NFL 2018 Draft: On The One Hand...

[DanteGabriel]

On 3/31/2018 at 7:49 PM, Pony Queen Jace said:

Reche Caldwell didn't catch the ball.

Force Out Rule FOREVER!!!!!

Fun fact: even with those drops, Caldwell had more receiving yards in that game than Harrison did.

 

9 hours ago, James Arryn said:

Oh, sure, it’s not an entirely safe bet. And I mean the economic issues about paying a war that much money are as true for the Pats as anyone else, and maybe that more than personality issues make it an unlikely B.B. move. I guess it partly depends on where you see the Pats going as is, and you’d have a more informed take on that than I do. 

But, in general, having a Popovich or Hoodie or whoever’s ability to (often) make problems go away is a currency you only waste by not spending...it has no residual value and can’t be exchanged, it only comes into play in situations like this, assuming it is that. I suppose, philosophically, this will answer itself, as BB will obviously know more than either of us whether this is in fact one of those situations and will act accordingly. I guess the only bad news for you guys, short-term, would be him deciding it is and trying but getting beat to the punch. 

Is the Brady/Gronk stuff still about Brady’s guru guy, or is that considered a symptom of something bigger?

edit: for reasons that escape me, my autocorrect insists on turning Gronk into a Dutch town. 

It's hard to tell where the Pats are going. A year ago they were sitting pretty, and now the heir apparent is gone, for a lower than expected price, and the mystique has worn off (again). The team has been stripped of talent and the defense looks like  break-and-break-again rather than bend-but-don't-break.

Just going by what I've seen, I think Belichick has gotten a little cranky and done some shit that rubbed players wrong, and this time there wasn't a championship to make everybody feel better about it. 

I'm sure the Guerrero thing is part of it, but I think also Guerrero is a symptom of deeper divisions between Brady and Belichick. I think a lot of the tension came over Garoppolo and I think Belichick himself is a little pissed he had to trade his hand-groomed successor that was going to let him prove he could win without Brady. I also think Brady's in a different head space than before, with more on his mind than mercilessly executing the latest game plan, and the backing off the Krafts has emboldened him to some degree too.

I think the Butler benching pissed off players, because that's a shitty way to treat the guy who changed the Pats' trajectory from "haven't won a title since Spygate, keep losing on freak catches as karmic payback" to inaugurating a second dynastic run. There's been some tea leaf reading of social media here, and guys like Brady, Hightower and McCourty, all showed unequivocal support for Butler when he posted about the Super Bowl. It's hard to think of three more significant player leaders on the team than that.

Moreover, accepting a low price on the Garoppolo trade when there were better offers available, and benching your number one corner in a Super Bowl they lost because the defense couldn't cover or tackle, seems to blow a hole in Belichick's mantra of "doing what's best for the team." Belichick, from my uninformed perspective, seems to be making choices for personal reasons that hurt the team. For a franchise that has used that "good of the team" rationale to pay below market rates and maintain a rigid culture, having the coach/GM pull personal shit can spark some mutinous thoughts.

[James Arryn]

5 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

Fun fact: Caldwell had more receiving yards in that game than Harrison did.

 

It's hard to tell where the Pats are going. A year ago they were sitting pretty, and now the heir apparent is gone, for a lower than expected price, and the mystique has worn off (again).

Just going by what I've seen, I think Belichick has gotten a little cranky and done some shit that rubbed players wrong, and this time there wasn't a championship to make everybody feel better about it. 

I'm sure the Guerrero thing is part of it, but I think also Guerrero is a symptom of deeper divisions between Brady and Belichick. I think a lot of the tension came over Garoppolo and I think Belichick himself is a little pissed he had to trade his hand-groomed successor that was going to let him prove he could win without Brady.

I think the Butler benching pissed off players, because that's a shitty way to treat the guy who changed the Pats' trajectory from "haven't won a title since Spygate, keep losing on freak catches as karmic payback" to inaugurating a second dynastic run. There's been some tea leaf reading of social media here, and guys like Brady, Hightower and McCourty, all showed unequivocal support for Butler when he posted about the Super Bowl. It's hard to think of three more significant player leaders on the team than that.

Moreover, accepting a low price on the Garoppolo trade when there were better offers available, and benching your number one corner in a Super Bowl they lost because the defense couldn't cover or tackle, seems to blow a hole in Belichick's mantra of "doing what's best for the team." Belichick, from my uninformed perspective, seems to be making choices for personal reasons that hurt the team. For a franchise that has used that "good of the team" rationale to pay below market rates and maintain a rigid culture, having the coach/GM pull personal shit can spark some mutinous thoughts.

Ah, cheers, makes sense. Actually I can kinda relate, re: Harbaugh. When the Niners brass basically told guys being asked to endure pain, I risk their brains etc. for the cause of Winning that they themselves wouldn’t endure an uncomfortable working environment even if it came with all kinds of winning, I expected the same kind of ‘buying out’ aftershock, and i’m pretty sure that’s what happened.

Hey, where’s Many, btw? Just realized I haven’t seen him In what feels like a long time. 

[Maithanet]

16 hours ago, Bronn Stone said:

Pats trade Cooks and a 4th to Rams for a 1st and a 6th. 

Just wow.   Thought Cooks was a good fit in NE.  Is this a play for OBJ?

I've gotta say this seems like a really weird trade.  It's a weird trade for the Pats because aren't they in "win now" mode?  They traded away a bunch of draft picks last year (including trading for Cooks) indicated that they were.  Very very unlikely that the Pats are going to get more value from the #23 pick than from Cooks this year or next, and by then Brady is done.

It's a weird trade for the Rams because Cooks has now had two teams give up on him in two years.  That's weird.  He seemed like a good fit in NE, and yet they're trading him?  I would be very concerned that Cooks is either injured or a coaching headache. 

This seems like an unusual lose-lose kinda trade.

14 hours ago, DanteGabriel said:

Hard not to think Belichick's just saying "fuck it" about Brady's final couple of years. Wouldn't be surprised to see Gronk get traded too.

Why do people think Beckham is their target here? I just don't see him fitting in. I wouldn't trust him if he promised to be on his best behavior.

The Pats trading Gronk would be .  Might as well trade Brady at that point (yes I know, his contract is structured to prevent that, but still).

I agree Beckham looks like a terrible fit in New England. 

[DanteGabriel]

19 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I've gotta say this seems like a really weird trade.  It's a weird trade for the Pats because aren't they in "win now" mode?  They traded away a bunch of draft picks last year (including trading for Cooks) indicated that they were.  Very very unlikely that the Pats are going to get more value from the #23 pick than from Cooks this year or next, and by then Brady is done.

It's a weird trade for the Rams because Cooks has now had two teams give up on him in two years.  That's weird.  He seemed like a good fit in NE, and yet they're trading him?  I would be very concerned that Cooks is either injured or a coaching headache. 

It sure did seem like they were in win now mode last year with the Cooks and Gilmore acquisitions, so it seems like they've changed gears. The talent cupboard is pretty bare, they need a new left tackle and a quarterback to develop (neither of which they're likely to acquire by Belichick's traditional drafting policy of trading high picks to get multiple mid-rounders). Nor were they going to pay Cooks $15 million a year when they could get 80% of his production from guys earning a fraction of that. So the trade makes sense to me. It's amazing that they got a bigger price for him than they got for Handsome Jimmy.

It does seem a little weird for Cooks to be traded twice, and I don't think he was considered a headache in NE. I think it was just the expiring contract and a desire to get assets for a guy they couldn't afford to resign -- for both the Saints and Pats.

[Bronn Stone]

Hey Bronn Stone,

You have just been sent the following note from Bitterbridge Peaches in the Yahoo Sports Fantasy Football league named Westeros Football Thunderdome (370390)...

 

---

Hey Bronn, Manhole here. I've been banned from the board but would like to continue playing in this league. Please send me an invite next season if you're cool with me staying on. Anyways, Happy Honda Days and all that good stuff. Hope you are well.

[Rockroi]

3 hours ago, DanteGabriel said:

It's hard to tell where the Pats are going. A year ago they were sitting pretty, and now the heir apparent is gone, for a lower than expected price, and the mystique has worn off (again). The team has been stripped of talent and the defense looks like  break-and-break-again rather than bend-but-don't-break.

Just going by what I've seen, I think Belichick has gotten a little cranky and done some shit that rubbed players wrong, and this time there wasn't a championship to make everybody feel better about it. 

I'm sure the Guerrero thing is part of it, but I think also Guerrero is a symptom of deeper divisions between Brady and Belichick. I think a lot of the tension came over Garoppolo and I think Belichick himself is a little pissed he had to trade his hand-groomed successor that was going to let him prove he could win without Brady. I also think Brady's in a different head space than before, with more on his mind than mercilessly executing the latest game plan, and the backing off the Krafts has emboldened him to some degree too.

I think the Butler benching pissed off players, because that's a shitty way to treat the guy who changed the Pats' trajectory from "haven't won a title since Spygate, keep losing on freak catches as karmic payback" to inaugurating a second dynastic run. There's been some tea leaf reading of social media here, and guys like Brady, Hightower and McCourty, all showed unequivocal support for Butler when he posted about the Super Bowl. It's hard to think of three more significant player leaders on the team than that.

Moreover, accepting a low price on the Garoppolo trade when there were better offers available, and benching your number one corner in a Super Bowl they lost because the defense couldn't cover or tackle, seems to blow a hole in Belichick's mantra of "doing what's best for the team." Belichick, from my uninformed perspective, seems to be making choices for personal reasons that hurt the team. For a franchise that has used that "good of the team" rationale to pay below market rates and maintain a rigid culture, having the coach/GM pull personal shit can spark some mutinous thoughts.

So, why do we still come to this board?  I mean, Martin won't release the next book until, what, 2020 at this rate?  The series doesn't come back until 2019!  The NFL doesn't start for 4 .5 more months.

And yet here we are.  

I agree with much of what DG said above, only I am not convinced the Pats are in "full rebuild more."  I think that this trade increases the likelihood that Gronk is back next season.  I will readily admit that Gronk's status is needlessly complicated with some saying he's definitely going to return and other saying the Pats (especially Belichick) want him gone.  But this trade makes me think the Pats will need somebody to catch whatever Brady has left to throw (I assume that this season will be the fall-off-the-cliff season for TB12).  

I think the Pats are in "small" rebuild mode.  In 2012 the Pats did something similar: they drafted two defensive players in the first round (Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower) and that netted the team 3 SB appearances and 2 titles (though to be fair, Jones was only here for the first).  I think that the D has to get a lot better for the Pats to compete: the LBs are putrid save Hightower; the DL is hit or miss (with Malcome Brown being the closest thing they have to a very good player), and the DBs are as poor as they have been since 2013- with Gilmore and McCourty being good-to-great and everyone else being sub-par or downright terrible (the fact that Cyrus Jones seems like a HUGE "swing-and-a-miss" does not help).  That is what they are angling at with these picks: improve their Achilles Heal. 

On Offense, I think the Pats are okay: they have Gronk; Edleman will be back; they have Hogan as an "Amendola 2.0"; they have Mitchell; heck they even have Kenny Britt (maybe); at RB, they have White, Burkhead and Jeremy Hill.  That's enough (assuming you can avoid injuries, certainly not a given on this team).  

Behind the scenes, the Pats are in more turmoil now than ever before since 1997; Brady is pissed (can't imagine why...); Belichick sees his players as not conforming to his will; other players are chaffing under Belichick's style; ownership believes one got away in Minnesota (can't imagine why...). And yes, much as to do with Brady wanting to see "Rub-Down-Shaman" Alex "I-Am-Legally-Obligated-To-Inform-You-That-What-I-Do-Cannot-Cure-Cancer" Guerrero, and how that just grinds Belichick's gears... 

... and the fact that the ONE Thing the Pats usually have to sate these tensions - winning a championship - is not there.  Had the Pats won this past Super Bowl would have silenced everyone- both internally and externally.  But instead it became another example of dysfunction: a head coach benching the team's #1 (or #1A) DB just hours before the game in a classic "My-way-or-the-highway" sort of move that has left a bad taste in everyone's mouth.  Now had Butler played that is no guarantee of a victory (they would have won, but I feel obligated to say that last thing anyway), but we now will never know.  

Butler IMMEDIATELY signed for $61 Million deal with $30 Mil Guaranteed with Tennessee.  So I can clearly see why he was a such a problem... 

Regardless, I think the Pats can be competitive this season; I REALLY liked the Cooks trade as it sets the Pats up for depth on D and trends in the right direction for the next few seasons.  

Or they will implode.  Never know.  

 

 

[DanteGabriel]

So in football related news, the Ravens signed RG3 but Kaepernick is still unsigned. I guess the Ravens felt pretty confident that Griffin wouldn't take a knee during the anthem.

[briantw]

4 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

So in football related news, the Ravens signed RG3 but Kaepernick is still unsigned. I guess the Ravens felt pretty confident that Griffin wouldn't take a knee during the anthem.

Mostly because his knee would probably blow out if he did.

[DanteGabriel]

5 minutes ago, briantw said:

Mostly because his knee would probably blow out if he did.

... That's the joke.

[Jaime L]

36 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

So in football related news, the Ravens signed RG3 but Kaepernick is still unsigned. I guess the Ravens felt pretty confident that Griffin wouldn't take a knee during the anthem.

Common courtesy dictates "take a knee, leave a knee". Ravens got themselves a guy who gets it. 

[Kalbear]

34 minutes ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

.

If anything, since the election the Poli thread has basically become an economics summit full of all kinds of facts and figuas or the go-to destination to witness Kalbear bemoaning that Dems won't win the house.

 

WELL THEY WON'T GOD DAMNIT

[Jace, Extat]

6 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

WELL THEY WON'T GOD DAMNIT

Bruh

Bruh

After the league gets facefucked in a collusion case against Kaep are you gonna give football a 15969th chance?

It's still morally sickening, the league, but there actually is movement on the concussions and Captain Kirk just scored a fully guaranteed contract and Beckham is making noises in that direction too.

[Kalbear]

4 minutes ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

Bruh

Bruh

After the league gets facefucked in a collusion case against Kaep are you gonna give football a 15969th chance?

It's still morally sickening, the league, but there actually is movement on the concussions and Captain Kirk just scored a fully guaranteed contract and Beckham is making noises in that direction too.

I don't honestly know. I miss talking about it with people, but I don't miss watching the games all that much, and I really don't miss the feeling I had as a fan - of either being relieved that my team won, or pissed that it lost, but never actually happy. 

And football has become if anything even more toxic with the bullshit of Trump. 

[Kalbear]

Oh hey, fuck the NFL owners

https://twitter.com/YahooSports/status/981922433639899136

[James Arryn]

 

So, the upside to Trump is guys like that letting it all hang out. 

Can’t wait for the shrinkage.

 

edit: re McNair. Not kal. Believe me, i’ve met Kal and he’s definitely post-shrinkage. (I got your back, man!)

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

I don't honestly know. I miss talking about it with people, but I don't miss watching the games all that much, and I really don't miss the feeling I had as a fan - of either being relieved that my team won, or pissed that it lost, but never actually happy. 

And football has become if anything even more toxic with the bullshit of Trump. 

Just do what I do, hope for an entertaining game and don’t get too invested when you watch. That way losing doesn’t hurt and winning is a cherry on top if the game was fun.

Or become a degenerate gambler. I hear that works too.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

If true, this should make Pats fans nervous:  

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2768534-patriots-draft-rumors-new-england-has-affinity-for-baker-mayfield

[Kalbear]

Baker Mayfield is probably the best upside of all of them. I personally like Jackson more, but Mayfield could end up being better. Darnold and Allen are obvious garbage. Rosen should be fine but probably won't be insane, and the injury risk is tough. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Baker Mayfield is probably the best upside of all of them. I personally like Jackson more, but Mayfield could end up being better. Darnold and Allen are obvious garbage. Rosen should be fine but probably won't be insane, and the injury risk is tough. 

I mostly agree, although I'd put Rosen in the top tier. I really don't get why people love Darnold. He looks the part, but he's nothing special when you watch him play. Rosen clearly outplayed him in the USC-UCLA game. And Allen screams bust.

Anyways, there are lots of reports that Buffalo is the team gunning for the Giants pick. If they get it, it wouldn't be surprising to see four QBs go in the top 5, which means Jackson is probably off the board at 11 or 15, if not earlier. Now I'm starting to wonder if Rudolph will go from a second rounder to going as high as 15. 

[Kalbear]

Rosen is that "if healthy" thing, which works out about as well as one would expect. Avoiding injury is something some players do have and others do not, and Rosen doesn't have that yet. I think he's good and could do well, and I think a young team with a shitty line will get him killed and out of the league in 2-3 years.