Question Does Varys knows who Jon Snow really is?

[Ygrain]

49 minutes ago, Bloodraven's Spider said:

Why not tell Jon? Because if he tells him who she is and that she's dead Ned is lying to his son and he opens up a can of worms. He married Ashara before Cat and the marriage was most likely done in White Harbor in front of a Weirwood and not in in the light of the 7 like his marriage with Cat. Jon is the eldest and should be heir of winterfell. If he tells him she's alive but hasnt a clue where she is, Jon could go looking for her or others who want to do Ned harm. Plus once they find out she is watching over the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna all hell will break loose. And Ashara 100% cares for Aegon and has Ned's trust.

The connection between the 2 points is not so much the actions themselves but the consequences. If people found out that she is Jon's mother and is watching over her nephew who happens to be 1 of the last Targaryens in the world she would be in grave danger. 

You're constantly connecting information that have no connection whatsoever. If Ned tells Jon that he married Ashara, it doesn't follow that they were married (not to mention that committing bigamy is totaly out of character for Ned and there is zero hint at anything like that in his POV). If he tells him that she is dead, there is absolutely no reason for Jon to go looking for her. Going out looking for her when Ned doesn't have a clue where she might be gives exactly zero chance of finding her or what she has been up to.

Also, not sure why you act as if Ned never lied - he admits himself that he has been living lies for fourteen years, and we see him lie to protect Cat and Sansa. Lying about Ashara would be protecting her and Aegon, which is perfectly in line with Ned putting love and family above his honour.

[Megorova]

18 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

As far as Wylla goes, I don't think she was the wet nurse that went to Winterfell, and I think we might have gotten a hint as far as her identity goes and where she might be in AFFC.

I think that prior Lyanna's arrival to TofJ, Wylla was working at Starfall. When Rhaegar with Lyanna came to Dorne, and Lyanna became pregnant, Arthur Dayne either sent a message to his sister to Starfall, or personally went there. Then Arthur brought Ashara and Wylla to TofJ, to help Lyanna.

After Lyanna's death, Wylla went with Jon and Ned to Winterfell. And Ashara went with Howland Reed to the Neck, where she became his wife Jyana. A few years later, she gave birth to her third child, Edric. The boy, unlike his older sister and brother, didn't looked like a cranogmen. Thus his parents had to send him away. Because all those years they were hiding Ashara's real identity. So they contacted Ned, and asked him to return Wylla to them. Then Wylla took the boy, and brought him to Starfall. Probably Ashara/Jyana went with them. She revealed to Daynes family, that she's alive, and after leaving the boy with them, returned to her husband. Wylla became Edric's wet nurse, and afterwards remained at Starfall.

Could be that years later, Edric asked her why his nickname is Ned, and she told him that he is milk brother of Jon Snow, bastard son of Ned Stark from Winterfell. So based on this, Edric thought, that Jon is Wylla's own child. He just misinterpreted her words, because milk brothers could be children fed by the same wet nurse, or a child fed by her, whose parents hired her to be their child's wet nurse, and her own child. And the reason why names of Edric's parents weren't given anywhere, is because his father is not Lord Dayne, and his mother is not some Lady, they are Howland Reed and Ashara Dayne.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

27 minutes ago, Megorova said:

I think that prior Lyanna's arrival to TofJ, Wylla was working at Starfall. 

Allyaria was the reason Wylla may have been at Starfall. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 2/18/2018 at 1:48 PM, Ygrain said:

Thing is, did this particular piece of news travel South? Cersei probably did hear (her comment about raping a Dornish woman while her home was burning), but did Varys?

Also: the honorable Ned Stark slipping once sounds way more probable than the paragon of honour lying to his BF and king.

 

I think you have the right of it (as usual). 

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

No, we know she serves at Starfall, since she nursed Ned Dayne and he believes she is Jon's mother.

True, and it's probably a safe bet that Wylla knows that she is covering up for something, but that might not necessarily mean she knows Jon's true parentage.

21 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

I don't think Ned would tell anyone, but would he know who the people at the tower communicated with while they were there? These people already know the outcome of the Trident and they know of the Sack of King's Landing, so information has come to them somehow. There's obviously a lot of stuff we don't know, so this speculation could be completely wrong.

That's an interesting thought. While it seems to me that this is the kind of thing they would want to keep quiet, particularly after the Trident and the fall of King's Landing, mayhaps there are others who know what they were up to. And would they be able to piece together the report of Lyanna's death and subsequent appearance of Ned's bastard at Winterfell?

I'll be interest to read what you have on Leyton. He was Gerold's nephew, but would this be enough to trust him with such an explosive secret.

17 hours ago, bent branch said:

Someone definitely told Ned where to find Lyanna and that person was Varys. I have no doubt that Varys had a note slipped to Ned in a manner similar to the way the message was slipped to Kevan in the Epilogue of ADWD. This is the reason I believe Varys either does know or has a strong suspicion that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna. I don't believe for a moment that no one in KL knew where Rhaegar and Lyanna were. I just think it was known by very few people where they were.

I just try to correct this incorrect idea about the ToJ, because if you only read about it, it's location can seem really mysterious. I only realized where it was after looking at the maps from that group of maps released a number of years ago.

Mayhaps Varys told Ned and Robert, which may have been enough for Robert to pardon the man who some considered to be primarily responsible for the Mad King's increasing paranoia?

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 2/17/2018 at 2:45 PM, Sophia [email protected] said:

Spoiler

I believe the show is going a different path and they cut the plot of Aegon Targaryen/Young Griff from the show version.

Varys having a plot going on with Young Griff on books Does that mean Varys knows about Jon Snow and his birth?

There are three main conflicts in ASOIAF... 1) the conflict between Houses Stark and Lannister that has been been swallowed whole by the War of the Five Kings and is about to be swallowed by the war of the three queens and the Second Dance of the Dragons, 2) the return of the Dragons, and 3) the War for the Dawn. Of course there is a lot of overlap since this saga is not a trilogy (not even a trilogy told in several volumes). But basically the protagonist in the first conflict are the members of House Stark, the antagonist are the members of House Lannister, and the big bad is revealed at the end of Storm to be Petyr. The protagonist of the second conflict is Daenerys, Aegon is her antagonist, and Varys and Illyrio are the big bad. Interestingly, Tyrion's role in both of these conflicts appears to similar to that of a deuteragonist in a classical play. The third conflict appears to be a struggle between man and an evil race in which man's hero is likely to be Jon Snow. Thus Aegon's role and Jon's role are completely different. And Varys doesn't seem to be involved in the third main conflict at all. 

Spoiler

Structurally, what the show runners did was simplify the plot of the second main conflict. Daenerys the protagonist will still fight against and ally with many of the same characters, but her principal antagonist and the big bad from the books has been eliminated, so Varys and Illyrio are turned into supporters. 

For now, it's better that Varys does not know that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna since Varys is seeking to install another claimaint on the throne. There is no need for Varys to know that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna unless the author intends to have Varys help Jon become king. 

[kissdbyfire]

18 hours ago, bent branch said:

Someone definitely told Ned where to find Lyanna and that person was Varys. I have no doubt that Varys had a note slipped to Ned in a manner similar to the way the message was slipped to Kevan in the Epilogue of ADWD. This is the reason I believe Varys either does know or has a strong suspicion that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna. I don't believe for a moment that no one in KL knew where Rhaegar and Lyanna were. I just think it was known by very few people where they were.

I just try to correct this incorrect idea about the ToJ, because if you only read about it, it's location can seem really mysterious. I only realized where it was after looking at the maps from that group of maps released a number of years ago.

I completely agree. I think it doesn't make sense for Varys to not know anything. 

5 hours ago, Bloodraven's Spider said:

He sent Aegon away with Ashara (with the help of Varys/Connigton/Walys Flowers (aka Haldon). Robert was on a mission to kill every Targaryen remaining. Hiding Rhaegars son who happens to be the son of his betroth (Lyanna) won't go well with him plus he would be committing treason. We see what Robert did to Tywin when he presented him Rhaenys and Aegon... Nothing, because he was glad they were dead.

Aegon and Ashara had to be kept secret from Jon and the masses because if anyone who shouldn't, find out about their existence it could very well mean their death. Something Ned went to great lengths to hide especially Ashara. His relationship with her is one of the most secretive storylines in the entire series. He was forced into his marriage with Cat.

I don't understand where you are coming from here. I don't see where is your starting point, so to speak. Because w/o a fair number of assumptions and leaps, everything you propose falls down like a Tower of Joy house of cards.

39 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

True, and it's probably a safe bet that Wylla knows that she is covering up for something, but that might not necessarily mean she knows Jon's true parentage.

<snip>

 

[bent branch]

51 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Mayhaps Varys told Ned and Robert, which may have been enough for Robert to pardon the man who some considered to be primarily responsible for the Mad King's increasing paranoia?

When I compare how I think Ned was told to Kevan in the ADWD epilogue, I mean anonymously. I think Ned was given a written note from one of Varys' little birds. Ned may never think on who told him where Lyanna was because he didn't know where the information came from.

[kissdbyfire]

11 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

For now, it's better that Varys does not know that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna since Varys is seeking to install another claimaint on the throne. There is no need for Varys to know that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna unless the author intends to have Varys help Jon become kin

I don't know... Jon could be an interesting ace for Varys to have up his sleeve, and in more than one way. For instance, depending on what Varys' true goal is, Jon could be used as a replacement if need be. Another way is obviously holding a secret over Ned's/the Starks' heads, but this one changes somewhat after Robert's death. I'm sure there are more... 

[Lollygag]

27 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

For now, it's better that Varys does not know that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna since Varys is seeking to install another claimaint on the throne. There is no need for Varys to know that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna unless the author intends to have Varys help Jon become king. 

There are other options to consider. With a shortage of Starks, if Jon becomes a prominent piece, then an RLJ reveal might bring the North in to favor Aegon so long as Jon seems uninterested in the throne himself, and he doesn't, and other cards are played correctly. Varys might also be holding out for a dragon rider as they're hard to come by. Jon might be a backup in case Aegon dies. No doubt there are other possibilities as well. It's hard for me to go along with this line of reasoning as the story and Varys' plans are so hard to predict. 

There's a form of game playing which also might be going on: one never eliminates pieces which might prove to be useful in the future in some capacity unless absolutely necessary. As long as Jon's at the Wall and no one knows about him, why act now if he might be useful later?

[LiveFirstDieLater]

It’s not impossible that Vary’s could know about Jon, but I’m not sure I see any evidence that he does.

Rhaegar did return to King’s Landing after his Tower of Joy sojourn. Brandon Stark’s squire, Ethan Glover, was the only member of Brandon’s party not to be executed was being held there. Presumably he was in the Black Cells, Vary’s domain, and it’s entirely possible Rhaegar spoke to him there before leaving for the Trident and promising changes on his return. Ethan then proceeded south with Ned after the sack and never lived to ride away from the Tower of Joy.

So I’d say Varys may have had the opportunity to learn about an R+L child, but I don’t really see any reason to believe he did.

[bent branch]

6 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

It’s not impossible that Vary’s could know about Jon, but I’m not sure I see any evidence that he does.

Rhaegar did return to King’s Landing after his Tower of Joy sojourn. Brandon Stark’s squire, Ethan Glover, was the only member of Brandon’s party not to be executed was being held there. Presumably he was in the Black Cells, Vary’s domain, and it’s entirely possible Rhaegar spoke to him there before leaving for the Trident and promising changes on his return. Ethan the proceeded south with Ned after the sack and never lived to ride away from the Tower of Joy.

So I’d say Varys may have had the opportunity to learn about an R+L child, but I don’t really see any reason to believe he did.

Actually, I think there was an inner circle of people who knew where Rhaegar and Lyanna were all along. I suspect that Lyanna had originally been taken as a hostage against the Starks. If this is right, then Varys would have known where they were from the beginning.

[Lollygag]

36 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don't know... Jon could be an interesting ace for Varys to have up his sleeve, and in more than one way. For instance, depending on what Varys' true goal is, Jon could be used as a replacement if need be. Another way is obviously holding a secret over Ned's/the Starks' heads, but this one changes somewhat after Robert's death. I'm sure there are more... 

Beat me to it! 

[kissdbyfire]

13 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

Beat me to it! 

That's why I was reading your post and going, 'Exactly!'; 'Agree!'; 'Spot on!' then!

What I was going to add to that reply and forgot is that if Varys knows and if the idea is to have Jon as a replacement, he will have to have proof. Not many around who can corroborate any claim Varys makes, Jon doesn't have the right look, etc. A dragonseed is one thing, the son of prince Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark, quite another. 

[Lollygag]

33 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

That's why I was reading your post and going, 'Exactly!'; 'Agree!'; 'Spot on!' then!

What I was going to add to that reply and forgot is that if Varys knows and if the idea is to have Jon as a replacement, he will have to have proof. Not many around who can corroborate any claim Varys makes, Jon doesn't have the right look, etc. A dragonseed is one thing, the son of prince Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark, quite another. 

This might be where Varys' dependence on the commoners might come in. He seems to have some sort of understanding with the KL commoners at least. Maybe Varys' say-so is sufficient in some cases?

ACOK Tyrion I

"Do be careful, child," Varys urged. "King's Landing is not wholly safe these days. I know these streets well, and yet I almost feared to come today, alone and unarmed as I was. Lawless men are everywhere in this dark time, oh, yes. Men with cold steel and colder hearts." Where I can come alone and unarmed, others can come with swords in their fists, he was saying.

As for the rest of the kingdom and maybe the role in the story, rightly or wrongly, I’ve had the idea in my head all along that RLJ will be more about giving people who might otherwise not support him as King, LC, otherwise undefined leader in the North which he seems to be now, the excuse to do so. As we’ve seen with TWOTFK, the Dance with Dragons story, etc, people support who they think will benefit them if the eldest trueborn non-crazy son is off the table and will make up whatever reasons to justify that if possible.

If Southerners want to support never-been-south-of-Winterfell-Jon for whatever reason (he’s local as opposed to foreign, seemingly sane, fighting the Others is in the Starks’ wheelhouse, the North is the first line of defense for the rest of the kingdom, etc), then proclaiming that they believe RLJ will allow them to rationalize that choice. This seems more in line with Jon's wildling arc.

 

 

[kissdbyfire]

3 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

This might be where Varys' dependence on the commoners might come in. He seems to have some sort of understanding with the KL commoners at least. Maybe Varys' say-so is sufficient in some cases?

ACOK Tyrion I

 

"Do be careful, child," Varys urged. "King's Landing is not wholly safe these days. I know these streets well, and yet I almost feared to come today, alone and unarmed as I was. Lawless men are everywhere in this dark time, oh, yes. Men with cold steel and colder hearts." Where I can come alone and unarmed, others can come with swords in their fists, he was saying.

 

As for the rest of the kingdom and maybe the role in the story, rightly or wrongly, I’ve had the idea in my head all along that RLJ will be more about giving people who might otherwise not support him as King, LC, otherwise undefined leader in the North which he seems to be now, the excuse to do so. As we’ve seen with TWOTFK, the Dance with Dragons story, etc, people support who they think will benefit them if the eldest trueborn non-crazy son is off the table and will make up whatever reasons to justify that if possible.

 

If Southerners want to support never-been-south-of-Winterfell-Jon for whatever reason (he’s local as opposed to foreign, seemingly sane, fighting the Others is in the Starks’ wheelhouse, the North is the first line of defense for the rest of the kingdom, etc), then proclaiming that they believe RLJ will allow them to rationalize that choice. This seems more in line with Jon's wildling arc.

You make some very good points here, I can see how it could go that way. That said, I don't think Jon will be the king of the 7K (could be wishful thinking, b/c I really don't want to see him as such!) and if he does it won't be for long. I think Jon's role is in the North as the King of Winter.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don't know... Jon could be an interesting ace for Varys to have up his sleeve, and in more than one way. For instance, depending on what Varys' true goal is, Jon could be used as a replacement if need be. Another way is obviously holding a secret over Ned's/the Starks' heads, but this one changes somewhat after Robert's death. I'm sure there are more... 

And that's the critical question. 

[Ygrain]

7 hours ago, bent branch said:

When I compare how I think Ned was told to Kevan in the ADWD epilogue, I mean anonymously. I think Ned was given a written note from one of Varys' little birds. Ned may never think on who told him where Lyanna was because he didn't know where the information came from.

I don't think this is a plausible scenario. Kevan was lured to meet a person he had no reason to suspect, in the same castle. Lyanna had been missing for months, with no communication with Ned that we know of - and he travels hundreds of miles to check out if this anonymous note is true, with only six people as company? 

Furthermore, if Ned didn't know where the info came from, we should have been given a hint that something like that happened - I mean, he's in KL, with vipers all around, and he is never reminded of this weird situation? He never thinks, not once, that there is a person who might know about Jon and thus be a danger to him?

Finally, while Ned may not know who the info was from, Varys knows. Yet, nowhere in his dealings with Ned does he hint at a thing. Not even in his conversation with Illyrio, where a cryptic hint at bastards who are not what they seem might easily pop up. Nothing.

[Lord Varys]

On 20.2.2018 at 3:07 AM, Megorova said:

I never said that I think that Varys is fAegon's father.

Though I also don't believe that his father is Illyrio.

This info is a bit off-topic

It is, and it is a conspiracy theory.

On 20.2.2018 at 3:07 AM, Megorova said:

  Reveal hidden contents

I think that fAegon's parents are Barristan Selmy and Septa Lemore, who is actually Jeyne Swann.

And Barristan is son of Shiera Seastar, that is currently living under name Quaithe.

Shiera Seastar is half-Targaryen herself. I think that she got somehow connected with Blackfyres. Either she had an affair with Aenys Blackfyre, or something like that. If Barristan's father is Aenys, then he is 50% Blackfyre thru his father, and 25% Targaryen thru his mother, and he additionally has 25% of Valyrian genes from Serenei of Lys, his maternal grandmother.

Also I think that Serenei of Lys, last mistress of Aegon IV, is actually Larra Rogare, mother of Aegon IV. Larra for unknown reasons went back to Essos, and then mysteriously died, from unknown causes, when she was only 30 years old. And years later, nearly out of nowhere, appeared this Serenei, that was a witch. So I think that Larra staged her death, and went to Asshai to study magic. Just look at their pictures from the World book, isn't this the same person? And I'm basing it, not only on the fact that both of them are blondes, and both have lilac-colored eyes. They have identical hairline, shape of lips, shape of ears, shape of eyebrows, shape of eyes, shape of nose, shape of chin. It's the same person, just looking older.

And Larra Rogare is daughter of Johanna Swann, the Black Swan of Lys, and one of leaders of the Triarchy. Thus Jeyne Swann is bloodrelated to Barristan, thru his great grandmother Johanna Swann.

I know that that's a lot of speculations, but all of it perfectly fits together.

For example in the story how Viserys II was seized by pirates, and got married with Larra Rogare, there are some missing pieces. Links with info:

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Viserys_II_Targaryen

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Sharako_Lohar

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Triarchy

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Johanna_Swann

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/House_Rogare

"When fifteen years old, Johanna was thus enslaved, and her niggardly uncle Lord Swann refused to pay the ransom. Johanna became a celebrated courtesan known as the Black Swan, and was eventually ruler of Lys in all but name.^[1]"

Viserys was captured by pirates of the Triarchy. Then Tyroshi captain brought Viserys to Sharako Lohar, who was Triarchy's admiral from Lys.

"the direct cause of the breakup of the Triarchy was when a Lyseni admiral was assassinated by a rival over the affections of the Black Swan, Johanna Swann."

"Viserys ended up in Lys under the stewardship of the wealthy Rogare family, whose bank at the time was as powerful as the Iron Bank of Braavos.

From the World book we know that the Head of the Rogare family was Lysandro the Magnificent. His three children were Larra, Lysarro and Moredo. His brother's name was Drazenko. His sister-in-law's name was Aliandra Martell. Name of his son's (Moredo's) sword was Truth, it was a Valyrian steel blade. But we don't know name of his wife, and mother of his three children. Isn't absence of her name SUSPICIOUS? Authors gave us names of his three children, his brother, his sister-in-law, and even name of his brother's sword, but for some reason left out name of his wife, who was mother of Larra, and grandmother of Aegon IV. Why is that? Because even though her name wasn't written in their family tree, the Authors did gave us her name. Lysandro's wife was Johanna Swann, "ruler of Lys in all but name".

1. Johanna's lover was Sharako Lohar <- this is a fact. 2. Viserys II was in possession of Sharako Lohar, prior he ended up in Rogares family <- this is also a fact. 3. Sharako was killed by someone who was in love/was lover of Johanna Swann <- this is also a fact.

1 + 2 + 3 = Johanna's admirer, that killed admiral Lohar, and took from him Viserys II, was Lysandro Rogare. And in the book the name of Lysandro's wife wasn't written, because she kept her maiden name - Swann = she was ruler of Lys in all but name. Because name of rulers of Lys was Rogare. Rogares family bank was richer and more influential, than even Iron Bank of Braavos. Iron Bank is owned by many people, while Rogares bank was a family owned business. Who else may be rulers of Lys, if not the most wealthiest family in the entire world?

Thus sometimes gaps in information are actually clues. Or clues are small pieces of information, that at first glance seems unconnected.

For example - Barristan Selmy in his childhood was squire of Manfred Swann + in 281 he saved Lady Jeyne Swann and her septa from Kingswood Brotherhood + leader of Kingswood Brotherhood was Simon Toyne + Myles Toyne was captain-general of Golden Company, in years when JonCon was with them + Golden Company and JonCon are supporters of fAegon + fAegon was educated by septa Lemore + septa Lemore has stretch marks, that indicate that she gave birth to a child/was pregnant + she doesn't behave like average septa, when she changed her clothes, Tyrion noticed that posing as a daughter of some lord, she looks more natural, than when she's posing as septa = septa Lemore is fAegon's mother, and her real name is Jeyne Swann, and the boy's father is Barristan Selmy.

Illyrio didn't sent Barristan to fAegon, because he can recognize septa Lemore, he met her before, furthermore she used on him love potion, to make him conceive a child with her.   

It doesn't look like Illyrio is fAegon's father. He has the boy's old clothes in his mansion, so what? That means, only that the boy used to live in Illyrio's house, not that he was his son. Also if that boy's mother was Serra, then why did GRRM wrote about stretch marks, that has septa Lemore? Furthermore he gave to us this detail, in between Tyrion's suspicions about fakeness of Aegon's Targaryen identity. Tyrion figured out, that the boy is a fake, and that Lemore is his mother, and that she's not a mere septa, she used to be some lord's daughter. If she is fAegon's mother, then his father is not Illyrio, and not Varys. Varys was castrated long ago, in his childhood, prior he fathered any children. And Illyrio was married with Serra, not with septa Lemore. Septa Lemore has brown hair, thus she is not a Valyrian. But the boy has Valyrian features, thus his father should also have a Valyrian looks. And Barristan Selmy has blue eyes. With ageing eye color becomes paler, thus could be that in his youth, Barristan had indigo-colored eyes, same as fAegon.

All clues indicate that fAegon is not son of Rhaegar.

Not all clues. Just some. Aegon is either Rhaegar's son by Elia or Illyrio's son by an unknown woman (perhaps that Serra woman, perhaps Lemore, perhaps some other woman). Anything isn't worth to be seriously considered.

On 20.2.2018 at 3:07 AM, Megorova said:

And also that Varys and Illyrio created a multi layered legend/cover story, to pose the boy, as a lost Targaryen prince. Why to bother with all this overcomplicated scheming, if they knew about existence of Rhaegar's real son - Jon Snow? Thus all their plotting centered around fAegon is a proof that Varys didn't knew about Jon.

That is simply not the case. It is not really relevant who Aegon truly is nor that Rhaegar actually has a living son in Jon Snow. Aegon is supposed to be Prince Aegon, the son of Rhaegar and Elia. The son the people of Westeros actually knew existed. The son who could return from death because people know he lived. That would be a miracle having the potential to work people into a frenzy if the circumstances are right - and Varys and Illyrio are creating such circumstances.

Jon Snow would just be an obscure and awkward surprise. A boy not looking like a prince, nor being raised to think of himself as a prince, nor being a prince the people knew existed.

What do you think the British would do if they were told that some janitor or clerk was actually the real monarch or Prince of Wales, because George VI or Elizabeth II hid some child in some weirdo plan? Do we think the people would look forward to such a monarch? Of course not.

And if you want to use 'a hidden prince' to undermine or overthrow a usurping dynasty - and that's the entire point of Prince Aegon in Varys and Illyrio's scheme - then you work with a prince who has returned from the dead. That is the kind of miracle they want to believe in.

On 20.2.2018 at 3:07 AM, Megorova said:

And it is totally insignificant that Jon doesn't have Valyrian looks. Because at the time of Jon's birth, there were people alive, that knew that prince Rhaegar was his father - Arthur Dayne, Oswell Whent, Gerold Hightower, Howland Reed, Eddard Stark, Ashara Dayne.

That has nothing to do with anything - most of those people are dead, or responsible for the fact that Lyanna's son never actually became a royal prince. Because they made him a bastard, stealing his identity.

On 20.2.2018 at 3:07 AM, Megorova said:

Arthur Dayne was Rhaegar's closest friend, much closer that Jon Connington. And Ashara Dayne was lady-in-waiting of princess Elia. Oswell Whent was brother of Lord of Harrenhall, where Lyanna and Rhaegar has met for the first time, and near which Lyanna was later kidnapped by Rhaegar. Gerold Hightower was Lord Commander of Kingsguards. Eddard Stark was Lord of Winterfell. Those people were trustworthy and reliable. If all of them said, that Jon is Rhaegar's son, then people wouldn't gave a damn about his non-Valyrian looks.

Oh, when they had done so back when the boy was born I'd gladly concede the point - but they did not. Eddard Stark saw to it that they could not (by killing a significant number of them). And once Ned's great honor and honesty marked Jon Snow as a Stark bastard there was no longer a way back to him becoming a Targaryen prince. Especially not a prince with the potential of being used as a pretender to the Iron Throne by people like Varys.

If Jon had ended up in Sunspear or Dragonstone as Prince X, trueborn son of Prince Rhaegar and Lyanna Stark, Varys and Illyrio might cared for him as a pawn, just as they cared about Viserys III and Daenerys. But with Ned destroying Jon Snow's Targaryen identity he is clearly much more trouble than he could possibly be worth. At least at this time.

I mean, let's think the whole thing through for a moment. Let's assume Varys knows who Jon actually is. Or rather: That he has correctly guessed who and what he is.

He could send out agents successfully stealing the child from Winterfell. But what then? What should he do with him afterwards? Ship him to Essos to raise him alongside Aegon? He could do that - but he wouldn't be all that much of an asset. Aegon is known to the people of Westeros. They want to believe that he might still be alive - and can be nudged into believing that Aegon is Rhaegar's son.

Jon would just be an obscurity. Varys would have to build up propaganda simply to inform people that Rhaegar had another son - and then they would have to convince the people that his Starkish-looking boy was that other son. How easy to you think that would be?

Jon could eventually become an asset once the truth about his identity is out and he acquires some power for himself. But within the framework of Varys and Illyrio's plans Jon Snow is simply not an asset. He is pretty much irrelevant.

On 20.2.2018 at 7:50 AM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I have to wonder about that...the golden company is so loyal to the cause of seating a blackfyre on throne to the point that has been their staple for literally generations-I don't imagine them allowing any of the Blackfyre women to debase themselves to the point of prostitution. If Serra is Illyrio I honestly suspect her taking upon herself to seduce the man specifically to win him over to her family's cause. 

The Blackfyres fought each other, too. Aenys Blackfyre tried to steal the throne of Daemon III Blackfyre, and Maelys Blackfyre killed Daemon (IV) Blackfyre. When the Blackfyres fought each other some of them might have ended up dead or enslaved, the Golden Company sticking with the victorious Blackfyre.

Chances that the Serra woman is a Blackfyre are still very low (although Varys could be a Blackfyre).

On 20.2.2018 at 7:50 AM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

What evidence could he bring? Doubtful  he'd be the first pretender coming to them with tales of him being some long lost son-he doesn't even look the part-even if he is the company's high command would be hesitant no?

Bittersteel didn't exactly die that long ago. In 241 AC, to be exact. Men fighting alongside Bittersteel and Daemon III might have still been around on the Stepstones in 260 AC, and Illyrio was likely born around that time, or perhaps already a young child at that time. That puts only about two decades between Illyrio Mopatis and Bittersteel.

We don't have to assume the Golden Company ever lost track of Bittersteel's descendants - or the various male and female branches of House Blackfyre. Just that things got more complicated the more offspring the descendants of Daemon Blackfyre produced.

My personal guess is that Illyrio Mopatis was the last to learn about his royal ancestry. My guess is that his mother - the Blackfyre-Bittersteel descendant - died early, his father remarried, and he was later cut off from his heritage and thrown out of the house by his step-family. Something like that would have made him a poor bravo.

It would have been Varys who uncovered who Illyrio Mopatis actually was, who gave him back his identity and destiny. And that would also be the reason why Varys chose Illyrio as his protector and partner rather than some other poor bravo.

Of course, it is also possible that Illyrio was born in some other Free City, and only washed up in Pentos due to a succession of misfortunes. We don't know yet. The crucial thing is that the people in Pentos don't know/care from whom Illyrio is descended - else Viserys III and Dany would have heard about it in Pentos from the other magisters.

But the Golden Company might have always known. After all, Illyrio's mother herself might have still known Bittersteel, Daemon (IV), or Maelys the Monstrous.

[Bloodraven's Spider]

17 hours ago, Ygrain said:

You're constantly connecting information that have no connection whatsoever. If Ned tells Jon that he married Ashara, it doesn't follow that they were married (not to mention that committing bigamy is totaly out of character for Ned and there is zero hint at anything like that in his POV). If he tells him that she is dead, there is absolutely no reason for Jon to go looking for her. Going out looking for her when Ned doesn't have a clue where she might be gives exactly zero chance of finding her or what she has been up to.

Also, not sure why you act as if Ned never lied - he admits himself that he has been living lies for fourteen years, and we see him lie to protect Cat and Sansa. Lying about Ashara would be protecting her and Aegon, which is perfectly in line with Ned putting love and family above his honour.

I never once said Ned didn't or hasn't lied. My point is he has all the reason in the world to not tell Jon who his mother is (that applies to both n+a=j and r+l=j). If he tells Jon what does Ned gain? Nothing except a super sad kid because he's been living under false pretenses his entire life and will never know his biological parents respectfully. What does Jon gain? Maybe some closure and major league disappointment especially if it's r+l=j. And if Ned were to tell Jon Ashara is his mother but she died well then you add another to the lie columns...