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US Politics: Stormy Weather Ahead


Fragile Bird

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If tomorrow Lamb is up by even just a couple of hundred votes, I wouldn't worry about the recount.  Generally speaking the votes have to be a hell of a lot closer, like 10, for a chance of a change in the result. Unless there were a lot of spoiled ballots, a significant number compared to the vote margin.

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Its crazy that we are talking about my Grandmother's home county on the national news.  I was up there is September of '16 and all I saw were Trump signs.  That we are even talking about a face which should have been such an easy win for Republicans is mind boggling. 

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1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

But we still have two precincts from Westmoreland county don't we?  It seems like those could easily give Saccone a 1,000 vote margin. 

He'd have to get over 60% of the mail-ins. He doesn't even have that much in Westmoreland which is his biggest margin.

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3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

But we still have two precincts from Westmoreland county don't we?  It seems like those could easily give Saccone a 1,000 vote margin. 

There's about 222,000 total votes cast, right?  And 593 precincts.  That's about 375 votes per precinct.  So, no, I don't think anything close to that margin is possible in two precincts.

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6 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

But we still have two precincts from Westmoreland county don't we?  It seems like those could easily give Saccone a 1,000 vote margin. 

Those two precincts tend to be a bit more Dem than others in Westmoreland. I've seen estimated around a +200 for Saccone in those two precincts.

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1 minute ago, dmc515 said:

There's about 222,000 total votes cast, right?  And 593 precincts.  That's about 375 votes per precinct.  So, no, I don't think anything close to that margin is possible in two precincts.

The largest precincts I'm seeing in the three other counties have over 1,000 votes cast, although you're right the average is closer to 3-400.  And that's total votes.  The largest margin I'm seeing (just scanning the map) is Peters D-1 in Washington County, which Saccone won by 262 votes.  So best case scenario for Saccone on those two precincts is probably +500, and +200 is a lot more likely. 

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2 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Those two precincts tend to be a bit more Dem than others in Westmoreland. I've seen estimated around a +200 for Saccone in those two precincts.

Wait, we know which precincts are left?  

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17 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

But we still have two precincts from Westmoreland county don't we?  It seems like those could easily give Saccone a 1,000 vote margin. 

Ok, 69,056 votes have been reported so far. There are 193 precincts. That's an average of 358 votes per precinct, maybe 716 votes. Maybe they are bigger precincts. But maybe that means 400 votes for Seccone.

eta: votes in Westmoreland

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2 minutes ago, Crazydog7 said:

Even if Lamb does win wouldn't a recount be automatic? 

No, that's only statewide.  I'm not sure what the recount procedures are for a congressional race.

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