Strange Thing About the Twins

[Back door hodor]

Agreed....and there are a couple other geographic oddities as well, for example, if one looks at a map of the reach, it would make more sense for oldtown to be at the mouth of the mander, which has it's head in the heart of the reach, than the honeywine.(we are given an in universe reason for this one though, oldtown was built around a pre existing fortification on the battle isle). Gulltown also seems llike it would be better situated on the south side of the vale, to take advantage of trade coming from the trident, but maybe that one is just me.

[Rondo]

On 3/5/2018 at 5:05 PM, John Suburbs said:

 

Interesting question.  We don't know the volume of trade traffic in quantifiable terms but even a small percentage is significant if the total volume of trade is large.  The volume of goods passing over through The Twins may be a small percentage of the total but if the total is a large enough number that small percentage is enough to make the Freys very rich.  A smart business doesn't just rely on one cash cow.  The Twins generate income from rich farm lands and fishing.  Goods are taxed crossing the bridge.  If the Freys are smart, which they are, they will also tax goods passing beneath the bridge. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

No, the first one seems to be correct. You are clearly grasping at straws. 

To you

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

Are you under the impression that rapists and murderers are usually in command of the Night's Watch? 

None of the three Lord Commander's that Bowen has served have been murderers or rapists (at least as far as we know). 

Is your understanding of the series that to have connections to the Nights Watch a noble must have to know every person there? I'm sorry to say but this is a poorly thought out point. 

No I was lightly mocking your connections theory. It's called humor (or sarcasm). 

[House Beaudreau]

On 3/5/2018 at 3:05 PM, John Suburbs said:

Looking at the map, it really doesn't seem all that strategic to me. We're told that House Frey has grown into one of the most powerful Tully bannermen by exacting tolls across the river, But aside from a relatively unique circumstance like the King of the North needed to cross in order to launch a sneak attack at Riverrun, I don't see why many people would feel the need to cross there.

Let's say you're a trader heading north on the Kingsroad. The Twins give you easier access to Seaguard, but that's about it. There's nothing of note north of there that wouldn't be easier to reach just sticking to the Kings Road past Moat Cailen. If you're coming south, I'm sure there are small roads leading to RR, but if the tolls are exorbitant, it would probably make more sense to head to KL or to the Eyrie. The only possibility I see is if someone wanted to cut from the Bite to Seaguard and then take ship to the wealthy areas in the westerlands and the Reach, but this means you are taking your chances past the Iron Isles, and if this were the case then surely there would be a thriving seaport on the western edge of the Bite.

From a military standpoint, the prospects are equally sketchy. The Twins are only about 600 years old, long after seven great houses had established their domains. So it's not like there are numerous northern kingdoms, river lords, western houses, etc., all warring against each other having to cross the Green Fork. So a Stark host wanting to attack Riverrun would want to cross, but the Freys are not likely to still be bannermen to Riverrun if they charged tolls in this situation to let the enemy cross. By the same token, a Stark king in alliance with a Tully would work, but then the Freys wouldn't be expected to charge a huge toll to allow friendly forces to cross. True, Walder got a marriage pact from Robb, but I don't see any Frey brides for Starks prior to this. **Side note: I wonder if Ned crossed at the Twins? He hooked up with Arryn and Tully and then relieved Rob at the Stony Sept, but did Ned have to go to the Twins first, or just follow the Kingsroad across the Trident (I'm assuming there is a bridge here) and then west into the Riverlands?** In any event, these situations don't happen all that often, and for the 280-odd years before Robert's Rebellion they didn't happen at all.

So how do the Twins generate such a vast income for the Freys that they become one of the top bannermen to Riverrun?

Its strategic because of the Green Fork. When it rains it is the only crossing within a hundred leagues or something close to that.

• Every Farmer, Trader, Hedge knight etc. on either side of the River would have to pass through the Twins for Trade, Tourneys and markets. 
• Everything produced from Fairmarket to Seagard would pass through the Twins to get to the King's road to make it south. 
• Everything produced from the Flints fingers, Flint Cliffs and Cape Kraken lands would pass through the Twins because the neck is near impossible to cross, especially for a wagon train.
• During a hard winter, Lords and Smallfolk as far as Riverrun would use the Twins rather than cross somewhere less safe, just to get to the King's road
• For anyone Going South from Seagard or so would have to avoid multiple rivers and pay more in tolls at ferries than paying one large fee to cross at the Twins. 

the Strangest Aspect about the Twins is that it seems to be the only bridge that you can cross the Green Fork on. No one else seems to have the power to make another crossing. 

[Bernie Mac]

1 hour ago, House Beaudreau said:

 

the Strangest Aspect about the Twins is that it seems to be the only bridge that you can cross the Green Fork on. No one else seems to have the power to make another crossing. 

Likely because a fair bit of that land is ruled by the Freys, and/or possibly their vassals the Charltons and/or close allies the Vyprens. There is actually a limited amount of space to reach the central Riverlands/Westerlands from the Green fork without having to cross the Blue fork. 

Possibly also because building,  maintaining and defending a bridge is quite expensive and with a pretty significant one already built it might seem a waste of resources. 

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

It gives them wealth in times when every other lord is losing wealth. And it is pretty much a trade, the nobility look down on merchants and traders. This is the reason why it is disrepected. 

The problem with the winter trade idea is that nothing is being grown in the winter and, unless you are a total hoarder like Littlefinger, people are living off their own stores rather than sell them to others. Plus, overland travel is more difficult in the winter, so revenue from the bridge would diminish as well.

I think what you are saying is valid for the first 300 or 400 years of House Frey. But once the dragons united the 7K and built the kingsroad, income from the crossing diminished. So, like the Dornish spears and (some say) Lannister gold, Frey wealth is something of a chimera.

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, Tour De Force said:

Interesting question.  We don't know the volume of trade traffic in quantifiable terms but even a small percentage is significant if the total volume of trade is large.  The volume of goods passing over through The Twins may be a small percentage of the total but if the total is a large enough number that small percentage is enough to make the Freys very rich.  A smart business doesn't just rely on one cash cow.  The Twins generate income from rich farm lands and fishing.  Goods are taxed crossing the bridge.  If the Freys are smart, which they are, they will also tax goods passing beneath the bridge. 

Sure, but if the bulk of trade and traffic is now moving along the kingsroad, there isn't as much of a reason for people on one side of the Green Fork to trade on the other. And there is little reason for goods from another realm, say the Reach, to use the Crossing to get the north, since the would have to cross at least three major rivers to get there. So at best, the Crossing generates income from the local traffic, which is just a way of redistributing the wealth already in the region, not bringing new wealth in.

As I said above, it looks to me like the crossing may at one time have been rather lucrative for the Freys, but political union among the 7K and the construction of the kingsroad pretty much killed it off. So the Freys are not likely to be nearly as wealthy as people think they are.

[Stormking902]

On 06/03/2018 at 10:29 AM, Free Northman Reborn said:

I suspect the "strength" of the fortress relies to a significant extent on the fact that it is on both sides of the river, and can therefore be resupplied from either side. It has been described in some detail that besieging the Twins is very difficult because you would need armies on both sides of the river to starve them out. And even then they can arguably be resupplied from the river I would guess. Meaning you might even need a fleet anchored in the river to block that entry route too.

So it is more the dual nature of the keep that makes it so strong, rather than its pure size and fortifications.

Bingo

[John Suburbs]

12 hours ago, House Beaudreau said:

Its strategic because of the Green Fork. When it rains it is the only crossing within a hundred leagues or something close to that.

• Every Farmer, Trader, Hedge knight etc. on either side of the River would have to pass through the Twins for Trade, Tourneys and markets. 
• Everything produced from Fairmarket to Seagard would pass through the Twins to get to the King's road to make it south. 
• Everything produced from the Flints fingers, Flint Cliffs and Cape Kraken lands would pass through the Twins because the neck is near impossible to cross, especially for a wagon train.
• During a hard winter, Lords and Smallfolk as far as Riverrun would use the Twins rather than cross somewhere less safe, just to get to the King's road
• For anyone Going South from Seagard or so would have to avoid multiple rivers and pay more in tolls at ferries than paying one large fee to cross at the Twins. 

the Strangest Aspect about the Twins is that it seems to be the only bridge that you can cross the Green Fork on. No one else seems to have the power to make another crossing. 

But you don't add wealth by simply redistributing the income from your own vassals and smallfolk; you do it by bringing wealth in from other regions, and there no longer seems to be a compelling reason for goods from say, the Reach or even much of the westerlands or riverlands to cross there. Most sensible people would simply float their produce downriver to the crossroads or Saltpans -- it's much quicker and cheaper.

And it doesn't appear that Seagard is much of a trading port, it's more of a defensive fort. So in the days before the dragons, and probably since, you takes your chances trying to get goods through Ironmen's Bay.

Is there a lot of travel during a hard winter? It's not the north, but it would seem that few people would venture very far in harsh conditions.

So my take is that while the Freys may have once enjoyed a sizeable income from the Crossing, that all ended with the union of the 7K and the building of the kingsroad. Like the Dornish spears and, perhaps, Lannister gold, it's more myth than reality.

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, Back door hodor said:

Agreed....and there are a couple other geographic oddities as well, for example, if one looks at a map of the reach, it would make more sense for oldtown to be at the mouth of the mander, which has it's head in the heart of the reach, than the honeywine.(we are given an in universe reason for this one though, oldtown was built around a pre existing fortification on the battle isle). Gulltown also seems llike it would be better situated on the south side of the vale, to take advantage of trade coming from the trident, but maybe that one is just me.

Yeah, it seems Oldtown was built as a strategic location to prey off shipping in the Redwyne Straits rather than take advantage of lands upriver.

And Gulltown might have to do with favorable terrain or friendly tides. It also provides easy access to that part of the Vale while Wickendon and Saltpans would serve the southern edge.

[Kandrax]

Walder Frey made a pact with Lord of Seven hells.

[The Mother of The Others]

A lot of wealthy perverts live along the river area in my county.   Stripclub owners.   Speedboat havers.    Luxuriators.   Let's use that as the foundation of all that follows:  

What if the bridge is sort of dumb!  (If you try to justify it based on long distance traffic, because there's not a super bunch of that.)    But what if there have always been hamlets and knightly retirement villas along the riverfront.  Niches of fairly well off folk who would benefit from the bridge giving them access to twice the amount of shopping venues and regional haggling opportunities, opening the area up for the locals' convenience and creating a growth spurt in construction and new residents who are tired of the stench of KL.  And once you find a decent cabinet on the other side of the river you don't want to risk the water getting to it, so you pay the freys or turn aside as your most attractive daughter or son takes care of the toll.

[House Beaudreau]

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

But you don't add wealth by simply redistributing the income from your own vassals and smallfolk;

That is exactly how you Generate wealth as a lord. Your vassals produce goods and you collect taxes paid with coin and goods. Smallfolk take excess goods and sell at market towns and to passing traders for coin. 

For example: Say you have a grain producing vassal on Malister lands and he's ready to go to harvest, first a portion of that harvest is going straight to the Malisters as tax because it was produced on their lands. With the remainder of the harvest the vassal will be storing some for himself, and the excess will ideally be sold for coin in a Market town, city, or to a passing trader for coin, because not only to you pay taxes with goods produced on Malister lands, monthly or quarterly or yearly you will also be paying a tax in coin for living on Malister land. The lords are collecting goods and coin from their vassals so that they can pay their taxes to the lord Paramount. 

So with this same example, lets say that the Seagard market is flooded with wheat and you might not get a great price there, The Green Fork is running high. You're a farmer and not willing to risk you harvest floating down the river. You would go up to the Twins, pay the toll and wagon the rest of your goods to the Crossroads, or Salt Pans etc. 

Or lets say we are nearing autumn and you feel like you can get a far better price for your grain in the North, you would be paying a toll to cross at the Twins. 

Almost all  of the goods produce on The Cape Kraken peninsula are passing through the twins when they make their way North, crossing over land, forest and the Bogs of the neck is not feasible with a wagon or wagons. 

There is a lot of People and goods passing through the Twins, especially when the river is raging, which seems to be like once a month or so.      

- 

      

[House Beaudreau]

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

And it doesn't appear that Seagard is much of a trading port, it's more of a defensive fort. So in the days before the dragons, and probably since, you takes your chances trying to get goods through Ironmen's Bay

It not a major port but there would still be goods coming in and out, and stuff that passes through Seagard there is a pretty good chance its going to pass through the Twins too. 

and as far as the Ironmen, the old way is dead, its been dead since Aegon the Conqueror. Almost all of the excess Ore and good produced in the Iron Island is gonna go through seagard, and then the Twins to get to King's Landing, Vale, etc.

GRRM didn't just throw the Freys and the Crossing in the story without thinking about how Strategic their location would be and is.    

[House Beaudreau]

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Likely because a fair bit of that land is ruled by the Freys, and/or possibly their vassals the Charltons and/or close allies the Vyprens. There is actually a limited amount of space to reach the central Riverlands/Westerlands from the Green fork without having to cross the Blue fork. 

Possibly also because building,  maintaining and defending a bridge is quite expensive and with a pretty significant one already built it might seem a waste of resources. 

Agreed, the Twins are also built on the narrowest point in the river. I have just always wondered if Frey landed knight's main job is to stop "illegal crossing of the Green Fork. 

[House Beaudreau]

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Most sensible people would simply float their produce downriver to the crossroads or Saltpans -- it's much quicker and cheaper.

I don't think this is what sensible people would do. The Green Fork is not a gentle river, more people don't know how to swim than do know how, and Crossing on a ferry cost coin also, is less safe than a bridge and if that ferry is on Frey land, that money is basically going to the Frey's anyway in Tax

[Corvo the Crow]

It occured to me that Riverlands has not one but two port towns located at the mouth of the same river, Saltpans and Maidenpool.

So there is enough trade to support two port towns

[Free Northman Reborn]

22 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

It occured to me that Riverlands has not one but two port towns located at the mouth of the same river, Saltpans and Maidenpool.

So there is enough trade to support two port towns

I believe it was stated somewhere - maybe in the world of Ice and Fire - that places like Maidenpool and Saltpans were more prominent in the past, but were negatively impacted by the founding and growth of King's Landing, which diverted a lot of trade to a new port. Not sure if I remember that correctly, though.

 

[Bernie Mac]

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The problem with the winter trade idea is that nothing is being grown in the winter and, unless you are a total hoarder like Littlefinger, people are living off their own stores rather than sell them to others.

Littlefinger thinks like a merchant, not a noble. The merchants would be buying up excess stocks and hoarding them for precisely this reason. 

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Plus, overland travel is more difficult in the winter, so revenue from the bridge would diminish as well.

I'm not sure that is true? Winter has hit the North in ADWD and we are being told that 

The ships I sent to take off Mother Mole and her people have been wracked by storms. We must send what help we can by land or let them die."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"If is a word for fools. We have had no word from Davos. It may be he never reached White Harbor. Arnolf Karstark writes that the storms have been fierce upon the narrow sea.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Braavosi captains will only take women, children on their ships. Witch women call us slavers. Attempt to take Storm Crow defeated, six crew dead, many wildlings. Eight ravens left. Dead things in the water. Send help by land, seas wracked by storms.

Sea travel in Winter may well be more dangerous and risky than land travel in Winter (providing you take roads and not travel through forests like Stannis). 

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I think what you are saying is valid for the first 300 or 400 years of House Frey.

I'd say the opposite. Peace between the Kingdoms will have increased trade between them. The Frey's will have seen more trade through their bridge because of it. 

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 

But once the dragons united the 7K and built the kingsroad, income from the crossing diminished. So, like the Dornish spears and (some say) Lannister gold, Frey wealth is something of a chimera.

Except it is not. Roose's dowry for Walda should be clear that it is not, or the expense of sons as knights

"Sunderland would require me to hand you over if he knew of you." Borrell did fealty for Sweetsister, as Longthorpe did for Longsister and Torrent for Littlesister; all were sworn to Triston Sunderland, the Lord of the Three Sisters. "He'd sell you to the queen for a pot of that Lannister gold. Poor man needs every dragon, with seven sons all determined to be knights."

  nor would the author pointing out the Frey's wealth in the Appendix. 

Powerful, wealthy, and numerous, the Freys are bannermen to House Tully, their swords sworn to the service of Riverrun, but they have not always been diligent in performing their duty.

You can argue that the wealth is not all from the crossing but the idea that the Freys are not wealthy makes little sense. Why would the author deliberately mislead the readers over something as trivial as that? 

They have been seen as being wealthy at least since the Dance of the Dragons, what is in it for the Frey's to do so? They'd be expected to pay higher taxes to both King and Lord, would expect to pay out higher dowries and would be a target for others because of their wealth. 

 

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sure, but if the bulk of trade and traffic is now moving along the kingsroad, there isn't as much of a reason for people on one side of the Green Fork to trade on the other.

Have a look at the Green Fork. It is far easier for the people who reside in parts of the Westerlands and the lands ruled by the Tully's, Brackens, Blacwoods, Pipers etc.  That is a huge amount of trade. 

The reason merchants would choose to go through the Twins rather than spend weeks going the other direction is time. 

And look at this logically, either a notable amount of trade happens or the Frey's are going around bragging about how much merchants they get through their lands and everyone else believes it. Are the other Riverlords not going to wonder why they never see these merchants travel through their lands? 

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 

And there is little reason for goods from another realm, say the Reach, to use the Crossing to get the north, since the would have to cross at least three major rivers to get there.

I agree with that, at least most of the time (there will be variables for when it does make sense) but we are talking about medieval countries here. Three medieval countries using that route is going to make the Frey's very rich even it is only a fraction of their merchants.  

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So at best, the Crossing generates income from the local traffic, which is just a way of redistributing the wealth already in the region, not bringing new wealth in.

Clearly that is not the case. At the very least it would involve other merchants from the lands of other Riverlords southwest to them as well as the Northern Westerland lands. 

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

As I said above, it looks to me like the crossing may at one time have been rather lucrative for the Freys, but political union among the 7K and the construction of the kingsroad pretty much killed it off. So the Freys are not likely to be nearly as wealthy as people think they are.

It is not people, it is the author who has claimed they are. 

 

 

[Corvo the Crow]

11 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I believe it was stated somewhere - maybe in the world of Ice and Fire - that places like Maidenpool and Saltpans were more prominent in the past, but were negatively impacted by the founding and growth of King's Landing, which diverted a lot of trade to a new port. Not sure if I remember that correctly, though.

 

I remember it being the case for Duskendale but not sure about the others.