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Question Does Varys knows who Jon Snow really is?


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48 minutes ago, Bloodraven's Spider said:

I never once said Ned didn't or hasn't lied. My point is he has all the reason in the world to not tell Jon who his mother is (that applies to both n+a=j and r+l=j). If he tells Jon what does Ned gain? Nothing except a super sad kid because he's been living under false pretenses his entire life and will never know his biological parents respectfully. What does Jon gain? Maybe some closure and major league disappointment especially if it's r+l=j. And if Ned were to tell Jon Ashara is his mother but she died well then you add another to the lie columns...

No. There is zero reason not to tell N+A itself because on itself, it presents no risk to anyone. It starts to be a problem only when you come up with additional scenarios like a secret marriage or spiriting away Aegon, which, by the way, have zero textual support, and if you don't tell Jon these, he can come to terms with his identity and his mother's death.

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Ok, lets imagine that Varys did knew truth about Jon, and that he didn't tried to kidnap him, and to use him as their pet project (same as what they do now with fAegon), because Jon didn't looked like Targaryen, or for some other similar reason.

Though the problem is, if he really knew about Jon, then why not to use this knowledge in some other way? Why not to use it, as leverage against Ned? Why not to blackmail Ned into doing whatever Varys wanted? 

Secret like this is priceless. Doesn't even matter that Ned is dead. Because there is at least one more person, that will be willing to pay a lot for this info. Dany needs two men, that are bloodrelated to her. Actually she needs two people with dragonblood, that will be able to tame Targaryen dragons. Thus her two nephews, are the best possible option. At least much better than someone like Ben Plumm.

Varys is a very resoursefull person. He uses everything he knows, to get more power, and more control. All known to him information, is used by him in the most productive way, while he's planning his strategy for the Game of Thrones. He even used a mere whore Shae to kill Tywin, and make Tyrion to join Blackfyres, and Doreah to kill Viserys. If Varys knew about Jon, then why didn't he even tried to use him, as one of his pawns, or as leverage against Ned or Dany?

5 hours ago, Ygrain said:

There is zero reason not to tell N+A itself because on itself, it presents no risk to anyone.

Exactly. If Ashara was Jon's mother, then there's absolutely no reasons, not to tell it to Jon. Or maybe even to Cat. Because what's the harm in Catelyn knowing that Ashara was Jon's mother? She's already (supposedly) dead. Thus she isn't even Cat's rival anymore.

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1 hour ago, Megorova said:

Though the problem is, if he really knew about Jon, then why not to use this knowledge in some other way? Why not to use it, as leverage against Ned? Why not to blackmail Ned into doing whatever Varys wanted?

Why should he if he had other means to manipulate Ned? And again - we don't know whether he did or not, in the end. We are not privy to Ned and Varys' last conversation nor do we know whether the threat against Sansa was enough to convince him to betray his friend and personal honor by publicly lying that Joffrey Baratheon was Robert's trueborn son and rightful heir.

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

Secret like this is priceless. Doesn't even matter that Ned is dead. Because there is at least one more person, that will be willing to pay a lot for this info. Dany needs two men, that are bloodrelated to her. Actually she needs two people with dragonblood, that will be able to tame Targaryen dragons. Thus her two nephews, are the best possible option. At least much better than someone like Ben Plumm.

And Varys knows all that for what reason? And why should he care? If he and Illyrio are Targaryen descendants they could claim some of the dragons, too. Nobody would need Jon Snow.

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

Varys is a very resoursefull person. He uses everything he knows, to get more power, and more control. All known to him information, is used by him in the most productive way, while he's planning his strategy for the Game of Thrones.

Actually, Varys pretty much never threatens people to reveal their secrets, nor does he blackmail anyone as far as we know. He manipulates people on a very subtle level, and he has a history to care about (royal/bastard) children. Why should he endanger Jon Snow's life if he really doesn't need (or care) about that guy?

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

He even used a mere whore Shae to kill Tywin, and make Tyrion to join Blackfyres, and Doreah to kill Viserys.

What? He did not such thing. And he also didn't use Shae to murder Tywin - he used Tyrion to do that.

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

If Varys knew about Jon, then why didn't he even tried to use him, as one of his pawns, or as leverage against Ned or Dany?

He never needed any such leverage. Now that Jon has joined the NW he is of as much political use as Maester Aemon? Does anybody threaten Maester Aemon's life in an attempt to intimidate someone?

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4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Now that Jon has joined the NW he is of as much political use as Maester Aemon? Does anybody threaten Maester Aemon's life in an attempt to intimidate someone?

Even though Jon joined NW, Robb was planning to get him out. Or rather to buy him out. If I remember correctly he planned to give 100 warriors in exchange for Jon's freedoom. And at that time Jon was just a mere bastard. But if he is rightful King of 7K, then his price will rise conciderably. I think Dany will be willing to give 1,000 of her Unsullied, or even 10,000 of her "children", to buy out her nephew.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:
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He even used a mere whore Shae to kill Tywin, and make Tyrion to join Blackfyres, and Doreah to kill Viserys.

What? He did not such thing. And he also didn't use Shae to murder Tywin - he used Tyrion to do that.

On Illyrio's order, Doreah and Jorah manipulated Viserys into dying. They intentionally drove him into madness, were constantly humiliating him and making him angry, pushed him towards becoming alcoholic, and drove a wedge between him and his sister.

There was that one time, when Dany told Jorah, that she wants to go forth alone, and is ordering everyone else to stay behind and wait there. But Jorah went specifically to Viserys, and told him that khaleese is ordering him. And there was that time, when Dany told Doreah to go and invite her brother to have supper together, but Doreah told him that Dany is ordering him to come to her.

And there were many other small things, including what caused Viserys' death - Jorah whispered something to him, and after that Viserys drew out his sword. Not to mention that Viserys wasn't smart enough, to manage to take his sword into Vaes Dothrak, past guards, that were disarming everyone entering the city. Furthermore at that time he was drunk. Thus when Viserys returned from the Western Market, that sword was in his quarters.

Viserys is not a warrior, he never ever used a sword. He was carrying it around to look more impressive. But when he was in Vaes Dothrak, he was frequently going out of the sacret city, to visit Western Market, and to drink there free wine, given to him by traders. I don't think that he was taking that sword with him every time, when he was going out, and giving it back, every time when he was returning. Though the guards didn't let in, anyone who didn't disarmed. Thus it's unlikely that Viserys was Ok with constantly being reminded, that he can't go in, until he will give his sword to guards. Thus not to be bothered with it every time, when he went out, and then returned back in, he stopped carrying the sword with him. And thus all that time, the sword was kept somewhere in a storage, with all other weapons.

In addition to unnecessary bothering, there was no need for Viserys to carry a sword with him, when he went to the Market. Because there was no need for him to impress those traders. They were already giving him free wine, and listening to his babbling. Viserys took that sword from Illyrio, to look more impressive in eyes of Khal Drogo, and other Dothraki. Aside from that, the sword was useless to him, he was not a warrior. Thus he went to Western Market, and when going out of sacred city, didn't bothered with taking his sword from the storage. He went to Market, drunk there a lot of wine. And when he returned to his quarters in Vaes Dothrak, already utterly drunk, his sword was lying there, somewhere on a visible place, where it was hard to miss. Probably together with his best clothes, prepared for him to wear to the feast. So, in his drunken haze, he automatically took that sword, and went to Dany. And then happened what happened, plus Jorah also told him something, that made Viserys to lash out.

Someone stole that sword from storage, where it was kept, and brought it to Viserys' room, and put it together with his attire, that he was going to wear for the feast. Most likely it was done by Jorah. Or maybe by Jorah and Doreah together. She was distracting guards, and he went into storage and took the sword. Then Doreah brought the sword to Viserys' room, and prepared his clothes, together with scabbard and belt.  

Illyrio intentionally sent Doreah to accompany Dany to Vaes Dothrak, to assist Jorah with getting rid of Viserys.

Same thing with Tyrion and Tywin's death - even the smallest details were planned by Varys.

First he manipulated Jaime, into confessing to Tyrion truth about Tysha. To arrange something like that, is easier than stealing candy from a baby. He just told Jaime something like, when Tyrion will escape and leave Westeros, probably they will never see each other again. But Jaime is lucky that he has an opportunity to say goodbye to his little brother. And he has a last chance to tell his brother everything that he couldn't say to him before, or didn't have courage to tell him, or ask him of what he wants to know, but now he should, not to have any regrets left, nothing left unsaid between them, when Tyrion will be gone.

Obviously that Varys knew about Tysha. Thus he manipulated Jaime into starting to think about her, and about Joffrey and whether Tyrion really killed him. And then between Tyrion's cell and the exit from Red Keep, there were placed several strategic details, that drove Tyrion into killing his father.

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An ornate brazier stood to one side, fashioned in the shape of a dragon’s head. The coals in the beast’s yawning mouth had burnt down to embers, but they still glowed with a sullen orange light. Dim as it was, the light was welcome after the blackness of the tunnel.

The juncture was otherwise empty, but on the floor was a mosaic of a three-headed dragon wrought in red and black tiles. Something niggled at Tyrion for a moment. Then it came to him. This is the place Shae told me of, when Varys first led her to my bed. “We are below the Tower of the Hand.”

There was fire placed there, to make Tyrion recognise, that he is near the Tower.

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“Yes.” Frozen hinges screamed in protest as Varys pulled open a long-closed door. Flakes of rust drifted to the floor. “This will take us out to the river.”

Tyrion walked slowly to the ladder, ran his hand across the lowest rung. “This will take me up to my bedchamber.”

“Your lord father’s bedchamber now.”

Then Varys told him, that now that room belongs to his father. Even though he could have left out that detail.

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He looked up the shaft. “How far must I climb?”

My lord, you are too weak for such follies, and there is besides no time. We must go.”

Instead of just saying that they need to go, first he added a small comment, to sting Tyrion - that he is too weak. Probably Tywin was frequently saying to Tyrion stuff like that, that he can't do that, can't do this, too weak, too short, too ugly, etc.

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“I have business above. How far?”

Two hundred and thirty rungs, but whatever you intend—”

“Two hundred and thirty rungs, and then?”

The tunnel to the left, but hear me—”

“How far along to the bedchamber?” Tyrion lifted a foot to the lowest rung of the ladder.

No more than sixty feet. Keep one hand on the wall as you go. You will feel the doors. The bedchamber is the third.” He sighed. “This is folly, my lord. Your brother has given you your life back. Would you cast it away, and mine with it?”

Why was he implying to Tyrion, that Tyrion was intending to do something, something that is a folly. Why did he told him the way to Tywin's chamber, instead of just dragging him out? Because, prior leading Tyrion out, Varys wanted him to kill Tywin.

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Soon he began to hear voices, muffled and indistinct at first, then clearer. He listened more closely. Two of his father’s guardsmen were joking about the Imp’s whore, saying how sweet it would be to fuck her, and how bad she must want a real cock in place of the dwarf’s stunted little thing. “Most like it’s got a crook in it,” said Lum. That led him into a discussion of how Tyrion would die on the morrow. “He’ll weep like a woman and beg for mercy, you’ll see,” Lum insisted. Lester figured he’d face the axe brave as a lion, being a Lannister, and he was willing to bet his new boots on it. “Ah, shit in your boots,” said Lum, “you know they’d never fit these feet o’ mine. Tell you what, if I win you can scour my bloody mail for a fortnight.”

For the space of a few feet, Tyrion could hear every word of their haggling, but when he moved on, the voices faded quickly. Small wonder Varys did not want me to climb the bloody ladder, Tyrion thought, smiling in the dark. Little birds indeed.

Could be that those guards were intentionally placed by Varys, where Tyrion will hear them. And also they were instructed, what they should be saying. That they should talk about Shae. Then Tyrion came into Tywin's room and found her there, in his father's bed. So of course it drove him mad. After hearing from Jaime about Tysha, Shae's presence in his father's bed, was the last drop for Tyrion's self control.

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When he found himself in what had once been his bedchamber, he stood a long moment, breathing the silence. Had his father heard? Would he reach for his sword, raise the hue and cry?

“M’lord?” a woman’s voice called.

That might have hurt me once, when I still felt pain. The first step was the hardest. When he reached the bed Tyrion pulled the draperies aside and there she was, turning toward him with a sleepy smile on her lips. It died when she saw him. She pulled the blankets up to her chin, as if that would protect her.

“Were you expecting someone taller, sweetling?”

Varys placed Shae into Tywin's bedroom, for Tyrion to kill her first. And the chain on her neck, was also part of the plan. Golden chain made of hands, on the neck of his ex-lover, that is currently lover of his father, who also took away from him the Hand's post. It's unlikely that Tywin gave that chain to Shae, more likely that someone else suggested to her, to do this naughty thing - to wait for Tywin, naked, in his bed, wearing only Hand's chain.

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Big wet tears filled her eyes. “I never meant those things I said, the queen made me. Please. Your father frightens me so.” She sat up, letting the blanket slide down to her lap. Beneath it she was naked, but for the chain about her throat. A chain of linked golden hands, each holding the next.

“My lady Shae,” Tyrion said softly. “All the time I sat in the black cell waiting to die, I kept remembering how beautiful you were. In silk or roughspun or nothing at all…”

“M’lord will be back soon. You should go, or… did you come to take me away?”

“Did you ever like it?” He cupped her cheek, remembering all the times he had done this before. All the times he’d slid his hands around her waist, squeezed her small firm breasts, stroked her short dark hair, touched her lips, her cheeks, her ears. All the times he had opened her with a finger to probe her secret sweetness and make her moan. “Did you ever like my touch?”

“More than anything,” she said, “my giant of Lannister.”

That was the worst thing you could have said, sweetling.

Tyrion slid a hand under his father’s chain, and twisted. The links tightened, digging into her neck. “For hands of gold are always cold, but a woman’s hands are warm,” he said. He gave cold hands another twist as the warm ones beat away his tears.

And then the chest was strategically put below crossbow. Chest tall enough, for Tyrion to reach the weapon, that he is able to use.

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A lion-headed mace, a poleaxe, and a crossbow had been hung on the walls. The poleaxe would be clumsy to wield inside a castle, and the mace was too high to reach, but a large wood-and-iron chest had been placed against the wall directly under the crossbow.

The guards did what they were ordered to do, to make Tyrion overhear them, and then went away, leaving Tywin unprotected.

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If Lum and Lester emerged from wherever they were talking, he’d never have time to reload, but at least he’d take one down to hell with him. Lum, if he had a choice. You’ll have to clean your own mail, Lum. You lose.

Waddling to the door, he listened a moment, then eased it open slowly. A lamp burned in a stone niche, casting wan yellow light over the empty hallway.

Why did they left? They were supposed to guard Tywin.

Just compare death of Viserys and Tywin, with death of Kevan Lannister. The difference is that, in case with Kevan, the readers were shown the conspiracy, while it was in the process, not only the ending result of it, like GRRM did with two first deaths.

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8 hours ago, Megorova said:

Even though Jon joined NW, Robb was planning to get him out. Or rather to buy him out. If I remember correctly he planned to give 100 warriors in exchange for Jon's freedoom. And at that time Jon was just a mere bastard. But if he is rightful King of 7K, then his price will rise conciderably. I think Dany will be willing to give 1,000 of her Unsullied, or even 10,000 of her "children", to buy out her nephew.

Robb's plans have nothing to do with Dany or Aegon's potential plans - and they are completely unconnected and irrelevant when we talk about Varys' potential plans in relation to Jon Snow. Which is what we do here.

Maester Aemon was also the rightful King of the Andals, the First Men, and the Rhoynar. And do you know how many people tried to free him from his NW vows? Absolutely no one!

Neither Dany nor Aegon nor Viserys III nor Varys actually do need Jon Snow, no matter who he actually is. From their point of view he would be little more than another Targaryen, possibly even one too much.

8 hours ago, Megorova said:

On Illyrio's order, Doreah and Jorah manipulated Viserys into dying. They intentionally drove him into madness, were constantly humiliating him and making him angry, pushed him towards becoming alcoholic, and drove a wedge between him and his sister.

There is no evidence for any of that. And Varys/Illyrio have no motivation to want or cause Viserys III's death. At least not while the Dothraki invasion isn't yet underway.

8 hours ago, Megorova said:

Same thing with Tyrion and Tywin's death - even the smallest details were planned by Varys.

Oh, it is pretty clear that Varys takes a way that allows Tyrion to recognize the place between the Tower of the Hand (he would have heard that Shae told him about that via the little birds). And it is also crystal clear that Varys gives Tyrion precise directions to the Hand's bedchamber so that he can get there. And it is also quite clear that he would have been aware of the fact that Shae was with Tywin at the time - although it is not clear that Varys brought her into the tower, the way he earlier did it for Tyrion.

Varys wanted Tyrion to kill Tywin, yes.

But there is no reason to believe that he manipulated Jaime into revealing stuff about Tysha. Varys might not have known the truth about that. Varys would have been pretty convinced that Jaime would want to save Tyrion, though (because he knew he loved him) and thus allowed himself to be surprised and threatened by Jaime, drawing him into his scheme. That way Jaime Lannister is now also partially responsible for the murder of his own father, which drove a first serious wedge between Jaime and his family - he has to hide the truth of his involvement not only from Cersei but also from Kevan, Genna, and all his other relations and friends.

The Tysha story in combination with Shae in the bed was nearly too much for Tyrion. It pretty much broke him and made him the self-destructing drunkard we see in ADwD. Varys likely assumed that the whole mock trial would have been enough to pay his father a last visit - and Shae up there would be enough to trigger the murder.

8 hours ago, Megorova said:

Obviously that Varys knew about Tysha.

Honestly, how could he have known about that? Even if he learned that Tysha was just some crofter's daughter, he wouldn't have been able to really learn that she had been truly in love with Tyrion, and not just his gold or the Lannister name.

8 hours ago, Megorova said:

Varys placed Shae into Tywin's bedroom, for Tyrion to kill her first. And the chain on her neck, was also part of the plan. Golden chain made of hands, on the neck of his ex-lover, that is currently lover of his father, who also took away from him the Hand's post. It's unlikely that Tywin gave that chain to Shae, more likely that someone else suggested to her, to do this naughty thing - to wait for Tywin, naked, in his bed, wearing only Hand's chain.

That doesn't make any sense in relation to the things Shae actually says when she wakes up. She knows where she is, and she is not confused about what she is doing there. She is not nervous whether she will be able to please Lord Tywin, or anything. The sex is already over. Not to mention that she is pretty clear about the fact that Tywin scares her - as he should. Any man fucking the former lover of his own son in the very night before that son's execution at his father's command has very deep and serious issues.

The idea that anybody but Tywin could have given the chain of the Hand to Shae also makes little sense. It is the chain of the Hand. The Hand usually wears that thing. Shae took it once when she was surprising Tyrion in his bed, but this was at a point when they had been lovers for quite some time already. She knew what she could do with him. But there is no reason to assume that she would have dared crap like that with Tywin.

In addition, the fact that Shae wore the chain during (and after) having sex with Tywin gives us a strong clue what might have been going on there. Tywin's beloved wife Joanna supposedly ruled him - which could have literal meaning in the sense that Tywin was into BDSM stuff. Tyrion killed Joanna. Tyrion might be the son of Aerys. If that's the case - if Aerys had Joanna first (or last) - then we have a very strong motivation as to why Tywin might have fucked Shae in that crucial night. It might have been a way to get back at Aerys and Tyrion (as Aerys' son).

Shae may have been forced to play both Joanna Lannister and 'the Imp's whore' in whatever game they played, explaining why Shae claims to fear Tywin.

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On ‎2‎/‎17‎/‎2018 at 7:50 PM, A Ghost of Someone said:

I am actually surprised not more people have hinted that they suspect Jon Snow of being someone other than Ned's love child with an unknown woman but then again, him taking the black makes Jon irrelevant in the World of Westeros.

I doubt if any of them care, since it doesn't impact their lives personally .

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3 hours ago, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

I doubt if any of them care, since it doesn't impact their lives personally .

that and being in the Night's Watch is like an honorable death row/ life without ever getting out existence. Removed from society. Cannot inherit or take a family or anything else.

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On 22.02.2018 at 11:37 AM, Lord Varys said:

That doesn't make any sense in relation to the things Shae actually says when she wakes up. She knows where she is, and she is not confused about what she is doing there.

I didn't mean that she was literally placed there. I meant metaphorically. Varys sort of served a role of a pimp, that brought together Shae and Tywin.

Furthermore, I think that it was also Varys, who brought Tyrion and Shae together. Varys is a leader of Blackfyres and Golden Company. Bronn is a sellsword. I think he is working for Varys. He was then, at that inn, because on Varys' order, he and Chiggen were spying there, either after Tyrion, or after Catelyn. Shae was also hired by Varys, to spy after Tyrion, and report everything about him. Though could be that she herself, didn't even knew who really hired her. When Bronn brought Shae to Tyrion, it was done to spy after him. And to be able to get from Shae information about Tyrion, Varys later "helped" Tyrion to hide Shae, when he brought her with him to King's Landing. But Varys' was just making sure, that she will stay with Tyrion, for Varys to have access to him.

I think that Bronn is a Stark, Eddard's cousin. His grandfather is Rodrik Stark, the Wandering Wolf. We sort of saw him twice:

AGOT, Dany VIII (glass candle):

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No, Dany wanted to say, no, not that, you mustn’t, but when she opened her mouth, a long wail of pain escaped, and the sweat broke over her skin. What was wrong with them, couldn’t they see! Inside the tent the shapes were dancing, circling the brazier and the bloody bath, dark against the sandsilk, and some did not look human. She glimpsed the shadow of a great wolf, and another like a man wreathed in flames.

ADWD, Tyrion XII (book of Second Sons):

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“The Second Sons are amongst the oldest of the free companies,” Inkpots said as he was turning pages. “This is the fourth book. The names of every man to serve with us are written here. When they joined, where they fought, how long they served, the manner of their deaths—all in the book. You will find famous names in here, some from your Seven Kingdoms. Aegor Rivers served a year with us, before he left to found the Golden Company. Bittersteel, you call him. The Bright Prince, Aerion Targaryen, he was a Second Son. And Rodrik Stark, the Wandering Wolf, him as well.

Why not? Bronn's mercantile motivation is too obvious to be real. Thus he's just using it as his fasade, to cover his real motives. But this fasade is also a hint from author, about Bronn's real identity. He's a "wolf".

Thus if my theory about Bronn is correct (that he's working for Varys), then Shae was also not just some random whore. I'm not saying that she was some sort of undercover agent, she was hired just to spy after Tyrion.

On 22.02.2018 at 11:37 AM, Lord Varys said:

The idea that anybody but Tywin could have given the chain of the Hand to Shae also makes little sense. It is the chain of the Hand. The Hand usually wears that thing. Shae took it once when she was surprising Tyrion in his bed

I also didn't meant that someone else gave that chain to Shae. Most likely, after they already had sex, and Tywin went to bathroom, she took his chain, that was lying amongst his other clothes, and wore it, to surprise Tywin, when he will get back.

On 22.02.2018 at 11:37 AM, Lord Varys said:
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Obviously that Varys knew about Tysha.

Honestly, how could he have known about that?

From one of those men:

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He had been thinking of those guardsmen during his flight, trying to recall how many there had been. You would think he might remember that, but no. A dozen? A score? A hundred? He could not say. They had all been grown men, tall and strong … though all men were tall to a dwarf of thirteen years. Tysha knew their number. Each of them had given her a silver stag, so she would only need to count the coins. A silver for each and a gold for me. His father had insisted that he pay her too. A Lannister always pays his debts.

 

On 22.02.2018 at 11:37 AM, Lord Varys said:

But there is no reason to believe that he manipulated Jaime into revealing stuff about Tysha. Varys might not have known the truth about that.

This was one of the most important events, that happened in Tyrion's life. What happened with Tysha, left a permanent mark on Tyrion's personality (whom at that time was only 13 years old), and on his relationship with his father. So when Tyrion started to participate in The Game of Thrones, Varys found out about him, everything there was to know about him.

On 22.02.2018 at 11:37 AM, Lord Varys said:

There is no evidence for any of that. And Varys/Illyrio have no motivation to want or cause Viserys III's death. At least not while the Dothraki invasion isn't yet underway.

There is evidence, plenty of it. They did had motivation to get rid of Viserys, he was an obstacle for fAegon's appearance on political stage. Illyrio himself said to Tyrion, that he didn't expected that Dany will live for long, when she departed with Dothraki. Thus he and Varys, when giving her to Khal Drogo, didn't really expected that Khal Drogo will give them his warriors, as a payment for Dany.

On 22.02.2018 at 11:37 AM, Lord Varys said:

Robb's plans have nothing to do with Dany or Aegon's potential plans - and they are completely unconnected and irrelevant when we talk about Varys' potential plans in relation to Jon Snow. Which is what we do here.

If Varys knew about Jon, then he would have used him. Jon is a valuable resourse, so not to use him, would be a waste.

People here mostly gave one of this reasons, why Jon is useless to Varys - 1. He doesn't look like Targaryen, 2. Jon is a watcher, thus he is useless, because he can't leave The Wall. Contrarguments - 1. Dragons can prove that Jon is a Targaryen, so his looks are irrelevant. Furthermore, if Varys somehow found out who Jon really is, then the sourse of this information was not Ned. It's either Ashara Dayne (prior her death), or Howland Reed, or one of those three Kingsguards (prior their death at the TofJ), or relatives of those Kingsguards, or someone else. So if there was a way for Varys to find out truth about Jon, then there's also should be a way to prove it to others, even without dragons. 2. Robb was going to buy Jon out of Night's Watch, which means that something like that can be done. Son of Rhaegar Targaryen is more important than a hundred of some small fryes. Thus even though Jon is a Watcher, this obstacle could be eliminated.

On 22.02.2018 at 11:37 AM, Lord Varys said:

Maester Aemon was also the rightful King of the Andals, the First Men, and the Rhoynar. And do you know how many people tried to free him from his NW vows? Absolutely no one!

Aemon didn't wanted to be King. He lived for many years as part of NW, and there was absolutely nothing for him left in the outside world. While Jon is still missing Winterfell, even though he wasn't very happy there, and he still wants to see his sisters again (or at least Arya). When Aemon joined NW, he knew who he was, and he knew what he was giving away. But Jon didn't knew. He went to The Wall, only because after Ned's leave from Winterfell, there was no more place left there for Jon, Catelyn wanted him gone.

On 22.02.2018 at 11:37 AM, Lord Varys said:

Neither Dany nor Aegon nor Viserys III nor Varys actually do need Jon Snow, no matter who he actually is. From their point of view he would be little more than another Targaryen, possibly even one too much.

Dragon has three heads. Dany has three dragons. Thus she needs two more Targaryens. fAegon is a fake, he's a Blackfyre. Thus one of the other two dragonriders, will be Jon, and (probably) Rhaego. When the Others will come to 7K, and Dany will urgently need one more Targaryen, then, if Varys do knows who Jon is, and fAegon project will end in total fiasco, then Varys can use Jon as his trump card to negotiate with Dany. He can buy his life with this bargain chip. When Dany will slay a lie about mummer's dragon, then Varys' life will depend on whether he will be able to give Dany something, in exchange for sparing his life.

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On ‎2‎/‎22‎/‎2018 at 8:33 AM, A Ghost of Someone said:

that and being in the Night's Watch is like an honorable death row/ life without ever getting out existence. Removed from society. Cannot inherit or take a family or anything else.

Well, Robb seemed to think that Jon could inherit Winterfell. It might have just been hubris, but I'm wondering if there is precedent in the NW that, when no other candidate is available, a watchman's vows can be set aside for the good of the realm. It certainly wouldn't help the NW to have a civil war in the north over who is going to rule in Winterfell.

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2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Well, Robb seemed to think that Jon could inherit Winterfell. It might have just been hubris, but I'm wondering if there is precedent in the NW that, when no other candidate is available, a watchman's vows can be set aside for the good of the realm. It certainly wouldn't help the NW to have a civil war in the north over who is going to rule in Winterfell.

There are  precedents of brothers being released from their oaths that apparently no one knows about- there was talk of Aemon having the high septon release him from his vows-but Jon's case cannot be argued for the realm convincing given it,d to prolong a civil war, and the watch would be much more secure the sooner the war ends.

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3 hours ago, Megorova said:

I didn't mean that she was literally placed there. I meant metaphorically. Varys sort of served a role of a pimp, that brought together Shae and Tywin.

Oh, okay. There are people who actually believe that. However, Tywin had more than enough opportunity to notice Shae. She gave a rather poignant testimony during the trial, did she not? He didn't need Varys to get a woman inside his bedchamber. He was Tywin Lannister. He could do whatever the hell he wanted. Now, it is still possible that he may have made use Varys for that, but I'm not sure he trusted him enough to arrange stuff like that for him.

But Varys would have known that Shae was up there, of course.

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Furthermore, I think that it was also Varys, who brought Tyrion and Shae together. Varys is a leader of Blackfyres and Golden Company. Bronn is a sellsword. I think he is working for Varys. He was then, at that inn, because on Varys' order, he and Chiggen were spying there, either after Tyrion, or after Catelyn. Shae was also hired by Varys, to spy after Tyrion, and report everything about him. Though could be that she herself, didn't even knew who really hired her. When Bronn brought Shae to Tyrion, it was done to spy after him. And to be able to get from Shae information about Tyrion, Varys later "helped" Tyrion to hide Shae, when he brought her with him to King's Landing. But Varys' was just making sure, that she will stay with Tyrion, for Varys to have access to him.

That sounds like a conspiracy theory to me. Shae eventually became Varys' pawn, yes, but she clearly wasn't in the beginning.

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I think that Bronn is a Stark, Eddard's cousin. His grandfather is Rodrik Stark, the Wandering Wolf.

That is an even greater conspiracy theory.

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I also didn't meant that someone else gave that chain to Shae. Most likely, after they already had sex, and Tywin went to bathroom, she took his chain, that was lying amongst his other clothes, and wore it, to surprise Tywin, when he will get back.

It is not very likely that Tywin was the kind of guy you pull something like that off. If a woman he fucks wears his chain of office she does so because he decided - he wanted - her to wear it. Because it was an important prop in whatever sexual game they were playing.

The idea that Shae would dare *surprise* Tywin by putting her filthy fingers on the chain of the Hand without Tywin's explicit permission is very far-fetched. Tywin isn't exactly Tyrion. Tyrion bought himself some sexy girlfriend with Shae. He wanted to be surprised, entertained, and aroused. Shae slowly figured out what he preferred.

But whatever Tywin wanted Shae for - and that is indeed the crucial question here - it wouldn't have had anything to do with her playing the rose of his girlfriend.

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From one of those men:

Nope, those men might know about the Tysha affair as such - and Varys, too - but that's not the point. The point is that it would be very difficult for Varys (or anyone) to figure/really know that Tysha wasn't a whore (or not after Tyrion's name and gold), and, of course, that she had been apparently really been in love with Tyrion. This is something only Jaime and Tywin likely knew.

In that sense, Varys would have no reason to believe that Jaime owed a debt to Tyrion - or that he would have wanted to talk about that.

But he could make a reasonable guess that Jaime - being the loving brother that he is - would indeed try to free Tyrion.

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This was one of the most important events, that happened in Tyrion's life. What happened with Tysha, left a permanent mark on Tyrion's personality (whom at that time was only 13 years old), and on his relationship with his father. So when Tyrion started to participate in The Game of Thrones, Varys found out about him, everything there was to know about him.

Tyrion only became a player in ACoK. Chances are about zero that Varys had the time and resources to investigate Tyrion's past in Casterly Rock and the West during the War of the Five Kings - and even if he did, there wouldn't have been any good information on the thing we are talking about here.

More importantly, one assumes there aren't many informers and agents of the Crown in Casterly Rock. The Lannisters are rich as hell - it is not likely that their servants need the coin of the Crown.

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There is evidence, plenty of it. They did had motivation to get rid of Viserys, he was an obstacle for fAegon's appearance on political stage. Illyrio himself said to Tyrion, that he didn't expected that Dany will live for long, when she departed with Dothraki. Thus he and Varys, when giving her to Khal Drogo, didn't really expected that Khal Drogo will give them his warriors, as a payment for Dany.

That is wrong, considering that Varys and Illyrio did indeed expect Drogo to invade (as per their conversation in AGoT) and did indeed everything in their power to ensure that it would happen. Even the officers of the Golden Company knew that they would eventually join King Viserys III and Khal Drogo.

Dany wasn't all that important. She was the coin Illyrio and Viserys used to bind Drogo to them. She was expendable - Viserys not so much.

How Aegon figures into a game where Viserys III is still around, too, is an important question. But the only information we have at this point indicates that the Dothraki, Viserys III, and the Golden Company were supposed to work together. One assumes that Aegon was planned come in as the savior after Viserys and the Dothraki had toppled the Baratheon regime in Westeros, but that's not really clear.

If Viserys III had been an obstacle for Illyrio's plans he could have just killed the man while he was his guest (just as he could have killed Daenerys). In fact, he could have married Dany to Drogo to arrange him supporting Dany's nephew, Prince Aegon. That could have worked just as well. But there is likely a reason why this wasn't done.

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If Varys knew about Jon, then he would have used him. Jon is a valuable resourse, so not to use him, would be a waste.

That's the thing:

Jon Snow isn't a valuable resource because Jon Snow is literally a nobody. Eddard Stark made him a motherless bastard. He isn't a prince, and he cannot even play the role of a prince thanks to his looks.

Even the Aegon plan needed a lot of preparation, especially where the political situation of Westeros is concerned. But he can succeed because he looks like a Targaryen and claims to be a Targaryen prince everybody has heard about.

Jon Snow couldn't possibly do that.

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Contrarguments - 1. Dragons can prove that Jon is a Targaryen, so his looks are irrelevant.

Dragons could at best prove that Jon may have a Targaryen ancestor. But so what? Perhaps his mother was some descendants of one of the baseborn bastards of Aegon the Unworthy. There should be hundreds such people running around in Westeros.

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Furthermore, if Varys somehow found out who Jon really is, then the sourse of this information was not Ned. It's either Ashara Dayne (prior her death), or Howland Reed, or one of those three Kingsguards (prior their death at the TofJ), or relatives of those Kingsguards, or someone else. So if there was a way for Varys to find out truth about Jon, then there's also should be a way to prove it to others, even without dragons.

Nope, Varys could just have looked at the facts, concluding that this bastard of Eddard Stark's was likely not really Eddard Stark's bastard.

You do recall that the identity of Jon Snow's mother is a mystery. And mysteries are intriguing. Now, does anybody think Ned Stark had a rock-solid cover story in place to explain the absence of his bastard's mother? I don't think so. There may have been an official story - the Wylla woman Ned mentioned when talking to Robert - but if Varys had tracked her down he would have had another piece to the real puzzle of Jon Snow's true identity, not some smokescreen that would draw him off the scent.

Now, I'm not saying he did investigate Jon. I'm just saying it should have been painstakingly easy for somebody like Varys to figure the truth out. Because this whole Jon Snow thing isn't that great of mystery. It just appears that way because the author deliberately keeps information from us. But Varys should have all the information on the matter we lack - and then some.

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2. Robb was going to buy Jon out of Night's Watch, which means that something like that can be done.

Nope, it doesn't mean that it can be done. It just means Robb thought he could try to do it. And that he could have done. I don't think he would have succeeded, especially not with this tasteful and presumptuous approach of actually buying Jon. The man swore a vow. A vow is a vow is a vow.

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Aemon didn't wanted to be King. He lived for many years as part of NW, and there was absolutely nothing for him left in the outside world.

LOL, you do know that Aemon was in his thirties when he took the black, right? The man had most of his life ahead of him and the right of primogeniture gave him a stronger claim to the Iron Throne than Aegon V.

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While Jon is still missing Winterfell, even though he wasn't very happy there, and he still wants to see his sisters again (or at least Arya). When Aemon joined NW, he knew who he was, and he knew what he was giving away. But Jon didn't knew. He went to The Wall, only because after Ned's leave from Winterfell, there was no more place left there for Jon, Catelyn wanted him gone.

That is irrelevant to the question as to whether anybody would want to use Jon as a pretender/claimant after he had taken the black. Nobody would, because such people are essentially living corpses. They no longer have any political value.

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Dragon has three heads. Dany has three dragons. Thus she needs two more Targaryens. fAegon is a fake, he's a Blackfyre. Thus one of the other two dragonriders, will be Jon, and (probably) Rhaego. When the Others will come to 7K, and Dany will urgently need one more Targaryen, then, if Varys do knows who Jon is, and fAegon project will end in total fiasco, then Varys can use Jon as his trump card to negotiate with Dany. He can buy his life with this bargain chip. When Dany will slay a lie about mummer's dragon, then Varys' life will depend on whether he will be able to give Dany something, in exchange for sparing his life.

If Aegon is a Blackfyre descendant he can claim a dragon just as well as Jon Snow could. He could be one of the dragon heads, too, you know. He could have as much dragonlord blood - or even more than Jon Snow and Daenerys both (after all, Daeron II, Maekar, Aegon V, and Rhaegar all had women who weren't exactly keeping the blood of the dragon pure - perhaps the Blackfyre continued to marry their own in their exile?).

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On 2/20/2018 at 3:21 PM, kissdbyfire said:

You make some very good points here, I can see how it could go that way. That said, I don't think Jon will be the king of the 7K (could be wishful thinking, b/c I really don't want to see him as such!) and if he does it won't be for long. I think Jon's role is in the North as the King of Winter. :dunno:

 

I agree that Jon's role is in the north. Since that proposal letter was revealed, I've realized that Jon's parentage may be important only to him and/or the prophecy. I don't think the Iron Throne is going to be a part of his story.

On 2/20/2018 at 8:57 PM, Ygrain said:

I don't think this is a plausible scenario. Kevan was lured to meet a person he had no reason to suspect, in the same castle. Lyanna had been missing for months, with no communication with Ned that we know of - and he travels hundreds of miles to check out if this anonymous note is true, with only six people as company? 

Furthermore, if Ned didn't know where the info came from, we should have been given a hint that something like that happened - I mean, he's in KL, with vipers all around, and he is never reminded of this weird situation? He never thinks, not once, that there is a person who might know about Jon and thus be a danger to him?

Finally, while Ned may not know who the info was from, Varys knows. Yet, nowhere in his dealings with Ned does he hint at a thing. Not even in his conversation with Illyrio, where a cryptic hint at bastards who are not what they seem might easily pop up. Nothing.

I have thought a lot about your comments and before I address them, I want to reiterate Ned's state of mind at the time. Ned was fresh off the Battle on the Trident. Robert had been injured and Ned rushed ahead of him to secure Kingslanding. Upon his arrival he saw Lannister banners flying over the city and Jaime on the throne. Once Robert arrived and the Targaryen children were placed before him (to Robert's pleasure), Ned had become so disgusted by it all his relationship with Robert was broken. If not for their shared grief over Lyanna, Robert and Ned's relationship would not have recovered. So far nothing I've said should raise any controversy. I'm only trying remind of the situation in KL.

A piece of information that is noticeably absent is what Ned thought about where Lyanna might be. Therefore, we have no idea if he thought she might be in KL or if he thought she might be elsewhere. This is a piece of information which should be included in the story, but I think knowing this would tell the readers more about the situation than GRRM wants revealed at this point.

Moving on to your objections, which I read as being:

-Ned wouldn't trust the information from an anonymous letter.

At this point Ned doesn't actually trust Robert. Robert is showing a side that Ned doesn't really recognize or like. The old regime has fallen and the new regime is being hammered out. In this roiling mass of shifting loyalties Ned receives a note, "If you wish to find your sister, go to the northernmost watchtower of Prince's Pass." While these may not be the exact words, the meaning will be very similar. It is a bare bones message delivered in a manner that does not draw attention to the sender. Notice the only information in the message is sister and location. Also, Ned doesn't rush over there to find Lyanna, he waits until the last issues of the war have been resolved (basically doing what we see Jaime doing in AFFC). Finally, Ned has no other clues so why not check it out?

-Taking only six people with him.

I think the novels themselves address this issue fully. Ned didn't think he would encounter any opposition to retrieving Lyanna.

-Ned might think the anonymous letter writer is malevolent.

Why would he when the letter writer helped him find Lyanna?

-Ned might think the letter writer knows of Jon's existence and means Jon harm.

The letter gives no hint of Lyanna being pregnant, so what evidence is there that the letter writer knew anything more than Lyanna's location. And again, why would Ned think the letter writer was malevolent? Ned would see this person as helping.

-Varys doesn't reveal that he knows Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna.

In the scene with Varys and Ned in the dungeon, it seems that Varys may be trying to find out about Jon without giving away anything of what he knows. At least, that is how it seems to me. So I speculate that Varys either knows or suspects that Jon is really the son of Rhaegar and Elia. Well, I guess GRRM has revealed as much as he wants to on this issue so far. This is what these discussions often boil down to, one person presenting a scenario and the other person saying, "I want to see this EXACT type of evidence before I'll believe it." That's fine. You know best for you.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

However, Tywin had more than enough opportunity to notice Shae. She gave a rather poignant testimony during the trial, did she not? He didn't need Varys to get a woman inside his bedchamber. He was Tywin Lannister. He could do whatever the hell he wanted. Now, it is still possible that he may have made use Varys for that, but I'm not sure he trusted him enough to arrange stuff like that for him.

Not Tywin asked Varys to arrange for him a randevu with Shae. On the contrary - Varys manipulated Tywin into noticing Shae, and taking her as his lover.

Furthermore, I think that after Tyrion sent Shae away, she went to Varys. And on Varys' order she went to that trial, and told to judges what Varys instructed her to tell. He planned all of it beforehand - Shae's participation in Tyrion's trial; Shae becoming Tywin's lover; Jaime releasing Tyrion from the dungeon; Tyrion, on the way out of Red Keep, going to kill his father, and hearing those guards gossipping about Shae, and then Tyrion seeing Shae in Tywin's bed, wearing Hand's chain; Tyrion killing Shae with that chain, and then his father with a crossbow. And Varys killed Kevan also with a crossbow, to make Cersei believe that it was also done by Tyrion. Because she's nearly completely gone mad, and thinks that Tyrion is hiding in the walls.

AFFC, Cersei I:

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He is in the walls. He killed Father as he killed Mother, as he killed Joff. The dwarf would come for her as well, the queen knew, just as the old woman had promised her in the dimness of that tent.

Even before that, she had nightmares, that Tyrion will strangle her with his hands. Could be that she told about this to someone, and little birds in the walls heard it, and reported to Varys. Cersei thinks that Joffrey was poisoned by Tyrion, with a strangler. Varys arranged for Tyrion to strangle Shae, with a chain made of hands. Tyrion killed Tywin with a crossbow. Varys killed Kevan with a crossbow. But Cersei will think that it was done by Tyrion, and that he's coming after her, to strangle her.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

t is not very likely that Tywin was the kind of guy you pull something like that off. If a woman he fucks wears his chain of office she does so because he decided - he wanted - her to wear it. Because it was an important prop in whatever sexual game they were playing.

The idea that Shae would dare *surprise* Tywin by putting her filthy fingers on the chain of the Hand without Tywin's explicit permission is very far-fetched.

That's why I said, that it wasn't even her own idea to do this. She was instructed by Varys, what she should do.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tyrion only became a player in ACoK. Chances are about zero that Varys had the time and resources to investigate Tyrion's past in Casterly Rock and the West during the War of the Five Kings - and even if he did, there wouldn't have been any good information on the thing we are talking about here.

More importantly, one assumes there aren't many informers and agents of the Crown in Casterly Rock. The Lannisters are rich as hell - it is not likely that their servants need the coin of the Crown.

Tyrion became player, or rather one of chess pieces, when Little Finger has sent assassin after Bran, with supposedly Tyrion's dagger. When Catelyn came to King's Landing, to inform Eddard about what happened, and LF blamed Tyrion, at that time Varys already knew about this. He knew that Catelyn will go after Tyrion. And thus Varys has sent Bronn to spy either after Cat, or after Tyrion. He was supposed to free Tyrion, to become his companion, and to use any means to get maximum information on him. That's when Shae was brought in. By Bronn. On Varys' order.

Could be that Tyrion told Shae about Tysha. So Shae was Varys' source of this story from Tyrion's past.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is wrong, considering that Varys and Illyrio did indeed expect Drogo to invade (as per their conversation in AGoT) and did indeed everything in their power to ensure that it would happen.

That was only after Dany, not only managed to survive in the Dothraki Sea, but also became pregnant, and thus Khal Drogo started to cherish her. She became important to him, so that's when appeared Illyrio's expectations, that Dothraki will join the Great Invasion alongside Golden Company.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Dany wasn't all that important. She was the coin Illyrio and Viserys used to bind Drogo to them. She was expendable - Viserys not so much.

They arranged that voyage to Vaes Dothrak, to get rid of Viserys. They didn't needed Targaryen King, they had fAegon.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

How Aegon figures into a game where Viserys III is still around, too, is an important question. But the only information we have at this point indicates that the Dothraki, Viserys III, and the Golden Company were supposed to work together.

Viserys was too stupid, too vain, too brazen, and too cowardly, for Dothraki to work with him, or to see him as their partner.

Varys planned for fAegon to appear on stage, only after they will dispose Viserys.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If Viserys III had been an obstacle for Illyrio's plans he could have just killed the man while he was his guest (just as he could have killed Daenerys). In fact, he could have married Dany to Drogo to arrange him supporting Dany's nephew, Prince Aegon. That could have worked just as well. But there is likely a reason why this wasn't done.

This is exactly what was done. They got rid of Viserys. And then they were going to reveal to Dany, that she has a nephew - fAegon. And thus they were expecting that Dany's Dothraki will join fAegon. And that fAegon will marry with Martell princess, and thus they will have on their side Golden Company, Dany's Dothraki, and Dornish troops.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Nope, it doesn't mean that it can be done. It just means Robb thought he could try to do it. And that he could have done. I don't think he would have succeeded, especially not with this tasteful and presumptuous approach of actually buying Jon. The man swore a vow. A vow is a vow is a vow.

I will quote characters' opinion about vows: Vows are words, and words are wind.

You can say that Jon is not like that, and that for him vows are sacred. Though - he swore to be celibate, nevertheless he had sex with Ygritte; he swore not to participate in affairs and wars, that doesn't concern Night's Watch, nevertheless he was assisting Stannis and his family, and was going to depart to Winterfell, and fight with Boltons, to save his sister.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

LOL, you do know that Aemon was in his thirties when he took the black, right? The man had most of his life ahead of him and the right of primogeniture gave him a stronger claim to the Iron Throne than Aegon V.

He became maester at the Citadel, when he was 8 or 9 years old. Maesters also swore an oath of celibacy, and not to have children, wore crowns, and stuff like that. Though, in case with Citadel, it was possible to be released from there, by pardon of High Septon or something like that. But Aemon didn't wanted any of that, thus he went to The Wall, and joined additional sworn order, that strengthened/doubled his non-involvement status.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is irrelevant to the question as to whether anybody would want to use Jon as a pretender/claimant after he had taken the black. Nobody would, because such people are essentially living corpses. They no longer have any political value.

You're totally ignoring magical aspect of ASOIAF.

Targaryens' motto - Fire and Blood. Jon is that blood. Blood of the dragon. Doesn't matter what is his political value. Doesn't matter whether he has title, castle, troops, and supporting him lords and bannermen. What matters is his dragon blood. After Dany, Jon is the purest Targaryen descendant. And to win in the Long Night, his participation is necessary. Dragon has three heads. Azor Ahai, the Prince that was promised, the last hero that will defeat the Others, are three people, not one. Three people, that are descendants of King Jaehaerys II Targaryen - his granddaughter Daenerys, and his two great grandsons - Jon and Rhaego.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If Aegon is a Blackfyre descendant he can claim a dragon just as well as Jon Snow could. He could be one of the dragon heads, too, you know.

No, he can't. Three dragons from the prophecy are specifically descendants of Jaehaerys. Jery had two children - Aerys and Rhaella. Their only children, that survived past age of maturity, was Rhaegar, Viserys and Dany. Rhaegar had three children - Rhaenys, Aegon and Jon. Rhaenys and Aegon were killed. Viserys had none, and died. Dany has Rhaego. Thus out of Jery's descendants, there are three about whom we know, that they are Targaryens - Dany is 100% Targaryen, Jon is 50%, and Rhaego is 50%. While all clues about fAegon, point out to his fakeness. Mummer's dragon is a lie, that will be slain by Daenerys. Doesn't mean that she will literally kill him. But she will unmask him. And what lie about him could there be? -> Only that he is not a lost Targaryen prince, and miraculously surviving son of Rhaegar. The rest of his story doesn't matter. If he is not Jery's descendant, then doesn't matter how high is percentage of purity of his dragon blood. If Jery is not his great grandfather, than fAegon is not one of three dragon heads from the prophecy.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He could have as much dragonlord blood - or even more than Jon Snow and Daenerys both (after all, Daeron II, Maekar, Aegon V, and Rhaegar all had women who weren't exactly keeping the blood of the dragon pure - perhaps the Blackfyre continued to marry their own in their exile?).

This is irrelevant. If he is not Jery's descendant, then the prophecy is not about him.

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Varys hasn't shown any interest at all in Jon, and there hasn't really been anything to hint that he knows anything about him. While obviously Varys is very subtle, if he was going to know about Jon's parentage, I'm sure Martin would have given us a clue by now.

From that I think we can reasonably conclude that either he doesn't know (which isn't that crazy; Varys is very effective at surveillance, but he isn't omniscient) or that he doesn't care (because he's a Blackfyre loyalist following a specific plan, or because he knows that Jon is a bastard, or any number of other reasons).

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32 minutes ago, KuwabaraTheMan said:

Varys hasn't shown any interest at all in Jon, and there hasn't really been anything to hint that he knows anything about him. While obviously Varys is very subtle, if he was going to know about Jon's parentage, I'm sure Martin would have given us a clue by now.

From that I think we can reasonably conclude that either he doesn't know (which isn't that crazy; Varys is very effective at surveillance, but he isn't omniscient) or that he doesn't care (because he's a Blackfyre loyalist following a specific plan, or because he knows that Jon is a bastard, or any number of other reasons).

Basically, the objection is that we haven't been given a clue about what Varys knows. GRRM has stated that Varys knows too much, therefore he can't give Varys a POV. From this we can conclude that Varys knows all sorts of things that we don't know he knows. The only thing we can do is infer from the circumstances what Varys might know. If only direct evidence is going to be accepted about what Varys knows, then we can only conclude Varys knows nothing.

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19 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

There are  precedents of brothers being released from their oaths that apparently no one knows about- there was talk of Aemon having the high septon release him from his vows-but Jon's case cannot be argued for the realm convincing given it,d to prolong a civil war, and the watch would be much more secure the sooner the war ends.

Was that to release him from the Night's Watch or to undo his Maester's vows? As I recall, the great council wanted to appoint Aemon king, but Aemon refused to give up his chain. Then he joined the Nights Watch after Aegon was crowned, along with Bloodraven, because he did not want to be used in any attempt to depose his brother. I'm not sure if there was any talk about him leaving the NW, but I could be wrong.

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13 hours ago, bent branch said:

Basically, the objection is that we haven't been given a clue about what Varys knows. GRRM has stated that Varys knows too much, therefore he can't give Varys a POV. From this we can conclude that Varys knows all sorts of things that we don't know he knows. The only thing we can do is infer from the circumstances what Varys might know. If only direct evidence is going to be accepted about what Varys knows, then we can only conclude Varys knows nothing.

Sublimely put, invoking some of the greatest comedy sketches of all time: I know that you know that I know you know what I know...

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13 hours ago, bent branch said:

Basically, the objection is that we haven't been given a clue about what Varys knows. GRRM has stated that Varys knows too much, therefore he can't give Varys a POV. From this we can conclude that Varys knows all sorts of things that we don't know he knows. The only thing we can do is infer from the circumstances what Varys might know. If only direct evidence is going to be accepted about what Varys knows, then we can only conclude Varys knows nothing.

Well, you're right that we don't know what Varys knows, and that he knows quite a lot. But I think we can look at textual evidence for whether Varys knowing something will be relevant or not. Even though GRRM has always kept Varys's intentions and knowledge close to the chest, he still puts in scenes like that conversation with Illyrio in the first book, or subtle hints during times where Varys is talking to other characters so that the close reader can have a broad idea of what Varys is up to. Since we haven't gotten any sort of hints at all on that front as far as Jon Snow goes, I think it's fair to conclude that Varys knowing about Jon Snow won't be relevant to the plot, because GRRM plays fair with the readers.

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