azor Ahai that is talked about else where). Finally, when Varys and Illyrio were stealing papers on speculation during their criminal days, they could have come across obscure papers talking about the prophecies. Illyrio says he is in it to pay Varys back for making him a rich man who has known both prestige and love. Varys on the other hand may be interested in a savior figure who will bring justice to the world (Benerro's Azor Ahai).

[Megorova]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Newsflash: There is no proof that Lyanna Stark is Jon Snow's mother, is there?

There is

Lyanna's blue winter roses (crown given to her by Rhaegar, and rose petals at the Tower of Joy, where Lyanna was dying, in room smelling like blood and roses) - in Dany's vision blue flower growing in a chink on the wall of ice (that blue flower is Jon). Thus Jon is Lyanna's child.

Two clues that indicate that Jon is the Prince that was promised - when Melisandre asked R'hllor to show her the Prince, the flames showed her Jon Snow. In his dream Jon saw himself with Lightbringer sword. According to prophecy, TPTWP will be descendant of Jaehaerys. Melisandre's vision and Jon's prophetic dragon-dream prove that Jon is TPTWP, and thus he is descendant of Jaehaerys. Which means that one of his parents is also descendant of Jaehaerys, and based on Jon's typical Stark looks, his other parent is a Stark. Thus Targaryen + Stark = Jon. The rest is also easy to figure out, who is who.

At the time of Jon's conceivement and birth, there was four Targaryens and three Starks, alive in Westeros.

Targaryens - King Aerys, Queen Rhaella, Crown Prince Rhaegar, second prince Viserys. Starks - Eddard, Benjen, Lyanna.

Out of those seven there are only two females, which means that Jon's mother is either Queen Rhaella Targaryen, or Lyanna Stark.

At the time when Jon was born, Rhaella was still pregnant, and under surveilance at Dragonstone, and Ned was nowhere near her to take her child away, to pose it as his bastard. Thus Rhaella is not Jon's mother. The only one left is Lyanna.

At the time when Jon was conceived, Viserys was only 7 years old, thus he can't be Jon's father. Aerys at that time was in Red Keep, constantly surrounded by Kingsguards. So he's also not Jon's father. The only one left is Rhaegar.

Evidence that I gave (about those seven) are undeniable facts. We may ignore all other clues, but this are facts. Thus Jon is son of Lyanna Stark and Rhaegar Targaryen.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, but that would mean that Dany ends up marrying the men who are going to claim the other two dragons in the near future - which do include Brown Ben, Tyrion, and Victarion. Jon Snow isn't part of that list

He sure is The Undying said - bride of fire - three mounts must you ride - one to love <- this is Jon. Slayer of lies - third lie is that Jon, who was born at Tower of Joy, is a bastard of Ned Stark. Actually he's a hybrid - half-dragon, half-wolf, a chimera, or a stone beast, and a secret Targaryen prince, living in shadows - "From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire."

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The idea that Varys is of Blackfyre descent is new to me, and would of course explain his motivation. I must admit I am not aware of any evidence to that effect, however.

Evidence that hint that Varys could be a Blackfyre:

1. His eye color is unknown. Though could be that his perfumes are a hint - he smells like lilacs, thus could be that his eyes are lilac-colored.

2. He's too young to become naturally bold. He came to 7K years ago, and even then he was completely bold. Thus he's shaving off his hair, same as was done by the Egg, Aegon V.

3. In their duo (Varys x Illyrio), Varys is the one in charge. He's in the center of events, orchestrating chaos in 7K, while Illyrio is just a sidekick. Golden Company is a child of Bittersteel, thus its captains would have been more respectful towards his descendant, than they are towards Illyrio.

[Aetta]

On 2/17/2018 at 4:05 PM, Bloodraven's Spider said:

Yes. Varys most likely told Ned where Lyanna was and knew why. You don't just stumble across the Tower of Joy it's In the middle of no where. 

Why Varys and not Ashara?

[Megorova]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that the Serra woman has Blackfyre ancestors isn't exactly favored by me. She was a whore, and the Lysene whores all have Valyrian features.

Serra a whore in a Lyseni pillow house. Saera Targaryen escaped from 7K, for some time lived in Lys (probably gave there birth to a few of bastard children, and left them with their fathers), and then moved to Volantis, where she became owner of pleasure house.

1. Serra - Saera.

2. Pillow house - pleasure house (same things).

3. Whore in a brothel - owner of a brothel (same as was Bellegere Otherys the First, Black Pearl of Braavos, owner of a brothel, and her daughter worked there as a whore, same as her granddaughter, and great granddaughter, who is currently both - owner of that brothel and a whore/courtesan that also works in it; or Johanna Swann, Black Swan of the Triarchy; or Chataya, owner of  brothel in King's Landing, and her daughter Alayaya, that is working there).

4. Blackfyre in exile - Targaryen princess on the run.

Serra and Varys are both from Lys. Both were sold into slavery, or born slaves. Thus it's possible that they are brother and sister. That's how Varys and Illyrio are related - they could be brothers-in-law.

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Illyrio being descended from Bittersteel and Calla Blackfyre could also explain his sway over the Golden Company. Bittersteel was the legendary and founder and worshiped longterm captain-general of the company. If a great-grandson of his approached the company, the officers would have to listen.

Blackfyres never lost control over Golden Company.

Last known Blackfyre from male line, Maelys the Monstrous was killed by Barristan Selmy in 260. Varys came to 7K in 278. Since then he never went back to Essos, at least not for long. Not long enough to establish his control over Golden Company. Which means that he was in contact with them, since before he went to Westeros, prior 278.

When he came to 7K, he was 25-35, either way he wasn't very young then. He was definitely older than 18. Which means that, by the time when Maelys and the last Daemon Blackfyre were both captain-generals of Golden Company, Varys was 7-17 years old, in 260. Thus Varys established his control over Golden Company in those 18 years, between 260 and 278.

Prior Varys, Golden Company was serving to descendants of Daemon I Blackfyre's seven sons. Maelys was the last out of those descendants from male line. Thus after he died, control over Golden Company passed to female line of Blackfyres. To descendant of Calla Blackfyre, to her and Bittersteel's grandson - Varys.

Bittersteel was born in 172, died in 241, aged 69. Calla was much younger than him. Daemon's sons were born in 184, 188, 189-193, ... Thus Calla was at least 12 years younger than Aegor, and was born after 184 AC.

Rohanne Webber-Lannister gave birth to her last child, in 230, when she was 44-45 years old.

Lets take for example that Calla was born in 184, and gave birth to her youngest child when she was 44, in 228. At that time Bittersteel was 56. So by the time when he died, his youngest child could have been 13 years old. And by 260, when Maelys was killed, that last child was 32 years old. His or her child could have been born in 243-253, when he/she was 15-25 years old. So by the time when Bittersteel died, his grandson Varys was 2-12 years old.

Thus Bittersteel died, his grandson Varys at that time was still a little kid 2-12 years old, and Maelys and Daemon the Last, seized Golden Company. Could be that parents of Varys and Serra both died. For example father died in a battle, while fighting in Golden Company, and mother died in childbirth. Sometime between death of Bittersteel and death of Maelys, in 241-260, Varys and his little sister both were sold into slavery, Varys was traveling with mummers, then was castrated, eventually met Illyrio in Lys, and after they established their control over that city, Varys got in contact with Golden Company. Probably by the time he was sold, he was old enough to remember who he is, and who was his grandfather. Probably Bittersteel's grandchildren were sold into slavery, after their mother died, and while Golden Company was away on some mission, thus they didn't knew what happened with children. But when Varys came to them, and was able to prove who he is, then they accepted him in their ranks. And after death of Maelys in 260, Varys became commander of Golden Company. Though he was much smarter than other Blackfyres prior him, and thus he knew that it's nearly impossible to seize 7K, without preliminary preparations. Thus first he went to Westeros, and was going to cause chaos, by clashing Targaryens against each other, and by starting a civil war in 7K, between King's loyalists and supporters of Crown Prince. And afterwards, when 7K would have lost half of its power in that war, he was going to summon Golden Company, and to lead them in a war agains the remaining Targaryen. Probably after that he was planning to put on Iron Throne, child of his sister Serra. But she died childless. And because of Robert's Rebellion they had to postpone their plans for 15 years.

I think that Littlefinger in his youth was one of Varys' little birds, and he knows about Varys' origin, and about his plans to seize 7K. Eventually LF decided to work for himself, and furthermore used Varys' own strategy to get to Iron Throne - Divide and conquer.

LF caused death of Jon Arryn, execution of Eddard Stark, and The War of Five Kings. He created chaos, and thru it got his hands on the key to three kingdoms - Sansa Stark (The North, The Vale, and Riverlands). He uses Varys' plan, but with a slightly different ending - he wants himself to become King of 7K.

[John Suburbs]

23 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Thing is, did this particular piece of news travel South? Cersei probably did hear (her comment about raping a Dornish woman while her home was burning), but did Varys?

Also: the honorable Ned Stark slipping once sounds way more probable than the paragon of honour lying to his BF and king.

 

Varys should know. This is exactly the kind of info that a Master of Whispers should concern himself with. He knows everything else about everyone else. Others know about the bastard of Winterfell -- Tyrion, Robert -- and the tale about Ashara is known down south, since that story is unlikely to have originated in Winterfell.

And yes, it is probable that Ned stumbled, and most people are apt to believe a salacious lie rather than an uncomfortable truth, but Varys is not most people. The possibility of another Targaryen bastard should have been first and foremost in his mind throughout the entire war, so the news that one had not been produced should have come as either a great relief or a great disappointment, depending on where his true loyalties lie. The moment he first heard that Ned returned to Winterfell with a baby boy he claims is his own should have raised major red flags for Varys.

So either he got royally snowed by a rank amateur in the art of politics and deception, or he completely blew off the fact that Targaryen blood, and perhaps the rightful heir to the Iron Throne, has been hiding out at Winterfell this whole time. Either way, major bad on Varys' part.

[Aetta]

5 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

The possibility of another Targaryen bastard should have been first and foremost in his mind throughout the entire war, so the news that one had not been produced should have come as either a great relief or a great disappointment, depending on where his true loyalties lie. The moment he first heard that Ned returned to Winterfell with a baby boy he claims is his own should have raised major red flags for Varys.

So either he got royally snowed by a rank amateur in the art of politics and deception, or he completely blew off the fact that Targaryen blood, and perhaps the rightful heir to the Iron Throne, has been hiding out at Winterfell this whole time. Either way, major bad on Varys' part.

Possibility?  I would say probability, at least in terms of being vigilant.  How many women did Aerys sleep with before he decided to stay true to Rhaella?  

[John Suburbs]

16 hours ago, Megorova said:

The thing is - prior Robert's Rebellion, Eddard Stark was no one. Second son of Warden of the North. There was four Wardens in 7K. And the other three were more significant than Rickard Stark.

Warden of the East - Arryns: 1. tree times intermarried with Targaryens, 2. Jeyne Arryn was one of sever regents of young King Aegon III, 3. first Warden of the East, young Ronnel Arryn, even flew together with Queen Visenya Targaryen on her dragon Vhagar. And The Vale is much closer to King's Landing than The North, and they even have international harbor, and frequently trade with Essos.

Warden of the South - Tyrells, Lords Paramounts of the richest and the most prosperous region of 7K.

Warden of the West - Lannisters: Tywin Lannister was King's Hand for a longer period of time, than any other Hand before him. And Lannisters have gold.

While the only significant post in Targaryen court, that Starks ever had, was King's Hand (Cregan Stark) for ONE day. And the only resource that northerners have in abundance is snow.

So back to Eddard Stark - second son of Rickard Stark, the least significant out of four Wardens of 7K. There was no reason for Varys to mind Ned, and even less reasons to spy after him. Prior Robert's Rebellion, probably only northerners, and some people at The Vale and Stormlands, personally knew Ned. He was a quiet guy, he was boring and insignificant. I doubt that any people were interested in analysing his personality, what is typical for him, and what is not. Thus after the war, when he has brought his bastard to Winterfell, no one was overthinking whether fathering a bastard is typical for Ned, or whether it means that something more is going on. Furthermore, Ned could have told in court, that Lyanna died long ago, shortly after Rhaegar kidnapped her. We don't know whether people in 7K knew that Lyanna died near the end of 283, or whether they think that she died in 282, or whether Rhaegar killed her in 283, prior going to participate in the war.

So basically there was no two and two for Varys to put them together. He doesn't know what we know. For him, prior Robert's Rebellion, Eddard Stark was too insignificant to be on Varys' radar. In span of rebellion, Ned was fighting in the war, and it's unlikely that Varys and his spies had an abbility to spy after every action of every person on the battlefield, and what they do in their free time. If Ned said to Robert, that Lyanna was long dead, then there was no reason for Varys to connect Lyanna's death, with appearance of Ned's bastard at Winterfell.

We're not talking about Ned's status at the beginning of the war, but at the end. By the time he returns to Winterfell with his baby boy, Ned is the Lord of Winterfell and Warden of the North. But even then, Varys doesn't need to concern himself so much with keeping track of Ned, but of Jon. And it's not a matter of spying, but taking well known information and connecting the dots.

The possibility of Rhaegar fathering a child on Lyanna should have been first and foremost in Varys' mind the whole time they were together. Legitimate or not, such a child would have great implications for the future peace and stability of the realm. So when Ned declares his bastard, I'm sorry, but a smart guy like Varys should have considered the possibilities. Knowing other people's secrets is the nature of his service. That is why he is a member of the small council, why they call him lord, why he is Illyrio's point man in King's Landing.

And I doubt Ned would be able to convince anyone that Lyanna died long before he reached the tower. What possible reason would there be for three kingsguard to remain there, let along sacrifice their lives?

So the only two possibilities are that Varys did not know, or that he knew but didn't care. Either way, it was a major boner.

But remember, all of this is based on the idea that Jon is actually the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna. Mayhaps we are all looking at this completely wrong and RLJ is not true, and Varys knows for a fact that it is not.

[John Suburbs]

8 minutes ago, Aetta said:

Possibility?  I would say probability, at least in terms of being vigilant.  How many women did Aerys sleep with before he decided to stay true to Rhaella?  

Yes, highly probable. And since the only account of what happened at the ToJ came from Ned, and maybe his strange little cranno-bannerman Howland Reed, Ned suddenly appearing with his own baby boy after squelching the idea that Lyanna birthed a child for Rhaegar should have drawn the suspicion of someone like Varys whose very life is based on puzzling out the secrets of others.

[Bloodraven's Spider]

1 hour ago, Aetta said:

Why Varys and not Ashara?

Ashara most likely didn't know where Lyanna was. Ashara was most likely in Starfall by the time Ned reach the TOJ. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

So the only two possibilities are that Varys did not know, or that he knew but didn't care. Either way, it was a major boner.

If he knows, I think it's more that he doesn't need Jon to carry out whatever plans he has in mind. 

To Varys and Illyrio, Dany was expandable. But now that she has dragons, they want her. Doran didn't care about her for 16 years until her dragons came along. I tend to look at Jon through the same lens. Jon is not needed because they presumably have Aegon.

[John Suburbs]

27 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

If he knows, I think it's more that he doesn't need Jon to carry out whatever plans he has in mind. 

To Varys and Illyrio, Dany was expandable. But now that she has dragons, they want her. Doran didn't care about her for 16 years until her dragons came along. I tend to look at Jon through the same lens. Jon is not needed because they presumably have Aegon.

That shouldn't matter. If Jon is not essential to Varys' plans, he could very well be essential to someone else's plans that could majorly interfere with Varys' plans. If Jon can be proven to be a legitimate son of Rhaegar, as in, say, some sort of marriage document in Lyanna's tomb, plus a certain silver-stringed harp, then he could press a more plausible claim to the throne than someone like Aegon who only has the word of people like JonCon and Varys.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Megorova said:

There is

That is all not proof. Proof is an overwhelming preponderance of evidence. That is not what we have, and that is not what the people of Westeros have.

I very much believe that Jon Snow is Rhaegar's son by Lyanna. And I'm also pretty sure they were married.

What I don't believe is that the people knowing about that can be considered proof that's going to convince many people. If people don't take Stannis' word that his nephews and niece are abominations and bastards then why on earth should anybody listen to Howland Reed, Wylla, or some Daynes?

Not to mention nonsensical/esoteric stuff like prophecies and dreams.

Quote

He sure is The Undying said - bride of fire - three mounts must you ride - one to love <- this is Jon. Slayer of lies - third lie is that Jon, who was born at Tower of Joy, is a bastard of Ned Stark. Actually he's a hybrid - half-dragon, half-wolf, a chimera, or a stone beast, and a secret Targaryen prince, living in shadows - "From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire."

Sure, Daenerys will love and marry Jon, that was obvious from the start. The blue flower and the wall of ice shows up in the vision triplet dealing with Dany's husbands.

But this doesn't have to mean that Dany and her dragons have anything to do with 'proving' Jon Snow's true parentage. Nor is it necessary for them to know or care about their close kinship or Jon's true identity when they are fucking each other's brains out. They can do all that just because they are teenagers.

Jon is very likely no lie in 'the Slayer of Lies' triplet. Those lies seem to be enemies or adversaries or rivals of Daenerys - Stannis, Aegon, and the shadow beast. I assume it is the same lies three times - Stannis claims to be the savior of mankind, and he isn't, Aegon will claim that he is the savior of mankind (as Rhaegar's son, the promised prince) which is not going to be true (either because he isn't Rhaegar's son or because Rhaegar was wrong in his belief that Aegon was the promised prince), and whoever the shadow beast is (Euron, perhaps?) might also claim to save Westeros from the Others, etc.

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1. His eye color is unknown. Though could be that his perfumes are a hint - he smells like lilacs, thus could be that his eyes are lilac-colored.

Varys has brown eyes. There are official illustrations of the man, drawn as per George's own descriptions.

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2. He's too young to become naturally bold. He came to 7K years ago, and even then he was completely bold. Thus he's shaving off his hair, same as was done by the Egg, Aegon V.

Could very well be. It is a pity that Kevan saw no silver-golden stubble on Varys' head.

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3. In their duo (Varys x Illyrio), Varys is the one in charge. He's in the center of events, orchestrating chaos in 7K, while Illyrio is just a sidekick. Golden Company is a child of Bittersteel, thus its captains would have been more respectful towards his descendant, than they are towards Illyrio.

That's actually wrong. The indication we have is that Illyrio is the one in charge, and Varys is the one executing his directives. At least that's how it seems to be in AGoT when Arya overhears their conversation. Illyrio is also the guy managing the Targaryens in exile, the Dothraki, the Golden Company, and Aegon. He is the one overseeing the crucial parts of the real plan, the plan that has yet to be implemented. Varys is just the guy collecting data and confusing/manipulating the enemy.

That doesn't mean Illyrio and Varys are not essentially equal partners or that Varys isn't the genius who made Illyrio the man he is today. 

However, chances are pretty good that Illyrio is the father of the entire Aegon plan. The boy is likely his son. Varys may have decided to go along with it and help him because he wants to use Aegon as a means to an end to create a lasting peace.

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

Serra a whore in a Lyseni pillow house. Saera Targaryen escaped from 7K, for some time lived in Lys (probably gave there birth to a few of bastard children, and left them with their fathers), and then moved to Volantis, where she became owner of pleasure house.

1. Serra - Saera.

2. Pillow house - pleasure house (same things).

3. Whore in a brothel - owner of a brothel (same as was Bellegere Otherys the First, Black Pearl of Braavos, owner of a brothel, and her daughter worked there as a whore, same as her granddaughter, and great granddaughter, who is currently both - owner of that brothel and a whore/courtesan that also works in it; or Johanna Swann, Black Swan of the Triarchy; or Chataya, owner of  brothel in King's Landing, and her daughter Alayaya, that is working there).

4. Blackfyre in exile - Targaryen princess on the run.

Serra and Varys are both from Lys. Both were sold into slavery, or born slaves. Thus it's possible that they are brother and sister. That's how Varys and Illyrio are related - they could be brothers-in-law.

That is just a lot of speculation. There is no reason to assume that Saera Targaryen had any children, nor that any children she may have were the ancestors of Illyrio's Serra. Nor is it very likely that there would be any meaningful connection between Serra and her distant ancestor Saera if that was the case.

There is also no reason to assume Varys and Serra are related, never mind that they are from the same place. I mean, Varys and Illyrio rose to power and prominence long before Illyrio bought and married the Serra woman. Why didn't they look for Varys' sister earlier? Why did Varys go to KL to serve Aerys instead of looking for his sister? If she was in Lys it shouldn't have been all that difficult to find her.

Chances are that Illyrio never really loved the Serra woman, and only married her to ensure that his son Aegon was accepted as his legitimate son and legal heir by the authorities of Pentos.

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

Blackfyres never lost control over Golden Company.

Sure, they did. Maelys the Monstrous was the last Blackfyre pretender and the last Blackfyre. Afterwards there were just Blackfyre descendants through the female line who simply aren't Blackfyres. As far as we know Myles Toyne and Harry Strickland are both no Blackfyre descendants, either. They controlled the Golden Company after Maelys - and Toyne isn't likely to have been Maelys' immediate successor. They may have been 1-2 captain-general between Maelys and Toyne.

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

Last known Blackfyre from male line, Maelys the Monstrous was killed by Barristan Selmy in 260. Varys came to 7K in 278. Since then he never went back to Essos, at least not for long.

Actually, Varys was personally in Lys when he and Illyrio made their pact with Connington and Toyne and handed little Aegon over to Connington.

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

Not long enough to establish his control over Golden Company. Which means that he was in contact with them, since before he went to Westeros, prior 278.

There is no reason no evidence for any of that, nor any reason to assume it might be the case. We don't know how old Varys is (I assume he was at least in his mid-twenties in 278 AC) but we do know that Illyrio Mopatis controls and directs the Golden Company, not Varys.

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

Prior Varys, Golden Company was serving to descendants of Daemon I Blackfyre's seven sons. Maelys was the last out of those descendants from male line. Thus after he died, control over Golden Company passed to female line of Blackfyres. To descendant of Calla Blackfyre, to her and Bittersteel's grandson - Varys.

LOL, no. If anyone is Calla Blackfyre and Bittersteel descendant it is Illyrio, not Varys. Illyrio is the father of Aegon, not Varys. Going through Serra is just overly complicated and still doesn't explain why the hell Illyrio - the one actually living and loving Aegon - enacts this mad plan which permanently separates him from his only child. The idea that Illyrio would do that kind of thing because his dead wife (and best friend) would ask him to is just silly. Why on earth should that man care that Serra and Varys want to put his son on the Iron Throne? Illyrio Mopatis is a Pentoshi. Aegon's future should be in Pentos (or Essos) not in savage Westeros.

That is not there makes only sense if Illyrio himself is invested in Westeros. And that he is. The man speaks the Common Tongue, hangs out with Westerosi, etc.

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

Bittersteel was born in 172, died in 241, aged 69. Calla was much younger than him. Daemon's sons were born in 184, 188, 189-193, ... Thus Calla was at least 12 years younger than Aegor, and was born after 184 AC.

Rohanne Webber-Lannister gave birth to her last child, in 230, when she was 44-45 years old.

Lets take for example that Calla was born in 184, and gave birth to her youngest child when she was 44, in 228. At that time Bittersteel was 56. So by the time when he died, his youngest child could have been 13 years old. And by 260, when Maelys was killed, that last child was 32 years old. His or her child could have been born in 243-253, when he/she was 15-25 years old. So by the time when Bittersteel died, his grandson Varys was 2-12 years old.

You don't have to make up numbers like that. If it was that easy, everybody would know who the hell this Varys chap was (or Illyrio, as in my scenario). The fact that nobody knows - and nobody ever found out - only makes sense if there are a couple of female generations between Calla's daughter by Bittersteel and Illyrio's mother. And that is likely the case.

Bittersteel's children would have been as prominent as the Blackfyre sons themselves - daughters less so than sons, but still. And Bittersteel could have had sons, too, sons who died during the Blackfyre rebellions (especially the Third and Fourth) or during the many campaigns the Golden Company fought in Essos.

But the daughters would have lived and produced offspring. Bittersteel's elder daughters would have likely married Blackfyre pretenders (I'm inclined to believe that Haegon Blackfyre married one of his sisters, but his son Daemon III may have married one of Calla's daughters) but the younger daughters could have been used to seal alliances in Tyrosh and elsewhere. And daughters and granddaughters from such unions could have gone pretty much anywhere, even to distant Pentos.

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

Thus Bittersteel died, his grandson Varys at that time was still a little kid 2-12 years old, and Maelys and Daemon the Last, seized Golden Company. Could be that parents of Varys and Serra both died. For example father died in a battle, while fighting in Golden Company, and mother died in childbirth. Sometime between death of Bittersteel and death of Maelys, in 241-260, Varys and his little sister both were sold into slavery, Varys was traveling with mummers, then was castrated, eventually met Illyrio in Lys, and after they established their control over that city, Varys got in contact with Golden Company.

That contradicts the text. Pycelle - the source making Varys a born Lyseni - claims that Varys was born a slave in Lys. That likely means that his mother was a slave, too.

Now, it is possible that Varys' mother was the sister or daughter of Daemon (IV) Blackfyre, the one Maelys Blackfyre killed. She may have been sold into slavery afterwards, eventually giving birth to Varys (we don't know how long Maelys commanded the Golden Company, or how old he was when he died - on his picture he looks pretty shabby and old in 260 AC - we don't even know whether he was a grandson or great-grandson of Daemon Blackfyre)

But that's just one scenario. Varys could also be a descendant of Daemon III Blackfyre (or a descendant of one of his brothers). He could be a descendant of Aenys Blackfyre or a descendant from the sixth or seventh Blackfyre son (Daemon (IV) and Maelys might also be descended from any of them).

We just don't know. And we should not really presume we do and can figure it out at that point. Because we can't. We don't have enough information.

Especially not with Varys - because he could also be just some Blackfyre or Targaryen bastard. Or the descendant of such a person. Like Brown Ben Plumm or Rennifer Longwaters.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Varys should know. This is exactly the kind of info that a Master of Whispers should concern himself with.

Exactly. And as I've said. It is not that difficult to figure it out. If Stannis can uncover the twincest, Varys can surely uncover who the hell Jon Snow's mother is.

This doesn't mean he would have conclusive proof - Stannis doesn't have any proof, either - it simply means he could have figured it out. He could have seen through Ned's clumsy excuses and lies, realizing that this obscure bastard was about as old - or exactly as old - as Lyanna Stark's child by Prince Rhaegar would have been, had it lived.

And it is pretty much out of the question that nobody at court - especially not Varys - didn't know that Rhaegar and Lyanna were married and that Lyanna was pregnant. There was no reason to keep any of that a secret, nor would there have been any way to keep this a secret even if the people involved would have tried to keep it that way. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out what Rhaegar and Lyanna were doing at that tower (or wherever they were).

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So either he got royally snowed by a rank amateur in the art of politics and deception, or he completely blew off the fact that Targaryen blood, and perhaps the rightful heir to the Iron Throne, has been hiding out at Winterfell this whole time. Either way, major bad on Varys' part.

Again, chances are pretty good that this plot line is going to come back eventually. We don't know what Ned and Varys talked about in the black cell after Ned's last chapter, nor do we know what eventually broke dear Ned's back. Was it the threat to Sansa, or was it something else? We don't know. We think we know, but we don't know. And that's pretty deliberate on George's part.

[Megorova]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The possibility of Rhaegar fathering a child on Lyanna should have been first and foremost in Varys' mind the whole time they were together.

That's the source of your misconception.

Characters of ASOIAF doesn't know that Rhaegar and Lyanna were spending time together. All they know is that when Lyanna was on her way to her brother's wedding at Riverran, she was kidnapped by Rhaegar Targaryen. That's all. They don't know that Lyanna and Rhaegar went to Dorne. They don't know where Rhaegar was, after he kidnapped Lyanna, and prior he returned to King's Landing. They don't know when exactly, and how Lyanna died. So they all may as well think that Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna, raped her, killed her, and then left her body somewhere, from where much later, her remnants were retrieved by her brother.

Don't confuse information known to us - READERS - with what is known to characters.

We know this from Eddards dream (AGOT, Eddard X):

Quote

He dreamt an old dream, of three knights in white cloaks, and a tower long fallen, and Lyanna in her bed of blood.

In the dream his friends rode with him, as they had in life. Proud Martyn Cassel, Jory’s father; faithful Theo Wull; Ethan Glover, who had been Brandon’s squire; Ser Mark Ryswell, soft of speech and gentle of heart; the crannogman, Howland Reed; Lord Dustin on his great red stallion. Ned had known their faces as well as he knew his own once, but the years leech at a man’s memories, even those he has vowed never to forget. In the dream they were only shadows, grey wraiths on horses made of mist.

They were seven, facing three. In the dream as it had been in life. Yet these were no ordinary three. They waited before the round tower, the red mountains of Dome at their backs, their white cloaks blowing in the wind. And these were no shadows; their faces burned clear, even now. Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, had a sad smile on his lips. The hilt of the greatsword Dawn poked up over his right shoulder. Ser Oswell Whent was on one knee, sharpening his blade with a whetstone. Across his white-enameled helm, the black bat of his House spread its wings. Between them stood fierce old Ser Gerold Hightower, the White Bull, Lord Commander of the Kingsguard.

“I looked for you on the Trident,” Ned said to them.

“We were not there,” Ser Gerold answered.

“Woe to the Usurper if we had been,” said Ser Oswell.

“When King’s Landing fell, Ser Jaime slew your king with a golden sword, and I wondered where you were.”

“Far away,” Ser Gerold said, “or Aerys would yet sit the Iron Throne, and our false brother would burn in seven hells.”

“I came down on Storm’s End to lift the siege,” Ned told them, “and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne dipped their banners, and all their knights bent the knee to pledge us fealty. I was certain you would be among them.”

“Our knees do not bend easily,” said Ser Arthur Dayne.

“Ser Willem Darry is fled to Dragonstone, with your queen and Prince Viserys. I thought you might have sailed with him.”

“Ser Willem is a good man and true,” said Ser Oswell.

“But not of the Kingsguard,” Ser Gerold pointed out. “The Kingsguard does not flee.”

“Then or now,” said Ser Arthur. He donned his helm.

“We swore a vow,” explained old Ser Gerold.

Ned’s wraiths moved up beside him, with shadow swords in hand. They were seven against three.

“And now it begins,” said Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning. He unsheathed Dawn and held it with both hands. The blade was pale as milkglass, alive with light.

“No,” Ned said with sadness in his voice. “Now it ends.” As they came together in a rush of steel and shadow, he could hear Lyanna screaming. “Eddard!” she called. A storm of rose petals blew across a blood-streaked sky, as blue as the eyes of death.

“Lord Eddard,” Lyanna called again.

“I promise,” he whispered. “Lya, I promise…”

In the World book it is said that Lyanna's exact whereabouts during Robert's Rebellion were unknown. Rhaegar himself could not be found, either, for a large part of the war.

People don't know whether all that time, when Rhaegar's whereabouts were unknown, he spent with Lyanna. They don't know it.

This is what Jaime and other people from King's Landing know:

Quote

“He had finally realized that Robert was no mere outlaw lord to be crushed at whim, but the greatest threat House Targaryen had faced since Daemon Blackfyre. The king reminded Lewyn Martell gracelessly that he held Elia and sent him to take command of the ten thousand Dornishmen coming up the kingsroad. Jon Darry and Barristan Selmy rode to Stoney Sept to rally what they could of griffins’ men, and Prince Rhaegar returned from the south and persuaded his father to swallow his pride and summon my father.

Thus they knew only that Rhaegar came from somewhere in the south. That's all. Probably not many people know ever this piece of information. Jaime was one of Kingsguards, so to him Rhaegar maybe told that he returned from the south, and not more than that. Characters doesn't know whether Rhaegar was in the south with Lyanna, or whether at that time Lyanna was already long dead.

Events at the Tower of Joy, are known only to us, readers, and only thru Eddard's dream, that I posted above.

Separate in your mind, what we (readers) know, from what they (characters) know.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

18 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

That shouldn't matter. If Jon is not essential to Varys' plans, he could very well be essential to someone else's plans that could majorly interfere with Varys' plans. If Jon can be proven to be a legitimate son of Rhaegar, as in, say, some sort of marriage document in Lyanna's tomb, plus a certain silver-stringed harp, then he could press a more plausible claim to the throne than someone like Aegon who only has the word of people like JonCon and Varys.

Out of curiosity, who do you think knows about Jon?

On top of Wylla and House Dayne, I think Leyton Hightower knows. Are there names you wanna throw at me?

[bent branch]

45 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That's actually wrong. The indication we have is that Illyrio is the one in charge, and Varys is the one executing his directives. At least that's how it seems to be in AGoT when Arya overhears their conversation. Illyrio is also the guy managing the Targaryens in exile, the Dothraki, the Golden Company, and Aegon. He is the one overseeing the crucial parts of the real plan, the plan that has yet to be implemented. Varys is just the guy collecting data and confusing/manipulating the enemy.

That doesn't mean Illyrio and Varys are not essentially equal partners or that Varys isn't the genius who made Illyrio the man he is today. 

However, chances are pretty good that Illyrio is the father of the entire Aegon plan. The boy is likely his son. Varys may have decided to go along with it and help him because he wants to use Aegon as a means to an end to create a lasting peace.

The chances are nil that this is Illyrio's scheme. Illyrio tells Tyrion flat out that he is doing his part for Varys to thank him for making him a rich and powerful man. The part in KL is Illyrio telling Varys to delay because he is having a hard time completing his part, not Illyrio giving Varys orders. Varys has already done so much for Illyrio, does it make sense that he would still be doing these things for Illyrio's benefit?