U.S Politics; The Price of Steele

[Larry of the Lawn]

10 minutes ago, unpaid comintern said:

lmao, damn. hope she absolutely crushes him

cynthia nixon may run against cuomo in ny governor primary

Ha!  They mentioned that on WAMC (our public radio here) a few weeks ago. 

Really hoping that Zephyr Teachout would run again.  I think Stephanie Miner has the best shot at taking Cuomo down but I think he's kind of bullet-proof in the primary.  

[all swedes are racist]

9 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Ha!  They mentioned that on WAMC (our public radio here) a few weeks ago. 

Really hoping that Zephyr Teachout would run again.  I think Stephanie Miner has the best shot at taking Cuomo down but I think he's kind of bullet-proof in the primary.  

yeah, true, unfortunately. 

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

That’s an aspect of his job, but not the sole end. And he has repeatedly said that the economists who think this will lead to long term harm for the steel industry are full of it, even though their logic is sound. Furthermore, there is ample evidence that while this might help steel workers as far as their own jobs are concerned, it will hurt them in many other ways in their everyday lives which could have more impact. He simply isn’t listening to anyone who is critical of the tariffs, and he isn’t considering any of the obvious externalities of this policy change. He didn’t even understand that other countries would retaliate. He is willfully uninformed. That’s not what a good leader does.

The cost of beer will be going way up . . . .

[Larry of the Lawn]

18 minutes ago, Zorral said:

The cost of beer will be going way up . . . .

Why, because of increases on steel-keg production?  

[The Wedge]

2 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Why, because of increases on steel-keg production?  

Aluminum cans.

http://www.grubstreet.com/2018/03/beer-industry-claims-aluminum-tariff-could-destroy-20000-jobs.html

[Larry of the Lawn]

2 minutes ago, The Wedge said:

Aluminum cans.

http://www.grubstreet.com/2018/03/beer-industry-claims-aluminum-tariff-could-destroy-20000-jobs.html

Fucking hell.  This prezdude needs to go

[Jace, Extat]

If I can keep my 2L bottles at the same price then I'll survive.

Otherwise, hold me back Secret Service! Jace needs the good Dr.

[Fragile Bird]

15 hours ago, ants said:

So, Kellyanne Conway has been cited for several Hatch Act Violations.  Anyone think anything will come of it?  It seems Trump has to discipline her, what are the chances of that happening? 

Correct me if I’m wrong, but when the offenses were first brought up, months ago, didn’t Trump call her into his office and scold her?

eta: “nudge nudge wink wink”

[Zorral]

18 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but when the offenses were first brought up, months ago, didn’t Trump call her into his office and scold her?

eta: “nudge nudge wink wink”

They kissed and made up.

[Fragile Bird]

I just went back and re-read posts I only had time to skim before, and a couple of comments come to mind.

People here and in the media have talked about how quiet Democrats have been in reaction to Trump’s tariff moves and his attacks on NAFTA and, effectively, allies. I just shake my head in surprise. The Democrats have proclaimed themselves as being anti-free trade in many ways (‘fair trade, yes’). Clinton campaigned on changing NAFTA too. It’s just that when Democrats are in power they forget about those positions because trade has been really really good for the US. The official party line has been  that workers would be weaned off the assembly line and into the services areas instead. Not menial services, intellectual services, where the jobs would pay well.

What no one was willing to admit, probably because they both didn’t know but also wanted to be optimistic, was how long this transition would take. There’s a whole generation that couldn't make the shift, and with the damage being done to the US education system, members of future generations that will never make the shift either.

You don’t make trade agreements with enemies, after all, so of course allies are being hurt. Trump, in his press conference with the Swedish PM yesterday, bizarrely talked about how the tariffs and the trade wars would be ‘lovingly, oh so lovingly’ done, and other nations would then have new found respect for the US. It reminded me of ‘how much love in his heart’ he said he had for dreamers.

Once upon a time, when I was young and the Vietnam Nam war made everyone hate Americans for a decade afterwards, Americans traveling in Europe sewed Canadian flags on their backpacks because they figured they could pass quite easily. Those times might be coming back.

[Martell Spy]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/07/trump-china-trade-391240?lo=ap_a1

Trump eyes another trade crackdown

Quote

 

Officials say the president is itching to go after China on trade issues after months of being urged to be more moderate.

President Donald Trump is already eyeing another trade crackdown, one that is squarely aimed at punishing China

 

.

[Larry of the Lawn]

5 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I just went back and re-read posts I only had time to skim before, and a couple of comments come to mind.

People here and in the media have talked about how quiet Democrats have been in reaction to Trump’s tariff moves and his attacks on NAFTA and, effectively, allies. I just shake my head in surprise. The Democrats have proclaimed themselves as being anti-free trade in many ways (‘fair trade, yes’). Clinton campaigned on changing NAFTA too. It’s just that when Democrats are in power they forget about those positions because trade has been really really good for the US. The official party line has been  that workers would be weaned off the assembly line and into the services areas instead. Not menial services, intellectual services, where the jobs would pay well.

What no one was willing to admit, probably because they both didn’t know but also wanted to be optimistic, was how long this transition would take. There’s a whole generation that couldn't make the shift, and with the damage being done to the US education system, members of future generations that will never make the shift either.

You don’t make trade agreements with enemies, after all, so of course allies are being hurt. Trump, in his press conference with the Swedish PM yesterday, bizarrely talked about how the tariffs and the trade wars would be ‘lovingly, oh so lovingly’ done, and other nations would then have new found respect for the US. It reminded me of ‘how much love in his heart’ he said he had for dreamers.

Once upon a time, when I was young and the Vietnam Nam war made everyone hate Americans for a decade afterwards, Americans traveling in Europe sewed Canadian flags on their backpacks because they figured they could pass quite easily. Those times might be coming back.

Those times have come back before.

I was a college freshman when 9-11 happened, a lot of my classmates were abroad in 2003 and 2004.  A bunch tried to pass as Canadian then due to the Iraq War.  Same thing after that hotel shooting in India where the attackers apparently selected hostages for execution with preference given to American and British passport holders.

[DMC]

3 hours ago, Ormond said:

Here is a 2014 chart from Pew which does that, showing that the Silent Generation is the only group where a majority are Republican or Republican-leaning.

Thanks for the link, that's a really cool breakdown.  I think the most interesting thing there is that Gen-Xers were R+5 (!) in 1994 when they were young.  Didn't know nor expect that.  It's also telling that the same firm shows a Republican shift among Boomers from 2014 to 2016 (47-41 to 44-44).  This is useful supportive evidence for Trump's emergence.

3 hours ago, Ormond said:

And here is a report from Gallup in 2014, showing that those born between 1931 and 1945, and between 1957 and 1970, were the two most "Republican" groups --again showing that the later Baby Boomers (and early Gen Xers) are more Republican than the early Baby Boomers:

Yeah the Gallup link demonstrates there's a very strong - and specific - Democratic subgroup within Boomers (which is reflected in the PEW link as well):

Quote

As noted in previous Gallup research, Democrats also perform relatively well among baby boomers aged 60 to 63. Democrats have a seven- to eight-percentage-point average advantage among this group of Americans who were born between about 1950 and 1953, and who came of age during the late 1960s and early 1970s. The Democratic Party does slightly less well among younger baby boomers, those aged 57 to 59, while the oldest baby boomers, aged 64 to 67, are much less Democratic than other boomers in their party identification.

I personally find that amusing as my parents are right in that 1950-53 group.  This link also indicates younger Gen-Xers have similar party ID patterns to Millennials; apparently it's when you get into your forties that you lose your soul.

[DMC]

40 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

People here and in the media have talked about how quiet Democrats have been in reaction to Trump’s tariff moves and his attacks on NAFTA and, effectively, allies. I just shake my head in surprise. The Democrats have proclaimed themselves as being anti-free trade in many ways (‘fair trade, yes’). Clinton campaigned on changing NAFTA too. It’s just that when Democrats are in power they forget about those positions because trade has been really really good for the US.

I don't think it's that Dems "forget" about those positions when they take power, it's just that pretty much every Democratic president has been a free-trader (in fact, pretty much every single president since FDR has been a free-trader).  Hell, after the health-care failure, the only big victory Bill Clinton had early in his term was getting NAFTA passed, an agreement negotiated by his Republican predecessor and passed with more Republican than Democratic support in Congress.

[Fez]

4 hours ago, Ormond said:

There is data separating people out by specific year of birth. 

Here is a 2014 chart from Pew which does that, showing that the Silent Generation is the only group where a majority are Republican or Republican-leaning. Though Boomers are less Democratic than Millennials, on that chart the sharpest generational difference is almost right at the traditional boundary between Silents and Boomers -- actually about a year before, with it looking to me like those born in 1944 average out way more Republican than those born in 1945:

http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/30/a-different-look-at-generations-and-partisanship/

And on that chart the second half of the Baby Boom definitely averages out less Democratic than the first half.

And here is a report from Gallup in 2014, showing that those born between 1931 and 1945, and between 1957 and 1970, were the two most "Republican" groups --again showing that the later Baby Boomers (and early Gen Xers) are more Republican than the early Baby Boomers:

http://news.gallup.com/poll/172439/party-identification-varies-widely-across-age-spectrum.aspx

That all makes sense to me. I can't imagine how anyone coming of political age in 1969 could be conservative (though clearly many did), and would likely have views quite different from those a bit older, who already had their beliefs solidified, or younger, who missed out on directly experiencing and understanding what was going on.

I'm curious about the divide between 1944 and 1945. I imagine the big difference is in the parents, most people who were born in 1944 would've had a father either ineligible to serve in the military (too old, too young, disabled, etc.) or who had an exemption to serving in the military; whereas in 1945, there'd start to be a lot of veterans as fathers. But what impact did that have on child development?

[Maithanet]

15 minutes ago, Fez said:

I'm curious about the divide between 1944 and 1945. I imagine the big difference is in the parents, most people who were born in 1944 would've had a father either ineligible to serve in the military (too old, too young, disabled, etc.) or who had an exemption to serving in the military; whereas in 1945, there'd start to be a lot of veterans as fathers. But what impact did that have on child development?

Would there?  That would make sense if the dividing line were 1945 and 1945.  Not a lot of veterans were home by April '44-March 1945.

It is a curious phenomenon. 

[Mudguard]

2 hours ago, The Wedge said:

Aluminum cans.

http://www.grubstreet.com/2018/03/beer-industry-claims-aluminum-tariff-could-destroy-20000-jobs.html

If the increased cost of aluminum cans is passed to consumers, it will only raise prices by a cent or two per can.  For a beer producer that sells millions of cans of beer, the aggregate cost increase can be significant, but from a consumer standpoint the cost increase should be pretty small.  

[Fragile Bird]

I just saw a CNN headline from the WH saying Trump won an arbitration case against Stormy Daniels. I could not stay to watch more. Is this her bid to declare her NDA void?

[Jace, Extat]

12 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

If the increased cost of aluminum cans is passed to consumers, it will only raise prices by a cent or two per can.  For a beer producer that sells millions of cans of beer, the aggregate cost increase can be significant, but from a consumer standpoint the cost increase should be pretty small.  

What a comprehensively ignorant statement. Think of how many things are made with Aluminum and Steel, dude. There's a reason we import at a deficit. It's because we use those materials at a prodigious rate. EVERYTHING WILL RISE in price. Cars, buildings, ships, tanks, guns, bullets, cars again, cans, sheet metal, computer parts

etc...

8 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I just saw a CNN headline from the WH saying Trump won an arbitration case against Stormy Daniels. I could not stay to watch more. Is this her bid to declare her NDA void?

Sounds like Cohen set up an arbitration meeting she wasn't aware of in NV then 'won' 'cause she wasn't there.

[Martell Spy]

6 minutes ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

What a comprehensively ignorant statement. Think of how many things are made with Aluminum and Steel, dude. There's a reason we import at a deficit. It's because we use those materials at a prodigious rate. EVERYTHING WILL RISE in price. Cars, buildings, ships, tanks, guns, bullets, cars again, cans, sheet metal, computer parts

etc...

Sounds like Cohen set up an arbitration meeting she wasn't aware of in NV then 'won' 'cause she wasn't there.

Wilbur Ross was making the can argument using soup cans. It only add 3 cents per can, we are fine people!

I would like to see Larry David as Bernie Sanders take up the soup can/trade argument. ☺