NBA 2018 - Soup's on!

[briantw]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Sure as hell applied to the postseason when he was a college coach. 

It's a lot easier to get hot for a few games in college and advance in a single-elimination tournament than it is to consistently win multiple seven game series.  I also think he takes advantage of the fact that most coaches don't do a lot of specific game-planning in the regular season, so when his guys play their hardest every night, they pick up a lot of wins against teams that are as good or better but are just not as engaged because it's not the playoffs.  You could factor that in to his college post-season record as well, as in the tournament coaches don't often have a lot of time to game plan, especially compared to the NBA where good teams will almost always have several days or even a week off prior to a series.

What I do know is that Stevens appeared to get out-coached by Ty Lue multiple times in the post-season, and Ty Lue is an idiot.  And that's not just the LeBron effect.  The Cavs just had the perfect game plan for the Celtics and beat them easily.

Personally, I think Stevens is a system coach.  He's a great motivator and he has a nice system in place and he gets his guys to buy into it, but ultimately system coaches tend to get bounced in May when star power trumps everything.

[Jaime L]

37 minutes ago, briantw said:

It's a lot easier to get hot for a few games in college and advance in a single-elimination tournament than it is to consistently win multiple seven game series.  I also think he takes advantage of the fact that most coaches don't do a lot of specific game-planning in the regular season, so when his guys play their hardest every night, they pick up a lot of wins against teams that are as good or better but are just not as engaged because it's not the playoffs.  You could factor that in to his college post-season record as well, as in the tournament coaches don't often have a lot of time to game plan, especially compared to the NBA where good teams will almost always have several days or even a week off prior to a series.

What I do know is that Stevens appeared to get out-coached by Ty Lue multiple times in the post-season, and Ty Lue is an idiot.  And that's not just the LeBron effect.  The Cavs just had the perfect game plan for the Celtics and beat them easily.

Personally, I think Stevens is a system coach.  He's a great motivator and he has a nice system in place and he gets his guys to buy into it, but ultimately system coaches tend to get bounced in May when star power trumps everything.

Eh, Isaiah Thomas, Boston's only star...and a guy who was only a star because of Stevens' system played all of two games at way less than 100% that series and scored all of 19 points total for the series. A guy who averaged nearly 30 ppg during the season. Anyone who is able to coach two legit superstars in Lebron and Kyrie and a third star in Love against that will look like a genius in comparison. 

Because, yeah, the team with the better stars almost always wins in the postseason. But as far as maximizing performance of a team without a ton of stars, I've seen few demonstrably better than Stevens. 

[briantw]

9 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

Eh, Isaiah Thomas, Boston's only star...and a guy who was only a star because of Stevens' system played all of two games at way less than 100% that series and scored all of 19 points total for the series. A guy who averaged nearly 30 ppg during the season. Anyone who is able to coach two legit superstars in Lebron and Kyrie and a third star in Love against that will look like a genius in comparison. 

Because, yeah, the team with the better stars almost always wins in the postseason. But as far as maximizing performance of a team without a ton of stars, I've seen few demonstrably better than Stevens. 

Even if Thomas had been 100%, I don't think it would have made a difference.  That Celtics team was just easy to stop with proper game-planning.  They would have lost to the Bulls in a round one embarrassment if Rondo hadn't gotten hurt.  

The team this year is better, but they still have the same issue right now...they have one star and he doesn't play defense.  I don't think a team's best player can be offense-only without putting a serious limitation on the team's overall ceiling. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

6 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Sure as hell applied to the postseason when he was a college coach. 

And his record in the NBA postseason is fine, with a very small sample.  He's won every series his team was favored in, and lost every series it wasn't.  I guess if you're being harsh you could say the #5 celtics should have beaten the #4 Hawks, but that's really it.  The 2015 and 2017 Celtics teams were completely overmatched. 

Well he was 2-8 going into last season, and he went 9-9 last year. I agree that it's fair to say that he's won when he should have and mostly lost when he should have, but as others have said, I think he maximizes his talent all year while other teams coast at times. Once everyone cranks it up in the postseason, Boston looks a lot less competitive than they did in the regular season. 

[Slurktan]

So Tywin's right, Toronto really has no chance vs Houston in a potential finals matchup.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

On 3/9/2018 at 9:21 PM, Slurktan said:

So Tywin's right, Toronto really has no chance vs Houston in a potential finals matchup.

Single game samples don’t mean much. Toronto won by three at home, and they lost three of the four quarters. Minnesota just beat Golden State by six. Should I assume that means they can beat them in a seven game series? L.A. beat Cleveland by 14 I think. Does that mean they’d smoke them in a seven game series?

[Slurktan]

6 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Single game samples don’t mean much. Toronto won by three at home, and they lost three of the four quarters. Minnesota just beat Golden State by six. Should I assume that means they can beat them in a seven game series? L.A. beat Cleveland by 14 I think. Does that mean they’d smoke them in a seven game series?

It's a single game sample? They've played twice.  You are absolutely right because other than head to head matchups where both teams are playing hard there is lots to determine where someone has no chance right, such as you saying the Raptors have no chance vs Houston?  Like do you enjoy being hypocritical or just not realize what you are doing?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Slurktan said:

It's a single game sample? They've played twice.  You are absolutely right because other than head to head matchups where both teams are playing hard there is lots to determine where someone has no chance right, such as you saying the Raptors have no chance vs Houston?  Like do you enjoy being hypocritical or just not realize what you are doing?

I'm not sure how I'm being hypocritical here. Most analysts will tell you that you're making a mistake to over rely on small sample sizes. It's two games in the regular season. That doesn't translate to potential playoff success. Toronto is having a really nice season, but I give them no chance to beat Houston or Golden State in a seven game series if they're healthy. 

[DireWolfSpirit]

Noone can really say for certain what the health of any teams will be in the NBA post season after 100 games of going full tilt boogie on the hardwood ( season+preseason ). Thats why the whole qualifyer of "if healthy" is meaningless. We should just presume every team will be banged up by the post season and all sorts of intangibles will be in play (experience, coaching strength, style of play/chemistry, matchups, rotation depth, etc).

Its only decided on the court the day of that game, having won 65-70 games during the season is still no guarantee you wont get bounced in the post season if you end up on the wrong side of a few of those factors I mentioned. Thats why I stay firmly in the camp of skeptcs that it'll be GS or Houston in a cakewalk this year. I'm not at all convinced that the WC will take the Finals this year.

[Sour Billy Tipton]

I may have turned the page too early.  He may come back, this is the best he's looked since Summer League.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

He's still got that weird hitch at the release point. If he short circuits at the line again, he'll be back to square one. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

@Maithanet, @Jaime L,

Looks like we do battle tonight! 

[Sour Billy Tipton]

15 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

He's still got that weird hitch at the release point. If he short circuits at the line again, he'll be back to square one. 

I don't think there was much of a hitch.  The slight delay in the baseline fadeaway was likely him respecting the contesting defense.  You can see his shot is fluid on his step-back jumper by the elbow.

[Sour Billy Tipton]

Credit to the Pacers.  They showed up @Philly.  Oladipo and Boddanovic went a combined 5/32 and Indiana still owned the lead and pace of the game ALL NIGHT.

They own; the better record, the season series, and the better team this year.

[Jaime L]

4 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

@Maithanet, @Jaime L,

Looks like we do battle tonight! 

Congrats on the series split.  

I will say, the Wizards were up 8 in the 4th quarter when I had to run.No idea what happened after that point. Looked like a 15-0 run or some shit. 

[IamMe90]

10 hours ago, Sour Billy Tipton said:

Credit to the Pacers.  They showed up @Philly.  Oladipo and Boddanovic went a combined 5/32 and Indiana still owned the lead and pace of the game ALL NIGHT.

They own; the better record, the season series, and the better team this year.

I've only recently gotten into basketball, so my knowledge is limited, but I have watched a fair amount of games this season and I'll say that you guys seem like you'll be a serious threat to the East next year if you can get the turnovers under wraps. 21 turn overs this game, and still only down by 3 in the end! The turnover numbers are insane. 

[Sour Billy Tipton]

4 hours ago, IamMe90 said:

you guys seem like you'll be a serious threat to the East next year if you can get the turnovers under wraps. 21 turn overs this game, and still only down by 3 in the end! The turnover numbers are insane. 

Yeah, having Embiid and Simmons provides a ton of hope for the future.  The turnovers are a problem but they will always be in the bottom 10 as long as Brown is the head coach.  That's not a slight, it's just a fact based upon cause and effect of a high passing offense:

Team Assists          Team Turnovers

1. GS                  28.  GS
2. N.O.                23.  N.O.
3. Phila               30.  Phila

Experience is always the supposed solution that'll eliminate nights like yesterday.  However, they have no one besides Simmons and McConnell--backup PG-- who can put the ball on the floor.  And neither one of those two can shoot from outside.  The reason why they traded up for Fultz is because he was exactly what they required when he came out of Washington.  A guard who can bring some Isolation plays because he's shown ability to shoot from the outside, midrange, and finish at the rim.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

22 hours ago, Sour Billy Tipton said:

I don't think there was much of a hitch.  The slight delay in the baseline fadeaway was likely him respecting the contesting defense.  You can see his shot is fluid on his step-back jumper by the elbow.

It still looked like he was hesitating at the end of his shot. It's not as bad as it was before, but it's still there.

18 hours ago, Jaime L said:

Congrats on the series split.  

I will say, the Wizards were up 8 in the 4th quarter when I had to run.No idea what happened after that point. Looked like a 15-0 run or some shit. 

KAT happened. He's on the verge of being a top 5 player.

9 hours ago, IamMe90 said:

I've only recently gotten into basketball, so my knowledge is limited, but I have watched a fair amount of games this season and I'll say that you guys seem like you'll be a serious threat to the East next year if you can get the turnovers under wraps. 21 turn overs this game, and still only down by 3 in the end! The turnover numbers are insane. 

Philly's not ready yet, but they will be in a few years, and they'll be the favorites in the East if that's where LeBron goes. It's rumored that they're one of the four locations he's considering. 

[Jaime L]

Anyone else notice Julius Randle is really freaking good now? He doesn't have the modern NBA skillset, dude is an old school 4, but with everyone going small, he just destroys everyone in the paint. What he did to Larry Nance was unspeakable. He's also really good defensively and I kinda like that he's kinda unhinged and angry all game every game now. You need those guys who add toughness. 

The other thing is the Lakers are also good now. Brandon Ingram is on his way to being very good. Kuzma can be a rotation guy on a championship team. Lonzo Ball fills up the box score every game (imagine how good he could be if he could shoot at all). Brook Lopez is useful and I.T. is finally starting to look like his old form. They've smacked down a number of playoff teams over the last couple months. This is like a 45-50 win team the way they're playing right now.

So what's interesting is they're obviously going to make their run for Lebron and George. And the only way they'll fit is if they give up Randle which isn't the no brainer it once was but you still do it if you can get both (and if Randle leaves I'm really curious where he goes). But think this also puts into play a greater possibility the Lakers just get one big fish. You could plug, say, Paul George in and re-sign I.T. or Lopez be a a strong, but non-title contending team,going forward. 

The turd in the punch bowl is just whether Lonzo can become a good shooter. If I'm Lebron and I'm considering the Lakers, that's one of my biggest hesitations. It's the single biggest cap on this team's upside. 

 

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Hehe: