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Question Does Varys knows who Jon Snow really is?


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You know thinking about it; there are three reasons for why Varys(if he knew of Jon and assuming R+l=J is real) might have led Ned Stark to the tower of joy; one, Ned goes to war to place his nephew upon the throne-the babe would be seen to have more claim to Robert, and he may feel this would be his duty-bringing the realm into civil and fracturing more; two, Ned makes up a story that makes up a story that makes Jon's identity worthless.

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On 24. 2. 2018 at 1:43 AM, bent branch said:

I have thought a lot about your comments and before I address them, I want to reiterate Ned's state of mind at the time. Ned was fresh off the Battle on the Trident. Robert had been injured and Ned rushed ahead of him to secure Kingslanding. Upon his arrival he saw Lannister banners flying over the city and Jaime on the throne. Once Robert arrived and the Targaryen children were placed before him (to Robert's pleasure), Ned had become so disgusted by it all his relationship with Robert was broken. If not for their shared grief over Lyanna, Robert and Ned's relationship would not have recovered. So far nothing I've said should raise any controversy. I'm only trying remind of the situation in KL.

On that we are certainly in agreement.

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A piece of information that is noticeably absent is what Ned thought about where Lyanna might be. Therefore, we have no idea if he thought she might be in KL or if he thought she might be elsewhere. This is a piece of information which should be included in the story, but I think knowing this would tell the readers more about the situation than GRRM wants revealed at this point.

That is true.

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-Ned wouldn't trust the information from an anonymous letter.

At this point Ned doesn't actually trust Robert. Robert is showing a side that Ned doesn't really recognize or like. The old regime has fallen and the new regime is being hammered out. In this roiling mass of shifting loyalties Ned receives a note, "If you wish to find your sister, go to the northernmost watchtower of Prince's Pass." While these may not be the exact words, the meaning will be very similar. It is a bare bones message delivered in a manner that does not draw attention to the sender. Notice the only information in the message is sister and location. Also, Ned doesn't rush over there to find Lyanna, he waits until the last issues of the war have been resolved (basically doing what we see Jaime doing in AFFC). Finally, Ned has no other clues so why not check it out?

I wouldn't expect him not to check out (in the absence of other clues, it is better than nothing), but I would´expect him to exercise more caution and think about it in retrospect. The memories of Lyanna ad his friends' deaths keep haunting him for fourteen years, yet the mysterious message that brought it about doesn't get a honorable mention?

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-Taking only six people with him.

I think the novels themselves address this issue fully. Ned didn't think he would encounter any opposition to retrieving Lyanna.

? Excuse me, where is this stated?

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-Ned might think the anonymous letter writer is malevolent.

Why would he when the letter writer helped him find Lyanna?

Sorry but this is incredibly naive. He is in a freshly conquered city, the main bastion of his enemies. There is no reason to assume that anyone there would be sympathetic to the Rebel cause or to the Stark family. If someone possesses information that the Rebels would want, the obvious reason for them to share it would be to curry a favour with the new regime. Yet, this person chooses to remain anonymous - why? They could have a good reason to, but not coming in person makes them mightily suspicous.

BTW, in retrospect, when almost all of Ned's friends are dead and he was nearly killed himself, he should be even more suspicious if it wasn't meant as a trap.

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-Ned might think the letter writer knows of Jon's existence and means Jon harm.

The letter gives no hint of Lyanna being pregnant, so what evidence is there that the letter writer knew anything more than Lyanna's location. And again, why would Ned think the letter writer was malevolent? Ned would see this person as helping.

That would largely depend on the content of the hypothetical letter, as well as its timing. If the writer wanted Ned not to tell Robert, they would either have to state a mightily compelling reason (cannot think of a different one than hinting at something Robert had better not known, i.e. the pregnancy), or rely that Ned already knows something about the circumstances of Lyanna's disappearance that Robert shouldn't know, or the message would have to be delivered only after the break up. No matter the scenario, though, the danger remains the same: the person chose to share some knowledge but not reveal their identity, so there is no way of finding out what else they might know. So there is a person who might know about the secret whose motives are completely unknown. That's basically a Damocles sword hanging above Ned's head the whole time: does this person know? and will they keep the secret? For fourteen years, Ned carries his burden alone, doesn't relieve his conscience or Cat's worries, but is perfectly fine with the existence of someone who might destroy everyone he loves? Yet, no such thought, not a single hint at such a worry, ever crosses his mind.

 

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-Varys doesn't reveal that he knows Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna.

In the scene with Varys and Ned in the dungeon, it seems that Varys may be trying to find out about Jon without giving away anything of what he knows. At least, that is how it seems to me.

I've re-read the chapter, and don't see a thing. Can you show me which part you think points at this? The one mention of Jon along with Benjen doesn't seem like Varys trying to find out anything.

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26 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

The memories of Lyanna ad his friends' deaths keep haunting him for fourteen years, yet the mysterious message that brought it about doesn't get a honorable mention?

NOTHING gets an honorable mention as how Ned found out. Thus, no theory can meet the level of evidence you are demanding. And therefore, your standard for evidence is unreasonable.

35 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

? Excuse me, where is this stated?

"I looked for you here, I looked for you there..." Remember this? Ned is saying that he was not expecting them to be with Lyanna. The war was over and everyone else had knelt. He thought he could just go pick up Lyanna. This means Ned did not think he needed to go in force. Maybe it is because people don't understand this they keep being surprised that Ned didn't take an army when Ned didn't think he needed an army.

48 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

That would largely depend on the content of the hypothetical letter, as well as its timing. If the writer wanted Ned not to tell Robert, they would either have to state a mightily compelling reason (cannot think of a different one than hinting at something Robert had better not known, i.e. the pregnancy), or rely that Ned already knows something about the circumstances of Lyanna's disappearance that Robert shouldn't know, or the message would have to be delivered only after the break up. No matter the scenario, though, the danger remains the same: the person chose to share some knowledge but not reveal their identity, so there is no way of finding out what else they might know. So there is a person who might know about the secret whose motives are completely unknown. That's basically a Damocles sword hanging above Ned's head the whole time: does this person know? and will they keep the secret? For fourteen years, Ned carries his burden alone, doesn't relieve his conscience or Cat's worries, but is perfectly fine with the existence of someone who might destroy everyone he loves? Yet, no such thought, not a single hint at such a worry, ever crosses his mind.

Argh, you said you understood the political situation, but then precede to make an argument showing absolutely no understanding of the political situation. Ned, and to some extent Robert, are really hating each other at this moment. The lords who are busy kneeling to Robert could potential flip and decide to back Tywin or someone else. In this environment of political instability, someone has a stick of political dynamite; they know where Lyanna is. They have five basic things they can do with this information:

1)  They can keep the information to themselves and Lyanna either emerges or not on her own. This decision is the safest for this individual, but also leaves the individual no ability to influence the political changes happening. Also, if Lyanna remains mysteriously missing, Robert may delay making the marriage with Cersei, keeping things politically unstable longer.

2)  They can slip the information to Robert publicly or 3) anonymously. If they reveal themselves while revealing the information to Robert, they could potentially use it to their political advantage while making at least one very powerful political enemy, Tywin. On the other hand, if they reveal the information anonymously they put a kink in the negotiations between Robert, Jon and Tywin. This would be a good choice if they wanted to kibosh the wedding to Cersei and alliance with Tywin.

4) They can slip the information to Ned publicly or 5) anonymously. If they reveal the information to Ned openly, they risk triggering all those paranoid reactions that you think Ned should have. The types of questions Ned could ask, "Why are you giving me this information?" "Who put you up to this?" "Are you trying to get me to commit treason against Robert?" Revealing themselves as the give the information to Ned is actually a more aggressive move. It is almost a demand that Ned do something about it. On the other hand, giving Ned the information anonymously means Ned can do whatever he wants with the information, whenever he is ready. Furthermore, if Ned destroys the note, not only is the person who sent the note safe from possible reprisals, Ned is also safe. What is the advantage to telling Ned instead of Robert? If Ned retrieves Lyanna (who never wanted to marry Robert) he is unlikely to agree to a marriage between the two because of the very public falling out between the two. Thus, by telling Ned, the marriage between Robert and Cersei is likely to move forward, stabilizing the country faster.

So, I've just explained why who ever gave Ned the information might make one of the five basic choices. I also showed how giving the information to Ned probably had nothing to do with Lyanna being pregnant. Someone told. What I did was look at the possible individuals (a very, very short list) and picked the one I thought most likely.

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

I've re-read the chapter, and don't see a thing. Can you show me which part you think points at this? The one mention of Jon along with Benjen doesn't seem like Varys trying to find out anything.

Varys didn't need to bring up Jon at all. He already had Sansa to threaten Ned with. I think the reason he mentioned Jon was to see how Ned would react. Ned didn't react, so Varys got no satisfaction from the experiment.

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20 hours ago, bent branch said:

NOTHING gets an honorable mention as how Ned found out. Thus, no theory can meet the level of evidence you are demanding. And therefore, your standard for evidence is unreasonable.

Nonsense. If the information was provided by Lyanna herself, Ashara, Ethan Glover, Benjen or whoever else has been theorized to, they have no connection to KL that should trigger a reaction from Ned. Whereas, if Ned received the note in KL, from Varys or anonymously, there is no way he wouldn't be reminded of it and he should be wondering what else Varys or that anonymous person might know.

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"I looked for you here, I looked for you there..." Remember this? Ned is saying that he was not expecting them to be with Lyanna. The war was over and everyone else had knelt. He thought he could just go pick up Lyanna. This means Ned did not think he needed to go in force. Maybe it is because people don't understand this they keep being surprised that Ned didn't take an army when Ned didn't think he needed an army.

Well... I'd think that if they weren't here or there, the conclusion that they could be with Lyanna is pretty obvious - last time she was seen, she was with Rhaegar, and Dayne and Whent were Rhaegar's personal bodyguards. Either way, Rhaegar wouldn't have left Lyanna unprotected, so even if Ned didn't expect the KG there, he should have expected some guards.

Besides, the dream is not to be taken literally and the real dialogue may have been completely different. 

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Argh, you said you understood the political situation, but then precede to make an argument showing absolutely no understanding of the political situation. Ned, and to some extent Robert, are really hating each other at this moment.

That's rather exaggerated. Being BFFs no more doesn't equal to hating each other. 

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The lords who are busy kneeling to Robert could potential flip and decide to back Tywin or someone else.

Yeah? And where are we presented with such information? Robert has won, even has some Targ blood, and Tywin is looking to ingratiate himself with him.

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1)  They can keep the information to themselves and Lyanna either emerges or not on her own. This decision is the safest for this individual, but also leaves the individual no ability to influence the political changes happening. Also, if Lyanna remains mysteriously missing, Robert may delay making the marriage with Cersei, keeping things politically unstable longer.

That is nonsense. At this point, with Lyanna still missing, the marriage with Cersei is NOT on the table yet.

Besides, if Lyanna reappears and the individual is found knowing all along, they are in a great deal of trouble.

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2)  They can slip the information to Robert publicly or 3) anonymously. If they reveal themselves while revealing the information to Robert, they could potentially use it to their political advantage while making at least one very powerful political enemy, Tywin. On the other hand, if they reveal the information anonymously they put a kink in the negotiations between Robert, Jon and Tywin. This would be a good choice if they wanted to kibosh the wedding to Cersei and alliance with Tywin.

Again, putting the cart before the horses. At this point, Robert is betrothed to Lyanna and wouldn't want Cersei, and Tywin cannot use her as his trading card.

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4) They can slip the information to Ned publicly or 5) anonymously.

You mean personally, I suppose.

 

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If they reveal the information to Ned openly, they risk triggering all those paranoid reactions that you think Ned should have.

He should have those reactions either way, but when dealing in person, you can try to get some satisfactory answers. With an anonymous note, all you have is the paranoia.

 

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 Revealing themselves as the give the information to Ned is actually a more aggressive move. It is almost a demand that Ned do something about it. On the other hand, giving Ned the information anonymously means Ned can do whatever he wants with the information, whenever he is ready. Furthermore, if Ned destroys the note, not only is the person who sent the note safe from possible reprisals, Ned is also safe.

Oh? Do you really think that Ned could reasonably be expected not to act on the information where his sister is?

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What is the advantage to telling Ned instead of Robert? If Ned retrieves Lyanna (who never wanted to marry Robert) he is unlikely to agree to a marriage between the two because of the very public falling out between the two.

You mean, Ned is going to renege on the word given by his father and say no to his new king? Seriously? Right after he had found out how ruthless this new king can be? Sorry, I don't see that.

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Thus, by telling Ned, the marriage between Robert and Cersei is likely to move forward, stabilizing the country faster.

Only, the marriage is not on the table yet, remember?

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Varys didn't need to bring up Jon at all. He already had Sansa to threaten Ned with. I think the reason he mentioned Jon was to see how Ned would react. Ned didn't react, so Varys got no satisfaction from the experiment.

Exactly - Ned didn't react at all, even though just a moment ago, he had a jaw-dropping moment how Varys could have learned what he had discussed with LF. Seeing Varys know about a very private conversation should trigger an alarm when Varys mentions Jon, yet this never happens.

 

ETA: As for the political reasoning, the two of us may have different opinions, but what matters most is Ned's own take on the situation, and I really don't see him accepting an anonymous note in good faith, without ever wondering who wrote it and why, and what else they might know.

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On February 24, 2018 at 10:00 AM, John Suburbs said:

Was that to release him from the Night's Watch or to undo his Maester's vows? As I recall, the great council wanted to appoint Aemon king, but Aemon refused to give up his chain. Then he joined the Nights Watch after Aegon was crowned, along with Bloodraven, because he did not want to be used in any attempt to depose his brother. I'm not sure if there was any talk about him leaving the NW, but I could be wrong.

I believe It was to release him from his night's watch vows-but it kinda the same principle for how to release the man from both organizations may apply no? Aemon swore in for the 7 so the high septon being the voice of God could say God releases him from his vows no?

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On ‎2‎/‎25‎/‎2018 at 10:17 PM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I believe It was to release him from his night's watch vows-but it kinda the same principle for how to release the man from both organizations may apply no? Aemon swore in for the 7 so the high septon being the voice of God could say God releases him from his vows no?

In the World Book, the Great Council asked Aemon to be released from his maester's vows, but he refused. This was before Aemon joined the Nights Watch. I don't recall anything about plots for Aemon to give up his NW vows, except that he was "tested" three times in his life, which I take to mean he considered leaving the NW himself, not that anyone asked him to.

I can't find any references to maesters swearing their vows to the seven, but it does seem logical that they would make these promises "before gods and men." But the Citadel and the Faith are completely different orders, so even if the High Septon gave his blessing it would still be up to the Grand Maesters to formally release someone from the vows made to their order.

We should also note that while we have seen characters who are former maesters and septas, we have never seen a former Nights Watchman. The NW executes you for treason if you leave, apparently without exception. While the Faith and the Citadel may attaint you, they don't kill you. But the NW is also in a tough position regarding manpower and support, so maybe if Robb were to offer sufficient remuneration for letting Jon go they might agree to bend the rules just this once -- especially if it means avoiding civil war over the only great house that still values their mission.

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1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

We should also note that while we have seen characters who are former maesters and septas, we have never seen a former Nights Watchman. The NW executes you for treason if you leave, apparently without exception. While the Faith and the Citadel may attaint you, they don't kill you. But the NW is also in a tough position regarding manpower and support, so maybe if Robb were to offer sufficient remuneration for letting Jon go they might agree to bend the rules just this once -- especially if it means avoiding civil war over the only great house that still values their mission.

You're unnecessary overcomplicating this. There's no need to have political reasons for Jon's release from his vow. Night's Watch had a serious shortage of personnel. Thus if someone offered to give them a hundren of new recruits, in exchange of just one person, then Lord Commander would have gladly agreed to it, and all other watchers would have also accepted this offer.

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2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

We should also note that while we have seen characters who are former maesters and septas, we have never seen a former Nights Watchman. The NW executes you for treason if you leave, apparently without exception. While the Faith and the Citadel may attaint you, they don't kill you. But the NW is also in a tough position regarding manpower and support, so maybe if Robb were to offer sufficient remuneration for letting Jon go they might agree to bend the rules just this once -- especially if it means avoiding civil war over the only great house that still values their mission.

No, we never have seen a former man of the NW. Robb as you said wanted to send men and money to pay for Jon's freedom, but what was Stannis going to do to compensate the NW to release Jon from his vows? That's two people who thought Jon would be more valuable leading the north than being a member of the NW.

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5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

In the World Book, the Great Council asked Aemon to be released from his maester's vows, but he refused. This was before Aemon joined the Nights Watch. I don't recall anything about plots for Aemon to give up his NW vows, except that he was "tested" three times in his life, which I take to mean he considered leaving the NW himself, not that anyone asked him to.

I can't find any references to maesters swearing their vows to the seven, but it does seem logical that they would make these promises "before gods and men." But the Citadel and the Faith are completely different orders, so even if the High Septon gave his blessing it would still be up to the Grand Maesters to formally release someone from the vows made to their order.

We should also note that while we have seen characters who are former maesters and septas, we have never seen a former Nights Watchman. The NW executes you for treason if you leave, apparently without exception. While the Faith and the Citadel may attaint you, they don't kill you. But the NW is also in a tough position regarding manpower and support, so maybe if Robb were to offer sufficient remuneration for letting Jon go they might agree to bend the rules just this once -- especially if it means avoiding civil war over the only great house that still values their mission.

First, it appears I was mistaken on Aemon. 

Second, the watch interests would likely seem to lie with the war between the north and south  ending as soon as possible. 

The watch relies upon all the realms for recruits, not just the north.  

If the North succeeds in its war-efforts it's quite possible the IT would simply freeze all shipments of recruits  from the provinces it still has dominion over altogether; the north could deal with the savages beyond the wall themselves if they want to be independent. 100 men would  certainly help but in contrast to amount of recruits  that will be lost, it doesn't seem worth it. 

Theres also the likelihood of Robb (which quite frankly looked to be a certainty),losing all together; which if the watch had conceded to Robb's offer(or threat depending on how he planned to get 100 men for leverage), could justify the IT simply abolishing the brotherhood altogether.

Too much risk, not enough reward. Robb would not look good if he tries it either ; first he breaks his oaths to the Freys, now he's trying to get his bastard half-brother to do the same to the gods? A lot of Northern houses likely would not honor such a thing. For Robb himself through his actions show he cares not for it.

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4 hours ago, Megorova said:

You're unnecessary overcomplicating this. There's no need to have political reasons for Jon's release from his vow. Night's Watch had a serious shortage of personnel. Thus if someone offered to give them a hundren of new recruits, in exchange of just one person, then Lord Commander would have gladly agreed to it, and all other watchers would have also accepted this offer.

That's what I meant about sufficient remuneration -- not just more men, but food, supplies, etc. But I think the political calculations would be important to the NW as well; they need a stable, unified north at their back, not a collection of small houses all battling each other.

3 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

No, we never have seen a former man of the NW. Robb as you said wanted to send men and money to pay for Jon's freedom, but what was Stannis going to do to compensate the NW to release Jon from his vows? That's two people who thought Jon would be more valuable leading the north than being a member of the NW.

That's a good question. My view of Stannis is that he might eventually reward the NW for their loyalty on the matter, but he would also expect them to just meekly obey their king. Whether this would sit well with the other watchers is questionable, though.

And I think it's more accurate to say that these are two men who thought that Jon would be more valuable to themselves leading the north than being a member of the NW.

3 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

First, it appears I was mistaken on Aemon. 

Second, the watch interests would likely seem to lie with the war between the north and south  ending as soon as possible. 

The watch relies upon all the realms for recruits, not just the north.  

If the North succeeds in its war-efforts it's quite possible the IT would simply freeze all shipments of recruits  from the provinces it still has dominion over altogether; the north could deal with the savages beyond the wall themselves if they want to be independent. 100 men would  certainly help but in contrast to amount of recruits  that will be lost, it doesn't seem worth it. 

Theres also the likelihood of Robb (which quite frankly looked to be a certainty),losing all together; which if the watch had conceded to Robb's offer(or threat depending on how he planned to get 100 men for leverage), could justify the IT simply abolishing the brotherhood altogether.

Too much risk, not enough reward. Robb would not look good if he tries it either ; first he breaks his oaths to the Freys, now he's trying to get his bastard half-brother to do the same to the gods? A lot of Northern houses likely would not honor such a thing. For Robb himself through his actions show he cares not for it.

True as well. The north cannot provide very stable backing to the NW if it is facing invasion from the south, and the southron kingdoms are not likely to send men and materials to the NW if they are fighting the north. So the NW needs stability throughout the kingdom if it hopes to survive.

And yes, Robb's ploy with Jon might not have worked, but that's besides the point. My original comment was to the poster who said Varys would just forget about Jon once he joined the NW because he can never leave, never inherit lands/titles, etc., and that may not necessarily be the case. It's definitely rare, but perhaps not impossible given the right circumstances.

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1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

yes, Robb's ploy with Jon might not have worked, but that's besides the point. My original comment was to the poster who said Varys would just forget about Jon once he joined the NW because he can never leave, never inherit lands/titles, etc., and that may not necessarily be the case. It's definitely rare, but perhaps not impossible given the right circumstances.

It'd be seen as impossible because there'd no known precedent for such a thing. Of course it's not impossible all together , if the current monarch decides to pluck a brother from his post there's very little the brotherhood could do; it'd be seen as gross and abominable by society particularly the north  but not something I see anyone raising their banners over. But for Varys until he has a king that he could influence to do such a king it's impossible for him.

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17 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

It'd be seen as impossible because there'd no known precedent for such a thing. Of course it's not impossible all together , if the current monarch decides to pluck a brother from his post there's very little the brotherhood could do; it'd be seen as gross and abominable by society particularly the north  but not something I see anyone raising their banners over. But for Varys until he has a king that he could influence to do such a king it's impossible for him.

OK, but that doesn't mean Varys just forgets about Jon as no longer a potential solution/threat to whatever he is planning. He may be on the back burner, but he would certainly want to keep informed about Jon, what he's doing, who he is talking to... Even if Varys does not have his own king who can release Jon, there are others who might.

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