Why didn’t Robb just focus on Tywin?

[Bernie Mac]

On 04/03/2018 at 9:44 AM, Lordth said:

Roose literally sent Glover in a suicide mission.

Yes, Roose sent Glover against an enemy who greatly outmatched him, much like Robb sending Roose against Tywin as both were thinking of the bigger picture, Robb freeing Riverrun and gaining their support and Roose weakening Robb loyalists/rivals for the North. 

Both were sent on their missions but both Roose and Glover still commanded the battle. Roose's caution saved a larger percentage of his force than Glover's command did. Glover seemed to lunge straight in, which is what a brave commander would do, he likely would have done the same against Twyin and while that may have meant he killed more Tywin's force it would also have seen him defeated with a larger percentage of his force wiped out. 

Roose was absolutely the right choice for the Battle of the Green Fork. But leaving him in command for an idle force for almost a year was not that great and not something that Cat advised (as she is often blamed for this). 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

That's a completely different battle that absolutely doesn't fit  as analogy.

lol You made a point and another battle utterly disproves it.

In fact let us revisit your original quote

Quote

Robb took the more dangerous job like his father would have.

• The split at the Twins; common sense tells the reader that Roose was given the more dangerous job
• The plan to take Moat Cailin, where Robb assigns the Greatjon with the most dangerous job
• Battle of the Camps, the Blackfish was assigned the most dangerous job, leading the Van
• Battle of Whispering Wood; Robb sends the Blackfish and a few hundred men to harry Jaime into attacking
• Ned at the battle of the Trident does not take the most dangerous job, that is left to Robert who leads the Vanguard. 

Cat is clearly biased towards her son and husband in this regard, only really caring about their safety. She is visably angry that he did not have someone else go to war as she feels he should have stayed at home. 

You think Robb always takes the dangerous jobs than give examples and explain why. 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

 

Neither Tywin nor Jaime were in a fortress, but in the field.

Jaime's force was holding a siege. This makes them vulnerable from attacks as they are then trapped between the walls of Riverrun and Robb's approaching army. 

And Jaime's force was split into three and thanks to the Blackfish's knowledge of the castle he was born in he knew that Robb would not be facing all of Jaime's force. Riverrun was designed 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

Robb's forces also clearly outnumbered the Ironborn while the Lannister forces outnumbered his.

It actually was not clear. Robb had no idea how many Ironborn were left. 

And yes, Tywin outnumbered Roose. More importantly though he had 7,500 mounted warriors compared to the 600 Robb gave to Roose. 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

Robb picked the Greatjon for this given his job is to distract an enemy, and to put up a fierce fight, which actually suits the Greatjon. 

Sure. Just like he picked Roose because he was cautious. Robb tries to pick the best men for the role, he does not, like you claimed, pick the most dangerous job as that would be idiotic. 

 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

 

I mistook your number thinking the 3k referred to Robb's cavalry instead of Jaime's. Either way Robb was outnumbered more than 2 to 1,

Not that we know. 

At the battle of the Whispering Wood it was Robb with 6k Northern and Frey mounted warriors and an unknown amount of Mallister and other Riverland soldiers against Jaime's 3k. Robb outnumbered Jaime at the battle of the Whispering Wood more than 2:1

At the battle of the camps there was 12k Lannisters (pretty much all foot) split into three camps, one camp led by Forley Prester was completely cut off the battle due to the design of Riverrun while Robb had 6k Northern and Frey cavalry, an unknown amount of Mallister and other Riverland soldiers as well as the garrison in Riverrun that joined the fight. Robb was not outnumbered here 2:1

 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

 

and 15,000 men is still 15,000.

No. A mounted soldier is more dangerous, more valuable than a soldier on foot. Are you really disputing this?

 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

 

He would potentially be facing a shieldwall with twice as many infantry as Robb's forces that could withstand a cavalry charge with 3000 enemy cavalry to flank them. However, Robb played it smart. 

Exactly. He had the Blackfish with him letting him know the designs of Riverrun. He picked the smart, not the dangerous option. He gave the dangerous job to Roose. 

 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

Common sense? Robb lead a cavalry charge against the infantry before the gates of Riverrun, and the Lannister infantry managed to hold off the cavalry until they're taken in the rear by Blackwood. A shieldwall can stop a cavalry charge, especially given the Lannisters as GRRM noted, have the best infantry.

No one has denied any of this. No one is disputing that warfare is not dangerous, of course it is. Pretty much every command position in medieval warfare will have an element of danger. 

But Robb gave Roose the more dangerous job, the job that was most likely to lose and with no cavalry nor Riverland army allies was more likely to be routed. 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

 

  

That still would result in high casualties if the goal was to absolutely slaughter the Northern army. 

What exactly are you disputing here? GRRM makes it clear that Roose prevented more casualties. Robb's decision was vindicated. 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

No, math and military realities as well as the books show otherwise.

Go on then, quote the relevant math from the books. 

And miltary reality seems to be something you are glossing over here as you seem to be ignoring the significant difference between a mounted soldier and one on foot. 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

 

You're going against Cat's own words.

No, I'm pointing out that Cat was a little biased and not always correct when it came to the ways of military, after all she would not have been brought up to understand that. 

Another example of this is Cat's reaction to Renly's force. She whines why they are not attacking the Lannisters and saving her son and does not see the pragmatism in waiting for their entire force to actually turn up and allowing two rival kings weaken each other in battle. She thinks the should just rush in, she wrongly thinks that is what Ned would have done. She is wrong. 

GRRM has gone to great lengths to give these characters individual POV's with different sets of knowledge. Cat is a novice at warfare due to how she has been raised. Her understanding of it is not supposed to be fact. 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

 

Robb still was not immune to harm in battle even with guards

Who claimed otherwise?

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

 

as he was expected to fight. 

Was he? The only reason he was involved in the fight was because Jaime's force had been beaten

Robb looked away into the woods, with the same brooding look that Ned often got. "He . . . he killed them . . . "

 "Lord Karstark's sons," Galbart Glover explained.

 "Both of them," said Robb. "Torrhen and Eddard. And Daryn Hornwood as well."

 "No one can fault Lannister on his courage," Glover said. "When he saw that he was lost, he rallied his retainers and fought his way up the valley, hoping to reach Lord Robb and cut him down. And almost did."

"He mislaid his sword in Eddard Karstark's neck, after he took Torrhen's hand off and split Daryn Hornwood's skull open," Robb said. "All the time he was shouting for me. If they hadn't tried to stop him - "

 

I'm not sure there is any indication that he fought in that battle. As the commander he'd be, like most commanders in the series, doing so well protected and not in the van. Same goes for Ned, Tywin, Roose, Stannis and many others. It is only the likes of Robert and Jaime who would choose to take command from the Van. 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

So you're saying Roose was just going to sit around doing nothing? Commanders are expected to do some on the ground thinking. Robb was focused on bringing Tywin west. 

He was told to take Tywin by surprise. He did just that as we see the reactions from the Tyrion chapters. 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

His failures were political not military. 

His failures were both. 

Delegation is a military necessity. Communication is a military necessity. Leaving his capital undefended was a military cock up. Trusting Roose was a military disaster. 

15/16 year old generals are going to make military mistakes, some will get lucky and survive others won't be so lucky and fail. Robb was one of the unlucky ones but don't give me this shit that he made no military mistakes. 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

You're argument makes no sense.

Yeah it does. 

Robb and Roose had an objective so they both sent their subordinates to face an opponent they could not possibly win and with little to no cavalry were left in a dangerous position of being routed. 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

Glover was sent there following Roose's orders, and Roose purposely sent the Northern army to get destroyed knowing as he had thrown in with Tywin by then. 

Robb knew that Roose was outmatched by Tywin. Robb knew there would be thousands of Northern casualties. 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

It was a disaster, because Roose intended it. Glover wasn't expecting Tarly to attack him.

Then he should have been more cautious and more aware of the situation. Evidence again why he would have been an awful choice to lead at the Green Fork. 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

 

The odds weren't in his favor in that battle, but against him since he was set up.

The odds were not in Roose's favor. He was set up to lose, his task was to not lose too many. 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

He was pinned against the sea which is a bad position.

Did he not think of this before hand? Roose only told him the target, nothing else. 

"Tell him to put the captives to the sword and the castle to the torch, by command of the king. Then he is to join forces with Robett Glover and strike east toward Duskendale. Those are rich lands, and hardly touched by the fighting. It is time they had a taste."

The rest was up to Glover. Him blindly following orders with no common sense is probably another reason why he would have been an awful choice. 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

 

Instead of getting pushed into the sea with his army destroyed a la the Fishfeed in the Dance of Dragons, he manages to get his forces out of there and inflict heavy casualties.

How many is heavy?

And he still got his army destroyed, himself took prisoner. 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

This was also against Tarly "the finest soldier in the realm" who inflicted the only defeat on Robert in the Battle of Ashford using only his vangauard. That in and of itself is a feat. 

It is a defeat. 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

No numbers are given as to how many men were lost on Tarly's side. It also isn't given how many men Tarly had with him, but I am guessing as large as Glover's or larger. 

So guess work. 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

Condescension is uncalled for. 

Sure it is when you cite a tumblr professor. 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

Atwell is an actual historian with knowledge of medieval warfare, politics, history and customs. He does re-reads of the chapters doing military and political analyses. That quote was from his analysis of the chapter showing the Battle of the Green Fork. 

He also asks people to pay for his views. The Starks and Stannis fans are the biggest and most passionate fandoms in the series. An easy way to make money of such people is tell them what they want to hear, makes them feel good about their opinions. 

 

On 04/03/2018 at 10:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

Roose is weakening his rivals, and at the very least thinking of joining the Lannisters.

At the battle of the Green Fork? Nonsense. 

Why does he not warn Tywin about Edmure's plans? Why does he allow the Lannister garrison of Harrenhal to be slaughtered?

It is not until much later, after Stannis has been beaten and Robb's marriage does he change sides. 

 

[Kandrax]

10 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Yes, Roose sent Glover against an enemy who greatly outmatched him, much like Robb sending Roose against Tywin as both were thinking of the bigger picture, Robb freeing Riverrun and gaining their support and Roose weakening Robb loyalists/rivals for the North. 

Both were sent on their missions but both Roose and Glover still commanded the battle. Roose's caution saved a larger percentage of his force than Glover's command did. Glover seemed to lunge straight in, which is what a brave commander would do, he likely would have done the same against Twyin and while that may have meant he killed more Tywin's force it would also have seen him defeated with a larger percentage of his force wiped out. 

Roose was absolutely the right choice for the Battle of the Green Fork. But leaving him in command for an idle force for almost a year was not that great and not something that Cat advised (as she is often blamed for this). 

lol You made a point and another battle utterly disproves it.

In fact let us revisit your original quote

• The split at the Twins; common sense tells the reader that Roose was given the more dangerous job
• The plan to take Moat Cailin, where Robb assigns the Greatjon with the most dangerous job
• Battle of the Camps, the Blackfish was assigned the most dangerous job, leading the Van
• Battle of Whispering Wood; Robb sends the Blackfish and a few hundred men to harry Jaime into attacking
• Ned at the battle of the Trident does not take the most dangerous job, that is left to Robert who leads the Vanguard. 

Cat is clearly biased towards her son and husband in this regard, only really caring about their safety. She is visably angry that he did not have someone else go to war as she feels he should have stayed at home. 

You think Robb always takes the dangerous jobs than give examples and explain why. 

Jaime's force was holding a siege. This makes them vulnerable from attacks as they are then trapped between the walls of Riverrun and Robb's approaching army. 

And Jaime's force was split into three and thanks to the Blackfish's knowledge of the castle he was born in he knew that Robb would not be facing all of Jaime's force. Riverrun was designed 

It actually was not clear. Robb had no idea how many Ironborn were left. 

And yes, Tywin outnumbered Roose. More importantly though he had 7,500 mounted warriors compared to the 600 Robb gave to Roose. 

Sure. Just like he picked Roose because he was cautious. Robb tries to pick the best men for the role, he does not, like you claimed, pick the most dangerous job as that would be idiotic. 

 

Not that we know. 

At the battle of the Whispering Wood it was Robb with 6k Northern and Frey mounted warriors and an unknown amount of Mallister and other Riverland soldiers against Jaime's 3k. Robb outnumbered Jaime at the battle of the Whispering Wood more than 2:1

At the battle of the camps there was 12k Lannisters (pretty much all foot) split into three camps, one camp led by Forley Prester was completely cut off the battle due to the design of Riverrun while Robb had 6k Northern and Frey cavalry, an unknown amount of Mallister and other Riverland soldiers as well as the garrison in Riverrun that joined the fight. Robb was not outnumbered here 2:1

 

No. A mounted soldier is more dangerous, more valuable than a soldier on foot. Are you really disputing this?

 

Exactly. He had the Blackfish with him letting him know the designs of Riverrun. He picked the smart, not the dangerous option. He gave the dangerous job to Roose. 

 

No one has denied any of this. No one is disputing that warfare is not dangerous, of course it is. Pretty much every command position in medieval warfare will have an element of danger. 

But Robb gave Roose the more dangerous job, the job that was most likely to lose and with no cavalry nor Riverland army allies was more likely to be routed. 

What exactly are you disputing here? GRRM makes it clear that Roose prevented more casualties. Robb's decision was vindicated. 

Go on then, quote the relevant math from the books. 

And miltary reality seems to be something you are glossing over here as you seem to be ignoring the significant difference between a mounted soldier and one on foot. 

No, I'm pointing out that Cat was a little biased and not always correct when it came to the ways of military, after all she would not have been brought up to understand that. 

Another example of this is Cat's reaction to Renly's force. She whines why they are not attacking the Lannisters and saving her son and does not see the pragmatism in waiting for their entire force to actually turn up and allowing two rival kings weaken each other in battle. She thinks the should just rush in, she wrongly thinks that is what Ned would have done. She is wrong. 

GRRM has gone to great lengths to give these characters individual POV's with different sets of knowledge. Cat is a novice at warfare due to how she has been raised. Her understanding of it is not supposed to be fact. 

Who claimed otherwise?

Was he? The only reason he was involved in the fight was because Jaime's force had been beaten

Robb looked away into the woods, with the same brooding look that Ned often got. "He . . . he killed them . . . "

 "Lord Karstark's sons," Galbart Glover explained.

 "Both of them," said Robb. "Torrhen and Eddard. And Daryn Hornwood as well."

 "No one can fault Lannister on his courage," Glover said. "When he saw that he was lost, he rallied his retainers and fought his way up the valley, hoping to reach Lord Robb and cut him down. And almost did."

"He mislaid his sword in Eddard Karstark's neck, after he took Torrhen's hand off and split Daryn Hornwood's skull open," Robb said. "All the time he was shouting for me. If they hadn't tried to stop him - "

 

I'm not sure there is any indication that he fought in that battle. As the commander he'd be, like most commanders in the series, doing so well protected and not in the van. Same goes for Ned, Tywin, Roose, Stannis and many others. It is only the likes of Robert and Jaime who would choose to take command from the Van. 

He was told to take Tywin by surprise. He did just that as we see the reactions from the Tyrion chapters. 

His failures were both. 

Delegation is a military necessity. Communication is a military necessity. Leaving his capital undefended was a military cock up. Trusting Roose was a military disaster. 

15/16 year old generals are going to make military mistakes, some will get lucky and survive others won't be so lucky and fail. Robb was one of the unlucky ones but don't give me this shit that he made no military mistakes. 

Yeah it does. 

Robb and Roose had an objective so they both sent their subordinates to face an opponent they could not possibly win and with little to no cavalry were left in a dangerous position of being routed. 

Robb knew that Roose was outmatched by Tywin. Robb knew there would be thousands of Northern casualties. 

Then he should have been more cautious and more aware of the situation. Evidence again why he would have been an awful choice to lead at the Green Fork. 

The odds were not in Roose's favor. He was set up to lose, his task was to not lose too many. 

Did he not think of this before hand? Roose only told him the target, nothing else. 

"Tell him to put the captives to the sword and the castle to the torch, by command of the king. Then he is to join forces with Robett Glover and strike east toward Duskendale. Those are rich lands, and hardly touched by the fighting. It is time they had a taste."

The rest was up to Glover. Him blindly following orders with no common sense is probably another reason why he would have been an awful choice. 

How many is heavy?

And he still got his army destroyed, himself took prisoner. 

It is a defeat. 

So guess work. 

Sure it is when you cite a tumblr professor. 

He also asks people to pay for his views. The Starks and Stannis fans are the biggest and most passionate fandoms in the series. An easy way to make money of such people is tell them what they want to hear, makes them feel good about their opinions. 

 

At the battle of the Green Fork? Nonsense. 

Why does he not warn Tywin about Edmure's plans? Why does he allow the Lannister garrison of Harrenhal to be slaughtered?

It is not until much later, after Stannis has been beaten and Robb's marriage does he change sides. 

 

I aggre with you. Roose wasn't entirely loyal to Robb, but he didn't plan to betray him from get-go.

PS: Earlier, i started the topic called Myth of Bolton-Frey conspiracy from day one.

[Bernie Mac]

30 minutes ago, Kandrax said:

I aggre with you. Roose wasn't entirely loyal to Robb, but he didn't plan to betray him from get-go.

PS: Earlier, i started the topic called Myth of Bolton-Frey conspiracy from day one.

Personally I think Arya's last chapter in ACOK is when Roose gives up and betrays Robb. Up until then both served him, Roose may have made sure his own safety came first, but there is nothing to show that he was working for the other side. 

It just has too much information in a pretty short passage of time; the Stannis defeat and the reaction from the castle to it (dread), the Frey's outraged as they hear of Robb's marriage as well as the symbolism of Roose going out hunting for Direwolves and him lying to  Glover about Robb ordering him to attack Duskendale. 

Roose taking Harrenhal makes little sense if he was working for Tywin at that point. He could have weakened his army much sooner if that was his intention sending small groups to face Tywin. 

 

 

[Corvo the Crow]

Robb, with the addition of Freys, had some 17k foot and 6k horse. Had he attacked against Tywin's 20k with 7,5k or so horse, he would most likely have victory on that battle, yes, but it wouldn't be worth it. Just look at Roose he has 10k men left after the battle, not counting Freys which committed 2,5k or so men at start and these men are all foot save for a small fraction. Tywin with much more horse would have a greater part of his army survive the retreat and would just retreat all the way to the Ruby ford, or even across it to Harrenhal. With Jaime now aware of Robb's where bouts, he could simply leave some portion of his army to keep the siege on Riverrun and take the rest up to the Twins.

Outcome: Robb is denied passage on both possible crossings of the Greenfork/Trident and he is denied more men he would get once Lannisters are removed from the heart of Riverlands.

 

Quote

Ser Kevan frowned over the map, forehead creasing. "Robb Stark will have Edmure Tully and the lords of the Trident with him now. Their combined power may exceed our own. And with Roose Bolton behind us … Tywin, if we remain here, I fear we might be caught between three armies." 

"I have no intention of remaining here. We must finish our business with young Lord Stark before Renly Baratheon can march from Highgarden. Bolton does not concern me. He is a wary man, and we made him warier on the Green Fork. He will be slow to give pursuit. So … on the morrow, we make for Harrenhal. Kevan, I want Ser Addam's outriders to screen our movements. Give him as many men as he requires, and send them out in groups of four. I will have no vanishings."

 

[Stormking902]

On 03/03/2018 at 9:25 PM, Fire Eater said:

Robb took the more dangerous job like his father would have. He managed to create a huge setback for Tywin by destroying Jaime's army, and lifting the siege at Riverrun, effectively blocking him off from his home base. 

Robb's only mistake was picking Roose Bolton in charge of the army meeting Tywin instead of someone like Robett Glover.

It seems Roose was loyal at this time IMO, he only had 2k men to fight Tywins what 20k? Roose did what he could and retreated in good fashion. 

[Bernie Mac]

3 minutes ago, Stormking902 said:

It seems Roose was loyal at this time IMO, he only had 2k men to fight Tywins what 20k? Roose did what he could and retreated in good fashion. 

Roose had around 17k. But apart from 600 horse it was all foot. 

[Stormking902]

3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Roose had around 17k. But apart from 600 horse it was all foot. 

Which battle was this? I havent read books in forever but I thought Robb at the whispering wood had all his army save 2k he sent with Roose to play decoy? 

[Universal Sword Donor]

23 minutes ago, Stormking902 said:

Which battle was this? I havent read books in forever but I thought Robb at the whispering wood had all his army save 2k he sent with Roose to play decoy? 

That was the show. He did split his army (infantry vs cavalry) but the 2K figure is the show.

[Universal Sword Donor]

On 3/3/2018 at 10:22 PM, Bernie Mac said:

I think you are confused on this one. 

Nope, as Tywin makes quite clear, Roose's caution stopped it from being a rout. 

“The remnants of the Stark lines shattered like glass beneath the hammer of their charge.”

Sounds like a rout to me but maybe that's just the POV talking. Roose clearly does a good job in reforming the army but if the Stark army didn't rout in part at the very least, the casualties would not have been nearly so high.

On 3/3/2018 at 10:22 PM, Bernie Mac said:

He lost 1/5th, not half. 

He started out with, say 17,500, men. If we go by what Edmure says, Roose has ten thousand men left after the GF. That (~7000) is a sight more lost than 1/5 (~3500). If we go by the wiki calculation, which I haven't looked through in detail, then he lost a third (~5500).

That's a pretty staggeringly high casualty rate for an army in a pitched medieval battle, in Westeros or our planet. The field of fire only killed ~5000 people and that had effing dragons. Prominent battles like Agincourt, Crecy, Golden Spurs, had much lower casualty rates for the losers as well. 

As to the overall Roose strategy, there are a few things that could really go either way but the way the battle and preparations culminate, Roose is either incompetent or deliberately weakening his rivals. GRRM pretty much says that in a SSM:

Had his night march taken Lord Tywin unawares and won the battle, he would have smashed the Lannisters and become the hero of the hour. While if it failed... well, you see what happened. The only way he could lose there would be if were captured or slain himself, and he did his best to minimize the chances of that.

I can buy the night march. Trumpeting your presence a mile from camp, letting men spread across leagues of camp arm themselves and their horses, then give up the high ground to a cavalry heavy opponent? Yeah that is not something I can accept from a competent commander. 

[Blackfish Tully]

On 3/3/2018 at 7:47 PM, Trigger Warning said:

Pitched battles are too risky and most commanders in history spent most of their time doing what's in their power to avoid them especially when not on their terms, to quote some guy on youtube. 

"A realistic battle is several days of skirmishing, then one commander goes on a hill and the other leaves"

Guess Robb didn't want to bet everything on one clash with Tywin, especially with another Lannister army in the field.

I agree with this 100% , with the information that Robb had at that time why take the risk and gamble it all on one battle? Robb was looking to win the war not just one battle . Tywin was the one who was dealing with multiple enemies on multiple fronts  so Robb was smart to go to the Westerlands and crushing the army there and plundering Tywin's resources and cutting him off from reinforcements . Renly was heading to Kings Landing and Tywin was in a horrible place because his plan to crush the Riverlands and take them out of the war had failed because of Robb. If the shadowbaby had not killed Renly (which nobody saw coming) then Robb's plans would have more then likely resulted in the destruction of the Lannisters. Tywin knew he was in trouble .

 

Ser Kevan did as he was bid. Lord Tywin unrolled the leather, smoothing it flat. "Jaime has left us in a bad way. Roose Bolton and the remnants of his host are north of us. Our enemies hold the Twins and Moat Cailin. Robb Stark sits to the west, so we cannot retreat to Lannisport and the Rock unless we choose to give battle. Jaime is taken, and his army for all purposes has ceased to exist. Thoros of Myr and Beric Dondarrion continue to plague our foraging parties. To our east we have the Arryns, Stannis Baratheon sits on Dragonstone, and in the south Highgarden and Storm's End are calling their banners."

Tyrion smiled crookedly. "Take heart, Father. At least Rhaegar Targaryen is still dead."

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

7 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

It actually was not clear. Robb had no idea how many Ironborn were left. 

He learns that the Iron Fleet and its captains are going to be back in the Iron Islands. His plan relied specifically on numbers and surprise to overwhelm them. He might have known exactly how many IB were left but he certainly had a grasp on the maximum. 

[Bernie Mac]

17 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

“The remnants of the Stark lines shattered like glass beneath the hammer of their charge.”

Sounds like a rout to me but maybe that's just the POV talking.

No, a rout is "A disorderly retreat of defeated troops." Tywin was hoping a less cautious commander would fall into his trap and then be able to take advantage of the rout as his cavalry can easily pick them off (like the Mountain was able to do to Glover's host at Dusknedale) the rout never materialised to Tywin's disappointment. 

17 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

 

Roose clearly does a good job in reforming the army but if the Stark army didn't rout in part at the very least, the casualties would not have been nearly so high.

The casualties were low according to Tywin, he expected more. Robb makes no comment on the casualties though is pissed with Edmure and Glover for the casualties they receive. 

Roose was expected to get beat, he was expected to suffer large losses. That is why he needed Roose rather than a braver commander who would lose all and leave Winterfell vulnerable to attack. 

Her son considered that for a moment. "The eastern host will be all that stands between Lord Tywin and Winterfell," he said thoughtfully. "Well, them and whatever few bowmen I leave here at the Moat. So I don't want someone fearless, do I?"

 

17 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

He started out with, say 17,500, men. If we go by what Edmure says, Roose has ten thousand men left after the GF. That (~7000) is a sight more lost than 1/5 (~3500). If we go by the wiki calculation, which I haven't looked through in detail, then he lost a third (~5500).

Robb either has 18,000 or 19,500 at Moat Cailin (he also leaves a few hundred archers at Moat Cailin). It is not really clear if the Manderly's were included or not. On top of that the Freys's have 4k men, 1k goes with Robb, 2,600 with Roose and the remaining 400 stay at the Twins as well as another 400 Northmen per Cat's suggestion.  We are looking at 17k or under. 

And of course there is how many months between the battle of the Green Fork and the battle of the Fords? There would have been losses and desertions to an army with no castle and no source of provisions other than to hunt or pillage. 

17 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

As to the overall Roose strategy, there are a few things that could really go either way but the way the battle and preparations culminate, Roose is either incompetent or deliberately weakening his rivals. GRRM pretty much says that in a SSM:

Had his night march taken Lord Tywin unawares and won the battle, he would have smashed the Lannisters and become the hero of the hour. While if it failed... well, you see what happened. The only way he could lose there would be if were captured or slain himself, and he did his best to minimize the chances of that.

 

None of that says that Roose was incompetent or was deliberately weakening his rivals, sorry to be rude buy you have pulled that out of your ass.  What it says is that victory was goof good for him and being captured or slain was bad for him. 

17 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

I can buy the night march. Trumpeting your presence a mile from camp

Except he didn't. 

Groggy, he sat up and threw back the blanket. The horns called through the night, wild and urgent, a cry that said hurry hurry hurry. He heard shouts, the clatter of spears, the whicker of horses, though nothing yet that spoke to him of fighting. "My lord father's trumpets," he said. "Battle assembly. I thought Stark was yet a day's march away."

Unfortunately this is not the first time we have had this exact same discussion with you wrongly claiming that Roose sounded the trumpets. 

 

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

17 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

No, a rout is "A disorderly retreat of defeated troops." Tywin was hoping a less cautious commander would fall into his trap and then be able to take advantage of the rout as his cavalry can easily pick them off (like the Mountain was able to do to Glover's host at Dusknedale) the rout never materialised to Tywin's disappointment. 

“The remnants of the Stark lines shattered like glass beneath the hammer of their charge.
With his elbow swollen and throbbing inside his armor, Tyrion made no attempt to join the slaughter. He and Bronn went looking for his men. Many he found among the dead. ”

Once the line shattered, what do you think they were trying to do? Stand there while getting slaughtered? Once lines break in medieval warfare, the men start running.

17 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

The casualties were low according to Tywin, he expected more. Robb makes no comment on the casualties though is pissed with Edmure and Glover for the casualties they receive. 

Honestly this is pretty irrelevant. Tywin expected to trap Robb's entire army, or more to the point probably wanted Robb himself, dead or alive. 

17 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Roose was expected to get beat, he was expected to suffer large losses. That is why he needed Roose rather than a braver commander who would lose all and leave Winterfell vulnerable to attack. 

Her son considered that for a moment. "The eastern host will be all that stands between Lord Tywin and Winterfell," he said thoughtfully. "Well, them and whatever few bowmen I leave here at the Moat. So I don't want someone fearless, do I?"

Oh I agree that Roose was prima facie a better choice than Greatjon. Notice how I didn't make that argument though? Any number of people could have been given command without having to use Roose.

Roose was supposed to march down and engage Tywin.

“When Lord Tywin gets word that we’ve come south, he’ll march north to engage our main host, leaving our riders free to hurry down the west bank to Riverrun.”

That can mean a lot of things. It can mean moving his army to deny passage to Tywin coming North. It can mean a pitched battle. It can be merely keeping Tywin close by so he cannot help Jaime. Anything Roose did that kept Tywin on the eastern side of the Trident accomplishes what Robb wants.

17 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Robb either has 18,000 or 19,500 at Moat Cailin (he also leaves a few hundred archers at Moat Cailin). It is not really clear if the Manderly's were included or not. On top of that the Freys's have 4k men, 1k goes with Robb, 2,600 with Roose and the remaining 400 stay at the Twins as well as another 400 Northmen per Cat's suggestion.  We are looking at 17k or under. 

And of course there is how many months between the battle of the Green Fork and the battle of the Fords? There would have been losses and desertions to an army with no castle and no source of provisions other than to hunt or pillage. 

Bolton regrouped the army several hundreds of miles away from the Green Fork battle and was back at the Ruby Ford within 3 months, if not a bit sooner. We learn this from Arya but it's from a chapter at HH that spans a while. 

17 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

None of that says that Roose was incompetent or was deliberately weakening his rivals, sorry to be rude buy you have pulled that out of your ass.  What it says is that victory was goof good for him and being captured or slain was bad for him. 

The best way to not get captured is to be in the reserve when you're surrounded by your own men. I also forgot to include another SSM: 

As for Bolton, if you reread all his sections carefully, I think you will see a picture of a man keeping all his options open as long as he could... sniffing the wind, covering his tracks, ready to jump either way... even as late as his supper with Jaime at Harrenhal...

17 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Except he didn't. 

Groggy, he sat up and threw back the blanket. The horns called through the night, wild and urgent, a cry that said hurry hurry hurry. He heard shouts, the clatter of spears, the whicker of horses, though nothing yet that spoke to him of fighting. "My lord father's trumpets," he said. "Battle assembly. I thought Stark was yet a day's march away."

Unfortunately this is not the first time we have had this exact same discussion with you wrongly claiming that Roose sounded the trumpets. 

Sorry my mistake. It was the drums Roose used and trumpets Tywin used.

“He had no time to think about it. The drums were so near that the beat crept under his skin and set his hands to twitching. Bronn drew his longsword, and suddenly the enemy was there before them, boiling over the tops of the hills, advancing with measured tread behind a wall of shields and pikes.”

Excerpt From: George R. R. Martin. “A Game Of Thrones.” iBooks. 

I do enjoy you pulling one mistake and thinking that completely negates my point.

* "Cautious" Roose steals a night march on a wary Tywin, which Tyrion thinks is moronic. 

* Roose took a nearly all infantry force from the high ground to close in but not engage an army spread out over leagues. 

* Roose doesn't try to have his archers clear out the Lannister archers or vanguard before he engages his infantry

* Roose's men are all in the reserve while his neighbors and rivals for leadership are in the northern van, neighbors his son goes to war with and seizes their land and titles.

One or two of those being true could totally be coincidental or sloppy. Going opposite of conventional military strategy and completely opposite of one's typical decision making process while keeping yourself out of harms way? 

Well if you think Roose didn't plan it this way for a reason, I have a bridge in NY to sell you. So take it as incompetence or deliberately weakening his rivals. I prefer the latter, as it jives with what we see in the rest of the series.

[Bernie Mac]

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

“The remnants of the Stark lines shattered like glass beneath the hammer of their charge.
With his elbow swollen and throbbing inside his armor, Tyrion made no attempt to join the slaughter. He and Bronn went looking for his men. Many he found among the dead. ”

And yet the author has Tywin categorise it as not a rout. No character in the books call it a rout. The Lannisters are disappointed by it and given Robb's lack of reaction (as opposed to how he viewed Edmure and Glover) and Robb being more than happy for Roose to lead the Northern foot for the next 11 months we can only surmise that it went according to plan. 

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Once the line shattered, what do you think they were trying to do? Stand there while getting slaughtered? Once lines break in medieval warfare, the men start running.

Running does not automatically classify it as a rout

rout¹

raʊt/

noun

 

1.

a disorderly retreat of defeated troops.

 

Roose seems to have been able to retreat without his men being captured or killed, Glover seems to have fell victim to a rout. The more cunning of the two of them was the more organised. 

 

 

 

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Honestly this is pretty irrelevant.

Sure it is. If you had been following the conversation rather than simply being impressed by my lovely large red words you would have realized that the discussion was on Glover being a more suitable leader for the battle of the Green Fork. He was not, it needed a more cautious man not someone who goes into a battle against a larger and superior equipped army with little thought of an exit strategy. 

Robb (via Cat) picked the right man for that battle. 

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

 

Tywin expected to trap Robb's entire army, or more to the point probably wanted Robb himself, dead or alive. 

He had a game plan for a commander like the Greatjon, like Glover and unlike Roose. 

There is also a chance that the plan would have failed for Robb as well, clearly Tywin underestimated him, but Glover seems more in line with the Greatjon style of command than the Roose or possibly Robb. 

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Oh I agree that Roose was prima facie a better choice than Greatjon. Notice how I didn't make that argument though? Any number of people could have been given command without having to use Roose.

I agree, Roose was likely not the only choice but any number? Seriously?

Clearly the person leading is going to have to be more cunning than brave, be able to lead men and have a significant enough rank that the other nobles will not try to take over. 

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Roose was supposed to march down and engage Tywin.

“When Lord Tywin gets word that we’ve come south, he’ll march north to engage our main host, leaving our riders free to hurry down the west bank to Riverrun"

Which he did. 

 

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

That can mean a lot of things. It can mean moving his army to deny passage to Tywin coming North.

No, it could not. Don't be ridiculous. Why would Robb want Roose to move that far South if it was all about protection the North. 

Once again, grasping at straws. 

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

It can mean a pitched battle. It can be merely keeping Tywin close by so he cannot help Jaime.

These are the two most likely. Given his lack of cavalry engagement was always going to happen. 

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Anything Roose did that kept Tywin on the eastern side of the Trident accomplishes what Robb wants.

Robb was worried about being trapped between both Lannister armies. Read the first page, I have already quoted him stating that. He needed the other army engaged.

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Bolton regrouped the army several hundreds of miles away from the Green Fork battle and was back at the Ruby Ford within 3 months, if not a bit sooner. We learn this from Arya but it's from a chapter at HH that spans a while. 

What does any of that have to do with what I wrote?

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The best way to not get captured is to be in the reserve when you're surrounded by your own men. I also forgot to include another SSM: 

As for Bolton, if you reread all his sections carefully, I think you will see a picture of a man keeping all his options open as long as he could... sniffing the wind, covering his tracks, ready to jump either way... even as late as his supper with Jaime at Harrenhal...

Exactly. Betraying Robb at the battle of Green Fork is not keeping his options open. It is quite clearly picking a side. 

 

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Sorry my mistake. It was the drums Roose used and trumpets Tywin used.

But not at the same time. Marbrand's scouts spot the Northern host, the trumpets arise Tyrion wakes up, the Lannister army arise, march, get into formation and then Tyrion hears the drums. 

Bolton did not announce his position through trumpets or drums, his position was already known before the North started playing the war drums. 

As an aside the hidden Umbers also use their war drums against Roose at Winterfell. It is a psychological tool used in warfare, not some idiotic betrayal. 

 

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

 

I do enjoy you pulling one mistake and thinking that completely negates my point.

I do enjoy my time being wasted by the exact same discussions I have had in the past with you. 

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

* "Cautious" Roose steals a night march on a wary Tywin, which Tyrion thinks is moronic. 

No, he thinks there is no way that Robb was expected to surprise his father. 

Tyrion wondered what the boy had been thinking. Did he think to take them unawares while they slept? Small chance of that; whatever else might be said of him, Tywin Lannister was no man's fool.

And that is the exact point of Robb's plan, he did take Tywin by surprise, the surprise was that Roose was a distraction as he was off defeating Jaime and gaining the Riverlords. 

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

* Roose took a nearly all infantry force from the high ground to close in but not engage an army spread out over leagues. 

What? Can you give specifics on the ground, the forces, the hill top how vulnerable the hilltop was?  We simply do not have enough information about the terrain or the army formations to have any credible idea about what happened. GRRM simply does not go into such details. 

 

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

* Roose doesn't try to have his archers clear out the Lannister archers or vanguard before he engages his infantry

Does he not? Citation for this?

Did I gloss over the chapter were Roose or someone in his camp was giving up a play by play of what he was ordering?

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

* Roose's men are all in the reserve

Of course. Why would they not? This is common sense, it is not betrayal. 

Jaime is the same when he talks about taking Riverrun, sending the Riverlords first, the Freys second and holding his own men in reserve. 

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

 

while his neighbors and rivals for leadership are in the northern van, neighbors his son goes to war with and seizes their land and titles.

If I am not mistaken there is zero mention of which forces were in the Northern Van. I do believe you are confusing Tyrion's description of the battlefield with the Van

He glimpsed the bull moose of the Hornwoods, the Karstark sunburst, Lord Cerwyn's battle-axe, and the mailed fist of the Glovers … and the twin towers of Frey, blue on grey.

 

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

On March 3, 2018 at 9:09 PM, Bernie Mac said:

nt West, left Roose's force with no objectives, and given their lack of supplies they too had to get their food from the local populace (thus the constant references of Lions and Wolves being as bad as each other).  Maybe had Robb returned after Oxcross we would not have seen as much destruction in the Riverlands, the likes of Darry frequently changing hands or Maidenpool being sacked (by all sides) so many times. 

 

To be fair, Robb planned to take the cattle from the westerlands to give to the Riverlands in order to provide a food source-considering Tywin destroyed every crop he could get his hands on.

[Varysblackfyre321]

16 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

I'm not sure there is any indication that he fought in that battle. As the commander he'd be, like most commanders in the series, doing so well protected and not in the van. Same goes for Ned, Tywin, Roose, Stannis and many others. It is only the likes of Robert and Jaime who would choose to take command from the Van. 

That's a good point-I mean if Robb dies the whole movement is caput any way, and it's not as though him being totally immersed in the battle will really be practical. 

[Fire Eater]

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Yes, Roose sent Glover against an enemy who greatly outmatched him, much like Robb sending Roose against Tywin as both were thinking of the bigger picture, Robb freeing Riverrun and gaining their support and Roose weakening Robb loyalists/rivals for the North. 

Both were sent on their missions but both Roose and Glover still commanded the battle. Roose's caution saved a larger percentage of his force than Glover's command did. Glover seemed to lunge straight in, which is what a brave commander would do, he likely would have done the same against Twyin and while that may have meant he killed more Tywin's force it would also have seen him defeated with a larger percentage of his force wiped out. 

Roose was absolutely the right choice for the Battle of the Green Fork. But leaving him in command for an idle force for almost a year was not that great and not something that Cat advised (as she is often blamed for this). 

Except Robb wasn't purposefully setting Roose up for a disastrous defeat. Roose knew he was going to face Tywin, and how big an army Tywin had. Glover didn't know Tarly was headed for him, and that Gregor had taken Harrenhal. Roose was forewarned while Glover wasn't. Glover had to do with what he had, and he managing to inflict heavy casualties and retreat despite being pinned against the sea means he did an excellent job given the situation. 

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

lol You made a point and another battle utterly disproves it.

In fact let us revisit your original quote

No, it doesn't. I said Robb picked the most dangerous job in picking to fight Jaime Lannister not that he always picks the most dangerous job. 

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

• The split at the Twins; common sense tells the reader that Roose was given the more dangerous job
• The plan to take Moat Cailin, where Robb assigns the Greatjon with the most dangerous job
• Battle of the Camps, the Blackfish was assigned the most dangerous job, leading the Van
• Battle of Whispering Wood; Robb sends the Blackfish and a few hundred men to harry Jaime into attacking
• Ned at the battle of the Trident does not take the most dangerous job, that is left to Robert who leads the Vanguard. 

Cat is clearly biased towards her son and husband in this regard, only really caring about their safety. She is visably angry that he did not have someone else go to war as she feels he should have stayed at home. 

You think Robb always takes the dangerous jobs than give examples and explain why. 

• You are going against the text. Going by sheer numbers, Robb was given the more dangerous job since he was outnumbered 2 to 1. 
• Robert, by virtue of being king, was the one giving orders at the Trident not Ned. Ned had no command over Robert. 

No, you are putting words in my mouth and overreaching. I said he picked the more dangerous job, and gave Roose the less dangerous one. 

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Jaime's force was holding a siege. This makes them vulnerable from attacks as they are then trapped between the walls of Riverrun and Robb's approaching army. 

And Jaime's force was split into three and thanks to the Blackfish's knowledge of the castle he was born in he knew that Robb would not be facing all of Jaime's force. Riverrun was designed 

If they have sentries and scouts they could potentially sight the Northern army on its way. They could mobilize their forces for an attack. 

That's also taking into account that Robb would also have to split his forces into three with each force being smaller in numbers than the enemy they face. 

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

No. A mounted soldier is more dangerous, more valuable than a soldier on foot. Are you really disputing this?

A mounted rider can easily take on a foot soldier in one-on-one. However, en masse foot soldiers forming a shieldwall can withstand a cavalry charge as was the case in the Battle of Hastings with Harold's infantry holding off the Norman cavalry. History disproves your point. 

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

It actually was not clear. Robb had no idea how many Ironborn were left. 

And yes, Tywin outnumbered Roose. More importantly though he had 7,500 mounted warriors compared to the 600 Robb gave to Roose. 

He knew Ironborn would want to go back to the Iron Islands after Balon died to deal with succession. A token force would be left behind to hold Moat Cailin with no more than few hundred men. The towers at the moat could also hold only a limited number. 

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Not that we know. 

At the battle of the Whispering Wood it was Robb with 6k Northern and Frey mounted warriors and an unknown amount of Mallister and other Riverland soldiers against Jaime's 3k. Robb outnumbered Jaime at the battle of the Whispering Wood more than 2:1

At the battle of the camps there was 12k Lannisters (pretty much all foot) split into three camps, one camp led by Forley Prester was completely cut off the battle due to the design of Riverrun while Robb had 6k Northern and Frey cavalry, an unknown amount of Mallister and other Riverland soldiers as well as the garrison in Riverrun that joined the fight. Robb was not outnumbered here 2:1

That is the fallacy of presentism. Robb made his decision to go to Riverrun before the Blackfish suggested setting a trap for Jaime  by baiting him for a chase. 

They still outnumbered Robb's known forces by a factor of two. The infantry in the middle was able to hold off a cavalry charge led by Robb until a sortie took them from behind. Robb had no idea how many men were left in Riverrun after Jaime's assault. 

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Exactly. He had the Blackfish with him letting him know the designs of Riverrun. He picked the smart, not the dangerous option. He gave the dangerous job to Roose. 

Again, he made his decision to go to Riverrun before the Blackfish arrived. It was still the more dangerous option. 

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

But Robb gave Roose the more dangerous job, the job that was most likely to lose and with no cavalry nor Riverland army allies was more likely to be routed. 

No, it is clearly stated at the point Robb made the decision, he clearly had the more dangerous job. 

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

His failures were both. 

Delegation is a military necessity. Communication is a military necessity. Leaving his capital undefended was a military cock up. Trusting Roose was a military disaster. 

15/16 year old generals are going to make military mistakes, some will get lucky and survive others won't be so lucky and fail. Robb was one of the unlucky ones but don't give me this shit that he made no military mistakes. 

His capital wasn't undefended, or where did Ser Rodrik Cassel get the men to crush the Ironborn at Torrhen's Square? Robb didn't expect Roose to betray him. Even the best of statesmen can't guess what everyone's thinking.  

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Go on then, quote the relevant math from the books. 

And miltary reality seems to be something you are glossing over here as you seem to be ignoring the significant difference between a mounted soldier and one on foot. 

You fail to take into account that battle isn't one-on-one, but multiple fighters fighting in units. Historians agree that disciplined infantry en masse can withstand most cavalry charges. The strength of cavalry relies on momentum once they hit a shield wall, and if they don't break the shieldwall, they can be surrounded by infantry and run through with a pike, pulled off their horse or have their horse killed from under them. 

https://books.google.fi/books?id=nQDBUgwGae4C&pg=PA39&dq=cavalry+effective+misconceptions&hl=en&sa=X&ei=nePJUZfSLeTQiwK8wYDABg&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=cavalry effective misconceptions&f=true

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Yeah it does. 

Robb and Roose had an objective so they both sent their subordinates to face an opponent they could not possibly win and with little to no cavalry were left in a dangerous position of being routed. 

Again, no, Roose was forewarned while Glover wasn't. Tarly wasn't at Duskendale until long after Glover had already arrived. Roose was sent to face Tywin. 

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Then he should have been more cautious and more aware of the situation. Evidence again why he would have been an awful choice to lead at the Green Fork.

It seems as if it doesn't matter that he was set up. He wasn't forewarned about Tarly, and he didn't hear about the Battle of the Blackwater. Roose clearly knew about the latter, and could have sent a message to Glover. He also likely knew the Lannisters would send an army against Glover. The last he likely heard Stannis was marching towards King's Landing, and the city and Lannisters appeared doomed. 

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

How many is heavy?

And he still got his army destroyed, himself took prisoner. 

Due to being set up, and purposeful lack of intel from Roose. Roose, like any commander, would have been expected to send a message to their subordinate telling them that Harrenhal is occupied by the enemy, and what I just mentioned before. 

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Sure it is when you cite a tumblr professor. 

That doesn't demonstrate superiority on your part, just a lack of maturity. How many people have ever been convinced in an argument by being condescended to or insulted? It also makes it harder for people you're debating to take you seriously. He works as an Assistant Professor at City University of New York with a PhD in Public Policy History. You discount an actual historian? 

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

He also asks people to pay for his views. The Starks and Stannis fans are the biggest and most passionate fandoms in the series. An easy way to make money of such people is tell them what they want to hear, makes them feel good about their opinions. 

 

That is what in debate is known as a non sequitur. Doing what other people with popular blogs do counts against him how? His posts are free. Do you have any evidence to back up your claims? Did you extensively go through his tumblrs and wordpress posts?

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

At the battle of the Green Fork? Nonsense. 

Why does he not warn Tywin about Edmure's plans? Why does he allow the Lannister garrison of Harrenhal to be slaughtered?

It is not until much later, after Stannis has been beaten and Robb's marriage does he change sides.

Lord Hornwood was killed, whose lands border Roose's. 

He was simply hedging his bets, and probably waited until the Battle of the Blackwater to completely throw in with Tywin. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

16 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

You fail to take into account that battle isn't one-on-one, but multiple fighters fighting in units. Historians agree that disciplined infantry en masse can withstand most cavalry charges. The strength of cavalry relies on momentum once they hit a shield wall, and if they don't break the shieldwall, they can be surrounded by infantry and run through with a pike, pulled off their horse or have their horse killed from under them. 

https://books.google.fi/books?id=nQDBUgwGae4C&pg=PA39&dq=cavalry+effective+misconceptions&hl=en&sa=X&ei=nePJUZfSLeTQiwK8wYDABg&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=cavalry effective misconceptions&f=true

 

Just because that page wasn't showing up for me, I will toss in another citation from The Art of War in the Western World (great, great book):

https://www.karwansaraypublishers.com/awblog/battlefield-rock-paper-scissors/

Look at the bottom for the diagram with the types of infantry and cavalry. Heavy infantry (eg what Roose has) is perfectly suited to defend against heavy cavalry, but not attack it. Heavy infantry is also vulnerable to attack from light, ranged infantry (eg skirmishers and archers), who are vulnerable to heavy cavalry.

Roose has his heavy infantry attack the cavalry (doh!) and never uses his archers or cavalry to engage the Lannister light infantry (doh!).

[Bernie Mac]

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Look at the bottom for the diagram with the types of infantry and cavalry. Heavy infantry (eg what Roose has)

Roose likely has some heavy infanty, but clearly not all of them are going to be. 

And yet there was sense in what they said. This host her son had assembled was not a standing army such as the Free Cities were accustomed to maintain, nor a force of guardsmen paid in coin. Most of them were smallfolk: crofters, fieldhands, fishermen, sheepherders, the sons of innkeeps and traders and tanners, leavened with a smattering of sellswords and freeriders hungry for plunder. 

 

If you truly think Robb had the more dangerous job than you are going to have to think of better reasons than this. 

Quote

 

is perfectly suited to defend against heavy cavalry,

When they have had the proper training, equipment and experience. This was a rushed together army and then at the Twins it was split, there was little to no time for forward planning. 

Quote

Roose has his heavy infantry attack the cavalry (doh!) and never uses his archers or cavalry to engage the Lannister light infantry (doh!).

Citation? We have no idea if Roose uses his archers. 

 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

Except Robb wasn't purposefully setting Roose up for a disastrous defeat.

And Roose did not have a disasterous defeat. Not one person, either on the Crown's side or Robb's consider it to have been a disaterous defeat. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

 

Roose knew he was going to face Tywin, and how big an army Tywin had. Glover didn't know Tarly was headed for him,

Then that makes Glover an idiot as Duskendale is on Kings Landings doorstep and Glover was well aware that an enormous Royal army was stationed there. 

You are only building the case of just how unsuitable Glover was to lead. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

and that Gregor had taken Harrenhal.

eh? Gregor had not taken Harrenhall at that point, it was after Duskenale that it was taken. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

Roose was forewarned while Glover wasn't.

No. Where are you getting the idea that Glover was not aware of Stannis' defeat and the 80k odd soldiers in the Crownlands?

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

 

Glover had to do with what he had, and he managing to inflict heavy casualties and retreat despite being pinned against the sea means he did an excellent job given the situation. 

He retreated and was routed and subsequently captured. Roose was able to get his army away without it being destroyed and he and the likes of Glover, Tallhart and Harrion Karstark were free unlike Glover's retreat. 

Roose being more cunning and cautious was the right pick for the battle of the Green Fork. Others may have been suitable as well, but what we have witnessed from Glover shows that he would not have been. The Northern army would have suffered even greater casualties. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

No, it doesn't. I said Robb picked the most dangerous job in picking to fight Jaime Lannister not that he always picks the most dangerous job. 

And common sense shows that this is horseshit. Roose had the more dangerous job. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

• You are going against the text. Going by sheer numbers, Robb was given the more dangerous job since he was outnumbered 2 to 1. 

But he was not outnumbered 2:1 Robb has the Riverland forces to ally with, Roose had no such allies. 

We have no idea how many men Robb had as we don't know how many Mallisters and other Riverland troops he picked up on the way to Riverrun and we don't know how many Riverland soldiers were with Tytos Blackwood in Riverrun. Until you can give me those numbers your quotes of 2:1 are meaningless. 

What we do know is that in the battle of Whispering Wood Robb outnumbered Jaime more than 2:1. 

 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

• Robert, by virtue of being king, was the one giving orders at the Trident not Ned. Ned had no command over Robert. 

Robert was not crowned till after the Trident. 

And considering that there was more than likely less Stormland troops with the rebels then Ned and Jon had just as much authority, if not more, than Robert did. 

Robert took the most dangerous job. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

No, you are putting words in my mouth and overreaching. I said he picked the more dangerous job, and gave Roose the less dangerous one. 

Which is clearly not true. Robb picked his best troops for himself and he picked the lesser army, the army that was already in battle with another force. Even if events went tits up for Robb, with more than double the cavalry that Jaime had he was in a safe position to retreat without fear of rout, Roose was incredibly vulnerable to this. 

You can abandon logic all you want, but Roose had the more dangerous job of the two. And in Robb's own host the Blackfish had the more dangerous job of the two. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

If they have sentries and scouts they could potentially sight the Northern army on its way. They could mobilize their forces for an attack. 

Exactly. That is why Robb needed Roose to engage with Tywin. 

Again, none of what you are saying proves that Robb's job was more dangerous, all you are making the case for is that there was dangers in Robb's mission which is something that no one has ever denied. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

That's also taking into account that Robb would also have to split his forces into three with each force being smaller in numbers than the enemy they face. 

Citation?

Robb did not have to split his force into three as Prester on the other bank was not an issue. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

A mounted rider can easily take on a foot soldier in one-on-one. However, en masse foot soldiers forming a shieldwall can withstand a cavalry charge as was the case in the Battle of Hastings with Harold's infantry holding off the Norman cavalry. History disproves your point. 

No, there are examples of infantry being able to withstand, not that it was the norm. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

He knew Ironborn would want to go back to the Iron Islands after Balon died to deal with succession. A token force would be left behind to hold Moat Cailin with no more than few hundred men. The towers at the moat could also hold only a limited number. 

First of all he planned on attacking Moat Cailin even before he heard of Balon's death, so I have no idea what point you are trying to make. 

Second of all he does not know there would only be a few hundred men.  He, wrongly, thinks that the majority of the Garrison would be left behind

"No," Robb admitted. "Victarion will leave the best part of his garrison, I'd guess. Every man he takes will be one less man we need to fight, however. And he will take many of his captains, count on that. The leaders. He will need such men to speak for him if he hopes to sit the Seastone Chair."

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

That is the fallacy of presentism. Robb made his decision to go to Riverrun before the Blackfish suggested setting a trap for Jaime  by baiting him for a chase. 

No. They might not have known that Jaime would abandon all logic and come out but there more than likely was a plan to draw out part of the army and take them out piecemeal. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

They still outnumbered Robb's known forces by a factor of two.

Only if you discount the Riverland soldiers who joined Robb in the battle of the Camps. And I am not sure why you are?

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

The infantry in the middle was able to hold off a cavalry charge led by Robb until a sortie took them from behind. Robb had no idea how many men were left in Riverrun after Jaime's assault. 

He would have had a pretty well educated guess considering how well informed the Blackfish was at the Twins. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

Again, he made his decision to go to Riverrun before the Blackfish arrived. It was still the more dangerous option. 

No, it was not. 

Tywin not only had 20k soldiers but also 7.5k cavalry and was not engaged against an enemy. 

 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

No, it is clearly stated at the point Robb made the decision, he clearly had the more dangerous job. 

By his mother! 

POV bias, ever heard of it?

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

His capital wasn't undefended,

His capital was undefended. This is something that is confirmed in the chapters after Robb has left Winterfell without a real garrison

The oldest were men grown, seventeen and eighteen years from the day of their naming. One was past twenty. Most were younger, sixteen or less.

Bran watched them from the balcony of Maester Luwin's turret, listening to them grunt and strain and curse as they swung their staves and wooden swords...

...Ser Rodrik has the truth of it, we need men to walk the walls. Your lord father took the cream of his guard to King's Landing, and your brother took the rest, along with all the likely lads for leagues around. 

 

Robb left Wintefell exposed. Him and Theon made rookie mistakes, either thinking the war would not last long or not truly understanding the consequences of their actions, this is to be expected of young men thrust into the position but to claim he made no military mistakes is just plain wrong. Every single commander in the war of the five kings made, at one point, a military mistake. The idea that the 16 year old Robb was the only one who did not is just bizarre. 

 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

 

or where did Ser Rodrik Cassel get the men to crush the Ironborn at Torrhen's Square?

Well first of all lets remember that it was Cat who sent Rodrik home, Robb had left Pycelle and Bran in charge with no military leader. 

Rodrik had to train boys to become soldiers. He managed to raise 600 from the Winterfell lands and their surrounding holdfasts. These inexperienced boys were enough to deal with a few dozen Ironborn at Torrhen's Square, nothing more. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

 

Robb didn't expect Roose to betray him. Even the best of statesmen can't guess what everyone's thinking.  

You claimed that Robb made no  military mistakes while also claiming that Roose failed against Tywin and took too many losses. These claims contradict each other.  Robb allowing someone to lead the entire Norrthern host for more than half a year after the battle of Green Fork is a military mistake. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

You fail to take into account that battle isn't one-on-one, but multiple fighters fighting in units. Historians agree that disciplined infantry en masse can withstand most cavalry charges.

They don't think it is the norm though. The advantage in this scenario is with the organised cavalry. I hae no idea how this is even a debate. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

 

Again, no, Roose was forewarned while Glover wasn't. Tarly wasn't at Duskendale until long after Glover had already arrived. Roose was sent to face Tywin. 

Again Glover has a map, he knows were Kings Landing was and he knew that the Royal army, having just defeated Stannis was in the Crownlands. 

Glover would have to be an idiot of epic proportions to not realise this. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

It seems as if it doesn't matter that he was set up. He wasn't forewarned about Tarly, and he didn't hear about the Battle of the Blackwater.

eh? Of course he knew about the Battle of Blackwater. The servants at Harrenhal knew about it, Cat, under house arrest knew about it, of course Glover knew about it. What a bizarre claim. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

 

Roose clearly knew about the latter, and could have sent a message to Glover. He also likely knew the Lannisters would send an army against Glover. The last he likely heard Stannis was marching towards King's Landing, and the city and Lannisters appeared doomed. 

Except everyone knew at the start of the Arya chapter that Stannis had been defeated. Arya sees the reaction from the cleaners to the soldiers, it is not some secret. Much later in the chapter Roose decides upon Duskenddale. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

Due to being set up, and purposeful lack of intel from Roose. Roose, like any commander, would have been expected to send a message to their subordinate telling them that Harrenhal is occupied by the enemy, and what I just mentioned before. 

Harrnahla was not occupied by the enemy. Roose was at Harrenhal when he gave the order for Dusekdale. I think you are confusing something here. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

That doesn't demonstrate superiority on your part, just a lack of maturity.

Sure. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

How many people have ever been convinced in an argument by being condescended to or insulted? It also makes it harder for people you're debating to take you seriously. He works as an Assistant Professor at City University of New York with a PhD in Public Policy History. You discount an actual historian? 

Yes, this is not real history and he regularly ignores the text to make assumptions, assumptions that people pay him money for. 

I'm sorry if this is new to you, but sometimes qualified people will tell people what they want to hear if there is a financial reward for them and he has been very open about wanting financial rewards for his opinions on another man's fictional work. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

That is what in debate is known as a non sequitur. Doing what other people with popular blogs do counts against him how? His posts are free. Do you have any evidence to back up your claims? Did you extensively go through his tumblrs and wordpress posts?

I'm not the one citing other people's blogs as evidence, am I? I don't judge him any differently than I judge any other popular bloggists. He is right up there with Preston Jacobs, entertaining, sometimes informative but also someone who has tried to sell his essays on GRRM's work as a book and the more populist he is the more money he generates in ad revenue. 

 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

Lord Hornwood was killed, whose lands border Roose's. 

Which is evidence of what? Lord Hornwoood's son was killed in the battle of the Whispering Wood. Did Robb want him out of the way as well? 

Many Frey's were captured, was Roose after their lands as well?

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

He was simply hedging his bets,

That is not a betrayal. As GRRM points out, victory would have been great for Roose, there is no reason if victory was possible that Roose would refuse to take it unless there was a risk to him and the majority of his army. 

18 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

 

and probably waited until the Battle of the Blackwater to completely throw in with Tywin. 

That would require him knowing that Ned would be executed, that Joffrey and Tommen were bastards, that Renly and Stannis would rebel and that Renly would be killed and the Tyrells eventually joining the Crown, it would also require him knowing that Robb would win (and considering your argument that Robb took the more dangerous job and Roose has just got beaten), that Robb would refuse to ally with either Stannis or Renly. 

 

[Kandrax]

One advice for all of you. Don't use Charles Osman when you are talking about medieval warfare.