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Politics stark robb


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7 hours ago, Kandrax said:

She suggested someone else, not only Mallisters.

 

Vale wasn't part of his kingdom. He couldn't send men to arrest her.

 

Joff would wanted, but final decision would be Tywin's

mayhaps she should of thought out a better answer then "anyone". as lord balon would see them as "greenlanders"  and thus would be more inclined to send back there head. forcing Robb to have to consider executing Theon in retaliation. more of a possibility depending on who was sent. ( his lord's bannermen would demand theon's head forceing robb to choice ether friendship and the vary likely outcome of losing allies or killing theon that would brake robb. as exacuting lord karstark nearly did) 

still lord tywin would demand too much for peace, it would just be a slower death.

6 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

One day you should really read the books, I think you'll like them.

Robb's away from Catelyn for most of the time he's at war, and rarely follows her advice. 

Robb sends Theon. It doesn't turn out great. That's actually quite an important plot point in the books. 

Your advice would have been for Robb to start a war with the Vale? You really shouldn't be having a go at Catelyn for bad advice.

A minor action with no consequence.

Because they were facing a war on three fronts, and losing at that point.

They had Jaime. Straight prisoner exchange, and mutually beneficial. Tywin was in no position at that point to make massive demands.

Yes, she should have been psychic.

 

 

and when cat is with Robb she give's blanket advise that can just as easily destroy the starks.

from what we are told most of the vale wants to fight for the starks. lysa and i believe two other house's are against it. if robb where to arrest and deposes his aunt and take sweetrobin as ward most of the valemen would see it as a just action (they can't be blind to her worsening mental state ) or a inevitable outcome.

minor? she win's no allies for robb and kicks off the war between brothers baratheon. ( definitely aids it ) 

then Tywin would of stoped fighting the starks when he received word that his son was captured. however it continued. their was never a agreed prisoner exchange. she told Brianna of tarth to take the kingslayer to kingslanding and what hold him at sword point? let him free and wait for them to say muh honor set the daughters free? ( did i miss some secret letters between cat and the queen?) she was banking on Tyrion for some reason betraying his family and setting sansa and arya free. why give up something that could control the north when you are fighting on three fronts?

lets play a game you are robb and want to win back the freys after you broke a vow/oath to wed one of lord walders daughters. what do you give/say to the freys to win them back?

also for what alternitive outcomes other then the red wedding we have 

- wait for half-ish of robbs army to pass under the twins and close shut the gates mid way slaughtering his army.

- taken robb stark alive and handed him over to the lannisters 

- poisoned his northern army

- denied robb passage across the trident trapping robb and his army in the riverlands.

its not about being psychic its about understanding the situation and the consequences of your choice. not some naive/arrogant delusion   ( sorry narcissistic was the wrong word )

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23 minutes ago, oakbloodthesap said:

from what we are told most of the vale wants to fight for the starks. lysa and i believe two other house's are against it. if robb where to arrest and deposes his aunt and take sweetrobin as ward most of the valemen would see it as a just action (they can't be blind to her worsening mental state ) or a inevitable outcome.

He can't just wander into the Vale and arrest its lady. That would require an invasion.

24 minutes ago, oakbloodthesap said:

minor? she win's no allies for robb and kicks off the war between brothers baratheon. ( definitely aids it ) 

I must have missed the part in the books where Renly and Stannis go to war with the Starks.

25 minutes ago, oakbloodthesap said:

then Tywin would of stoped fighting the starks when he received word that his son was captured. however it continued. their was never a agreed prisoner exchange. she told Brianna of tarth to take the kingslayer to kingslanding and what hold him at sword point? let him free and wait for them to say muh honor set the daughters free? ( did i miss some secret letters between cat and the queen?) she was banking on Tyrion for some reason betraying his family and setting sansa and arya free. why give up something that could control the north when you are fighting on three fronts?

You've missed my entire point there. I was saying Tywin would have been in no position to demand a high price for peace, as he was losing and his son was captured. He would have been highly motivated to come to reasonable terms.

27 minutes ago, oakbloodthesap said:

its not about being psychic its about understanding the situation and the consequences of your choice

So you saw what would happen ahead of time when you read the books? (I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt, as I'm not entirely certain you have read them) Well done.

None of the other characters did though, why you think it was Cat's responsibility to predict it I have no idea.

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not entirely i can argue that the starks could of made use of the black-fish's friendships at the gates to get a small band through to and up to the Eyrie to depose lady lysa and take sweetrobin as ward/hostage. unless Edmure can't just walk up to the gates and ask to meat with his sister. 

it was a diplomatic blunder, which resulted in stannis ( why does auto-correct want to make him satanist ) threaten robb that cat lets get under her skin. she even states "i have failed robb as i failed ned"  ( acok page 476 ) (it contributed)

why would the lannisters give up sansa and arya even if Jamie lannister was held captive either side couldn't do anything. robb's terms of peace where too high and the starks would keep the kingslayer, then cat go"s and "frees" Jamie thus undoing any chance of peace as why give up any of your hostages when they just handed over said hostage. ( what would have stoped the starks, after getting everything in the terms of peace from executing jamie lannister. ) 

 

 it's not about prediction. ( wait what did you feel on your first read?) it's robb broke a oath and two young freys where killed soon afterwords. then this arrogant shit shows up and asks for guest right o sure here mayhaps some sausage aswell?  it's not hard to believe that they would of striked there banners after he broke his oath. 

 

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2 hours ago, Kandrax said:

Sick? I have some sick theories.

i argued that robb starks love story could be false and robb might have forced himself on Jeyne westerling it's all in the young wolf of house stark.  why what are your "sick theories" about? also how do you go about getting a topic unlocked i wrote to a admin but no idea how long till? or even if that works any advise? 

ps sorry not trying to derail thread.

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On 3/24/2018 at 0:22 AM, Bernie Mac said:

I'm well aware of that quote, how does that contradict anything I have said? Robb turned allies who, like the majority of his allies, would eventually call it quits when the odds were too high, into enemies; enemies who now hated him and wanted revenge. 

It was a huge mistake, a political disaster that everyone could see. 

It explicitly contradicts what you said.  Robb could have married a Frey, kept to the terms of his agreement, and Walder Frey would have betrayed him.  That is, explicitly, what GRRM is saying.  Which means he did nothing to "turn" his allies, those allies were always going to turn on him if he wasn't winning.  And the only reason he wasn't winning were for reasons 100% outside his control.

There isn't even a basis for debate here.  The three main betrayals Robb experiences are completely outside of his ability to mitigate.  Rickard Karstark is going to go rogue the moment his sons die.  Bolton and Frey are both going to betray him the moment they think it's in their best interest, not, as you claim, when they're insulted (which, of course, Roose isn't).  Again, that isn't bad politics on Robb's part.

On 3/24/2018 at 0:22 AM, Bernie Mac said:

Him pointing out that  "it is likely he would have searched for some way to disentangle himself from a losing cause sooner or later" is in keeping with how GRRM thinks of vassals, as people with their own ambitions and limits rather than thoughtless drones willing to die for someone else's war. We see the Mootens, Vances, Brackens and Goodbrooks all betray and abandon House Tully in ASOS and GRRM goes over this subject in another SSM when he covers the Reach army distancing itself from the Targaryen cause

This also is explicitly false, and you're missing a huge part of the point of the series if you believe this.  A huge part of the politics of the series is that vassals DO fight for the Starks, that their legacy is so strong, and so positive, that there are many many people willing to fight until the point of death, for a losing/lost cause, to honor them.  The Blackfish at Riverrun.  The Blackwoods hold out despite Robb's death.  The mountain clansmen fighting for Stannis on behalf of "the Ned's little girl".  Those Houses don't "betray" House Tully, they are beaten and submit (Jonos Bracken is willing to honor Hoster Tully as late as his funeral, and only submits after the death of Robb).

This is deliberately meant to be contrasted to the "better" politicians like Tywin, whose legacy, like his corpse, literally starts rotting on his funeral bier.  In a social structure where politics are personal, personal legacy is more telling than whatever the status quo may be at the moment (because a future monarch/lord can reverse any policies at will).

On 3/24/2018 at 0:22 AM, Bernie Mac said:

Most of Robb's Riverland vassals (and likely some of his Northern ones too) would have betrayed him had there been no Red Wedding as the odds were insurmountable and he was unwilling to be pragmatic. Even when his own mother told him to sue for peace in ASOS he refused, he was going to fight on till he was dead and, realistically, many nobles, such as the Freys, would have abandoned his cause rather than share his fate. None of this changes the fact that Robb's lack of political foresight not only hastened their exit but turned them into bitter enemies. 

It's made explicit that Catelyn's plea to submit is directly related to her fears for her children, and not because of political/war aims.  It's explicitly in response to the fact that she now cannot get Sansa back either, and fears losing Robb.

In fact, the only nobles we hear speak of submitting are the Freys.  Because they aren't loyal.  Robb cannot bend the knee, because surrendering and accepting the consequences means putting that on his vassals as well - as he himself points out, they acclaimed him, and with that comes both the ability to dethrone him dethrone him, but also the obligation to support him.

In fact, we can ascertain that there is real political support for Robb's political agenda, because Maege Mormont and a Glover (I forget which one) carry his will, which will permit the North to carry on the fight.  House Mormont is firmly in support of the Stark cause in ADWD.  House Manderly continues to remain committed to the Stark cause.  Of the entire North, the only defections we see are the Boltons and the Karstarks.  Even Lady Dustin, for all her personal animus towards the Starks, isn't willing to forsake them entirely.  That isn't the picture of a king/family which alienated it's vassals by leading them down a road to ruin in the face of a "lost cause", it's the picture of the vast majority of the political community of the North remaining dedicated to the Starks and what they stood for, and the constant references to the Young Wolf as a tragic hero "who won every battle" underline that it means Robb as well as Ned.

On 3/24/2018 at 0:22 AM, Bernie Mac said:

eh? This was his mother's deal, his mother's political excellence, not Robb's. It was her decision to speak to the Freys and Robb, given as only a  week ago at Moat Cailin she had the power to send him back to Winterfell, this was down to her. Robb was not happy with the deal and clearly did not care to uphold it. 

It was a bad deal, and bad negotiating by Catelyn, as we can see in the text.  And Robb bears some responsibility for that.  But you cannot have this both ways.  Robb is King; he either gets the credit and the blame for his appointees, or he doesn't.  You seem to want to put all the positives on Catelyn and the negatives on Robb.  He chose her to go; this is an important point.  Delegating effectively may be the single most important quality in a leader, and you refuse to give Robb credit for choosing the most able subordinate in this case, despite obvious political pressure to give what amounts to a prestigious diplomatic mission to one of his lords.

On 3/24/2018 at 0:22 AM, Bernie Mac said:

The second time he did, but then so did Robb when he agreed to marry a Frey. 

The first deal was not made in bad faith, the Freys carried out their agreement to the very letter. 

We have GRRMs word that Walder Frey would have disentangled himself from the Starks if he thought they were losing.  I am sorry to say this, but you are wrong.  Not "I have a different opinion" wrong, but "I am contradicting the explicit statement of the author" wrong.  If Walder Frey was not willing to support his freely chosen king through thick and thin, then it was a negotiation in bad faith.  And as we see, he is attempting to weasel out even before he hears of Robb's wedding.

And you clearly don't understand what it means to negotiate in bad faith, so please, stop talking until you understand the concept.  Walder Frey arranging an alliance with the foreknowledge that he'd repudiate if it no longer benefitted him is negotiating in bad faith.  Robb breaking his deal due to unforeseen circumstances is NOT.

On 3/24/2018 at 0:22 AM, Bernie Mac said:

lol now you are making shit up as we know his reasoning. He makes it more than clear why he can not sue for peace

"I freed Jaime for Sansa's sake . . . and Arya's, if she still lives. You know that. But if I nurtured some hope of buying peace as well, was that so ill?"
"Yes," he said. "The Lannisters killed my father."
 
He is putting his own honour and need for revenge above the safety of his people and lands. 

No, you just don't understand the nature of feudal politics.  Which isn't surprising, since you haven't demonstrated any particular facility for thinking beyond your own hidebound, 21st century viewpoint, but still.

As we see, again and again and again, politics is personal!  I can't stress this enough, despite suspecting you don't have the capability to not think about this anachronistically.  Robb's ability to lead is based entirely on his personal charisma and reputation.  This is the whole point of the "testing" scenes at Winterfell - this is a real reflection on Robb's political abilities, and his vassals know it, and are trying to exploit him.  If it wasn't meant to be viewed as impressive it wouldn't be presented in that light.  Ditto when he's marching south, conferring with his lords - Catelyn, an experienced political operator herself, is impressed, because WE are meant to be impressed.  This is the kind of politicking almost no one does- listening to varied advice and having the skill to parse it is absolutely not a commonplace skill.  Tywin Lannister and Roose Bolton take no one's advice.  Robert Baratheon doesn't even listen to advice.  Mace Tyrell and Cersei Lannister surround themselves with lickspittles.  Robb is one of the few political leaders we see actively engaging in the concept of domestic or internal political management by integrating his vassals.

Robb cannot ignore the massive insult and crime committed against his father, because to do so undermines his own authority with his vassals.  Ned's imprisonment is the reason for war, and his murder makes it impossible to negotiate peace.  Even Tyrion says this explicitly.  When both sides of the conflict are acknowledging that there is no chance for a negotiated peace, why is it that you think you know better?

On 3/24/2018 at 0:22 AM, Bernie Mac said:

No, Karstark's horse are ordered to find Jaime, Karstark's foot are with Roose. 

Oh sorry, I forgot that Karstark cavalry don't count.

Don't be absurd.  Obviously it's only his horse, because only his horse have a chance at actually escaping into the Riverlands... you know, because if they didn't have horses, Stark cavalry would catch up real quick.

On 3/24/2018 at 0:22 AM, Bernie Mac said:

Yeah, he did. Edmure points out that he had a choice, he could have kept him prisoner, sent him to the wall or some other, less fatal, punishment.

To say that Robb had no choice is idiotic, he was the King, it was his call. 

OK, let me reiterate this - there is no such thing as divine monarchy in Westeros.  Robb doesn't get to make whatever call he wants; as he himself lampshades at one point, he was acclaimed by these men and only has a kingdom because of them.  There is a feudal contract, and Robb is beholden to it.  There isn't any such thing as long term imprisonment in Westeros, either - the only choices for Karstark are death or the Wall.  And Robb makes a harsh choice (which as we know has literally no impact on what occurs, as Karstark betrays Robb before his sentence is known) because Rickard Karstark violated a sacred taboo which reflects directly on Robb's word of honor.  He effectively violated guest right in Robb's home - that deserves a harsh punishment.  

On 3/24/2018 at 0:22 AM, Bernie Mac said:

lol no, I had taken into account him talking with his vassals. Every Commander does this, this is not a sign of political excellence in the medieval times. 

As you yourself note further down, you are incorrect.  Tywin Lannister, who Martin holds up as the example of astute political leadership for idiots in the fandom (a.k.a. Pycelle's) to get wet about, doesn't do this. He decides in private, and then employs his brother to help steer his vassals to that conclusion.

On 3/24/2018 at 0:22 AM, Bernie Mac said:

To who? The Freys already think his word is meaningless. 

And of course he can be lenient, like he was to both the Greatjon and his own mother. 

The Frey's have no cause to think his word is meaningless, and this goes back to your inability to understand the concept of good faith negotiating.  Robb is a teenager who made a mistake under severe emotional, physical, and presumably pharmacological distress.  He immediately makes an effort to make amends, and it's an extremely generous offer (and probably more than what Cat should have offered n the first place).

And the Greatjon doesn't commit a crime.  And his mother, for all that she commits a crime, commits one not nearly as egregious as Karstark's.  There is also a kinslaying element to killing his mother, and perhaps a social one as well.

On 3/24/2018 at 0:22 AM, Bernie Mac said:

Not really. His style, as explained by Tyrion, is to allow Kevan to steer the conversation to an agenda what Tywin and Kevan had already decided

Ser Kevan was his brother's vanguard in council, Tyrion knew from long experience; he never had a thought that Lord Tywin had not had first. It has all been settled beforehand, he concluded, and this discussion's no more than show.

This is actually pretty skilful and nuanced, giving his vassals the idea that they are part of the process to keep them happy while making sure that his own agenda is not put aside.  It is actually in direct opposite to the shambles we see at Riveerrun were Robb refused all the other proposals others were making and then accepted the offer of the crown when it was suddenly made. 

Tywin decides.  We know that.  Kevan listens.  This passage contradicts everything you've tried to claim; Tywin's war councils are shams, because the course of action has been decided and it's just a matter of convincing everyone.  And if not everyone agrees, then Tywin runs roughshod over them and ignores them (see, Tyrion, Cersei, Jaime).  That isn't accepting counsel.  That's using the appearance of a council to impose pre-determined beliefs and actions on vassals.  Robb shows far more consideration of his vassals' opinions and concerns than Tywin.

And the "shambles" at Riverrun reflects a real political dilemma, not a shambles.  The North has good reason, good legal reason, to secede.  Twice in two generations Starks have been brutally and unlawfully imprisoned and murdered by the King; if the monarchy won't honor the feudal contract, why should the Starks?

And by the way, Tywin's style is immediate, overwrought reprisal.  Tyrion is arrested, and instead of going through legal means, he launches a vicious invasion of the Riverlands, a neutral third party, solely to draw out and capture the legal Hand of the King.  The Rains of Castamere are also another example of his high-handed an brutal political style, or his "rescue" attempt and Duskendale.

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On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

It explicitly contradicts what you said. 

No, it actually does not.

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

 

Robb could have married a Frey, kept to the terms of his agreement, and Walder Frey would have betrayed him.

No, Walder could have dropped out when Robb refused to see sense that his cause was lost. 

"Stannis lost," Ser Hosteen said bluntly. "Wishing it were otherwise will not make it so. King Robb must make his peace with the Lannisters. He must put off his crown and bend the knee, little as he may like it."

They wanted to make him see sense, that is not a betrayal. Them not following Robb into the oblivion is not betrayal. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

 

  That is, explicitly, what GRRM is saying. 

Except it is not. GRRM is very clear, they would have found a way to disentangle themselves from Robb, that does not mean betrayal. If I cheat on my wife then I have betrayed her, if I split up from her I have not betrayed her or even if I split up from her and then start seeing someone else I still have not betrayed her. 

They'd only be betraying Robb if they said they were on his side but secretly working against him, there is nothing from GRRM's quotes that indicates the Frey's would have done this had Robb kept his side of the deal. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

 

Which means he did nothing to "turn" his allies, those allies were always going to turn on him if he wasn't winning.

Except he did turn those allies. His actions caused them to change sides. To pretend to forgive him so they could savagely kill him. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

And the only reason he wasn't winning were for reasons 100% outside his control.

Well no, not really. He choose to put the crown on his head. He choose to marry Jeyne, it was his choice to leave Roose in charge for the majority of the war, his choice to strip Winterfell of all its experience, his choice to send Theon to the Iron Islands, his choice to not offer Balon, Renly or Stannis a better deal, his choice to not try to gain the Martells or other factions, his choice to leave Edmure with vague instructions, his choice to execute Karstark, his choice to not sue for peace when all seemed lost...

Robb had a control of his fate, he frequently made the poor choice. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

There isn't even a basis for debate here.  The three main betrayals Robb experiences are completely outside of his ability to mitigate.

Yeah, they are. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

Rickard Karstark is going to go rogue the moment his sons die.

But not the 2,000 Karstark foot with Roose. It is Robb's decision to kill Karstark that turns them from allies to enemies. 

He gazed at his crown, the dark gleam of bronze, the circle of iron swords. "Lord Rickard defied me. Betrayed me. I have no choice but to condemn him. Gods know what the Karstark foot with Roose Bolton will do when they hear I've executed their liege for a traitor. Bolton must be warned."

Robb could have spared him, been lenient in his punishment, as he had been to both his mother and the Greatjon, he choose the harshest punishment giving Roose more support. Robb's actions had consequences. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

Bolton and Frey are both going to betray him the moment they think it's in their best interest, not, as you claim, when they're insulted (which, of course, Roose isn't).  Again, that isn't bad politics on Robb's part.

Except that is not true of the Freys and Roose is in no position to betray Robb without the support of the Frey's and Karstarks. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

This also is explicitly false, and you're missing a huge part of the point of the series if you believe this.

No, GRRM is clear. You not liking this does not change his words. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

A huge part of the politics of the series is that vassals DO fight for the Starks, that their legacy is so strong, and so positive, that there are many many people willing to fight until the point of death, for a losing/lost cause, to honor them. 

Sure, that is the same of every Overlord, they all have their fair share of loyalists and people only serving them out of fear (Dustins, Ryswells, Boltons etc.) 

The Starks are no different to any of their peers. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

The Blackfish at Riverrun.

Of course he does. He is an old man with nothing to live for. His family has lost all. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

The Blackwoods hold out despite Robb's death. 

Except we are told that has more to do with the Brackens than it does the Starks. 

As the riverlords took their leave, Lord Karyl Vance lingered to say, "Lord Jaime, you must go to Raventree. So long as it is Jonos at his gates Tytos will never yield, but I know he will bend his knee for you." Jaime thanked him for his counsel.

Had it been someone else other than Jonas Bracken he would have sued for peace long before. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

The mountain clansmen fighting for Stannis on behalf of "the Ned's little girl".

Also due to it being winter with not enough food stored for them to survive it. 

"Winter is almost upon us, boy. And winter is death. I would sooner my men die fighting for the Ned's little girl than alone and hungry in the snow, weeping tears that freeze upon their cheeks. No one sings songs of men who die like that. As for me, I am old. This will be my last winter"

You'll remember they were nowhere to be found when Winterfell was captured. It is only now that it is winter are they happy to sacrifice themselves. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

This is deliberately meant to be contrasted to the "better" politicians like Tywin, whose legacy, like his corpse, literally starts rotting on his funeral bier.

How does his legacy in the Westerlands start rotting? 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

In a social structure where politics are personal, personal legacy is more telling than whatever the status quo may be at the moment (because a future monarch/lord can reverse any policies at will).

I agree, and Tywin's legacy in the West is greater than Ned's in the North and hugely greater than Robb's, the first Stark to lose the North. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

It's made explicit that Catelyn's plea to submit is directly related to her fears for her children, and not because of political/war aims.

The Starks are the ruling House of the North, her children and their survival is much a political necessity as it as an emotional one. 

And once again you are wrong, Cat knows position Robb is in, he has lost, he made too many political fuck ups to survive. Robb himself knows this, that is why, despite having just got married, he is worried about who his heir will be. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

In fact, the only nobles we hear speak of submitting are the Freys.

No, that is clearly not true. 

"This is your royal pardon for Lord Gawen Westerling, his lady wife, and his daughter Jeyne, welcoming them back into the king's peace," Ser Kevan said. "This is a pardon for Lord Jonos Bracken of Stone Hedge. This is a pardon for Lord Vance. This for Lord Goodbrook. This for Lord Mooton of Maidenpool." - ASOS

 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

Robb cannot bend the knee, 

Of course he can. Cat, who is more politically aware that her teenage son, advocates such a position. Robb chooses not to 

 "You know that. But if I nurtured some hope of buying peace as well, was that so ill?"
"Yes," he said. "The Lannisters killed my father."
 
He is allowing his emotions rather than pragmatism to rule him, something Cat points out in her own thoughts
 
He is playing the boy now, not the king.
On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

In fact, we can ascertain that there is real political support for Robb's political agenda, because Maege Mormont and a Glover (I forget which one) carry his will, which will permit the North to carry on the fight. 

And yet the North does not, Robb has been dead for around a year in the books and there is not a peep of fighting for Robb. 

GRRM understands this, that is why he has made a psychopath the heir of Roose Bolton. No one wants to follow Ramsay, that will be one of the key reasons why support is given to a Stark faction. 

 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

House Mormont is firmly in support of the Stark cause in ADWD.

Sure, they are an island. The Boltons hold little threat towards them and Roose has not even tried to negotiate with them given that they are one of the least powerful Lords of the North. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

House Manderly continues to remain committed to the Stark cause. 

Not entirely, he has promised to serve Stannis as King should he deliver him a Stark. 

Manderly's primary goal is revenge against the Freys and Boltons for his son's death, it should also be noted that the Manderly's were fighting with the Boltons for the majority of the last two years, they have ample reason to want to see the Roose taken down. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

Of the entire North, the only defections we see are the Boltons and the Karstarks.

No, we have seen much of the North since defect, including, legally, the Manderlys.

The Cerwyns, Hornwoods, Dustins, Ryswells, Lockes, Stouts, and Karstark and Umber fations now serve the new Warden and Tommen I 

And it should be noted that  the Freys only defected when Robb fucked them over, until that point they were still in the West with him, still fighting his cause. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

Even Lady Dustin, for all her personal animus towards the Starks, isn't willing to forsake them entirely. 

How so? Can you back this up with evidence from the books?

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

it's the picture of the vast majority of the political community of the North remaining dedicated to the Starks

Do you even know what dedicated means? Please provide evidence from the books of the vast majority of the North remaining dedicated as this claim, like much of your opinions, is not backed up by the source material.

 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

It was a bad deal, and bad negotiating by Catelyn,

No, it was a great deal. Robb would have been lost without it. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

 

as we can see in the text.  And Robb bears some responsibility for that.  But you cannot have this both ways.  Robb is King; he either gets the credit and the blame for his appointees, or he doesn't.

Robb was not King or even Lord when Cat made that deal. Where you under the impression that he was? 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

We have GRRMs word that Walder Frey would have disentangled himself from the Starks if he thought they were losing.

Finally you actually use the words he said without twisting his words to suit your own silly agenda. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

I am sorry to say this, but you are wrong.  Not "I have a different opinion" wrong, but "I am contradicting the explicit statement of the author" wrong. 

Except when I quote the author I actually use the words he uses. The fact that you have to constantly try to explain what the author says show just how full of shit your opinion is. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

If Walder Frey was not willing to support his freely chosen king through thick and thin, then it was a negotiation in bad faith.  And as we see, he is attempting to weasel out even before he hears of Robb's wedding.

Walder did not elect to make Robb his king, he was not present, the decision was made in his absence. Do you not know what 'freely' means?

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

And you clearly don't understand what it means to negotiate in bad faith,

What are you talking about? 

QUOTE THE DEAL MADE IN THE BOOKS AND WHAT PART WAS MADE IN BA FAITH? 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

No, you just don't understand the nature of feudal politics.  Which isn't surprising, since you haven't demonstrated any particular facility for thinking beyond your own hidebound, 21st century viewpoint, but still.

,lol this is your fall back in every argument when someone disagrees with you. It i quite funny in its arrogance, that somone disagreeing with you means they don't understand the subject matter. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

As we see, again and again and again, politics is personal!  I can't stress this enough,

Who has claimed otherwise? 

The earth is round, I can't stress this enough

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

  Robb's ability to lead is based entirely on his personal charisma and reputation.  This is the whole point of the "testing" scenes at Winterfell - this is a real reflection on Robb's political abilities, and his vassals know it, and are trying to exploit him.  If it wasn't meant to be viewed as impressive it wouldn't be presented in that light.  Ditto when he's marching south, conferring with his lords - Catelyn, an experienced political operator herself, is impressed, because WE are meant to be impressed. 

Cat is impressed because he is her son. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

 

This is the kind of politicking almost no one does- listening to varied advice and having the skill to parse it is absolutely not a commonplace skill.

lol are you just going to ignore the various councils we have seen from Stannis, Twyin and Renly? 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

Tywin Lannister and Roose Bolton take no one's advice.

Tywin certainly does. He also allows Tyrion more freedom to rule independently than Robb does his subordinates. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

 Robert Baratheon doesn't even listen to advice.

Sure he does, he married Cersei and to assassinate the Targ children due to Jon Arryn's advice. 

And Robb often ignores advice. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

Mace Tyrell and Cersei Lannister surround themselves with lickspittles.  Robb is one of the few political leaders we see actively engaging in the concept of domestic or internal political management by integrating his vassals.

Robb constantly ignores advice. List 5 times King Robb had his mind changed by his advisers and acted accordingly 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

Robb cannot ignore the massive insult and crime committed against his father, because to do so undermines his own authority with his vassals.

Of course he can, he'd lose respect but he can forgive it. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

Ned's imprisonment is the reason for war, and his murder makes it impossible to negotiate peace.

Again, you are using words that you seem to not understand what they mean. Peace was not impossible. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

Even Tyrion says this explicitly.

No. he says this when Jaime is captured and the Lannisters are in a weak position. 

You'll have an easier time drinking wine from that cup than you will convincing Robb Stark to make peace now. He's winning … or hadn't you noticed?"

But peace was always an option. 

Ser Ilyn Payne stood mute, the hilt of Eddard Stark's greatsword rising over one shoulder. "Ice," said Tyrion. "He'll have that when he makes his peace with us, not before."

 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

Oh sorry, I forgot that Karstark cavalry don't count.

You made a false claim, don't get so offended when people call you on it. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

Don't be absurd.  Obviously it's only his horse, because only his horse have a chance at actually escaping into the Riverlands... you know, because if they didn't have horses, Stark cavalry would catch up real quick.

What does that have to do with what I said? 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

OK, let me reiterate this - there is no such thing as divine monarchy in Westeros.

Why would this need reiterating? No one has made this claim. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

the only choices for Karstark are death or the Wall.  

They are not the only choices, as Edmure points out. But even if there were only two choices, Robb still chose wrong. He fucked up, choosing his own honour. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

As you yourself note further down, you are incorrect.

No, I'm correct, you whining about it does not change this. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

Tywin Lannister, who Martin holds up as the example of astute political leadership for idiots in the fandom (a.k.a. Pycelle's)

lo Pyclelle is many things, but he is clealry not an idiot. By all means quote GRRM's thoughts on Pycelle. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

The Frey's have no cause to think his word is meaningless,

Yeah, they do as he broke their last promise to them. 

 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

Robb is a teenager who made a mistake under severe emotional, physical, and presumably pharmacological distress. 

Yup, Robb's reign had many such mistakes but you are right he was under emotional stress during the entirely of his short, unsuccessful reign. Just because there are reasons for Robb's calamitous political decisions does not mean they become good. They were still awful. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

He immediately makes an effort to make amends,

Not immediately. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

 

and it's an extremely generous offer (and probably more than what Cat should have offered n the first place).

How is it generous? The Tullys are about to lose all. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

And the Greatjon doesn't commit a crime.

Yeah, according to Robb and Ned he did;

"My lord father taught me that it was death to bare steel against your liege lord,"

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

And his mother, for all that she commits a crime, commits one not nearly as egregious as Karstark's.  There is also a kinslaying element to killing his mother, and perhaps a social one as well.

And he was lenient, just as he was lenient on the Greatjon. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

Tywin decides.  We know that.  Kevan listens.  This passage contradicts everything you've tried to claim;

No, it really does not. Just because you want it to be wrong does not make it so. Please put some effort into this discussion. 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

Tywin's war councils are shams, because the course of action has been decided and it's just a matter of convincing everyone.  And if not everyone agrees, then Tywin runs roughshod over them and ignores them

Just like Robb's. Ultimately there is only one man making the final decision. 

 

On 3/27/2018 at 4:12 PM, cpg2016 said:

And by the way, Tywin's style is immediate, overwrought reprisal.  Tyrion is arrested, and instead of going through legal means,

He goes through legal means, he contacts his daughter and the King orders the release of Tyrion, but Ned ignores this. 

 

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On 4/6/2018 at 3:55 PM, Bernie Mac said:

No, Walder could have dropped out when Robb refused to see sense that his cause was lost. 

"Stannis lost," Ser Hosteen said bluntly. "Wishing it were otherwise will not make it so. King Robb must make his peace with the Lannisters. He must put off his crown and bend the knee, little as he may like it."

They wanted to make him see sense, that is not a betrayal. Them not following Robb into the oblivion is not betrayal. 

Sorry buddy.  I know your not the brightest bulb, but even you could have read GRRM's own comments.  Which are, explicitly, that Walder would have wiggled out of his alliance with Robb.  This isn't an arguable point.  The Red Wedding was particularly vicious because Walder felt slighted, but he was going to be on the winning side no matter what.  And Robb's cause is not lost after the Blackwater.

But to my point, the Freys entered that deal in bad faith.  The fact that Walder was not a loyal vassal (loyalty doesn't end when the chance for gain evaporates) more or less absolves Robb of any responsibility for breaking his oath.  That is what it means to bargain in bad faith; your agreement is null and void from the word go.

On 4/6/2018 at 3:55 PM, Bernie Mac said:

Except it is not. GRRM is very clear, they would have found a way to disentangle themselves from Robb, that does not mean betrayal. If I cheat on my wife then I have betrayed her, if I split up from her I have not betrayed her or even if I split up from her and then start seeing someone else I still have not betrayed her. 

What kind of stupid argument is that?  Marriage is a partnership.  Vassalage is not.  And by the way, your wife might feel very differently.  But ignoring that bit of casual misogyny, Walder's oath is not binding as long as he feels like it.  That isn't how oaths work.  If Robb fulfills his end of the bargain (which it seems he does; even his "betrayal" isn't done in bad faith, and he takes immediate steps to remedy it) Walder is obligated to do the same.  That Walder is not planning on this even before Robb's marriage makes it obvious he was never negotiating in good faith.

But even working within the context of your infantile argument, Walder never "breaks up" with Robb.  He "cheats" on him, in your adolescent parlance.  Nowhere does Walder say to Robb, "this isn't working out, I'm going to get into bed with the Lannisters".  It's truly telling that even in constructing your own nonsensical analogy, you still can't make the point stick.
 

On 4/6/2018 at 3:55 PM, Bernie Mac said:

Except he did turn those allies. His actions caused them to change sides. To pretend to forgive him so they could savagely kill him. 

Again, GRRM explicitly contradicts you.  He says, outright, that Walder would have betrayed his oath no matter what if Robb seemed like he wasn't winning.  Try again, I won't be addressing this point, because it is so crystal clear that you are wrong (and, also... have some pretty effed up views on relationships, which doesn't surprise me for someone making the prima facie evil and immoral arguments you tend to back).

On 4/6/2018 at 3:55 PM, Bernie Mac said:

How does his legacy in the Westerlands start rotting? 

How about the fact that one of his son's is almost certainly going to murder his daughter?  That the one child he despised will save the world, despite the constant negative reinforcement and hate he (Tywin) heaped on him (Tyrion)?  That his entire line is going extinct, with lordship of Casterly Rock going to his brother's kids (maybe)?  That the alliance that he forged is dissolving in spite and backbiting and violence?  Everything he worked for his whole life is coming apart.  That is pretty much the definition, neh?

On 4/6/2018 at 3:55 PM, Bernie Mac said:

Well no, not really. He choose to put the crown on his head. He choose to marry Jeyne, it was his choice to leave Roose in charge for the majority of the war, his choice to strip Winterfell of all its experience, his choice to send Theon to the Iron Islands, his choice to not offer Balon, Renly or Stannis a better deal, his choice to not try to gain the Martells or other factions, his choice to leave Edmure with vague instructions, his choice to execute Karstark, his choice to not sue for peace when all seemed lost...

Robb had a control of his fate, he frequently made the poor choice. 

Except all those examples aren't poor choices.

First off, he didn't choose to strip Winterfell of it's soldiers, Rodrik Cassel does.  Wrong.

Second, Balon is waging war regardless of whether Robb sends Theon or not.  Wrong.

He doesn't leave Edmure withe vague instructions, which is why the author makes it clear within the text that Edmure was wrong.  Wrong.

His execution of Rickard Karstark has literally no impact on the story, because the Karstark men were ordered to abandon his cause before the execution.  Wrong.

It's not even worth going on.

On 4/6/2018 at 3:55 PM, Bernie Mac said:

Robb could have spared him, been lenient in his punishment, as he had been to both his mother and the Greatjon, he choose the harshest punishment giving Roose more support. Robb's actions had consequences. 

But not consequences Robb could have foreseen.  This is stupid.  Again, this is perfectly in keeping with your complete inability to understand things like justice or morals.

 

You know what?  I'm done.  Your either a troll or a legitimate psychopath, and I suspect the former.  You also clearly haven't understood either the literal text, or the themes in the story.

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On 4/11/2018 at 11:16 PM, cpg2016 said:

You know what?  I'm done.

That would carry a lot more weight if you started and finished with that rather than reply to my post first and then claim you are done. (oh and another notification has popped up, you have replied to me on another topic, so much for being done :rolleyes:)

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  Your either a troll or a legitimate psychopath, and I suspect the former. 

We have a difference of opinion about fictional characters in a fictional universe. Don't get so worked up over it. And while I don't know you well enough to judge you as a person. the very idea that  you think disagreeing with you is enough for you to diagnose them as a psychopath speaks of delusions of grandeur

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You also clearly haven't understood either the literal text, or the themes in the story.

lol this is your common goto when you can't win an argument, I have seen you use it with other people. Sometimes, especially about art, people are not all going to come to the same conclusion. they are not always going to agree with you. 

On 4/11/2018 at 11:16 PM, cpg2016 said:

Sorry buddy.  I know your not the brightest bulb,

wow, starting off with an insult, you think you might be taking this conversation with a stranger a little too personally? 

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but even you could have read GRRM's own comments.  Which are, explicitly, that Walder would have wiggled out of his alliance with Robb. 

yes, but that is not treachery. 

The Freys are under no obligation to die for Robb's cause, they are perfectly in their rights to tell Robb that they no longer will follow him if they think he is doomed and won't see sense. 

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This isn't an arguable point. 

Sure it is, that is why you are arguing with me about it. 

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The Red Wedding was particularly vicious because Walder felt slighted,

the author makes it clear there would have been no red wedding had Robb not betrayed him. The Red Wedding was the savage act. 

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but he was going to be on the winning side no matter what

More than likely. but leaving a doomed cause is not always treacherous.

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And Robb's cause is not lost after the Blackwater.

it pretty much is. 

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But to my point, the Freys entered that deal in bad faith. 

No they didn't, they did their part of the deal, they let Robb cross the bridge and helped him save Riverrun. THAT WAS THE DEAL!

As neither Cat, Walder or Robb expected Ned would die, Robb would become King or the war would continue for more than another year; nothing else was agreed upon. 

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The fact that Walder was not a loyal vassal (loyalty doesn't end when the chance for gain evaporates) more or less absolves Robb of any responsibility for breaking his oath.

eh? please quote from the books what part of the deal Walder and Cat made at the Twins which was not honored? 

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  That is what it means to bargain in bad faith; your agreement is null and void from the word go.

They did not bargain in bad faith. Robb got his deal and then some. 

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What kind of stupid argument is that?  Marriage is a partnership.Vassalage is not

Exactly. Walder did not promise to be Robb's vassal when he made the deal with Cat. Where are you getting this shit from? 

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 But ignoring that bit of casual misogyny, Walder's oath is not binding as long as he feels like it.  That isn't how oaths work.

What oath has he made to Robb? 

And the series is very clear that oaths are only as good as the person thinks they are. Robb ignored House Stark's oaths to House Barathon and went to war, Ned did the same against House Targaryen. The majority of the Houses of the Seven Kingdoms have broken their 'oaths' at some point. 

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 If Robb fulfills his end of the bargain (which it seems he does; even his "betrayal" isn't done in bad faith, and he takes immediate steps to remedy it) Walder is obligated to do the same. 

Walder already has fulfilled his end of the bargain. Please quote the deal Cat and Walder made and what Walder failed to do? 

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But even working within the context of your infantile argument,

Yay more ad hominem attacks, clearly your argument is not solid enough to stand on its own merit. 

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Walder never "breaks up" with Robb.  He "cheats" on him, in your adolescent parlance.

He actually never cheats on him. Walder fulfilled his deal with the heir of the North (for that is all Robb was at the time), it was Robb who failed on his end. 

After being betrayed Walder turns savage and treacherous, not before.  

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Nowhere does Walder say to Robb, "this isn't working out, I'm going to get into bed with the Lannisters".

eh? 

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It's truly telling that even in constructing your own nonsensical analogy, you still can't make the point stick.

lol another ad hominem. 

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Again, GRRM explicitly contradicts you.  He says, outright, that Walder would have betrayed his oath no matter what if Robb seemed like he wasn't winning.

no, the author never says that. please quote GRRM were he explicitly says Walder would have betrayed Robb. 

Dropping out of a war is not betrayal. And Walder made no oath to Robb to continuously fight wars for him no matter the circumstances. 

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  Try again, I won't be addressing this point, because it is so crystal clear that you are wrong (and, also... have some pretty effed up views on relationships, which doesn't surprise me for someone making the prima facie evil and immoral arguments you tend to back).

yet more ad hominen attacks 

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How about the fact that one of his son's is almost certainly going to murder his daughter? 

so something that may or may not happen years later is evidence that Tywin's "legacy, like his corpse, literally starts rotting on his funeral bier."   first of all you may be confused with what literally means, second of all the death of one or more of his children after he has died does not destroy his legacy. 

Tywin being the youngest Hand, one the of the longest serving Hands, the acknowledged victor of the war of the five kings, the grandfather of two Kings,  and House Lannister being in a much stronger position during his rule than at any point during the 300 years of Weteros is his legacy. 

Tywin is dead, what happens next defines his children's legacy, not his. Alexander and Cnut are still regarded as Great despite the failings of their children, Elizabeth's legacy is huge despite having no children. 

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That the one child he despised will save the world,

a Lannister saves the world? that would be awesome for Tywin's legacy. 

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despite the constant negative reinforcement and hate he (Tywin) heaped on him (Tyrion)? 

Tywin made him his Hand, sat him on his Small Council. no dwarf had ever been given the advantages Tywin gave Tyrion.  that is what will be known, not Tyrion's inner thoughts about how mean his dad was. 

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That his entire line is going extinct, with lordship of Casterly Rock going to his brother's kids (maybe)?

fairly common in history, both real and fictional. it does not mean their legacy is doomed should a nephew or cousin inherit instead of a son or daughter. Do you think Caesar's legacy was damaged because Octavius, rather than his son, inherited his dynasty? 

Jon Arryn had no problem with a nephew or cousin being his heir, you are making it into a bigger deal than it is. 

 

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Except all those examples aren't poor choices.

Come on, be honest with yourself, you know they are. 

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First off, he didn't choose to strip Winterfell of it's soldiers, Rodrik Cassel does.  Wrong.

No, Robb does, this is covered by Bran after Robb has left. He strips Winterfell of all its trained soldiers. 

When the distant cheers had faded to silence and the yard was empty at last, Winterfell seemed deserted and dead. Bran looked around at the faces of those who remained, women and children and old men … and Hodor. The huge stableboy had a lost and frightened look to his face. "Hodor?" he said sadly.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The oldest were men grown, seventeen and eighteen years from the day of their naming. One was past twenty. Most were younger, sixteen or less.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

"They don't fight very well," Bran said dubiously. He scratched Summer idly behind the ears as the direwolf tore at a haunch of meat. Bones crunched between his teeth.
"For a certainty," Maester Luwin agreed with a deep sigh. The maester was peering through his big Myrish lens tube, measuring shadows and noting the position of the comet that hung low in the morning sky. "Yet given time … Ser Rodrik has the truth of it, we need men to walk the walls. Your lord father took the cream of his guard to King's Landing, and your brother took the rest, along with all the likely lads for leagues around. Many will not come back to us, and we must needs find the men to take their places."
Bran stared resentfully at the sweating boys below. "If I still had my legs, I could beat them all."
 
Robb left the North's capital bereft of trained men, he painted a target on it. That was poor decision making and all on Robb. He is actually lucky that his mother has more common sense and sends Rodrik home to train some teenagers. 
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Second, Balon is waging war regardless of whether Robb sends Theon or not.  Wrong.

But Winterfell falls so quickly for two reasons

  1. Robb took all the competent soldierss
  2. Robb sent an expert on Winterfell to help the Ironborn
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He doesn't leave Edmure withe vague instructions, which is why the author makes it clear within the text that Edmure was wrong.  Wrong.

Sure he does

"Would that it were. My brother commands in Riverrun?"
"Yes, my lady. His Grace left Ser Edmure to hold Riverrun and guard his rear."
 
We are given two different instructions, the fact that Edmure, Mallister, Bracken and Blackwood were all in agreement with protecting Robb's rear is clear evidence that his command was vague. When so many subordinates get an order was wrong then the chances are the order was not clear to begin with. This is just as much on Robb as it is Edmure. 
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His execution of Rickard Karstark has literally no impact on the story, because the Karstark men were ordered to abandon his cause before the execution.  Wrong.

No, can you quote when the Karstark foot was ordered to abandon? They did not abandon Roose, they carried on with him. 

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It's not even worth going on.

yet you have 

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But not consequences Robb could have foreseen.  This is stupid.  Again, this is perfectly in keeping with your complete inability to understand things like justice or morals.

and a final ad hominem attack. 

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