U.S Politics; The Price of Steele

[SeanF]

1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

Do we have that from anyone other than Dean Heller?  I hardly think he's a credible source on this. 

It was posted on The Hill.

[Maithanet]

4 minutes ago, SeanF said:

It was posted on The Hill.

You mean this? Because that's all I see, and it's just quoting Heller.

[Rippounet]

20 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Justice Anthony Kennedy is retiring in the Summer.

Still rumor at this point. More importantly, the timing is critical.

"Summer" lasts until the 22nd of September. The nomination process takes a bit over two months (10 weeks for Gorsuch). The Senate will only work for four weeks in September and four weeks in October before the mid-terms. There are four additional weeks in July-August... which is why the timing is so important.

See where I'm going with this?

Kennedy retiring "in the summer" might mean that he has decided to ensure that the confirmation vote for his replacement will have to be taken after the midterms... or not. But without a precise date we can't say what the consequences will be.

Edit: I think Trump having to nominate another SCOTUS justice with a Democratic Senate would be poetic justice, wouldn't it? And Kennedy might want to be replaced by a moderate rather than have to wait for the results of the 2020 elections.

[aceluby]

13 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Still rumor at this point. More importantly, the timing is critical.

"Summer" lasts until the 22nd of September. The nomination process takes a bit over two months (10 weeks for Gorsuch). The Senate will only work for four weeks in September and four weeks in October before the mid-terms. There are four additional weeks in July-August... which is why the timing is so important.

See where I'm going with this?

Kennedy retiring "in the summer" might mean that he has decided to ensure that the confirmation vote for his replacement will have to be taken after the midterms... or not. But without a precise date we can't say what the consequences will be.

Edit: I think Trump having to nominate another SCOTUS justice with a Democratic Senate would be poetic justice, wouldn't it? And Kennedy might want to be replaced by a moderate rather than have to wait for the results of the 2020 elections.

Or he's trying to help the GOP so they can use it as a campaign tool like they did two years ago to get Trump elected.

[Jace, Extat]

14 minutes ago, aceluby said:

Or he's trying to help the GOP so they can use it as a campaign tool like they did two years ago to get Trump elected.

That pretty clearly is the game. Settle in for three more years of getting punched in the cunt by reconciliation folks.

[TheKitttenGuard]

34 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Still rumor at this point. More importantly, the timing is critical.

"Summer" lasts until the 22nd of September. The nomination process takes a bit over two months (10 weeks for Gorsuch). The Senate will only work for four weeks in September and four weeks in October before the mid-terms. There are four additional weeks in July-August... which is why the timing is so important.

See where I'm going with this?

Kennedy retiring "in the summer" might mean that he has decided to ensure that the confirmation vote for his replacement will have to be taken after the midterms... or not. But without a precise date we can't say what the consequences will be.

Edit: I think Trump having to nominate another SCOTUS justice with a Democratic Senate would be poetic justice, wouldn't it? And Kennedy might want to be replaced by a moderate rather than have to wait for the results of the 2020 elections.

They had all the time for Gorsuch, they will jam someone through if they need to.

[Mexal]

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

Justice Anthony Kennedy is retiring in the Summer.

And that is that. Good bye forward movement. 

[Rippounet]

49 minutes ago, aceluby said:

Or he's trying to help the GOP so they can use it as a campaign tool like they did two years ago to get Trump elected.

Sure, he's still a conservative after all. But to be fair, if the Democrats don't take the Senate in the midterms there's nothing much Kennedy can do about it. It's not like you can expect him to go as far as to wait for a Democratic president to sit in the White House to retire, right?

If Kennedy lets the elections decide who replaces him, it's already something. If he doesn't, well... the Supreme Court was a problem as soon as Trump got elected anyway.

[LongRider]

Damn, only two members of the SCOTUS is under age 60; Elena Kagan and Neil Gorsuch.  Every one else is either in their 60's, 70's or 80's!  There could be more retirements or loss of members due other factors due to age before 2020.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States

8 minutes ago, Mexal said:

And that is that. Good bye forward movement. 

We are all so very fucked.

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, Rippounet said:

Still rumor at this point. More importantly, the timing is critical.

"Summer" lasts until the 22nd of September. The nomination process takes a bit over two months (10 weeks for Gorsuch). The Senate will only work for four weeks in September and four weeks in October before the mid-terms. There are four additional weeks in July-August... which is why the timing is so important.

See where I'm going with this?

Kennedy retiring "in the summer" might mean that he has decided to ensure that the confirmation vote for his replacement will have to be taken after the midterms... or not. But without a precise date we can't say what the consequences will be.

Edit: I think Trump having to nominate another SCOTUS justice with a Democratic Senate would be poetic justice, wouldn't it? And Kennedy might want to be replaced by a moderate rather than have to wait for the results of the 2020 elections.

I expect the House will flip, but the Senate will remain Republican, given the States that are being contested.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Martell Spy said:

It comes down to NK will not rid themselves of nukes if U.S. does not withdraw all troops, a condition no President will accept, even Trump.

So, we are just kicking the can and one day NK will have nukes. This is bad, but it is an improvement if a President other than Trump is dealing with it. I would also like to live another 5 years.

Trump might accept that because he has no historical perspective and he’s shown he’s willing to ignore his generals if their opinions don’t suit his mood.

That said, NK will never give up their nuclear program. Our behavior in Libya all but guaranteed that.  

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I’m not sure if you guys are reading the strategy correctly. The Senate breakdown is 51-49, and two Republican Senators are really sick. That could moderate Trump’s pick. I still believe Republicans will make gains in the Senate, so having more wiggle room next year could lead to an even more conservative nominee.    

[Rippounet]

10 minutes ago, Nasty LongRider said:

Damn, only two members of the SCOTUS is under age 60; Elena Kagan and Neil Gorsuch.  Every one else is either in their 60's, 70's or 80's!  There could be more retirements or loss of members due other factors due to age before 2020.

Yeah, both Ginsburg and Breyer should have retired during Obama's first term. They badly screwed up. But that's nothing new, everyone thought so when Ginsburg had to fight cancer.

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Trump might accept that because he has no historical perspective and he’s shown he’s willing to ignore his generals if their opinions don’t suit his mood.

That said, NK will never give up their nuclear program. Our behavior in Libya all but guaranteed that.  

I agree with that.  It is really weird that the media is spinning this as a win for the Administration.  It is not.  It is a win for North Korea, to meet with the US President as equals, and to buy a bit more time to work on their ICBMs.  And literally every piece of evidence from NK in the past 20 years is that they will never give up their nuclear program.  They can say they will (and they've said it in the past), but I'm extremely doubtful that just upping sanctions a bit has caused a complete 180 on the issue. 

[LongRider]

3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

It is a win for North Korea, to meet with the US President as equals, and to buy a bit more time to work on their ICBMs.  And literally every piece of evidence from NK in the past 20 years is that they will never give up their nuclear program.

Agree.  Trump and Fox News will be bellowing before and after the meeting what a 'win' for Trump this is, how America is So. Much. Safer.  Meanwhile, NK sits on their nukes and out plays Trump at every move.  

[Mexal]

18 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I’m not sure if you guys are reading the strategy correctly. The Senate breakdown is 51-49, and two Republican Senators are really sick. That could moderate Trump’s pick. I still believe Republicans will make gains in the Senate, so having more wiggle room next year could lead to an even more conservative nominee.    

We'll see. 

[Fragile Bird]

It's not only a win for North Korea, it's a win-win.

There is no Korean War peace treaty. The reason other presidents would not meet with North Korean dictators is that the US refused to recognize the regime as legitimate until an agreement was reached.

Whatever Trump might say afterwards, he will be the president who legitimized North Korea. That's a genie you can't put back in the bottle.

So North Korea has a big win there, and no matter what the outcome of the talks is, they have a win. If they get any easing of restrictions against them lifted, big win. If the talks blow up, big win, it was the fault of the US.

Trump has at least a win here, because he ignored the Republicans in government who demanded conditions be met before any meeting take place, showing his supporters he's a rebel who will cut through the bullshit to get the job done. Whether he can hold on to that win will depend on whether or not he does something stupid and positions revert to where they were before, but worse.

[Maithanet]

On Kennedy, hasn't he said that he wants a moderate-ish pick for the SC to replace him?  I don't know if he can get Trump to make a deal like that, since it would be based on trust, and Trump is not trustworthy.  I don't know if he is persuadable to wait until 2021 to resign.  That's a long time. 

[Shryke]

25 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I’m not sure if you guys are reading the strategy correctly. The Senate breakdown is 51-49, and two Republican Senators are really sick. That could moderate Trump’s pick. I still believe Republicans will make gains in the Senate, so having more wiggle room next year could lead to an even more conservative nominee.    

Why would it moderate Trump's pick?

They already stole a seat with fucking illegitimate justice Gorsuch. They still have the same 50 votes that they did for that. They do not give a fuck and will nominate another Gorsuch and pass him through.

If this is true, y'all are FUCKED for the foreseeable future. Ya had yer chance in November 2016 and ya decided to vote for Jill Stein and stay home instead.

[Shryke]

1 minute ago, Fragile Bird said:

It's not only a win for North Korea, it's a win-win.

There is no Korean War peace treaty. The reason other presidents would not meet with North Korean dictators is that the US refused to recognize the regime as legitimate until an agreement was reached.

Whatever Trump might say afterwards, he will be the president who legitimized North Korea. That's a genie you can't put back in the bottle.

So North Korea has a big win there, and no matter what the outcome of the talks is, they have a win. If they get any easing of restrictions against them lifted, big win. If the talks blow up, big win, it was the fault of the US.

Trump has at least a win here, because he ignored the Republicans in government who demanded conditions be met before any meeting take place, showing his supporters he's a rebel who will cut through the bullshit to get the job done. Whether he can hold on to that win will depend on whether or not he does something stupid and positions revert to where they were before, but worse.

That's a win for Trump, not a win for the US.