US Politics: March Madness

[Spockydog]

3 hours ago, dmc515 said:

Still Israel, because we'd be supplying them with far superior weaponry.

Lol.

 

[OldGimletEye]

8 hours ago, Triskele said:

OldGimletEye - Who are you?  I must know.  Please tell me you're at least an adjunct.

Mainly just some random peasent, number 6908378, living out here in the sticks. And I'm not affiliated with academia. I only earned a masters in econ and work for a private institution, and sometimes they let me do economicyish  stuff, when I'm not getting the boss coffee or picking up their lunch, or I'm not playin' with the pencil sharpener.

[OldGimletEye]

The conservative clown crew is earning itself a very bad reputation.

And its not the good kind of bad reputation.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/1/17185746/ted-nugent-parkland-shooting-survivors-nra

Quote

Fox News host Laura Ingraham is taunting one of the survivors of the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting for getting rejected from colleges he applied to. And now the student is calling on her sponsors to boycott her show — to some big success.

The controversy began with a tweet on Wednesday, when Ingraham linked to an article from the Daily Wire about how David Hogg, an organizer for March for Our Lives, didn’t get into UC Los Angeles, UC San Diego, UC Santa Barbara, or UC Irvine despite his 4.2 GPA. (Ingraham mistakenly said he had a 4.1 GPA.)

.......................................................

Shocking but true. Ted Nugent has shit for brains.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/1/17185746/ted-nugent-parkland-shooting-survivors-nra

Quote

Ted Nugent, a National Rifle Association (NRA) board member and rock musician, became the latest to lob personal attacks at the teenage Parkland, Florida, shooting survivors who organized the March for Our Lives — saying that the kids are “liars,” “poor, mushy-brained children,” and even “soulless” during an interview on March 30 with The Joe Pags Show, a nationally syndicated conservative radio show.

 

[LongRider]

40 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

The conservative clown crew is earning itself a very bad reputation.

And its not the good kind of bad reputation.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/1/17185746/ted-nugent-parkland-shooting-survivors-nra

.......................................................

Shocking but true. Ted Nugent has shit for brains.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/1/17185746/ted-nugent-parkland-shooting-survivors-nra

 

Ingraham got her ass kicked by Hogg and her show has shed advertisers like crazy.  Blindsided her really, and she took a week off her show.   To get back at decedent people, Rosanne's new show was already picked up for another year.  Roseanne has however, spread the word about the Gathering Storm.

Meanwhile, Coulter has coined a phrase; Former Trumpers.

Quote

Coulter: Yes. This is a different category you’re seeing now: Former Trumpers. That should be terrifying to the president. Maybe he’ll actually keep his promises.

Former Trumpers, are a new category of deplorable?  Sounds about right. 

 

[OldGimletEye]

2 hours ago, LongRider said:

Meanwhile, Coulter has coined a phrase; Former Trumpers.

Former Trumpers, are a new category of deplorable?  Sounds about right. 

Yeah, well Ann, you helped to create the monster and this mess. And shouldn’t be allowed out of this mess cause allegedly Trump betrayed the conservatism. You walked right into this fire sac dumbly and gleefully and ought not to be allowed to just sashay right on out, without taking a severe drubbing.

[LongRider]

21 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

Yeah, well Ann, you helped to create the monster and this mess. And shouldn’t be allowed out of this mess cause allegedly Trump betrayed the conservatism. You walked right into this fire sac dumbly and gleefully and ought not to be allowed to just sashay right on out, without taking a severe drubbing.

She does seem pretty sad that Trump hasn't built that big beautiful wall yet. May she continue to be disappointed. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

10 hours ago, dmc515 said:

So things are heating up in the Middle East.  Whowouldathought, right?  Erdogan called Bibi a terrorist and Israel a terrorist state:

While this is maybe not US politics proper, there's no general IR thread.  Also, the protests that started all of this were based on Trump's announcement to move the embassy to Jerusalem.

Goes there. 

[all swedes are racist]

nvm

[Mlle. Zabzie]

@OldGimletEye I actually think you are correct about the market being in a continual state of disequilibrium because of imperfect information. 

Separately on your point on share buybacks, one thing to keep in mind is the role of the activist investor. Their theory of course is that shareholders can use excess capital more efficiently to get a higher return than the corporation can (I think of this as the libertarian view of corporate governance). I believe (though don’t have time to find the links to literature, apologies) that this isn’t necessarily borne out in practice. However, I do think there is a body of literature out there that claims that synergies from M and A are often overstated and that ROIs are often lower than initially predicted (again, apologies for lack of linkage - running around on my phone). Anecdotally right now from my clients valuations are getting into nosebleed territory for even crappy targets particularly in a rising interest rate environment. Which means if I were a CEO unless there was a clear thesis I wouldn’t necessarily be using excess capital for M and A. A lot of businesses actually don’t have a lot of capex. And as you say they aren’t necessarily going to expand unless there is good cause. This all goes back to...share buybacks. 

[Martell Spy]

Quote

 

I think a lot of people on the left or at liberal institutions felt like, “We’re not getting what’s going on in real America,” which is why we saw 10,000 pieces about going to diners and talking to Trump voters. I think it’s led to more openness to higher conservative voices at mainstream institutions. But the irony seems to me to be—if this is an irony—that these people are not pro-Trump conservatives. They are anti-Trump conservatives. I think the thinking probably is among people who decide these things, that there are no really smart pro-Trump arguments. So I’m wondering what you think of the way many of these liberal institutions have reacted, which is to say, “We need to hear more conservative voices,” and at the same time to say, “But we’re not going to bring in Trump supporters.”

I think the Trump phenomenon creates a basic dilemma for journalistic institutions that aspire to have diversity of opinion and don’t want to just be defined as liberal institutions, which is that, as you say, most of the conservative commentariat—independent of their specific policy views—was anti-Trump. … So wherever you go looking for ideological diversity, whatever piece of the conservative worldview you think your readers should hear more from, you are going to have a dearth of pro-Trump columnists. Now, it doesn’t mean that they can’t be found. There are some smart pro-Trump columnists, although I do think even the smartest ones end up defending Trumpism as an abstraction more than the man himself.

 

The Pope and the President
New York Times columnist Ross Douthat sees the parallels—and pitfalls—of the populist leaders.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/04/new-york-times-columnist-ross-douthat-on-pope-francis-trump-and-conservative-writers.html

[Fragile Bird]

In case no one noticed, China responded to US tariffs with tariffs of their own, in particular 25% on US frozen pork. Many of the items are food items, from almonds to apples to wine and ginseng, with a 15% tariff on 120 products and a 25% tariff on eight.

The markets have noticed, of course, the Dow down 535 at the moment, down to 23,568, almost right down to that 23,500 soft support level I have previously mentioned, so now it looks like that 22,500 firm support level is likely.

[Guest]

Schools closed in Oklahoma and Kentucky as teachers go on strike.

It will be interesting to see what happens. Here in Oklahoma, teachers are demanding a $10,000 pay raise for teachers and a $5,000 raise for support staff over the next 3 years, along with $200 million in education funding. The legislature passed a bill last week giving a $6,100 raise to teachers, a $1,250 raise to support staff and $50 million for education funding, but approved an amendment repealing a key provision for funding the increases by doing away with a raise in hotel and motel taxes. Then they promptly went into recess, so if this strike continues keeps momentum going, Fallin will have to call an emergency session to further address their concerns.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I’m surprised the thread has been so quiet this morning despite Trump’s Twitterstorm. It makes me wonder if Trump outrage fatigue is setting in (not here specifically). I was listening to some reporting over the weekend and a lot of media insiders were saying that it’s set in with Congressional Republicans. That’s why they often avoid responding to questions at this point. There’s nothing new for them to say.  

[Fragile Bird]

Well, the intra-day Dow level just dropped through the soft support level, going below 23,500 briefly, then bouncing back to 23,525 very quickly, about 580 down. The important number will be the closing number at the end of the day. eta they said the day's low has been 23,465. I missed that one. Back down to 23,475 now.

14 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Schools closed in Oklahoma and Kentucky as teachers go on strike.

It will be interesting to see what happens. Here in Oklahoma, teachers are demanding a $10,000 pay raise for teachers and a $5,000 raise for support staff over the next 3 years, along with $200 million in education funding. The legislature passed a bill last week giving a $6,100 raise to teachers, a $1,250 raise to support staff and $50 million for education funding, but approved an amendment repealing a key provision for funding the increases by doing away with a raise in hotel and motel taxes. Then they promptly went into recess, so if this strike continues keeps momentum going, Fallin will have to call an emergency session to further address their concerns.

CNN interviewed a number of Oklahoma teachers this weekend. Their pay level is 49th out of 50 states (they didn't say who #50 is, I'm guessing Mississippi). 

That $6,100 increase brings average salaries to $42 k per year, but the interviewed teachers don't seem to be making $36 k a year, not when they are clearing $1,200 to $1,400 a month. How the hell do you live on $1,400 a month? All the teachers had 3, 4 or 5 other jobs in order to survive. One teacher had a grass cutting service on the side, which brought in more money.

The story noted that in order to give the pay raise, Oklahoma raised taxes for the first time in 20 years. How the hell do you run a state without raising taxes in 20 years? And in the meantime, they give the biggest tax breaks and subsidies to oil companies.

In Ontario if you have the years of service your teachers' pension is $40,000 a year, although I think the formula was changed a number of years ago so future retirees will make less.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Fragile Bird said:

CNN interviewed a number of Oklahoma teachers this weekend. Their pay level is 49th out of 50 states (they didn't say who #50 is, I'm guessing Mississippi). 

That $6,100 increase brings average salaries to $42 k per year, but the interviewed teachers don't seem to be making $36 k a year, not when they are clearing $1,200 to $1,400 a month. How the hell do you live on $1,400 a month? All the teachers had 3, 4 or 5 other jobs in order to survive. One teacher had a grass cutting service on the side, which brought in more money.

The story noted that in order to give the pay raise, Oklahoma raised taxes for the first time in 20 years. How the hell do you run a state without raising taxes in 20 years? And in the meantime, they give the biggest tax breaks and subsidies to oil companies.

I think either Mississippi or South Dakota is number 50 in teachers' salaries. 

And the not raising taxes in 20 years thing is not entirely accurate. The legislature has raised taxes on things like "sin" taxes (cigarettes and booze), sales taxes and user fees like for hotels and motels.

But, for stuff like income taxes, or production taxes for oil and gas, this is accurate, because of a 1992 referendum that required a supermajority of 75% to raise those kinds of taxes. Coincidentally enough, that referendum didn't also require a 75% supermajority to CUT taxes, so the legislature has been happily hacking away at state income taxes and production taxes for years now.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

18 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

CNN interviewed a number of Oklahoma teachers this weekend. Their pay level is 49th out of 50 states (they didn't say who #50 is, I'm guessing Mississippi). 

That $6,100 increase brings average salaries to $42 k per year, but the interviewed teachers don't seem to be making $36 k a year, not when they are clearing $1,200 to $1,400 a month. How the hell do you live on $1,400 a month? All the teachers had 3, 4 or 5 other jobs in order to survive. One teacher had a grass cutting service on the side, which brought in more money.

Even if we assume OK is a state that will just about anybody be a teacher if they have a four year degree, $36k is offensive. And that leads to a bigger problem. Why would anyone go to OK to teach after they graduate when they could go elsewhere and make close to double that.

Quote

The story noted that in order to give the pay raise, Oklahoma raised taxes for the first time in 20 years. How the hell do you run a state without raising taxes in 20 years? And in the meantime, they give the biggest tax breaks and subsidies to oil companies.

The Republican party has not been interested in good governance, by and large, since the days of H.W. He knew he’d take a huge political hit after he raised taxes following a campaign promise in which he said he never would, but it was more important to him to do the right thing for the country than to do the right thing politically for him. Since then, few Republicans have followed his example.

And I just checked. The Dow is now down 750, more than 3%. And China has a lot more to go after on the agricultural front if they want. If they put a tariff on soy beans, my home state is screwed, as is the entire Midwest.  

[Guest]

The DOW and S&P500 are both down nearly 3% so far today. I've been going back and forth with my financial planner overseeing my retirement accounts since before the market went gangbusters in January and he keeps talking me off the ledge, but I'm becoming more and more convinced we're heading for a severe economic downturn within the next year or 18 months.

Of course, I've been Chicken Little-ing it since I'm basically a child of the Great Recession: graduated from college, worked for a year and a half and then lost everything when the economy tanked and have spent the last decade crawling out of that hole. 

So yeah, just getting those fears off my chest...and hoping that I'll actually have the opportunity to retire someday.

[Paladin of Ice]

16 hours ago, dmc515 said:

So things are heating up in the Middle East.  Whowouldathought, right?  Erdogan called Bibi a terrorist and Israel a terrorist state:

While this is maybe not US politics proper, there's no general IR thread.  Also, the protests that started all of this were based on Trump's announcement to move the embassy to Jerusalem.

What's more, with the announcement that Trump is looking to cut off aid money meant to rebuild areas of Syria and Iraq that ISIS held and prematurely pull out the US presence, we should all be prepared for further loss of soft power influence and a continuation of the conditions that make a lot of people join terrorist groups in the first place. Trump has also been quick to toot his own horn about defeating ISIS, (never mind how he complained in the final debate with Clinton about the fact that it was taking place on the same day that the assault on Mosul was starting and how unfair that was to him, and how all he had to do was not screw up a plan already in progress, which he is going to do his best to do) but oddly silent about their increasing presence in Afghanistan.

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

I’m surprised the thread has been so quiet this morning despite Trump’s Twitterstorm. It makes me wonder if Trump outrage fatigue is setting in (not here specifically). I was listening to some reporting over the weekend and a lot of media insiders were saying that it’s set in with Congressional Republicans. That’s why they often avoid responding to questions at this point. There’s nothing new for them to say.  

Honestly, I can't blame anybody for not feeling the need to jump on everything Agent Orange does at this point. We know he's going to say and do stupid, obviously counterproductive things. We know the right wing will find a way to excuse it and adore him by (usually falsely) saying Obama and Clinton did the same things. (Never mind that they thought Obama was the worst thing to happen to America and wanted to lock Clinton up, but adore Trump when he is, according to them, acting in the same way. Odd, that...) Half the time he'll gutlessly back off from whatever stupid and obviously counterproductive thing he said, the other half he'll double down and try to reach a lower level of being stupid and counterproductive, forcing us to react accordingly.

What's the point? On some other forums where I participate on political threads I do it largely because most of the posters are younger than I am and can use the political education, but what purpose does it serve to get jerked around and react to everything dumbass thing that comes out of his mouth? I'm going to do what I can to work against his horrible designs from the country, as I imagine most people here are going to do, and anybody willing to change their mind about supporting him is likely either going through or has already gone through that process by this point. Preaching to the choir isn't going to help it along.

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

Well, the intra-day Dow level just dropped through the soft support level, going below 23,500 briefly, then bouncing back to 23,525 very quickly, about 580 down. The important number will be the closing number at the end of the day. eta they said the day's low has been 23,465. I missed that one. Back down to 23,475 now.

The number still aren't looking good, but it looks like it's going to ease up a little from a little while ago, when it looked like there was a legitimate chance for the Dow to end the day down 750 points or so and the S&P down more than 3%. Now it looks like it'll only be somewhere between 600-700 for the Dow and maybe 2.75% for the S&P.

It sure is a good thing trade wars are easy to win and we have such a great businessman for a president who knows better than to do things like publicly shit all over one of the biggest retailers/market places in the country, or I might be worried right now.

[Fragile Bird]

47 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

The DOW and S&P500 are both down nearly 3% so far today. I've been going back and forth with my financial planner overseeing my retirement accounts since before the market went gangbusters in January and he keeps talking me off the ledge, but I'm becoming more and more convinced we're heading for a severe economic downturn within the next year or 18 months.

Of course, I've been Chicken Little-ing it since I'm basically a child of the Great Recession: graduated from college, worked for a year and a half and then lost everything when the economy tanked and have spent the last decade crawling out of that hole. 

So yeah, just getting those fears off my chest...and hoping that I'll actually have the opportunity to retire someday.

Even with the drop, the market is still up 30% over the last year and a half. I assume you did not just start saving? The thing is, we should return to normal markets over time, meaning we'll have 5 to 10% corrections every year or two and a bear, 20% or more down, every 4 years or so. You have to learn to ignore the ups and downs. And your portfolio should be diversified, the old "don't have all your eggs in one basket". As you get older, you have to have larger portions in lower risks investments. I have a big chunk in cash, for example, which hurts because interest rates are low but cheers me up at times like these. I also bite the bullet and take profits when stuff is doing well, I thought I'd own Facebook for years, but I made a tidy profit and decided to sell when the bad news came out. But I know I have some fantastic mutual funds that I have not sold that did so well because of the FANG stocks that have been hit so hard right now. However, they are not a huge part of my portfolio.

Trump's attacks on Amazon are going to hurt everyone's pension plans, I bet.

[Zorral]

That it was Easter and Passover at the same time, and that the weather, at least here, until today, was decent for the first time in weeks, has more to do with less expressed outrage.  People were gratefully away from all the bs for a bit of time, perhaps?  I know I always am, when that happens.  There's so much nobody can keep up with it all.  But the market's shaky condition these last few days will surely keep everyone on their toes, or maybe more likely, their typing digits.