UK Politics: The Beast From The East

[SeanF]

On ‎3‎/‎18‎/‎2018 at 0:31 PM, Spockydog said:

By 2022, many people who voted Tory in 2017 will be in the ground, with tree roots growing through the holes where their eyes used to be.

That has always been the case.

[Zorral]

Question: ultimately won't the EU decide?  The EU isn't going to allow the UK to dither about staying or going and negotiating the terms of either forever.  The other members have their own nations' and the EU's welfare to consider.

From the outside the level of the UK's arrogance in this seems at least at the levels of how the USA might regard their privilege about anything to do with other nations.

[Zorral]

Then there's this -- is it real concern or is it just playing to the gallery?

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/mar/19/no-10-very-concerned-over-facebook-data-breach-by-cambridge-analytica

[mankytoes]

15 hours ago, Shryke said:

No clue wtf you are on about here. Strong convictions to do stupid and/or terrible things are not a plus. I demonstrated this by listing examples of people with strong convictions who are terrible, terrible people. It's a straightforward logical argument.

Corbyn's adherence to his shitty, stupid positions on Brexit if nothing else make him a shitty leader. I don't know why you'd argue that him deciding to hold to "Hey, maybe we should set the UK on fire just for kicks" should be admired. Pushing back on Brexit doesn't make him spineless, it would make him not a shitty moronic political leader.

Frankly, you've got few choices here. Either he's pro-Brexit and thus a moron or he's anti-Brexit but doesn't want to actually say or do anything about that and thus he's spineless or it doesn't matter which and his only concern is letting the Tories crash and burn along with the UK when Brexit happens so that he can win the next election and thus he's a terrible terrible person

Also, Trump absolutely has convictions. White Supremacy, trade protectionism and "law and order" being the most obvious political positions he has held for decades now. 

Godwins Law is a reference to how people like to bring up Hitler/Nazis whenever possible on the internet. You did it so soon I thought it might have been self referential.

But you aren't actually making any arguments against Brexit, you're just throwing out a load of insults. Maybe people like Corbyn actually have legitimate reasons to view the EU as an unsuccessful, inefficient, undemocratic organisation? I guess it makes sense that Europhiles have no problem in straight up ignoring referendums, seeing as the EU itself is a big fan of that.

The third option would be that maybe not everyone who doesn't agree with you is a moron, and your predictions aren't factual representations of the future.

I don't see much evidence that his apparant white supremacy is more than a vote winner. Protectionism maybe, but that's just self interest really, and "law and order" is much too vague, I mean apart from anarchists, we all believe in that, right?

8 hours ago, mormont said:

With regard to Corbyn and the election, I could (and almost did) go into detail about how and why the idea that Labour's performance was a personal triumph for Corbyn isn't supported by the evidence, complete with citations, but honestly that would just get us into a serious derail. Suffice to say that, to the extent that the result lent Corbyn some momentum (heh), he's squandered it. Labour are level at best in the polls, Corbyn's approval ratings are underwater (comparable to Theresa May's), and his political positions are unclear (can anyone explain what a 'jobs first Brexit' is or how it's different to the Tory position?)

What no one can deny is that he's seriously exceeded expectations from inside or outside his party. He's now being criticised for being "level at best" with the Tories, when that impossible at one point. 

A lot of people say he's got such a weak opponent, but it's a little unfair on May. Sure, she's a charisma vaccum, but she's dealing with a tiny majority, propped up by some Irish crazies (ok, partly her fault) and several totally self interested colleagues, Boris only being the worst.

[mormont]

1 hour ago, mankytoes said:

What no one can deny is that he's seriously exceeded expectations from inside or outside his party.

I can deny it. I do deny it.

Unless of course the case you're making is that expectations of Corbyn were so low that they could not help but be exceeded, because it simply wasn't possible to undershoot them.

[Slick Mongoose]

That's no way to talk about our next Prime Minister.

[Werthead]

11 hours ago, mormont said:

With regard to Corbyn and the election, I could (and almost did) go into detail about how and why the idea that Labour's performance was a personal triumph for Corbyn isn't supported by the evidence, complete with citations, but honestly that would just get us into a serious derail. Suffice to say that, to the extent that the result lent Corbyn some momentum (heh), he's squandered it. Labour are level at best in the polls, Corbyn's approval ratings are underwater (comparable to Theresa May's), and his political positions are unclear (can anyone explain what a 'jobs first Brexit' is or how it's different to the Tory position?)

All of which is to say, sorry, I don't think Photoshopping his hat has really undermined what would otherwise be a winning position.

At this juncture, putting any stock at all in the polls which got the 2015 and 2017 General Elections wrong, the 2016 referendum wrong and the US Presidential Election wrong is a fool's errand.

[Mr Fixit]

2 hours ago, mormont said:

I can deny it. I do deny it.

Unless of course the case you're making is that expectations of Corbyn were so low that they could not help but be exceeded, because it simply wasn't possible to undershoot them.

Has Corbyn killed your cat? In fact, has Corbyn killed all the cats of all the "liberal" lefties? 

[Werthead]

3 hours ago, Zorral said:

Then there's this -- is it real concern or is it just playing to the gallery?

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/mar/19/no-10-very-concerned-over-facebook-data-breach-by-cambridge-analytica

This is interesting. There's very strict new EU-wide laws coming into play in May called GDPR which is going to seriously curtail the power of digital platforms to gather your data and use it without keeping you informed of it every step of the way, with increased powers for individuals to have their data wiped, and it'll be interesting to see how Google and Facebook react to it since it would seem to hinder them being able to use your data anonymously behind the scenes.

[Zorral]

9 minutes ago, Werthead said:

This is interesting. There's very strict new EU-wide laws coming into play in May called GDPR which is going to seriously curtail the power of digital platforms to gather your data and use it without keeping you informed of it every step of the way, with increased powers for individuals to have their data wiped, and it'll be interesting to see how Google and Facebook react to it since it would seem to hinder them being able to use your data anonymously behind the scenes.

And don't leave Twitter out of this mess!  And Youtube!

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Just now, Zorral said:

And don't leave Twitter out of this mess!  And Youtube!

Youtube belongs to Google if I am not mistaken. So he didn't leave it out. I am no tsure about twitter, but didn't Zuckerberg buy that a few years ago, or am I mixing things up here.

[Shryke]

4 hours ago, mankytoes said:

Godwins Law is a reference to how people like to bring up Hitler/Nazis whenever possible on the internet. You did it so soon I thought it might have been self referential.

But you aren't actually making any arguments against Brexit, you're just throwing out a load of insults. Maybe people like Corbyn actually have legitimate reasons to view the EU as an unsuccessful, inefficient, undemocratic organisation? I guess it makes sense that Europhiles have no problem in straight up ignoring referendums, seeing as the EU itself is a big fan of that.

The third option would be that maybe not everyone who doesn't agree with you is a moron, and your predictions aren't factual representations of the future.

OMG, are you seriously trying to defend Brexit as a good idea? Is this where defending Corbyn has taken you? Seriously? You should take a hard look at where your argument has taken you. Some real self-reflection, ya know?

Read the news. Read any economic analysis. Nothing about Brexit is a good idea. They can't even figure out wtf to do about Northern Ireland. The whole thing is an economy crippling clusterfuck. Supporting Brexit because you have problems with the EU is like supporting burning your house down because you don't like the layout.

So we are again back at the same 3 options you tried to avoid here. Either Corbyn supports Brexit (idiot), doesn't but won't say (coward) or is just using the situation to get ahead (empty suit just out for power).

 

 

I don't see much evidence that his apparant white supremacy is more than a vote winner. Protectionism maybe, but that's just self interest really, and "law and order" is much too vague, I mean apart from anarchists, we all believe in that, right?

Yeah, you are profoundly ignorant then.  His white supremacy has been on display an inordinant amount of times, protectionism for sure since he's had a hard-on for tariffs and there is nothing vague aobut "law and order" politics if you actually knew anything about politics. Google it if nothing else. You will look less silly.

[mankytoes]

14 minutes ago, Shryke said:

OMG, are you seriously trying to defend Brexit as a good idea? Is this where defending Corbyn has taken you? Seriously? You should take a hard look at where your argument has taken you. Some real self-reflection, ya know?

Read the news. Read any economic analysis. Nothing about Brexit is a good idea. They can't even figure out wtf to do about Northern Ireland. The whole thing is an economy crippling clusterfuck. Supporting Brexit because you have problems with the EU is like supporting burning your house down because you don't like the layout.

So we are again back at the same 3 options you tried to avoid here. Either Corbyn supports Brexit (idiot), doesn't but won't say (coward) or is just using the situation to get ahead (empty suit just out for power).

Yeah, you are profoundly ignorant then.  His white supremacy has been on display an inordinant amount of times, protectionism for sure since he's had a hard-on for tariffs and there is nothing vague aobut "law and order" politics if you actually knew anything about politics. Google it if nothing else. You will look less silly.

How out of touch are you? You understand that this is something most people support? I've been eurosceptic for years, I've actually studied the EU, it's a flawed institution right from the foundation. There's no demos, it's a castle built on sand.

You're willing to dismiss the majority of British voters as "idiots", I think that tells me everything. Corbyn has very well founded eurosceptic views. But seeing as you've already decided that anyone who supports Brexit is an idiot, I'm not sure there's any point in going into them.

"Law and order" is just buzzwords. It isn't a conviction.

The most telling thing I learned about Trump was when wrestler Jesse Ventura was elected as Govenor of Minnesota on a populist platform. He said Trump was really interested, he got a chopper down, and wanted to talk- but only tactics. He wasn't talking policy at all, it was all about how to run a populist campaign, how to win. 

3 hours ago, mormont said:

I can deny it. I do deny it.

Unless of course the case you're making is that expectations of Corbyn were so low that they could not help but be exceeded, because it simply wasn't possible to undershoot them.

You think the majority of people thought he could catch the Tories in the polls? I don't think the majority of people in Labour thought that, lets alone the public overall.

[Liffguard]

12 minutes ago, mankytoes said:

I've been eurosceptic for years, I've actually studied the EU, it's a flawed institution right from the foundation.

Maybe so, but that's not an argument for leaving, in and of itself. It can be true that the EU is a deeply flawed institution, and also true that the UK will be much worse off outside of it. And even if in principle there's a path the UK could take that might lead to a better outcome outside the EU, it's absolutely clear that the current government is incapable of finding it, let alone following it. And that goes for Corbyn and the current Labour leadership too. I have yet to hear a single convincing roadmap for how to make Brexit work positively.

[mormont]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

At this juncture, putting any stock at all in the polls which got the 2015 and 2017 General Elections wrong, the 2016 referendum wrong and the US Presidential Election wrong is a fool's errand.

We're not putting stock in those polls, but the ones that reflect current opinion. And honestly, the argument that we should ignore polls we don't like because there was that one poll that time that was wrong is pretty much always weak sauce. Even if you take three or four examples.

1 hour ago, Mr Fixit said:

Has Corbyn killed your cat? In fact, has Corbyn killed all the cats of all the "liberal" lefties? 

No, not at all. I have no animus against Corbyn. I'd 100% rather he was PM than Theresa May. And I feel no need to demonstrate my left-wing credentials: I favour a lot of Corbyn's policies.

My opinion doesn't come from a place of personal animus. It comes from a clear-eyed assessment. I got tired of seeing people donning the rose-tinted specs when assessing Corbyn a long time ago. But they keep on doing it, because they want him to be something he's not. I'd like it if he were that thing too. But I can see that he isn't.

21 minutes ago, mankytoes said:

How out of touch are you? You understand that this is something most people support?

For certain definitions of 'most', 'people' and 'support'.

21 minutes ago, mankytoes said:

You think the majority of people thought he could catch the Tories in the polls?

It's a moot point, because he didn't actually do so.

[mankytoes]

39 minutes ago, Liffguard said:

Maybe so, but that's not an argument for leaving, in and of itself. It can be true that the EU is a deeply flawed institution, and also true that the UK will be much worse off outside of it. And even if in principle there's a path the UK could take that might lead to a better outcome outside the EU, it's absolutely clear that the current government is incapable of finding it, let alone following it. And that goes for Corbyn and the current Labour leadership too. I have yet to hear a single convincing roadmap for how to make Brexit work positively.

Well to give a fuller argument I don't see the EU as stable in the long term. I think that a central feature of the EU, and a central belief of the architects of the EU, is to keep increasing its' power, until it does eventually resemble a form of federal government for the continent, and I really think that is going to cause huge problems, and just like with the Eurozone crisis, you want to distance yourself from this fallout. There was "project fear" over leaving, I think we needed a big of a "project fear" about the long term dangers of remaining.

I really think that in the medium to long term this will be just like the Euro- we're gong to be glad that we stayed away.

I didn't vote for this administration and I don't have much faith in them, although I'm not a big May hater, I do think she is more principled than Cameron (ok, that's a bit of weak compliment, but I still think she's above those Bullingdon wankers). But with this Brexit vote, until it's too late, at least, we were never going to get another one. So as a eurosceptic, I really didn't feel it was an option to vote to Remain, in the hopes we'll be given another referendum at a more opportune moment. You've got to look long term and seize your oppontunities. We should have had the vote when Maastrict was signed, that was a major consitutional change. Labour had thirteen years to give us a vote, it was never going to happen.

You look at the other Western European nations outside the EU, obviously they are all extremely economically successful, it may take some time to find our own unique role as a part of Europe, I never saw this as a short term thing. Even if this government can't get it right, that doesn't mean future governments can't.

36 minutes ago, mormont said:

For certain definitions of 'most', 'people' and 'support'.

It's a moot point, because he didn't actually do so.

I think you're getting a little into semantics here. Whether it's slightly over or under half the country that support something, dismissing them as idiots is a bit embarrassing. I know people love to divide society into "us (i.e. smart people)" and "them (i.e. idiots) but it is never that simple. There were only two options on that referendum, but there were hundreds of motivations for voting, some smart, some less so, but those motivations certainly stretch across both sides. And it's the same at a general election, I vote Labour last time, but none of the parties were close to my beliefs, and the same is true for many Tory voters, that vote doesn't mean they endorse everything the party does and stands for.

I don't know what polling organisation you follow, but Labour certainly have been ahead in many polls by major organisations- http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

You can see there they have been ahead in the majority of recent ones tracked by that website.

[williamjm]

In other news, UKIP are apparently on the verge of bankruptcy, which is perhaps not too surprising given the chaos in their leadership and the fact that they now don't seem to have any reason for existing.

[Shryke]

1 hour ago, mankytoes said:

How out of touch are you? You understand that this is something most people support? I've been eurosceptic for years, I've actually studied the EU, it's a flawed institution right from the foundation. There's no demos, it's a castle built on sand.

You're willing to dismiss the majority of British voters as "idiots", I think that tells me everything. Corbyn has very well founded eurosceptic views. But seeing as you've already decided that anyone who supports Brexit is an idiot, I'm not sure there's any point in going into them.

Something most people support? Based on what? The original vote was basically a deadlock and polling suggests that has only changed further in favour of remain, as one would expect given dying Leavers. And that's only people who voted. Sorry dude but nothing supports this idea that most people support Brexit. At best, half of people support Brexit. And what they even think that means is certain up for debate. Hard Brexit? Soft Brexit? Some magical unicorn Brexit that can't exist? Who knows.

And yes, they are idiots. I'm sorry dude, but you should maybe pay attention to any analysis of what Brexit has gotten the UK so far and what it will get them in the future. It's bad. The negotiations are going badly because May's government is unable to align the expectations of the tabloid-driven idiots in their party and the actual realities of the situation. You can only deny reality for so long. At some point no matter how hard you scream that the wall isn't here, you crash. Anyone wanting Brexit is an ignorant idiot or a knowing idiot.

Euroscepticism has some valid points and some arguable points about the failures of the EU and god knows I've shit on the EU constantly for the reaction within the eurozone to the financial crisis of 2008 but Brexit is a fucking disaster.

 

Quote

"Law and order" is just buzzwords. It isn't a conviction.

Please dude, just stop. It hurts. I already know you are pompously ignorant on this issue, you don't need to keep showcasing it.

Law and Order is not a buzzword dude, it's a fundamental conservative political position within modern right-wing politics (at least in the anglosphere). Use your google, look it up.

[mormont]

9 hours ago, mankytoes said:

There was "project fear" over leaving, I think we needed a big of a "project fear" about the long term dangers of remaining.

OK, first of all, that was exactly what we did get, and have got non-stop for years. Decades. 

Second of all, 'project fear' is used in a derogatory way to suggest fears that have been exaggerated cynically to political ends. Again, that's what we have got, for decades, and it's why the referendum went the way it did. False fears whipped up for cynical political reasons. 

9 hours ago, mankytoes said:

I didn't vote for this administration and I don't have much faith in them, although I'm not a big May hater, I do think she is more principled than Cameron

I can't name a single principle that Theresa May possesses. If she has one, I've never seen it. Can you point to what these principles are? 

9 hours ago, mankytoes said:

I think you're getting a little into semantics here.

Yeah, the use of the phrase 'certain definitions' was a clue there. 

9 hours ago, mankytoes said:

Whether it's slightly over or under half the country that support something, dismissing them as idiots is a bit embarrassing.

Well, since you are in the group being dismissed as such, I can understand that view: nobody would appreciate that. And I, personally, wouldn't ever do that. But at the same time, you were guilty of dismissing the views of the other half of the country, albeit in a somewhat less insulting way, by talking about how 'this is something most people support', as if that should close down opposition. A major change that up to half the country have severe reservations about deserves more acknowledgement than that. 

9 hours ago, mankytoes said:

I don't know what polling organisation you follow, but Labour certainly have been ahead in many polls by major organisations- http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

You can see there they have been ahead in the majority of recent ones tracked by that website.

Again, for certain definitions of 'ahead', 'majority' and 'recent'. Since the election, Labour have not had a consistent poll lead greater than the margin of error, and have been level or behind in a number of polls. If you want to talk 'recent', in polls taken in February they were behind more than they were ahead. 

[SeanF]

I'm no fan of Corbyn at all (unsurprisingly).  But, I would have to admit that he did a lot better than almost anyone would have expected, during the campaign. Labour took a hammering in the Copeland by-election, and May's local elections, but he ended up making a gain of 30 seats.

14 hours ago, Werthead said:

At this juncture, putting any stock at all in the polls which got the 2015 and 2017 General Elections wrong, the 2016 referendum wrong and the US Presidential Election wrong is a fool's errand.

Polling wasn't very wrong.  It's just that in close-fought contests, getting within 2-3% of the final result isn't good enough, especially when you're using First Past the Post.  In terms of predicting overall vote share, US polls were in fact, spot on.  But, Trump overperformed in States he needed to win, in the Mid West, while Clinton overperformed in States that were already very safe for her, like California.

That said, I consider it credible that the Conservatives and Labour are about level-pegging.  Support for Brexit, and fear of Corbyn is keeping up Conservative support.  Dislike for the Conservatives is keeping up Labour support.