Strange Thing About the Twins

[Bernie Mac]

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Wealth equals power, and power is a shadow. If people were to realize that the Freys are not as wealthy as they pretend to be, then they lose status and influence in the realm. Old Walder is very prickly when it comes to people looking down on his house. He would gladly pay a little extra to Riverrun if it maintains the illusion of wealth and power.

It is not a little extra though, it is three centuries of overpaying on taxes, paying out more for dowries, expecting to raise and arm larger armies. This is a significant amount of money and it does not benefit them, they are looked down on for having the bridge, even commoners from Kings Landing see it as a means to belittle the Freys

"His wealth is all from cows," said Maynard Plumm. "He ought to take a swollen udder for his arms. These Butterwells have milk running in their veins, and the Freys are no better. This will be a marriage of cattle thieves and toll collectors, one lot of coin clinkers joining with another."

If it was about reputation the Freys would not charge or even operate the bridge. It should also be noted that not once in the series or the other works were the Freys have been mentioned had it been the Freys who have boasted about their wealth. It has always been others and mostly it has been a way to look down on them. 

Plus Lords living beyond their means is pretty dangerous, we only have to look at the Westerlings who have had to sell of lands they could not afford. 

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

We never get a good description of Walder's great hall, but no one seems to notice the richness of the décor or the fineness of their dress.

So why does Cat not think something is afoot? Why do the many people who have visited the Twins in the last three centuries comment on their lack of riches?

We know from Ned how expensive it was House Stark having the King come to stay, this has happened multiple times in Walder's rule

"Now my bastards presume to teach me courtesy," Lord Walder complained. "I'll speak any way I like, damn you. I've had three kings to guest in my life, and queens as well, do you think I require lessons from the likes of you, Ryger?

And of course Cat is not focusing on the richness of the decor, she has more pressing concerns on her mind. She also does not notice any tapestries in Riverrun or the Eyrie.  https://asearchoficeandfire.com/?q=tapestries&povs[]=Catelyn

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Catelyn notices that her own chambers are richly appointed, which surprises her because she expected some spite from Walder. Later, the Red Wedding fare is described as meager, although there is plenty of alcohol.

This really surprise you? Do you think this is because the Freys are strapped for cash or the catering to the red wedding was an afterthought? 

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So, no, there is no evidence that the Freys are not wealthy -- I'm sure they get plenty of income from their lands and, yes, the crossing -- but neither is there evidence that that are substantially wealthier than other houses that take a cut of the trade passing through their borders.

Yes, there is plenty of evidence that their wealth is notable. The Freys are one of the few Houses in the series singled out for their wealth. 

"Powerful, wealthy, and numerous, the Freys are bannermen to House Tully, their swords sworn to the service of Riverrun, but they have not always been diligent in performing their duty." - A Clash of Kings appendix

The Freys were not an old house. They had risen to prominence some six hundred years ago, their line originating from a petty lord who raised a rickety wooden bridge across the narrowest part of the Green Fork. But as their wealth and influence grew, so did the Crossing. And soon the castle grew from a single tower that overlooked the bridge to two formidable towers that bracketed the river between them. These two keeps, now called the Twins, are amongst the strongest in the realm. - The World Book

The Green Fork ran swift and deep here, but the Freys had spanned it many centuries past and grown rich off the coin men paid them to cross. - Cat

There are also other signs of the Freys wealth, Walder's dowrie, the cost of knighthood, the cost of the many wardships, Symond being able to bribe so many at the rich White Harbor, the multiple visits by dignitary, many of his sons and grandsons being regular's at tourneys, the cost of the ransoms paid out to the Crown and willing to pay out to the BWB. 

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 

And looking at the map I fail to see why anyone outside of the immediate area of the crossing would bother to use it, nor is there any reason to think the goods being moved are all that valuable.

The people who live and inhabit this world, who have greater understanding of the geography and the merchant routes than you or I have came to the conclusion that the Freys are wealthier than most of their peers in the Riverlands and they have stated that it is primarily down to the bridge.  They have more information on the subject that you do, this is a case of Occam's razor. 

 

And of course to what end do you imagine GRRM has done this? When will this great reveal be shown, what effect on the story will it have?

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

It is not a little extra though, it is three centuries of overpaying on taxes, paying out more for dowries, expecting to raise and arm larger armies. This is a significant amount of money and it does not benefit them, they are looked down on for having the bridge, even commoners from Kings Landing see it as a means to belittle the Freys

"His wealth is all from cows," said Maynard Plumm. "He ought to take a swollen udder for his arms. These Butterwells have milk running in their veins, and the Freys are no better. This will be a marriage of cattle thieves and toll collectors, one lot of coin clinkers joining with another."

If it was about reputation the Freys would not charge or even operate the bridge. It should also be noted that not once in the series or the other works were the Freys have been mentioned had it been the Freys who have boasted about their wealth. It has always been others and mostly it has been a way to look down on them. 

Plus Lords living beyond their means is pretty dangerous, we only have to look at the Westerlings who have had to sell of lands they could not afford. 

 

Yes, interesting that the Freys never flaunt their wealth, nor do they discuss it. They seem quite content to let others believe what they will.

As I said, though, the crossing probably brought significant income to House Frey at one time, but the Conquest and the kingsroad put an end to that, so it's not like the Freys could simply dismantle their bridge, since that would diminish their standing in the realm even more. If Hoster Tully has watchers on the bridge to verify what tolls are being collected, then he will have an honest accounting of what the incomes are. If not, he has to accept the word of Walder. Either way, the taxes going to Riverrun will not be overly burdensome to the Freys, and Hoster has just as much reason to maintain the illusion of Frey wealth and power as Walder.

The Freys do not seem to be living beyond their means. I don't see any ostentatious displays of wealth, nor does it appear that Walder is an overly generous man. Maybe he's just a tightwad, or maybe be doesn't have any greater stores of wealth than any other lord with his holdings.

17 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

So why does Cat not think something is afoot? Why do the many people who have visited the Twins in the last three centuries comment on their lack of riches?

We know from Ned how expensive it was House Stark having the King come to stay, this has happened multiple times in Walder's rule

"Now my bastards presume to teach me courtesy," Lord Walder complained. "I'll speak any way I like, damn you. I've had three kings to guest in my life, and queens as well, do you think I require lessons from the likes of you, Ryger?

And of course Cat is not focusing on the richness of the decor, she has more pressing concerns on her mind. She also does not notice any tapestries in Riverrun or the Eyrie.  https://asearchoficeandfire.com/?q=tapestries&povs[]=Catelyn

 

All true, but if the Freys are so incredibly rich from their bridge, it seems likely there would be some sign of it, like in the Merman's Court:

Quote

Davos II, Dod

Two marble mermen flanked his lordship's court...

Its walls and floor and ceiling were made of wooden planks notched cunningly together and decorated with all the creatures of the sea. As they approached the dais, Davos trod on painted crabs and clams and starfish, half-hidden amongst the twisting black fronds of seaweed and the bones of drowned sailors. On the walls to either side, pale sharks prowled painted blue-green depths, whilst eels and octopods slithered amongst the rocks and sunken ships. Shoals of herring and great codfish swam between the tall arched windows. Higher up, near where the old fishing nets drooped down from the rafters, the surface of the sea had been depicted. To his right a war galley stroked serene against the rising sun; to his left, a battered old cog raced before a storm, her sails in rags. Behind the dais a kraken and grey leviathan were locked in battle beneath the painted waves.

At the same time, we see Wayman himself dressed in satin and velvet of fine colors, embroidered gold thread, an ermine mantle with a gold trident clasp... I never noticed before, but Walder is one of the few characters whose clothes are never described, which might mean they are nothing exceptional. I think there is one scene where he has an ermine robe across his legs.

Meanwhile, out in White Harbor, we see a new jetty being built, half-a-mile long with towers and battlements, restoration of the Seal Rock ringfort, war galleys, a clean, orderly city, marble fountain statues and other evidence of the largess that comes from sitting on a key trade route. But despite this, nobody talks about Wyman Manderly being the wealthiest and most powerful of Winterfell's bannermen.

Catelyn grew up in Riverrun, so it's no surprise that she does not remark on its décor, while in the Eyrie, she does notice the blue-veined marble and the statuary in the garden. And from others, we see that it has a throne of carved weirwood, silver sconces and other expensive finery. Walder's chair is made of black oak, which, in our world, is fairly common, found everywhere from Maine to Texas and up into Canada -- nowhere nearly as valuable as weirwood. 

Again, I'm not arguing that the Freys are not wealthy enough to host a king or field an army, but that the source of their wealth is no longer the crossing. The changing politics of the realm has diminished its importance for both commercial and military purposes.

17 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

This really surprise you? Do you think this is because the Freys are strapped for cash or the catering to the red wedding was an afterthought? 

It surprises her because she thought Walder would put her in something less grand out of spite.

And again, you seem to be under the mistaken impression that I think the Freys are strapped for cash. I have said nothing of the sort. I'm just saying that the crossing is no longer a significant source of their wealth.

17 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Yes, there is plenty of evidence that their wealth is notable. The Freys are one of the few Houses in the series singled out for their wealth. 

"Powerful, wealthy, and numerous, the Freys are bannermen to House Tully, their swords sworn to the service of Riverrun, but they have not always been diligent in performing their duty." - A Clash of Kings appendix

The Freys were not an old house. They had risen to prominence some six hundred years ago, their line originating from a petty lord who raised a rickety wooden bridge across the narrowest part of the Green Fork. But as their wealth and influence grew, so did the Crossing. And soon the castle grew from a single tower that overlooked the bridge to two formidable towers that bracketed the river between them. These two keeps, now called the Twins, are amongst the strongest in the realm. - The World Book

The Green Fork ran swift and deep here, but the Freys had spanned it many centuries past and grown rich off the coin men paid them to cross. - Cat

There are also other signs of the Freys wealth, Walder's dowrie, the cost of knighthood, the cost of the many wardships, Symond being able to bribe so many at the rich White Harbor, the multiple visits by dignitary, many of his sons and grandsons being regular's at tourneys, the cost of the ransoms paid out to the Crown and willing to pay out to the BWB. 

The people who live and inhabit this world, who have greater understanding of the geography and the merchant routes than you or I have came to the conclusion that the Freys are wealthier than most of their peers in the Riverlands and they have stated that it is primarily down to the bridge.  They have more information on the subject that you do, this is a case of Occam's razor. 

 

And of course to what end do you imagine GRRM has done this? When will this great reveal be shown, what effect on the story will it have?

Sure, all of these quotes are from people who believe that Frey wealth comes from their bridge. But these are simply the stories that have taken hold over the years, which originated in the days before there was a kingsroad and there were multiple petty kings all eager to cross the Green Fork to make war on one another. Those days are over. So given the fact that the bulk of the cross-realm trade is now following the kingsroad and that it has only been necessary for a military force to cross the bridge once (maybe twice) in the last 300 years, we can make the logical conclusion that the crossing is not nearly as lucrative as it once was.

Symond bribed two knights and a couple of servants. Roose received Walda's (I assume you meant Walda, not Walder) weight in silver. I don't recall anything about the Freys building warships. They're pretty far inland. They would need a port to build warships.

The people who live and inhabit this world have also come to the conclusion that Sunspear can field 50,000 spears and that the Lannisters are sitting on a veritable mountain of gold -- the first is clearly untrue, the second may be as well.

I'm not saying there needs to be any reveal or that it will affect the story in any principal way. I'm just saying that the crossing's lack of military relevance in all but the rarest of cases and the fact that it no longer provides a key conduit for the primary flow of goods in the kingdom means that it is not the cash cow that people think it is. If anything, the coming civil war in House Frey will likely spell the end of them as a significant power, and the eventual Lord of the Crossing will discover that it's not all that great of a title.

[House Beaudreau]

On 3/15/2018 at 0:20 PM, John Suburbs said:

Yes, the IB is funding Stannis now, but it seems unlikely that part of this plan would be to lend money to the Manderlys, since they are officially back on team Lannister at this point.

Like I said, it not concrete evidence but the coincidences are building up, supporting that the IB, Stannis, Umbers and Manderly are working together, even if Stannis doesn't have full knowledge of it, the Iron Bank could be plotting for him in maidenpool and White Harbor. Having Debts with the Iron Bank doesn't necessarily mean you have money problems but it would put you in a tough spot if they called in the Debt all at once.  The Iron Bank wouldn't just throw money at Stannis if they believed him to be doomed which everything we see, tells us they are starving and freezing to death.

• the Umbers and Manderlys have been working together to build ships since ACOK. 
• The Manderlys straight up tell Davos that they are false friends to the Freys and the Boltons, and that they will support Stannis if Davos locates Rickon. 
• The Manderlys are the reason Mance Ryder was able to get into Winterfell.
• The Umbers Split up their forces between the Boltons and Stannis but the young boys went with Stannis which seemingly means they are safer with Stannis. 
• The Iron Bank being able to make alliances for Stannis would be easiest with houses that had debts.     

[Free Northman Reborn]

5 minutes ago, House Beaudreau said:

Like I said, it not concrete evidence but the coincidences are building up, supporting that the IB, Stannis, Umbers and Manderly are working together, even if Stannis doesn't have full knowledge of it, the Iron Bank could be plotting for him in maidenpool and White Harbor. Having Debts with the Iron Bank doesn't necessarily mean you have money problems but it would put you in a tough spot if they called in the Debt all at once.  The Iron Bank wouldn't just throw money at Stannis if they believed him to be doomed which everything we see, tells us they are starving and freezing to death.

• the Umbers and Manderlys have been working together to build ships since ACOK. 
• The Manderlys straight up tell Davos that they are false friends to the Freys and the Boltons, and that they will support Stannis if Davos locates Rickon. 
• The Manderlys are the reason Mance Ryder was able to get into Winterfell.
• The Umbers Split up their forces between the Boltons and Stannis but the young boys went with Stannis which seemingly means they are safer with Stannis. 
• The Iron Bank being able to make alliances for Stannis would be easiest with houses that had debts.     

So, I have to point out that this is a false argument. Bullets one through four all sound reasonable, but then you just slip in bullet five, which is utterly baseless and does not flow from the previous four.

There is zero evidence that the Manderlys are in debt, and in fact the evidence supports the opposite. They are rolling in money.

[House Beaudreau]

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So, I have to point out that this is a false argument. Bullets one through four all sound reasonable, but then you just slip in bullet five, which is utterly baseless and does not flow from the previous four.

There is zero evidence that the Manderlys are in debt, and in fact the evidence supports the opposite. They are rolling in money.

Having debts doesn't necessarily mean a house has money problems. In regards to the Iron Bank, houses that have large incomes would probably be the only house available for loans with them since they would have a means of repaying within the term. The Manderlys might not be in debt but that doesn't mean the Iron Bank isn't hedging there bets when they throw in with Stannis. 

Based on what we've heard about the Iron Bank, in theory if the Iron Bank made open war against the Iron Throne, they could call in every debt with every house in Westeros making any house that can't repay in full would have to choose side with the Bank or the Iron Throne. 

Not just poor houses have loans with the Iron Bank that's how banks go out of business. 

[cpg2016]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, interesting that the Freys never flaunt their wealth, nor do they discuss it. They seem quite content to let others believe what they will.

Well they sort of do, because dozens if not hundreds of Freys reside at the Twins.  This is a massive drain on wealth.  Also, given that the Freys are widely considered a sort of nouveau riche, it makes sense that they engage in some kind of ostentatious display.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

As I said, though, the crossing probably brought significant income to House Frey at one time, but the Conquest and the kingsroad put an end to that, so it's not like the Freys could simply dismantle their bridge, since that would diminish their standing in the realm even more.

This probably isn't the case, since the Freys have only been around for 600 years or so.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

If Hoster Tully has watchers on the bridge to verify what tolls are being collected, then he will have an honest accounting of what the incomes are. If not, he has to accept the word of Walder. Either way, the taxes going to Riverrun will not be overly burdensome to the Freys, and Hoster has just as much reason to maintain the illusion of Frey wealth and power as Walder.

I think you misunderstand how feudal economics work.  It's highly unlikely that Hoster Tully engages in any kind of accounting of his vassals at all; they are required to pay him a fixed annual sum and provide troops on request - if Walder Frey sends whatever he is feudally obligated to pay, that's the end of it.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Meanwhile, out in White Harbor, we see a new jetty being built, half-a-mile long with towers and battlements, restoration of the Seal Rock ringfort, war galleys, a clean, orderly city, marble fountain statues and other evidence of the largess that comes from sitting on a key trade route. But despite this, nobody talks about Wyman Manderly being the wealthiest and most powerful of Winterfell's bannermen.

A lot of this is because the Manderly's are using Stark silver to beef up Northern naval capacities.  And people absolutely acknowledge that the Manderlys are among the most powerful and wealthy of the Northern vassal Houses.

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Again, I'm not arguing that the Freys are not wealthy enough to host a king or field an army, but that the source of their wealth is no longer the crossing. The changing politics of the realm has diminished its importance for both commercial and military purposes.

This is explicitly contradicted by the text.  Furthermore, it's almost certain that the Frey's wealth comes from controlling a presumably-lucrative portage business from Seagard down into the heart of the Riverlands - it takes FAR less time to ship goods through Ironman's Bay, portage to the Twins, and then sail south down the Green Fork to ship goods from the western side of Westeros to the Narrow Sea, especially if they are perishable goods.  It's a far shorter (and less dangerous) trip than the noted-in-text long and perilous voyage around Dorne and through the Stepstones.

The point being, not all trade is conducted along roads, and the Freys are well positioned to take advantage of cross-continental trade as well as north-south.  Even IF a merchant wants to use the Kingsroad, it still makes more sense to ship downriver and unload your goods near Darry, and the Freys are probably quite jealous of their privileges, and deny others the ability to construct adequate infrastructure to take that advantage away from them

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 minute ago, House Beaudreau said:

Having debts doesn't necessarily mean a house has money problems. In regards to the Iron Bank, houses that have large incomes would probably be the only house available for loans with them since they would have a means of repaying within the term. The Manderlys might not be in debt but that doesn't mean the Iron Bank isn't hedging there bets when they throw in with Stannis. 

Based on what we've heard about the Iron Bank, in theory if the Iron Bank made open war against the Iron Throne, they could call in every debt with every house in Westeros making any house that can't repay in full would have to choose side with the Bank or the Iron Throne. 

Not just poor houses have loans with the Iron Bank that's how banks go out of business. 

You borrow money when you don't have it. Manderly's vaults are full. There is no evidence that he has borrowed any money. A Braavosi galley in his harbor is not evidence. It is utterly expected for any trade port, particularly one that is close to Braavos. There are likely multiple Braavosi galleys in every port city on the Narrow Sea at any given time.

[Bernie Mac]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, interesting that the Freys never flaunt their wealth, nor do they discuss it. They seem quite content to let others believe what they will.

I'm sorry, but this makes little sense.  I presume, like in many medieval kingdoms, the taxes were based on a percentage of a lords earnings. Why would they be happy in making themselves weaker year after year simply to look a little wealthier than they already are? Why would every Lord sign off on this? Why would Lady Vypren, who took the reigns were her husband was killed in the Dance of the Dragons know about this?

How has this benefited them for the last three centuries?

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

As I said, though, the crossing probably brought significant income to House Frey at one time, but the Conquest and the kingsroad put an end to that,

Surely peace between the realms would increase trade, not decrease it. Taking the Kingsroad is a significant detour for many merchants in the Westerlands and the central west of the Riverlands. It would make more sense for them to use a bridge rather than add a few more weeks on to their travels. 

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

so it's not like the Freys could simply dismantle their bridge, since that would diminish their standing in the realm even more.

How so? 

According to you the bridge offers the Freys little but that does not change the fact that they are still the most powerful vassal of the Tullys. Their standing is on how powerful they are, that is not 'appearance' but fact. 

"House Frey might have abandoned the King in the North, but the Lord of the Crossing remained the most powerful of Riverrun's bannermen"

their military importance is not something that is just pointed out in this era but past eras as well

"Just do your part as promised, and let me concern myself with that. Once we have Butterwell's gold and the swords of House Frey, Harrenhal will follow, then the Brackens. Otho knows he cannot hope to stand…" - The second Blackfyre War

There were many such supporters in the riverlands, who rose in their thousands and joined the prince's host in Rhaenyra's name. Notable amongst them was the puissant knight, Lord Forrest Frey, who had once been a suitor for Rhaenyra's hand. - Dance of the Dragons

They are looked down upon because of the bridge, it is their strength why people respect them and if that strength has nothing to do with the bridge why would they insist on going to the great expense of maintaining it?

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 

If Hoster Tully has watchers on the bridge to verify what tolls are being collected, then he will have an honest accounting of what the incomes are. If not, he has to accept the word of Walder.

Why would Lord Frey and his predecessors all agree to weaken themselves and pay more tax than is required? It makes little sense, it actually make them a target if the Twins is said to generate that much excess cash. 

Why does Hoster and everyone else presume that it is the bridge that is making them rich? The Freys are not boasting about it, surely there are other means for lords to acquire wealth?

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Either way, the taxes going to Riverrun will not be overly burdensome to the Freys, and Hoster has just as much reason to maintain the illusion of Frey wealth and power as Walder.

If paying extra taxes,more so than their peers,  for three centuries is not burdensome for the Freys then logic dictates that they must be wealthy. 

And it makes little sense to what we know about Walder. He does not like doing anything for nothing. Him purposefully paying extra taxes, making the Tully's richer in the process, goes against everything we have been told about him. 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The Freys do not seem to be living beyond their means. I don't see any ostentatious displays of wealth, nor does it appear that Walder is an overly generous man.

The dowry for Walda to Roose speaks otherwise. As does him paying for the ransom of the 6 Freys captured, while the Northern nobles remain, also speaks for itself. 

They were only there a short time, though; one morning two other brothers arrived under a peace banner with a chest of gold, and ransomed them from the knights who'd captured them. The six Freys all left together. No one ransomed the northmen, though.

 

And of course there is the cost of making his many sons, grandsons and greatgrandsons knights

 

"Borrell did fealty for Sweetsister, as Longthorpe did for Longsister and Torrent for Littlesister; all were sworn to Triston Sunderland, the Lord of the Three Sisters. "He'd sell you to the queen for a pot of that Lannister gold. Poor man needs every dragon, with seven sons all determined to be knights." The lord picked up a wooden spoon and attacked his stew again. "I used to curse the gods who gave me only daughters until I heard Triston bemoaning the cost of destriers. You would be surprised to know how many fish it takes to buy a decent suit of plate and mail."

 

Clearly this is not cheap, yet easily done by House Frey.  There is also the fact that Symond's wife, with about 50 people ahead of him in the line of succession, has more handmaidens than we have seen with Cat, Sansa or Arya

You saw them, the arrogant Ser Jared and his nephew Rhaegar, that smirking worm who wears a dragon's name. Behind them both stands Symond, clinking coins. That one has bought and paid for several of my servants and two of my knights. One of his wife's handmaids has found her way into the bed of my own fool.

There is a lot of evidence for how wealthy they are, just because you have chosen to ignore it does not mean it does not exist. 

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

At the same time, we see Wayman himself dressed in satin and velvet of fine colors, embroidered gold thread, an ermine mantle with a gold trident clasp... I never noticed before, but Walder is one of the few characters whose clothes are never described, which might mean they are nothing exceptional. I think there is one scene where he has an ermine robe across his legs.

What is this evidence of? 

Cat thinks of the Freys as wealthy, surely Walder being poorly dressed is going to be more noticeable than him being richly dressed? 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Meanwhile, out in White Harbor, we see a new jetty being built, half-a-mile long with towers and battlements, restoration of the Seal Rock ringfort, war galleys, a clean, orderly city, marble fountain statues and other evidence of the largess that comes from sitting on a key trade route. But despite this, nobody talks about Wyman Manderly being the wealthiest and most powerful of Winterfell's bannermen.

Yeah, they do. It is pointed out that the Manderly's are the richest Nothern House. 

"For that, you need White Harbor. The city cannot compare to Oldtown or King's Landing, but it is still a thriving port. Lord Manderly is the richest of my lord father's bannermen."

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Catelyn grew up in Riverrun, so it's no surprise that she does not remark on its décor, while in the Eyrie, she does notice the blue-veined marble and the statuary in the garden. And from others, we see that it has a throne of carved weirwood, silver sconces and other expensive finery.

She also notes that Riverrun, unlike the Twins, was in need of defensive repairs

"It rose slowly as they approached, and Catelyn saw that the lower half of it was red with rust. The bottom foot dripped brown mud on them as they passed underneath, the barbed spikes mere inches above their heads. Catelyn gazed up at the bars and wondered how deep the rust went and how well the portcullis would stand up to a ram and whether it ought to be replaced."

Having antiques is fine, but the regular maintenance of the castle is both more expensive and more important. 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Again, I'm not arguing that the Freys are not wealthy enough to host a king or field an army, but that the source of their wealth is no longer the crossing.

I'm sorry, but that is exactly what you argued "Mayhaps the Frey wealth was once considerable, but time and circumstances has diminished it?" and  "But those days are long gone, and the house today is not nearly as wealthy as people think it is."

Those are the points I am debating with you about, I see little evidence to suggest that they are not as wealthy as they are perceived to be. 

I have no problem with the bulk of that wealth coming from their lands rather than their bridge, it is something that I pointed out to you in my very first post in this thread, but I also don't believe this conspiracy you have concocted that the Frey's are deliberately overpaying taxes for three centuries and all the Riverlords, and even Dunk from Kings Landing, have all been tricked into thinking their bridge is a means to make money. 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 

The changing politics of the realm has diminished its importance for both commercial and military purposes.

To what purpose in the books? 

Why has GRRM, in the appendix no less, talked about their wealth and the bridge? Why not just say they are wealthy for other means?

Why is everyone convinced that their wealth comes from the bridge? 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

It surprises her because she thought Walder would put her in something less grand out of spite.

Exactly. It has nothing to do with your theory that the Frey's are pretending to be richer than they are. 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

And again, you seem to be under the mistaken impression that I think the Freys are strapped for cash.

No I don't. 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 

Sure, all of these quotes are from people who believe that Frey wealth comes from their bridge.

One of those quotes is from the author, he wrote the appendix. 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 

But these are simply the stories that have taken hold over the years, which originated in the days before there was a kingsroad and there were multiple petty kings all eager to cross the Green Fork to make war on one another. Those days are over.

How so? It is quicker for some merchants both in the central Riverlands and the Northern Westerlands to use the crossing rather than take the long way around to get to the Kingsroad. 

Robb is at Riverrun and the quickest way for him to get to the Twins is not to march his army to meet up with Roose but to go directly to the Twins itself. Merchants from the Riverrun lands, and the neighbouring Bracken and Blackwood lands are all going to save time (and time is money) by going a more direct route and the same would be true of Northern merchants wanting access the northern Westerlands and the central Riverlands quicker.  

The Freys are boosting their coffers by making this money while simultaneously making the Lords of where these merchants are from slightly poorer given the merchants would have slighly less profit. Over a week, month or maybe even a year this is likely negligible to these Lords but over three centuries it would be significant, it gives the Freys a constant revenue stream even in Winter when few Lords are able to make money. 

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 

So given the fact that the bulk of the cross-realm trade is now following the kingsroad .

eh? I'm lost, where have you proven that merchants in the central riverlands and northern westerlands are all deliberately taking much longer journeys just to use the free kingsroad?

If there is a quicker and more direct route, which the crossing offers to some, then merchants will take it. Thar is as true today as it was when merchants travelled the silk road. 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Symond bribed two knights and a couple of servants. Roose received Walda's (I assume you meant Walda, not Walder) weight in silver. I don't recall anything about the Freys building warships. They're pretty far inland. They would need a port to build warships.

 Wardship! You have missed out the 'd'. Like dowries, sending children out to be wards was not cheap and the more high profile the Lord teaching the ward the more expensive that tended to be. There are quite a few of Walder's brood who are wards or had been wards for prominent Houses. 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The people who live and inhabit this world have also come to the conclusion that Sunspear can field 50,000 spears

It was written in a book and no one has disputed it given that the Dornish army has rarely fought outside of Dorne

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 

and that the Lannisters are sitting on a veritable mountain of gold -- the first is clearly untrue, the second may be as well.

Not according to the author. That is a show only plot and in it the Lannisters are worried as Tywin points out that, thanks to their spending, they can no longer spend. This is a recent development for House Lannister, not like your suggestion of the Freys overspending for three centuries. 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I'm not saying there needs to be any reveal or that it will affect the story in any principal way. I'm just saying that the crossing's lack of military relevance in all but the rarest of cases and the fact that it no longer provides a key conduit for the primary flow of goods

Why do the characters in this wold believe  that is does provide a key conduit of primary goods? What is more likely, that they are missing some information on this or that you are?

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

I don't think there is any doubt that the Freys are rich and powerful. I just think Martin screwed up a tad with the location of their supposed wealth generating bridge.

And I certainly don't believe they are close to the Manderlys level of wealth.

[Corvo the Crow]

We do have a house that actually pays more taxes to look more powerful than they are, Martells, but Freys have no need for it. We see their strength throughout the series.

[House Beaudreau]

8 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

You borrow money when you don't have it. Manderly's vaults are full. There is no evidence that he has borrowed any money. A Braavosi galley in his harbor is not evidence. It is utterly expected for any trade port, particularly one that is close to Braavos. There are likely multiple Braavosi galleys in every port city on the Narrow Sea at any given time

So in no way do you think that Davos seeing a Braavosi ship in White Harbor has anything at all to do with White Harbor joining Stannis around the same time the Iron Bank is going all in on Stannis

[Bernie Mac]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

We do have a house that actually pays more taxes to look more powerful than they are, Martells, but Freys have no need for it. We see their strength throughout the series.

Are you sure about that? I know they have more freedom than the other realms but I don't recall them paying more. 

However, Prince Maron had won a few concessions in the accord, and the lords of Dorne held significant rights and privileges that the other great houses did not—the right to keep their royal title first among them, but also the autonomy to maintain their own laws, the right to assess and gather the taxes due to the Iron Throne with only irregular oversight from the Red Keep, and other such matters.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, House Beaudreau said:

So in no way do you think that Davos seeing a Braavosi ship in White Harbor has anything at all to do with White Harbor joining Stannis around the same time the Iron Bank is going all in on Stannis

I think making such a conclusion based on the presence of a Braavosi galley in White Harbor is ludicrous. I actually remember reading the Davos chapters in Dance for the first time, as I was eager to learn more about White Harbor back then. I read the description of the Harbor particularly closely. I was impressed by the size of the Harbor (a mile long wall was needed just to enclose the smaller, inner harbor). And I was impressed by the 23 warships in the inner harbor. But I distinctly remember being rather disappointed that there was only one Braavosi galley in the trading harbor, given Braavos pre-eminence among the Free cities and its proximity to White Harbor. I expected there to be at least a dozen. So seeing one Braavosi galley there, far from signifying anything out of the ordinary, was actually a bit of a let down.

[Corvo the Crow]

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

Are you sure about that? I know they have more freedom than the other realms but I don't recall them paying more. 

However, Prince Maron had won a few concessions in the accord, and the lords of Dorne held significant rights and privileges that the other great houses did not—the right to keep their royal title first among them, but also the autonomy to maintain their own laws, the right to assess and gather the taxes due to the Iron Throne with only irregular oversight from the Red Keep, and other such matters.

Ran had a post to that effect in military strengths thread. Posting this form phone so can't quote it atm.

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, House Beaudreau said:

Like I said, it not concrete evidence but the coincidences are building up, supporting that the IB, Stannis, Umbers and Manderly are working together, even if Stannis doesn't have full knowledge of it, the Iron Bank could be plotting for him in maidenpool and White Harbor. Having Debts with the Iron Bank doesn't necessarily mean you have money problems but it would put you in a tough spot if they called in the Debt all at once.  The Iron Bank wouldn't just throw money at Stannis if they believed him to be doomed which everything we see, tells us they are starving and freezing to death.

• the Umbers and Manderlys have been working together to build ships since ACOK. 
• The Manderlys straight up tell Davos that they are false friends to the Freys and the Boltons, and that they will support Stannis if Davos locates Rickon. 
• The Manderlys are the reason Mance Ryder was able to get into Winterfell.
• The Umbers Split up their forces between the Boltons and Stannis but the young boys went with Stannis which seemingly means they are safer with Stannis. 
• The Iron Bank being able to make alliances for Stannis would be easiest with houses that had debts.     

OK, but I think you are getting a little ahead of things. The IB has loaned money to Stannis, but it's quite a stretch to say that because there are trading ships in Maidenpool and White Harbor that they are also loaning money to Manderlys, Umbers and whoever else is involved with whatever is going on in the north.

The Manderlys have been talking about building a war fleet since Clash, but at no time has there been any mention of having to borrow money to do this, nor has anyone from the IB been seen in relation to this plan. There is plenty of wood in the north and the Manderlys have both the money and the expertise to build ships -- no reason at all to think they need to borrow from the IB. In fact, Wyman talks about minting new coins for the northern kingdom, which he wouldn't do unless he had the gold and/or silver to do it.

Also, Tycho loaned the money to Stannis before he left the wall. There was no way of knowing he would get trapped in the snow, and when Tycho does arrive at Stannis' frozen camp he does not call in the loan because

Spoiler

Stannis sends Justin Massey to Braavos to use the IB loan to hire sellswords.

 

[House Beaudreau]

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I think making such a conclusion based on the presence of a Braavosi galley in White Harbor is ludicrous. I actually remember reading the Davos chapters in Dance for the first time, as I was eager to learn more about White Harbor back then. I read the description of the Harbor particularly closely. I was impressed by the size of the Harbor (a mile long wall was needed just to enclose the smaller, inner harbor). And I was impressed by the 23 warships in the inner harbor. But I distinctly remember being rather disappointed that there was only one Braavosi galley in the trading harbor, given Braavos pre-eminence among the Free cities and its proximity to White Harbor. I expected there to be at least a dozen. So seeing one Braavosi galley there, far from signifying anything out of the ordinary, was actually a bit of a let down.

that's a fair point, but is the presence of only one ship more curious considering we would expect far more Braavosi ships? Just like the the single braavosi ship in Salt Pans that takes Arya to Braavos, I always thought it was odd that a single Braavosi ship was in Salt Pans, Considering how messed up the Riverlands were at the time it seems like Gulltown or somewhere else would make more sense. but maybe it's just a coincidence that the one ship Arya needed was in the closest port to her almost like they were waiting for her. 

 

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

Well they sort of do, because dozens if not hundreds of Freys reside at the Twins.  This is a massive drain on wealth.  Also, given that the Freys are widely considered a sort of nouveau riche, it makes sense that they engage in some kind of ostentatious display.

But there is nothing ostentatious about them, at least as far as we can tell. Virtually every other noble person we see gets a full description of their fine clothes, expensive jewels, the lavishness of their hall, the grandeur of their feasts, but nobody notices anything of the sort about the Freys. So, yes, their large family and upkeep on the bridge and their castles are likely bleeding the house dry, which would not be the case if they were receiving a substantial income from the crossing.

19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

This probably isn't the case, since the Freys have only been around for 600 years or so.

But look at the situation back then compared to now. You had any number of marsh kings, river kings, vale kings, storm kings and iron kings all warring against each other, not to mention warfare between Brackens, Blackwoods, Vances, Mallisters and others. All of this would not only result in armies desperate to cross the river in order to get a jump on their enemies, but would lead to a flood of refugees trying to escape the fighting. Add to that the fact there is no main artery diverting the flow of goods around the Twins, and the only crossing on the Green Fork would serve as a natural conduit for trade in the area.

Since the Conquest, however, the only known crossing by an army was Robb's. Even if we add Ned and Torrhen Stark, that amounts to three in the last 300 years. And with the kingdom united, there is no longer a risk when moving goods down river because the chances of it being confiscated by a hostile army is nil.

So at best, the crossing is now receiving a trickle of the traffic that it once was, and thus, the income from tolls is greatly diminished.

19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

I think you misunderstand how feudal economics work.  It's highly unlikely that Hoster Tully engages in any kind of accounting of his vassals at all; they are required to pay him a fixed annual sum and provide troops on request - if Walder Frey sends whatever he is feudally obligated to pay, that's the end of it.

Nonsense, Hoster Tully is not going to just pick an amount out of thin air and demand it of all his vassals. That's a sure way to lead to rebellion. If he doesn't have his own eyes and ears verifying the trade activity in his realm then he has to rely on the honesty of his bannermen. But he's not stupid; of course he is going to have officials and taxmen checking up on all the mills, inns, keeps, villages, towns and river crossings to make sure a) he is not being cheated, and b ) that the safety and security of his realm is in good order.

19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

A lot of this is because the Manderly's are using Stark silver to beef up Northern naval capacities.  And people absolutely acknowledge that the Manderlys are among the most powerful and wealthy of the Northern vassal Houses.

Yes, they are recognized as rich and powerful -- mistake on my part. But where do you think Stark silver comes from? I've never heard anyone mention the Starks operating a silver mine. They receive their coin primarily from the duties collected in White Harbor or from their own surplus goods sold in White Harbor.

19 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

This is explicitly contradicted by the text.  Furthermore, it's almost certain that the Frey's wealth comes from controlling a presumably-lucrative portage business from Seagard down into the heart of the Riverlands - it takes FAR less time to ship goods through Ironman's Bay, portage to the Twins, and then sail south down the Green Fork to ship goods from the western side of Westeros to the Narrow Sea, especially if they are perishable goods.  It's a far shorter (and less dangerous) trip than the noted-in-text long and perilous voyage around Dorne and through the Stepstones.

The point being, not all trade is conducted along roads, and the Freys are well positioned to take advantage of cross-continental trade as well as north-south.  Even IF a merchant wants to use the Kingsroad, it still makes more sense to ship downriver and unload your goods near Darry, and the Freys are probably quite jealous of their privileges, and deny others the ability to construct adequate infrastructure to take that advantage away from them

This is my point: it is contradicted in the text but only because the POVs who are providing the text are being misled. Just as we were told that Dorne could field 50,000 spears, the talk of vast Frey wealth from the crossing is overblown. In what way would north-south or cross-continental trade rely on the Twins? All the trade from Essos is coming into White Harbor, Maindenpool, Saltpans, King's Landing or other seaports, with most of it heading up the kingsroad. If you wanted to access that relatively small part of the riverlands, would it make more sense to wagon it up the road, turn left to the Twins, pay the toll and then overland again to market, or just sail it upriver. Draft animals are very slow and expensive, boats are fast and require no fodder.

Seagard is not a major trading port; it's pretty much a defensive fort. Just to get goods to Seagard is a risk because you have to snake your way through the narrow channels in Ironmen's Bay. Sure, the ironmen are not the reavers they once were, but they're still not above boarding a ship, taking all the loot and scuttling it. I don't see why anyone would want to move goods north from Seagard to the Twins, pay the toll to cross and then sail their cargo down the Green Fork. Look at the map: wouldn't it make more sense to portage it to the headwaters of the Blue Fork, or cut directly across to the GF south of the Twins and head downriver from there?

So, sorry, but no, the crossing is at best a regional asset for moving goods in and around the immediate vicinity of the Twins. I think you would have a case if there was a major seaport on the western shore of the Bite, but there isn't -- which itself is puzzling.

[John Suburbs]

 

20 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

I'm sorry, but this makes little sense.  I presume, like in many medieval kingdoms, the taxes were based on a percentage of a lords earnings. Why would they be happy in making themselves weaker year after year simply to look a little wealthier than they already are? Why would every Lord sign off on this? Why would Lady Vypren, who took the reigns were her husband was killed in the Dance of the Dragons know about this?

How has this benefited them for the last three centuries?

Surely peace between the realms would increase trade, not decrease it. Taking the Kingsroad is a significant detour for many merchants in the Westerlands and the central west of the Riverlands. It would make more sense for them to use a bridge rather than add a few more weeks on to their travels. 

Sure, the earnings, the real earnings. Hoster Tully would not want it known that the principal house on his eastern border is not as wealthy or powerful as it seems. He is not an idiot; he is sure to have officials, tax collectors and others all throughout the realm keeping track of economic activity, including river crossings. He is collecting a portion, but there is no reason to think the Freys are paying any more then they are able.

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Surely peace between the realms would increase trade, not decrease it. Taking the Kingsroad is a significant detour for many merchants in the Westerlands and the central west of the Riverlands. It would make more sense for them to use a bridge rather than add a few more weeks on to their travels. 

Of course it would, but it would also free up the rivers to move goods. When there are multiple petty kings in the region, every time you moved from one section of the river to another you run the risk of being boarded and your goods confiscated. Now that the entire region is under the king's peace, this is no longer an issue. Sure, there are river pirates, but there are also robbers on the kingsroad.

For the westerlands and the central west riverlands, the twins is the significant detour. Why go all they way north, just to pay a toll to get to the kingsroad when you can just float your goods down any one of the major rivers to the seaports where you can get the highest prices for your goods? At best, the crossing is useful for the immediate area around the twins, but all other trade will get to the lucrative markets quicker and more cheaply by river.

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

How so? 

According to you the bridge offers the Freys little but that does not change the fact that they are still the most powerful vassal of the Tullys. Their standing is on how powerful they are, that is not 'appearance' but fact. 

"House Frey might have abandoned the King in the North, but the Lord of the Crossing remained the most powerful of Riverrun's bannermen"

their military importance is not something that is just pointed out in this era but past eras as well

"Just do your part as promised, and let me concern myself with that. Once we have Butterwell's gold and the swords of House Frey, Harrenhal will follow, then the Brackens. Otho knows he cannot hope to stand…" - The second Blackfyre War

There were many such supporters in the riverlands, who rose in their thousands and joined the prince's host in Rhaenyra's name. Notable amongst them was the puissant knight, Lord Forrest Frey, who had once been a suitor for Rhaenyra's hand. - Dance of the Dragons

They are looked down upon because of the bridge, it is their strength why people respect them and if that strength has nothing to do with the bridge why would they insist on going to the great expense of maintaining it?

Because a) it's not easy to dismantle a bridge across a major river and b ) the crossing is only reason why people think the Freys are so rich and powerful. And c) it would look pretty silly for the Lord of the Crossing to no longer have a crossing. Plus, you never know, the dragons are dead and the realm may just be on the verge of another round of anarchy that would reestablish the crossing as a key military and commercial asset.

I am sure they are still a powerful Tully vassal, perhaps even the most powerful. All I'm saying is that the tolls from the crossing are not as great as they once were, so it is no longer the principal contributor to their wealth and power.

19 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Why would Lord Frey and his predecessors all agree to weaken themselves and pay more tax than is required? It makes little sense, it actually make them a target if the Twins is said to generate that much excess cash. 

Why does Hoster and everyone else presume that it is the bridge that is making them rich? The Freys are not boasting about it, surely there are other means for lords to acquire wealth?

If paying extra taxes,more so than their peers,  for three centuries is not burdensome for the Freys then logic dictates that they must be wealthy. 

And it makes little sense to what we know about Walder. He does not like doing anything for nothing. Him purposefully paying extra taxes, making the Tully's richer in the process, goes against everything we have been told about him. 

The dowry for Walda to Roose speaks otherwise. As does him paying for the ransom of the 6 Freys captured, while the Northern nobles remain, also speaks for itself. 

They were only there a short time, though; one morning two other brothers arrived under a peace banner with a chest of gold, and ransomed them from the knights who'd captured them. The six Freys all left together. No one ransomed the northmen, though.

 

And of course there is the cost of making his many sons, grandsons and greatgrandsons knights

 

"Borrell did fealty for Sweetsister, as Longthorpe did for Longsister and Torrent for Littlesister; all were sworn to Triston Sunderland, the Lord of the Three Sisters. "He'd sell you to the queen for a pot of that Lannister gold. Poor man needs every dragon, with seven sons all determined to be knights." The lord picked up a wooden spoon and attacked his stew again. "I used to curse the gods who gave me only daughters until I heard Triston bemoaning the cost of destriers. You would be surprised to know how many fish it takes to buy a decent suit of plate and mail."

 

Clearly this is not cheap, yet easily done by House Frey.  There is also the fact that Symond's wife, with about 50 people ahead of him in the line of succession, has more handmaidens than we have seen with Cat, Sansa or Arya

You saw them, the arrogant Ser Jared and his nephew Rhaegar, that smirking worm who wears a dragon's name. Behind them both stands Symond, clinking coins. That one has bought and paid for several of my servants and two of my knights. One of his wife's handmaids has found her way into the bed of my own fool.

There is a lot of evidence for how wealthy they are, just because you have chosen to ignore it does not mean it does not exist. 

 

Like I said above, I doubt they are paying more to Riverrun than what they actually owe.

Every mention of the Freys talks about how rich and powerful they are by virtue of the crossing. The history of their family is that the tolls are the source of their wealth.

They are obviously able to produce gold and silver and whatever else is needed to pay dowries, field armies, bribe officials and whatever else. But the source of this wealth is very unlikely to come from the crossing. It's just not that important anymore.

19 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

What is this evidence of? 

Cat thinks of the Freys as wealthy, surely Walder being poorly dressed is going to be more noticeable than him being richly dressed? 

Virtually every other lord is described head to toe in fine fabrics, expensive jewels and all the other trappings of wealth, but never Walder Frey. Why would everyone notice the finery on these other lords if that is exactly what they are expected to look like?

But again, you keep coming back to this idea that I'm saying the Freys are flat broke. I'm not saying that at all, just that the tolls are no longer a significant source of their wealth.

19 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Yeah, they do. It is pointed out that the Manderly's are the richest Nothern House. 

"For that, you need White Harbor. The city cannot compare to Oldtown or King's Landing, but it is still a thriving port. Lord Manderly is the richest of my lord father's bannermen."

Yes, noted. My mistake.

19 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

I'm sorry, but that is exactly what you argued "Mayhaps the Frey wealth was once considerable, but time and circumstances has diminished it?" and  "But those days are long gone, and the house today is not nearly as wealthy as people think it is."

Those are the points I am debating with you about, I see little evidence to suggest that they are not as wealthy as they are perceived to be. 

I have no problem with the bulk of that wealth coming from their lands rather than their bridge, it is something that I pointed out to you in my very first post in this thread, but I also don't believe this conspiracy you have concocted that the Frey's are deliberately overpaying taxes for three centuries and all the Riverlords, and even Dunk from Kings Landing, have all been tricked into thinking their bridge is a means to make money. 

I never said they were destitute, just that their wealth is not as considerable as it once was.

I didn't concoct the overtaxes conspiracy; that was your idea. All I said was that if they had to pay a little extra they would do so, but this is unlikely because Hoster Tully would have his own men verifying the incomes so as not to be cheated.

So it looks to me like we're in agreement here: the Tullys are still very wealthy, but that wealth is more likely to come from their lands rather than their tolls.

 

19 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

To what purpose in the books? 

Why has GRRM, in the appendix no less, talked about their wealth and the bridge? Why not just say they are wealthy for other means?

Who knows? Why don't we wait until the rest of the story comes out to make that call?

The appendix tells the history of each house. The Frey history is that they grew rich off the tolls, which is quite likely true. I'm just saying that the situation now, politically and commercially, makes it unlikely in the present. From what I gather, you agree with this as well.

19 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

Why is everyone convinced that their wealth comes from the bridge? 

Because that is the history they've been told. Why does everyone believe Dorne has 50,000 spears?

19 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Exactly. It has nothing to do with your theory that the Frey's are pretending to be richer than they are. 

Because she notices this finery. She doesn't notice it anywhere else in the castle.

19 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

INo I don't. 

One of those quotes is from the author, he wrote the appendix. 

Obviously you do because you keep saying it despite that fact that I've been very clear all along that that is not what I am saying.

The author wrote the entire book, and there are many things that people believe that are not true. The appendices are not necessarily the author's unvarnished truth -- they are simply the histories of the major houses as told in the story.

19 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

How so? It is quicker for some merchants both in the central Riverlands and the Northern Westerlands to use the crossing rather than take the long way around to get to the Kingsroad. 

Robb is at Riverrun and the quickest way for him to get to the Twins is not to march his army to meet up with Roose but to go directly to the Twins itself. Merchants from the Riverrun lands, and the neighbouring Bracken and Blackwood lands are all going to save time (and time is money) by going a more direct route and the same would be true of Northern merchants wanting access the northern Westerlands and the central Riverlands quicker.  

The Freys are boosting their coffers by making this money while simultaneously making the Lords of where these merchants are from slightly poorer given the merchants would have slighly less profit. Over a week, month or maybe even a year this is likely negligible to these Lords but over three centuries it would be significant, it gives the Freys a constant revenue stream even in Winter when few Lords are able to make money. 

Why would they want to travel the kingsroad to sell their goods when they can just float downriver to the seaports where they can get the best prices? Moving goods by river is quick and cheap. Overland is slow and expensive.

Robb needed to cross, and his was one of maybe three armies that needed to do this in the last 300 years. Any merchant in neighboring Bracken and Blackwood lands are going to save time and money by taking the river directly to the principal markets. Any northern merchant would head over to White Harbor where, again, the prices will be highest. If they bother to trudge the two weeks down the causeway, they would still have plenty of places to sell and trade along the kingsroad. So at best, the crossing would receive a bare trickle of this traffic to sell on the other side of the GF, and they would be competing with cheaper goods coming upriver directly from the main trade route.

Like I said earlier, there is likely to be very little traffic in winter. It's cold and most people are living off their own stores, not selling them. Goods from Essos, of course, are still coming in, however, and it is far easier to tap this section of the riverlands by sailing upriver than taking the kingsroad, cutting across land and paying a toll.

19 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

eh? I'm lost, where have you proven that merchants in the central riverlands and northern westerlands are all deliberately taking much longer journeys just to use the free kingsroad?

If there is a quicker and more direct route, which the crossing offers to some, then merchants will take it. Thar is as true today as it was when merchants travelled the silk road. 

They're not. They are moving goods downriver to the major markets on the eastern side of the realm. The main flow of goods moving north and south is following the kingsroad, and it is much easier to access the riverlands from the south by sailing upriver. From the north, sure, they could use the crossing, but they are likely to get much better prices for their goods along the kingsroad or at any of the ports on the narrow sea than diverting west into the riverlands. Like I said, this is a trickle compared to the main action on the KR.

Uhm, have you noticed that nobody uses the silk road anymore? It's much cheaper, easier and faster to move goods by sea. Anyone who is collecting tolls on what used to be the silk road is getting only the barest fraction of trade -- the regional action, not the main action.

19 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 Wardship! You have missed out the 'd'. Like dowries, sending children out to be wards was not cheap and the more high profile the Lord teaching the ward the more expensive that tended to be. There are quite a few of Walder's brood who are wards or had been wards for prominent Houses. 

Lol, sorry, my bad. But again, no one is arguing that the Freys are destitute. I hope whatever misunderstanding we had on this point has been cleared up by now. They have means, incomes, etc. expected of a major house with extensive lands and a kick-ass pair of castles. But tolls from the crossing are not likely to be a significant source of this wealth.

19 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

It was written in a book and no one has disputed it given that the Dornish army has rarely fought outside of Dorne

Not according to the author. That is a show only plot and in it the Lannisters are worried as Tywin points out that, thanks to their spending, they can no longer spend. This is a recent development for House Lannister, not like your suggestion of the Freys overspending for three centuries. 

Why do the characters in this wold believe  that is does provide a key conduit of primary goods? What is more likely, that they are missing some information on this or that you are?

 

OK, so the same situation here. Nobody actually knows how wealthy the Freys are. All they know is what they've been told about the history of the house. Just like Dorne, that history is not necessarily true.

Meh, we may or may not find out about House Lannister's finances. But, please for the last time, I am not arguing that the Freys are "overspending." If they are, it's hard to see what they are overspending on.

The characters in the book are repeating what they have been told is the truth about the Freys and the crossing. Mayhaps some of the more perceptive characters can puzzle out the real situation here, but Catelyn, for one, would not be one of them.

[House Beaudreau]

48 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

OK, but I think you are getting a little ahead of things. The IB has loaned money to Stannis, but it's quite a stretch to say that because there are trading ships in Maidenpool and White Harbor that they are also loaning money to Manderlys, Umbers and whoever else is involved with whatever is going on in the north.

The Manderlys have been talking about building a war fleet since Clash, but at no time has there been any mention of having to borrow money to do this, nor has anyone from the IB been seen in relation to this plan. There is plenty of wood in the north and the Manderlys have both the money and the expertise to build ships -- no reason at all to think they need to borrow from the IB. In fact, Wyman talks about minting new coins for the northern kingdom, which he wouldn't do unless he had the gold and/or silver to do it.

Also, Tycho loaned the money to Stannis before he left the wall. There was no way of knowing he would get trapped in the snow, and when Tycho does arrive at Stannis' frozen camp he does not call in the loan because

  Reveal hidden contents

Stannis sends Justin Massey to Braavos to use the IB loan to hire sellswords.

 

The Iron Bank doesn't have to be loaning money to the Manderlys to be in White Harbor, they could be collecting debts from this lord or that lord or any of the merchants that are in White Harbor or they could have been negotiating something with Manderly and Glover to hedge their bet on Stannis, because it makes no sense whatsoever to loan Stannis money in the situation that he's in if they don't know something we don't. The Iron Bank isn't just giving money to Claimants they don't think have a chance. 

Stannis and Tycho don't make any arrangements or meet until the crofters village in Theon I of TWOW. Tycho had already made a deal with Jon at the Wall and then went to Deadwood Motte and made some sort of deal with Lady Glover to buy her Ironborn Hostages. And I believe he had already visited White Harbor and possible Maidenpool. All these things relating to the Iron Banks involvement in the events happening in the north seem like more than just random chance. There are things that don't make sense unless there is some sort of Northern conspiracy between Stannis, the Iron Bank, the Manderlys, the Umbers, Mance and the Glovers. 

the Coincidences are staking up if there is no conspiracy involving the Iron Bank and the Northern Lords

• The Ships the Manderlys are building are irrelevant, it only shows that the manderlys and Umbers have been in cooperation since ACOK
• The Umbers are definitely working some plan because they split up there forces, the young boys with Mors dug pits outside of Winterfell that the Freys fall into, but the Manderlys go out a different gate.
• Mors wears a Snow bear pelt as a cloak which only comes from North of the Wall meaning there is some trading with the Wildlings, and some of the northern lords refer to Mance as "the Mance" like The Little or The Norrey or The Flint, Mance seems to be trading with the northern lords. 
• Mance only gets into winterfell because the Manderlys don't bring a singer with them, and Mors horn signals the Spear wives where to escape with Theon and Jeyne Poole.
• Manderly has already told Davos that they will support Stannis if he gets Rickon, but they don't really seem to care much for Arya meaning they probably know she is a fake, and Mance would know what Arya looks like. He would it at least know that jeyne poole doesn't have the Stark look. so it seem that the whole plan inside Winterfell was to rescue Theon. 
• The Glovers release the Ironborn captives even though they hold there children at harlaw, but Robett Glover is at White Harbor with Manderlys and might know that there is already a plan in place to get Theon which would make a far better trade for his children which could be the reason his wife allows the Ironborn to go with Tycho. 
• If Tycho was making a deal in White Harbor it would surely be in Stannis's favor considering the Iron Bank was getting ready to back Stannis.
• And long shot if Tycho was in Maidenpool he was probably treating with Randyll Tarly, possible unrelated to the North but could a deal have been made that if Stannis wins the North the Tarlys will change sides and support his claim. They probably don't have a lot of love for the Lannisters and with Marge in prison, Loras possibly dying on Dragonstone and Willis a cripple they might think that there time is now to become the Rulers of the Reach... like I said this is a longshot, but Tarly does race back to King's Landing and take Margery back from the Faith, either to protect her or as a hostage maybe??? 
• And Stannis sending Justin Massey to Essos to hire sellswords even if he hears that Stannis is dead tells me that the Iron Bank gave some sort of assurance that in the event of Stannis's death they would back Shireen's claim. Really willing to do anything to get their money back from the Iron Throne. 

[John Suburbs]

11 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Are you sure about that? I know they have more freedom than the other realms but I don't recall them paying more. 

However, Prince Maron had won a few concessions in the accord, and the lords of Dorne held significant rights and privileges that the other great houses did not—the right to keep their royal title first among them, but also the autonomy to maintain their own laws, the right to assess and gather the taxes due to the Iron Throne with only irregular oversight from the Red Keep, and other such matters.

Yes, this right to assess and gather taxes is a unique situation for Dorne. So there is no reason to think that they Freys would also have this similarly unique right to gather and pay taxes on their crossing with only irregular oversight from Riverrun.