US Politics: March Madness

[Paladin of Ice]

1 hour ago, Paladin of Ice said:

The number still aren't looking good, but it looks like it's going to ease up a little from a little while ago, when it looked like there was a legitimate chance for the Dow to end the day down 750 points or so and the S&P down more than 3%. Now it looks like it'll only be somewhere between 600-700 for the Dow and maybe 2.75% for the S&P.

 

Ha! Well, I'm no Nostradamus. Thankfully it was awful but not quite as bad as it looked like it was going to be.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 hours ago, Paladin of Ice said:

Honestly, I can't blame anybody for not feeling the need to jump on everything Agent Orange does at this point. We know he's going to say and do stupid, obviously counterproductive things. We know the right wing will find a way to excuse it and adore him by (usually falsely) saying Obama and Clinton did the same things. (Never mind that they thought Obama was the worst thing to happen to America and wanted to lock Clinton up, but adore Trump when he is, according to them, acting in the same way. Odd, that...) Half the time he'll gutlessly back off from whatever stupid and obviously counterproductive thing he said, the other half he'll double down and try to reach a lower level of being stupid and counterproductive, forcing us to react accordingly.

What's the point? On some other forums where I participate on political threads I do it largely because most of the posters are younger than I am and can use the political education, but what purpose does it serve to get jerked around and react to everything dumbass thing that comes out of his mouth? I'm going to do what I can to work against his horrible designs from the country, as I imagine most people here are going to do, and anybody willing to change their mind about supporting him is likely either going through or has already gone through that process by this point. Preaching to the choir isn't going to help it along.

I get not reacting to every controversial or stupid thing he says. There’s no benefit to that. I was just a little surprised to see the thread dead given how much was going on this morning.

[Fragile Bird]

I see the Donald wants a new NAFTA deal outline within two weeks, which seems rather unlikely. Just imagine the turmoil if he announces he going to pull the plug. And I don’t care if stuff is written into laws, Congress could dismantle everything pretty savagely if it wanted to. That might be a parting gift from people who think they’ll lose in the midterms anyway.

There was an interesting analysis about US allies doing meaningless things in order to appease Trump, and how annoyed countries are getting that they have to do so. I think it was Korea (might be Japan, I’m not at home to check) announces they were doubling the number of US cars that could be sold in the country from 25,000 to 50,000 in response to Trump’s complaints. However, the highest number sold in any year was less than 12,000, but it gave Trump the ability to say he had wrested concessions from them.

In other market news, the shares of Humana rose sharply in a very bad market because of rumors Walmart was either going to take them over or cut a deal of some kind, in order to offer  a broad range of medical services in their stores. Walmart, the one stop store for all your needs!

[Zorral]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/falsely-accused-parkland-school-shooter-sues-alex-jones-infowars-for-defamation?ref=scroll

Quote

Marcel Fontaine, who was falsely declared a suspect in the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting by conspiracy-theorist website InfoWars, is now suing Alex Jones for more than a million dollars. . . .

. . . . 

“The core of the lawsuit—that InfoWars falsely accused Mr. Fontaine of being the shooter—states a very plausible claim for defamation and intentional infliction of emotional distress,” White told The Daily Beast. “The problem is that the complaint buries that core wrong into a general attack on InfoWars and Alex Jones and their fans.”

“That might make for good press, but it’s dangerous,” White continued. “Texas has a very strong anti-SLAPP law. If InfoWars can frame the lawsuit as being more broadly about the content of its speech in general (or about the speech of third-party commenters, for whom InfoWars is not responsible under Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act), the plaintiff faces a real risk of an anti-SLAPP ruling.”

 

[lokisnow]

6 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

 

And I just checked. The Dow is now down 750, more than 3%. And China has a lot more to go after on the agricultural front if they want. If they put a tariff on soy beans, my home state is screwed, as is the entire Midwest.  

If china puts a tariff on soybeans, democrats should definitely win the indiana and missouri senate seats, and probably flip the nebraska seat as well.

the Pork tariffs should be putting some pressure on several senators, but if they hit beef, Ted Cruz is screwed.

all politics is local right? nothing is local like tariffs that target you and yours.

 

[Altherion]

There's a fairly long article at Politico wherein a reported from Indiana goes on what he labels "My 72-Hour Safari in Clinton Country". It's mostly intended to be comedy -- a riff on the coastal reporters who, after the election, went on similar trips to places where people voted for Trump -- but it's more sad than funny and mostly because of the subject matter rather than the reporter. For example:

Quote

Now, though, the bubble seems to have closed back over Clinton Country. What voters here have learned about their fellow citizens in states such as my own Indiana has left them discouraged and dispirited that they share a nation with such benighted, gullible voters. Their sentiments were expressed succinctly by their exiled candidate recently in a March speech in Mumbai. “If you look at the map of the United States, there is all that red in the middle, places where Trump won,” Clinton said. “What that map doesn’t show you is that I won the places that own two thirds of America’s gross domestic product. I won the places that are optimistic, diverse, dynamic, moving forward. And his whole campaign, Make America Great Again, was looking backwards.”

I asked Early, the SoulCyclist, what she made of the parts of the country that, as her candidate suggested, were “looking backwards.” Had she ever visited? No, Early told me.

“But I’ve flown over it,” she said.

Hearing herself, she paused, and offered a disclaimer.

“I am in a bubble,” she told me. “But now, I don’t want to get out of it.”

 

[lokisnow]

32 minutes ago, Altherion said:

There's a fairly long article at Politico wherein a reported from Indiana goes on what he labels "My 72-Hour Safari in Clinton Country". It's mostly intended to be comedy -- a riff on the coastal reporters who, after the election, went on similar trips to places where people voted for Trump -- but it's more sad than funny and mostly because of the subject matter rather than the reporter. For example:

 

for an April Fools joke, that's pretty good, the idea that a midwestern paper would allow a reporter to rack up a $5000 meal tab over the course of one weekend's reportage (given all the places mentioned) is indeed hilarious.

[Shryke]

3 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

I see the Donald wants a new NAFTA deal outline within two weeks, which seems rather unlikely. Just imagine the turmoil if he announces he going to pull the plug. And I don’t care if stuff is written into laws, Congress could dismantle everything pretty savagely if it wanted to. That might be a parting gift from people who think they’ll lose in the midterms anyway.

Why would they do that though? They don't want to kill NAFTA. That's basically just Trump and the people dumb enough to actually believe that populist crap. Leadership has zero interest in the idea purely on it's own.

[Shryke]

1 hour ago, lokisnow said:

If china puts a tariff on soybeans, democrats should definitely win the indiana and missouri senate seats, and probably flip the nebraska seat as well.

the Pork tariffs should be putting some pressure on several senators, but if they hit beef, Ted Cruz is screwed.

all politics is local right? nothing is local like tariffs that target you and yours.

 

Yup. The Chinese aren't stupid like Trump is. Just like the Europeans, they are targeting Republican party politicians with sanctions to put pressure on them to stop this shit.

[DMC]

Interesting analysis at 538 looking at every election since Trump's inauguration and measuring Dems' performance against the income, education, and Obama vs. Clinton margins in each district/state to examine whether Dems are performing better in "working class" or "affluent suburban areas."  The answer is while Dems have actually performed slightly better in working class areas, there is wide variation and none of these relationships are significant:

Quote

A null finding like this can be frustrating, but it’s still valuable information, not least because it helps dispel narratives like the “suburban surge” that have little grounding in reality. One thing the data does show is that Democrats are capable of winning districts of all kinds, even if it doesn’t always work out that way. That should reassure the party that there may not be a wrong answer when choosing which types of districts to target — at least when it comes to demographics. (Some other factor, such as candidate quality, may better explain when Democrats overperform and when they don’t.) For those of you thirsty for a grand conclusion to draw from this exercise, here it is: Be skeptical of any argument that claims to know one correct path forward for Democrats.

 

[IheartIheartTesla]

So the reason (or one of them, at least) for this analysis is supposedly to determine how the DNC should allocate limited resources in which kinds of districts. If that is the case, I have a feeling a more 'decision-making' analysis should be used that introduces costs (and other resources) into modeling. Many companies and universities do this all the time, even if it includes intangibles (by applying some sort of value to them). Research of this kind has taken off in recent years, I wonder if political parties have at all caught up with the current state of affairs. 

[Maithanet]

8 hours ago, dmc515 said:

Interesting analysis at 538 looking at every election since Trump's inauguration and measuring Dems' performance against the income, education, and Obama vs. Clinton margins in each district/state to examine whether Dems are performing better in "working class" or "affluent suburban areas."  The answer is while Dems have actually performed slightly better in working class areas, there is wide variation and none of these relationships are significant:

It is reasonable to wonder which sort of areas Democrats should be targeting, and 538 breaks them into two broad categories:

Educated Suburbs - Until 2016, these areas were considered Republican, but they're a bad fit for Trump's proud "America First" nonsense.  Clinton either defeated Trump or came close in 2016.  Examples of this are California's Orange County and GA-6. 

Formerly Blue Working Class Districts - These are districts that Obama won but Trump cleaned up in.  The question is whether these voters have switched to being Republican or if the Democrats can bring them back with a more economic, working class message (Clinton was too urban elitist to be a good fit in these districts).  Examples include PA-18 and IA-1. 

While it is reasonable to ask whether Democrats have more of an opportunity in one or the other district, this isn't an either/or choice.  Obviously Democrats should be (and are) trying to win both these districts, and frankly Democrats have the resources to cast a very wide net and contest most of the country.  But there are plenty of vulnerable Republicans in each of these categories. 

[Zorral]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/03/mueller-paul-manafort-probe-rosenstein-approves-497701

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/03/politics/mueller-manafort-rosenstein-memo/index.html

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/381369-doj-authorized-mueller-to-investigate-allegations-manafort

Also in the UK Guardian -- hmmm, will Sinclair News be covering this fake news?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/apr/03/mueller-memo-paul-manafort-rosenstein-russia-collusion-investigation-scope

Quote

 

Manafort has challenged Mueller’s authority and asked a judge to dismiss an indictment charging him with crimes including money laundering conspiracy and false statements.

He said Mueller, who was assigned to investigate potential coordination between Russia and the Trump campaign, overstepped his bounds by charging him for conduct that occurred years before the 2016 election.

But in their new filing, prosecutors revealed that Rosenstein – who appointed Mueller after the attorney general, Jeff Sessions, recused himself, over contacts with Russians during the election campaign – wrote a memo last August that outlined the scope of Mueller’s appointment.

The memo, which remains redacted in parts, said that Mueller was empowered to investigate allegations that Manafort “committed a crime or crimes by colluding with Russian government officials” to interfere with the presidential election.

None of the charges Manafort faces alleges coordination with the Kremlin, and Manafort’s attorneys had used that point to argue that Mueller exceeded his authority by accusing him of financial crimes and acting as an unregistered foreign agent on behalf of Ukrainian interests.

But Monday’s filing appears to undercut that argument. In addition to authorizing the Russia collusion investigation of Manafort, Rosenstein also authorized Mueller to investigate any crimes related to payments Manafort received from the Ukrainian government under former president Viktor Yanukovych.

 

 

[Red Tiger]

A hypothetical for you dudes and dudettes.

Now, several years ago on 24 season 5, President Charles Logan was part of a larger conspiracy involving nerve gas and a false flag operation to blame Russian separatists for the gas. In the process of executing this plan, one of Logan's guys had ex-president David Palmer assassinated. Logan didn't want this, but he did cover it up.

Now, Logan's downfall and arrest came, when his wife secretly recorded an audio-file in which he admitted to covering up Palmer's death and it was sent to the Attorney General, one of the few guys in his administration who was not corrupt.

Now, if this same scenario happened today, with the audio-file and everything, would Trump get away with it?

[Fragile Bird]

It's always an issue whether or not a special prosecutor should pursue other crimes uncovered in the course of their investigation. From the prosecutor's side, how can you walk away from crimes you've discovered?

Lol, if the Trump administration appoints a special prosecutor to investigate Clinton's collusion with the Russians during the election campaign (don't be surprised, now, Trump keeps asking for one) and they stumble across information about a Benghazi cover-up, do you think that won't be followed up.

It will be an interesting decision by the court. If he loses, I bet Manafort appeals as far as he can.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

59 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

It is reasonable to wonder which sort of areas Democrats should be targeting, and 538 breaks them into two broad categories:

Educated Suburbs - Until 2016, these areas were considered Republican, but they're a bad fit for Trump's proud "America First" nonsense.  Clinton either defeated Trump or came close in 2016.  Examples of this are California's Orange County and GA-6. 

Formerly Blue Working Class Districts - These are districts that Obama won but Trump cleaned up in.  The question is whether these voters have switched to being Republican or if the Democrats can bring them back with a more economic, working class message (Clinton was too urban elitist to be a good fit in these districts).  Examples include PA-18 and IA-1. 

While it is reasonable to ask whether Democrats have more of an opportunity in one or the other district, this isn't an either/or choice.  Obviously Democrats should be (and are) trying to win both these districts, and frankly Democrats have the resources to cast a very wide net and contest most of the country.  But there are plenty of vulnerable Republicans in each of these categories. 

I think the burbs are the way to go, though I agree that you should target both. Blue collar white voters are leaving the Democratic party in droves primarily over the issue that Trump championed, immigration, and in general because of their stances on social issues. It’s hard to see how Democrats can recapture their votes if they’re dead set on pursuing more generous immigration and social policies. These are the same voters who get angry when you bring up the topic of white privilege. It’s hard to see how you’ll get them back in our current political climate.

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I think the burbs are the way to go, though I agree that you should target both. Blue collar white voters are leaving the Democratic party in droves primarily over the issue that Trump championed, immigration, and in general because of their stances on social issues. It’s hard to see how Democrats can recapture their votes if they’re dead set on pursuing more generous immigration and social policies. These are the same voters who get angry when you bring up the topic of white privilege. It’s hard to see how you’ll get them back in our current political climate.

Of course, Democrats won PA-18 (which Trump won +20) and lost GA-6 (which Trump won +1).  Obviously no two races are exactly identical, but I think it's really dangerous to dismiss blue collar former democrats as a lost cause.  If Republicans can count on winning PA, MI, IA and WI, the Presidential map gets a great deal easier for them, not to mention the Senate.  And I don't see how Democrats compete in those states without at least a competitive showing amongst blue collar white voters. 

[Zorral]

The teachers' walking out might be a sign of something-or-other that points to the future?

But -- more than likely -- that point won't be the Dem party per se, but local candidates of all kinds, who haven't been in politics or office before, but are more than fed up with everything that both parties have colluded in, from the crumbling infrastructure, to education, to, of course, the dangers of terrorist acts against students and teachers in our educational institutions from pre-school through university, the state of water safety -- and guess what? a loss of 17% of pig farmers' market.  And, of course, #MeToo.

 

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

37 minutes ago, Red Tiger said:

A hypothetical for you dudes and dudettes.

Now, several years ago on 24 season 5, President Charles Logan was part of a larger conspiracy involving nerve gas and a false flag operation to blame Russian separatists for the gas. In the process of executing this plan, one of Logan's guys had ex-president David Palmer assassinated. Logan didn't want this, but he did cover it up.

Now, Logan's downfall and arrest came, when his wife secretly recorded an audio-file in which he admitted to covering up Palmer's death and it was sent to the Attorney General, one of the few guys in his administration who was not corrupt.

Now, if this same scenario happened today, with the audio-file and everything, would Trump get away with it?

Ryan, McConnell, Huckabee-Sanders et al.: “President Trump is not a traditional politician and he’s still new to this. He didn’t know that you couldn’t use nerve gas to create a false flag operation, and he didn’t know you couldn’t cover it up, as well as the alleged murder of a former president. This is a nothing burger of a story and we will not answer any further questions on the matter. President Trump is a strong leader who is forcefully advancing his Make America Great Again agenda. Fake news like this insults the intelligence of the American public. Next question?”

[Week]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Ryan, McConnell, Huckabee-Sanders et al.: “President Trump is not a traditional politician and he’s still new to this. He didn’t know that you couldn’t use nerve gas to create a false flag operation, and he didn’t know you couldn’t cover it up, as well as the alleged murder of a former president. This is a nothing burger of a story and we will not answer any further questions on the matter. President Trump is a strong leader who is forcefully advancing his Make America Great Again agenda. Fake news like this insults the intelligence of the American public. Next question?”

It's really divisive and an indictment of where the fake news media is today that you would even think it was appropriate to ask such an insulting question.