OldGimletEye Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/02/22/fewer-americans-are-working-dont-blame-immigrants-or-food-stamps/ Job losses in the US. 1. It’s not because of slacker millenials spending too much time playing video games and doing bong hits. 2. It’s not because of the ACA. 3. It’s not because of food stamps. The two biggest culprits seem to be as far as long term factors go (as short term cyclical factors there is one clear culprit: The Republican Party): 1. Competition with China 2. Robots. Quote University of Maryland economists Katharine Abraham and Melissa Kearney built one. After reviewing the most robust research available and doing some rough-but-rigorous math to estimate how much job loss each phenomenon can explain, the duo discovered something surprising: pretty much all the missing jobs are accounted for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Richard II Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I knew it! I knew it was robots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rippounet Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Obligatory: https://goo.gl/images/WSB9Zn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sivin Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 7 hours ago, dmc515 said: It's hardly a foregone conclusion but things have shifted to the Dems as slight favorites to take the House (this is really still more of a tossup) because of retirements and the early national metrics being confirmed with quality (and well funded) challengers to vulnerable GOP seats, as well as election results demonstrating Democratic enthusiasm. Very fair. Hubris may be the English disease, but we liberals the world over certainly felt its symptoms in 16. I remain very confident, but you are right to be cautious. And in a further spirit of commonality I would like to reach out to Solog. It was not my intent to suggest that I find any ethnicity or subgroup of people 'less than' in any way. I am possessed of what I consider an informed opinion that the greater Russian cultural experience for nigh upon a century has been stunted by totalitarianism and the tools its purveyors use to systemically eliminate the expressions that the human spirit depends upon to further its best virtues. I find it hard to argue the opposite, but I could have been less antagonistic towards a known sympathizer. A mutual friend's wise council was crucial in my reassessment of conduct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
all swedes are racist Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 just fyi this is rrl, not solo, but thanks for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldGimletEye Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 A bit old: Evidently people that believe "across state lines" are brainiacs. People that believed Trump and the Republican Party had a credible health care plan are real geniuses. But according to Orrin Hatch: http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/aca-support-climbs-hatch-calls-laws-supporters-dumbass-people Quote “Now, if you didn’t catch on, I was being very sarcastic. That was the stupidest, dumbass bill that I’ve ever seen. Now, some of you may have loved it. If you do, you are one of the stupidest, dumbass people I’ve ever met.” Hatch is a sorry ass Republican clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Speaking of sorry ass clowns, Cadet Bone Spurs tweeted his ransom demands for the tariffs today; Quote President Trump signaled in a Monday morning tweet that he is open to axing his newly announced tariffs on steel and aluminum if the U.S. successfully negotiates a new NAFTA deal with Mexico and Canada. Tweets found here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I think the title of the next thread is gonna have to be Blame Canada. I don't think NAFTA is going to be re-negotiated in the next few days. I was looking for a story to post about his latest attacks on Canada, as the destroyer of the US economy, but there are so many stories, dating back to the start of his election campaign. On the bright side of things, we're in good company, since he renewed his attacks on Obama as well, blaming him for not attacking the Russians more aggressively on interfering in the election. eta: thanks, Nasty LongRider! Great minds et al! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 19 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: I think the title of the next thread is gonna have to be Blame Canada. I don't think NAFTA is going to be re-negotiated in the next few days. I was looking for a story to post about his latest attacks on Canada, as the destroyer of the US economy, but there are so many stories, dating back to the start of his election campaign. On the bright side of things, we're in good company, since he renewed his attacks on Obama as well, blaming him for not attacking the Russians more aggressively on interfering in the election. eta: thanks, Nasty LongRider! Great minds et al! Some how, I don't think Canada and Mexico will take the NAFTA bait as far as the tariffs go. They see right through CBS just like we through his hair to his shiny dome. Axios put this out today, perhaps knowledge of this fueled the Obama rage tweets? Quote Axios has reviewed a Grand Jury subpoena that Robert Mueller's team sent to a witness last month. What Mueller is asking for: Mueller is subpoenaing all communications — meaning emails, texts, handwritten notes, etc. — that this witness sent and received regarding the following people: Carter Page Corey Lewandowski Donald J. Trump Hope Hicks Keith Schiller Michael Cohen Paul Manafort Rick Gates Roger Stone Steve Bannon NBC News is also reporting on the subpoena list: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/special-counsel-wants-documents-trump-numerous-campaign-associates-n853386 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ormond Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 21 hours ago, Fragile Bird said: I have spent the last year reading everyone’s opinion that there’s no way the Republicans will lose the House because of severe gerrymandering. Have things changed that much? What? How on earth did you come to the conclusion that is "everyone's opinion"? It certainly hasn't been the opinion of everyone on this thread over the past year. Maybe you are confusing this with some other place on the Internet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sivin Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 51 minutes ago, Nasty LongRider said: Some how, I don't think Canada and Mexico will take the NAFTA bait as far as the tariffs go. They see right through CBS just like we through his hair to his shiny dome. Our neighbors have an opportunity to help Democracy by flexing their muscle to bring America to its knees. Please, Canadians. You know we've got your back if Russia invaded or some shit, PLEASE try to throw our economy into a tailspin so that Authoritarianism on the continent can be at least checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ormond said: What? How on earth did you come to the conclusion that is "everyone's opinion"? It certainly hasn't been the opinion of everyone on this thread over the past year. Maybe you are confusing this with some other place on the Internet. No, this is the only US Politics discussion I take part in! Some people post cheerful, positive thoughts about Democrats winning seats, and then others step in and say stuff like "calm down, don't get your hopes up, state districts are so gerrymandered there's no way to win", and cite how much the Democrat vote has to go up to win, and then the persons who first posted say, "yes, I understand, I am expecting the Republicans to win, but I can hope". The underlying expectation by the majority of the positive people is the gerrymandering is too strong, the underlying expectation of the cynical is, don't hope too much. I guess people are starting to get more hopeful, but has it really moved so far over that taking Congress is expected? When was that line crossed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, WinterFox said: Our neighbors have an opportunity to help Democracy by flexing their muscle to bring America to its knees. Please, Canadians. You know we've got your back if Russia invaded or some shit, PLEASE try to throw our economy into a tailspin so that Authoritarianism on the continent can be at least checked. Oh no, can't agree with that, throwing the economy into a tailspin would be terrible and would have the possibility of increasing Authoritarianism rather than decreasing it. Not to mention, hurting many, many people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAROVORKIN Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 15 minutes ago, WinterFox said: Our neighbors have an opportunity to help Democracy by flexing their muscle to bring America to its knees. Please, Canadians. You know we've got your back if Russia invaded or some shit, PLEASE try to throw our economy into a tailspin so that Authoritarianism on the continent can be at least checked. Economic turmoil is a really bad thing to hope for because will negatively effect everyone. Technically , The US is a republic. And are you are forgetting that we don't vote directly for the President? We have an Electoral College that does that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, WinterFox said: Our neighbors have an opportunity to help Democracy by flexing their muscle to bring America to its knees. Please, Canadians. You know we've got your back if Russia invaded or some shit, PLEASE try to throw our economy into a tailspin so that Authoritarianism on the continent can be at least checked. Yah, no. The Canadian dollar has already been falling (below 80 cents US) as we watch the NAFTA talks getting nastier and nastier. Donald Trump did tweet "trade wars are easy to win" for a reason. If NAFTA isn't signed, you can bet the Canadian dollar falls to somewhere close to 50 cents. Do you know what that does to us? Do you know how much we import? You're way to young to understand how fucking brutal 20% inflation rates are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ormond said: What? How on earth did you come to the conclusion that is "everyone's opinion"? It certainly hasn't been the opinion of everyone on this thread over the past year. Maybe you are confusing this with some other place on the Internet. People on these threads back in 2010-2012 commented that the House was so gerrymandered that the Democrats cannot possibly retake it until 2020, because the maps were drawn specifically to prevent a Democrats wave a la 2006 from being sufficient. Since then the Florida and Pennsylvania maps were thrown out, which reduced (FL) and eliminated (PA) the second and third most effective state gerrymanders for Republicans (TX being #1). There have also been demographic shifts which have occurred between 2010 and 2018, like the population of Florida has grown approximately 2 million since 2010, which can make "safe" districts less safe. The result is that some of the Republican advantage from 2010 redistricting has been eroded. It's hard to say how much, but by my rough estimate, perhaps 30% or so. Add to this Trump's terrible favorability ratings, an energized democratic base and historical trends which show the president's party typically losing ground in midterm elections, and there's reason to think that the Democrats COULD win the 24 seats necessary to flip the House. But it is by no means a sure thing. The combination of Democrats historically underperforming in midterm elections and the still very favorable House map for Republicans means it is very possible that the Republicans can still squeak by with a slim majority in 2018. It may depend on how much infighting flares up between Democrats in the next six months, which will no doubt be exacerbated by ongoing Russian efforts to destroy our democracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ormond Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Maithanet said: People on these threads back in 2010-2012 commented that the House was so gerrymandered that the Democrats cannot possibly retake it until 2020, because the maps were drawn specifically to prevent a Democrats wave a la 2006 from being sufficient. Some people said this, but it was never "everyone." And more to the point, I was replying to a post where it was claimed "everyone" on the thread believed this "over the past year", not back in 2012. People have been developing the arguments you make in the rest of your post over the last year. I've read all of them before myself, with the only recent new factor being the Pennsylvania redistricting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: Yah, no. The Canadian dollar has already been falling (below 80 cents US) as we watch the NAFTA talks getting nastier and nastier. Donald Trump did tweet "trade wars are easy to win" for a reason. If NAFTA isn't signed, you can bet the Canadian dollar falls to somewhere close to 50 cents. Do you know what that does to us? Do you know how much we import? You're way to young to understand how fucking brutal 20% inflation rates are. I would bet no such thing. In large part because Trump's ability to "pull out" of NAFTA is extremely suspect. NAFTA was ratified by Congress and most of it's provisions are standing law in the US. Which Trump can't repeal just by saying so. You'd basically end up with some insane sorta-NAFTA where the US is officially not part of NAFTA but is still forced to obey almost all the rules of NAFTA. And if there's one thing the last year should have taught you it's that what Trump says in his populist moron rantings has basically no effect on what Congress actually does. And Congress as far as anything we've ever seen has no interest in Trump's idiot-populist economic bullshit. Uncertainty on the issue would certainly be bad for Canada, as it already is, but the NAFTA negotiations are a lot more of a clusterfuck then they are some place where Trump holds all the power and that blunts the effect on the Canadian economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: You're way to young to understand how fucking brutal 20% inflation rates are. I remember that shit, and no, do not wish that on Canada at all! (yes I know your comment wasn't pointed at me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Maithanet said: People on these threads back in 2010-2012 commented that the House was so gerrymandered that the Democrats cannot possibly retake it until 2020, because the maps were drawn specifically to prevent a Democrats wave a la 2006 from being sufficient. Since then the Florida and Pennsylvania maps were thrown out, which reduced (FL) and eliminated (PA) the second and third most effective state gerrymanders for Republicans (TX being #1). There have also been demographic shifts which have occurred between 2010 and 2018, like the population of Florida has grown approximately 2 million since 2010, which can make "safe" districts less safe. The result is that some of the Republican advantage from 2010 redistricting has been eroded. It's hard to say how much, but by my rough estimate, perhaps 30% or so. Add to this Trump's terrible favorability ratings, an energized democratic base and historical trends which show the president's party typically losing ground in midterm elections, and there's reason to think that the Democrats COULD win the 24 seats necessary to flip the House. But it is by no means a sure thing. The combination of Democrats historically underperforming in midterm elections and the still very favorable House map for Republicans means it is very possible that the Republicans can still squeak by with a slim majority in 2018. It may depend on how much infighting flares up between Democrats in the next six months, which will no doubt be exacerbated by ongoing Russian efforts to destroy our democracy. People were saying that only with the unstated assumption that Democrats would not have a massive wave election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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