Was CERSEI Joffrey's True Murderer?

[Kandrax]

17 hours ago, Tygett Lannister said:

Why would he want to poison Joffrey? No reason

Wrong, he had a reason. He needed to get Sansa out of King's landing. Also, trying to poison Tyrion with some pie is very risky move, because anyone could ate piece of pie.

[Megorova]

16 hours ago, Tygett Lannister said:

What makes you think LF worked for Varys?

1. Petyr Baelish is a mockingbird.

Varys' little bird grew up, and became a mockingbird. Petyr was one of Varys' pupils, but then turned on his master. And thus he has chosen as his symbol a mockingbird. It's a symbol of his win over Varys, his ex-teacher, whom he managed to outsmart. The pupil has surpassed his teacher.

"Petyr owns a slashed velvet doublet in cream-and-silver,^[12] a plum-colored doublet with a mockingbird embroidered on the breast in black thread,^[13] " "His cloaks, which are clasped with a silver mockingbird,^[2] include grey silk trimmed with black fox,^[12] stripes of black and white,^[13] and a pattern of mockingbirds.^[16] Petyr also owns a yellow satin cape^[7] and a silver cape^[17] patterned with mockingbirds.^[14][18]" "He showed her a ribbon. Catelyn felt her breath catch in her throat. The seal was a mockingbird, in grey wax. “Petyr,” she said."

He's making fun of Varys. By wearing those mockingbirds he's saying to him - Look at me, I'm a bird. You taught me to play a game of thrones, but instead of becoming one of your pawns, I'm playing my own game. I know your secrests, I know your plans, I f*cked you over, and you can't do nothing about it. You can't get rid of me, or else you will sink together with me. Do you like my mockingbirds? I made them for you. Tweet tweet 

2. Pie is a reference to LF's and Varys' secret partnership in the past.

AGOT, Eddard IV:

Quote

Littlefinger smiled. “Leave Lord Varys to me, sweet lady. If you will permit me a small obscenity—and where better for it than here—I hold the man’s balls in the palm of my hand.” He cupped his fingers, smiling. “Or would, if he were a man, or had any balls. You see, if the pie is opened, the birds begin to sing, and Varys would not like that. Were I you, I would worry more about the Lannisters and less about the eunuch.”

3. In his childhood and early youth Petyr wasn't very smart. He was ambitious and greedy, but smart he wasn't. He was careless enough to kiss daughter of his liege lord. Furthermore both of his daughters. If their father found out about this, it could have ended badly for LF, with exile from Riverlands, or even from Westeros, or he could have sent him to The Wall, or even castrated him. Also LF thought that if he will take Lysa's maidenhead, or will impregnate her, then her father will agree to their marriage. This way of thinking was way too naive. He also thought that he has a chanse to defeat Brandon Stark, even though he was small, scrawny and weak, while Brandon was tall, strong, and a prominent warrior. So challenging him wasn't a smart move. And he ate mud pie, made by Cat and Lysa, and was sick for a week because of that.

And then just a few years later, Petyr suddenly becomes some sort of super genius. This kind of changes does not happen on their own. Thus it's logical to assume, that LF found himself a teacher, or rather was recruited by that teacher. And the similarities in Varys' and LF's styles, is a proof of their collaboration in the past.

4. Varys knows nearly everything about LF. But LF also knows that Varys knows those things about him. This two-way communication is a proof, that at least in the past, both of them were on the same side. AGOT, Catelyn IV:

Quote

“How did you know I was in the city?” she asked him.

“Lord Varys knows all,” Petyr said with a sly smile. “He will be joining us shortly, but I wanted to see you alone first. It has been too long, Cat. How many years?”

Catelyn ignored his familiarity. There were more important questions. “So it was the King’s Spider who found me.”

Littlefinger winced. “You don’t want to call him that. He’s very sensitive. Comes of being an eunuch, I imagine. Nothing happens in this city without Varys knowing. Ofttimes he knows about it before it happens. He has informants everywhere. His little birds, he calls them. One of his little birds heard about your visit. Thankfully, Varys came to me first.”

“Why you?”

He shrugged. “Why not me? I am master of coin, the king’s own councillor. Selmy and Lord Renly rode north to meet Robert, and Lord Stannis is gone to Dragonstone, leaving only Maester Pycelle and me. I was the obvious choice. I was ever a friend to your sister Lysa, Varys knows that.”

“Does Varys know about…”

“Lord Varys knows everything…except why you are here.”

5. What GRRM said about relationship between Varys and Littlefinger.

I recently have read that quote somewhere on this forum, though don't remember in which thread exactly. It was something like, LF knows about Varys more, than Varys knows about LF.

Thing like that, could have happened if LF was one of Varys' litle birds, and Varys trusted him, to the point that LF knew Varys' plan about Blackfyres invasion into Westeros, that Varys planned for many years. But LF decided to use this opportunity for his own wellbeing. Thus he slightly altered Varys' plan, and set things in motion, sooner than Varys was intending to do that. 

Furthermore, death of Jon Arryn, execution of Ned Stark, Red Wedding, Purple Wedding, Sansa's escape from King's Landing, death of Lysa Arryn, - none of it wasn't part of Varys' original plan. This details were added by LF, and their point was to make LF a ruler of three Kingdoms - The North, The Vale, and Riverlands - thru marriage with Sansa Stark, and friend of The Reach, by helping Olenna Tyrell to save her dear Margaery from Joffrey's evil clutches.

Thus by the time of fAegon's arrival to Westeros, on Varys' side will be Stormlands (left headless without Stannis and Renly, that according to Varys' original plan, were supposed to war against Lannisters, and thus it should have been easy for Jon Connington to seize Stormlands), Dorne and part of The Reach (Oldtown and the Arbor, Hightowers and Redwynes), and on LF's side will be The North, The Vale, Riverlands and Highgarden with Tyrells.

LF's 3,5 Kingoms VS Varys' 2,5 Kingdoms. Thus Varys needed Tyrion and with him Westerlands. Then his and LF's forces will be equal + Varys will have on his side Golden Company. Thus Blackfyres will win Iron Throne from LF.

6. LF's connection with Essos - Tears of Lys, Kettleblacks, amethysts from Asshai. He's using same sources as Varys.

7. What Varys said about LF.

ACOK, Tyrion III:

Quote

“He accuses my brother and sister of incest. I wonder how he came by that suspicion.”

“Perhaps he read a book and looked at the color of a bastard’s hair, as Ned Stark did, and Jon Arryn before him. Or perhaps someone whispered it in his ear.” The eunuch’s laugh was not his usual giggle, but deeper and more throaty.

“Someone like you, perchance?”

“Am I suspected? It was not me.”

“If it had been, would you admit it?”

“No. But why should I betray a secret I have kept so long? It is one thing to deceive a king, and quite another to hide from the cricket in the rushes and the little bird in the chimney. Besides, the bastards were there for all to see.”

“Robert’s bastards? What of them?”

“He fathered eight, to the best of my knowing,” Varys said as he wrestled with the saddle. “Their mothers were copper and honey, chestnut and butter, yet the babes were all black as ravens . . . and as ill-omened, it would seem. So when Joffrey, Myrcella, and Tommen slid out between your sister’s thighs, each as golden as the sun, the truth was not hard to glimpse.”

Tyrion shook his head. If she had borne only one child for her husband, it would have been enough to disarm suspicion . . . but then she would not have been Cersei. “If you were not this whisperer, who was?”

“Some traitor, doubtless.” Varys tightened the cinch.

“Littlefinger?”

“I named no name.”

Tyrion let the eunuch help him mount. “Lord Varys,” he said from the saddle, “sometimes I feel as though you are the best friend I have in King’s Landing, and sometimes I feel you are my worst enemy.”

“How odd. I think quite the same of you.”

Varys kept that secret for a long time, he was going to use it, eventually, but not so soon. And LF used Vary's own plan, and set things in motion. Varys referred to LF as traitor, because LF betrayed Varys and stole his plan.

 

LF poisoned Jon Arryn to get married with Lysa, and after her death to become ruler of The Vale. He arranged execution of Ned Stark, and Red Wedding, and Joffrey's poisoning, to get married with Sansa Stark, and thru her to get to The North and Riverlands. None of it wasn't needed to Varys. He was giving an out of the game of thrones, to both Ned and Cersei. He offered them to get their children, and get out of King's Landing and go home. But both of them rejected that suggestion, and thus, according to Varys' plan, Ned was supposed to be sent to The Wall, but Cersei's children became doomed. Varys' and LF's plan to present those children as bastards, didn't worked. Citizens of 7K still consider them as rightful heirs of King Robert Baratheon. And thus, as long as any sucessor from Baratheon's dynasty is still alive, fAegon or anyone else can't become King of 7K. Thus now for both of them, Varys and LF, death of all of Cersei's children is necessary. When Tommen will die, then Myrcella is next in succession line. And as Tyrion correctly thought, to crown her is the same as to kill her. She will die too.

Thus Cersei is indeed guilty in her children's death. She didn't poisoned Joffrey, but if she listened to Ned, and just disappeared from KL, and by this admitted that her children are fruits of incest between her and Jaime, then their lives would've been safe, from whoever wanted to seize Iron Throne, after Robert's death. Now they are doomed, unless Cersei will publicly admit, that Tommen and Myrcella are not children of Robert Baratheon. Though we know, that Cersei is uncapable of self-sacrifice, thus she'll never do this.

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, Nevets said:

"We have heard some troubling tales, however.  Is there any truth to them?  Has this boy mistreated you?"  Olenna to Sansa - ASOS Sansa I.  If this isn't showing concern about Joffrey, I don't know what is.  Most of their conversation is concern about Joffrey, and Sansa's statements and actions wouldn't have eased their minds any.  The simple fact that she was terrified to even talk to them would be worrisome.  

Note that this is different from assessing whether Joffrey was actually a threat to Margaery.  The evidence is unclear there.  But the Tyrells surely had ample reason for concern.

You're forgetting the part when Lady Olenna finally hears these truths and her reaction to this now imminent threat to the most important person in her life is a resounding "that's a pity."

But let's take a hard look at that conversation. The first thing that jumps out is the fact that Sansa reveals nothing about Joffrey that Lady Olenna -- indeed that everybody -- does not already know by now.

First, she says Joffrey promised mercy for Ned if he confessed, and then took his head anyway. But that is no big secret. Joffrey made the offer of mercy in open court in front of numerous high lords and ladies. Then later, at the Sept of Baelor no less, Joffrey publicly declared that despite the wishes of his mother, his betrothed and his small council that Ned was to die anyway.

Next, she says Joffrey is a monster who has the KG beat her. But again, this is no secret. Even if the initial beatings were in private, the mere fact that Sansa is now walking around the Red Keep with black eyes and bruises is proof that Joffrey is behind it. He is the only one who could do that to the bride-to-be of the king and live. But if there was any doubt, they were removed following the battle at Oxcross where, again in front of numerous high lords and ladies, including Lady Olenna's own grandsons, Joffrey ordered Sansa stripped and beaten.

But if Lady O already has these stories confirmed by other sources, then what was the point of that conversation? It took me a while to figure out, but I finally asked the question, if she already knows all this about Joffrey, then what doesn't she know that she can only learn from Sansa's lips? And then it hit me: she knows next to nothing about Sansa herself. Sansa grew up at Winterfell, where all Lady O could glean was what came from official pronouncements and life events, and perhaps whatever she could gather from third-hand sources. Then, Sansa comes to the capital where she presents herself as the pretty, polite, dutiful daughter of Ned Stark, full of practiced courtesies and shadowed by her septa wherever she goes. But Lady O knows better than anyone that court personages are rarely the real person. So, is Sansa smart? Is she stupid? A conniver? A gold-digger? A wanton slut? In short, will she make a welcome addition to House Tyrell, or will she by a huge PitA? By questioning her about things she already knows, Lady O learns the truth about Sansa's character: that she is brave, overcoming her fears in order to tell the truth, and that she would do so to protect Margaery, a perfect stranger to her, even though in Sansa's mind this could scotch the betrothal and put her right back into Joffrey's clutches. And it was right after this that Willas was put on the table.

18 hours ago, Nevets said:

Tywin isn't a threat to Highgarden, and isn't likely to be unless they do something stupid.  The Castameres were vassals who openly rebelled and took Lannister hostages.  The Tullys were the family of Catelyn Stark, who kidnapped his son, claiming he had tried to kill Bran.  In both cases Tywin had ample reason to act.  He overdid it, but that doesn't mean that the Tyrells have anything to worry about.

And Tyrion is slated to become the Lord Regent of the most distant, underpopulated, and unimportant region in Westeros.  And he is likely to have his hands full with his vassals, if he is allowed to take the seat at all.

Plus, defending is a  lot easier than attacking.  The Tyrells have plenty of forces at their disposal, and plenty of young marriageable family members with which to make alliances.  (Mostly collateral lines, but so are the Lannisters)

Nope.   I see no reason for the Tyrells to kill Tyrion.  As opposed to Joffrey, who, even if he isn't dangerous to Margaery, is also clearly not at all malleable, unlike his brother, who is the logical next choice.

Tywin is a threat to everyone. The Tyrells would still be at war with Tywin if Renly hadn't been killed. The westerlands and the Reach share an ill-defined border that is at least 100 leagues long, and about three times that length with his newly acquired holdings in the riverlands -- plenty of opportunity for land disputes, ownership of mills, dams, hunting and grazing grounds, just like we saw in The Sworn Sword. Even if actual war does not break out, it will be death by a thousand cuts as, one after another, judgements from the crown empower CR at the expense of Highgarden. Even the fact that the Reynes (not the Castameres, that was the name of the castle) had married into House Lannister did not prevent Tywin from obliterating the entire house when a dispute over money arose. So for Highgarden, a house that has dominated the region for centuries, to now be in a position in which they'll be safe as long as they behave themselves, this is a terrible outcome -- one that it is well worth killing a dwarf to prevent.

The north is distant, but it is far from underpopulated and unimportant. It takes longer to marshal an army, but it is perfectly capable of bring upwards of 20,000 men into the field. Add to that the fact that it is teaming with all the natural resources needed to support armies and navies -- wood, ore, fur, food -- and it has something that neither the Lannisters nor the Tyrells have -- a port on the Narrow Sea -- and the North can make a power of whomever controls it. Tyrion is a very smart man who knows how to navigate through tricky political situations. There is no reason to think he cannot handle the northmen.

The Tyrells have a lot of forces, but they are not invincible. Highgarden has been sacked and burned before, and it came as the result of poorly selected marriage alliances from the Gardner king. Highgarden alone would not stand a chance against CR, Riverrun, Winterfell, Storm's End and the Iron Throne, with Dorne possibly thrown in for good measure now that Myrcella is marrying into House Martell.

Joffrey is extremely malleable, particularly by the two people who have been shown to manipulate him: Littlefinger and Margaery. For them, removing Joffrey at this point is like taking your dragons of the cyvasse board and chucking them into the sea.

[John Suburbs]

6 hours ago, Kandrax said:

Wrong, he had a reason. He needed to get Sansa out of King's landing. Also, trying to poison Tyrion with some pie is very risky move, because anyone could ate piece of pie.

No, nobody is expected to eat Tyrion's pie but Tyrion. Every guest is served their own piece of pie and every guest will take at least one bite because "it's ill luck not to eat the pie." It's the Westerosi version of our modern wedding cake.

Lady O is the grandmother of the bride and has been shown to be a micromanager, especially when it comes to food: "the cheese will be served when I want it served, and I want it served now." She can easily arrange it so she knows exactly which slice is going to Tyrion, exactly where it will be at the moment the pigeons take flight, and at best has to make sure only one pair of eyes is looking upward: the servant who may or may not be holding the plate yet.

The chalice, meanwhile, is a giant glittering, golden object, like a giant fishing lure, sitting in plain view of upwards of 1000 guests, all of whom are facing in its direction. The rim is three feet above the table and pushed so far forward that Tyrion has to climb into his seat just to reach the stem. Garlan is the only conceivable poisoner her, but talk about risky. In literally the blink of an eye, he has to bring his arm up from his side, reach all the way to the rim, drop the poison and hope nobody hears a clink or a splash now that the entire room is silently waiting for the pigeons to be released, and then bring his arm back down. If just one person out of a thousand happens to catch this move, it's game-over for Garlan, Lady O, in fact, the entire Tyrell family minus one.

This is the main difference between the pie and the wine. The pie needed only one completely random, utterly unpredictable event to fail, while the wine needs an entire string of completely random, utterly unpredictable events to succeed.

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

I guess that was why GRRM has written the scene where the Queen of Thorns is relentlessly inquisitive about Joffrey's character, and had Margaery join in the conversation, visibly moved, and the two gals exchange looks: to demonstrate that they completely didn't care. Right.

Your theory makes heaps of sense.

Read above. Lady O has already knows all these stories about Joffrey. If she doesn't, she is literally the last person in Westeros to have heard them. And she would never have risen to her position of authority in a hopelessly paternalistic society if she were so willfully ignorant of public events.

There was a point to that conversation, and it had nothing to do with Joffrey.

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, Prince of the North said:

  It certainly isn't silly.  Martin very much has put this whole thing to bed once and for all.  However, I get that you desperately need Martin to be lying or obfuscating here for your Purple Wedding-related "theory" to have any chance of being taken seriously.  

As I said, everyone can read Martin's own words on the subject and make up their own minds.  

  ...eh, originally, I was going to go into more detail...but there's really no need.

Lol, sure, but read all of Martin's words, including the ones where he basically says none of what I am about to say applies to the book. Desperation is cherry-picking only what supports your beliefs, not the actual facts as spoken or written.

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

There, I fixed it for ya

Well, with nearly a decade between book releases, everything has already been discussed. Sure, there are some bits that are missed, but really, you need to ignore what is written on the page and start writing your own story to get to Illyrio hiring the catspaw, or mance ditching the watch to go to the harrenhal tourney, then returning to the watch so he could meet ned in person years later, or Euron, Dario and Benjen being literally everyone else. But hey, ignore the whole book, and the gravity of events, and then Mance could be Rhaegar! even though he met Ned, in winterfell, 5 years after Rhaegar died. Oh yeah, and Jon is not Rhaegar and Lyanna's son either 

You mean like ignoring what is written on the page that has the same poison reacting markedly different on two victims, or inventing all manner of magical, alt-universe explanations as to why this is so? Or ignoring the fact that neither Lady O nor Margaery express any fear of Joffrey at all, or that Joffrey shows no signs of hostility toward Margaery and that there is not even any reason why he should be hostile toward her? Or how about ignoring the fact that Littlefinger and Lady O would have to know ahead of time that Tyrion will be named cupbearer to Joffrey and that the chalice would inconceivably wind up directly in front of the only Tyrell who has even a one-in-a-million chance of poisoning it without being seen?

How about the fact that no one on this thread is talking about Mance or Harrenhall or Euron or anything else that you're on about?

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

59 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

You're forgetting the part when Lady Olenna finally hears these truths and her reaction to this now imminent threat to the most important person in her life is a resounding "that's a pity."

You mean, she didn't say: "OK, we're going to murder Joffrey then. Sorry... Butterbumps, you twit! Shut the fuck up for a second! I said, I'm going to poison King Joffrey!"? Yeah... Weird.

You make excellent points.

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

I really don't think the Tyrells give two hoots about a potential Stark-Lannister alliance as they would still be more powerful, are further cementing their own already vast power by devouring the Florent lands, and are well aware of the bitter enmity between Stark, Lannister and Tully and how easy it would be to exploit that to weaken any potential Lannister power bloc, and are quietly engaging in pushing the Lannisters out of power and intending to be the power behind the throne themselves.  Getting rid of Joffrey allows for all their plans to come to fruition through Tommen without the risk to Margaery or Loras that Joffrey represented.  

The Tyrells already count the Florents as their vassals, so acquiring Florent lands gives them nothing that they did not already have before some Florents backed Stannis instead of Renly. The north, meanwhile, is a huge prize full of fierce fighting men and chock full of wood, ore, furs, food and all the other things you need to support a huge army, and a navy for that matter.

All of the enmity between Casterly Rock, Riverrun, Winterfell and the rest will fade once they are all one big family. Tywin already has his heirs on the Iron Throne and Storm's End. He will soon have one ruling Riverrun and, through Tyrion, in Winterfell. This is how the Tyrells have maintained their power in the Reach; Tywin is extending this same gambit across more than half the kingdom.

Getting rid of Joffrey sets the Tyrell goal of acquiring the Iron Throne back at least five years, an eternity for a feudal society in a time of war.

 

 

[Prince of the North]

27 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Lol, sure, but read all of Martin's words, including the ones where he basically says none of what I am about to say applies to the book. Desperation is cherry-picking only what supports your beliefs, not the actual facts as spoken or written.

As I said, I completely get why you so desperately need Martin to be lying or "being coy" in the Rolling Stone article where he completely lays everything out about the Purple Wedding.  You are outright calling Martin a liar.  Very bold of you.  Now, I know you can't prove that assertion but you will doggedly continue to cling to it so that you can continue to indulge in your fan fiction concerning the Purple Wedding.

I'll say it yet again: Martin has very much put this whole issue to bed.  We have the author's own words telling us exactly what happened at the Purple Wedding, how it happened, and most importantly why it happened.  There are still a great many mysteries in ASoIaF but the circumstances surrounding Joffery's murder aren't one of them (unless one chooses to deliberately ignore/misconstrue the author's words on the subject and, basically, call him a liar). 

And none of this is to try to convince you of anything.  It's really for anyone else to read so that they can make an informed decision on what they believe about the Purple Wedding.  Here are Martin's own word yet again:

Quote

Martin: In the books — and I make no promises, because I have two more books to write, and I may have more surprises to reveal — the conclusion that the careful reader draws is that Joffrey was killed by the Queen of Thorns, using poison from Sansa’s hair net, so that if anyone actually did think it was poison, then Sansa would be blamed for it. Sansa had certainly good reason for it.

The reason I bring this up is because I think that’s an interesting question of redemption. That’s more like killing Hitler. Does the Queen of Thorns need redemption? Did the Queen of Thorns kill Hitler, or did she murder a 13-year-old boy? Or both? She certainly had good reasons to remove Joffrey. Everything she’d heard about him, he was wildly unstable, and he was about to marry her beloved granddaughter. The Queen of Thorns had studied Joffrey well enough that she knew that at some point he would get bored with Margaery, and Margaery would be maltreated, the same way that Sansa had been. Whereas if she removed him then her granddaughter might still get the crown but without all of the danger. So is that a case where the end justifies the means? I don’t know. That’s what I want the reader or viewer to wrestle with, and to debate. 

And, no, Martin saying "and I make no promises, because I have two more books to write, and I may have more surprises to reveal" does not mean "none of what I am about to say applies to the book" no matter how desperately you need it to

[John Suburbs]

10 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

You mean, she didn't say: "OK, we're going to murder Joffrey then. Sorry... Butterbumps, you twit! Shut the fuck up for a second! I said, I'm going to poison King Joffrey!"? Yeah... Weird.

You make excellent points.

Well, I would think that if she just got this devastating news that she has been lied to and that her most precious relative, the one she is now willing to commit regicide for, is in mortal danger from a psycho king there would be a little more consternation than "that's a pity."

And now you have a situation in which Littlefinger has not even come clean about the lie he told that got Margaery into this fix in the first place, and yet we are expected to believe that Lady O then casually enters into a plot with this known liar and back-stabber to kill the king, and that plan has her dropping poison into a giant golden chalice that the Tyrell's themselves gave as a gift, all while the entire Tyrell family minus one is in the Red Keep surrounded by Lannister guards, oh, and the known liar and backstabber himself is safe and sound on his ship in the bay ready to flee to Braavos should anything go wrong.

For a woman who is so politically astute as to navigate her way through a hopelessly patriarchal society to rule the most powerful house in the seven kingdoms, how can you possibly think she is this blindingly naïve?

[the trees have eyes]

14 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

The Tyrells already count the Florents as their vassals, so acquiring Florent lands gives them nothing that they did not already have before some Florents backed Stannis instead of Renly. The north, meanwhile, is a huge prize full of fierce fighting men and chock full of wood, ore, furs, food and all the other things you need to support a huge army, and a navy for that matter.

All of the enmity between Casterly Rock, Riverrun, Winterfell and the rest will fade once they are all one big family. Tywin already has his heirs on the Iron Throne and Storm's End. He will soon have one ruling Riverrun and, through Tyrion, in Winterfell. This is how the Tyrells have maintained their power in the Reach; Tywin is extending this same gambit across more than half the kingdom.

Getting rid of Joffrey sets the Tyrell goal of acquiring the Iron Throne back at least five years, an eternity for a feudal society in a time of war.

 

 

Putting Garlan in Brightwater Keep considerably strengthens their position as it removes an overmighty bannerman and removes a House with a stronger claim to Highgarden than they have.  As you well know.....

The big happy family you imagine will never happen.  The Tyrells aren't worried about the Lannisters, they are riding their coat tails to power and planning to supplant them.  Getting rid of Joffrey puts Margaery in a far stronger position to influence and manipulate Tommen to secure a pro-Tyrell agenda.  It's almost like that is exactly what Margaery goes on to do....

I know you like to adopt a position and defend it to the bitter end so let's just sidestep the next pointless iteration of yes vs no and you can note why I disagree with your position and I can note you still think it's valid and we can save ourselves a lot of time.  Fell free to fight your one man war over the pie with the rest of the forum though!

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

27 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Well, I would think that if she just got this devastating news that she has been lied to and that her most precious relative, the one she is now willing to commit regicide for, is in mortal danger from a psycho king there would be a little more consternation than "that's a pity."

And she'd certainly show her hand to Sansa, because Olenna was so shitty a poker player, and Sansa so shrewd. Gotcha.

[Dorian Martell's son]

49 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

You mean like ignoring what is written on the page that has the same poison reacting markedly different on two victims, or inventing all manner of magical, alt-universe explanations as to why this is so?

So, poison must work EXACTLY the same on a very old man as it does on a young vigorous man in the prime of his life?

57 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Or ignoring the fact that neither Lady O nor Margaery express any fear of Joffrey at all, or that Joffrey shows no signs of hostility toward Margaery and that there is not even any reason why he should be hostile toward her?

 So, the Tyrell women have no eyes or ears? Is it impossible to hear rumors? And I am sure littlefinger, the broker of the marriage said nothing to them about the king's proclivities, or how he treated his formerly betrothed. So yeah, we do not see the inner workings of a conspiracy through the eyes of a teenage girl who has been used as a pawn since game of thrones .

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

 Or how about ignoring the fact that Littlefinger and Lady O would have to know ahead of time that Tyrion will be named cupbearer to Joffrey and that the chalice would inconceivably wind up directly in front of the only Tyrell who has even a one-in-a-million chance of poisoning it without being seen?

It is a royal wedding. The night would be a long one, with much wine, and many chances for a tyrell to slip a strangler crystal into a glass. After all,a Tyrell would be sitting next to the king all night long  

[Dorian Martell's son]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

How about the fact that no one on this thread is talking about Mance or Harrenhall or Euron or anything else that you're on about?

How about the fact that you don't see the possibility of Cersei killing her son, or the fat man hiring a catspaw to kill bran as any less absurd than mance at harrenall 

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

31 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

So, poison must work EXACTLY the same on a very old man as it does on a young vigorous man in the prime of his life?

Yes. It's basic physiology: everything works always exactly the same, to the second. There are no variables.

(Which has its very positive real life aspects: med schools are easy AF, diagnostics is piece of cake, and medical research is dirt cheap.)

[SirArthur]

19 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Here's the thing. There is no pattern.  If you cannot grok the analogy, how could you possibly see a pattern?

I am sorry. My personal inability to grok your analogy means that there is no pattern in story telling. Now we all finally know that patterns in storytelling do not exist and prologue in a greek drama are just a pure human imagination. See, there are no patterns, so the mystery could be solved before it happened. There are also no patterns in a thriller. All just my imagination. And information handling in a thriller also follows no pattern. It was just the gardener. And specific information regarding the evidence also obviously has no pattern. Why ? Because my fucking inability is the problem.

So we introduce an element to the evidence: dragonbone. And then we never check on doubles, because we assume swords are unique, so every dagger has to be unique too. Not that the other bit of information (dragonbone trader) has anything to do with it. He is the only known dragonbone trader in the entire series and the evidence has that specific characteristic. So unless we check on him, this entire thing simply lacks information. Even as a false track he has at least to act as a false track. He does not even do that. He is just there.  

And no, just because I say check on Illyrio does not mean he acted on Bran falling from the tower or that he hired the catspawn. It simply means that we lack information. Based in the idea that dragonbone is very specific for the evidence and the person. You may have your case solved. Or you may have not. You lack information. 

[Tygett Lannister]

9 hours ago, Kandrax said:

Wrong, he had a reason. He needed to get Sansa out of King's landing. Also, trying to poison Tyrion with some pie is very risky move, because anyone could ate piece of pie.

that made 0 sense friend

[The Hidden Dragon]

2 hours ago, Prince of the North said:

As I said, I completely get why you so desperately need Martin to be lying or "being coy" in the Rolling Stone article where he completely lays everything out about the Purple Wedding.  You are outright calling Martin a liar.  Very bold of you.  Now, I know you can't prove that assertion but you will doggedly continue to cling to it so that you can continue to indulge in your fan fiction concerning the Purple Wedding.

I'll say it yet again: Martin has very much put this whole issue to bed.  We have the author's own words telling us exactly what happened at the Purple Wedding, how it happened, and most importantly why it happened.  There are still a great many mysteries in ASoIaF but the circumstances surrounding Joffery's murder aren't one of them (unless one chooses to deliberately ignore/misconstrue the author's words on the subject and, basically, call him a liar). 

And none of this is to try to convince you of anything.  It's really for anyone else to read so that they can make an informed decision on what they believe about the Purple Wedding.  Here are Martin's own word yet again:

And, no, Martin saying "and I make no promises, because I have two more books to write, and I may have more surprises to reveal" does not mean "none of what I am about to say applies to the book" no matter how desperately you need it to

Just to chime in... I haven't seen anyone on this thread call GRRM a liar.  I think you go too far there.

I certainly don't think GRRM would lie in an interview, but I think we all can acknowledge that there have been many examples of GRRM being coy or not being completely forthright in his answers, which is completely understandable - he has a story to tell and doesn't want to give away all his mysteries.  

That being said, what do you propose GRRM meant when he said "and I make no promises, because I have two more books to write, and I may have more surprises to reveal"?  

[Dorian Martell's son]

43 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Yes. It's basic physiology: everything works always exactly the same, to the second. There are no variables.

(Which has its very positive real life aspects: med schools are easy AF, diagnostics is piece of cake, and medical research is dirt cheap.)

Inorite? seriously. One dose of aspirin for a 5 year old, a 30 year old and an 80 year old. The same goes for anesthesia. One single dose, regardless of age, weight, lifestyle, blood pressure, allergies or heart conditions. I stand corrected John Suburbs.